Eastern Bank valuation report: fair value BDT 20.4–39.5 (Oct 2026)

Eastern Bank: fair value range BDT 20–40; the Tk2,000 crore rule stops cash dividends while paid-up capital is Tk1,644 crore

Fair value range BDT 20–40 (base 29); the price of 23.7 sits in the lower half. Its investment income now exceeds net interest income (gross loan interest is still larger); funding cost, asset quality and a dividend year without cash decide value.

Company · Initiation · 31 Oct 2026 · FY2025 annual + 9M 2026 (to 30-Sep-2026) · By AnalystBro Team · 16 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Fair value range
৳20–40
Base ৳29 · price in the lower half of the range · probability-weighted ৳30
Price ৳23.70
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Bear ৳20Base ৳29Bull ৳40Price ৳23.70

Residual income on adjusted book 80% (Ke 15.8%, normalised ROE_s 14.8%, g 7.0%, excess capital above 7% growth earns Ke) · justified P/E 6.4x on normalised EPS 20%

  • Residual income (80%)৳23
  • Justified P/E on normalised EPS (20%)৳6
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 23.7
52-week range (weekly closes, adjusted for stock dividends)BDT 21.5–27.9
Market capBDT 39.0bn
Shares outstanding1,643.7mn
Year end / last filing in our corpus31 Dec / 9M 2026 (30-Sep-2026)
P/B (standalone book, Sep-26)0.72x on BDT 33.03
P/E on FY2026F / FY2027F EPS4.4x / 4.5x
9M 2026 EPS (standalone)BDT 4.04 (9M 2025: 3.81 restated)
9M 2026 consolidated EPSBDT 4.10 (9M 2025: 3.56 restated)
Gross NPL (Sep-26 / Dec-25)3.70% / 2.24%
Special mention loans (Sep-26 / Dec-25)BDT 18.9bn / 11.9bn
CRAR / Tier-1 (Dec-25, standalone)15.49% / 11.86% vs 12.5% minimum
Loans / deposits (Sep-26)73.0%
Current + savings deposits / deposits (Sep-26)27.6%
Investments (Sep-26 / Dec-25)BDT 292bn / 211bn
Beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX, Blume-adjusted)0.80 raw / 0.87
Dividend FY202525% cash + 3% stock (AGM 11-Jun-2026)
Cash dividend from FY2026Barred until paid-up capital reaches Tk2,000 crore (now Tk1,644 crore; BB SPCD circular 06, 23-May-2026)
Authorised capitalTk2,500 crore (room to cross Tk2,000 crore without an EGM)
Credit ratingCRAB AAA / ST-1 (Jun-2026); Moody's B2
Estimates
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net interest income10,5859,833745-3,236-2,864
Investment income10,17114,53025,88130,53733,256
Fees, exchange and other income5,8716,6147,2688,1409,117
Total operating income26,62730,97733,89435,44239,509
Profit before provisions15,94018,47320,14820,24922,754
Total provisions2,9644,3575,2925,8075,804
Net profit after tax (standalone)7,5059,0098,9248,66510,170
EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares)4.575.485.435.276.19
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)1.452.430.001.051.24
Book value per share (BDT)26.2030.9434.4239.6944.83
ROE (NPAT / avg equity)18.6%19.2%16.6%14.2%14.6%
Gross NPL ratio3.3%2.2%3.9%4.2%4.3%
CRAR15.1%15.5%17.0%19.0%18.6%
P/E at 23.7—4.3x4.4x4.5x3.8x
P/B at 23.7—0.8x0.7x0.6x0.5x

Fair value BDT 20–40, base 29: the price of 23.7 assumes a 13% sustainable ROE against our 15%

We put Eastern Bank's (EBL) fair value at BDT 20–40, base 29 (probability-weighted 29.6), against a price of 23.7. Standalone net profit rose 20% to BDT 9.0bn in FY2025 [1 p.404] and 6% to BDT 6.64bn in the nine months to September 2026, an EPS of 4.04 against 3.81 [3 p.8]. The growth came from government securities, not lending. In nine months loans fell 3.4% to BDT 461bn while deposits rose 13.3% to BDT 631bn, and investments grew from BDT 211bn to 292bn [3 p.6]. Investment income rose 68% to BDT 18.5bn while net interest income fell from BDT 7.3bn to 1.5bn, and was negative in the third quarter (minus BDT 0.45bn) [3 p.8]. The bank says so itself: it 'borrowed heavily and invested proceeds into government securities', so net interest income fell in 2025 [1 p.82].

Our forecast has standalone EPS of BDT 5.43 in FY2026F, 5.27 in FY2027F and 6.19 in FY2028F. FY2026F is the filed nine months plus a fourth quarter of BDT 2.28bn, close to Q3's 2.35bn and below Q4 2025's 2.74bn because provisions run at Q3's higher rate [s3 p.8; s10]. FY2027F profit dips: the investment yield falls about 1pp as bonds bought at 2025–26 yields roll off, while the cost of funds, 6.43% annualised in Q3 2026 and still rising, falls more slowly [s3 p.8; s10].

Cash dividends stop for FY2026. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular No. 06 of 23 May 2026 bars any cash dividend while a bank's paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore [6]. EBL's is Tk1,644 crore after the 3% stock dividend for FY2025 [3 p.6]. FY2025's 25% cash dividend (BDT 2.50 a share, a 10.5% yield at today's price) cannot be repeated for FY2026; we assume a 22% stock dividend for FY2026 takes paid-up capital past the line in mid-2027, after which cash can be at most half the total dividend. Retaining the cash lowers ROE: we normalise ROE at 14.8% against an FY2022–25 median of 17.7% (NPAT over average equity, range 15.5%–19.2%) [s10 on s1 p.80].

Against a cost of equity of 15.8%, 14.8% justifies 0.89x adjusted book. The price implies a sustainable ROE of about 13.2%, below every year since FY2021 (15.5% reported for FY2021 [1 p.81]): the market is pricing a lasting fall in returns, near our bear case. The largest single risk is funding cost: 1pp more on deposits and borrowings from FY2027 takes base value to BDT 6.0, because deposits and borrowings are about 1.5 times loans. We rate uncertainty High. The stock rose 14% in two years against 3% for the DSEX [7]. The latest period in this report is the nine months to 30 September 2026.

Model update

  • This model uses the nine months to 30 September 2026 and will be updated with the FY2026 audited accounts (expected by April 2027), which will also give the first 2026 capital ratios and the FY2026 dividend under the new rule.
Exhibit 1EBL rose 14% in two years while the DSEX rose 3%
Index, Oct-2024 = 100
050.0100150Oct-24Jan-25Mar-25 (2)Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26May-26Aug-26
EBLDSEX
Data
Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Mar-25 (2)Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Mar-26 (2)Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26Sep-26Oct-26
EBL100.0094.9092.8096.80102.00102.80106.8097.90104.50115.70119.40118.90115.20109.10105.90113.80116.10125.50125.50124.50114.30117.20117.70115.80114.80110.50113.80
DSEX100.00101.9097.1098.8098.5099.0099.0093.2089.6096.40102.90106.80103.0097.4095.6092.9097.00104.00101.80100.0099.80105.00110.40111.50107.70105.20103.00
Source: DSE weekly closes via AnalystBro [7]; rebased to 100 in Oct-2024; adjusted for stock dividends, not cash · The May-2026 drop is the FY2025 cash dividend (BDT 2.50, record date 6-May-2026). A DSE bank index was not available; the DSEX is used
Exhibit 2We forecast EPS of BDT 5.43 in FY2026F rising to 6.19 in FY2028F as bond income replaces lending margin
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net interest income10,5859,833745-3,236-2,864
Investment income10,17114,53025,88130,53733,256
Fees, exchange and other income5,8716,6147,2688,1409,117
Total operating income26,62730,97733,89435,44239,509
Profit before provisions15,94018,47320,14820,24922,754
Total provisions2,9644,3575,2925,8075,804
Net profit after tax (standalone)7,5059,0098,9248,66510,170
EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares)4.575.485.435.276.19
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)1.452.430.001.051.24
Book value per share (BDT)26.2030.9434.4239.6944.83
ROE (NPAT / avg equity)18.6%19.2%16.6%14.2%14.6%
Gross NPL ratio3.3%2.2%3.9%4.2%4.3%
CRAR15.1%15.5%17.0%19.0%18.6%
P/E at 23.7—4.3x4.4x4.5x3.8x
P/B at 23.7—0.8x0.7x0.6x0.5x
Source: AnalystBro model [10]; FY2024–25 standalone actuals [s1 p.80, p.404]
Exhibit 3The scenario range runs from BDT 20 to 40; the price of 23.7 is in its lower half
15.020.025.030.035.040.045.0Residual income (80%)19.939.7Justified P/E on normalised EPS (20%)22.838.6Blended fair value20.439.552-week range21.527.9Price 23.7Base 29
Data
LowHigh
Residual income (80%)19.939.7
Justified P/E on normalised EPS (20%)22.838.6
Blended fair value20.439.5
52-week range21.527.9
Source: AnalystBro model [10] · Bars: low and high of each method across the bear and bull cases; blend 80% residual income, 20% justified P/E

Bulls say

  • The cost of funds (6.3% annualised in 9M 2026) is below 8.6–8.8% on T-bills: the bond book earns a positive carry with no risk weight, and CRAR rises with retained profit.
  • The card and retail franchise is growing: gross card fees rose 46% in H1 2026, and retail and SME deposits are two thirds of the deposit base.
  • Gross NPL of 3.70% at September 2026, covered 1.14 times by loan provisions, is among the better figures in a system with heavy classified loans.

Bears say

  • Net interest income turned negative in Q3 2026 (minus BDT 0.45bn): loans are shrinking and the loan yield fell about 1pp in a year while funding cost rose.
  • NPL rose from 2.24% to 3.70% and special mention loans by 58% in nine months; the subsidiary EBL Securities lost BDT 0.68bn in 2025.
  • No cash dividend for FY2026 removes the 10% yield that supported the stock; the route to Tk2,000 crore is a large stock dividend or a rights issue.

What would change our view

  • Up: loan growth resuming with the yield holding near 10%, or the cost of funds falling below 5.8% as T-bill yields ease.
  • Down: NPL above 4% in the FY2026 audit, or quarterly net interest income turning negative.

EBL is a BDT 810bn corporate, trade and retail bank; retail and SME banking hold two thirds of its deposits

Eastern Bank PLC is a mid-sized Bangladeshi private commercial bank with 85 branches, 52 sub-branches, 119 agent outlets, 440 ATMs and deposit machines and 3,175 permanent staff at end-2025 [1 p.82]. Total assets were BDT 827bn at September 2026 [3 p.6]. It earns money in four ways. First, corporate and trade lending: loans of BDT 461bn at September 2026, mostly corporate term loans, overdrafts and trade bills, with BDT 443bn of import L/Cs and 375bn of exports handled in 2025 [s3 p.6; s1 p.81]. Large-loan exposure fell from 33% of the book in 2021 to 15% in 2025 [1 p.81]. Second, treasury: BDT 277bn of government securities at September 2026 [3 p.6]; EBL had 19.6% of the primary government securities market, 11% of the interbank spot FX market and 19% of swaps in 2025 [1 p.353]. Third, retail and SME banking, including one of the country's larger card businesses. Fourth, the offshore banking unit and four small subsidiaries.

Retail, SME and cards. Retail and SME banking held BDT 374bn of deposits (67% of the bank) and BDT 84bn of loans at end-2025, earning BDT 10.9bn of revenue, up 19% [1 p.347]; retail loan NPL was 1.87%. Cards are the most distinctive part: in H1 2026 gross card fees were BDT 1.75bn, up 46% from 1.20bn, led by merchant service commission (BDT 591mn against 277mn), late-payment and over-limit fees (301mn against 155mn) and interchange (223mn) [2 p.22]. Card direct costs (membership, acquiring and interchange charges, cash-back) rose faster, to BDT 1.33bn, so net card fees were BDT 421mn against 341mn (+24%) [2 p.22]. EBL runs 13,965 POS terminals, launched a Mastercard World Elite biometric metal credit card in 2025 and acts as Visa's national net settlement agent for 32 banks [s1 p.348, p.351]. Card income sits in fees, which we grow 10% in FY2026F and 12% in FY2027F; the card book itself is inside loans.

What is changing. The bank has new leadership: according to DSE announcements, Hassan O. Rashid became managing director on 19 April 2026 and Anis Ahmed was elected chairman on 30 July 2026 [5]. It is shrinking loans (down 3.4% in nine months) while deposits keep growing, so new money goes to bonds. It is also building Tier-2 capital: a BDT 8bn 4th subordinated bond was issued in 2025 [1 p.361], and a further BDT 8bn seven-year floating-rate bond (coupon: average six-month deposit rate plus 3%) received BSEC consent on 21 December 2025 [5]; subordinated bonds outstanding were BDT 11.4bn at September 2026 [3 p.17], so we assume the new bond in FY2027.

Exhibit 4Investment income overtook net interest income in FY2025 and we forecast it at 112% of core income in FY2027F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net interest income7,7616,6998,14810,5859,833745-3,236-2,864
Investment income6,0896,7057,68210,17114,53025,88130,53733,256
Fees, exchange and other income3,3084,3854,6985,8716,6147,2688,1409,117
Total operating income17,15817,78920,52826,62730,97733,89435,44239,509
Investment income / (NII + investment income)44.0%50.0%48.5%49.0%59.6%97.2%111.9%109.4%
Fees and other income / total operating income19.3%24.7%22.9%22.0%21.4%21.4%23.0%23.1%
Source: AR 2025 p.80, p.404 [1]; AnalystBro model [10] · F01 flags investment income above 60% of core income; at EBL the funding cost of the bond book sits in interest expense, so NII understates lending and the two lines should be read together (core NIM, earnings section)

No subsidiary passes the 10% test; EBL Securities lost BDT 0.68bn in 2025 and we write it down to its own book

We test each part of the group against our significance rule (10% of profit, assets or value, a listing, or a material risk) using its own FY2025 statements. EBL Securities PLC, the brokerage (4.88% DSE market share in 2025 [1 p.360]), lost BDT 680mn in 2025 after 818mn in 2024 [1 p.530]; its equity fell to BDT 937mn [1 p.513] against the bank's BDT 2,217mn investment at cost [2 p.17]. Its losses explain most of the gap between consolidated profit (BDT 8.34bn) and standalone (9.01bn) [s1 p.398, p.404]. The loss is 7.6% of bank profit and below the threshold, but it is a risk, so we deduct the BDT 1.28bn gap between cost and its book from adjusted book once and value the bank on standalone figures.

EBL Investments (merchant bank) earned BDT 8mn, EBL Asset Management 5mn [s1 p.361, p.362], and EBL Finance (HK), the Hong Kong trade-finance company, HKD 7.84mn (about BDT 123mn) on HKD 234mn of loans [1 p.362]. Each is below 1.5% of bank profit; they stay at cost. The Myanmar representative office in Yangon closed in 2024 [1 p.467]; a representative office in Guangzhou remains [1 p.357]. None of these moves a line in our model.

Offshore Banking Unit. The OBU is a division inside the standalone accounts, not a subsidiary. It lends in foreign currency against bills: BDT 52.4bn of loans at end-2025 (11% of bank loans, up from 27.0bn), funded mainly by BDT 41.7bn of foreign borrowings [1 p.491]. It earned BDT 250mn in 2025 (2.8% of bank profit) and still carries an accumulated loss of BDT 555mn [s1 p.491, p.493]. Because it is 11% of loans it is significant on the asset test, but its earnings are small and already inside our loan yield, cost of funds and borrowing lines; its risk is refinancing short dollar borrowings, which we test through the cost-of-funds shock. Sum of the parts does not apply: no part reaches 15% of value with economics different from the bank.

Exhibit 5Four subsidiaries and the OBU together earn less than 1% of bank profit net of the brokerage loss
FY2025, BDT mnNet profitEquity / net assetsTotal assetsShare of bank NPAT
EBL Securities PLC (brokerage)-6809377,892-7.6%
EBL Investments Ltd (merchant bank)8n/d1,2330.1%
EBL Asset Management Ltd51982040.1%
EBL Finance (HK) Ltd1236013,6671.4%
Offshore Banking Unit (division)250-91153,3672.8%
Source: AR 2025 p.360–362, p.491–493, p.513, p.530 [1]; Subsidiaries sheet [10] · EBL Finance (HK) converted at BDT 15.66/HKD (June 2026 rate [2 p.19]); EBL Investments' equity not shown in the extract we read; OBU equity is its accumulated loss and translation reserve

EBL paid 6.3% for funds in 9M 2026 against 8.6–8.8% on T-bills in October; that gap is the bond carry

Bangladesh's banking system grew deposits 10.7% and loans only 4.3% in the year to June 2026, and the weighted-average deposit rate eased from 6.31% to 6.21% while the lending rate fell from 12.33% to 12.13% (Scheduled Banks Statistics, Table 102 [9]). Bangladesh Bank held the repo (policy) rate at 10.00% through 2025, with call money at 9.75–10.50% [s1 p.353–354]; by 29 October 2026 overnight call money averaged 9.24%, 91-day to 364-day T-bills cleared at 8.56–8.79% and the 10-year bond at 9.27% [8]. We did not verify the current policy rate.

EBL's cost of funds (interest expense over average deposits and borrowings) was 4.43% in 2023, 5.89% in 2024 and 6.44% in 2025 [1 p.82]. In 2026 it was 6.18% annualised in the first half and 6.43% in the third quarter, 6.31% for the nine months [s10; s3 p.6, p.8]; the bank's year-end deposit rate was 6.40% in 2025, a little above the system's 6.21% for the year to June 2025 [s1 p.82; s9]. Current and savings deposits were 27.6% of deposits at September 2026 and fixed deposits 58% (BDT 366bn, up from 303bn at December) [3 p.17], so the deposit cost is sticky. Borrowings fell to BDT 99bn as foreign borrowings were repaid (BDT 8.6bn against 27.8bn at December); they include BDT 33.4bn of export development fund refinance, 26.4bn of assured repo against a government special-purpose bond and 11.4bn of subordinated bonds [3 p.17].

What this means for the forecast. A bank paying 6.2% can buy T-bills at 8.6–8.8%: the carry is the reason EBL keeps adding bonds. As T-bill yields fall, the carry narrows unless deposit costs follow. We take the cost of funds from 6.4% (Q4 2026) to 6.1% and 5.8% in FY2027–28F, a slower fall than in market yields, and the loan yield from 9.6% to 9.2%. Deposits grow 12% and 11% in FY2027–28F (the bank grew 22–25% a year in 2024–25 [1 p.81]), loans 8% and 10% as credit demand recovers from a low base; loans to deposits fall to 68.4%.

Exhibit 6EBL's cost of funds rose to 6.43% in Q3 2026 while T-bill yields sat below 9%
2023202420259M 2026 / Oct-2026
EBL cost of funds4.4%5.9%6.4%6.3%
EBL year-end deposit rate4.7%6.3%6.4%—
System weighted-average deposit rate (FY to June)——6.3%6.2%
Policy (repo) rate——10.0%—
364-day T-bill cut-off———8.8%
Source: AR 2025 p.82 [1]; 9M 2026 p.6, p.8 [3]; BB SBS Table 102 [9]; BB auctions [8] · Blank = not in our sources. System rates are for the fiscal years to June 2025 and June 2026
Exhibit 7We forecast deposits of BDT 808bn and loans of 553bn by FY2028F
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Deposits457,692556,454649,578727,527807,555
Borrowings incl. subordinated bonds79,167113,440103,932116,404121,133
Loans and advances410,718477,040465,285502,508552,758
Investments143,046211,473313,865375,930415,716
Loans / deposits89.7%85.7%71.6%69.1%68.4%
Cost of funds—6.4%6.3%6.1%5.8%
Source: AnalystBro model [10]; actuals AR 2025 p.80 [1]

Core NIM slips from 3.9% in FY2025 to 3.3% by FY2028F as loan yields fall faster than funding costs

Reported NII hides the shift, so we use core NIM: NII plus investment income over average loans and investments. It was 4.1% in FY2024 and 3.9% in FY2025 [s10 on s1 p.80]. The loan yield (interest income over average loans) was 11.0% in FY2025 and 9.85% annualised in 9M 2026, 9.67% in Q3 [s1 p.404; s3 p.8]: lending rates are easing with the system, and loans are shrinking. Interest on loans rose only 2.6% in H1 2026, to BDT 22.7bn, while interest on call money and placements more than halved [2 p.20]. Investment income was 8.2% of average investments in FY2025 and 9.79% annualised in 9M 2026 (10.15% in Q3) [3 p.8]; in the first half interest on government securities rose 74% to BDT 10.6bn [2 p.21].

Treasury. We take the investment yield from 9.8% in Q4 2026 to 8.9% and 8.4% in FY2027–28F as bonds bought in 2025 at 10.9–12.5% (the 10-year cut-off fell from 12.53% to 10.87% in 2025 [1 p.91]) are replaced at about 9%. Investment income still rises to BDT 33.3bn in FY2028F because the book grows to BDT 416bn. Fees. Fees, exchange and other income grew 10% in 9M 2026 to BDT 5.18bn [3 p.8]; in the first half trade commission slipped 3%, cards and service charges grew and exchange gains rose 23% [s2 p.21–22]. We grow Q4 2026 10% over Q4 2025 (BDT 1.90bn, the seasonally strongest quarter), then +12% and +12%. Costs. Operating expenses grew 10% in 9M 2026 after 17% in each of 2024 and 2025 [s3 p.8; s1 p.80]; staff costs rose 13% (BDT 6.59bn) and other costs 6% (3.84bn) [3 p.8]. We drive them separately: staff +12%, +12% and +11% with headcount and pay, other costs +6% to +9%, so cost-to-income moves from 40.4% to 42.4%. Tax was 39.9% of profit in 9M 2026; we use 40% (FY2025: 36%).

Exhibit 8A 1pp lower loan yield with unchanged funding cost cuts FY2027F EPS to BDT 3.51 from 5.27
Loan yield \ cost of funds (FY27–28F)-1.0pp-0.5pp+0.0pp+0.5pp+1.0pp
-1.0pp6.424.963.512.050.59
-0.5pp7.305.854.392.931.47
+0.0pp8.196.735.273.812.36
+0.5pp9.077.616.154.703.24
+1.0pp9.958.507.045.584.12
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [10] · FY2027F EPS in BDT
Exhibit 9Net interest income turned negative in Q3 2026 while investment income reached BDT 7.2bn
BDT mn1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q264Q26F
Net interest income2,3622,5552,4312,4851,243715-455-758
Investment income3,8243,6093,5483,5494,7206,5097,2497,403
Total operating income7,7097,4697,8647,9357,7148,7568,6878,737
Total provisions1,9168143381,2895101,1502,0131,619
Net profit after tax1,8052,0602,4032,7412,0022,2892,3492,284
Source: EBL interims [s4 p.9; s2 p.9; s3 p.8]; AR 2025 [1 p.404]; 4Q26F from the model [10] · 2Q = half year less 1Q; 3Q from the filing's July–September column; 4Q25 = full year less nine months

Gross NPL rose from 2.24% to 3.70% in nine months; we provide 1.1–1.4% of loans a year and take NPL to 4.3%

EBL's asset quality is good for Bangladesh. Gross NPL was 3.70% in 2021, 2.78% in 2022, 3.10% in 2023, 3.34% in 2024 and 2.24% at end-2025, with BDT 11.0bn of specific and 6.2bn of general provisions covering classified loans 1.6 times [1 p.81]. Cumulative written-off loans were BDT 26.7bn, of which 24.8% has been recovered [1 p.82]. The auditors made loan provisioning a key audit matter, noting that loans rescheduled under Bangladesh Bank's special policy support (BRPD Circular 07 of 16 September 2025) are classified as special mention and provided generally [1 p.391]; DSE also carried an auditor's emphasis-of-matter notice on the FY2025 accounts [5], whose wording we have not read.

2026 shows the turn. Classified loans rose to BDT 17.1bn (3.70%) at September 2026 from 10.7bn, with sub-standard loans up from BDT 1.1bn to 4.7bn and doubtful from 2.0bn to 3.9bn [3 p.15]. Special mention loans rose from BDT 11.9bn to 18.9bn (4.1% of loans), and interest suspense from BDT 5.0bn to 6.8bn [s3 p.15, p.17]. Provisions followed in the third quarter: BDT 2.01bn in Q3 alone, after 0.51bn in Q1 and 1.15bn in Q2, for BDT 3.67bn in nine months against 3.07bn a year earlier [3 p.8].

The base case keeps provisioning near the Q3 rate. Credit cost was 1.04% annualised in 9M 2026 and 1.73% in Q3; we use 1.4% for Q4 2026, 1.2% and 1.1% in FY2027–28F, above FY2025's 0.98% and the FY2022–25 average of 0.73%; we use 1.0% in the long run. NPL rises to 4.2% and 4.3%. Specific provisions exceeded classified loans at end-2025, so the haircut on existing net NPL is zero; future defaults are charged through provisions, not deducted again. In the bear case credit cost is 0.3pp higher (1.5% in FY2027F) and NPL 5.0%; at NPL of 8–10% provided at 3% credit cost, fair value would be BDT 14.1 (risks table).

Exhibit 10Classified loans rose 60% in nine months and took NPL to 3.70%
BDT mnDec-2023Dec-2024Dec-2025Sep-2026
Classified loans (NPL)10,94113,71810,67517,053
NPL ratio3.1%3.3%2.2%3.7%
of which sub-standard——1,0814,740
Special mention loans——11,91018,854
Interest suspense——5,0326,822
Specific + general loan provisions held16,15015,70617,19119,362
Coverage of NPL147.6%114.5%161.0%113.5%
Source: AR 2025 p.81–82 [1]; 9M 2026 p.15, p.17 [3] · Blank = not read for that date. Sep-2026 provisions = 18,778 + OBU 584 [3 p.17]

Paid-up capital of Tk1,644 crore bars cash dividends for FY2026; 22% more shares reach Tk2,000 crore

EBL's CRAR was 15.49% at end-2025 (Tier-1 11.86%) against 12.5% including the conservation buffer, a surplus of BDT 21.9bn over the 10% minimum [1 p.80]. Government bonds carry no risk weight, so RWA tracks loans (83–84% of loans). With the FY2026 cash dividend withheld our CRAR rises to 17.0% in FY2026F and 19.0% in FY2027F, including the new BDT 8bn subordinated bond [10]. The 2026 interims do not disclose capital ratios.

Capital actions in the last 24 months, as announced on DSE [5] (dividends confirmed in the annual report [1 p.82]): for FY2024, 17.5% cash and 17.5% stock (board 24 March 2025, AGM 21 May 2025); a BDT 8bn 4th subordinated bond in 2025, first approved as floating-rate (May 2025) and changed to zero-coupon (July 2025) [s5; s1 p.361]; a BDT 8bn 7-year floating-rate 5th subordinated bond approved by the board (24 September 2025) and BSEC (21 December 2025); and for FY2025, 25% cash and 3% stock (board 15 April 2026, AGM 11 June 2026, credited 20 July 2026). There was no rights issue and no change to authorised capital (Tk2,500 crore [2 p.18]).

The dividend rule. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular No. 06 of 23 May 2026 says a bank whose paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore may not pay any cash dividend; a bank above the line may pay at most 50% of its total declared dividend in cash. It applies to dividends for the year ending 31 December 2026 and later, and DOS Circular No. 01 of 13 March 2025 stays in force [6]. EBL's paid-up capital is Tk1,644 crore [2 p.18]: a gap of BDT 3.56bn, or 21.7% more shares. Its authorised capital already allows that, so no EGM is needed.

Our base case: one large stock dividend, then capped cash. We assume a 22% stock dividend and no cash for FY2026 (declared around April 2027), which takes paid-up capital to Tk2,005 crore. From FY2027 we assume a total payout of 40% of profit, half in cash, so cash is 20% of profit: about BDT 1.73bn for FY2027F, BDT 0.86 per post-bonus share. FY2025's cash dividend was 44% of profit [1 p.82]. A stock dividend moves no value: base value per post-bonus share would be BDT 23.9, the same total as 29.2 today. Paying no cash at all in FY2026–28F would lower base value only to 28.4, because retained profit earns close to the cost of equity; at the old 44% cash payout it would be 32.6.

Alternative: a rights issue at par. Raising the gap at Tk10 means about 356mn new shares (one for every 4.6 held), BDT 3.56bn. At our justified P/B of 0.89x, new equity is worth about what it costs, so base value per post-rights share would be BDT 25.6; the theoretical ex-rights price at today's 23.7 would be 21.3. EBL has announced neither route.

Exhibit 11A 22% stock dividend reaches Tk2,000 crore; base value per post-bonus share BDT 23.9
BDT mn unless statedFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Paid-up capital now (BDT mn)16,436.9——
Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn)20,000——
Gap to threshold (BDT mn)3,563.1——
Cumulative stock dividend needed21.7%——
Route (a): stock dividends - assumed 22% for FY2026 (no cash), then 20% of NPAT in cash + an equal stock portion (judgement)
Stock dividend rate22.0%0.0%0.0%
Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year20,05320,05320,053
Shares after (mn)2,005.32,005.32,005.3
EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)4.454.325.07
Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares)23.9523.9523.95
FY2027F cash dividend allowed if total payout is 40% of NPAT (cash <= 50% of total)—1,733—
FY2027F cash DPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)—0.86—
Memo: FY2025 cash dividend under the old rules (25% of face)3,990——
Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap in FY2027 (alternative; not in the base)
New shares (mn)356.3——
Proceeds (BDT mn)3,563——
Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT)25.60——
Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT)-0.23——
Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 23.7 (BDT)21.26——

From the Dividend rule tab of the model.

Source: Dividend rule sheet, AnalystBro model [10]; SPCD circular 06 [6]
Exhibit 12CRAR rises to 18.6% by FY2028F as profit is retained
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Risk-weighted assets343,105397,919390,839422,106464,317
Tier-1 capital40,34347,20352,05060,02267,784
Total regulatory capital51,84661,65766,55080,02286,284
CRAR15.1%15.5%17.0%19.0%18.6%
Capital above 12.5%8,95811,91717,69527,25928,245
Cash dividend declared2,3773,99001,7332,034
Source: AnalystBro model [10]; actuals AR 2025 p.80 [1]

We forecast net profit of BDT 8.9bn in FY2026F and 10.2bn in FY2028F, with bond income doing the work

FY2026F is the filed nine months (BDT 6.64bn) plus a fourth quarter of BDT 2.28bn from the September 2026 balance sheet: Q4 fees and costs grow from Q4 2025 (their seasonal peak), and provisions stay at 1.4% of loans, so Q4 is close to Q3 (2.35bn) and below Q4 2025 (2.74bn). FY2027F profit is BDT 8.7bn: investment income grows with the bond book but at a lower yield, net interest income is negative (-3.2bn) because funding exceeds loans by about 60%, provisions are 1.2% of loans and tax 40%. ROE is 16.6% in FY2026F and 14.6% in FY2028F, below the FY2025 level of 19.2%. Every line comes from its own driver in the Assumptions sheet; the balance sheet balances through investments, which absorb the deposits that loans do not use.

Exhibit 13Drivers: deposits, loans, loan and investment yields, cost of funds, credit cost and tax
DriverFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Shares outstanding (mn)1,643.7———————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)23.70———————
Scenario drivers
Deposit growth - bear—————2.0%10.0%10.0%
Deposit growth - base—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Deposit growth - bull—————4.0%14.0%12.0%
Deposit growth - active—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Loan growth - bear—————0.0%6.0%9.0%
Loan growth - base—————1.0%8.0%10.0%
Loan growth - bull—————2.0%10.0%11.0%
Loan growth - active—————1.0%8.0%10.0%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bear—————9.5%9.2%9.1%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - base—————9.6%9.4%9.2%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bull—————9.7%9.6%9.3%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - active—————9.6%9.4%9.2%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bear—————6.5%6.3%5.9%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - base—————6.4%6.1%5.8%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bull—————6.3%5.9%5.7%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - active—————6.4%6.1%5.8%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bear—————9.6%8.6%8.2%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - base—————9.8%8.9%8.4%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bull—————10.0%9.2%8.6%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - active—————9.8%8.9%8.4%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear—————7.0%9.0%10.0%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base—————10.0%12.0%12.0%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull—————13.0%15.0%14.0%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active—————10.0%12.0%12.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear—————1.7%1.5%1.3%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base—————1.4%1.2%1.1%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull—————1.1%0.9%0.9%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active—————1.4%1.2%1.1%
Effective tax rate - bear—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Effective tax rate - base—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Effective tax rate - bull—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Effective tax rate - active—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bear—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - base—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bull—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - active—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bear—————4.2%5.0%5.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - base—————3.9%4.2%4.3%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bull—————3.6%3.6%3.6%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - active—————3.9%4.2%4.3%
Single-path drivers
Cash, bank balances and other assets / deposits—————10.5%10.0%10.0%
Borrowings (incl. subordinated bonds) / deposits—————16.0%16.0%15.0%
Other liabilities / deposits—————6.8%6.8%6.8%
Fixed asset growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26)—————2.0%8.0%8.0%
RWA / loans—————84.0%84.0%84.0%
Tier-1 capital / book equity—————92.0%92.0%92.0%
Tier-2 capital (BDT mn)—————14,50020,00018,500
Net NPL / gross NPL (after specific provision)—————10.0%15.0%15.0%
30-Sep-2026 actuals (standalone) that anchor FY2026F; Q4 2025 seasonal bases
Loans and advances 30-Sep-2026460,678———————
Deposits 30-Sep-2026630,658———————
Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-202654,292———————
Investments 30-Sep-2026291,915———————
Fixed assets 30-Sep-20266,767———————
Borrowings incl. sub bonds 30-Sep-202699,480———————
Other liabilities 30-Sep-202642,443———————
9M 2026 interest income34,629———————
9M 2026 interest expense33,126———————
9M 2026 investment income18,478———————
9M 2026 fees, commission, exchange and other income5,177———————
9M 2026 staff costs incl. CEO6,594———————
9M 2026 other operating expenses3,841———————
9M 2026 total provisions3,672———————
9M 2026 profit before tax11,049———————
9M 2026 tax4,409———————
9M 2026 net profit6,640———————
Q4 2025 fees and other income1,901———————
Q4 2025 staff costs1,866———————
Q4 2025 other operating expenses1,152———————
Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E)
Cost of equity scenario adjustment0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Terminal growth g6.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%————
Scenario adjustment to normalised ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Long-run investment yield below the 10-yr T-bond1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%————
Adjustment to peer median P/B-0.1x0.0x0.1x0.0x————
NPL haircut h on net NPL75.0%50.0%25.0%50.0%————
Realistic cash payout from own history (for retention)30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%————
Terminal cash payout cap (share of NPAT)50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%————

From the Assumptions tab of the model.

Source: Assumptions sheet [10]
Exhibit 14Income statement FY2021A–FY2028F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Interest income———39,27048,71545,74145,48648,542
Interest expense (deposits, borrowings, sub bonds, repo)———28,68538,88244,99548,72251,406
Net interest income7,7616,6998,14810,5859,833745-3,236-2,864
Investment income6,0896,7057,68210,17114,53025,88130,53733,256
Fees, commission, exchange, brokerage and other income3,3084,3854,6985,8716,6147,2688,1409,117
Total operating income17,15817,78920,52826,62730,97733,89435,44239,509
Staff costs (salaries and allowances incl. MD)———6,5067,7188,6849,72610,796
Other operating expenses———4,1814,7865,0625,4675,959
Total operating expenses6,6907,7449,07710,68712,50413,74615,19316,755
Profit before provisions10,46810,04511,45115,94018,47320,14820,24922,754
Total provisions2,2601,9501,6622,9644,3575,2925,8075,804
Profit before tax8,2088,0959,78912,97614,11614,85614,44216,950
Tax3,5542,9883,6805,4715,1075,9325,7776,780
Net profit after tax (standalone)4,6545,1076,1097,5059,0098,9248,66510,170
EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares)2.833.113.724.575.485.435.276.19
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)0.730.820.921.452.430.001.051.24

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: Income statement sheet [10]
Exhibit 15Balance sheet FY2021A–FY2028F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Assets
Cash, bank balances and other assets45,13648,16552,89755,96766,30068,20672,75380,756
Investments (plug in forecast)66,65390,40794,023143,046211,473313,865375,930415,716
Loans and advances269,394308,916353,357410,718477,040465,285502,508552,758
Fixed assets7,6328,5015,9946,3196,7916,9027,4558,051
Total assets388,815455,989506,271616,050761,604854,258958,6451,057,281
Liabilities and equity
Deposits and other accounts268,019317,097366,104457,692556,454649,578727,527807,555
Borrowings incl. subordinated bonds63,18775,99671,66879,167113,440103,932116,404121,133
Other liabilities26,59227,85131,01536,12740,86044,17149,47254,914
Shareholders' equity31,01735,04537,48443,06450,85056,57665,24173,678
Total liabilities and equity388,815455,989506,271616,050761,604854,258958,6451,057,281
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)00000000
Asset quality and capital
Classified loans (gross NPL)9,9798,57910,94113,71810,67518,14621,10523,769
Specific provision held8,5628,5839,2968,83311,02316,33117,94020,203
General provision held (loans and off-balance sheet)5,5385,8696,8546,8736,1686,0166,4977,147
Net NPL (gross NPL - specific provision, floor 0)1,41701,6454,88501,8153,1663,565
Risk-weighted assets253,388279,016309,569343,105397,919390,839422,106464,317
Tier-1 capital26,13629,94233,78740,34347,20352,05060,02267,784
Tier-2 capital9,53810,81912,87411,50314,45414,50020,00018,500
Total regulatory capital35,67440,76146,66151,84661,65766,55080,02286,284
Cash dividend declared for the year1,1921,3411,5092,3773,99001,7332,034

From the Balance sheet tab of the model.

Source: Balance sheet sheet [10]

Fair value BDT 20–40, base 29: a 14.8% sustainable ROE justifies 0.89x adjusted book

Method. Residual income on adjusted book carries 80% of the weight and a justified P/E on normalised EPS 20%. We dropped the F01 peer P/B leg: peers' book values are available to us only from the screener on a consolidated basis, not from their own filings on EBL's standalone basis, and the P/B–ROE fit is weak (R² 0.06); peers stay as context below. The P/E is derived from the cost of equity, growth and payout (6.4x), not from EBL's own year-end multiples (4.3–7.9x in FY2021–25, which include the 2022–23 floor-price years [1 p.82]). Cost of equity is 15.8%: the 10-year T-bond cut-off of 9.268% (25-Oct-2026) [8] plus a Blume-adjusted beta of 0.87 (raw 0.80, two years of weekly returns against the DSEX, R² 0.32) times a 7.5% equity risk premium. Terminal growth is the lower of 7% (6% bear) and sustainable ROE times EBL's own retention: its cash payout averaged about 30% of profit in FY2021–25 [s1 p.80, p.82], so retention is 70% and 14.8% × 70% exceeds 7%; g is 7.0%. Growth needs retention of g/ROE_s, so the economic payout is 53%; SPCD C06 lets at most half of that go out as cash (50% of profit), and we treat the rest as excess capital that earns only the cost of equity, so it carries no residual income and adds no growth. Residual income, the justified P/B and the P/E all use this g and payout.

Adjusted book. Book equity at end-2025 of BDT 50.9bn [1 p.80], less the BDT 1.28bn write-down of EBL Securities to its own book (no NPL haircut: specific provisions exceeded NPL) gives BDT 49.6bn. Residual income charges the cost of equity on this adjusted book (book less the same BDT 1.28bn) every year and in the terminal term. Residual income in FY2026–28F adds BDT 1.0bn of present value and the terminal term -5.0bn (-11% of the value; negative because sustainable ROE is below the cost of equity). Rolled forward to October 2026 and net of the FY2025 cash dividend, residual income is BDT 28.9 a share. The justified P/E of 6.4x on normalised EPS of BDT 4.73 (on equity net of the EBL Securities write-down, the same basis as residual income) gives 30.5.

Normalised ROE. We start from FY2028F, move the investment yield to the T-bond less 1pp (8.3%; adjustment BDT -0.22bn after tax, with funding costs following 30% of the move) and hold the long-run credit cost at 1.0% (adjustment 0.16bn). That gives 14.8%. On the same basis (NPAT over average equity) EBL's ROE was 15.5%, 16.8%, 18.6% and 19.2% in FY2022–25, median 17.7%; the bank reported 15.51% for FY2021 [s10 on s1 p.80–81]. Our 14.8% is below that median for three reasons: the loan yield has fallen 1pp while funding cost has not, investment yields fall back towards the 10-year bond yield as T-bill rates ease, and credit cost is higher than in 2022–24. The implied P/B of our base is 0.88x September 2026 book, and the implied P/E 5.4x FY2026F and 5.5x FY2027F.

Against peers. On consolidated screener figures EBL trades at 0.73x book against a peer median of 0.77x, with an ROE of 18.1% against 20.9% [7]. Its 10.5% dividend yield is trailing (FY2025's cash) and will not recur for FY2026. Applied to EBL's standalone September 2026 book less the EBL Securities write-down (BDT 32.3 a share), the peer median would give 24.9; we show it as context only because the bases differ (EBL's own screener P/B of 0.73x implies a book of about BDT 32.6, against a filed standalone 33.03 at September 2026 [3 p.6]).

Exhibit 16Every 2pp of sustainable ROE moves fair value by about BDT 7
Ke \ ROE_s10.8%12.8%14.8%16.8%18.8%
Ke 13.8%20.630.039.047.756.2
Ke 14.8%17.725.833.540.948.2
Ke 15.8%15.522.529.235.742.1
Ke 16.8%13.719.925.831.637.2
Ke 17.8%12.317.823.128.233.2
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [10] · BDT per share; base cell boxed
Exhibit 17A 1pp higher cost of funds takes fair value to BDT 6.0; a 1pp higher credit cost to 21.3
Credit cost \ cost of funds (FY27–28F)-1.0pp-0.5pp+0.0pp+0.5pp+1.0pp
-1.0pp64.951.037.123.310.0
-0.5pp60.947.133.219.37.9
+0.0pp57.043.129.215.36.0
+0.5pp53.039.125.211.34.4
+1.0pp49.135.221.38.52.9
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [10] · BDT per share; funding-cost shocks persist fully into normalised ROE, credit-cost shocks by half

Scenarios. Bear and bull move the same drivers as the risks table, symmetrically, and fade by FY2028F: loan yield ∓0.1/0.2/0.1pp, investment yield ∓0.2/0.3/0.2pp, cost of funds ±0.1/0.2/0.1pp, credit cost ±0.3/0.3/0.2pp, NPL ±0.3/0.8/0.7pp, deposits and loans ∓1/2/1pp, fees ∓3/3/2pp, and the NPL haircut 75% / 25% (base 50%). The cost of equity is the same 15.8% in all three; the bear uses 6% terminal growth. FY2027F EPS is BDT 3.21 in the bear and 7.41 in the bull. Sustainable ROE is 12.6% / 14.8% / 16.8%, against EBL's FY2021–25 range of 15.5–19.2%: the bull sits inside it, the base just below, and the bear about 3pp below, because a negative lending spread on funding that exceeds loans persists in that case. A stacked stress (yields lower, credit cost 2.0%, NPL 8%, tax 45%, 100% haircut) gives 7.3; it is in the risks table, not the range.

Exhibit 18Bear 20 / base 29 / bull 40; probability-weighted 29.6
BearBaseBull
Residual income per share19.928.939.7
Justified P/E leg22.830.538.6
Sustainable ROE12.6%14.8%16.8%
FY2027F EPS3.215.277.41
Blended fair value20.429.239.5
Source: Valuation sheet, scenario recalculations [10]
Exhibit 19EBL trades on 0.73x consolidated book against a peer median of 0.77x
BankPriceMkt cap (BDT bn)P/E TTMP/BROEDiv. yield
EBL23.739.04.25x0.73x18.1%10.5%
BRACBANK67.5154.66.53x0.97x19.7%1.9%
CITYBANK29.852.13.36x0.79x27.2%4.4%
DUTCHBANGL46.647.33.63x0.76x22.9%5.1%
PUBALIBANK42.967.05.60x0.88x17.9%2.9%
PRIMEBANK29.435.83.71x0.71x20.3%8.1%
UTTARABANK21.325.83.77x0.73x21.4%1.9%
JAMUNABANK23.522.13.45x0.79x22.9%12.3%
BANKASIA17.023.74.13x0.60x14.6%4.6%
Source: AnalystBro screener, 29-Oct-2026 [7]; P/B and ROE consolidated · ROE is the latest quarter annualised; dividend yield is trailing. CITYBANK, DUTCHBANGL and BANKASIA come from a second same-date screener call by name
Exhibit 20Valuation sheet
BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Book equity 31-Dec-202550,850——
Less: h x net NPL held at 31-Dec-20250——
Less: write-down of EBL Securities to its own book (cost 2,217 - equity 937)1,280——
Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-202549,570——
Net profit (standalone)8,9248,66510,170
Book adjustments carried through (h x net NPL + EBLSL write-down)1,280——
Opening adjusted book49,57055,29663,961
Equity charge (Ke x opening book)7,8118,71410,079
Residual income1,113-4891
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.860.750.64
PV of residual income961-3659
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F984——
Book 31-Dec-202873,678——
Normalised (sustainable) ROE, F01 G1: FY2028F with the investment yield at T-bond - 1pp and through-cycle credit cost
Normalised investment yield (Rf - spread)8.3%——
Funding-cost pass-through of a lower market yield (beta_D)0.30——
Add: investment yield normalisation net of funding repricing, after tax (FY2028F)-219——
Add: half of any FY2028F credit-cost excess over the long-run 1.0%, after tax158——
Normalised net profit (FY2028F balance sheet)10,109——
Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg adjusted equity FY2027-28F)14.8%——
Sustainable ROE used (normalised + scenario adjustment)14.8%——
Terminal growth used = MIN(g, ROE_s x historical retention)7.0%——
Economic payout = 1 - g / ROE_s (cash + excess capital earning only Ke)52.8%——
Of which cash dividend at most (SPCD C06 cap)50.0%——
Of which excess capital retained (value-neutral)2.8%——
Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.9x——
PV of terminal excess return-4,961——
Residual-income value 31-Dec-202545,593——
Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid47,492——
Residual-income value per share (BDT)28.89——
Normalised EPS (normalised ROE x adjusted avg equity FY2025-26F / shares)4.73——
Justified P/E = payout x (1 + g) / (Ke - g)6.4x——
P/E leg per share (justified P/E x normalised EPS)30.50——
Peer median P/B (8 banks) + scenario adjustment0.8x——
Standalone adjusted book per share, Sep-26 (equity 54,292 - EBLSL write-down 1,280)32.25——
Peer-median leg per share (context only, weight 0)24.95——
Weight: residual income80.0%——
Weight: peer median P/B (dropped)0.0%——
Weight: justified P/E20.0%——
Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT)29.22——
Terminal share of RI value-10.9%——
Implied P/B on Sep-26 standalone book (33.03)0.9x——
Implied P/E FY2026F5.4x——
Implied P/E FY2027F5.5x——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 21.7)19.8622.8020.45
Base: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 24.9)28.8930.5029.22
Bull: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 28.2)39.7238.5739.49
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)29.59——
Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 23.7 (base Ke, g)13.2%——

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: AnalystBro model [10]

Funding cost is the largest risk: 1pp higher takes 79% off base fair value

Each risk below is a workbook recalculation with one input changed from the base case, and names the line it moves. Funding-cost and yield shocks carry fully into normalised ROE; half of a credit-cost shock carries into the long run; NPL shocks act through provisions. Funding cost dominates because EBL's deposits and borrowings (about BDT 730bn at September 2026 [3 p.6]) are 1.6 times its loans and equity is about 6% of assets: 1pp on that base is close to a year's profit before tax. Zero loan growth barely moves value, because new loans earn little more than bonds after credit cost.

Exhibit 21Eleven quantified risks: funding cost and bond yields dominate
Risk (line moved)EPS effectFair value vs baseLikelihoodSignal to watch
Stacked stress: yields lower, credit cost 2.0%, NPL 8%, tax 45%, deposits +8%, 100% haircut (all lines; not in the range)FY27F EPS 1.30-74.9%LowSeveral signals below at once
Cost of funds +1pp from FY2027F (interest expense line)FY27F EPS 2.36-79.4%MediumInterest expense per quarter vs 6.43% annualised in Q3 2026
Investment yield -2pp from FY2027F; long-run T-bond spread 3pp (investment income line)FY27F EPS 2.77-74.6%Low-mediumT-bill cut-offs; quarterly investment income vs BDT 7.2bn in Q3 2026
Loan yield -1pp from FY2027F (interest income line)FY27F EPS 3.51-56.7%MediumSystem lending rate (12.13%) and BB rate cuts
NPL 8% (FY27) and 10% (FY28) at 3% credit cost, 100% haircut (provision line, adjusted book)FY27F EPS 2.09-51.8%Low-mediumSub-standard and SMA loans per quarter
Credit cost 2.5% in FY2027–28F (provision line)FY27F EPS 2.98-38.2%Low-mediumFY2026 audited classification
Fees fall 10% a year in FY2027–28F (fee line; cards, trade)FY27F EPS 4.69-34.9%LowCard fees and trade commission in interims
Deposit growth 0% in Q4 2026 and 5% after (balance sheet, investment income)FY27F EPS 4.74-27.3%MediumDeposits in quarterly filings
Tax rate 45% (tax line; FY2024 was 42%)FY27F EPS 4.83-14.9%MediumEffective rate in FY2026 accounts
No cash dividend in FY2026–28F (equity, ROE)FY27F EPS 5.27-2.6%MediumFY2026 dividend declaration (around April 2027)
No loan growth to FY2028F (loan and investment income lines)FY27F EPS 5.331.1%MediumLoans in quarterly filings
Source: AnalystBro model, workbook recalculations [10]

Context risks that move no line in our model: a change in Bangladesh Bank's policy-support rescheduling regime (BRPD 07/2025) [1 p.391]; bank-resolution policy, which has moved deposits toward banks seen as safe; foreign-currency refinancing of the OBU's BDT 41.7bn of borrowings [1 p.491]; and any change to the dividend rule itself. Moody's rates EBL B2 [1 p.82].

  • Q4 2026 provisions: another quarter near Q3's BDT 2.0bn would confirm our base; more would point to the bear case.
  • FY2026 annual results (expected by April 2027): standalone EPS near BDT 5.4, the first 2026 CRAR, and the FY2026 dividend: a stock dividend of about 22% or a rights issue.
  • Quarterly cost of funds: above 6.2% annualised would mean deposit pricing is not easing.
  • Sub-standard and special mention loans: further rises point to the bear case.
  • Issue of the BDT 8bn 5th subordinated bond and any loan-growth recovery.

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

DriverFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Shares outstanding (mn)1,643.7———————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)23.70———————
Scenario drivers
Deposit growth - bear—————2.0%10.0%10.0%
Deposit growth - base—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Deposit growth - bull—————4.0%14.0%12.0%
Deposit growth - active—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Loan growth - bear—————0.0%6.0%9.0%
Loan growth - base—————1.0%8.0%10.0%
Loan growth - bull—————2.0%10.0%11.0%
Loan growth - active—————1.0%8.0%10.0%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bear—————9.5%9.2%9.1%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - base—————9.6%9.4%9.2%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bull—————9.7%9.6%9.3%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - active—————9.6%9.4%9.2%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bear—————6.5%6.3%5.9%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - base—————6.4%6.1%5.8%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bull—————6.3%5.9%5.7%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - active—————6.4%6.1%5.8%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bear—————9.6%8.6%8.2%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - base—————9.8%8.9%8.4%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bull—————10.0%9.2%8.6%
Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - active—————9.8%8.9%8.4%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear—————7.0%9.0%10.0%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base—————10.0%12.0%12.0%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull—————13.0%15.0%14.0%
Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active—————10.0%12.0%12.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active—————12.0%12.0%11.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear—————1.7%1.5%1.3%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base—————1.4%1.2%1.1%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull—————1.1%0.9%0.9%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active—————1.4%1.2%1.1%
Effective tax rate - bear—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Effective tax rate - base—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Effective tax rate - bull—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Effective tax rate - active—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bear—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - base—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bull—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - active—————0.0%20.0%20.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bear—————4.2%5.0%5.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - base—————3.9%4.2%4.3%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bull—————3.6%3.6%3.6%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - active—————3.9%4.2%4.3%
Single-path drivers
Cash, bank balances and other assets / deposits—————10.5%10.0%10.0%
Borrowings (incl. subordinated bonds) / deposits—————16.0%16.0%15.0%
Other liabilities / deposits—————6.8%6.8%6.8%
Fixed asset growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26)—————2.0%8.0%8.0%
RWA / loans—————84.0%84.0%84.0%
Tier-1 capital / book equity—————92.0%92.0%92.0%
Tier-2 capital (BDT mn)—————14,50020,00018,500
Net NPL / gross NPL (after specific provision)—————10.0%15.0%15.0%
30-Sep-2026 actuals (standalone) that anchor FY2026F; Q4 2025 seasonal bases
Loans and advances 30-Sep-2026460,678———————
Deposits 30-Sep-2026630,658———————
Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-202654,292———————
Investments 30-Sep-2026291,915———————
Fixed assets 30-Sep-20266,767———————
Borrowings incl. sub bonds 30-Sep-202699,480———————
Other liabilities 30-Sep-202642,443———————
9M 2026 interest income34,629———————
9M 2026 interest expense33,126———————
9M 2026 investment income18,478———————
9M 2026 fees, commission, exchange and other income5,177———————
9M 2026 staff costs incl. CEO6,594———————
9M 2026 other operating expenses3,841———————
9M 2026 total provisions3,672———————
9M 2026 profit before tax11,049———————
9M 2026 tax4,409———————
9M 2026 net profit6,640———————
Q4 2025 fees and other income1,901———————
Q4 2025 staff costs1,866———————
Q4 2025 other operating expenses1,152———————
Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E)
Cost of equity scenario adjustment0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Terminal growth g6.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%————
Scenario adjustment to normalised ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Long-run investment yield below the 10-yr T-bond1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%————
Adjustment to peer median P/B-0.1x0.0x0.1x0.0x————
NPL haircut h on net NPL75.0%50.0%25.0%50.0%————
Realistic cash payout from own history (for retention)30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%————
Terminal cash payout cap (share of NPAT)50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%————

Income statement

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Interest income———39,27048,71545,74145,48648,542
Interest expense (deposits, borrowings, sub bonds, repo)———28,68538,88244,99548,72251,406
Net interest income7,7616,6998,14810,5859,833745-3,236-2,864
Investment income6,0896,7057,68210,17114,53025,88130,53733,256
Fees, commission, exchange, brokerage and other income3,3084,3854,6985,8716,6147,2688,1409,117
Total operating income17,15817,78920,52826,62730,97733,89435,44239,509
Staff costs (salaries and allowances incl. MD)———6,5067,7188,6849,72610,796
Other operating expenses———4,1814,7865,0625,4675,959
Total operating expenses6,6907,7449,07710,68712,50413,74615,19316,755
Profit before provisions10,46810,04511,45115,94018,47320,14820,24922,754
Total provisions2,2601,9501,6622,9644,3575,2925,8075,804
Profit before tax8,2088,0959,78912,97614,11614,85614,44216,950
Tax3,5542,9883,6805,4715,1075,9325,7776,780
Net profit after tax (standalone)4,6545,1076,1097,5059,0098,9248,66510,170
EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares)2.833.113.724.575.485.435.276.19
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)0.730.820.921.452.430.001.051.24

Balance sheet

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Assets
Cash, bank balances and other assets45,13648,16552,89755,96766,30068,20672,75380,756
Investments (plug in forecast)66,65390,40794,023143,046211,473313,865375,930415,716
Loans and advances269,394308,916353,357410,718477,040465,285502,508552,758
Fixed assets7,6328,5015,9946,3196,7916,9027,4558,051
Total assets388,815455,989506,271616,050761,604854,258958,6451,057,281
Liabilities and equity
Deposits and other accounts268,019317,097366,104457,692556,454649,578727,527807,555
Borrowings incl. subordinated bonds63,18775,99671,66879,167113,440103,932116,404121,133
Other liabilities26,59227,85131,01536,12740,86044,17149,47254,914
Shareholders' equity31,01735,04537,48443,06450,85056,57665,24173,678
Total liabilities and equity388,815455,989506,271616,050761,604854,258958,6451,057,281
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)00000000
Asset quality and capital
Classified loans (gross NPL)9,9798,57910,94113,71810,67518,14621,10523,769
Specific provision held8,5628,5839,2968,83311,02316,33117,94020,203
General provision held (loans and off-balance sheet)5,5385,8696,8546,8736,1686,0166,4977,147
Net NPL (gross NPL - specific provision, floor 0)1,41701,6454,88501,8153,1663,565
Risk-weighted assets253,388279,016309,569343,105397,919390,839422,106464,317
Tier-1 capital26,13629,94233,78740,34347,20352,05060,02267,784
Tier-2 capital9,53810,81912,87411,50314,45414,50020,00018,500
Total regulatory capital35,67440,76146,66151,84661,65766,55080,02286,284
Cash dividend declared for the year1,1921,3411,5092,3773,99001,7332,034

Cash flow

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net profit after tax—5,1076,1097,5059,0098,9248,66510,170
Increase in deposits—49,07849,00791,58898,76293,12477,94980,028
Increase in borrowings—12,809-4,3287,49934,273-9,50812,4724,729
Increase in other liabilities—1,2593,1645,1124,7333,3115,3015,442
Increase in loans—-39,522-44,441-57,361-66,32211,755-37,223-50,251
Operating cash flow (balance-sheet basis)—28,7319,51154,34380,455107,60767,16450,118
Increase in investments—-23,754-3,616-49,023-68,427-102,392-62,065-39,786
Increase in fixed assets (net capex)—-8692,507-325-472-111-552-596
Investing cash flow—-24,623-1,109-49,348-68,899-102,503-62,617-40,382
Cash dividend paid—-1,192-1,341-1,509-2,377-3,9900-1,733
Other equity movements (OCI, reserves)—113-2,329-4161,15479200
Financing cash flow—-1,079-3,670-1,925-1,223-3,1980-1,733
Increase in cash, bank balances and other assets—-3,029-4,732-3,070-10,333-1,906-4,547-8,003
Check: sum of flows (should be 0)—0000000

Quarterly

BDT mn1Q25A2Q25A3Q25A4Q25A1Q26A2Q26A3Q26A4Q26F
Net profit after tax1,8052,0602,4032,7412,0022,2892,3492,284
Total operating income7,7097,4697,8647,9357,7148,7568,6878,737
Net interest income2,3622,5552,4312,4851,243715-455-758
Investment income3,8243,6093,5483,5494,7206,5097,2497,403
Total provisions1,9168143381,2895101,1502,0131,619
EPS (BDT, current shares)1.101.251.461.671.221.391.431.39
Check: quarters - FY net profit———0———0

Ratios

RatioFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Yield on average loans————11.0%9.7%9.4%9.2%
Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings)————6.4%6.3%6.1%5.8%
Lending spread (loan yield - cost of funds)————4.5%3.4%3.3%3.4%
Yield on average investments—8.5%8.3%8.6%8.2%9.9%8.9%8.4%
NII / avg loans + investments—1.8%1.9%2.1%1.6%0.1%-0.4%-0.3%
Core NIM ((NII + investment income) / avg loans + investments)—3.6%3.7%4.1%3.9%3.6%3.3%3.3%
Investment income / (NII + investment income)44.0%50.0%48.5%49.0%59.6%97.2%111.9%109.4%
Fees and other income / total operating income19.3%24.7%22.9%22.0%21.4%21.4%23.0%23.1%
Cost-to-income39.0%43.5%44.2%40.1%40.4%40.6%42.9%42.4%
Credit cost (provisions / avg loans)—0.7%0.5%0.8%1.0%1.1%1.2%1.1%
Gross NPL ratio3.7%2.8%3.1%3.3%2.2%3.9%4.2%4.3%
Coverage (specific + general provision) / NPL141.3%168.5%147.6%114.5%161.0%123.2%115.8%115.1%
Loans / deposits (simple)100.5%97.4%96.5%89.7%85.7%71.6%69.1%68.4%
Tier-1 ratio10.3%10.7%10.9%11.8%11.9%13.3%14.2%14.6%
CRAR14.1%14.6%15.1%15.1%15.5%17.0%19.0%18.6%
Capital above 12.5% CRAR (BDT mn)4,0005,8847,9658,95811,91717,69527,25928,245
ROA (NPAT / avg assets)—1.2%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.1%1.0%1.0%
ROE (NPAT / avg equity)—15.5%16.8%18.6%19.2%16.6%14.2%14.6%
Book value per share (BDT, current shares)18.8721.3222.8026.2030.9434.4239.6944.83
P/B at 23.7————0.8x0.7x0.6x0.5x
P/E at 23.7————4.3x4.4x4.5x3.8x
Cash dividend yield at 23.7————10.2%0.0%4.4%5.2%

Valuation

BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Book equity 31-Dec-202550,850——
Less: h x net NPL held at 31-Dec-20250——
Less: write-down of EBL Securities to its own book (cost 2,217 - equity 937)1,280——
Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-202549,570——
Net profit (standalone)8,9248,66510,170
Book adjustments carried through (h x net NPL + EBLSL write-down)1,280——
Opening adjusted book49,57055,29663,961
Equity charge (Ke x opening book)7,8118,71410,079
Residual income1,113-4891
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.860.750.64
PV of residual income961-3659
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F984——
Book 31-Dec-202873,678——
Normalised (sustainable) ROE, F01 G1: FY2028F with the investment yield at T-bond - 1pp and through-cycle credit cost
Normalised investment yield (Rf - spread)8.3%——
Funding-cost pass-through of a lower market yield (beta_D)0.30——
Add: investment yield normalisation net of funding repricing, after tax (FY2028F)-219——
Add: half of any FY2028F credit-cost excess over the long-run 1.0%, after tax158——
Normalised net profit (FY2028F balance sheet)10,109——
Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg adjusted equity FY2027-28F)14.8%——
Sustainable ROE used (normalised + scenario adjustment)14.8%——
Terminal growth used = MIN(g, ROE_s x historical retention)7.0%——
Economic payout = 1 - g / ROE_s (cash + excess capital earning only Ke)52.8%——
Of which cash dividend at most (SPCD C06 cap)50.0%——
Of which excess capital retained (value-neutral)2.8%——
Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.9x——
PV of terminal excess return-4,961——
Residual-income value 31-Dec-202545,593——
Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid47,492——
Residual-income value per share (BDT)28.89——
Normalised EPS (normalised ROE x adjusted avg equity FY2025-26F / shares)4.73——
Justified P/E = payout x (1 + g) / (Ke - g)6.4x——
P/E leg per share (justified P/E x normalised EPS)30.50——
Peer median P/B (8 banks) + scenario adjustment0.8x——
Standalone adjusted book per share, Sep-26 (equity 54,292 - EBLSL write-down 1,280)32.25——
Peer-median leg per share (context only, weight 0)24.95——
Weight: residual income80.0%——
Weight: peer median P/B (dropped)0.0%——
Weight: justified P/E20.0%——
Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT)29.22——
Terminal share of RI value-10.9%——
Implied P/B on Sep-26 standalone book (33.03)0.9x——
Implied P/E FY2026F5.4x——
Implied P/E FY2027F5.5x——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 21.7)19.8622.8020.45
Base: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 24.9)28.8930.5029.22
Bull: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 28.2)39.7238.5739.49
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)29.59——
Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 23.7 (base Ke, g)13.2%——

WACC

Cost of equity inputValue
Risk-free rate: 10-yr BD T-bond cut-off yield9.3%
Raw beta: 2-yr weekly vs DSEX (104 returns to 29-Oct-2026)0.80
Blume-adjusted beta0.87
Beta used (Blume-adjusted)0.87
Equity risk premium7.5%
Cost of equity, base (Rf + beta x ERP)15.8%
Scenario adjustment (active)0.0%
Cost of equity used (active scenario)15.8%
Terminal growth g (active)7.0%

Sensitivity

Grid (row input x column input)Col 1Col 2Col 3 (base)Col 4Col 5
Grid A: cost of equity (rows) x sustainable ROE (columns); fair value per share
Ke \\ ROE_s10.8%12.8%14.8%16.8%18.8%
Ke 13.76%20.630.039.047.756.2
Ke 14.76%17.725.833.540.948.2
Ke 15.76%15.522.529.235.742.1
Ke 16.76%13.719.925.831.637.2
Ke 17.76%12.317.823.128.233.2
Grid B: credit cost FY27-28 shock (rows) x cost of funds shock (columns); fair value per share
Credit cost \\ cost of funds-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
Credit cost -1.0pp64.951.037.123.310.0
Credit cost -0.5pp60.947.133.219.37.9
Credit cost +0.0pp57.043.129.215.36.0
Credit cost +0.5pp53.039.125.211.34.4
Credit cost +1.0pp49.135.221.38.52.9
Grid C: loan yield shock (rows, FY27-28) x cost of funds shock (columns); FY2027F EPS
Loan yield \\ cost of funds-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
Loan yield -1.0pp6.424.963.512.050.59
Loan yield -0.5pp7.305.854.392.931.47
Loan yield +0.0pp8.196.735.273.812.36
Loan yield +0.5pp9.077.616.154.703.24
Loan yield +1.0pp9.958.507.045.584.12

Peers

MetricEBLBRACBANKCITYBANKDUTCHBANGLPUBALIBANKPRIMEBANKUTTARABANKJAMUNABANKBANKASIAPeer median
Price (BDT)23.767.529.846.642.929.421.323.517.029.6
Market cap (BDT bn)39.0154.652.147.367.035.825.822.123.741.6
P/E TTM4.2x6.5x3.4x3.6x5.6x3.7x3.8x3.5x4.1x3.7x
P/B (screener, consolidated)0.7x1.0x0.8x0.8x0.9x0.7x0.7x0.8x0.6x0.8x
ROE (latest quarter, annualised)18.1%19.7%27.2%22.9%17.9%20.3%21.4%22.9%14.6%20.9%
Dividend yield10.5%1.9%4.4%5.1%2.9%8.1%1.9%12.3%4.6%4.5%
P/B-ROE regression slope (8 peers)0.70—————————
P/B-ROE regression intercept0.63—————————
R-squared0.06—————————
Fitted P/B at EBL's ROE0.8x—————————

Dividend rule

BDT mn unless statedFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Paid-up capital now (BDT mn)16,436.9——
Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn)20,000——
Gap to threshold (BDT mn)3,563.1——
Cumulative stock dividend needed21.7%——
Route (a): stock dividends - assumed 22% for FY2026 (no cash), then 20% of NPAT in cash + an equal stock portion (judgement)
Stock dividend rate22.0%0.0%0.0%
Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year20,05320,05320,053
Shares after (mn)2,005.32,005.32,005.3
EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)4.454.325.07
Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares)23.9523.9523.95
FY2027F cash dividend allowed if total payout is 40% of NPAT (cash <= 50% of total)—1,733—
FY2027F cash DPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)—0.86—
Memo: FY2025 cash dividend under the old rules (25% of face)3,990——
Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap in FY2027 (alternative; not in the base)
New shares (mn)356.3——
Proceeds (BDT mn)3,563——
Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT)25.60——
Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT)-0.23——
Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 23.7 (BDT)21.26——

Subsidiaries

BDT mn (FY2025)Net profitEquity / net assetsTotal assetsShare of bank NPAT
EBL Securities PLC (brokerage, 100%)-680.4936.67,892.1-0.1
EBL Investments Ltd (merchant bank, 100%)8.4—1,233.10.0
EBL Asset Management Ltd (100%)4.6198.0203.70.0
EBL Finance (HK) Ltd (trade finance, 100%; HKD 7.84mn x 15.66)122.8601.03,667.30.0
Memo: Offshore Banking Unit (division, inside standalone)250.2-911.453,366.90.0
Memo: Yangon (Myanmar) representative office0.00.00.0—
Check: consolidated - standalone NPAT FY2025-669.4———

FAQ

What is Eastern Bank's (EBL) fair value?
We estimate BDT 20–40 a share, base 29 and probability-weighted 30, against 23.7 on 29-Oct-2026. It blends residual income on adjusted book (80%) and a justified P/E on normalised earnings (20%).
Can EBL pay a cash dividend for 2026?
Not under the current rule: Bangladesh Bank's SPCD circular 06 of 23 May 2026 bars cash dividends for banks with paid-up capital below Tk2,000 crore from the FY2026 dividend onward, and EBL's is Tk1,644 crore. It needs about 22% more shares; its authorised capital of Tk2,500 crore allows a stock dividend or rights issue without an EGM.
Why did EBL's net interest income fall?
EBL borrowed and took deposits to buy government securities: the funding cost sits in interest expense while the bond income is in investment income. Loans also fell 3.4% in nine months and the loan yield dropped to about 9.85%, so NII fell to BDT 1.5bn in 9M 2026, negative in Q3, while investment income rose to 18.5bn.
How large is EBL's card business?
Gross card fees were BDT 1.75bn in H1 2026, up 46%, with merchant commission, late-payment fees and interchange leading; after card direct costs the net was BDT 421mn. EBL runs about 14,000 POS terminals and is Visa's national net settlement agent for 32 banks.
Are EBL's subsidiaries material?
No single subsidiary passes our 10% test. EBL Securities lost BDT 680mn in 2025 and we write it down to its own book; EBL Investments, EBL Asset Management and EBL Finance (HK) earn less than 1.5% of profit each, and the Myanmar office closed in 2024. The offshore banking unit holds 11% of loans but earns 2.8% of profit.

Sources

  1. Eastern Bank PLC Annual Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025), standalone and consolidated; page numbers are PDF pages (printed page = PDF page - 2) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. Eastern Bank PLC condensed consolidated and separate financial statements (un-audited), half year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. Eastern Bank PLC condensed consolidated and separate financial statements (un-audited), nine months to 30-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
  4. Eastern Bank PLC condensed financial statements (un-audited), quarter to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive for EBL, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, subordinated bonds, Q1-Q3 2026 results, management changes) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (EBL, DSEX) and bank screener, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. Bangladesh Bank call money and treasury auction pages, 29 Oct 2026 (10-year bond cut-off 9.2680% on 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  9. Bangladesh Bank, Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026 (Table 102) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  10. AnalystBro model (workbook on this page) · accessed 2026-10-31

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