Shahjalal Islami Bank valuation report: fair value BDT 9–24.7 (Oct 2026)

A 74% Mudaraba payout and 4.5% NPI support fair value BDT 9–25; 2026 cash dividends are barred

Fair value range BDT 9–25 (base 16) against a price of 17.3, from residual income on adjusted book. Deposit share gains, the Q4 provisioning habit and the Tk2,000 crore dividend rule decide value.

Company · Initiation · 31 Oct 2026 · FY2025 annual + 9M 2026 (to 30-Sep-2026) · By AnalystBro Team · 17 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Fair value range
৳9–25
Base ৳16 · price in the upper half of the range · probability-weighted ৳16
Price ৳17.30
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Bear ৳9Base ৳16Bull ৳25Price ৳17.30

Residual income on adjusted book 80% (Ke 15.3%, ROE_s 13.0%, g 7.0%) · justified P/E 6.0x on normalised EPS 20% · × (1 − 3% resolution probability)

  • Residual income (80%)৳12
  • Justified P/E (20%)৳3
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 17.3
52-week range (weekly closes)BDT 16.0–18.6
Market capBDT 19.3bn
Shares outstanding1,113.0mn
Shariah compliantYes: full-fledged Islamic bank with a 3-member Shariah Supervisory Committee
Year end / latest period in model31 Dec / 9M 2026 (to 30-Sep-2026, unaudited)
P/B (bank book Sep-26)0.68x on BDT 25.42
P/E, ordinary EPS FY2026F / FY2027F4.7x / 3.9x
9M 2026 EPS (reported)BDT 4.01 (9M 2025: 3.52)
NPI ratio (Dec-25 / Dec-24)4.46% / 7.88%; required provision met, surplus BDT 16mn
Special mention investments (Dec-25)BDT 22.0bn (7.5% of investments)
CRAR / Tier-1 (Dec-25)14.19% / 9.94% vs 12.5% minimum
IDR (BB basis, Dec-25)81.59% vs 92% cap
Mudaraba share of deposits (Sep-26)72.4%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (FY2025)73.8% of distributable investment income
BB liquidity supportNone; BB refinance (EDF) only
Governance statusNormal: sponsor board, no BB-appointed board
Sponsors / institutions / public (Dec-25)43.1% / 24.5% / 32.5%
Beta, 2-yr weekly (DSEX / DSES, Blume)0.70 / 0.64; 0.80 used (floor)
Dividend FY202513% cash (BDT 1.30), record date 30-Apr-2026
Cash dividend from FY2026Barred until paid-up reaches Tk2,000 crore (now Tk1,113 crore)
Credit ratingECRL AA+ / ST-1, stable (Apr-2026)
Estimates
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Investment income22,19327,26928,19329,97032,433
Profit paid on deposits11,86514,22514,79415,68016,968
Net investment income10,32813,04413,40014,29015,465
Income from shares & securities1,9952,8424,3814,8855,175
Commission, exchange and brokerage3,8963,6324,0684,3934,745
Profit before provisions10,73114,41416,11417,34918,637
Total provisions5,2545,7745,9015,8566,034
Net profit after tax1,6893,6794,5965,4026,049
Net profit to ordinary shareholders1,2253,1794,0964,9025,549
EPS as reported (BDT)1.523.314.134.855.44
EPS to ordinary shareholders (BDT)1.102.863.684.404.99
Cash DPS (BDT)1.001.300.000.001.09
Book value per share (BDT)21.0523.0325.4129.8134.80
ROE to ordinary shareholders5.2%13.0%15.2%16.0%15.4%
Net investment margin3.6%4.0%3.6%3.4%3.4%
NPI ratio7.9%4.5%5.0%5.0%4.5%
CRAR14.3%14.2%14.4%14.4%14.4%
P/E at 17.3 (ordinary EPS)—6.1x4.7x3.9x3.5x
P/B at 17.3—0.8x0.7x0.6x0.5x

Fair value range BDT 9–25, base 16: the price of 17.3 implies a 14% sustainable ROE against our 13%

We put Shahjalal Islami Bank's (SJIBL) fair value at BDT 9–25 a share, base 16 (probability-weighted 16.2), against 17.3 on 29-Oct-2026. The base is 0.61x the September-2026 book of BDT 25.42 and 4.2x our FY2026F earnings to ordinary shareholders. SJIBL is one of the few listed Islamic banks still run normally: its 2025 accounts carry no Bangladesh Bank-deferred provision, its auditor's opinion is unmodified, and it needs no central-bank liquidity support [s1 p.235, p.259; s2 p.60].

Profit has recovered. Net profit was BDT 3.68bn in 2025 (EPS 3.31) after 1.69bn in 2024 [1 p.79], and 4.46bn in the nine months to September 2026 (EPS 4.01, against 3.52) [3 p.8]. Deposits rose 12.5% in nine months to BDT 352bn [3 p.6] while deposits at all Islamic banks fell 4.9% in the quarter to June 2026 [14]: savers are moving to Islamic banks they trust, and SJIBL is one.

The model has three things to get right. First, the fourth quarter: SJIBL has booked year-end provisions and tax true-ups that left Q4 profit at about zero or below in every year from 2022 to 2025 (BDT 75mn, −51mn, −2.36bn, −235mn) [s1 p.79; s9 p.8; s8 p.8; s3 p.8]. We keep that habit, so FY2026F profit is 4.60bn, only 138mn more than the nine months. Second, the Mudaraba payout: depositors received 73.8% of distributable investment income in 2025 [1 p.42]; each 5pp more costs about BDT 0.37 a share of value. Third, credit quality: special-mention investments jumped to 7.5% of the book [1 p.259]. Our base sustainable ROE (to ordinary shareholders, after the AT1 coupon) is 13.0%, the median of its own FY2021–25 ROE after the AT1 coupon. The price implies 13.8%, above our base.

Model update

  • Latest period in this model: the nine months to 30-Sep-2026 (un-audited, board 14-Oct-2026). All three 2026 quarters are in. The model will be updated when the FY2026 audited accounts are filed (around April 2027).
Exhibit 1SJIBL's price changed -6% in two years while the DSEX changed -5%
Index, Sep-2024 = 100
025.050.075.0100125Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26May-26Aug-26Oct-26
SHAHJABANKDSEXDSES (Shariah)
Data
Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jul-26Aug-26Sep-26Oct-26
SHAHJABANK100.0098.9097.3097.3096.20101.6099.5091.4090.80101.1098.4087.0091.4089.2094.6096.8096.2087.0092.4094.1095.1093.5093.50
DSEX100.0091.8090.8090.5089.3090.9089.0082.9085.5094.4096.5089.4085.0085.3090.0091.5091.8091.6098.90101.4098.8096.6094.60
DSES (Shariah)100.0094.3092.4093.7091.0093.2091.8083.3085.5094.0096.0087.2081.7081.0083.0084.2085.3085.6092.4095.0090.9088.3084.30
Source: DSE weekly closes via AnalystBro [12]; rebased to 100 in Sep-2024; unadjusted for the BDT 1.00 and 1.30 dividends · Weekly closes, every fifth week.
Exhibit 2We forecast ordinary EPS of BDT 3.68 in FY2026F rising to 4.99 in FY2028F
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Investment income22,19327,26928,19329,97032,433
Profit paid on deposits11,86514,22514,79415,68016,968
Net investment income10,32813,04413,40014,29015,465
Income from shares & securities1,9952,8424,3814,8855,175
Commission, exchange and brokerage3,8963,6324,0684,3934,745
Profit before provisions10,73114,41416,11417,34918,637
Total provisions5,2545,7745,9015,8566,034
Net profit after tax1,6893,6794,5965,4026,049
Net profit to ordinary shareholders1,2253,1794,0964,9025,549
EPS as reported (BDT)1.523.314.134.855.44
EPS to ordinary shareholders (BDT)1.102.863.684.404.99
Cash DPS (BDT)1.001.300.000.001.09
Book value per share (BDT)21.0523.0325.4129.8134.80
ROE to ordinary shareholders5.2%13.0%15.2%16.0%15.4%
Net investment margin3.6%4.0%3.6%3.4%3.4%
NPI ratio7.9%4.5%5.0%5.0%4.5%
CRAR14.3%14.2%14.4%14.4%14.4%
P/E at 17.3 (ordinary EPS)—6.1x4.7x3.9x3.5x
P/B at 17.3—0.8x0.7x0.6x0.5x
Source: AnalystBro model [17]; FY2024–25 from AR 2025 p.79 [1]
Exhibit 3The scenario range runs from BDT 9 to 25; the price of 17.3 sits above the base
510.015.020.025.030.0Residual income (80%)9.225.8Justified P/E (20%)10.623.0Blend × (1 − p resolution)924.7Price 17.3
Data
LowHigh
Residual income (80%)9.225.8
Justified P/E (20%)10.623.0
Blend × (1 − p resolution)9.024.7
Source: AnalystBro model [17]

Bulls say

  • Deposits grew 9.9% in Q3 2026 alone [s3 p.6; s4 p.6] as money left weaker Islamic banks; a flight to quality inside the segment keeps growth above the system.
  • Investment-income cash receipts were 111% of booked income in 9M 2026 [s3 p.8-9]: the profit is being collected, unlike at stressed Islamic peers.
  • Cost-to-income fell from 44.9% in 2021 to 32.3% in 2025 [1 p.80].

Bears say

  • Special-mention investments rose from BDT 3.9bn to 22.0bn in 2025 [1 p.259]; if they slip into classification, credit cost stays at 2%+ as in 2024–25.
  • Tier-1 is only 9.94% and CET1 8.30% [2 p.67]; growth plus the dividend rule may need new capital.
  • Sponsors' holding fell from 45.3% to 43.1% in 2025 and sponsor sales continued in 2026 [s2 p.66; s10].

What would change our view

  • FY2026 accounts: the size of the Q4 provision and tax true-up, and the classified and special-mention balances.
  • The FY2026 dividend: a stock dividend, an authorised-capital increase or a rights issue to reach Tk2,000 crore.
  • Mudaraba rates: whether SJIBL pays up to keep the deposits it won in 2026.

Islamic banks hold 17% of deposits, and five of them were merged with shareholders written to zero

Bangladesh's Islamic banks held BDT 3,793bn of deposits at June 2026, 17.2% of the BDT 22,104bn held by all scheduled banks, and their deposits fell 4.9% from BDT 3,989bn in March [14]. Fixed (term) deposits are 56% of the Islamic total and savings deposits 19% [14]. The segment is split. Five weak Shariah banks (First Security, Global, Social Islami, Union and EXIM) were merged into the state-backed Sammilito Islami Bank, and Bangladesh Bank set their net asset value at zero, so shareholders received nothing, as reported by The Financial Express and The Business Standard [s15; s16]; a writ against the merger was rejected by the High Court, reported by The Business Standard [16].

That is the backdrop for SJIBL, owned by a group of local business sponsors. It has no history of a Bangladesh Bank-dissolved board, its CRAR has stayed between 14.2% and 15.1% for five years and its NPI ratio between 4.4% and 7.9% [1 p.80]. With BDT 320.5bn of deposits at June 2026 [4 p.6] it held about 8.5% of all Islamic-bank deposits on BB's count [14]. In the model the sector shows up in two lines: deposit growth (Q3 2026 +9.9%, against a shrinking segment) and the Mudaraba distribution ratio, which SJIBL may need to raise to keep those deposits if trust returns to other Islamic banks.

Islamic banks work under the same Bank Company Act, capital and dividend rules as conventional banks, but lend through trade and lease contracts rather than loans, cap financing at 92% of deposits (the investment-deposit ratio, IDR) and share profit with Mudaraba depositors instead of paying fixed interest [s1 p.78, p.42]. Compensation charged on overdue investments and interest received from foreign banks are not counted as income; they go to charity through the Shahjalal Islami Bank Foundation [2 p.37].

Bai-Muajjal and HPSM are 73% of a BDT 293bn investment book; garments and textiles take 30%

SJIBL is a trade-finance and corporate bank. At December 2025 its investments (Islamic financing) were BDT 293bn: Bai-Muajjal (deferred-sale trade finance) 38.3%, hire purchase under Shirkatul Melk (HPSM, a lease-to-own partnership) 34.9%, Export Development Fund refinance 10.4%, Mudaraba 5.7%, Bai-Murabaha 4.6% and Bai-Salam 2.5% [1 p.259]. Garments (BDT 49.4bn) and cotton and textiles (39.3bn) are 30% of the book; trading is 37.5bn and food and beverage 20.7bn; 79% is booked in Dhaka division [1 p.175].

Import LCs of BDT 421bn (+13.3%) and export bills of 409bn (+22.5%) in 2025 drive commission and exchange income, and 34 exchange houses brought inward remittances of BDT 38.4bn (+12.4%) [1 p.80]. Remittances matter for the fee line and for deposits: they arrive as low-cost balances and as foreign currency the bank sells. Exchange gains fell to BDT 1.80bn in 2025 from 2.32bn as the taka stabilised, which is why commission, exchange and brokerage fell 6.8% to BDT 3.63bn [s2 p.71; s1 p.42]. In 9M 2026 the line rose 13.2% to BDT 3.03bn [3 p.8]; we forecast +12% for FY2026F and +8% a year after.

The franchise is small in branches (142) and agent outlets (143) and has 1.18mn customers [1 p.80]. Most deposits come from term and scheme savers and from companies: Mudaraba term deposits were BDT 125.5bn and Al-Wadeeah current and other accounts 83.5bn at December 2025, including 50.0bn of sundry (mainly LC-margin) deposits [2 p.61].

Exhibit 4Bai-Muajjal and HPSM are 73% of investments; HPSM grew 27% in 2025
BDT bnDec-24Dec-25Share Dec-25
Bai-Muajjal113.3112.30.4
HPSM (hire purchase)80.7102.30.3
Investment for EDF30.230.50.1
Mudaraba13.616.70.1
Bai-Murabaha14.713.40.0
Bai-Salam7.57.20.0
Other (Quard, Musharaka bills, Ijara, cards, Istisna'a, bills)9.010.70.0
Total268.9293.11.0
Source: Note 8a.7, AR 2025 p.259 [1]
Exhibit 5Trade, remittance and guarantees grew 12–23% in 2025
BDT bnFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Import business248.9254.8266.9371.9421.2
Export business191.9265.9247.5333.7408.7
Inward foreign remittance11.913.455.834.238.4
Commission, exchange and brokerage income2.243.492.863.903.63
Source: Five-year summary, AR 2025 p.80 [1]

Mudaraba deposits are 72% of funding and take 73.8% of distributable income; each 5pp of that ratio moves value about BDT 0.37

Mudaraba depositors are partners, not lenders: the bank invests their money and pays them a share of the income it earns, set first as a provisional rate and finalised at year end. In 2025 SJIBL paid Mudaraba depositors BDT 14.2bn, 73.80% of the distributable investment income from the Mudaraba fund [1 p.42]. Working back, distributable income was about 70.7% of total investment income, and applying that 70.7% share to earlier years gives implied ratios of 75.6%, 74.2%, 70.5% and 75.6% for 2021–24 [1 p.79] and 74.1% for 9M 2026 [3 p.8] (implied, not reported).

Because the payout follows income, we forecast profit paid as the distribution ratio × 70.7% of investment income: 74.5% for Q4 2026 and 74.0% after. Net investment income therefore moves with the investment yield and the book, not with a separate deposit rate. The resulting cost of deposits (4.44% in 2025, 3.19% in 2021) [1 p.80] is well below the system's 6.21% weighted deposit rate [14], which leaves SJIBL room to pay more if it must. In the bear case the ratio rises 5pp in FY2027–28 (to 79%, above the five-year range) as competition for Islamic deposits returns; in the bull case it falls 5pp.

Deposits grew 9.6% in 2025 and 12.5% in 9M 2026, to BDT 352bn [s1 p.79; s3 p.6]. Mudaraba deposits (savings, term and schemes) were 72.4% of the total at September 2026; Al-Wadeeah current and other accounts (the CASA analogue) were BDT 91.2bn [3 p.6]. We forecast 3% growth in Q4 2026 (Q4 2025: +2.8%), then 11% and 10%, taking deposits to BDT 443bn by FY2028F. Investments grow a little slower (3%, 10%, 9%) so the investment-deposit ratio keeps below the 92% cap (81.59% on BB's basis at December 2025) [1 p.78].

Exhibit 6Mudaraba deposits are 72% of the total; Al-Wadeeah balances rose to BDT 91bn
BDT bnDec-22Dec-23Dec-24Dec-25Sep-26
Mudaraba savings deposits36.939.742.847.051.0
Mudaraba term deposits86.897.9113.7125.5145.6
Other Mudaraba (schemes, special notice)50.147.151.152.358.3
Al-Wadeeah current & other48.360.073.683.591.2
Bills payable5.94.94.54.76.0
Total deposits228.0249.6285.7313.1352.2
Mudaraba share76.2%74.0%72.7%71.8%72.4%
Source: FS 2023 p.16 [6]; FS 2025 p.14 [2]; 9M 2026 p.6 [3]
Exhibit 7The implied distribution ratio has stayed between 70% and 76% (FY25 reported); we hold it at 74%
%
020.040.060.080.0ForecastFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Data
FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Distribution ratio75.6074.2070.5075.6073.8074.2074.0074.00
Source: AR 2025 p.42, p.79 [1]; 9M 2026 p.8 [3]; AnalystBro model [17]

Net investment income reaches BDT 15.5bn by FY2028F; Q4 provisions hold FY2026F profit to 4.6bn

Investment income rose 22.9% to BDT 27.3bn in 2025 as the yield on investments rose from 8.7% to 9.7% (bank-reported return on general investment 9.35%) [s1 p.79, p.80]. It has eased since: 9.2% annualised in 9M 2026 and 8.9% in Q3 [3 p.8]. Mark-ups on Bai-Muajjal and Murabaha are fixed at signing and reset only on renewal, so the yield follows market rates slowly. With the system lending rate at 12.13% (12.33% a year earlier) [14] and T-bills at 8.6–8.8% [13], we take 8.8% for Q4 2026, 8.7% in FY2027F and 8.6% in FY2028F.

Income from shares and securities, mostly government Islamic sukuk held at cost, rose to BDT 2.84bn in 2025 and 3.17bn in 9M 2026 [s2 p.71; s3 p.8]. Holdings rose to BDT 65.3bn (18.5% of deposits) by September [3 p.6]; we hold that share and a 7.0–7.3% yield, giving 5.2bn by FY2028F. Staff cost rose 15.9% in 9M 2026 [3 p.8]; we take +14% for FY2026F and +9% after. Zakat (2.58% of reserves, BDT 289mn) is expensed every year [s2 p.16; s1 p.250]. Cost-to-income stays near 32%.

The fourth quarter. In each of the last four years, profit for the full year was at or below the nine-month figure, because Q4 carried most of the year's provisions (BDT 503mn, 969mn, 4.17bn and 3.06bn for 2022–25) and a tax true-up [s1 p.79; s9 p.8; s8 p.8]. We set provisions and tax for the full year: credit cost 1.9% of average investments and a 55% tax rate. That leaves Q4 2026 provisions of BDT 2.92bn and Q4 profit of 138mn, against 1.35bn in Q3 [3 p.8]. The step down is the named driver (year-end provisioning), not a guess: if Q4 instead matched Q3, FY2026F EPS would be about 1.09 higher.

Exhibit 8Q4 profit has been near zero or negative in every recent year
BDT mn1Q25A2Q25A3Q25A4Q25A1Q26A2Q26A3Q26A4Q26F
Net profit after tax1,1701,6141,129-2351,2621,8441,352138
Net investment income3,3193,2333,4173,0753,2933,6533,0883,366
Profit before provisions3,5433,6833,7403,4484,0164,3543,8823,861
Total provisions8986401,1803,0561,1138571,0082,924
Tax1,4751,4291,4306271,6411,6541,523799
EPS as reported (BDT)1.051.451.01-0.211.131.661.210.12
Check: 9M 2026 net profit vs filing 4,457.5——————0.0—

From the Quarterly tab of the model.

Source: AR 2025 p.79 [1]; Q1–Q3 2026 interims p.8 [s5; s4; s3]; Q4 2026F from the model [17]
Exhibit 9Investment yield fell from 9.7% to about 9.1% while the payout ratio held
%
0246810.0ForecastFY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Investment yieldNet investment margin
Data
FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Investment yield7.007.578.699.709.088.708.60
Net investment margin2.883.343.574.043.643.453.41
Source: AR 2025 p.79 [1]; 9M 2026 [3]; AnalystBro model [17]

NPI fell to 4.46% after BDT 3.1bn of write-offs, but special-mention investments rose to 7.5% of the book

First check: no deferred shortfall. Bangladesh Bank's inspection letter of 5-Apr-2026 told SJIBL to hold extra general and specific provisions, reverse some 2025 income and fully provide certain placements with banks and NBFIs; the auditor reports that the bank maintained the required provision as per that letter [s1 p.235-236]. Required provision for investments was BDT 12.58bn and maintained 12.60bn (surplus 16mn), including BDT 871.5mn of additional general provision 'as per BB requirement' [1 p.259]. Unlike ISLAMIBANK, there is no provision shortfall to deduct, so we value SJIBL on its reported book adjusted only for net NPI and the subsidiary.

Classified investments fell from BDT 21.2bn (7.88%) to 13.1bn (4.46%) in 2025: BDT 3.08bn was written off and the rest recovered, upgraded or rescheduled; bad/loss is 11.8bn of the total [1 p.259]. Specific provision held is BDT 6.30bn and general 6.29bn plus 1.72bn off-balance sheet; profit suspense grew to BDT 11.1bn [s1 p.80, p.263]. The worry is the special-mention account, up from BDT 3.9bn to 22.0bn (7.49%) under the stricter classification rules of BRPD Circular 15 of November 2024 [s1 p.259, p.235]. In 9M 2026 the bank added BDT 2.74bn of general provision but released specific provision [3 p.18]; it does not disclose the classified balance in the interim.

We set credit cost at 1.9% in FY2026F, then 1.7% and 1.6%, between the 0.5–0.7% of 2022–23 and the 2.05% of 2024–25, and an NPI ratio of 5.0% rising from 4.46% as part of the SMA book migrates. In adjusted book we deduct half of net NPI (BDT 3.39bn). Investment-income cash receipts were 109% of booked income in 2025 and 111% in 9M 2026 [s2 p.17; s3 p.8-9], above the 85% red-flag level, so we apply no income-recognition haircut. Credit cost of 2.5% in FY2027–28 would take fair value to 14.5; NPI of 8–10% with 3% credit cost and full haircut to 11.3.

Exhibit 10NPI and provisions, FY2021–FY2025
BDT bnFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Classified investments9.611.310.721.213.1
NPI ratio4.4%4.8%4.4%7.9%4.5%
Specific provision held3.13.94.07.96.3
General provision (investments + off-BS)3.84.04.23.88.0
Provisions charged1.171.111.735.255.77
Credit cost—0.5%0.7%2.1%2.1%
Special-mention investments———3.922.0
Source: AR 2025 p.80, p.259 [1]
Exhibit 11Every 0.5pp of credit cost moves fair value about BDT 1; a full NPI haircut costs 2.6
h \ credit cost FY27–28-1.0pp-0.5pp+0.0pp+0.5pp+1.0pp
h 50%16.716.115.514.914.3
h 75%15.314.714.213.613.1
h 100%13.913.412.912.411.9
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [17]

Paid-up capital of Tk1,113 crore bars cash dividends from FY2026; SJIBL needs 80% more shares

Bangladesh Bank's SPCD circular 06 of 23 May 2026 bars any cash dividend while a bank's paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore and caps cash at 50% of the total dividend above it, from the year ending 31 December 2026 [11 p.1]. SJIBL's paid-up capital is Tk1,113 crore and its authorised capital only Tk1,500 crore [s3 p.6; s1 p.79], so it cannot even issue enough bonus shares without first raising authorised capital at an EGM. The gap is Tk887 crore, 80% of today's capital. No such step had been announced by 31-Oct-2026 [10].

Capital actions in the last 24 months [10]: 10% cash for FY2024 (record date 22-May-2025); a board decision on 28-May-2025 to issue a 7-year BDT 6.0bn 4th Mudaraba subordinated bond, subject to approval (not issued by September 2026: Mudaraba bonds still BDT 10.0bn [3 p.6]); 13% cash for FY2025 (record date 30-Apr-2026, paid by 30-Jun-2026); and sponsor transfers and sales (Akkas Uddin Mollah 21.0mn shares in Aug-2025, Anwer Hossain Khan's transfers to LankaBangla Finance and Bangladesh Finance, a director's 1.0mn-share sale in Oct-2026). No rights issue, stock dividend or placement. Outstanding hybrid capital: a BDT 5.0bn Mudaraba perpetual bond (AT1, profit 6–10%, 10% paid for 2025) and a BDT 5.0bn 3rd subordinated bond amortising 20% a year from 2027 [1 p.263].

Our base: stock dividends of 35% for FY2026 and 34% for FY2027, funded from retained earnings (BDT 5.8bn available at end-2026 against a BDT 3.9bn bonus), take paid-up to Tk2,013 crore by mid-2028, with no cash for FY2026–27. For FY2028 we assume 20% of profit in cash and an equal stock part. A bonus moves no value: base value per post-bonus share would be 8.6 after both bonuses. The alternative, a Tk10 rights issue for the whole gap, means about four new shares for every five held; at today's price the theoretical ex-rights price is 14.06, and base value per share after the rights would be 11.8.

Capital is adequate but not rich. CRAR was 14.19% at December 2025, Tier-1 9.94% and CET1 8.30% against minimums of 12.5%, 8.5% and 7.0% with buffers [2 p.67]. Retaining all of 2026–27 profit lifts CRAR to 14.4% in FY2027F and 14.4% in FY2028F. The dividend rule changes how value reaches shareholders, not the value: in our method retained profit earns the bank's return.

Exhibit 12Two stock dividends of 35% and 34% clear Tk2,000 crore; value per post-bonus share BDT 8.6
BDT mn unless statedFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Paid-up capital now (BDT mn)11,129.7——
Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn)20,000——
Gap to threshold (BDT mn)8,870.3——
Cumulative stock dividend needed79.7%——
Route (a), base: stock dividends 35% for FY2026 and 34% for FY2027, no cash; FY2028 20% of NPAT in cash + equal stock
Stock dividend rate35.0%34.0%0.0%
Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year15,02520,13420,134
Stock dividend amount (capitalised from retained earnings)3,8955,1090
Retained earnings available before the bonus (bank)5,7756,7817,222
Shares after (mn)1,502.52,013.42,013.4
Ordinary EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)2.732.432.76
Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares)11.478.568.56
Memo: FY2025 cash dividend under the old rules (13% of face)1,447——
Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap (alternative; not in the base)
New shares (mn)887.0——
Proceeds (BDT mn)8,870——
Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT)11.83——
Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT)-2.19——
Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 17.3 (BDT)14.06——
CRAR FY2027F after the bonus (bonus moves no capital)—14.4%—
Ownership (31-Dec-2025)
Sponsors and directors' holding43.1%——
Institutions24.5%——
General public32.5%——

From the Dividend rule tab of the model.

Source: Dividend rule sheet [17]; SPCD circular 06 [11 p.1]; DSE news [10]

A 3-member Shariah committee, sponsors at 43% and a brokerage valued at BDT 1.6bn to the bank

Shariah structure. A Shariah Supervisory Committee chaired by Mufti Shamsuddin Zia, with Mufti Mohammad Mizanur Rahman and Mufti Abdullah Masum, reviews products and income [1 p.20]; its fees were BDT 0.8mn in 2025 [2 p.16]. Income it treats as doubtful (compensation on overdue investments, interest from foreign banks) is kept out of distributable income and given to charity: the compensation-realised account held BDT 2.60bn and compensation realisable and suspense another 1.65bn at December 2025 [s1 p.263; s2 p.37]. The committee's 2025 report is published in Bangla [1 p.232]; it did not disclose a non-compliant-income amount we could read (labelled gap).

Ownership and board. Sponsors and directors held 43.08% at December 2025 (45.30% a year earlier), institutions 24.47%, the public 32.45% and foreigners nil [2 p.66]. Mohammed Younus was elected chairman in February 2026 [10]. The board has 15 sponsor-linked directors and 2 independent directors; directors' related firms had BDT 1.52bn of investments (0.5% of the book) [s1 p.20; s2 p.56]. ECRL affirmed AA+ / ST-1 with a stable outlook in April 2026 [10]. We apply a 3% probability of resolution (value zero), at the low end of the band for Islamic banks, reflecting the 2024–25 Sammilito precedent rather than SJIBL's own figures.

Subsidiary. Shahjalal Islami Bank Securities Ltd (91.8% owned, cost BDT 2.52bn) is a broker with BDT 3.20bn of margin loans; it earned BDT 1.8mn in 2025 after a 15.0mn margin provision (16.8mn before it) [s1 p.286, p.300], under 0.5% of group profit, but its cost is 9.8% of the bank's equity, so we test it on value. Consolidated CET1 deducts a BDT 1.05bn 'shortfall in provisions required against investment' that does not appear in the bank's own capital [s2 p.66-67]; it is the broker's margin-account shortfall (BDT 568mn) plus its own-portfolio unrealised-loss shortfall (484mn), both deferred by BSEC to 2030 [1 p.292]. On its own fundamentals (ROE about 0.1%) the broker is worth at most its book net of that shortfall: 91.8% × (2.79 − 1.05) = BDT 1.60bn, so we write the bank's stake down by 0.92bn in adjusted book. Writing it off entirely would take fair value to 14.3. A sum of the parts does not apply.

Exhibit 13The brokerage earns BDT 1.8mn on BDT 2.79bn of equity; we value the stake at BDT 1.60bn
BDT mnFY2025FY2024
Total assets6,108.36,091.6
Receivable from clients (margin investments)3,200.93,350.9
Shareholders' equity2,789.32,787.5
Net profit after tax1.85.3
Bank's holding91.8%—
Group provision shortfall deducted from consolidated CET11,050.7837.6
Subsidiary equity net of the shortfall1,738.6—
Bank's share of that equity (value on own fundamentals: ROE 0.1%, so at most book)1,595.8—
Write-down vs carrying cost 2,515 (deducted from adjusted book)919.2—
Carrying cost / bank equity FY20259.8%—

From the Subsidiary tab of the model.

Source: AR 2025 p.236, p.286 [1]; FS 2025 p.66-67 [2]; Subsidiary sheet [17]

We forecast net profit of BDT 4.6bn in FY2026F and 6.0bn in FY2028F, with ordinary ROE near 15%

Each line has its own driver. Investment income = yield × average investments; profit paid = distribution ratio × 70.7% × investment income; securities income = sukuk yield × holdings (a share of deposits); fees, other income, staff and other costs grow from their 2025 base; zakat is 2.6% of the statutory reserve; provisions = credit cost × average investments; tax = an effective rate that tracks the provision charge (46–51% in 2021–23 at 0.5–0.7% credit cost, 57–69% in 2024–25 at 2.05% [1 p.79]). Excess liquidity sits in cash and placements, which we do not credit with income: a conservative choice. FY2026F is the 9M 2026 actual plus a fourth quarter built from the September balance sheet.

The result: net profit of 4.60bn, 5.40bn and 6.05bn in FY2026–28F; after the BDT 500mn AT1 profit, ordinary EPS of 3.68, 4.40 and 4.99 and ROE of 15.2%, 16.0% and 15.4%. FY2027F rises because credit cost and tax ease from 2026 levels and the book grows about 10%. Scenarios move the risk-table drivers symmetrically: deposit and investment growth ∓3pp in Q4 and ∓5pp a year, investment yield ∓0.3/0.6pp, distribution ratio ±2/5pp, fees ∓4pp, credit cost ±0.4–0.7pp, NPI to 8% or 3.5%. Beyond FY2028 the cases fade back to SJIBL's own record: sustainable ROE of 13.0% in the base and 11.0% / 15.0% in the bear / bull, 2pp either side and inside the FY2021–25 post-AT1 range of 5.2–15.0% [1 p.80]. The probability of resolution is 5% / 3% / 2% in the bear / base / bull. The cost of equity is not stacked into the cases, and the NPI haircut moves symmetrically (75 / 50 / 25%). A fully stacked case is shown separately as a stress line.

Exhibit 14Drivers: growth, yield, distribution ratio, credit cost and tax
DriverFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Shares outstanding (mn)1,113.0———————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)17.30———————
Scenario drivers
Deposit growth - bear—————0.0%6.0%6.0%
Deposit growth - base—————3.0%11.0%10.0%
Deposit growth - bull—————6.0%16.0%14.0%
Deposit growth - active—————3.0%11.0%10.0%
Investment (financing) growth - bear—————0.0%5.0%5.0%
Investment (financing) growth - base—————3.0%10.0%9.0%
Investment (financing) growth - bull—————6.0%15.0%13.0%
Investment (financing) growth - active—————3.0%10.0%9.0%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - bear—————8.5%8.1%8.0%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - base—————8.8%8.7%8.6%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - bull—————9.1%9.3%9.2%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - active—————8.8%8.7%8.6%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - bear—————76.5%79.0%79.0%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - base—————74.5%74.0%74.0%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - bull—————72.5%69.0%69.0%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - active—————74.5%74.0%74.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - bear—————8.0%4.0%4.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - base—————12.0%8.0%8.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - bull—————16.0%12.0%12.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - active—————12.0%8.0%8.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - bear—————2.3%2.4%2.2%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - base—————1.9%1.7%1.6%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - bull—————1.5%1.0%1.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - active—————1.9%1.7%1.6%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - bear—————6.5%8.0%8.0%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - base—————5.0%5.0%4.5%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - bull—————4.0%3.5%3.0%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - active—————5.0%5.0%4.5%
Single-path drivers
Yield on shares & securities (income / avg holdings)—————7.3%7.0%6.8%
Shares & securities / deposits—————18.5%18.0%18.0%
Other operating income growth (full year)—————6.0%7.0%7.0%
Staff cost growth (salaries incl. MD; full year)—————14.0%9.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (rent, IT, depreciation, other; full year)—————5.0%7.0%7.0%
Effective tax rate—————55.0%53.0%52.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT)—————0.0%0.0%20.0%
Borrowings (placements from banks incl. BB refinance + Mudaraba bonds) / deposits—————12.5%12.0%11.5%
Other liabilities / deposits—————17.5%17.5%17.5%
Fixed asset growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26)—————0.0%3.0%3.0%
RWA / investments—————104.0%104.0%104.0%
Tier-2 capital (BDT mn)—————16,00016,00015,500
Net NPI / gross NPI (after specific provision)—————52.0%52.0%52.0%
Profit on Mudaraba Perpetual Bond (AT1, BDT mn a year)—————500500500
30-Sep-2026 actuals (bank, unaudited) that anchor FY2026F
Investments (financing) 30-Sep-2026318,524.9———————
Deposits 30-Sep-2026352,182.4———————
Shares & securities 30-Sep-202665,312.8———————
Placements from banks + Mudaraba bonds 30-Sep-202645,083.3———————
Other liabilities incl. deferred tax 30-Sep-202662,311.9———————
Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-202628,291.6———————
Fixed assets 30-Sep-20264,975.0———————
Retained earnings 30-Sep-20265,789.4———————
9M 2026 investment income21,080.7———————
9M 2026 profit paid on deposits11,047.2———————
9M 2026 income from shares & securities3,172.9———————
9M 2026 total provisions2,977.2———————
9M 2026 profit before tax9,275.6———————
9M 2026 tax4,818.2———————
9M 2026 net profit4,457.5———————
9M 2026 profit on perpetual bond (appropriated)347.0———————
Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E)
Cost of equity scenario adjustment0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Terminal growth g (before the ROE x retention cap)6.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%————
Scenario adjustment to sustainable ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Sustainable ROE anchor11.0%13.0%15.0%13.0%————
NPI haircut h on net NPI75.0%50.0%25.0%50.0%————
Probability of resolution p (equity value 0)5.0%3.0%2.0%3.0%————
Extra subsidiary write-down (BDT mn; risk case only)0000————
Realistic cash payout (own history, cash cap aside)40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%————

From the Assumptions tab of the model.

Source: Assumptions sheet [17]
Exhibit 15Income statement FY2021A–FY2028F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Investment income (profit on financing and placements)13,80515,88518,13022,19327,26928,19329,97032,433
Profit paid on deposits and borrowings7,3828,3359,03411,86514,22514,79415,68016,968
Net investment income6,4237,5509,09610,32813,04413,40014,29015,465
Income from investments in shares & securities1,1921,7331,7211,9952,8424,3814,8855,175
Commission, exchange and brokerage2,2393,4872,8613,8963,6324,0684,3934,745
Other operating income1,0461,3511,5361,4911,7751,8822,0132,154
Total operating income10,90014,12115,21417,71021,29323,73025,58227,538
Staff costs (salaries and allowances incl. MD)———4,5924,5315,1655,6306,137
Zakat———286289289289289
Other operating expenses———2,1012,0592,1622,3132,475
Total operating expenses4,8975,7866,3276,9796,8797,6178,2338,902
Profit before provisions6,0038,3358,88710,73114,41416,11417,34918,637
Total provisions (investments, off-balance sheet, shares, other assets)1,1671,1081,7345,2545,7745,9015,8566,034
Profit before tax4,8367,2277,1535,4778,64010,21311,49312,603
Tax2,2523,7013,5283,7884,9615,6176,0916,553
Net profit after tax (bank)2,5843,5263,6251,6893,6794,5965,4026,049
Less: profit on Mudaraba perpetual bond (AT1, appropriation)394394411464500500500500
Net profit to ordinary shareholders2,1903,1323,2141,2253,1794,0964,9025,549
EPS as reported (NPAT / 1,113.0mn shares, BDT)2.323.173.261.523.314.134.855.44
EPS to ordinary shareholders (BDT)1.972.812.891.102.863.684.404.99
Cash DPS declared (BDT, current shares)0.921.171.401.001.300.000.001.09

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: Income statement sheet [17]
Exhibit 16Balance sheet FY2021A–FY2028F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Assets
Cash, balances with banks, placements and other assets (plug in forecast)55,79963,83072,78276,48882,19699,685116,121131,717
Investments in shares & securities (sukuk, bonds, shares)36,26833,48631,95136,30147,06067,10872,47779,725
Investments (financing: Bai-Muajjal, HPSM, Murabaha etc.)216,587237,230241,751268,946293,078328,081360,889393,369
Fixed assets5,0775,2735,2355,1155,0914,9755,1245,278
Total assets313,731339,819351,719386,850427,425499,849554,611610,089
Liabilities and equity
Deposits and other accounts217,289227,982249,585285,654313,123362,748402,650442,915
Placements from banks (incl. BB refinance) + Mudaraba bonds—52,23735,71135,39836,48045,34348,31850,935
Other liabilities incl. deferred tax76,63937,73042,66342,37152,19663,48170,46477,510
Shareholders' equity19,80321,87023,76023,42725,62728,27733,17938,728
Total liabilities and equity313,731339,819351,719386,850427,426499,849554,611610,089
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)0000-1000
Deposit mix (memo)
Mudaraba deposits (savings + term + other Mudaraba)—173,817184,695207,561224,855———
Al-Wadeeah current & other accounts—48,29360,01273,57383,521———
Asset quality and capital
Classified investments (gross NPI)9,56911,33310,68921,19113,08016,40418,04417,702
Specific provision held3,0753,9274,0207,9166,3037,8748,6618,497
General provision held (investments + off-balance sheet)3,7754,0184,1913,8168,0128,9699,86610,754
Net NPI (gross NPI - specific provision)6,4947,4066,66913,2756,7778,5309,3839,205
Risk-weighted assets224,654236,937226,626260,567306,028341,204375,324409,103
Tier-1 capital (incl. AT1 perpetual 5,000)24,53226,84628,72728,37130,40633,02237,88043,379
Tier-2 capital9,2467,2185,3918,81613,01216,00016,00015,500
Total regulatory capital33,77834,06434,11837,18743,41849,02253,88058,879
Cash dividend declared for the year1,0291,2971,5581,1131,447001,210

From the Balance sheet tab of the model.

Source: Balance sheet sheet [17]
Exhibit 17Ratios FY2021A–FY2028F
RatioFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments)—7.0%7.6%8.7%9.7%9.1%8.7%8.6%
Cost of funds (profit paid / avg deposits + borrowings)——3.2%3.9%4.2%3.9%3.7%3.6%
Spread (investment yield - cost of funds)——4.4%4.8%5.5%5.2%5.0%5.0%
Yield on shares & securities—5.0%5.3%5.8%6.8%7.7%7.0%6.8%
Net investment margin (NII / avg investments + securities)—2.9%3.3%3.6%4.0%3.6%3.4%3.4%
Core margin ((NII + securities income) / avg investments + securities)—3.5%4.0%4.3%4.9%4.8%4.6%4.6%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income = 70.7% of investment income)75.6%74.2%70.5%75.6%73.8%74.2%74.0%74.0%
Cost-to-income44.9%41.0%41.6%39.4%32.3%32.1%32.2%32.3%
Credit cost (provisions / avg investments)—0.5%0.7%2.1%2.1%1.9%1.7%1.6%
Gross NPI ratio4.4%4.8%4.4%7.9%4.5%5.0%5.0%4.5%
Coverage (specific + general provision) / NPI71.6%70.1%76.8%55.4%109.4%102.7%102.7%108.7%
Investments / deposits (simple)99.7%104.1%96.9%94.2%93.6%90.4%89.6%88.8%
Mudaraba deposits / deposits—76.2%74.0%72.7%71.8%———
Tier-1 ratio10.9%11.3%12.7%10.9%9.9%9.7%10.1%10.6%
CRAR15.0%14.4%15.1%14.3%14.2%14.4%14.4%14.4%
Capital above 12.5% CRAR (BDT mn)5,6964,4475,7904,6165,1646,3726,9647,742
ROA (NPAT / avg assets)—1.1%1.0%0.5%0.9%1.0%1.0%1.0%
ROE on NPAT (NPAT / avg equity)—16.9%15.9%7.2%15.0%17.1%17.6%16.8%
ROE to ordinary shareholders ((NPAT - AT1 profit) / avg equity)—15.0%14.1%5.2%13.0%15.2%16.0%15.4%
Book value per share (BDT)17.7919.6521.3521.0523.0325.4129.8134.80
P/B at 17.3————0.8x0.7x0.6x0.5x
P/E at 17.3 (ordinary EPS)————6.1x4.7x3.9x3.5x
Cash dividend yield at 17.3————7.5%0.0%0.0%6.3%

From the Ratios tab of the model.

Source: Ratios sheet [17]

Fair value range BDT 9–25, base 16: a 13.0% sustainable ROE justifies 0.73x adjusted book

Method. Residual income on adjusted book (80%) and a justified P/E on normalised earnings (20%), multiplied by 1 − p, the probability of resolution (3%). The cost of equity is 15.3%: the 10-year T-bond cut-off of 9.27% [13] plus beta 0.80 × a 7.5% equity risk premium. The measured beta is low (against the DSEX raw 0.55, Blume 0.70, R² 0.22; against the DSES Shariah index raw 0.46, Blume 0.64) [12] because the stock trades thinly, so we apply the F01 G1 rule (bank beta floor 0.80). Residual income charges Ke on adjusted book in every year and applies (P/ABV − 1) to the adjusted 2028 book; profit retained beyond what growth needs (the SPCD cash ban forces it) is treated as excess capital earning Ke, so it neither adds nor destroys value. Adjusted book is December-2025 equity of BDT 25.63bn, less no provision shortfall, less half of net NPI (3.39bn) and the subsidiary write-down (0.92bn): BDT 21.32bn, or 19.16 a share.

Sustainable ROE. We anchor on SJIBL's own record, not on our FY2028F forecast (which gives 15.4%). SJIBL's own ROE on NPAT was 12.4, 9.1, 10.5, 11.0 and 11.1% in 2016–20 [7 p.225] and 13.7, 16.9, 15.9, 7.2 and 15.0% in 2021–25 [1 p.79]; after the AT1 coupon, 2021–25 was 11.6, 15.0, 14.1, 5.2 and 13.0%. Base 13.0% = the median of the five post-AT1 years 2021–25. It is consistent with the 10-year NPAT median of 11.8% plus a margin for the lower cost-to-income of recent years (32% in 2025 against 41–45% in 2021–23 [1 p.80]), which we do not add separately. The forecast years earn more (ROE 16.0% in FY2027F); the anchor assumes they fade. Bear and bull sit 2pp either side (11% / 15%); 15% is SJIBL's best post-AT1 year (2022).

Terminal. Growth is the lower of 7% (6% in the bear) and what SJIBL can fund: ROE_s × (1 − its 40% median cash payout of FY2021–25) = 7.8%, so g = 7.0%. The economic payout is 1 − g/ROE_s = 46.2%; the SPCD rule only decides how much of it is cash. Justified P/ABV = (ROE_s − g)/(Ke − g) = 0.73x. Residual income FY2026–28F adds BDT 0.73bn and the terminal -4.94bn (-28.9% of the value). Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 and less the FY2025 cash dividend paid, residual income gives 16.0 a share. In the bear case ROE_s of 11.0% gives g = min(6%, 11.0% × 60%) = 6% and a justified P/ABV of about 0.54x. Retention of 60% is 1 − SJIBL's median cash payout of 40% in FY2021–25 (40, 37, 43, 66 and 39% of NPAT) [s1 p.79-80].

Justified P/E. Payout × (1+g)/(Ke − g) = 5.97x on normalised ordinary EPS of 2.64 = 15.8; it uses the same ROE, g, payout and adjusted book as the residual-income leg; the legs differ only because residual income also counts FY2026–28F returns above the anchor (16.0 against 15.8 in the base; 9.2 against 10.6 in the bear). We do not use SJIBL's own year-end P/E (4.99x in 2025, 12.07x in 2024 [2 p.89]). The peer P/B leg is dropped: we have not read the Islamic peers' books from their filings on the same basis. Blend: (0.8 × 16.0 + 0.2 × 15.8) × 0.97 = 15.5, 0.61x September-2026 book, 0.81x adjusted book and 4.2x FY2026F ordinary EPS. The price implies a sustainable ROE of 13.8%.

Exhibit 18Every 2pp of sustainable ROE moves fair value by about BDT 4
Ke \ ROE_s9.0%11.0%13.0%15.0%17.0%
13.3%10.614.620.326.231.9
14.3%9.512.717.622.627.5
15.3%8.611.315.519.924.2
16.3%7.810.113.817.821.6
17.3%7.29.212.516.119.5
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [17]
Exhibit 19NPI 2pp higher with a 10pp higher distribution ratio takes fair value to BDT 13.5; each 5pp of ratio is about 0.40
NPI shock FY27–28 \ distribution ratio FY27–28-10pp-5pp+0pp+5pp+10pp
-2.0pp18.818.418.117.717.3
-1.0pp17.517.116.716.416.0
+0.0pp16.215.815.515.114.7
+1.0pp15.014.614.313.913.5
+2.0pp13.813.413.112.712.4
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [17] · NPI shock raises FY27-28 credit cost by half the NPI rise and the NPI haircut by 25pp per 2pp.
Exhibit 20Islamic peers: SJIBL has the only double-digit ROE (context only, weight 0)
Price (BDT)Market cap (BDT bn)P/BROE (latest quarter, annualised)
SHAHJABANK17.319.30.6740.155
ISLAMIBANK22.736.50.63-0.193
ALARABANK15.017.30.6450.034
STANDBANKL4.04.50.2360.024
ICBIBANK2.51.7——
Source: AnalystBro screener, 29-Oct-2026 [12]; consolidated, latest quarter, not checked against peers' filings · Peers' filings were not read on the same basis, so this table does not enter the valuation. IDR, cost of funds, distribution ratio, governance status and BB support for peers are a labelled gap.
Exhibit 21Bear 9.0 / base 15.5 / bull 24.7; probability-weighted 16.2
BearBaseBull
Residual income per share9.216.025.8
Justified P/E per share10.615.823.0
Sustainable ROE11.0%13.0%15.0%
Terminal growth6.0%7.0%7.0%
Fair value (80/20 × (1 − p))9.015.524.7
FY2027F ordinary EPS2.224.406.86
Source: Valuation sheet, scenario recalculations [17]
Exhibit 22Cost of equity: 9.27% + 0.80 × 7.5%
Cost of equity inputValue
Risk-free rate: 10-yr BD T-bond cut-off yield9.3%
Raw beta: 2-yr weekly vs DSEX (104 returns to 29-Oct-2026, dividends added back)0.55
Blume-adjusted beta (DSEX; the higher of DSEX and DSES)0.70
Beta used (F01 G1 floor 0.8)0.80
Equity risk premium7.5%
Cost of equity, base (Rf + beta x ERP)15.3%
Scenario adjustment (active)0.0%
Cost of equity used (active scenario)15.3%
Terminal growth g before cap (active)7.0%

From the WACC tab of the model.

Source: WACC sheet [17]; BB auctions [13]; beta from DSE weekly prices [12]
Exhibit 23Valuation sheet
BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Book equity 31-Dec-2025 (bank)25,627——
Less: provision shortfall or BB-deferred provision (none)0——
Less: h x net NPI held at 31-Dec-20253,388——
Less: subsidiary write-down to adjusted book (Subsidiary sheet)919——
Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-202521,319——
Sustainable ROE (F01 G1): FY2028F to ordinary shareholders, credit cost at the long-run 1.6%
Add: half of any FY2028F credit cost excess over the long-run 1.6%, after tax0——
Normalised net profit to ordinary shareholders (FY2028F)5,549——
Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg equity FY2027-28F)15.4%——
Sustainable ROE used (own-history anchor, Assumptions; model FY2028F normalised ROE shown above for comparison)13.0%——
Growth the bank can fund: ROE_s x (1 - realistic payout)7.8%——
Terminal growth used = MIN(g, ROE_s x retention)7.0%——
Economic payout = 1 - g / ROE_s (cash + excess capital earning only Ke)46.2%——
Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.7x——
Explicit years on adjusted book (excess capital retained beyond the growth need earns Ke: value-neutral)
Net profit to ordinary shareholders4,0964,9025,549
Return on opening reported book (NP / opening equity)16.0%17.3%16.7%
Opening adjusted book (starts at ABV)21,31923,15425,315
Equity charge (Ke x opening adjusted book)3,2553,5353,865
Residual income = (ROE - Ke) x opening adjusted book152479369
Closing adjusted book = opening x (1 + ROE x g/ROE_s retention)23,15425,31527,595
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.870.750.65
PV of residual income132360241
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F733——
Adjusted book 31-Dec-2028 (RI basis)27,595——
PV of terminal excess return (P/ABV - 1) x adjusted book-4,943——
Residual-income value 31-Dec-202517,110——
Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid17,805——
Residual-income value per share (BDT)16.00——
Normalised ordinary EPS (normalised ROE x adjusted avg equity FY2025-26F / shares)2.64——
Justified P/E = payout x (1 + g) / (Ke - g)6.0x——
P/E leg per share (justified P/E x normalised EPS)15.80——
Weight: residual income80.0%——
Weight: justified P/E20.0%——
Going-concern value per share (BDT)15.96——
Probability of resolution p (value 0)3.0%——
Fair value per share, resolution-weighted (1 - p) x going concern (BDT)15.48——
Terminal share of RI value-28.9%——
Implied P/B on Sep-26 book (25.42)0.6x——
Implied P/ABV on Dec-25 adjusted book0.8x——
Implied P/E FY2026F (ordinary EPS)4.2x——
Implied P/E FY2027F (ordinary EPS)3.5x——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: RI / P/E / resolution-weighted blend9.2510.589.04
Base: RI / P/E / resolution-weighted blend16.0015.8015.48
Bull: RI / P/E / resolution-weighted blend25.7822.9824.72
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)16.18——
Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 17.3 (base Ke, g)13.8%——

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: AnalystBro model [17]

An NPI shock is the largest single risk: NPI of 8–10% takes 27% off base value

Each risk below is a change to a model driver; the value shown is the base fair value after recalculating the workbook with that change alone. On BDT 488bn of assets and BDT 28bn of equity, small changes in the distribution ratio, yield or credit cost move value a lot.

Exhibit 24Eleven quantified risks
RiskLine movedFair value (BDT)Change vs base
Distribution ratio +5pp (FY2027–28)Profit paid on deposits15.11384937555884-0.024912943512332975
Investment yield −0.5ppInvestment income15.19449145764323-0.0197102285391465
Deposits and investments grow 0% in Q4, 5% a yearBalance sheet, all income lines15.13777426436686-0.023369402298912267
Credit cost 2.5% in FY2027–28Provisions14.45754371977397-0.06725524388555038
NPI 8–10% with 3% credit cost, full haircutProvisions, adjusted book11.29257091474425-0.2714470377584355
Fees −10% a yearCommission, exchange and brokerage15.12132874885221-0.02443040329985735
Tax rate 55% every yearTax15.26934471569889-0.014880986083942505
Cost of equity +1ppDiscount rate13.84058854156703-0.1070588037698691
Resolution probability 10%Value weighting14.36213121204262-0.07341088954563746
Brokerage stake written offAdjusted book14.25836201134972-0.08010567668711488
Stacked stress (outside the range: all bear drivers + Ke +1pp + full haircut)Several lines at once5.224403520964369-0.6629417083248794
Source: AnalystBro model, workbook recalculations [17]
  • Deposit flight: if trust returns to Sammilito or other Islamic banks, the 2026 deposit gains could reverse (deposit growth line) or cost a higher distribution ratio (profit paid line).
  • Regulation: a new BB inspection could again require extra provisions or income reversal, as in April 2026 (provisions line, adjusted book).
  • Capital: a rights issue below fair value to meet the Tk2,000 crore rule would dilute value only if priced below the post-issue value per share (Dividend rule sheet).
  • Liquidity: about 0.1–0.3mn shares trade a day, so the price can stay far from fair value.

Signposts

  • FY2026 accounts (around April 2027): Q4 provisions, NPI and SMA, and the final Mudaraba rate.
  • FY2026 dividend: stock dividend size, authorised-capital EGM, or rights issue.
  • Status of the BDT 6.0bn 4th subordinated bond and quarterly deposit growth.

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

DriverFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Shares outstanding (mn)1,113.0———————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)17.30———————
Scenario drivers
Deposit growth - bear—————0.0%6.0%6.0%
Deposit growth - base—————3.0%11.0%10.0%
Deposit growth - bull—————6.0%16.0%14.0%
Deposit growth - active—————3.0%11.0%10.0%
Investment (financing) growth - bear—————0.0%5.0%5.0%
Investment (financing) growth - base—————3.0%10.0%9.0%
Investment (financing) growth - bull—————6.0%15.0%13.0%
Investment (financing) growth - active—————3.0%10.0%9.0%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - bear—————8.5%8.1%8.0%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - base—————8.8%8.7%8.6%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - bull—————9.1%9.3%9.2%
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments) - active—————8.8%8.7%8.6%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - bear—————76.5%79.0%79.0%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - base—————74.5%74.0%74.0%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - bull—————72.5%69.0%69.0%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income; distributable = 70.7% of investment income) - active—————74.5%74.0%74.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - bear—————8.0%4.0%4.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - base—————12.0%8.0%8.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - bull—————16.0%12.0%12.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth (full year) - active—————12.0%8.0%8.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - bear—————2.3%2.4%2.2%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - base—————1.9%1.7%1.6%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - bull—————1.5%1.0%1.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg investments, full year) - active—————1.9%1.7%1.6%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - bear—————6.5%8.0%8.0%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - base—————5.0%5.0%4.5%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - bull—————4.0%3.5%3.0%
Gross NPI ratio (classified investments, year end) - active—————5.0%5.0%4.5%
Single-path drivers
Yield on shares & securities (income / avg holdings)—————7.3%7.0%6.8%
Shares & securities / deposits—————18.5%18.0%18.0%
Other operating income growth (full year)—————6.0%7.0%7.0%
Staff cost growth (salaries incl. MD; full year)—————14.0%9.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (rent, IT, depreciation, other; full year)—————5.0%7.0%7.0%
Effective tax rate—————55.0%53.0%52.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT)—————0.0%0.0%20.0%
Borrowings (placements from banks incl. BB refinance + Mudaraba bonds) / deposits—————12.5%12.0%11.5%
Other liabilities / deposits—————17.5%17.5%17.5%
Fixed asset growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26)—————0.0%3.0%3.0%
RWA / investments—————104.0%104.0%104.0%
Tier-2 capital (BDT mn)—————16,00016,00015,500
Net NPI / gross NPI (after specific provision)—————52.0%52.0%52.0%
Profit on Mudaraba Perpetual Bond (AT1, BDT mn a year)—————500500500
30-Sep-2026 actuals (bank, unaudited) that anchor FY2026F
Investments (financing) 30-Sep-2026318,524.9———————
Deposits 30-Sep-2026352,182.4———————
Shares & securities 30-Sep-202665,312.8———————
Placements from banks + Mudaraba bonds 30-Sep-202645,083.3———————
Other liabilities incl. deferred tax 30-Sep-202662,311.9———————
Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-202628,291.6———————
Fixed assets 30-Sep-20264,975.0———————
Retained earnings 30-Sep-20265,789.4———————
9M 2026 investment income21,080.7———————
9M 2026 profit paid on deposits11,047.2———————
9M 2026 income from shares & securities3,172.9———————
9M 2026 total provisions2,977.2———————
9M 2026 profit before tax9,275.6———————
9M 2026 tax4,818.2———————
9M 2026 net profit4,457.5———————
9M 2026 profit on perpetual bond (appropriated)347.0———————
Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E)
Cost of equity scenario adjustment0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Terminal growth g (before the ROE x retention cap)6.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%————
Scenario adjustment to sustainable ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Sustainable ROE anchor11.0%13.0%15.0%13.0%————
NPI haircut h on net NPI75.0%50.0%25.0%50.0%————
Probability of resolution p (equity value 0)5.0%3.0%2.0%3.0%————
Extra subsidiary write-down (BDT mn; risk case only)0000————
Realistic cash payout (own history, cash cap aside)40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%————

Income statement

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Investment income (profit on financing and placements)13,80515,88518,13022,19327,26928,19329,97032,433
Profit paid on deposits and borrowings7,3828,3359,03411,86514,22514,79415,68016,968
Net investment income6,4237,5509,09610,32813,04413,40014,29015,465
Income from investments in shares & securities1,1921,7331,7211,9952,8424,3814,8855,175
Commission, exchange and brokerage2,2393,4872,8613,8963,6324,0684,3934,745
Other operating income1,0461,3511,5361,4911,7751,8822,0132,154
Total operating income10,90014,12115,21417,71021,29323,73025,58227,538
Staff costs (salaries and allowances incl. MD)———4,5924,5315,1655,6306,137
Zakat———286289289289289
Other operating expenses———2,1012,0592,1622,3132,475
Total operating expenses4,8975,7866,3276,9796,8797,6178,2338,902
Profit before provisions6,0038,3358,88710,73114,41416,11417,34918,637
Total provisions (investments, off-balance sheet, shares, other assets)1,1671,1081,7345,2545,7745,9015,8566,034
Profit before tax4,8367,2277,1535,4778,64010,21311,49312,603
Tax2,2523,7013,5283,7884,9615,6176,0916,553
Net profit after tax (bank)2,5843,5263,6251,6893,6794,5965,4026,049
Less: profit on Mudaraba perpetual bond (AT1, appropriation)394394411464500500500500
Net profit to ordinary shareholders2,1903,1323,2141,2253,1794,0964,9025,549
EPS as reported (NPAT / 1,113.0mn shares, BDT)2.323.173.261.523.314.134.855.44
EPS to ordinary shareholders (BDT)1.972.812.891.102.863.684.404.99
Cash DPS declared (BDT, current shares)0.921.171.401.001.300.000.001.09

Balance sheet

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Assets
Cash, balances with banks, placements and other assets (plug in forecast)55,79963,83072,78276,48882,19699,685116,121131,717
Investments in shares & securities (sukuk, bonds, shares)36,26833,48631,95136,30147,06067,10872,47779,725
Investments (financing: Bai-Muajjal, HPSM, Murabaha etc.)216,587237,230241,751268,946293,078328,081360,889393,369
Fixed assets5,0775,2735,2355,1155,0914,9755,1245,278
Total assets313,731339,819351,719386,850427,425499,849554,611610,089
Liabilities and equity
Deposits and other accounts217,289227,982249,585285,654313,123362,748402,650442,915
Placements from banks (incl. BB refinance) + Mudaraba bonds—52,23735,71135,39836,48045,34348,31850,935
Other liabilities incl. deferred tax76,63937,73042,66342,37152,19663,48170,46477,510
Shareholders' equity19,80321,87023,76023,42725,62728,27733,17938,728
Total liabilities and equity313,731339,819351,719386,850427,426499,849554,611610,089
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)0000-1000
Deposit mix (memo)
Mudaraba deposits (savings + term + other Mudaraba)—173,817184,695207,561224,855———
Al-Wadeeah current & other accounts—48,29360,01273,57383,521———
Asset quality and capital
Classified investments (gross NPI)9,56911,33310,68921,19113,08016,40418,04417,702
Specific provision held3,0753,9274,0207,9166,3037,8748,6618,497
General provision held (investments + off-balance sheet)3,7754,0184,1913,8168,0128,9699,86610,754
Net NPI (gross NPI - specific provision)6,4947,4066,66913,2756,7778,5309,3839,205
Risk-weighted assets224,654236,937226,626260,567306,028341,204375,324409,103
Tier-1 capital (incl. AT1 perpetual 5,000)24,53226,84628,72728,37130,40633,02237,88043,379
Tier-2 capital9,2467,2185,3918,81613,01216,00016,00015,500
Total regulatory capital33,77834,06434,11837,18743,41849,02253,88058,879
Cash dividend declared for the year1,0291,2971,5581,1131,447001,210

Cash flow

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net profit after tax——3,6251,6893,6794,5965,4026,049
Increase in deposits——21,60336,06927,46949,62539,90240,265
Increase in placements from banks and bonds——-16,526-3131,0828,8632,9752,617
Increase in other liabilities——4,933-2929,82511,2856,9837,046
Increase in investments (financing)——-4,521-27,195-24,132-35,003-32,808-32,480
Operating cash flow (balance-sheet basis)——9,1149,95817,92339,36622,45323,498
Increase in shares & securities——1,535-4,350-10,759-20,048-5,369-7,248
Increase in fixed assets (net capex)——3812024116-149-154
Investing cash flow——1,573-4,230-10,735-19,932-5,518-7,401
Cash dividend paid——-1,297-1,558-1,113-1,44700
Profit paid on perpetual bond——-411-464-500-500-500-500
Other equity movements (reserves)——-270134100
Financing cash flow——-1,735-2,022-1,479-1,946-500-500
Increase in cash, placements and other assets——-8,952-3,706-5,708-17,489-16,436-15,597
Check: sum of flows (should be 0)——001-100

Quarterly

BDT mn1Q25A2Q25A3Q25A4Q25A1Q26A2Q26A3Q26A4Q26F
Net profit after tax1,1701,6141,129-2351,2621,8441,352138
Net investment income3,3193,2333,4173,0753,2933,6533,0883,366
Profit before provisions3,5433,6833,7403,4484,0164,3543,8823,861
Total provisions8986401,1803,0561,1138571,0082,924
Tax1,4751,4291,4306271,6411,6541,523799
EPS as reported (BDT)1.051.451.01-0.211.131.661.210.12
Check: 9M 2026 net profit vs filing 4,457.5——————0.0—

Ratios

RatioFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Investment yield (investment income / avg investments)—7.0%7.6%8.7%9.7%9.1%8.7%8.6%
Cost of funds (profit paid / avg deposits + borrowings)——3.2%3.9%4.2%3.9%3.7%3.6%
Spread (investment yield - cost of funds)——4.4%4.8%5.5%5.2%5.0%5.0%
Yield on shares & securities—5.0%5.3%5.8%6.8%7.7%7.0%6.8%
Net investment margin (NII / avg investments + securities)—2.9%3.3%3.6%4.0%3.6%3.4%3.4%
Core margin ((NII + securities income) / avg investments + securities)—3.5%4.0%4.3%4.9%4.8%4.6%4.6%
Mudaraba distribution ratio (profit paid / distributable income = 70.7% of investment income)75.6%74.2%70.5%75.6%73.8%74.2%74.0%74.0%
Cost-to-income44.9%41.0%41.6%39.4%32.3%32.1%32.2%32.3%
Credit cost (provisions / avg investments)—0.5%0.7%2.1%2.1%1.9%1.7%1.6%
Gross NPI ratio4.4%4.8%4.4%7.9%4.5%5.0%5.0%4.5%
Coverage (specific + general provision) / NPI71.6%70.1%76.8%55.4%109.4%102.7%102.7%108.7%
Investments / deposits (simple)99.7%104.1%96.9%94.2%93.6%90.4%89.6%88.8%
Mudaraba deposits / deposits—76.2%74.0%72.7%71.8%———
Tier-1 ratio10.9%11.3%12.7%10.9%9.9%9.7%10.1%10.6%
CRAR15.0%14.4%15.1%14.3%14.2%14.4%14.4%14.4%
Capital above 12.5% CRAR (BDT mn)5,6964,4475,7904,6165,1646,3726,9647,742
ROA (NPAT / avg assets)—1.1%1.0%0.5%0.9%1.0%1.0%1.0%
ROE on NPAT (NPAT / avg equity)—16.9%15.9%7.2%15.0%17.1%17.6%16.8%
ROE to ordinary shareholders ((NPAT - AT1 profit) / avg equity)—15.0%14.1%5.2%13.0%15.2%16.0%15.4%
Book value per share (BDT)17.7919.6521.3521.0523.0325.4129.8134.80
P/B at 17.3————0.8x0.7x0.6x0.5x
P/E at 17.3 (ordinary EPS)————6.1x4.7x3.9x3.5x
Cash dividend yield at 17.3————7.5%0.0%0.0%6.3%

Valuation

BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Book equity 31-Dec-2025 (bank)25,627——
Less: provision shortfall or BB-deferred provision (none)0——
Less: h x net NPI held at 31-Dec-20253,388——
Less: subsidiary write-down to adjusted book (Subsidiary sheet)919——
Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-202521,319——
Sustainable ROE (F01 G1): FY2028F to ordinary shareholders, credit cost at the long-run 1.6%
Add: half of any FY2028F credit cost excess over the long-run 1.6%, after tax0——
Normalised net profit to ordinary shareholders (FY2028F)5,549——
Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg equity FY2027-28F)15.4%——
Sustainable ROE used (own-history anchor, Assumptions; model FY2028F normalised ROE shown above for comparison)13.0%——
Growth the bank can fund: ROE_s x (1 - realistic payout)7.8%——
Terminal growth used = MIN(g, ROE_s x retention)7.0%——
Economic payout = 1 - g / ROE_s (cash + excess capital earning only Ke)46.2%——
Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.7x——
Explicit years on adjusted book (excess capital retained beyond the growth need earns Ke: value-neutral)
Net profit to ordinary shareholders4,0964,9025,549
Return on opening reported book (NP / opening equity)16.0%17.3%16.7%
Opening adjusted book (starts at ABV)21,31923,15425,315
Equity charge (Ke x opening adjusted book)3,2553,5353,865
Residual income = (ROE - Ke) x opening adjusted book152479369
Closing adjusted book = opening x (1 + ROE x g/ROE_s retention)23,15425,31527,595
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.870.750.65
PV of residual income132360241
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F733——
Adjusted book 31-Dec-2028 (RI basis)27,595——
PV of terminal excess return (P/ABV - 1) x adjusted book-4,943——
Residual-income value 31-Dec-202517,110——
Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid17,805——
Residual-income value per share (BDT)16.00——
Normalised ordinary EPS (normalised ROE x adjusted avg equity FY2025-26F / shares)2.64——
Justified P/E = payout x (1 + g) / (Ke - g)6.0x——
P/E leg per share (justified P/E x normalised EPS)15.80——
Weight: residual income80.0%——
Weight: justified P/E20.0%——
Going-concern value per share (BDT)15.96——
Probability of resolution p (value 0)3.0%——
Fair value per share, resolution-weighted (1 - p) x going concern (BDT)15.48——
Terminal share of RI value-28.9%——
Implied P/B on Sep-26 book (25.42)0.6x——
Implied P/ABV on Dec-25 adjusted book0.8x——
Implied P/E FY2026F (ordinary EPS)4.2x——
Implied P/E FY2027F (ordinary EPS)3.5x——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: RI / P/E / resolution-weighted blend9.2510.589.04
Base: RI / P/E / resolution-weighted blend16.0015.8015.48
Bull: RI / P/E / resolution-weighted blend25.7822.9824.72
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)16.18——
Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 17.3 (base Ke, g)13.8%——

WACC

Cost of equity inputValue
Risk-free rate: 10-yr BD T-bond cut-off yield9.3%
Raw beta: 2-yr weekly vs DSEX (104 returns to 29-Oct-2026, dividends added back)0.55
Blume-adjusted beta (DSEX; the higher of DSEX and DSES)0.70
Beta used (F01 G1 floor 0.8)0.80
Equity risk premium7.5%
Cost of equity, base (Rf + beta x ERP)15.3%
Scenario adjustment (active)0.0%
Cost of equity used (active scenario)15.3%
Terminal growth g before cap (active)7.0%

Sensitivity

Grid (row input x column input)Col 1Col 2Col 3 (base)Col 4Col 5
Grid A: cost of equity (rows) x sustainable ROE (columns); fair value per share
Ke \ ROE_s9.0%11.0%13.0%15.0%17.0%
Ke 13.27%10.614.620.326.231.9
Ke 14.27%9.512.717.622.627.5
Ke 15.27%8.611.315.519.924.2
Ke 16.27%7.810.113.817.821.6
Ke 17.27%7.29.212.516.119.5
Grid B (F02): NPI shock FY27-28 (rows; credit cost +half the NPI rise, haircut h +/-25pp per 2pp) x Mudaraba distribution ratio shock FY27-28 (columns); fair value per share
NPI \ distribution ratio-10.0-5.00.05.010.0
NPI -2.0pp18.818.418.117.717.3
NPI -1.0pp17.517.116.716.416.0
NPI +0.0pp16.215.815.515.114.7
NPI +1.0pp15.014.614.313.913.5
NPI +2.0pp13.813.413.112.712.4
Grid C: NPI haircut h (rows) x credit cost FY27-28 shock (columns); fair value per share
h \ credit cost-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
h 50%16.716.115.514.914.3
h 75%15.314.714.213.613.1
h 100%13.913.412.912.411.9

Dividend rule

BDT mn unless statedFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Paid-up capital now (BDT mn)11,129.7——
Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn)20,000——
Gap to threshold (BDT mn)8,870.3——
Cumulative stock dividend needed79.7%——
Route (a), base: stock dividends 35% for FY2026 and 34% for FY2027, no cash; FY2028 20% of NPAT in cash + equal stock
Stock dividend rate35.0%34.0%0.0%
Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year15,02520,13420,134
Stock dividend amount (capitalised from retained earnings)3,8955,1090
Retained earnings available before the bonus (bank)5,7756,7817,222
Shares after (mn)1,502.52,013.42,013.4
Ordinary EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)2.732.432.76
Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares)11.478.568.56
Memo: FY2025 cash dividend under the old rules (13% of face)1,447——
Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap (alternative; not in the base)
New shares (mn)887.0——
Proceeds (BDT mn)8,870——
Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT)11.83——
Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT)-2.19——
Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 17.3 (BDT)14.06——
CRAR FY2027F after the bonus (bonus moves no capital)—14.4%—
Ownership (31-Dec-2025)
Sponsors and directors' holding43.1%——
Institutions24.5%——
General public32.5%——

Subsidiary

BDT mnFY2025FY2024
Total assets6,108.36,091.6
Receivable from clients (margin investments)3,200.93,350.9
Shareholders' equity2,789.32,787.5
Net profit after tax1.85.3
Bank's holding91.8%—
Group provision shortfall deducted from consolidated CET11,050.7837.6
Subsidiary equity net of the shortfall1,738.6—
Bank's share of that equity (value on own fundamentals: ROE 0.1%, so at most book)1,595.8—
Write-down vs carrying cost 2,515 (deducted from adjusted book)919.2—
Carrying cost / bank equity FY20259.8%—

FAQ

What is Shahjalal Islami Bank's (SHAHJABANK) fair value?
We estimate BDT 9–25 a share, base 16 and probability-weighted 16, against 17.3 on 29-Oct-2026, from residual income on adjusted book (80%) and a justified P/E (20%), weighted for a 3% resolution probability.
Does Shahjalal Islami Bank have a Bangladesh Bank-deferred provision shortfall?
No. At December 2025 required provision for investments was BDT 12.58bn and maintained 12.60bn; the auditor reports the bank maintained the provision required by Bangladesh Bank's letter of 5 April 2026.
Can SJIBL pay a cash dividend for 2026?
Not under the current rule: Bangladesh Bank's SPCD circular 06 bars cash dividends while paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore. SJIBL's is Tk1,113 crore and its authorised capital Tk1,500 crore, so it needs about 80% more shares and an authorised-capital increase first.
What is the Mudaraba distribution ratio?
In 2025 SJIBL paid Mudaraba depositors BDT 14.2bn, 73.8% of the distributable investment income from the Mudaraba fund. Its cost of deposits was 4.44%, against a 6.21% system deposit rate.
Is the brokerage subsidiary material?
It earned BDT 1.8mn in 2025 (16.8mn before a margin provision), so not for earnings; its BDT 2.52bn cost is about 10% of the bank's equity. Net of a BDT 1.05bn group provision shortfall we value the bank's stake at about BDT 1.6bn and deduct the difference from book.

Sources

  1. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC Annual Integrated Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025); page numbers are PDF pages · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC audited financial statements 2025 (consolidated and separate, with notes) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC un-audited financial statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  4. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC un-audited financial statements, half year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC un-audited financial statements, quarter to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC audited financial statements 2023 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. Shahjalal Islami Bank Limited Annual Report 2020 (five-year ratios FY2016-20) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC un-audited statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2024 (with 9M 2023) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  9. Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC un-audited statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2023 (with 9M 2022) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  10. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive for SHAHJABANK, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, record dates, sub bond decision, sponsor transfers, ratings, quarterly results) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  11. Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  12. AnalystBro market data: DSE weekly and daily prices (SHAHJABANK, DSEX, DSES), 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  13. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction page, 29-Oct-2026 (10-year bond cut-off 9.2680% on 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  14. Bangladesh Bank, Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026 (Table-7 Islamic banks' deposits; Table-102) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  15. The Financial Express, 'After long merger process, Sammilito Islami Bank launches operations' · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  16. The Business Standard, 'HC rejects writ against merger of five troubled Islamic banks' · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  17. AnalystBro model (workbook on this page) · accessed 2026-10-31

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