Research

Classified loans rose from 5.9% of loans in 2023 to 19.9% at Dec-2025; the bank kept BDT 3.3bn of a BDT 13.6bn required provision under a BB deferral, the auditor qualified its opinion, profit fell to BDT 7m and the shares moved to DSE's Z category in April 2026.

Trust Bank's reported classified-loan ratio fell from 6.36% to 4.39% in 2025, but the bank wrote off BDT 10.9bn, special-mention loans rose from BDT 7.2bn to BDT 27.5bn, and the auditor says a significant proportion of classified borrowers were reported as unclassified after special rescheduling. Interest paid took 89% of interest income in 2025 and 98% in H1 2026; government securities and their income now carry the bank. Consolidated CRAR is 12.76% against 12.5% required.

Loans tied to the old sponsor era turned bad in 2024. Interest on those loans has since moved to suspense, so net interest income fell to BDT -22.1bn in 2025 and to BDT -15.4bn in H1 2026. Book equity of BDT 5.7bn at Dec-2025 sits against a provision gap of BDT 215.9bn (our sum of four notes) that BB has allowed the bank to defer.

Dhaka Bank cut classified loans from 5.33% to 3.77% of loans in 2025 and fully provided the BDT 5.0bn shortfall BB had let it defer, but special mention loans more than doubled to 6.6% of the book, cost of fund reached 9.65%, net interest income fell to BDT 1.2bn in H1 2026, and its Tk1,057 crore paid-up capital is 47.2% below the Tk2,000 crore line for cash dividends.

Fair value range BDT 9–29 (base 17); the price of 23.5 sits in the upper half. Jamuna now holds more government securities than loans and earns its profit on the gap between a 6–7% deposit cost and 9–10% bond yields, with equity of 6% of assets. Our sustainable ROE after the perpetual-bond coupon, 11.7%, is close to its FY2022–25 median on the same basis (10.6%) and well below a 16% cost of equity.

Fair value range BDT 9–25 (base 16) against a price of 17.3, from residual income on adjusted book. Deposit share gains, the Q4 provisioning habit and the Tk2,000 crore dividend rule decide value.

Fair value range BDT 13–34 (base 22) against a price of 21.3. Deposits grew 41% in a year at rising cost, and paid-up capital of Tk1,213 crore bars cash dividends under the new Tk2,000 crore rule.

Fair value range BDT 6–19 (base 11) against a price of 17.0. The bond book now carries profit, net interest income is negative, and paid-up capital of Tk1,392 crore bars cash dividends until it reaches Tk2,000 crore.

Fair value range BDT 11–105 (base 53) against a price of 46.6. Current, savings and bills-payable balances are 79.5% of deposits; the gross NPL ratio of 9.2%, funding cost and the dividend rule decide value.

Fair value range BDT 20–40 (base 29); the price of 23.7 sits in the lower half. Its investment income now exceeds net interest income (gross loan interest is still larger); funding cost, asset quality and a dividend year without cash decide value.

Fair value range BDT 17–39 (base 30); the price of 42.9 is above the range. Deposits grew 21% in nine months and went into government bonds; yields on those bonds, rescheduled loans and the Tk2,000 crore cash-dividend rule decide value.

Fair value BDT 7–39 (base 18) against a price of 29.8. Net of funding cost, treasury earned 46% of FY2025 operating income; our sustainable ROE is 13% against the 19% the price implies.

Fair value BDT 7–39 (base 25) against a price of 29.4. Bond yields decide which end; a new rule bars cash dividends until paid-up capital reaches Tk2,000 crore.

Fair value BDT 18–73 (base 42) against a price of 67.5. How far ROE falls once bond yields normalise, from 18% in FY2026F toward our 14% sustainable level, decides where in the range value lies.

MTB's net interest income fell from BDT 7,867m in 2024 to 2,654m in 2025 and to BDT 677m in H1 2026 as interest expense reached 95% of interest income. Investment income is now 72% of operating income, gross NPL is 5.77% after an BDT 8.0bn write-off, CRAR is 13.55%, and paid-up capital of Tk1,211 crore after the 12% bonus bars cash dividends under SPCD Circular 06.

AB Bank pays more than ten taka of interest for every taka it earns, lost BDT 37.1bn in 2025 and BDT 16.3bn in the first half of 2026, and now runs on Bangladesh Bank liquidity support. This note sets out what the filings show.

Mercantile Bank, a private commercial bank listed since 2003, kept growing deposits through 2024-2025, but its classified-loan ratio jumped from 6.08% to 17.25% in 2024 and its spread business has almost disappeared. Profit now comes from government securities, and the 2025 accounts leave out Tk2,139.31 crore of required provisions with BB's permission. This note sets out the filings.

The Premier Bank's classified loans rose from 4.99% of loans in 2023 to 31.01% in 2025, and the bank lost BDT 9.79bn in 2025 even though Bangladesh Bank let it leave Tk9,799.26 crore of required provisions out of the accounts. Bangladesh Bank dissolved the sponsor board on 19-Aug-2025. This note sets out the filings.

NRBC Bank, set up by non-resident Bangladeshis, went from a 5.35% NPL ratio in 2023 to 17.17% in 2025 after Bangladesh Bank dissolved its sponsor board in March 2025. Its 2025 profit of BDT 330m exists because BB let it leave Tk1,006.11 crore of provisions out of the accounts. This note sets out the filings.

Bangladesh Bank let ONE Bank defer Tk3,903 crore of required provisions for 2025. Without that permission the auditor says equity would be minus Tk1,025 crore. Classified loans have risen from 5.3% to 19.6% of loans since 2017, the cost of fund is 10.06%, CRAR is 11.12% against a 12.5% requirement, and the shares are in the Z category after a second year without a dividend.

The government owns 90.19% of Rupali Bank. The bank pays more interest than it earns, books a thin profit only because the regulator lets it leave Tk14,014.48 crore of provisions out of the accounts, and lost BDT 6.4bn in the first half of 2026. This note sets out the filings.

Deposits grew 2.5 times in eight years and the classified-loan ratio stayed near 3%, but interest paid exceeded interest income in 2025, government-securities income was 104% of operating income, and paid-up capital of Tk679 crore bars cash dividends from FY2026 under Bangladesh Bank's new rule.

National Bank lost BDT 24.3bn in 2025 and BDT 22.9bn more in H1 2026. Equity is negative, interest paid is 5x interest earned, deposits are 28% below their 2021 level, and the bank runs on Bangladesh Bank-backed liquidity. This note sets out the filings.

Write-offs of BDT 21.5bn cut classified loans from 14.82% to 7.51% of loans in 2025 and the 2024 BB-deferred shortfall is gone, yet special mention loans rose to 14.8% of the book, interest expense exceeded interest income in H1 2026, and paid-up capital below Tk2,000 crore bars cash dividends from FY2026.

Profit after tax reached BDT 4,861m in 2025 and CRAR 15.54%, but net interest income fell 23% in H1 2026 as deposit costs rose, investment income is now 57% of operating income, and paid-up capital of Tk1,155 crore bars cash dividends from FY2026.