Rupali Bank (RUPALIBANK) financial analysis: 39% NPL, Tk14,014 crore deferred provisions, CRAR 2.88% (Oct 2026)
Rupali Bank: 39.05% of loans classified, a Tk14,014 crore provision gap deferred by Bangladesh Bank and CRAR of 2.88%
The government owns 90.19% of Rupali Bank. The bank pays more interest than it earns, books a thin profit only because the regulator lets it leave Tk14,014.48 crore of provisions out of the accounts, and lost BDT 6.4bn in the first half of 2026. This note sets out the filings.
For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.
- 39.05% of loans are classified (Tk20,015 crore of Tk51,253 crore) at Dec-2025, and 96.6% of the classified book is bad/loss [1 p.112] [1 p.70] [17] →
- Tk14,014.48 crore of provisions are not in the accounts: Bangladesh Bank allowed the bank, by letter of 30-Apr-2026, to prepare its statements without them. Booked, book value would be BDT -253 a share [1 p.2] [17] →
- CRAR 2.88% against 12.5%, and 1.70% at Jun-2026; the capital shortfall to 12.5% was about BDT 57.4bn at Dec-2025 before any provision catch-up [1 p.3] [2 p.46] [17] →
- Net interest income has been negative every year since 2021, reaching BDT -15.8bn in 2025 and BDT -13.5bn in H1 2026; investment income on government securities carries the bank [1 p.18] [2 p.10] →
- Half the deposits are public money: public-sector deposits were 50.1% of the total at Dec-2025, down from 54.4%, while private deposits grew 15.0% [1 p.83] [17] →
Investment considerations: a state-owned deposit franchise with 2.88% capital, negative interest margin and a Tk14,014 crore deferred provision gap
Rupali Bank PLC is one of Bangladesh's state-owned commercial banks and is listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. The Government of Bangladesh holds 90.19% of its 487.93 million shares; general public and institutions hold the other 9.81%, and none of the directors holds shares [3 p.184]. At 30 June 2026 the bank reported loans of BDT 521.4bn, deposits of BDT 740.3bn, government securities of BDT 214.6bn and shareholders' equity of BDT 10.5bn on a standalone balance sheet of BDT 877.9bn [2 p.8].
The filings describe a bank that is large in deposits and small in capital. Equity was 1.97% of assets at Dec-2025 and 1.19% at Jun-2026 [17]. The FY2025 audit opinion is qualified because the bank did not recognise BDT 14,014.48 crore of required provisions, which Bangladesh Bank (BB) authorised by letter no. BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263 of 30 April 2026 [1 p.2]. The auditors also drew attention to CRAR of 2.88% (solo) against the 12.5% requirement, paid-up capital of BDT 487.93 crore against the BDT 500 crore minimum, and BDT 679.99 crore of share money deposit that has not been converted into shares [1 p.3]. Reported profit for 2025 was BDT 49.8m [1 p.18]; in the first half of 2026 the bank lost BDT 6,433.4m [2 p.10].
What an investor would weigh on the positive side
- Deposits keep growing: BDT 685.9bn at Dec-2024, BDT 720.6bn at Dec-2025 and BDT 740.3bn at Jun-2026, with savings deposits up from BDT 126.2bn to BDT 151.4bn over the same period [1 p.16] [2 p.8].
- The owner is the state: the Government holds 90.19% [3 p.184], and BB has twice allowed the bank to leave provision shortfalls out of its statements, for FY2024 [3 p.78] and FY2025 [1 p.2].
- Liquidity is not the problem it is at private stressed banks: borrowings from other banks were only BDT 6.0bn at Dec-2025 and BDT 14.0bn at Jun-2026, and government securities rose to BDT 214.6bn [2 p.8]. The highlights page reports a liquidity coverage ratio of 431.33% [1 p.112].
- Classified loans fell for the first time in four years, from BDT 213.6bn to BDT 200.2bn in 2025, as sub-standard and doubtful loans fell [1 p.70].
- The authorised capital was raised from Tk700 crore to Tk2,500 crore [1 p.112], making room for the Government's share money to become shares.
What an investor would weigh on the negative side
- The provision gap is 8.4 times equity. Booked, equity at Dec-2025 would be about BDT -124bn, or BDT -253 a share, before tax effects [1 p.2] [17].
- The spread business loses money: interest paid was 1.50x interest earned in 2025 and 2.04x in H1 2026 [1 p.18] [2 p.10] [17].
- Capital is far below the minimum: CRAR fell from 5.56% in 2021 to 2.88% in 2025 and 1.70% at Jun-2026 [5 p.366] [1 p.112] [2 p.46].
- H1 2026 wiped out a third of equity: equity fell from BDT 16.6bn to BDT 10.5bn and retained earnings turned to BDT -6,384m [2 p.8].
- The free float is small: 9.81% of shares [3 p.184], about BDT 747m at the last close [17]. TBS reported on 19-May-2026 that DSE had moved the share to the 'Z' category [12].
- No cash dividend is possible under BB's new rule while paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore; Rupali's is 75.6% short of that line [6 p.1] [17].
Data
| Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26 | Oct 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUPALIBANK | 19.30 | 17.60 | 17.30 | 19.30 | 19.80 | 17.80 | 17.20 | 16.20 | 17.10 | 17.30 | 16.90 | 16.90 | 15.60 |
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Price (29-Oct-2026) | BDT 15.6 |
| 52-week closing range | BDT 15.5-20.7 |
| Market cap | BDT 7.61bn |
| Free float (non-government shares) | 9.81%, about BDT 747m at the last close |
| Shares | 487.93m |
| Paid-up capital | Tk487.93 crore (below the Tk500 crore minimum) |
| Government holding | 90.19% |
| NAV per share (Jun-2026, standalone) | BDT 21.44 |
| NAV per share if 2025 provision shortfall booked | BDT -253.13 (Dec-2025) |
| Gross NPL (Dec-2025) | 39.05% (Tk20,015 crore) |
| Provision not recognised (Dec-2025) | Tk14,014.48 crore, by BB letter of 30-Apr-2026 |
| CRAR (solo) | 2.88% Dec-2025; 1.70% Jun-2026; minimum 12.5% |
| Auditor opinion FY2025 | Qualified (Mahfel Huq & Co., G. Kibria & Co.) |
| H1 2026 EPS (standalone) | BDT -13.18 |
| Dividend | None for 2024 (regulator's directive) |
| Fiscal year end | 31 December |
Business: a state-owned deposit gatherer whose loan book stopped paying, kept afloat by government securities
Rupali Bank takes deposits from government bodies, state enterprises and households and lends to state corporations and private companies. It also holds a large book of government securities and runs trade services: export of BDT 2,594.69 crore, import of BDT 10,192.90 crore and foreign remittance of BDT 14,824.51 crore in 2025 [1 p.112]. Two subsidiaries, Rupali Investment Limited and Rupali Bank Securities Limited, are consolidated in the group accounts [1 p.8]. The bank also has an Islamic banking window, which held only BDT 12.8m of deposits at Dec-2025 [1 p.83].
What changed in five years is the loan book. Classified loans were BDT 66.7bn (17.50% of loans) in 2021, rose to BDT 100.4bn (21.03%) in 2023 and more than doubled to BDT 213.6bn (41.60%) in 2024 [5 p.366] [3 p.297]. Interest on a classified loan is not taken to income, so interest income stopped keeping pace with the interest the bank pays on deposits. Net interest income was already negative in 2021 (BDT -3,343m), but the gap widened to BDT -15,754m in 2025 [5 p.269] [1 p.18] [17]. The bank stayed in profit because investment income, mostly interest on government securities, rose from BDT 14.1bn to BDT 22.9bn over the same years [5 p.269] [1 p.18].
The state's role runs through both sides of the balance sheet. On the funding side, about half of deposits come from the public sector (note 12.06) [1 p.83]. On the lending side, TBS reported in December 2025, citing documents it reviewed and BB data, that the largest defaulters include Bangladesh Sugar and Food Industries Corporation as well as private groups such as Blue Planet, Beximco and Crony Apparels, and that 32 large clients accounted for Tk14,156 crore of defaults [13]. These borrower details are from one outlet and are not in the filings we read.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 22,368 | 24,244 | 29,004 | 33,948 | 31,764 |
| Interest paid on deposits, borrowings etc. | 25,711 | 27,309 | 31,847 | 40,609 | 47,518 |
| Net interest income | -3,343 | -3,065 | -2,842 | -6,660 | -15,754 |
| Investment income | 14,088 | 15,251 | 15,293 | 17,898 | 22,921 |
| Commission, exchange, brokerage | 1,929 | 1,943 | 2,367 | 2,217 | 3,684 |
| Other operating income | 571 | 792 | 1,469 | 1,198 | 1,383 |
| Total operating income | 13,245 | 14,921 | 16,287 | 14,652 | 12,234 |
| Total operating expenses | 12,058 | 13,854 | 10,828 | 11,474 | 11,156 |
| Profit before provision | 1,187 | 1,067 | 5,459 | 3,179 | 1,078 |
| Total provisions | 469 | 441 | 4,140 | 2,839 | 603 |
| Provision for taxation | 360 | 417 | 776 | 257 | 424 |
| Net profit after tax | 358.0 | 209.3 | 543.5 | 82.9 | 49.8 |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | 665,248 | 686,727 | 793,508 | 806,600 | 846,286 |
| Total deposits | 576,431 | 588,676 | 667,318 | 685,898 | 720,622 |
| Loans and advances | 380,834 | 435,401 | 477,601 | 513,422 | 512,527 |
| Classified loans | 66,665 | 92,248 | 100,438 | 213,578 | 200,150 |
| Total capital (Tier-I + Tier-II) | 23,666 | 22,231 | 24,588 | 16,637 | 17,160 |
| Required capital (10% of RWA) | 42,528 | 45,190 | 46,527 | 56,346 | 59,630 |
| Profit after tax | 358.0 | 209.3 | 543.5 | 82.9 | 49.8 |
Line items: interest paid was 1.50x interest earned in 2025, and government securities carried the result
Interest income. Interest income rose from BDT 22.4bn in 2021 to BDT 33.9bn in 2024 as loans grew from BDT 380.8bn to BDT 513.4bn, then fell 6.4% to BDT 31.8bn in 2025 even though loans were flat [5 p.269] [1 p.18] [17]. The printed weighted average rate of advance fell from 8.96% to 7.66% [1 p.112]. Because a classified loan stops accruing interest to income, the rise in the classified book from 21% to 39-42% of loans takes interest out of this line. In H1 2026 interest income fell a further 25.0% to BDT 12.9bn [2 p.10] [17].
Interest expense. Interest paid rose every year, from BDT 25.7bn in 2021 to BDT 47.5bn in 2025 [5 p.269] [1 p.18]. The driver is deposit cost, not borrowing: the printed cost of deposit went from 4.61% in 2021 to 6.45% in 2025, and the weighted average deposit rate from 4.42% to 6.22% [5 p.366] [1 p.112]. Fixed deposits are 73.6% of the deposit base [17], so when market deposit rates rise, the bank's cost follows as deposits reprice. Interest on deposits alone was BDT 25.4bn in H1 2026 against BDT 22.3bn a year earlier [2 p.52].
Net interest income is therefore negative, and the gap has widened: BDT -3,343m in 2021, BDT -6,660m in 2024, BDT -15,754m in 2025 and BDT -13,478m in H1 2026 alone [17]. Measured on year-end earning assets, NII fell from -0.64% to -2.84% [17]. The bank's printed spread (rate on advances less rate on deposits) fell from 3.99% to 1.44% in 2025 [1 p.112].
Investment income is what keeps the bank in profit. It rose from BDT 14.1bn in 2021 to BDT 22.9bn in 2025 and to BDT 12.0bn in H1 2026 [5 p.269] [1 p.18] [2 p.10]. Government securities on the balance sheet rose from BDT 161.7bn at Dec-2024 to BDT 214.6bn at Jun-2026 [1 p.16] [2 p.8]. Investment income was 187% of total operating income in 2025, which means every other line together was negative [17]. The printed return on investment was 10.83% in 2025 against 8.90% in 2024 [1 p.112]; any fall in treasury yields reduces this line.
Fees and other income. Commission, exchange and brokerage rose to BDT 3.7bn in 2025 from BDT 2.2bn [1 p.18], but halved to BDT 1.0bn in H1 2026 from BDT 2.2bn [2 p.10]. The trade business shrank in 2025: imports fell from BDT 18,306.61 crore to BDT 10,192.90 crore and exports from BDT 3,118.85 crore to BDT 2,594.69 crore, while remittance rose [1 p.112].
Operating expenses have been stable at BDT 10.8-13.9bn a year; staff costs are the largest part at BDT 7.2bn in 2025, down from BDT 7.8bn [1 p.18]. Cost-to-income was 91.2% in 2025 [17]. In H1 2026 opex rose 6% to BDT 6.1bn while operating income turned negative (BDT -61m), so the loss before provisions was BDT -6,153m [2 p.10] [17].
Provisions and tax. Provisions charged were small compared with the classified book: BDT 2.8bn in 2024, BDT 0.6bn in 2025 and almost nothing (BDT 62,156) in H1 2026 [1 p.18] [2 p.10]. The gap between what is required and what is kept is the deferred shortfall discussed below. Tax is charged on a thin pre-tax profit: BDT 424.4m on BDT 474.2m in 2025, so 89% of pre-tax profit went to tax [1 p.18] [17]; in H1 2026 the bank booked BDT 280.1m of tax on a pre-tax loss [2 p.10].
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 22,368.00 | 24,244.00 | 29,004.00 | 33,948.00 | 31,764.00 |
| Interest paid | 25,711.00 | 27,309.00 | 31,847.00 | 40,609.00 | 47,518.00 |
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | -3,343.00 | -3,065.00 | -2,842.00 | -6,660.00 | -15,754.00 |
| Investment income | 14,088.00 | 15,251.00 | 15,293.00 | 17,898.00 | 22,921.00 |
| H1 2025 | H1 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 17,229 | 12,920 |
| Interest paid | 23,199 | 26,398 |
| Net interest income | -5,970 | -13,478 |
| Investment income | 9,737 | 11,999 |
| Commission, exchange, brokerage | 2,154 | 1,009 |
| Total operating income | 6,246 | -61 |
| Total operating expenses | 5,729 | 6,092 |
| Profit / (loss) before provision | 517 | -6,153 |
| Net profit / (loss) after tax | 84 | -6,433 |
| EPS (BDT) | 0.17 | -13.18 |
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment income / total operating income | 106.36 | 102.21 | 93.90 | 122.15 | 187.36 |
| Cost-to-income | 91.04 | 92.85 | 66.48 | 78.30 | 91.19 |
Asset quality: BDT 200.2bn classified, 96.6% of it bad/loss, and a Tk14,014 crore provision gap left out by BB letter
Classified loans were BDT 200.2bn at Dec-2025, 39.05% of loans, after 41.60% at Dec-2024 [1 p.70]. The mix is almost all bad/loss: BDT 193.2bn bad/loss, BDT 4.9bn doubtful and BDT 2.0bn sub-standard, so 96.6% of classified loans are in the last bucket [1 p.70] [17]. The fall in 2025 came from the earlier buckets (sub-standard fell from BDT 12.8bn and doubtful from BDT 20.2bn) while bad/loss rose by BDT 12.7bn [1 p.70]. Special mention loans, the watch list before classification, rose from BDT 7.8bn to BDT 19.4bn [1 p.70].
Provisioning has not kept up. Provision kept against classified loans was BDT 17.0bn at both Dec-2024 and Dec-2025, 8.5% of the classified book [1 p.112] [17]. The required provision for loans and off-balance-sheet items was BDT 130.3bn at Dec-2025 [1 p.70], and the highlights page shows a provision deficit against loans of BDT 11,216.62 crore (BDT 12,282.84 crore in 2024) [1 p.112]. Including pension fund, investments, other assets and balances with banks, the auditors put the unrecognised provisions at BDT 14,014.48 crore [1 p.2].
This is the second year in a row that BB has allowed the shortfall to stay out of the accounts. For FY2024, BB letter no. DOS(CAMS)1157/41 (Dividend)/2025-3114 of 22 May 2025 permitted the bank to prepare its statements in this way, and the FY2024 opinion was also qualified [3 p.78]. For FY2025 the letter is BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263 of 30 April 2026 [1 p.2]. The capital note says BSD gave 'deferral advantage/regulatory forbearance' of BDT 14,014.48 crore on the bank's application [1 p.94]; we did not find a stated term or amortisation schedule in the pages read.
Measured against equity, the shortfall is large: BDT 140.1bn against equity of BDT 16.6bn, or 8.4 times. Booked in full, with no tax effect, equity would be BDT -123.5bn and book value BDT -253 a share [17]. The shortfall is 70.0% of the classified book [17]. The highlights deficit has moved with the classified book: BDT 3,078 crore in 2021, BDT 5,439 crore in 2022, BDT 3,869 crore in 2023 and BDT 12,283 crore in 2024 [5 p.366] [3 p.297].
The auditors added an emphasis of matter on loan classification itself: the bank is still implementing BRPD Circular 15 (27 November 2024) in its core banking system, and 'is yet to provide rationale about the manual intervention in CL report and the reason for the changes of CL report data with the time elapsed' [1 p.3]. Under the Companies Act section of the report they state that 'inadequate provisions have been made for advance and other assets which are in our opinion, doubtful of recovery' [1 p.8]. We did not find a classified-loan figure for Jun-2026 in the half-year notes we read.
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classified / loans | 17.51 | 21.19 | 21.03 | 41.60 | 39.05 |
| Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (incl. staff loans) | 292,077 | 292,967 |
| Special mention account | 7,768 | 19,410 |
| Sub-standard | 12,817 | 2,016 |
| Doubtful | 20,236 | 4,886 |
| Bad/loss | 180,525 | 193,248 |
| Total classified | 213,578 | 200,150 |
| Total loans | 513,422 | 512,527 |
| Percentage classified (printed) | 41.6% | 39.1% |
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provision kept / classified loans | 18.39 | 13.29 | 13.00 | 7.96 | 8.49 |
| Dec-2025 | |
|---|---|
| Provision not recognised (BB letter 30-Apr-2026) | 140,145 |
| Shareholders' equity as reported | 16,634 |
| Equity if the shortfall were booked | -123,511 |
| Book value per share, reported (BDT) | 34.09 |
| Book value per share if booked (BDT) | -253.13 |
| Shortfall / equity (x) | 8.4 |
Capital and audit: CRAR 2.88% (1.70% at Jun-2026) against 12.5%, and a qualified opinion with seven emphasis-of-matter items
Total regulatory capital was BDT 17.2bn at Dec-2025 against risk-weighted assets of BDT 596.3bn, a CRAR of 2.88% [1 p.94] [17]. The bank reports its required capital at 10% of RWA (BDT 59.6bn) and a shortage of BDT 4,247.02 crore [1 p.112]; the auditors measure it against the 12.5% that includes the capital conservation buffer [1 p.3]. On that basis the shortfall was about BDT 57.4bn [17]. If the deferred provisions were deducted, the shortfall would be about BDT 198bn [17].
The capital note shows how the figure is reached: the provision shortfall is not deducted from Common Equity Tier-1 because of the forbearance [1 p.94]. At Jun-2026 solo CRAR was 1.70%, with Tier-1 at 1.36%, after the half-year loss [2 p.46]. CRAR was 5.56% in 2021, 4.92% in 2022 and 5.28% in 2023 [5 p.366] [3 p.297]: the bank has been below the minimum for at least five years. Our recomputed ratios match the printed ones to two decimals [17]. The half-year note shows Dec-2025 solo CRAR as 2.93% against 2.88% in the audited accounts, and its requirement column is 10% (12.5% including the conservation buffer) [2 p.46].
Audit opinion. The FY2025 opinion of joint auditors Mahfel Huq & Co. and G. Kibria & Co., signed on 30 April 2026, is qualified: 'except for the possible effect of the matters described in Basis for Qualified Opinion', the statements give a true and fair view [1 p.2] [1 p.18]. The basis is the BDT 14,014.48 crore of unrecognised provisions, which the auditors say 'is not consistent with the relevant IFRS Accounting Standards' [1 p.2].
Emphasis of matter. The auditors list seven items without modifying the opinion further [1 p.3]: the basis of preparation under BB rules on loan classification and provisioning (note 2.1); share money deposit of BDT 679.99 crore that was required to be converted into share capital within six months under FRC Circular 146/FRC/SS/2020/251; paid-up capital of BDT 487.93 crore against the BDT 500 crore minimum under BRPD Circular 18 of 15 June 2023; CRAR of 2.88% solo and 2.94% consolidated against 12.5%; rent of BDT 510.3m booked as an expense for rental agreements that the auditors say meet the IFRS 16 lease criteria (alongside lease liabilities of BDT 172.8m already recognised); foreign-currency balances not retranslated at the reporting-date rate and a suspense balance to reconcile (IAS 21); and the loan classification reporting issue noted above.
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jun-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRAR | 5.56 | 4.92 | 5.28 | 2.95 | 2.88 | 1.70 |
| Minimum incl. buffer | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.50 |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capital | 23,666 | 22,231 | 24,588 | 16,637 | 17,160 |
| Required capital at 10% | 42,528 | 45,190 | 46,527 | 56,346 | 59,630 |
| Shortfall to 12.5% (model) | 29,495 | 34,257 | 33,570 | 53,796 | 57,378 |
| CRAR printed (%) | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Item | Type | What the auditors say |
|---|---|---|
| Opinion | Basis for qualified opinion | Qualified: provisions of BDT 14,014.48 crore not recognised |
| Regulatory basis | Basis for qualified opinion | BB letter BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263, 30-Apr-2026 |
| Basis of preparation (note 2.1) | Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified) | BB rules on loan classification and provisioning |
| Share money deposit | Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified) | BDT 679.99 crore not converted within 6 months (FRC circular) |
| Paid-up capital | Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified) | BDT 487.93 crore vs BDT 500 crore minimum (BRPD 18/2023) |
| CRAR | Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified) | 2.88% solo, 2.94% consolidated vs 12.5% |
| IFRS 16 | Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified) | Rent of BDT 510.3m expensed for agreements meeting IFRS 16 lease criteria; lease liabilities BDT 172.8m recognised |
| IAS 21 | Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified) | FX balances not retranslated at reporting-date rate; suspense balance to reconcile |
| Loan classification | Emphasis of matter (opinion not modified) | BRPD 15/2024 not yet in CBS; manual intervention in CL report unexplained |
| Legal report (vi) | Report on other legal requirements | Inadequate provisions for advances and other assets doubtful of recovery |
Deposits: BDT 740bn and still growing, half of it public money, 74% in fixed deposits
Deposits are the bank's strength. Total deposits grew every year, from BDT 576.4bn in 2021 to BDT 720.6bn in 2025, and to BDT 740.3bn at Jun-2026 [5 p.366] [1 p.16] [2 p.8]. Growth was 5.1% in 2025 and 2.7% in the first half of 2026 [17]. This is the opposite of National Bank, whose deposits fell from BDT 370.2bn to BDT 338.8bn in 2025 [8 p.67]; savings deposits alone rose from BDT 138.7bn to BDT 151.4bn in six months [2 p.8].
About half of the deposits are public money. Note 12.06 splits deposits by sector: at Dec-2025, BDT 16.8bn came from the presidency, prime minister's office and judiciary, BDT 53.3bn from autonomous and semi-autonomous bodies, BDT 274.4bn from the 'other public sector' and BDT 16.4bn from public banks and financial institutions, against BDT 359.7bn from the private sector [1 p.83]. The public share fell from 54.4% to 50.1% in 2025: public-sector deposits fell 3.3% while private deposits rose 15.0% [17]. Within fixed deposits, non-financial public enterprises placed BDT 123.0bn, down from BDT 141.6bn, and individuals BDT 104.3bn, up from BDT 98.0bn [1 p.83].
Government deposits are a source of stability and of concentration. A state bank's public deposits tend to stay because the depositors are owned by the same shareholder, but they are placed by policy, and a change in where state enterprises keep their money would move this line. The mix is weighted to term money: current and savings accounts were 26.1% of deposits at Dec-2025 and fixed deposits 73.6% [17]. Loans were 71.1% of deposits, so the bank is liquid; the surplus sits in government securities (23.6% of assets) [17].
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jun-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deposits | 576,431.00 | 588,676.00 | 667,318.00 | 685,898.00 | 720,622.00 | 740,289.00 |
| Loans | 380,834.00 | 435,401.00 | 477,601.00 | 513,422.00 | 512,527.00 | 521,393.00 |
| Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Presidency, PM office and judiciary | 20,332 | 16,814 |
| Autonomous and semi-autonomous bodies | 52,733 | 53,344 |
| Other public sector | 285,116 | 274,375 |
| Bank and financial institutions (public) | 14,882 | 16,384 |
| Public sector total | 373,063 | 360,918 |
| Private sector | 312,836 | 359,704 |
| Public share (%) | 54.4% | 50.1% |
| Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | Jun-2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current and other accounts | 48,779 | 49,228 | 54,599 |
| Bills payable | 3,188 | 2,405 | 2,863 |
| Savings deposits | 126,190 | 138,700 | 151,435 |
| Fixed deposits | 507,741 | 530,289 | 531,392 |
| Total deposits | 685,898 | 720,622 | 740,289 |
| Borrowing from banks, FIs and agents | 13,884 | 5,950 | 13,955 |
| Government investments | 161,658 | 199,426 | 214,593 |
| CASA share (%) | 25.5% | 26.1% | 27.8% |
| Loans / deposits (%) | 74.9% | 71.1% | 70.4% |
Cost of funds and NIM: cost of deposit 6.45%, advance rate 7.66%, and NII at -2.84% of earning assets
The bank's own measures show the squeeze. The printed 'cost of fund %' rose from 6.79% in 2021 to 8.32% in 2025, and the 'cost of deposit %' from 4.61% to 6.45% [5 p.366] [1 p.112]. Over the same period the weighted average rate on advances moved from 7.04% to 7.66%, after 8.96% in 2024 [5 p.366] [1 p.112]. The gap between the advance rate and the cost of deposit shrank from 3.29pp in 2024 to 1.21pp in 2025 [17]. These are rates on the whole book; because the classified book earns nothing to income, the realised margin is far worse.
The bank does not print a net interest margin. On our measure, net interest income over year-end earning assets (the earning assets line on the highlights page) was -0.64% in 2021, -1.30% in 2024 and -2.84% in 2025 [17]. Sensitivity from history: in 2025 the cost of deposit rose 0.78pp and interest paid rose BDT 6,909m on deposits that averaged about BDT 703bn [1 p.18] [1 p.112] [17]. Two printed series look copied in AR2024: the 2023 advance rate and spread are identical to 2024 (8.96% and 3.99%) [3 p.297], so we do not read a trend from 2023. AR2025 also restates the 2024 cost of fund from 8.05% to 8.10% [3 p.297] [1 p.112].
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of fund | 6.79 | 7.59 | 7.15 | 8.10 | 8.32 |
| Cost of deposit | 4.61 | 4.68 | 4.84 | 5.67 | 6.45 |
| Rate of advance | 7.04 | 6.91 | 8.96 | 8.96 | 7.66 |
Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NII / earning assets | -0.64 | -0.59 | -0.47 | -1.30 | -2.84 |
Ratios and peers: NPL and CRAR better than IFIC and NBL, far from NCC; 'cost of fund' similar across the group
Returns have been close to zero for five years: ROA was 0.03% to 0.006% and ROE 3.3% in 2023, 0.5% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025 [17]. Profit after tax was BDT 358m in 2021 and BDT 50m in 2025 [5 p.269] [1 p.18]. Loan growth stopped in 2025 (-0.2%) after 14.3% in 2022 [17], and the loan-to-deposit ratio fell to 71.1% [17]. Equity to assets has been about 2% throughout, against 7.6% at NCC Bank [9 p.183] [17].
We compare Rupali with two private banks under similar stress, IFIC Bank and National Bank, and with NCC Bank as a sound conventional bank, using each bank's own 2025 highlights page and quoting each label. On classified loans Rupali (39.05%) is better than IFIC (61.47%) and NBL (59.69%) but 34.9pp above NCC Bank (4.12%) [1 p.112] [7 p.242] [8 p.67] [9 p.183]. On capital Rupali's 2.88% CRAR is above IFIC's 1.82% and NBL's -5.48% (as printed in IFIC's capital note [7 p.213] and NBL's audit report [8 p.12]) and far below NCC's 15.54% [9 p.183].
On funding cost, the comparable label is 'cost of fund': Rupali printed 8.32%, IFIC 8.38% and NCC 8.81%, so Rupali is 0.06pp below IFIC and 0.49pp below NCC [1 p.112] [7 p.242] [9 p.184] [17]. NBL's figure is labelled 'Cost of Fund (including operating cost)' (10.32%) and is not like-for-like [8 p.67]. None of the banks defines the measure on the page, so we treat these as the banks' own figures, not a ranking. Rupali prints the lowest 'cost of fund' of the three, yet its NII is negative because so much of the book does not earn; at NCC 96% of loans are not classified.
| RUPALIBANK | IFIC | NBL | NCCBANK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classified loans / loans (%) | 39.1% | 61.5% | 59.7% | 4.1% |
| CRAR (%) | 2.9% | 1.8% | -5.5% | 15.5% |
| 'Cost of fund' (%) | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% |
| Deposits (BDT mn) | 720,622 | 517,162 | 338,844 | 297,389 |
| Profit after tax (BDT mn) | 49.8 | -25,616.9 | -24,298.7 | 4,861.0 |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross NPL (%) | 17.5% | 21.2% | 21.0% | 41.6% | 39.1% |
| Provision kept / classified (%) | 18.4% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% |
| CRAR (%) | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Loans / deposits (%) | 66.1% | 74.0% | 71.6% | 74.9% | 71.1% |
| Deposit growth (%) | — | 2.1% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% |
| Loan growth (%) | — | 14.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | -0.2% |
| ROA (%) | — | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ROE (%) | — | — | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| NII / earning assets (%) | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -1.3% | -2.8% |
| Cost-to-income (%) | 91.0% | 92.8% | 66.5% | 78.3% | 91.2% |
| Interest paid / interest income (x) | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
Ownership and dividend: Government 90.19%, a 9.81% float, and paid-up capital 75.6% short of BB's Tk2,000 crore dividend line
Ownership and free float. The Government held 440,052,335 shares (90.19%) and general public and institutions 47,879,730 shares (9.81%) at Dec-2024 [3 p.184]. TBS reported the same 90.19% in May 2026 and split the rest into 3.32% institutions and 6.49% general public [12]. With BDT 679.99 crore of Government money held as share money deposit [1 p.3], the state's stake would rise further once shares are allotted. The bank's 2024 Directors' Report put a resolution to its 10th EGM on 27 August 2025 to issue 453,330,253 shares at Tk15.00 each (Tk10 face value plus Tk5 premium) to the Secretary, Finance Division, against the Government's Tk679.99 crore of share money, subject to BSEC approval [3 p.78]; the Financial Express reported the plan on 1-Jul-2025 and said it would lift paid-up capital to Tk941 crore [14]. At Jun-2026 paid-up capital was still BDT 4,879.3m and the share money deposit still BDT 6,800.0m [2 p.8], so the conversion had not been completed by then.
For a minority investor this means that the float is about BDT 747m at the last close [17], that the controlling shareholder is also the main depositor and a borrower through state enterprises, and that decisions on capital, provisioning and dividends rest with the Government and BB. The FY2025 statements were signed by chairman Md. Nazrul Huda and managing director Kazi Md. Wahidul Islam [1 p.18]. The board met 24 times in 2024 [3 p.78].
Dividend. The bank declared no dividend for 2024 'due to regulator's directives' [3 p.91]. TBS reported on 19-May-2026 that DSE moved the share to the 'Z' category after no dividend was declared for two consecutive years [12]. BB's SPCD Circular 06 of 23 May 2026, effective from the year ending 31 December 2026, bars any cash dividend while paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore, and caps cash at 50% of the total dividend for banks that meet all conditions [6 p.1]. Rupali's paid-up capital of Tk487.93 crore is 75.6% short of that line (1 - 487.93/2,000) [17]. Even after the conversion reported by the Financial Express it would be 52.9% short [14] [17]. The circular also requires minimum capital including the conservation buffer, which a 2.88% CRAR does not meet [6 p.1].
News flow (24 months). Board meetings for quarterly results were held on 29-May-2025, 20-Jul-2025, 30-Oct-2025, 17-May-2026, 22-Jul-2026 and 28-Oct-2026, the annual-results board on 30-Apr-2026 and the AGM on 19-Jul-2026; DSE also listed spot-market periods in July 2025 and May 2026 [10]. TBS reported on 19-May-2026 a consolidated Q1 2026 loss of Tk396 crore [12]. TBS reported on 17-Dec-2025, citing BB data, that defaults reached Tk23,712 crore (51%) by September 2025 and that the top 20 defaulters owed Tk12,263 crore [13]; these single-outlet figures are higher than the 39.05% the audited year-end statements show [1 p.70].
| Shares | % | |
|---|---|---|
| Government | 440,052,335 | 90 |
| General public and institutions | 47,879,730 | 10 |
| Total | 487,932,065 | 100 |
| Test | Rupali | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Paid-up >= Tk2,000 crore | Tk487.93 crore | Not met: 75.6% short |
| Paid-up >= Tk500 crore (BRPD 18/2023) | Tk487.93 crore | Not met: Tk12.07 crore short |
| Minimum capital incl. buffer (12.5%) | CRAR 2.88% (Dec-25), 1.70% (Jun-26) | Not met |
| Retained earnings, Jun-2026 | BDT -6,384m | Negative |
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 29-May-2025 | Q1 2025 and annual board meetings |
| 13/17-Jul-2025 | Spot-market notices |
| 20-Jul-2025 | Q2 2025 board meeting |
| 30-Oct-2025 | Q3 2025 board meeting |
| 30-Apr-2026 | FY2025 accounts board meeting; audit report signed |
| 17-May-2026 | Q1 2026 board meeting |
| 19-Jul-2026 | AGM |
| 22-Jul-2026 | Q2 2026 board meeting |
| 28-Oct-2026 | Q3 2026 board meeting; results published 29-Oct-2026 |
What's next: Q3 2026 results, the first year-end under SPCD Circular 06, the FY2026 forbearance decision and LDC graduation in 2029
Nothing below is a forecast; each item is dated and sourced, with the line it moves.
| Date | Event | Line it moves | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Done 29-Oct-2026 | Q3 2026 results published after the 28-Oct board meeting; not yet in corpus | NII, equity, CRAR | [s10] |
| 31-Dec-2026 | First year-end under SPCD Circular 06 dividend rules | Dividend | [s6 p.1] |
| 30-Apr-2027 | FY2026 accounts due on the same cycle as FY2025 (signed 30-Apr-2026) and FY2024 (BB letter 22-May-2025); a new BB letter would be needed to keep the shortfall out | Provisions, equity, audit opinion | [s1 p.18] [s3 p.78] |
| 24-Nov-2029 | Bangladesh's LDC graduation, moved from 24-Nov-2026 by a UN General Assembly resolution adopted on 29-Oct-2026 in New York (30-Oct in Dhaka) | Trade fees (export/import) | [s15] [s16] |
Q3 2026 results (29-Oct-2026). The DSE feed shows the Q3 board meeting on 28-Oct-2026 and results published on 29-Oct-2026 [10]; the statements are not yet in our corpus, so we do not quote them. They will show whether the H1 loss of BDT 6.4bn continued and where CRAR stood at 30 September.
FY2026 accounts (about 30-Apr-2027). The FY2025 accounts were signed on 30-Apr-2026 [1 p.18] and the FY2024 accounts relied on a BB letter of 22-May-2025 [3 p.78]. The forbearance letters so far cover one year each; whether BB issues another for FY2026, and for how much, decides whether the shortfall reaches equity.
Dividend year-end (31-Dec-2026). SPCD Circular 06 applies from the year ending 31 December 2026 [6 p.1]. With paid-up capital at Tk487.93 crore, no cash dividend is possible under it [17].
LDC graduation (24-Nov-2029). The UN General Assembly adopted the move of Bangladesh's graduation from 24 November 2026 to 24 November 2029 on 29 October 2026 in New York (30 October in Dhaka) [15] [16]. For Rupali the link is through trade fees: exports of BDT 2,594.69 crore and imports of BDT 10,192.90 crore in 2025 [1 p.112]. The later date delays any loss of LDC trade preferences for the bank's export customers.
Risks: forbearance, a negative spread, treasury dependence, dilution and the quality of the loan data
Each risk is tied to the line it moves; we put no probability on any of them.
| Risk | Line it moves | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Forbearance not renewed or reversed | Provisions, equity (BDT 140.1bn gap vs BDT 16.6bn equity) | [s1 p.2] |
| Negative NII widens | Net interest income (BDT -13.5bn in H1 2026) | [s2 p.10] |
| Treasury yields fall | Investment income (BDT 22.9bn in 2025) | [s1 p.18] |
| Public deposits move | Deposits (public share 50.1%) | [s1 p.83] |
| Capital action on unequal terms | Share count, minority dilution (Government share money BDT 679.99 crore) | [s1 p.3] [s3 p.78] [s14] |
| Classification data quality | Classified loans (manual intervention in CL report) | [s1 p.3] |
| Concentrated large borrowers | Classified loans (TBS: Tk14,156 crore from 32 clients) | [s13] |
| Liquidity of the share | Trading (9.81% float; Z category per TBS) | [s3 p.184] [s12] |
Forbearance. The largest single number is the BDT 140.1bn of provisions not recognised [1 p.2]. It sits outside the profit and loss account only because of a BB letter. If it were booked, equity would be deeply negative [17].
Negative spread. The H1 2026 result shows what happens when deposit cost rises and interest income falls together: NII of BDT -13,478m and a pre-provision loss [2 p.10] [17]. Every BDT 1bn of extra interest paid moves pre-tax profit by the same amount; there is no cushion.
Treasury dependence. Investment income was larger than total operating income in every year except 2023 [17]. A fall in government securities yields would cut the only line that is growing.
Capital action and dilution. The Government's share money conversion, and any further capital the state provides, would be at prices set by the Government and BSEC. The EGM resolution priced the shares at Tk15.00 including a Tk5 premium [3 p.78]; the market price on 29-Oct-2026 was BDT 15.6 [11].
Data quality. The auditors could not get a rationale for manual changes in the classified-loan report [1 p.3], and the TBS-reported default figures for 2025 (51% in September) differ from the audited year-end 39.05% [13] [1 p.70]. Reported NPL is best read with that in mind.
Key questions: the forbearance, the spread, the share money, recoveries and public deposits
Key questions and the signposts that answer them
- Will BB renew the forbearance for FY2026, and for how much? Signpost: the FY2026 audit report, expected around 30-Apr-2027 [1 p.2].
- Can net interest income stop falling? Signpost: interest income against interest paid in the Q3 2026 and FY2026 statements [2 p.10].
- When is the Government's share money converted, and at what price? Signpost: BSEC approval of the EGM resolution; paid-up capital in the next statements [3 p.78] [14] [2 p.8].
- Is the classified book being recovered or written off? Signpost: note 7.10 classification table and the special-mention line (BDT 19.4bn at Dec-2025) [1 p.70].
- Do public deposits keep falling as a share? Signpost: note 12.06 sector split in the FY2026 accounts [1 p.83].
| Item | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Highlights (capital, NPL, deposits, loans, rates) | 2021-2025 | AR2022 p.366, AR2024 p.297, AR2025 p.112 |
| Profit and loss | 2021-2025 | AR2022 p.269, AR2023 p.287, AR2025 p.18 |
| Balance sheet and deposit mix | Dec-22 to Jun-26 | AR2023 p.285, AR2025 p.16, p.83; Q2 2026 p.8 |
| Loan classification and provisions | Dec-24, Dec-25 | AR2025 p.70 |
| Capital | Dec-25, Jun-26 | AR2025 p.94; Q2 2026 p.46 |
| Half-year P&L | H1 2025, H1 2026 | Q2 2026 p.10, p.52 |
| Audit report | FY2025, FY2024 | AR2025 p.2-8; AR2024 p.78 |
The model
History
| BDT mn | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paid-up capital | 4,556 | 4,647 | 4,647 | 4,879 | 4,879 |
| Total capital (Tier-I + Tier-II) | 23,666 | 22,231 | 24,588 | 16,637 | 17,160 |
| Required capital (Basel III, 10% of RWA) | 42,528 | 45,190 | 46,527 | 56,346 | 59,630 |
| CRAR as reported | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Total assets | 665,248 | 686,727 | 793,508 | 806,600 | 846,286 |
| Total deposits | 576,431 | 588,676 | 667,318 | 685,898 | 720,622 |
| Total loans and advances | 380,834 | 435,401 | 477,601 | 513,422 | 512,527 |
| Total classified loans | 66,665 | 92,248 | 100,438 | 213,578 | 200,150 |
| Provision kept against classified loans | 12,258 | 12,257 | 13,056 | 16,999 | 16,999 |
| Provision surplus / (deficit) against loans and advances | -30,784 | -54,388 | -38,690 | -122,828 | -112,166 |
| Profit after tax and provision | 358.0 | 209.3 | 543.5 | 82.9 | 49.8 |
| Total shareholders' equity (solo balance sheet) | — | 16,347 | 16,632 | 16,517 | 16,634 |
| Cost of fund % (as printed) | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% |
| Cost of deposit % (as printed) | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% |
| Earning assets | 523,330 | 515,423 | 607,649 | 511,254 | 554,763 |
| Spread % (as printed) | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Weighted average rate of advance (as printed) | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% |
| Ratios | |||||
| Gross NPL ratio (classified / loans) | 17.5% | 21.2% | 21.0% | 41.6% | 39.1% |
| Provision kept / classified loans | 18.4% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% |
| CRAR recomputed (total capital / (required capital / 10%)) | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Capital shortfall to 12.5% (incl. conservation buffer) | 29,495 | 34,257 | 33,570 | 53,796 | 57,378 |
| Loans / deposits | 66.1% | 74.0% | 71.6% | 74.9% | 71.1% |
| Deposit growth | — | 2.1% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% |
| Loan growth | — | 14.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | -0.2% |
| Classified loan growth | — | 38.4% | 8.9% | 112.6% | -6.3% |
| ROA (avg assets) | — | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ROE (avg equity) | — | — | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Equity / total assets | — | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Advance rate minus cost of deposit (pp) | 2.43 | 2.23 | 4.12 | 3.29 | 1.21 |
| Provision deficit / equity | — | 3.3 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 6.7 |
P&L
| BDT mn | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 22,368 | 24,244 | 29,004 | 33,948 | 31,764 |
| Interest paid on deposits, borrowings etc. | 25,711 | 27,309 | 31,847 | 40,609 | 47,518 |
| Investment income | 14,088 | 15,251 | 15,293 | 17,898 | 22,921 |
| Commission, exchange, brokerage etc. | 1,929 | 1,943 | 2,367 | 2,217 | 3,684 |
| Other operating income | 571 | 792 | 1,469 | 1,198 | 1,383 |
| Total operating expenses | 12,058 | 13,854 | 10,828 | 11,474 | 11,156 |
| of which salary and allowances | 5,962 | 6,571 | 6,572 | 7,844 | 7,190 |
| Total provisions | 469 | 441 | 4,140 | 2,839 | 603 |
| Provision for taxation | 360 | 417 | 776 | 257 | 424 |
| Net profit after tax | 358.0 | 209.3 | 543.5 | 82.9 | 49.8 |
| Net interest income | -3,343 | -3,065 | -2,842 | -6,660 | -15,754 |
| Non-interest income (investment + fees + other) | 16,588 | 17,986 | 19,130 | 21,313 | 27,988 |
| Total operating income | 13,245 | 14,921 | 16,287 | 14,652 | 12,234 |
| Profit before provision | 1,187 | 1,067 | 5,459 | 3,179 | 1,078 |
| Profit before tax | 718 | 626 | 1,319 | 340 | 474 |
| Check: PBT - tax - PAT (should be ~0) | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Net interest income / earning assets (year-end, History sheet) | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -1.3% | -2.8% |
| Interest paid / interest income | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Investment income / total operating income | 106% | 102% | 94% | 122% | 187% |
| Cost-to-income (opex / total operating income) | 91.0% | 92.8% | 66.5% | 78.3% | 91.2% |
| Tax / profit before tax | 50% | 67% | 59% | 76% | 89% |
| Interest income growth | — | 8.4% | 19.6% | 17.0% | -6.4% |
| Interest paid growth | — | 6.2% | 16.6% | 27.5% | 17.0% |
| Investment income growth | — | 8.3% | 0.3% | 17.0% | 28.1% |
Half-years
| BDT mn | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 17,229 | 12,920 |
| Interest paid on deposits, borrowings etc. | 23,199 | 26,398 |
| of which interest on deposits | 22,266 | 25,421 |
| Investment income | 9,737 | 11,999 |
| Commission, exchange, brokerage etc. | 2,154 | 1,009 |
| Other operating income | 325 | 408 |
| Total operating expenses | 5,729 | 6,092 |
| Total provisions | 245.0 | 0.1 |
| Provision for taxation | 189 | 280 |
| Net profit / (loss) after tax | 84 | -6,433 |
| Net interest income | -5,970 | -13,478 |
| Total operating income | 6,246 | -61 |
| Profit / (loss) before provision | 517 | -6,153 |
| Check: PPOP - provisions - tax - PAT | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Interest paid / interest income | 1.35 | 2.04 |
| Interest income change vs H1 2025 | — | -25.0% |
| Interest paid change vs H1 2025 | — | 13.8% |
| Loss per share (487.93m shares) | 0.17 | -13.19 |
Funding
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | Jun-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current and other accounts | 48,779 | 49,228 | 54,599 |
| Bills payable | 3,188 | 2,405 | 2,863 |
| Savings deposits | 126,190 | 138,700 | 151,435 |
| Fixed deposits | 507,741 | 530,289 | 531,392 |
| Total deposits | 685,898 | 720,622 | 740,289 |
| Borrowing from other banks, FIs and agents | 13,884 | 5,950 | 13,955 |
| Loans and advances | 513,422 | 512,527 | 521,393 |
| Government investments | 161,658 | 199,426 | 214,593 |
| Cash (in hand + BB and Sonali Bank) | 36,123 | 42,924 | 38,778 |
| Other liabilities | 90,301 | 103,080 | 113,148 |
| Total assets | 806,600 | 846,286 | 877,854 |
| Total shareholders' equity | 16,517 | 16,634 | 10,462 |
| Check: sum of deposit lines - total | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| CASA share (current + savings) | 25.5% | 26.1% | 27.8% |
| Fixed deposit share | 74.0% | 73.6% | 71.8% |
| Loans / deposits | 74.9% | 71.1% | 70.4% |
| Government investments / total assets | 20.0% | 23.6% | 24.4% |
| Equity / total assets | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Deposit change vs prior column | — | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Book value per share (487.93m shares) | 33.85 | 34.09 | 21.44 |
Deposit sectors
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Presidency, prime minister office and judiciary | 20,332 | 16,814 |
| Autonomous and semi-autonomous bodies | 52,733 | 53,344 |
| Other public sector | 285,116 | 274,375 |
| Bank and financial institutions (public) | 14,882 | 16,384 |
| Private sector | 312,836 | 359,704 |
| Fixed deposits from non-financial public enterprises | 141,568 | 123,042 |
| Total deposits incl. bills payable | 685,898 | 720,622 |
| Public-sector deposits (first four lines) | 373,063 | 360,918 |
| Public-sector share of deposits | 54.4% | 50.1% |
| Public-sector deposit change | — | -3.3% |
| Private-sector deposit change | — | 15.0% |
Shortfall
| BDT mn | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|
| Provision not recognised (BB letter BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263, 30-Apr-2026) | 140,145 |
| Shareholders' equity, Dec-2025 | 16,634 |
| Shares outstanding (mn) | 487.93 |
| Total regulatory capital, Dec-2025 (solo) | 17,160 |
| Total risk-weighted assets, Dec-2025 (solo) | 596,302 |
| Classified loans, Dec-2025 | 200,150 |
| of which bad/loss | 193,248 |
| Required provision for loans and off-balance sheet items | 130,291 |
| Share money deposit (government funds awaiting share allotment) | 6,800 |
| Shareholders' equity, Jun-2026 | 10,462 |
| Equity if the shortfall were booked (no tax effect) | -123,511 |
| Book value per share | 34.09 |
| Book value per share if shortfall booked | -253.13 |
| Shortfall / equity | 8.4 |
| Shortfall / classified loans | 70.0% |
| Bad/loss share of classified loans | 96.6% |
| CRAR (total capital / RWA) | 2.9% |
| Capital required at 12.5% of RWA | 74,538 |
| Capital shortfall to 12.5% | 57,378 |
| Capital shortfall to 12.5% if provision shortfall booked | 197,523 |
| Book value per share, Jun-2026 | 21.44 |
Dividend rule
| BDT mn | Value |
|---|---|
| Paid-up capital, Jun-2026 (BDT mn) | 4,879 |
| SPCD C06 para 3(ka): no cash dividend if paid-up below | 20,000 |
| BRPD Circular 18 (2023) minimum paid-up | 5,000 |
| Paid-up if government share money converted (FE plan) | 9,410 |
| Shortfall to Tk2,000 crore line (1 - paid-up / 2,000 crore) | 75.6% |
| Paid-up below the Tk2,000 crore line (BDT mn) | 15,121 |
| Paid-up below the Tk500 crore minimum (BDT mn) | 120.7 |
| Shortfall to Tk2,000 crore after the FE-reported conversion | 52.9% |
Peers
| BDT mn | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|
| RUPALIBANK 'Percentage of classified loans against total loans and advances' | 39.1% |
| IFIC 'Percentage of classified loan against total loans & advances' | 61.5% |
| NBL 'Percentage of Classified Loans against total Loans and Advances' | 59.7% |
| NCCBANK 'Non performing loans as % of total loans' | 4.1% |
| RUPALIBANK CRAR (printed) | 2.9% |
| IFIC 'Total capital' (BDT mn) | 10,643 |
| IFIC 'Capital surplus/(deficit)' vs 10% (BDT mn) | -47,988 |
| NBL 'Total Capital (Tier-I+II)' (BDT mn) | -34,240 |
| NBL 'Capital Surplus/ (Deficit)' vs 12.5% (BDT mn) | -112,345 |
| NCCBANK 'Capital to Risk Weighted Assets (CRAR)' | 15.5% |
| RUPALIBANK 'Cost of fund %' | 8.3% |
| IFIC 'Cost of fund' | 8.4% |
| NCCBANK 'Cost of fund (COF) (%)' | 8.8% |
| NBL 'Cost of Fund (including operating cost)' | 10.3% |
| RUPALIBANK total deposits (BDT mn) | 720,622 |
| IFIC total deposits (BDT mn) | 517,162 |
| NBL total deposits (BDT mn) | 338,844 |
| NCCBANK deposits (BDT mn) | 297,389 |
| RUPALIBANK profit after tax (BDT mn) | 49.8 |
| IFIC 'Profit after tax & provision' (BDT mn) | -25,617 |
| NBL 'Profit after Provision & Tax' (BDT mn) | -24,299 |
| NCCBANK 'Profit after tax' (BDT mn) | 4,861 |
| IFIC CRAR derived (total capital / ((capital - deficit)/10%)) | 1.8% |
| NBL CRAR derived (total capital / ((capital - deficit)/12.5%)) | -5.5% |
| RUPALIBANK cost of fund minus IFIC (pp) | -0.06 |
| RUPALIBANK cost of fund minus NCCBANK (pp) | -0.49 |
| RUPALIBANK NPL minus NCCBANK (pp) | 34.93 |
Market
| BDT mn | Value |
|---|---|
| Close, 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 15.60 |
| Shares (mn) | 487.93 |
| Equity Dec-2025 | 16,634 |
| Equity Jun-2026 | 10,462 |
| Government holding | 90.2% |
| Market cap (BDT mn) | 7,612 |
| Free-float market cap (BDT mn) | 747 |
| Price / book Dec-2025 | 0.46 |
| Price / book Jun-2026 | 0.73 |
FAQ
- What is Rupali Bank's NPL ratio?
- 39.05% of loans were classified at 31-Dec-2025 (BDT 200.2bn), down from 41.60% at Dec-2024; 96.6% of classified loans are bad/loss [1 p.70].
- Does Rupali Bank have a provision shortfall?
- Yes. The auditors say BDT 14,014.48 crore of required provisions were not recognised at Dec-2025, as authorised by BB letter BSD-4/Rupali/2026-263 of 30-Apr-2026 [1 p.2].
- What is Rupali Bank's CRAR?
- 2.88% solo at Dec-2025 and 1.70% at Jun-2026, against 12.5% including the conservation buffer [1 p.3] [2 p.46].
- Was the FY2025 audit opinion qualified?
- Yes, on the unrecognised provisions, with seven emphasis-of-matter items including CRAR, paid-up capital below Tk500 crore and unconverted share money [1 p.2] [1 p.3].
- Who owns Rupali Bank?
- The Government holds 90.19%; general public and institutions hold 9.81% [3 p.184].
- Can Rupali Bank pay a dividend?
- Not a cash dividend under SPCD Circular 06 while paid-up capital (Tk487.93 crore) is below Tk2,000 crore; it is 75.6% short [6 p.1] [17].
- Which results does this note use?
- Standalone audited statements 2021-2025 and the unaudited H1 2026 statements. The Q3 2026 statements (published 29-Oct-2026) are not yet in our corpus.
Sources
- Rupali Bank PLC audited financial statements 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025), joint auditors Mahfel Huq & Co. and G. Kibria & Co. · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Rupali Bank PLC unaudited financial statements, six months to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Rupali Bank PLC Annual Report 2024 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Rupali Bank PLC Annual Report 2023 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Rupali Bank Limited Annual Report 2022 (with 2021 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- IFIC Bank PLC Annual Report 2025 (peer: solo financial highlights) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- National Bank PLC audited financial statements 2025 (peer: highlights) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- NCC Bank PLC Annual Report 2025 (peer: five-year standalone information) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- DSE announcements via AnalystBro events: board meetings (LR16/LR19), AGM 19-Jul-2026, Q2 and Q3 2026 results, spot-market notices · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:RUPALIBANK daily bars to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Mounting defaults push Rupali Bank PLC into Tk396cr quarterly loss' (19-May-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Rupali Bank's risky lending to 32 large clients ends up in Tk14,156cr defaults' (17-Dec-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Financial Express, 'Rupali Bank to boost paid-up capital with govt fund adjusted new shares' (1-Jul-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years before LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
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