Jamuna Bank valuation report: fair value BDT 8.8–28.7 (Oct 2026)

Fair value BDT 9–29, base 17: the price of 23.5 assumes a 15% sustainable ROE against our 12%

We put Jamuna Bank's (JAMUNABANK) fair value at BDT 9–29, base 17 (probability-weighted 17.9), against a price of 23.5. Standalone net profit doubled to BDT 5.58bn in FY2025 from 2.79bn, an EPS of 5.94 against 2.97 [1 p.14]. Most of that jump came from below the operating line. Profit before tax rose only 19% (BDT 6.94bn against 5.85bn), while the tax charge fell from BDT 3.05bn (52% of pre-tax profit) to 1.36bn (20%) [1 p.14]. Inside pre-tax profit, investment income included BDT 3.11bn of gains on selling government securities, against 0.37bn in 2024 [1 p.59]. The first half of 2026 was stronger again: net profit of BDT 3.77bn, EPS 4.01 against 3.30, with provisions of only BDT 0.43bn [2 p.8]. The third quarter was weaker: standalone net profit of BDT 1.23bn (EPS 1.31) against 1.95bn in the second quarter, as provisions rose to BDT 0.72bn and the tax rate to 47% [3 p.8]; nine-month EPS was 5.31 against 4.43.

Jamuna is now a bond-carry bank with thin equity. Loans fell 8.8% in six months to BDT 161bn while deposits rose 8.9% to 392bn, and investments grew from BDT 202bn to 255bn [2 p.6]. Loans are only 41% of deposits. Equity is 6% of assets, so the bank is levered about 16 times: a 0.5pp change in the gap between what its assets earn and what its deposits cost moves annual pre-tax profit by about BDT 2bn, a third of it. We forecast EPS of BDT 5.94 in FY2026F, then 4.28 in FY2027F and 4.75 in FY2028F as bond yields reprice lower, the tax rate returns towards the 37.5% statutory rate, and credit cost returns to 1.2% of loans from 0.9% in the first nine months of 2026.

Value rests on the sustainable ROE; after the perpetual-bond coupon Jamuna's FY2022–25 median is 10.6%. Its reported ROE was 14.8%, 12.9%, 10.9%, 7.7% and 11.9% in FY2019–23 [4 p.257], and we calculate 13.3% for FY2024 and 23.4% for FY2025 [10]: a median of 12.9%. FY2025 is the peak, not the norm. After the BDT 400mn coupon on its perpetual bond, which ordinary shareholders pay before they get anything, our sustainable ROE on that basis is 11.7% (FY2022–25 after coupon: 6.0%, 9.8%, 11.4%, 21.7%). Against a 16.1% cost of equity that justifies 0.61x adjusted book. The price implies a sustainable ROE of about 14.8%, a level Jamuna reached after the coupon only in FY2025. We rate uncertainty very high: leverage makes the range wide.

No cash dividend for FY2026. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular No. 06 of 23 May 2026 bars any cash dividend from the FY2026 accounts onward while paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore [6]. Jamuna's paid-up capital is Tk939 crore [1 p.52], so it needs 113% more shares. The FY2025 cash dividend of 29% (BDT 2.90, a 12.3% yield at 23.5) [5] is the last one in view. The stock rose 42% in two years against 3% for the DSEX [7]. The latest period in this report is the nine months to 30 September 2026.

Gross investment income of BDT 19.6bn overtook loan interest of 18.0bn in 2025; loans are now 41% of deposits

Jamuna Bank PLC is a mid-sized Bangladeshi private commercial bank founded in 2001, with 170 branches (two of them Islamic) and 114 sub-branches at end-2025 [1 p.18]. Total assets were BDT 465bn at June 2026 [2 p.6]. It makes money in three ways. First, corporate and trade lending: BDT 177bn of loans at end-2025, of which large and medium industry 24%, working capital 21%, commercial credit 20% and export credit 10%; 81% of loans are booked in urban Dhaka [1 p.41]. Second, treasury: BDT 194bn of government securities at end-2025 [1 p.12]; the bank is a primary dealer and held BDT 1,507 crore of liquid assets above the statutory requirement for that business [1 p.34]. Third, trade services and foreign exchange: BDT 1.74bn of commissions (half of them on letters of credit and bills) and 2.72bn of exchange gains in 2025 [1 p.60]. An offshore banking unit and two small capital-market subsidiaries complete the group.

The balance sheet has turned from loans to bonds. Loans were BDT 189bn at end-2024 and fell to 177bn at end-2025 and 161bn at June 2026, while investments rose from BDT 128bn to 202bn and 255bn [s1 p.12; s2 p.6]. Small and cottage industry loans fell from BDT 17.8bn to 3.3bn in 2025 and rural loans from 18.4bn to 7.1bn [1 p.41]. The DSE explanation for the Q2 2026 result credits "increased investment income, reduced provisioning" [5]. Bangladesh's banking system grew loans only 4.3% in the year to June 2026 while deposits grew 10.7% [9], so surplus deposits across the system went into treasury bills and bonds, and Jamuna went further than most.

How we model the two income lines. From 2025 Jamuna deducts the funding cost of the bonds it holds for trading (BDT 6.76bn in 2025) from investment income instead of showing it in interest expense [1 p.59]. Reported net interest income was therefore only BDT 0.33bn in 2025 [1 p.14]. We add the amount back to both lines, so every year is on the same gross basis, and we use net funded income (net interest income plus investment income) as the margin line. It rose from BDT 12.6bn in 2024 to 13.1bn in 2025 and 8.5bn in the first half of 2026 alone [s1 p.14; s2 p.8]. We forecast it at BDT 16.7bn for FY2026F and 16.9bn for FY2028F, with investment income at 64% of gross earning-asset income by FY2028F.

Fees and exchange income fell back in 2026. Commission, exchange and other income rose 26% to BDT 5.9bn in 2025, helped by exchange gains of BDT 2.72bn and BDT 0.54bn of recoveries from written-off loans [1 p.60]. In H1 2026 it fell 33% to BDT 2.45bn [2 p.8], as exchange margins narrowed. Nine-month fees were BDT 3.81bn against 4.68bn [3 p.8]. We assume Q4 matches Q4 2025, so the full year falls 15% to BDT 5.02bn, and growth resumes at 8–9% a year with trade volumes.

Neither subsidiary passes the 10% test: together they cost the group BDT 16mn of profit in 2025

Jamuna owns two subsidiaries: Jamuna Bank Capital Management Ltd, a merchant bank (issue management, portfolio management, underwriting), and Jamuna Bank Securities Ltd, a stockbroker [1 p.18]. The bank's investment in them is BDT 1,000mn and 400mn at cost [1 p.45]. Consolidated net profit was BDT 5,562mn in 2025 against 5,579mn for the bank alone, so the two together reduced group profit by BDT 16.5mn (0.3%) after eliminations [s1 p.9, p.14]. Jamuna Bank Securities earned BDT 16mn of brokerage commission in 2025 [1 p.60]; the merchant bank's book is funded mainly by borrowing from the parent, whose interest (BDT 142mn) is eliminated on consolidation [1 p.59]. Consolidated equity was BDT 25,764mn against 25,853mn standalone at end-2025 [s2 p.1; s1 p.12]: the subsidiaries' net assets are about BDT 88mn below their cost, and we deduct that in the adjusted book. Neither reaches 10% of profit, assets or value, so we value the bank on its standalone accounts and do not use a sum of the parts; the skill's rule calls for it only when a part is material and valued differently.

The offshore banking unit sits inside the standalone bank: total assets of BDT 16.4bn (3.8% of the bank), funded by BDT 7.0bn of foreign borrowing, with BDT 255mn of profit before provisions in 2025 [s1 p.86, p.88]. The two Islamic branches are also small [1 p.94].

Jamuna's deposit cost rose to 6.70% in 2025; half its deposits are fixed deposits costing about 10%

Deposit cost is the line that matters most. The bank reports a cost of deposit of 6.70% for 2025, up from 5.90% in 2024 [1 p.83], against a weighted average deposit rate of 4.64–4.75% in 2022–23 [4 p.94]. The mix explains it. Fixed deposits were BDT 179bn of 360bn at end-2025 (50%), up from 144bn, and cost BDT 16.1bn of interest in 2025, about 10% of their average balance; savings deposits of BDT 36bn cost 1.6% [s1 p.12, p.59]. Current and savings accounts were 28% of deposits at end-2025 and 35% at June 2026 [s1 p.12; s2 p.6], when current and other accounts jumped from BDT 64bn to 97bn. Interest on deposits before the trading-bond deduction was BDT 23.0bn in 2025 against 15.9bn in 2024 [1 p.59]: a 45% rise on 16% more deposits.

Our rate path. Including subordinated bonds and other borrowings, the gross cost of funds was 3.7% in 2022, 3.8% in 2023, 5.3% in 2024 and 6.6% in 2025 [10]. Over those years it rose 2.9pp while Jamuna's blended yield on loans and investments, excluding the 2025 bond gains, rose 2.6pp: a pass-through of about 1.1 on the way up. On the way down deposit costs have lagged: in the year to June 2026 the system deposit rate fell 0.10pp while the lending rate fell 0.20pp, about 0.5. The system deposit rate was 6.21% in June 2026, down from 6.31% a year earlier, while the system lending rate fell from 12.33% to 12.13% [9]. The 364-day T-bill cut off at 8.79% and the 10-year bond at 9.27% in October 2026 [8]. We assume a gross cost of funds of 6.3% in Q4 2026, then 6.0% in FY2027F and 5.9% in FY2028F. For FY2027–28F we use the down-cycle 0.5 as a repricing lag: half the fall we assume in the asset yield: investments from 10.2% to 9.5% and 9.2%, and loans from 10.8% to 10.0%.

Deposits and loans. Deposits grew 27% in 2024, 16% in 2025 and 14.6% in the nine months to September 2026, to BDT 413bn [s1 p.12; s3 p.6]; we forecast 2% in Q4 2026 and 9% a year after, close to the system's 10.7% [9]. Loans fell to BDT 161bn by September 2026 [3 p.6]; we hold them flat in Q4 2026 and grow them 5% and 7% in FY2027–28F, so loans stay near 36% of deposits and the balance goes into government securities.

Profit before tax rose 19% in 2025 but tax fell 55%; we forecast an effective tax rate of 38% from FY2027F

What drove 2025. Net funded income rose 4% to BDT 13.1bn and fees 26% to 5.9bn, so operating income rose 10% to 19.0bn [1 p.14]. Operating expenses rose 15% to BDT 9.9bn, with staff costs up 22% as bonuses almost doubled to BDT 1.13bn and gratuity rose to 0.48bn [1 p.61]. Provisions fell to BDT 2.16bn from 2.82bn: the bank released BDT 3.37bn of general provision and booked 5.36bn of specific provision [1 p.49]. The tax charge fell to BDT 1.36bn, 19.6% of pre-tax profit, from 3.05bn (52%) in 2024 [1 p.14]. The bank's tax schedule shows the 2023–25 years still unassessed, with BDT 6.36bn provided for them [1 p.82]. The accounts we hold do not explain the low 2025 rate, so we treat it as non-recurring.

What drove H1 2026. Net profit rose 21% to BDT 3.77bn [2 p.8]. Net funded income rose 35% to BDT 8.53bn as the bond book grew, provisions fell from BDT 1.08bn to 0.43bn (0.5% of loans annualised), and fees fell 33%. The effective tax rate was 32.4%. In Q3 2026 net profit fell to BDT 1.23bn from 1.95bn in Q2: provisions rose to BDT 0.72bn (1.8% of loans annualised) and the tax rate to 47%, while fees rose to BDT 1.36bn [3 p.8]. Nine-month net profit was BDT 4.99bn, up 20%.

Our forecast. FY2026F net profit is BDT 5.58bn: the nine-month actual of 4.99bn plus Q4 of BDT 0.59bn. Q4 is lower than Q3 mainly because of costs: in 2025 Q4 operating expenses were BDT 3.33bn against an average of 2.20bn in the first three quarters [s1 p.14; s3 p.8]. We have checked this for 2025 only (the FY2024 quarterly split is not in our corpus text), so it is one year of evidence. Q4 2025 profit (BDT 1.42bn) was lifted by a provision write-back of 0.43bn and a tax credit of 0.83bn, which we do not repeat; we charge 1.2% credit cost and a 38% tax rate. In FY2027F profit falls to BDT 4.02bn. Investment yields reprice from about 10.2% to 9.5% as 2024–25 bonds mature into 8.6–9.3% paper, and funding cost follows at 0.5 times. Credit cost returns to 1.2% (the FY2022–25 average was 1.33%), and the tax rate to 38%, between the 37.5% statutory rate and the FY2022–24 average of 50%. Cost-to-income rises to 59% with staff costs up 10% a year.

NPL fell from 6.92% to 3.94% in 2025 with BDT 4.3bn of write-offs; provisions meet the requirement with no deferral

Classified loans halved in 2025. Gross NPL fell from BDT 13.1bn (6.92%) to 7.0bn (3.94%) [1 p.83]; bad and loss loans fell from BDT 11.4bn to 5.1bn [1 p.41]. Three things did it. The bank wrote off BDT 4.3bn of loans (cumulative write-offs rose from 12.3bn to 16.6bn) [1 p.42]. Bangladesh Bank's BRPD Circular 07 of September 2025 allowed eligible loans to be rescheduled under policy support, keeping the old specific provision as a general provision [1 p.3]. And the classified amounts are round figures (for example, bad loans of BDT 5,136.2mn) [1 p.41], which suggests they follow a Bangladesh Bank inspection. Meanwhile, interest suspense, which is unpaid interest on stressed loans, rose 58% to BDT 4.64bn [1 p.49].

Provisions and the audit report. Required provision was BDT 10.41bn, including 1.86bn of additional provision required by Bangladesh Bank and the external auditor [1 p.42]. The bank held 9.28bn against loans plus 1.13bn against off-balance-sheet exposures, exactly the requirement [1 p.49]. There is no shortfall and no provision deferral. The auditor's report is unmodified, with an emphasis of matter on Bangladesh Bank's loan-classification and provisioning rules, and loan provisioning is the first key audit matter [s1 p.2–3]. Specific provision of BDT 7.20bn exceeded classified loans of 6.96bn at end-2025 [1 p.42], so net NPL is nil and our adjusted book takes no NPL haircut. The June 2026 interim does not disclose NPL.

Our forecast and the outside view. The system's overdue loans were 34% of outstanding loans in June 2026 [9], so Jamuna's 3.94% looks clean, but it rests on write-offs, rescheduling and a shrinking book. We take NPL back to 5.0%, 5.5% and 6.0% of loans in FY2026–28F (bear 6.5–8.5%) and charge credit cost of 1.2% in Q4 2026 and after (nine months 2026: 0.9% annualised, Q3 alone 1.8% [3 p.8]). Every 0.5pp of credit cost on FY2027F loans is about BDT 0.8bn before tax.

Paid-up capital of Tk939 crore bars cash dividends from FY2026; 113% more shares are needed to reach Tk2,000 crore

The rule. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular No. 06 of 23 May 2026 says a bank whose paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore may not pay any cash dividend; a bank above the line may pay at most 50% of its total declared dividend in cash. It applies to dividends for the year ending 31 December 2026 and later [6]. Jamuna's paid-up capital is Tk939 crore (939.3mn shares of Tk10) and its authorised capital Tk1,500 crore [1 p.52]. To reach Tk2,000 crore it needs 113% more shares, and an EGM to raise authorised capital first.

Capital actions in the last 24 months. FY2024: 17.5% cash and 6.5% stock (record date 14-May-2025). FY2025: 29% cash (BDT 2.90 a share; record date 3-Jun-2026, paid by 31-Aug-2026) [5]. In April 2025 the board approved (DSE announcement, 21-Apr-2025) a fifth subordinated bond of up to BDT 1,000 crore; BSEC consented on 28 September 2025 (DSE announcement, 29-Sep-2025) to Jamuna Bank Subordinated Bond-V of BDT 8,000mn, floating rate, by private placement [5]. Subordinated bonds rose from BDT 3.0bn to 5.9bn in 2025 [1 p.52], and a further BDT 1.69bn was issued in H1 2026 [2 p.10]. There was no rights issue and no change in authorised capital. The chair changed twice, per DSE announcements: Md. Belal Hossain (6-Nov-2025) and Md. Mahmudul Hoque from 29 October 2026 (29-Oct-2026) [5]. Directors and sponsors held 41.0% at end-2025, down from 45.2% [1 p.53].

Routes to Tk2,000 crore. Stock dividends of 15% a year, about twice the 6.5–8.5% it paid in FY2022–24 [1 p.53], would take 5.4 years, so the first cash dividend would be for about FY2031. A rights issue at the Tk10 par for the whole gap would need 1,061mn new shares, about 1.13 for every share held, raising BDT 10.6bn. Our base value per post-rights share would be BDT 11.3, and a holder who subscribes would lose about BDT 4.4 of value per existing share, because new capital at a justified 0.61x book is worth less than the Tk10 paid. The theoretical ex-rights price at 23.5 would be BDT 16.34. Our base case assumes no cash dividend in FY2026–28F, so all profit is retained.

Capital ratios. CRAR was 16.75% and CET1 about 10.9% at end-2025 against a 12.5% minimum CRAR, a surplus of BDT 9.1bn [1 p.54]. Government securities carry no credit risk weight, so with loans falling and all profit retained we forecast CRAR of 20.6% in FY2026F and 21.3% in FY2028F. Retained capital that earns less than the cost of equity lowers value: if Jamuna could still pay 45% of profit in cash, our base value would be BDT 19.3 instead of 17.1.

We forecast net profit of BDT 5.6bn in FY2026F and 4.5bn in FY2028F, with ROE falling to 13%

Every line has its own driver (Assumptions sheet). Loan interest is the loan yield times average loans. Investment income is the gross bond yield times the average investment book, which is the balance-sheet plug. Interest expense is the gross cost of funds times average deposits and other liabilities. Fees grow from their own base; staff and other costs grow separately; provisions are credit cost times average loans; tax is an effective rate. The Q4 2026 forecast starts from the 30 September 2026 balance sheet [3 p.6]. Equity rolls forward with profit, less the BDT 400mn perpetual-bond coupon. September 2026 equity of BDT 28.19bn is already after the BDT 2.72bn FY2025 dividend and a BDT 1.03bn rise in other reserves in Q3 [3 p.6], so book value per share reaches BDT 30.53 at end-2026 and 38.71 at end-2028.

Net profit for FY2026F agrees with the latest actuals: the nine-month standalone profit of BDT 4.99bn is filed [3 p.8], and the model adds only Q4 (BDT 0.59bn) from the September balance sheet.

Fair value BDT 9–29, base 17: a 11.7% sustainable ROE against a 16.1% cost of equity justifies 0.61x book

Method. Residual income on adjusted book (80%) and a justified P/E on normalised earnings (20%), per our bank format. Cost of equity is 16.1%: the 10-year bond yield of 9.27% [8] plus a Blume-adjusted beta of 0.91 (2-year weekly against the DSEX, raw 0.87, R² 0.28) times a 7.5% equity risk premium [7]. Adjusted book at end-2025 is BDT 25.76bn: book of 25.85bn, no NPL haircut (specific provision exceeds NPL), less BDT 88mn to bring the subsidiaries to their own net assets. The cost of equity is charged on adjusted book in every year. We drop a peer P/B leg: the peers' book values we have come from the screener on a consolidated basis, not from their filings on Jamuna's standalone basis, so the table below is context only. A sum of the parts does not apply (no part above 10%).

Sustainable ROE. We start from FY2028F profit after the perpetual coupon (BDT 4.06bn), mark the bond book to the 10-year yield less 1pp (8.3%). Over a full cycle funding cost follows the market fully (pass-through 1.0: Jamuna's own 2022–25 ratio was 1.10 excluding the 2025 bond gains, and half its deposits are fixed deposits that reprice within a year), so the markdown is offset and changes profit by BDT 0mn. The 0.5 lag is used only in the FY2027–28F path, so the squeeze is not counted twice. Credit cost is set to its 1.3% FY2022–25 average (BDT -54mn). That gives 11.7% on average FY2027–28F adjusted equity. The FY2028F bond yield (9.2%) is a book yield with no trading gains; FY2025's 11.9% gross included BDT 3.1bn of gains (10.0% without them), and the 9M 2026 gains are not disclosed. Jamuna's own ROE has a median of 12.9% over FY2019–25 (range 7.7–23.4%), and 10.6% over FY2022–25 after the coupon. Our 11.7%, on the after-coupon basis, sits a little above that median; FY2025's 23% came with a 20% tax rate and BDT 3.1bn of bond gains. Terminal growth follows the low-ROE rule: g = min(7%, ROE × retention). Jamuna paid out 52%, 83%, 60%, 55% and 49% of profit in cash in FY2021–25 [s4 p.94; s5; s1 p.14], an average retention of 40%, so self-funded growth is 4.7%. The 7% cap does not bind in any scenario. The economic payout is then 1 − g/ROE = 60%; capital retained beyond that earns only the cost of equity and adds no value. The P/E leg uses the same g and payout: 5.5x on normalised EPS of BDT 3.39, giving BDT 18.6, close to the residual-income BDT 16.7.

Residual income. Profit after the coupon exceeds the equity charge in FY2026F (BDT 1037mn) and falls short in FY2027–28F (-978 and -1124mn), because retained profit raises equity faster than earnings. The terminal term is negative (BDT -8.9bn) because 11.7% is below the 16.1% cost of equity. Value at end-2025 is BDT 16.28bn; rolled forward to October 2026 and net of the BDT 2.72bn dividend paid, it is BDT 16.7 a share. The blend is BDT 17.1, or 0.57x September 2026 standalone book.

Scenarios move the same drivers as the risk table, symmetrically. The bear case has investment and loan yields 0.1–0.2pp lower and funding cost 0.1–0.2pp higher: a 0.4pp narrower spread, about the size of Jamuna's yearly spread moves in 2023–25 (+0.6, +0.5, −0.5pp). It also has credit cost 0.3–0.4pp higher, tax at 42%, fees and deposits weaker. The bull case reverses each move. The cost of equity is the same in all three cases; a 1pp higher cost of equity is a separate risk row. Each scenario's FY2026–28F results run through the forecast; for the long run, half of its deviation from the base sustainable ROE persists and half fades. With equity at 6% of assets, a three-year shock would otherwise become a permanent extreme. Bear sustainable ROE is 8.5% and bull 14.8%, against an after-coupon FY2022–25 range of 6.0–21.7% and a median of 10.6%, symmetric around the base.

Reconciling the legs and the price. Residual income (BDT 16.7) and the justified P/E (BDT 18.6) agree because both use the same sustainable ROE, g and payout. The P/E leg's 5.5x is below the bank's year-end P/E of 3.6–10.0x in FY2021–25 [s4 p.94; s1 p.83], several of them floor-price years, which we do not use. The market price of 23.5 implies a sustainable ROE of about 14.8%, or the FY2025 earnings power lasting. Funding-cost pass-through is the most important judgement. Jamuna's own 2022–25 ratio was about 1.1 (bond gains excluded) and the system's recent down-cycle ratio about 0.5. We treat the 0.5 as a lag in FY2027–28F and use full pass-through for the long run. With a long-run pass-through of 50% base value would be BDT 13.8; at 80%, 15.7; at 100% (our base), 17.1.

Funding cost is the largest risk: 0.5pp higher takes 36% off base fair value

Each risk below is a workbook recalculation with one input changed from the base case, and names the line it moves. Rate shocks run through FY2027–28F and half persists into the sustainable ROE. Funding cost dominates because deposits and other liabilities of about BDT 437bn at June 2026 [2 p.6] are 15 times equity: 0.5pp on that base is about BDT 2.2bn a year before tax, roughly a quarter of our FY2027F pre-tax profit (BDT 6.5bn). Lower loan growth barely moves value, because new loans earn little more than bonds after credit cost.

Context risks that move no line in our model: a reversal of Bangladesh Bank's policy-support rescheduling (BRPD 07/2025) that reclassifies loans [1 p.3]; bank-resolution and merger policy, which has moved deposits towards banks seen as safe; the open 2023–25 tax assessments [1 p.82]; and any change to the dividend rule itself. Per a DSE announcement of 7-Jun-2026, CRAB affirmed Jamuna at AA1 / ST-1 with a stable outlook [5].

• Q4 2026 provisions and tax: Q3 2026 had 1.8% credit cost and a 47% tax rate [3 p.8].
• FY2026 annual results (expected by April 2027): EPS near BDT 5.9, the effective tax rate, NPL and CRAR, and a stock dividend in place of cash.
• Quarterly funded income: below BDT 3.5bn a quarter would mean the spread is compressing faster than we assume.
• Any EGM to raise authorised capital or a rights issue towards Tk2,000 crore.
• Remaining issuance of the BDT 8bn Subordinated Bond-V and any recovery in lending.

FAQ

What is Jamuna Bank's (JAMUNABANK) fair value?

We estimate BDT 9–29 a share, base 17 and probability-weighted 18, against 23.5 on 29-Oct-2026. It blends residual income on adjusted book (80%) and a justified P/E on normalised earnings (20%), with a 11.7% sustainable ROE against a 16.1% cost of equity.

Why did Jamuna Bank's profit double in 2025?

Pre-tax profit rose 19% to BDT 6.94bn, helped by BDT 3.11bn of gains on selling government securities and lower provisions, but the bigger change was tax: the charge fell from BDT 3.05bn (52% of pre-tax profit) to 1.36bn (20%). Net profit rose from BDT 2.79bn to 5.58bn.

Can Jamuna Bank pay a cash dividend for 2026?

Not under the current rule. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD circular 06 of 23 May 2026 bars cash dividends for banks with paid-up capital below Tk2,000 crore from the FY2026 dividend onward, and Jamuna's is Tk939 crore. It needs 113% more shares, which means years of stock dividends or a large rights issue, and an EGM to raise its Tk1,500 crore authorised capital.

What does Jamuna Bank pay for deposits?

Its cost of deposit was 6.70% in 2025 against 5.90% in 2024. Fixed deposits are half of deposits and cost about 10% in 2025; savings deposits cost about 1.6%. The system deposit rate was 6.21% in June 2026.

Does Jamuna Bank have a provision shortfall or deferral?

No. At end-2025 it held BDT 9.28bn of loan provisions plus 1.13bn for off-balance-sheet exposures, equal to the BDT 10.41bn requirement, including 1.86bn of additional provision required by Bangladesh Bank and the auditor. Specific provisions exceeded classified loans. The auditor's opinion is unmodified, with an emphasis of matter on Bangladesh Bank's loan-classification rules.

Are Jamuna Bank's subsidiaries material?

No. Jamuna Bank Capital Management (merchant bank) and Jamuna Bank Securities (brokerage) together reduced 2025 group profit by BDT 16.5mn, 0.3% of the bank's, and their net assets are about BDT 88mn below cost, which we deduct.

Sources

1. Jamuna Bank PLC Annual Report 2025, audited consolidated and separate financial statements (103-page extract in our corpus; page numbers are PDF pages, printed page = PDF page + 556) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. Jamuna Bank PLC condensed consolidated and separate financial statements (un-audited), half year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Jamuna Bank PLC condensed consolidated and separate financial statements (un-audited), nine months to 30-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. Jamuna Bank PLC Annual Report 2023 (five-year data, directors' report and FY2022-23 statements; PDF pages) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive for JAMUNABANK, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, subordinated bond, Q1-Q3 2026 results, chairman changes, credit rating) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (JAMUNABANK, DSEX) and bank screener, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. Bangladesh Bank call money and treasury auction pages, 29 Oct 2026 (10-year bond cut-off 9.2680% on 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
9. Bangladesh Bank, Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026 (Tables 101-102) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
10. AnalystBro model (workbook on this page) · accessed 2026-10-31