Rupali Bank (RUPALIBANK) financial analysis: 39% NPL, Tk14,014 crore deferred provisions, CRAR 2.88% (Oct 2026)

Rupali Bank: 39.05% of loans classified, a Tk14,014 crore provision gap deferred by Bangladesh Bank and CRAR of 2.88%

The government owns 90.19% of Rupali Bank. The bank pays more interest than it earns, books a thin profit only because the regulator lets it leave Tk14,014.48 crore of provisions out of the accounts, and lost BDT 6.4bn in the first half of 2026. This note sets out the filings.

Company · Analysis · 29 Oct 2026 · FY2021-FY2025 annual + H1 2026 (to 30-Jun-2026) · By AnalystBro Team · 20 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 15.6
52-week closing rangeBDT 15.5-20.7
Market capBDT 7.61bn
Free float (non-government shares)9.81%, about BDT 747m at the last close
Shares487.93m
Paid-up capitalTk487.93 crore (below the Tk500 crore minimum)
Government holding90.19%
NAV per share (Jun-2026, standalone)BDT 21.44
NAV per share if 2025 provision shortfall bookedBDT -253.13 (Dec-2025)
Gross NPL (Dec-2025)39.05% (Tk20,015 crore)
Provision not recognised (Dec-2025)Tk14,014.48 crore, by BB letter of 30-Apr-2026
CRAR (solo)2.88% Dec-2025; 1.70% Jun-2026; minimum 12.5%
Auditor opinion FY2025Qualified (Mahfel Huq & Co., G. Kibria & Co.)
H1 2026 EPS (standalone)BDT -13.18
DividendNone for 2024 (regulator's directive)
Fiscal year end31 December

Investment considerations: a state-owned deposit franchise with 2.88% capital, negative interest margin and a Tk14,014 crore deferred provision gap

Rupali Bank PLC is one of Bangladesh's state-owned commercial banks and is listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. The Government of Bangladesh holds 90.19% of its 487.93 million shares; general public and institutions hold the other 9.81%, and none of the directors holds shares [3 p.184]. At 30 June 2026 the bank reported loans of BDT 521.4bn, deposits of BDT 740.3bn, government securities of BDT 214.6bn and shareholders' equity of BDT 10.5bn on a standalone balance sheet of BDT 877.9bn [2 p.8].

The filings describe a bank that is large in deposits and small in capital. Equity was 1.97% of assets at Dec-2025 and 1.19% at Jun-2026 [17]. The FY2025 audit opinion is qualified because the bank did not recognise BDT 14,014.48 crore of required provisions, which Bangladesh Bank (BB) authorised by letter no. BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263 of 30 April 2026 [1 p.2]. The auditors also drew attention to CRAR of 2.88% (solo) against the 12.5% requirement, paid-up capital of BDT 487.93 crore against the BDT 500 crore minimum, and BDT 679.99 crore of share money deposit that has not been converted into shares [1 p.3]. Reported profit for 2025 was BDT 49.8m [1 p.18]; in the first half of 2026 the bank lost BDT 6,433.4m [2 p.10].

What an investor would weigh on the positive side

  • Deposits keep growing: BDT 685.9bn at Dec-2024, BDT 720.6bn at Dec-2025 and BDT 740.3bn at Jun-2026, with savings deposits up from BDT 126.2bn to BDT 151.4bn over the same period [1 p.16] [2 p.8].
  • The owner is the state: the Government holds 90.19% [3 p.184], and BB has twice allowed the bank to leave provision shortfalls out of its statements, for FY2024 [3 p.78] and FY2025 [1 p.2].
  • Liquidity is not the problem it is at private stressed banks: borrowings from other banks were only BDT 6.0bn at Dec-2025 and BDT 14.0bn at Jun-2026, and government securities rose to BDT 214.6bn [2 p.8]. The highlights page reports a liquidity coverage ratio of 431.33% [1 p.112].
  • Classified loans fell for the first time in four years, from BDT 213.6bn to BDT 200.2bn in 2025, as sub-standard and doubtful loans fell [1 p.70].
  • The authorised capital was raised from Tk700 crore to Tk2,500 crore [1 p.112], making room for the Government's share money to become shares.

What an investor would weigh on the negative side

  • The provision gap is 8.4 times equity. Booked, equity at Dec-2025 would be about BDT -124bn, or BDT -253 a share, before tax effects [1 p.2] [17].
  • The spread business loses money: interest paid was 1.50x interest earned in 2025 and 2.04x in H1 2026 [1 p.18] [2 p.10] [17].
  • Capital is far below the minimum: CRAR fell from 5.56% in 2021 to 2.88% in 2025 and 1.70% at Jun-2026 [5 p.366] [1 p.112] [2 p.46].
  • H1 2026 wiped out a third of equity: equity fell from BDT 16.6bn to BDT 10.5bn and retained earnings turned to BDT -6,384m [2 p.8].
  • The free float is small: 9.81% of shares [3 p.184], about BDT 747m at the last close [17]. TBS reported on 19-May-2026 that DSE had moved the share to the 'Z' category [12].
  • No cash dividend is possible under BB's new rule while paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore; Rupali's is 75.6% short of that line [6 p.1] [17].
Exhibit 1RUPALIBANK closed at BDT 15.6 on 29-Oct-2026, near the bottom of its 52-week range
BDT
0510.015.020.0Oct 25Dec 25Feb 26Apr 26Jun 26Aug 26Oct 26
Data
Oct 25Nov 25Dec 25Jan 26Feb 26Mar 26Apr 26May 26Jun 26Jul 26Aug 26Sep 26Oct 26
RUPALIBANK19.3017.6017.3019.3019.8017.8017.2016.2017.1017.3016.9016.9015.60
Source: Daily closes [11] · Last close of each month in the feed; last bar 29-Oct-2026
Exhibit 2Key data
ItemValue
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 15.6
52-week closing rangeBDT 15.5-20.7
Market capBDT 7.61bn
Free float (non-government shares)9.81%, about BDT 747m at the last close
Shares487.93m
Paid-up capitalTk487.93 crore (below the Tk500 crore minimum)
Government holding90.19%
NAV per share (Jun-2026, standalone)BDT 21.44
NAV per share if 2025 provision shortfall bookedBDT -253.13 (Dec-2025)
Gross NPL (Dec-2025)39.05% (Tk20,015 crore)
Provision not recognised (Dec-2025)Tk14,014.48 crore, by BB letter of 30-Apr-2026
CRAR (solo)2.88% Dec-2025; 1.70% Jun-2026; minimum 12.5%
Auditor opinion FY2025Qualified (Mahfel Huq & Co., G. Kibria & Co.)
H1 2026 EPS (standalone)BDT -13.18
DividendNone for 2024 (regulator's directive)
Fiscal year end31 December
Source: Market data [11]; filings [1] [2] [3]; model [17]

Business: a state-owned deposit gatherer whose loan book stopped paying, kept afloat by government securities

Rupali Bank takes deposits from government bodies, state enterprises and households and lends to state corporations and private companies. It also holds a large book of government securities and runs trade services: export of BDT 2,594.69 crore, import of BDT 10,192.90 crore and foreign remittance of BDT 14,824.51 crore in 2025 [1 p.112]. Two subsidiaries, Rupali Investment Limited and Rupali Bank Securities Limited, are consolidated in the group accounts [1 p.8]. The bank also has an Islamic banking window, which held only BDT 12.8m of deposits at Dec-2025 [1 p.83].

What changed in five years is the loan book. Classified loans were BDT 66.7bn (17.50% of loans) in 2021, rose to BDT 100.4bn (21.03%) in 2023 and more than doubled to BDT 213.6bn (41.60%) in 2024 [5 p.366] [3 p.297]. Interest on a classified loan is not taken to income, so interest income stopped keeping pace with the interest the bank pays on deposits. Net interest income was already negative in 2021 (BDT -3,343m), but the gap widened to BDT -15,754m in 2025 [5 p.269] [1 p.18] [17]. The bank stayed in profit because investment income, mostly interest on government securities, rose from BDT 14.1bn to BDT 22.9bn over the same years [5 p.269] [1 p.18].

The state's role runs through both sides of the balance sheet. On the funding side, about half of deposits come from the public sector (note 12.06) [1 p.83]. On the lending side, TBS reported in December 2025, citing documents it reviewed and BB data, that the largest defaulters include Bangladesh Sugar and Food Industries Corporation as well as private groups such as Blue Planet, Beximco and Crony Apparels, and that 32 large clients accounted for Tk14,156 crore of defaults [13]. These borrower details are from one outlet and are not in the filings we read.

Exhibit 3Five years of standalone results: profit before provisions shrank from BDT 5.5bn in 2023 to BDT 1.1bn in 2025
20212022202320242025
Interest income22,36824,24429,00433,94831,764
Interest paid on deposits, borrowings etc.25,71127,30931,84740,60947,518
Net interest income-3,343-3,065-2,842-6,660-15,754
Investment income14,08815,25115,29317,89822,921
Commission, exchange, brokerage1,9291,9432,3672,2173,684
Other operating income5717921,4691,1981,383
Total operating income13,24514,92116,28714,65212,234
Total operating expenses12,05813,85410,82811,47411,156
Profit before provision1,1871,0675,4593,1791,078
Total provisions4694414,1402,839603
Provision for taxation360417776257424
Net profit after tax358.0209.3543.582.949.8
Source: AR2022 p.269, AR2023 p.287, AR2025 p.18 [5] [4] [1]; model [17] · BDT mn, standalone
Exhibit 4The balance sheet, 2021-2025
20212022202320242025
Total assets665,248686,727793,508806,600846,286
Total deposits576,431588,676667,318685,898720,622
Loans and advances380,834435,401477,601513,422512,527
Classified loans66,66592,248100,438213,578200,150
Total capital (Tier-I + Tier-II)23,66622,23124,58816,63717,160
Required capital (10% of RWA)42,52845,19046,52756,34659,630
Profit after tax358.0209.3543.582.949.8
Source: Highlights pages AR2022 p.366, AR2024 p.297, AR2025 p.112 · BDT mn; highlights are printed in crore and converted

Line items: interest paid was 1.50x interest earned in 2025, and government securities carried the result

Interest income. Interest income rose from BDT 22.4bn in 2021 to BDT 33.9bn in 2024 as loans grew from BDT 380.8bn to BDT 513.4bn, then fell 6.4% to BDT 31.8bn in 2025 even though loans were flat [5 p.269] [1 p.18] [17]. The printed weighted average rate of advance fell from 8.96% to 7.66% [1 p.112]. Because a classified loan stops accruing interest to income, the rise in the classified book from 21% to 39-42% of loans takes interest out of this line. In H1 2026 interest income fell a further 25.0% to BDT 12.9bn [2 p.10] [17].

Interest expense. Interest paid rose every year, from BDT 25.7bn in 2021 to BDT 47.5bn in 2025 [5 p.269] [1 p.18]. The driver is deposit cost, not borrowing: the printed cost of deposit went from 4.61% in 2021 to 6.45% in 2025, and the weighted average deposit rate from 4.42% to 6.22% [5 p.366] [1 p.112]. Fixed deposits are 73.6% of the deposit base [17], so when market deposit rates rise, the bank's cost follows as deposits reprice. Interest on deposits alone was BDT 25.4bn in H1 2026 against BDT 22.3bn a year earlier [2 p.52].

Net interest income is therefore negative, and the gap has widened: BDT -3,343m in 2021, BDT -6,660m in 2024, BDT -15,754m in 2025 and BDT -13,478m in H1 2026 alone [17]. Measured on year-end earning assets, NII fell from -0.64% to -2.84% [17]. The bank's printed spread (rate on advances less rate on deposits) fell from 3.99% to 1.44% in 2025 [1 p.112].

Investment income is what keeps the bank in profit. It rose from BDT 14.1bn in 2021 to BDT 22.9bn in 2025 and to BDT 12.0bn in H1 2026 [5 p.269] [1 p.18] [2 p.10]. Government securities on the balance sheet rose from BDT 161.7bn at Dec-2024 to BDT 214.6bn at Jun-2026 [1 p.16] [2 p.8]. Investment income was 187% of total operating income in 2025, which means every other line together was negative [17]. The printed return on investment was 10.83% in 2025 against 8.90% in 2024 [1 p.112]; any fall in treasury yields reduces this line.

Fees and other income. Commission, exchange and brokerage rose to BDT 3.7bn in 2025 from BDT 2.2bn [1 p.18], but halved to BDT 1.0bn in H1 2026 from BDT 2.2bn [2 p.10]. The trade business shrank in 2025: imports fell from BDT 18,306.61 crore to BDT 10,192.90 crore and exports from BDT 3,118.85 crore to BDT 2,594.69 crore, while remittance rose [1 p.112].

Operating expenses have been stable at BDT 10.8-13.9bn a year; staff costs are the largest part at BDT 7.2bn in 2025, down from BDT 7.8bn [1 p.18]. Cost-to-income was 91.2% in 2025 [17]. In H1 2026 opex rose 6% to BDT 6.1bn while operating income turned negative (BDT -61m), so the loss before provisions was BDT -6,153m [2 p.10] [17].

Provisions and tax. Provisions charged were small compared with the classified book: BDT 2.8bn in 2024, BDT 0.6bn in 2025 and almost nothing (BDT 62,156) in H1 2026 [1 p.18] [2 p.10]. The gap between what is required and what is kept is the deferred shortfall discussed below. Tax is charged on a thin pre-tax profit: BDT 424.4m on BDT 474.2m in 2025, so 89% of pre-tax profit went to tax [1 p.18] [17]; in H1 2026 the bank booked BDT 280.1m of tax on a pre-tax loss [2 p.10].

Exhibit 5Interest paid has exceeded interest earned in every year since 2021
BDT mn
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00020212022202320242025
Interest incomeInterest paid
Data
20212022202320242025
Interest income22,368.0024,244.0029,004.0033,948.0031,764.00
Interest paid25,711.0027,309.0031,847.0040,609.0047,518.00
Source: AR2022 p.269, AR2023 p.287, AR2025 p.18; Q2 2026 p.10 [17]
Exhibit 6Net interest income against investment income
BDT mn
-20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,00020212022202320242025
Net interest incomeInvestment income
Data
20212022202320242025
Net interest income-3,343.00-3,065.00-2,842.00-6,660.00-15,754.00
Investment income14,088.0015,251.0015,293.0017,898.0022,921.00
Source: Model P&L sheet [17]
Exhibit 7H1 2026 against H1 2025: operating income turned negative
H1 2025H1 2026
Interest income17,22912,920
Interest paid23,19926,398
Net interest income-5,970-13,478
Investment income9,73711,999
Commission, exchange, brokerage2,1541,009
Total operating income6,246-61
Total operating expenses5,7296,092
Profit / (loss) before provision517-6,153
Net profit / (loss) after tax84-6,433
EPS (BDT)0.17-13.18
Source: Q2 2026 p.10 [2]; model [17] · BDT mn, standalone, unaudited
Exhibit 8Operating income mix, 2021-2025
%
050.010015020020212022202320242025
Investment income / total operating incomeCost-to-income
Data
20212022202320242025
Investment income / total operating income106.36102.2193.90122.15187.36
Cost-to-income91.0492.8566.4878.3091.19
Source: Model P&L sheet [17] · Investment income above 100% means the other lines together were negative

Asset quality: BDT 200.2bn classified, 96.6% of it bad/loss, and a Tk14,014 crore provision gap left out by BB letter

Classified loans were BDT 200.2bn at Dec-2025, 39.05% of loans, after 41.60% at Dec-2024 [1 p.70]. The mix is almost all bad/loss: BDT 193.2bn bad/loss, BDT 4.9bn doubtful and BDT 2.0bn sub-standard, so 96.6% of classified loans are in the last bucket [1 p.70] [17]. The fall in 2025 came from the earlier buckets (sub-standard fell from BDT 12.8bn and doubtful from BDT 20.2bn) while bad/loss rose by BDT 12.7bn [1 p.70]. Special mention loans, the watch list before classification, rose from BDT 7.8bn to BDT 19.4bn [1 p.70].

Provisioning has not kept up. Provision kept against classified loans was BDT 17.0bn at both Dec-2024 and Dec-2025, 8.5% of the classified book [1 p.112] [17]. The required provision for loans and off-balance-sheet items was BDT 130.3bn at Dec-2025 [1 p.70], and the highlights page shows a provision deficit against loans of BDT 11,216.62 crore (BDT 12,282.84 crore in 2024) [1 p.112]. Including pension fund, investments, other assets and balances with banks, the auditors put the unrecognised provisions at BDT 14,014.48 crore [1 p.2].

This is the second year in a row that BB has allowed the shortfall to stay out of the accounts. For FY2024, BB letter no. DOS(CAMS)1157/41 (Dividend)/2025-3114 of 22 May 2025 permitted the bank to prepare its statements in this way, and the FY2024 opinion was also qualified [3 p.78]. For FY2025 the letter is BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263 of 30 April 2026 [1 p.2]. The capital note says BSD gave 'deferral advantage/regulatory forbearance' of BDT 14,014.48 crore on the bank's application [1 p.94]; we did not find a stated term or amortisation schedule in the pages read.

Measured against equity, the shortfall is large: BDT 140.1bn against equity of BDT 16.6bn, or 8.4 times. Booked in full, with no tax effect, equity would be BDT -123.5bn and book value BDT -253 a share [17]. The shortfall is 70.0% of the classified book [17]. The highlights deficit has moved with the classified book: BDT 3,078 crore in 2021, BDT 5,439 crore in 2022, BDT 3,869 crore in 2023 and BDT 12,283 crore in 2024 [5 p.366] [3 p.297].

The auditors added an emphasis of matter on loan classification itself: the bank is still implementing BRPD Circular 15 (27 November 2024) in its core banking system, and 'is yet to provide rationale about the manual intervention in CL report and the reason for the changes of CL report data with the time elapsed' [1 p.3]. Under the Companies Act section of the report they state that 'inadequate provisions have been made for advance and other assets which are in our opinion, doubtful of recovery' [1 p.8]. We did not find a classified-loan figure for Jun-2026 in the half-year notes we read.

Exhibit 9Classified loans as a share of loans: 17.5% in 2021, 41.6% in 2024, 39.1% in 2025
%
010.020.030.040.050.02021202220232024202517.521.221.041.639.0
Data
20212022202320242025
Classified / loans17.5121.1921.0341.6039.05
Source: Highlights AR2022 p.366, AR2024 p.297, AR2025 p.112; model [17]
Exhibit 10Classification of loans, Dec-2024 and Dec-2025
Dec-2024Dec-2025
Standard (incl. staff loans)292,077292,967
Special mention account7,76819,410
Sub-standard12,8172,016
Doubtful20,2364,886
Bad/loss180,525193,248
Total classified213,578200,150
Total loans513,422512,527
Percentage classified (printed)41.6%39.1%
Source: AR2025 p.70 note 7.10 [1] · BDT mn
Exhibit 11Provision kept covers 8.5% of classified loans
%
0510.015.020.02021202220232024202518.413.313.07.968.49
Data
20212022202320242025
Provision kept / classified loans18.3913.2913.007.968.49
Source: Highlights pages; model [17]
Exhibit 12What the deferred shortfall does to book value, Dec-2025
Dec-2025
Provision not recognised (BB letter 30-Apr-2026)140,145
Shareholders' equity as reported16,634
Equity if the shortfall were booked-123,511
Book value per share, reported (BDT)34.09
Book value per share if booked (BDT)-253.13
Shortfall / equity (x)8.4
Source: AR2025 p.2, p.16; model Shortfall sheet [17] · BDT mn; no tax effect assumed

Capital and audit: CRAR 2.88% (1.70% at Jun-2026) against 12.5%, and a qualified opinion with seven emphasis-of-matter items

Total regulatory capital was BDT 17.2bn at Dec-2025 against risk-weighted assets of BDT 596.3bn, a CRAR of 2.88% [1 p.94] [17]. The bank reports its required capital at 10% of RWA (BDT 59.6bn) and a shortage of BDT 4,247.02 crore [1 p.112]; the auditors measure it against the 12.5% that includes the capital conservation buffer [1 p.3]. On that basis the shortfall was about BDT 57.4bn [17]. If the deferred provisions were deducted, the shortfall would be about BDT 198bn [17].

The capital note shows how the figure is reached: the provision shortfall is not deducted from Common Equity Tier-1 because of the forbearance [1 p.94]. At Jun-2026 solo CRAR was 1.70%, with Tier-1 at 1.36%, after the half-year loss [2 p.46]. CRAR was 5.56% in 2021, 4.92% in 2022 and 5.28% in 2023 [5 p.366] [3 p.297]: the bank has been below the minimum for at least five years. Our recomputed ratios match the printed ones to two decimals [17]. The half-year note shows Dec-2025 solo CRAR as 2.93% against 2.88% in the audited accounts, and its requirement column is 10% (12.5% including the conservation buffer) [2 p.46].

Audit opinion. The FY2025 opinion of joint auditors Mahfel Huq & Co. and G. Kibria & Co., signed on 30 April 2026, is qualified: 'except for the possible effect of the matters described in Basis for Qualified Opinion', the statements give a true and fair view [1 p.2] [1 p.18]. The basis is the BDT 14,014.48 crore of unrecognised provisions, which the auditors say 'is not consistent with the relevant IFRS Accounting Standards' [1 p.2].

Emphasis of matter. The auditors list seven items without modifying the opinion further [1 p.3]: the basis of preparation under BB rules on loan classification and provisioning (note 2.1); share money deposit of BDT 679.99 crore that was required to be converted into share capital within six months under FRC Circular 146/FRC/SS/2020/251; paid-up capital of BDT 487.93 crore against the BDT 500 crore minimum under BRPD Circular 18 of 15 June 2023; CRAR of 2.88% solo and 2.94% consolidated against 12.5%; rent of BDT 510.3m booked as an expense for rental agreements that the auditors say meet the IFRS 16 lease criteria (alongside lease liabilities of BDT 172.8m already recognised); foreign-currency balances not retranslated at the reporting-date rate and a suspense balance to reconcile (IAS 21); and the loan classification reporting issue noted above.

Exhibit 13CRAR has been below the minimum since at least 2021
%
02.557.510.012.520212022202320242025Jun-26
CRARMinimum incl. buffer
Data
20212022202320242025Jun-26
CRAR5.564.925.282.952.881.70
Minimum incl. buffer12.5012.5012.5012.5012.5012.50
Source: Highlights AR2022 p.366, AR2024 p.297, AR2025 p.112; Q2 2026 p.46 · Solo; Jun-2026 from the half-year capital note
Exhibit 14Capital against requirement, 2021-2025
20212022202320242025
Total capital23,66622,23124,58816,63717,160
Required capital at 10%42,52845,19046,52756,34659,630
Shortfall to 12.5% (model)29,49534,25733,57053,79657,378
CRAR printed (%)5.6%4.9%5.3%2.9%2.9%
Source: Highlights pages; model [17] · BDT mn
Exhibit 15Audit report FY2025: qualification and emphasis of matter
ItemTypeWhat the auditors say
OpinionBasis for qualified opinionQualified: provisions of BDT 14,014.48 crore not recognised
Regulatory basisBasis for qualified opinionBB letter BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263, 30-Apr-2026
Basis of preparation (note 2.1)Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified)BB rules on loan classification and provisioning
Share money depositEmphasis of matter (opinion not modified)BDT 679.99 crore not converted within 6 months (FRC circular)
Paid-up capitalEmphasis of matter (opinion not modified)BDT 487.93 crore vs BDT 500 crore minimum (BRPD 18/2023)
CRAREmphasis of matter (opinion not modified)2.88% solo, 2.94% consolidated vs 12.5%
IFRS 16Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified)Rent of BDT 510.3m expensed for agreements meeting IFRS 16 lease criteria; lease liabilities BDT 172.8m recognised
IAS 21Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified)FX balances not retranslated at reporting-date rate; suspense balance to reconcile
Loan classificationEmphasis of matter (opinion not modified)BRPD 15/2024 not yet in CBS; manual intervention in CL report unexplained
Legal report (vi)Report on other legal requirementsInadequate provisions for advances and other assets doubtful of recovery
Source: AR2025 p.2-3, p.8 [1]

Deposits: BDT 740bn and still growing, half of it public money, 74% in fixed deposits

Deposits are the bank's strength. Total deposits grew every year, from BDT 576.4bn in 2021 to BDT 720.6bn in 2025, and to BDT 740.3bn at Jun-2026 [5 p.366] [1 p.16] [2 p.8]. Growth was 5.1% in 2025 and 2.7% in the first half of 2026 [17]. This is the opposite of National Bank, whose deposits fell from BDT 370.2bn to BDT 338.8bn in 2025 [8 p.67]; savings deposits alone rose from BDT 138.7bn to BDT 151.4bn in six months [2 p.8].

About half of the deposits are public money. Note 12.06 splits deposits by sector: at Dec-2025, BDT 16.8bn came from the presidency, prime minister's office and judiciary, BDT 53.3bn from autonomous and semi-autonomous bodies, BDT 274.4bn from the 'other public sector' and BDT 16.4bn from public banks and financial institutions, against BDT 359.7bn from the private sector [1 p.83]. The public share fell from 54.4% to 50.1% in 2025: public-sector deposits fell 3.3% while private deposits rose 15.0% [17]. Within fixed deposits, non-financial public enterprises placed BDT 123.0bn, down from BDT 141.6bn, and individuals BDT 104.3bn, up from BDT 98.0bn [1 p.83].

Government deposits are a source of stability and of concentration. A state bank's public deposits tend to stay because the depositors are owned by the same shareholder, but they are placed by policy, and a change in where state enterprises keep their money would move this line. The mix is weighted to term money: current and savings accounts were 26.1% of deposits at Dec-2025 and fixed deposits 73.6% [17]. Loans were 71.1% of deposits, so the bank is liquid; the surplus sits in government securities (23.6% of assets) [17].

Exhibit 16Deposits grew every year, 2021 to Jun-2026
BDT mn
0200,000400,000600,000800,00020212022202320242025Jun-26
DepositsLoans
Data
20212022202320242025Jun-26
Deposits576,431.00588,676.00667,318.00685,898.00720,622.00740,289.00
Loans380,834.00435,401.00477,601.00513,422.00512,527.00521,393.00
Source: Highlights pages; AR2025 p.16; Q2 2026 p.8 · BDT mn
Exhibit 17Deposits by sector: public money was half of the total at Dec-2025
Dec-2024Dec-2025
Presidency, PM office and judiciary20,33216,814
Autonomous and semi-autonomous bodies52,73353,344
Other public sector285,116274,375
Bank and financial institutions (public)14,88216,384
Public sector total373,063360,918
Private sector312,836359,704
Public share (%)54.4%50.1%
Source: AR2025 p.83 note 12.06 [1]; model [17] · BDT mn, including bills payable
Exhibit 18Funding mix, Dec-2024 to Jun-2026
Dec-2024Dec-2025Jun-2026
Current and other accounts48,77949,22854,599
Bills payable3,1882,4052,863
Savings deposits126,190138,700151,435
Fixed deposits507,741530,289531,392
Total deposits685,898720,622740,289
Borrowing from banks, FIs and agents13,8845,95013,955
Government investments161,658199,426214,593
CASA share (%)25.5%26.1%27.8%
Loans / deposits (%)74.9%71.1%70.4%
Source: AR2025 p.16; Q2 2026 p.8; model [17] · BDT mn

Cost of funds and NIM: cost of deposit 6.45%, advance rate 7.66%, and NII at -2.84% of earning assets

The bank's own measures show the squeeze. The printed 'cost of fund %' rose from 6.79% in 2021 to 8.32% in 2025, and the 'cost of deposit %' from 4.61% to 6.45% [5 p.366] [1 p.112]. Over the same period the weighted average rate on advances moved from 7.04% to 7.66%, after 8.96% in 2024 [5 p.366] [1 p.112]. The gap between the advance rate and the cost of deposit shrank from 3.29pp in 2024 to 1.21pp in 2025 [17]. These are rates on the whole book; because the classified book earns nothing to income, the realised margin is far worse.

The bank does not print a net interest margin. On our measure, net interest income over year-end earning assets (the earning assets line on the highlights page) was -0.64% in 2021, -1.30% in 2024 and -2.84% in 2025 [17]. Sensitivity from history: in 2025 the cost of deposit rose 0.78pp and interest paid rose BDT 6,909m on deposits that averaged about BDT 703bn [1 p.18] [1 p.112] [17]. Two printed series look copied in AR2024: the 2023 advance rate and spread are identical to 2024 (8.96% and 3.99%) [3 p.297], so we do not read a trend from 2023. AR2025 also restates the 2024 cost of fund from 8.05% to 8.10% [3 p.297] [1 p.112].

Exhibit 19Cost of deposit rose 1.8pp in four years while the advance rate barely moved
%
0246810.020212022202320242025
Cost of fundCost of depositRate of advance
Data
20212022202320242025
Cost of fund6.797.597.158.108.32
Cost of deposit4.614.684.845.676.45
Rate of advance7.046.918.968.967.66
Source: Highlights AR2022 p.366, AR2024 p.297, AR2025 p.112 · As printed; 2023 advance rate printed equal to 2024
Exhibit 20Net interest income over earning assets, 2021-2025
%
-3-2-1020212022202320242025-0.64-0.59-0.47-1.3-2.84
Data
20212022202320242025
NII / earning assets-0.64-0.59-0.47-1.30-2.84
Source: Model P&L sheet [17] · NII / year-end earning assets from the highlights page

Ratios and peers: NPL and CRAR better than IFIC and NBL, far from NCC; 'cost of fund' similar across the group

Returns have been close to zero for five years: ROA was 0.03% to 0.006% and ROE 3.3% in 2023, 0.5% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025 [17]. Profit after tax was BDT 358m in 2021 and BDT 50m in 2025 [5 p.269] [1 p.18]. Loan growth stopped in 2025 (-0.2%) after 14.3% in 2022 [17], and the loan-to-deposit ratio fell to 71.1% [17]. Equity to assets has been about 2% throughout, against 7.6% at NCC Bank [9 p.183] [17].

We compare Rupali with two private banks under similar stress, IFIC Bank and National Bank, and with NCC Bank as a sound conventional bank, using each bank's own 2025 highlights page and quoting each label. On classified loans Rupali (39.05%) is better than IFIC (61.47%) and NBL (59.69%) but 34.9pp above NCC Bank (4.12%) [1 p.112] [7 p.242] [8 p.67] [9 p.183]. On capital Rupali's 2.88% CRAR is above IFIC's 1.82% and NBL's -5.48% (as printed in IFIC's capital note [7 p.213] and NBL's audit report [8 p.12]) and far below NCC's 15.54% [9 p.183].

On funding cost, the comparable label is 'cost of fund': Rupali printed 8.32%, IFIC 8.38% and NCC 8.81%, so Rupali is 0.06pp below IFIC and 0.49pp below NCC [1 p.112] [7 p.242] [9 p.184] [17]. NBL's figure is labelled 'Cost of Fund (including operating cost)' (10.32%) and is not like-for-like [8 p.67]. None of the banks defines the measure on the page, so we treat these as the banks' own figures, not a ranking. Rupali prints the lowest 'cost of fund' of the three, yet its NII is negative because so much of the book does not earn; at NCC 96% of loans are not classified.

Exhibit 21Peer table, Dec-2025: each bank's own highlights page, labels quoted
RUPALIBANKIFICNBLNCCBANK
Classified loans / loans (%)39.1%61.5%59.7%4.1%
CRAR (%)2.9%1.8%-5.5%15.5%
'Cost of fund' (%)8.3%8.4%10.3%8.8%
Deposits (BDT mn)720,622517,162338,844297,389
Profit after tax (BDT mn)49.8-25,616.9-24,298.74,861.0
Source: AR2025 p.112 [1]; IFIC p.242, p.213 [7]; NBL p.67, p.12 [8]; NCC p.183-184 [9]; model [17] · CRAR as printed: IFIC solo 1.82% (IFIC p.213); NBL (5.48)% (NBL auditor's report p.12); NBL cost of fund includes operating cost
Exhibit 22Five-year ratio summary
20212022202320242025
Gross NPL (%)17.5%21.2%21.0%41.6%39.1%
Provision kept / classified (%)18.4%13.3%13.0%8.0%8.5%
CRAR (%)5.6%4.9%5.3%3.0%2.9%
Loans / deposits (%)66.1%74.0%71.6%74.9%71.1%
Deposit growth (%)—2.1%13.4%2.8%5.1%
Loan growth (%)—14.3%9.7%7.5%-0.2%
ROA (%)—0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
ROE (%)——3.3%0.5%0.3%
NII / earning assets (%)-0.6%-0.6%-0.5%-1.3%-2.8%
Cost-to-income (%)91.0%92.8%66.5%78.3%91.2%
Interest paid / interest income (x)1.151.131.101.201.50
Source: Model History and P&L sheets [17]
Exhibit 23Multiples as facts
Value
Market cap (BDT mn)7,612
Price / book, Dec-2025 (x)0.46
Price / book, Jun-2026 (x)0.73
Book value per share if shortfall booked (BDT)-253
Source: Price [11]; equity AR2025 p.16, Q2 2026 p.8; model [17]

Ownership and dividend: Government 90.19%, a 9.81% float, and paid-up capital 75.6% short of BB's Tk2,000 crore dividend line

Ownership and free float. The Government held 440,052,335 shares (90.19%) and general public and institutions 47,879,730 shares (9.81%) at Dec-2024 [3 p.184]. TBS reported the same 90.19% in May 2026 and split the rest into 3.32% institutions and 6.49% general public [12]. With BDT 679.99 crore of Government money held as share money deposit [1 p.3], the state's stake would rise further once shares are allotted. The bank's 2024 Directors' Report put a resolution to its 10th EGM on 27 August 2025 to issue 453,330,253 shares at Tk15.00 each (Tk10 face value plus Tk5 premium) to the Secretary, Finance Division, against the Government's Tk679.99 crore of share money, subject to BSEC approval [3 p.78]; the Financial Express reported the plan on 1-Jul-2025 and said it would lift paid-up capital to Tk941 crore [14]. At Jun-2026 paid-up capital was still BDT 4,879.3m and the share money deposit still BDT 6,800.0m [2 p.8], so the conversion had not been completed by then.

For a minority investor this means that the float is about BDT 747m at the last close [17], that the controlling shareholder is also the main depositor and a borrower through state enterprises, and that decisions on capital, provisioning and dividends rest with the Government and BB. The FY2025 statements were signed by chairman Md. Nazrul Huda and managing director Kazi Md. Wahidul Islam [1 p.18]. The board met 24 times in 2024 [3 p.78].

Dividend. The bank declared no dividend for 2024 'due to regulator's directives' [3 p.91]. TBS reported on 19-May-2026 that DSE moved the share to the 'Z' category after no dividend was declared for two consecutive years [12]. BB's SPCD Circular 06 of 23 May 2026, effective from the year ending 31 December 2026, bars any cash dividend while paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore, and caps cash at 50% of the total dividend for banks that meet all conditions [6 p.1]. Rupali's paid-up capital of Tk487.93 crore is 75.6% short of that line (1 - 487.93/2,000) [17]. Even after the conversion reported by the Financial Express it would be 52.9% short [14] [17]. The circular also requires minimum capital including the conservation buffer, which a 2.88% CRAR does not meet [6 p.1].

News flow (24 months). Board meetings for quarterly results were held on 29-May-2025, 20-Jul-2025, 30-Oct-2025, 17-May-2026, 22-Jul-2026 and 28-Oct-2026, the annual-results board on 30-Apr-2026 and the AGM on 19-Jul-2026; DSE also listed spot-market periods in July 2025 and May 2026 [10]. TBS reported on 19-May-2026 a consolidated Q1 2026 loss of Tk396 crore [12]. TBS reported on 17-Dec-2025, citing BB data, that defaults reached Tk23,712 crore (51%) by September 2025 and that the top 20 defaulters owed Tk12,263 crore [13]; these single-outlet figures are higher than the 39.05% the audited year-end statements show [1 p.70].

Exhibit 24Shareholding, Dec-2024
Shares%
Government440,052,33590
General public and institutions47,879,73010
Total487,932,065100
Source: AR2024 p.184 [3]
Exhibit 25Dividend rule check (SPCD Circular 06)
TestRupaliResult
Paid-up >= Tk2,000 croreTk487.93 croreNot met: 75.6% short
Paid-up >= Tk500 crore (BRPD 18/2023)Tk487.93 croreNot met: Tk12.07 crore short
Minimum capital incl. buffer (12.5%)CRAR 2.88% (Dec-25), 1.70% (Jun-26)Not met
Retained earnings, Jun-2026BDT -6,384mNegative
Source: SPCD C06 p.1 [6]; Q2 2026 p.8; model [17]
Exhibit 26Corporate events, 2025-2026
DateEvent
29-May-2025Q1 2025 and annual board meetings
13/17-Jul-2025Spot-market notices
20-Jul-2025Q2 2025 board meeting
30-Oct-2025Q3 2025 board meeting
30-Apr-2026FY2025 accounts board meeting; audit report signed
17-May-2026Q1 2026 board meeting
19-Jul-2026AGM
22-Jul-2026Q2 2026 board meeting
28-Oct-2026Q3 2026 board meeting; results published 29-Oct-2026
Source: AnalystBro events (DSE announcements) [10]

What's next: Q3 2026 results, the first year-end under SPCD Circular 06, the FY2026 forbearance decision and LDC graduation in 2029

Nothing below is a forecast; each item is dated and sourced, with the line it moves.

Exhibit 27What's next: dated signposts
DateEventLine it movesSource
Done 29-Oct-2026Q3 2026 results published after the 28-Oct board meeting; not yet in corpusNII, equity, CRAR[s10]
31-Dec-2026First year-end under SPCD Circular 06 dividend rulesDividend[s6 p.1]
30-Apr-2027FY2026 accounts due on the same cycle as FY2025 (signed 30-Apr-2026) and FY2024 (BB letter 22-May-2025); a new BB letter would be needed to keep the shortfall outProvisions, equity, audit opinion[s1 p.18] [s3 p.78]
24-Nov-2029Bangladesh's LDC graduation, moved from 24-Nov-2026 by a UN General Assembly resolution adopted on 29-Oct-2026 in New York (30-Oct in Dhaka)Trade fees (export/import)[s15] [s16]
Source: As cited

Q3 2026 results (29-Oct-2026). The DSE feed shows the Q3 board meeting on 28-Oct-2026 and results published on 29-Oct-2026 [10]; the statements are not yet in our corpus, so we do not quote them. They will show whether the H1 loss of BDT 6.4bn continued and where CRAR stood at 30 September.

FY2026 accounts (about 30-Apr-2027). The FY2025 accounts were signed on 30-Apr-2026 [1 p.18] and the FY2024 accounts relied on a BB letter of 22-May-2025 [3 p.78]. The forbearance letters so far cover one year each; whether BB issues another for FY2026, and for how much, decides whether the shortfall reaches equity.

Dividend year-end (31-Dec-2026). SPCD Circular 06 applies from the year ending 31 December 2026 [6 p.1]. With paid-up capital at Tk487.93 crore, no cash dividend is possible under it [17].

LDC graduation (24-Nov-2029). The UN General Assembly adopted the move of Bangladesh's graduation from 24 November 2026 to 24 November 2029 on 29 October 2026 in New York (30 October in Dhaka) [15] [16]. For Rupali the link is through trade fees: exports of BDT 2,594.69 crore and imports of BDT 10,192.90 crore in 2025 [1 p.112]. The later date delays any loss of LDC trade preferences for the bank's export customers.

Risks: forbearance, a negative spread, treasury dependence, dilution and the quality of the loan data

Each risk is tied to the line it moves; we put no probability on any of them.

Exhibit 28Risk table
RiskLine it movesEvidence
Forbearance not renewed or reversedProvisions, equity (BDT 140.1bn gap vs BDT 16.6bn equity)[s1 p.2]
Negative NII widensNet interest income (BDT -13.5bn in H1 2026)[s2 p.10]
Treasury yields fallInvestment income (BDT 22.9bn in 2025)[s1 p.18]
Public deposits moveDeposits (public share 50.1%)[s1 p.83]
Capital action on unequal termsShare count, minority dilution (Government share money BDT 679.99 crore)[s1 p.3] [s3 p.78] [s14]
Classification data qualityClassified loans (manual intervention in CL report)[s1 p.3]
Concentrated large borrowersClassified loans (TBS: Tk14,156 crore from 32 clients)[s13]
Liquidity of the shareTrading (9.81% float; Z category per TBS)[s3 p.184] [s12]
Source: As cited

Forbearance. The largest single number is the BDT 140.1bn of provisions not recognised [1 p.2]. It sits outside the profit and loss account only because of a BB letter. If it were booked, equity would be deeply negative [17].

Negative spread. The H1 2026 result shows what happens when deposit cost rises and interest income falls together: NII of BDT -13,478m and a pre-provision loss [2 p.10] [17]. Every BDT 1bn of extra interest paid moves pre-tax profit by the same amount; there is no cushion.

Treasury dependence. Investment income was larger than total operating income in every year except 2023 [17]. A fall in government securities yields would cut the only line that is growing.

Capital action and dilution. The Government's share money conversion, and any further capital the state provides, would be at prices set by the Government and BSEC. The EGM resolution priced the shares at Tk15.00 including a Tk5 premium [3 p.78]; the market price on 29-Oct-2026 was BDT 15.6 [11].

Data quality. The auditors could not get a rationale for manual changes in the classified-loan report [1 p.3], and the TBS-reported default figures for 2025 (51% in September) differ from the audited year-end 39.05% [13] [1 p.70]. Reported NPL is best read with that in mind.

Key questions: the forbearance, the spread, the share money, recoveries and public deposits

Key questions and the signposts that answer them

  • Will BB renew the forbearance for FY2026, and for how much? Signpost: the FY2026 audit report, expected around 30-Apr-2027 [1 p.2].
  • Can net interest income stop falling? Signpost: interest income against interest paid in the Q3 2026 and FY2026 statements [2 p.10].
  • When is the Government's share money converted, and at what price? Signpost: BSEC approval of the EGM resolution; paid-up capital in the next statements [3 p.78] [14] [2 p.8].
  • Is the classified book being recovered or written off? Signpost: note 7.10 classification table and the special-mention line (BDT 19.4bn at Dec-2025) [1 p.70].
  • Do public deposits keep falling as a share? Signpost: note 12.06 sector split in the FY2026 accounts [1 p.83].
Exhibit 29Data used in this note
ItemPeriodSource
Highlights (capital, NPL, deposits, loans, rates)2021-2025AR2022 p.366, AR2024 p.297, AR2025 p.112
Profit and loss2021-2025AR2022 p.269, AR2023 p.287, AR2025 p.18
Balance sheet and deposit mixDec-22 to Jun-26AR2023 p.285, AR2025 p.16, p.83; Q2 2026 p.8
Loan classification and provisionsDec-24, Dec-25AR2025 p.70
CapitalDec-25, Jun-26AR2025 p.94; Q2 2026 p.46
Half-year P&LH1 2025, H1 2026Q2 2026 p.10, p.52
Audit reportFY2025, FY2024AR2025 p.2-8; AR2024 p.78
Source: Filings and market data as cited

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

History

BDT mnFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Paid-up capital4,5564,6474,6474,8794,879
Total capital (Tier-I + Tier-II)23,66622,23124,58816,63717,160
Required capital (Basel III, 10% of RWA)42,52845,19046,52756,34659,630
CRAR as reported5.6%4.9%5.3%2.9%2.9%
Total assets665,248686,727793,508806,600846,286
Total deposits576,431588,676667,318685,898720,622
Total loans and advances380,834435,401477,601513,422512,527
Total classified loans66,66592,248100,438213,578200,150
Provision kept against classified loans12,25812,25713,05616,99916,999
Provision surplus / (deficit) against loans and advances-30,784-54,388-38,690-122,828-112,166
Profit after tax and provision358.0209.3543.582.949.8
Total shareholders' equity (solo balance sheet)—16,34716,63216,51716,634
Cost of fund % (as printed)6.8%7.6%7.1%8.1%8.3%
Cost of deposit % (as printed)4.6%4.7%4.8%5.7%6.5%
Earning assets523,330515,423607,649511,254554,763
Spread % (as printed)2.6%2.2%4.0%4.0%1.4%
Weighted average rate of advance (as printed)7.0%6.9%9.0%9.0%7.7%
Ratios
Gross NPL ratio (classified / loans)17.5%21.2%21.0%41.6%39.1%
Provision kept / classified loans18.4%13.3%13.0%8.0%8.5%
CRAR recomputed (total capital / (required capital / 10%))5.6%4.9%5.3%3.0%2.9%
Capital shortfall to 12.5% (incl. conservation buffer)29,49534,25733,57053,79657,378
Loans / deposits66.1%74.0%71.6%74.9%71.1%
Deposit growth—2.1%13.4%2.8%5.1%
Loan growth—14.3%9.7%7.5%-0.2%
Classified loan growth—38.4%8.9%112.6%-6.3%
ROA (avg assets)—0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
ROE (avg equity)——3.3%0.5%0.3%
Equity / total assets—2.4%2.1%2.0%2.0%
Advance rate minus cost of deposit (pp)2.432.234.123.291.21
Provision deficit / equity—3.32.37.46.7

P&L

BDT mnFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Interest income22,36824,24429,00433,94831,764
Interest paid on deposits, borrowings etc.25,71127,30931,84740,60947,518
Investment income14,08815,25115,29317,89822,921
Commission, exchange, brokerage etc.1,9291,9432,3672,2173,684
Other operating income5717921,4691,1981,383
Total operating expenses12,05813,85410,82811,47411,156
of which salary and allowances5,9626,5716,5727,8447,190
Total provisions4694414,1402,839603
Provision for taxation360417776257424
Net profit after tax358.0209.3543.582.949.8
Net interest income-3,343-3,065-2,842-6,660-15,754
Non-interest income (investment + fees + other)16,58817,98619,13021,31327,988
Total operating income13,24514,92116,28714,65212,234
Profit before provision1,1871,0675,4593,1791,078
Profit before tax7186261,319340474
Check: PBT - tax - PAT (should be ~0)0.0-0.1-0.10.10.0
Net interest income / earning assets (year-end, History sheet)-0.6%-0.6%-0.5%-1.3%-2.8%
Interest paid / interest income1.151.131.101.201.50
Investment income / total operating income106%102%94%122%187%
Cost-to-income (opex / total operating income)91.0%92.8%66.5%78.3%91.2%
Tax / profit before tax50%67%59%76%89%
Interest income growth—8.4%19.6%17.0%-6.4%
Interest paid growth—6.2%16.6%27.5%17.0%
Investment income growth—8.3%0.3%17.0%28.1%

Half-years

BDT mnH1 2025H1 2026
Interest income17,22912,920
Interest paid on deposits, borrowings etc.23,19926,398
of which interest on deposits22,26625,421
Investment income9,73711,999
Commission, exchange, brokerage etc.2,1541,009
Other operating income325408
Total operating expenses5,7296,092
Total provisions245.00.1
Provision for taxation189280
Net profit / (loss) after tax84-6,433
Net interest income-5,970-13,478
Total operating income6,246-61
Profit / (loss) before provision517-6,153
Check: PPOP - provisions - tax - PAT-0.1-0.1
Interest paid / interest income1.352.04
Interest income change vs H1 2025—-25.0%
Interest paid change vs H1 2025—13.8%
Loss per share (487.93m shares)0.17-13.19

Funding

BDT mnDec-2024Dec-2025Jun-2026
Current and other accounts48,77949,22854,599
Bills payable3,1882,4052,863
Savings deposits126,190138,700151,435
Fixed deposits507,741530,289531,392
Total deposits685,898720,622740,289
Borrowing from other banks, FIs and agents13,8845,95013,955
Loans and advances513,422512,527521,393
Government investments161,658199,426214,593
Cash (in hand + BB and Sonali Bank)36,12342,92438,778
Other liabilities90,301103,080113,148
Total assets806,600846,286877,854
Total shareholders' equity16,51716,63410,462
Check: sum of deposit lines - total0.00.10.0
CASA share (current + savings)25.5%26.1%27.8%
Fixed deposit share74.0%73.6%71.8%
Loans / deposits74.9%71.1%70.4%
Government investments / total assets20.0%23.6%24.4%
Equity / total assets2.0%2.0%1.2%
Deposit change vs prior column—5.1%2.7%
Book value per share (487.93m shares)33.8534.0921.44

Deposit sectors

BDT mnDec-2024Dec-2025
Presidency, prime minister office and judiciary20,33216,814
Autonomous and semi-autonomous bodies52,73353,344
Other public sector285,116274,375
Bank and financial institutions (public)14,88216,384
Private sector312,836359,704
Fixed deposits from non-financial public enterprises141,568123,042
Total deposits incl. bills payable685,898720,622
Public-sector deposits (first four lines)373,063360,918
Public-sector share of deposits54.4%50.1%
Public-sector deposit change—-3.3%
Private-sector deposit change—15.0%

Shortfall

BDT mnDec-2025
Provision not recognised (BB letter BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263, 30-Apr-2026)140,145
Shareholders' equity, Dec-202516,634
Shares outstanding (mn)487.93
Total regulatory capital, Dec-2025 (solo)17,160
Total risk-weighted assets, Dec-2025 (solo)596,302
Classified loans, Dec-2025200,150
of which bad/loss193,248
Required provision for loans and off-balance sheet items130,291
Share money deposit (government funds awaiting share allotment)6,800
Shareholders' equity, Jun-202610,462
Equity if the shortfall were booked (no tax effect)-123,511
Book value per share34.09
Book value per share if shortfall booked-253.13
Shortfall / equity8.4
Shortfall / classified loans70.0%
Bad/loss share of classified loans96.6%
CRAR (total capital / RWA)2.9%
Capital required at 12.5% of RWA74,538
Capital shortfall to 12.5%57,378
Capital shortfall to 12.5% if provision shortfall booked197,523
Book value per share, Jun-202621.44

Dividend rule

BDT mnValue
Paid-up capital, Jun-2026 (BDT mn)4,879
SPCD C06 para 3(ka): no cash dividend if paid-up below20,000
BRPD Circular 18 (2023) minimum paid-up5,000
Paid-up if government share money converted (FE plan)9,410
Shortfall to Tk2,000 crore line (1 - paid-up / 2,000 crore)75.6%
Paid-up below the Tk2,000 crore line (BDT mn)15,121
Paid-up below the Tk500 crore minimum (BDT mn)120.7
Shortfall to Tk2,000 crore after the FE-reported conversion52.9%

Peers

BDT mnDec-2025
RUPALIBANK 'Percentage of classified loans against total loans and advances'39.1%
IFIC 'Percentage of classified loan against total loans & advances'61.5%
NBL 'Percentage of Classified Loans against total Loans and Advances'59.7%
NCCBANK 'Non performing loans as % of total loans'4.1%
RUPALIBANK CRAR (printed)2.9%
IFIC 'Total capital' (BDT mn)10,643
IFIC 'Capital surplus/(deficit)' vs 10% (BDT mn)-47,988
NBL 'Total Capital (Tier-I+II)' (BDT mn)-34,240
NBL 'Capital Surplus/ (Deficit)' vs 12.5% (BDT mn)-112,345
NCCBANK 'Capital to Risk Weighted Assets (CRAR)'15.5%
RUPALIBANK 'Cost of fund %'8.3%
IFIC 'Cost of fund'8.4%
NCCBANK 'Cost of fund (COF) (%)'8.8%
NBL 'Cost of Fund (including operating cost)'10.3%
RUPALIBANK total deposits (BDT mn)720,622
IFIC total deposits (BDT mn)517,162
NBL total deposits (BDT mn)338,844
NCCBANK deposits (BDT mn)297,389
RUPALIBANK profit after tax (BDT mn)49.8
IFIC 'Profit after tax & provision' (BDT mn)-25,617
NBL 'Profit after Provision & Tax' (BDT mn)-24,299
NCCBANK 'Profit after tax' (BDT mn)4,861
IFIC CRAR derived (total capital / ((capital - deficit)/10%))1.8%
NBL CRAR derived (total capital / ((capital - deficit)/12.5%))-5.5%
RUPALIBANK cost of fund minus IFIC (pp)-0.06
RUPALIBANK cost of fund minus NCCBANK (pp)-0.49
RUPALIBANK NPL minus NCCBANK (pp)34.93

Market

BDT mnValue
Close, 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)15.60
Shares (mn)487.93
Equity Dec-202516,634
Equity Jun-202610,462
Government holding90.2%
Market cap (BDT mn)7,612
Free-float market cap (BDT mn)747
Price / book Dec-20250.46
Price / book Jun-20260.73

FAQ

What is Rupali Bank's NPL ratio?
39.05% of loans were classified at 31-Dec-2025 (BDT 200.2bn), down from 41.60% at Dec-2024; 96.6% of classified loans are bad/loss [1 p.70].
Does Rupali Bank have a provision shortfall?
Yes. The auditors say BDT 14,014.48 crore of required provisions were not recognised at Dec-2025, as authorised by BB letter BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263 of 30-Apr-2026 [1 p.2].
What is Rupali Bank's CRAR?
2.88% solo at Dec-2025 and 1.70% at Jun-2026, against 12.5% including the conservation buffer [1 p.3] [2 p.46].
Was the FY2025 audit opinion qualified?
Yes, on the unrecognised provisions, with seven emphasis-of-matter items including CRAR, paid-up capital below Tk500 crore and unconverted share money [1 p.2] [1 p.3].
Who owns Rupali Bank?
The Government holds 90.19%; general public and institutions hold 9.81% [3 p.184].
Can Rupali Bank pay a dividend?
Not a cash dividend under SPCD Circular 06 while paid-up capital (Tk487.93 crore) is below Tk2,000 crore; it is 75.6% short [6 p.1] [17].
Which results does this note use?
Standalone audited statements 2021-2025 and the unaudited H1 2026 statements. The Q3 2026 statements (published 29-Oct-2026) are not yet in our corpus.

Sources

  1. Rupali Bank PLC audited financial statements 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025), joint auditors Mahfel Huq & Co. and G. Kibria & Co. · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. Rupali Bank PLC unaudited financial statements, six months to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. Rupali Bank PLC Annual Report 2024 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  4. Rupali Bank PLC Annual Report 2023 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. Rupali Bank Limited Annual Report 2022 (with 2021 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. IFIC Bank PLC Annual Report 2025 (peer: solo financial highlights) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. National Bank PLC audited financial statements 2025 (peer: highlights) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  9. NCC Bank PLC Annual Report 2025 (peer: five-year standalone information) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  10. DSE announcements via AnalystBro events: board meetings (LR16/LR19), AGM 19-Jul-2026, Q2 and Q3 2026 results, spot-market notices · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  11. AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:RUPALIBANK daily bars to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  12. The Business Standard, 'Mounting defaults push Rupali Bank PLC into Tk396cr quarterly loss' (19-May-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  13. The Business Standard, 'Rupali Bank's risky lending to 32 large clients ends up in Tk14,156cr defaults' (17-Dec-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  14. The Financial Express, 'Rupali Bank to boost paid-up capital with govt fund adjusted new shares' (1-Jul-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  15. The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  16. The Business Standard, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years before LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  17. AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31

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