Eastern Bank valuation report: fair value BDT 20.4–39.5 (Oct 2026)
Eastern Bank: fair value range BDT 20–40; the Tk2,000 crore rule stops cash dividends while paid-up capital is Tk1,644 crore
Fair value range BDT 20–40 (base 29); the price of 23.7 sits in the lower half. Its investment income now exceeds net interest income (gross loan interest is still larger); funding cost, asset quality and a dividend year without cash decide value.
For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Residual income on adjusted book 80% (Ke 15.8%, normalised ROE_s 14.8%, g 7.0%, excess capital above 7% growth earns Ke) · justified P/E 6.4x on normalised EPS 20%
- Residual income (80%)৳23
- Justified P/E on normalised EPS (20%)৳6
- Loans fell 3.4% and investments rose 38% in 9M 2026; net interest income was negative in Q3 →
- Cost of funds 6.3% in 9M 2026, below T-bills at 8.6–8.8% in October: the bond carry funds the profit →
- Gross NPL rose from 2.24% to 3.70% in nine months; Q3 provisions were BDT 2.0bn →
- Paid-up capital Tk1,644 crore bars cash dividends for FY2026; 22% more shares needed →
- Fair value BDT 20–40, base 29 = 0.89x adjusted book at a 14.8% sustainable ROE; price 23.7 →
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 10,585 | 9,833 | 745 | -3,236 | -2,864 |
| Investment income | 10,171 | 14,530 | 25,881 | 30,537 | 33,256 |
| Fees, exchange and other income | 5,871 | 6,614 | 7,268 | 8,140 | 9,117 |
| Total operating income | 26,627 | 30,977 | 33,894 | 35,442 | 39,509 |
| Profit before provisions | 15,940 | 18,473 | 20,148 | 20,249 | 22,754 |
| Total provisions | 2,964 | 4,357 | 5,292 | 5,807 | 5,804 |
| Net profit after tax (standalone) | 7,505 | 9,009 | 8,924 | 8,665 | 10,170 |
| EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares) | 4.57 | 5.48 | 5.43 | 5.27 | 6.19 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares) | 1.45 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 1.05 | 1.24 |
| Book value per share (BDT) | 26.20 | 30.94 | 34.42 | 39.69 | 44.83 |
| ROE (NPAT / avg equity) | 18.6% | 19.2% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 14.6% |
| Gross NPL ratio | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| CRAR | 15.1% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| P/E at 23.7 | — | 4.3x | 4.4x | 4.5x | 3.8x |
| P/B at 23.7 | — | 0.8x | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.5x |
Fair value BDT 20–40, base 29: the price of 23.7 assumes a 13% sustainable ROE against our 15%
We put Eastern Bank's (EBL) fair value at BDT 20–40, base 29 (probability-weighted 29.6), against a price of 23.7. Standalone net profit rose 20% to BDT 9.0bn in FY2025 [1 p.404] and 6% to BDT 6.64bn in the nine months to September 2026, an EPS of 4.04 against 3.81 [3 p.8]. The growth came from government securities, not lending. In nine months loans fell 3.4% to BDT 461bn while deposits rose 13.3% to BDT 631bn, and investments grew from BDT 211bn to 292bn [3 p.6]. Investment income rose 68% to BDT 18.5bn while net interest income fell from BDT 7.3bn to 1.5bn, and was negative in the third quarter (minus BDT 0.45bn) [3 p.8]. The bank says so itself: it 'borrowed heavily and invested proceeds into government securities', so net interest income fell in 2025 [1 p.82].
Our forecast has standalone EPS of BDT 5.43 in FY2026F, 5.27 in FY2027F and 6.19 in FY2028F. FY2026F is the filed nine months plus a fourth quarter of BDT 2.28bn, close to Q3's 2.35bn and below Q4 2025's 2.74bn because provisions run at Q3's higher rate [s3 p.8; s10]. FY2027F profit dips: the investment yield falls about 1pp as bonds bought at 2025–26 yields roll off, while the cost of funds, 6.43% annualised in Q3 2026 and still rising, falls more slowly [s3 p.8; s10].
Cash dividends stop for FY2026. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular No. 06 of 23 May 2026 bars any cash dividend while a bank's paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore [6]. EBL's is Tk1,644 crore after the 3% stock dividend for FY2025 [3 p.6]. FY2025's 25% cash dividend (BDT 2.50 a share, a 10.5% yield at today's price) cannot be repeated for FY2026; we assume a 22% stock dividend for FY2026 takes paid-up capital past the line in mid-2027, after which cash can be at most half the total dividend. Retaining the cash lowers ROE: we normalise ROE at 14.8% against an FY2022–25 median of 17.7% (NPAT over average equity, range 15.5%–19.2%) [s10 on s1 p.80].
Against a cost of equity of 15.8%, 14.8% justifies 0.89x adjusted book. The price implies a sustainable ROE of about 13.2%, below every year since FY2021 (15.5% reported for FY2021 [1 p.81]): the market is pricing a lasting fall in returns, near our bear case. The largest single risk is funding cost: 1pp more on deposits and borrowings from FY2027 takes base value to BDT 6.0, because deposits and borrowings are about 1.5 times loans. We rate uncertainty High. The stock rose 14% in two years against 3% for the DSEX [7]. The latest period in this report is the nine months to 30 September 2026.
Model update
- This model uses the nine months to 30 September 2026 and will be updated with the FY2026 audited accounts (expected by April 2027), which will also give the first 2026 capital ratios and the FY2026 dividend under the new rule.
Data
| Oct-24 | Nov-24 | Dec-24 | Jan-25 | Feb-25 | Mar-25 | Mar-25 (2) | Apr-25 | May-25 | Jun-25 | Jul-25 | Aug-25 | Sep-25 | Oct-25 | Nov-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Mar-26 (2) | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBL | 100.00 | 94.90 | 92.80 | 96.80 | 102.00 | 102.80 | 106.80 | 97.90 | 104.50 | 115.70 | 119.40 | 118.90 | 115.20 | 109.10 | 105.90 | 113.80 | 116.10 | 125.50 | 125.50 | 124.50 | 114.30 | 117.20 | 117.70 | 115.80 | 114.80 | 110.50 | 113.80 |
| DSEX | 100.00 | 101.90 | 97.10 | 98.80 | 98.50 | 99.00 | 99.00 | 93.20 | 89.60 | 96.40 | 102.90 | 106.80 | 103.00 | 97.40 | 95.60 | 92.90 | 97.00 | 104.00 | 101.80 | 100.00 | 99.80 | 105.00 | 110.40 | 111.50 | 107.70 | 105.20 | 103.00 |
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 10,585 | 9,833 | 745 | -3,236 | -2,864 |
| Investment income | 10,171 | 14,530 | 25,881 | 30,537 | 33,256 |
| Fees, exchange and other income | 5,871 | 6,614 | 7,268 | 8,140 | 9,117 |
| Total operating income | 26,627 | 30,977 | 33,894 | 35,442 | 39,509 |
| Profit before provisions | 15,940 | 18,473 | 20,148 | 20,249 | 22,754 |
| Total provisions | 2,964 | 4,357 | 5,292 | 5,807 | 5,804 |
| Net profit after tax (standalone) | 7,505 | 9,009 | 8,924 | 8,665 | 10,170 |
| EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares) | 4.57 | 5.48 | 5.43 | 5.27 | 6.19 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares) | 1.45 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 1.05 | 1.24 |
| Book value per share (BDT) | 26.20 | 30.94 | 34.42 | 39.69 | 44.83 |
| ROE (NPAT / avg equity) | 18.6% | 19.2% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 14.6% |
| Gross NPL ratio | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| CRAR | 15.1% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| P/E at 23.7 | — | 4.3x | 4.4x | 4.5x | 3.8x |
| P/B at 23.7 | — | 0.8x | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.5x |
Data
| Low | High | |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income (80%) | 19.9 | 39.7 |
| Justified P/E on normalised EPS (20%) | 22.8 | 38.6 |
| Blended fair value | 20.4 | 39.5 |
| 52-week range | 21.5 | 27.9 |
Bulls say
- The cost of funds (6.3% annualised in 9M 2026) is below 8.6–8.8% on T-bills: the bond book earns a positive carry with no risk weight, and CRAR rises with retained profit.
- The card and retail franchise is growing: gross card fees rose 46% in H1 2026, and retail and SME deposits are two thirds of the deposit base.
- Gross NPL of 3.70% at September 2026, covered 1.14 times by loan provisions, is among the better figures in a system with heavy classified loans.
Bears say
- Net interest income turned negative in Q3 2026 (minus BDT 0.45bn): loans are shrinking and the loan yield fell about 1pp in a year while funding cost rose.
- NPL rose from 2.24% to 3.70% and special mention loans by 58% in nine months; the subsidiary EBL Securities lost BDT 0.68bn in 2025.
- No cash dividend for FY2026 removes the 10% yield that supported the stock; the route to Tk2,000 crore is a large stock dividend or a rights issue.
What would change our view
- Up: loan growth resuming with the yield holding near 10%, or the cost of funds falling below 5.8% as T-bill yields ease.
- Down: NPL above 4% in the FY2026 audit, or quarterly net interest income turning negative.
EBL is a BDT 810bn corporate, trade and retail bank; retail and SME banking hold two thirds of its deposits
Eastern Bank PLC is a mid-sized Bangladeshi private commercial bank with 85 branches, 52 sub-branches, 119 agent outlets, 440 ATMs and deposit machines and 3,175 permanent staff at end-2025 [1 p.82]. Total assets were BDT 827bn at September 2026 [3 p.6]. It earns money in four ways. First, corporate and trade lending: loans of BDT 461bn at September 2026, mostly corporate term loans, overdrafts and trade bills, with BDT 443bn of import L/Cs and 375bn of exports handled in 2025 [s3 p.6; s1 p.81]. Large-loan exposure fell from 33% of the book in 2021 to 15% in 2025 [1 p.81]. Second, treasury: BDT 277bn of government securities at September 2026 [3 p.6]; EBL had 19.6% of the primary government securities market, 11% of the interbank spot FX market and 19% of swaps in 2025 [1 p.353]. Third, retail and SME banking, including one of the country's larger card businesses. Fourth, the offshore banking unit and four small subsidiaries.
Retail, SME and cards. Retail and SME banking held BDT 374bn of deposits (67% of the bank) and BDT 84bn of loans at end-2025, earning BDT 10.9bn of revenue, up 19% [1 p.347]; retail loan NPL was 1.87%. Cards are the most distinctive part: in H1 2026 gross card fees were BDT 1.75bn, up 46% from 1.20bn, led by merchant service commission (BDT 591mn against 277mn), late-payment and over-limit fees (301mn against 155mn) and interchange (223mn) [2 p.22]. Card direct costs (membership, acquiring and interchange charges, cash-back) rose faster, to BDT 1.33bn, so net card fees were BDT 421mn against 341mn (+24%) [2 p.22]. EBL runs 13,965 POS terminals, launched a Mastercard World Elite biometric metal credit card in 2025 and acts as Visa's national net settlement agent for 32 banks [s1 p.348, p.351]. Card income sits in fees, which we grow 10% in FY2026F and 12% in FY2027F; the card book itself is inside loans.
What is changing. The bank has new leadership: according to DSE announcements, Hassan O. Rashid became managing director on 19 April 2026 and Anis Ahmed was elected chairman on 30 July 2026 [5]. It is shrinking loans (down 3.4% in nine months) while deposits keep growing, so new money goes to bonds. It is also building Tier-2 capital: a BDT 8bn 4th subordinated bond was issued in 2025 [1 p.361], and a further BDT 8bn seven-year floating-rate bond (coupon: average six-month deposit rate plus 3%) received BSEC consent on 21 December 2025 [5]; subordinated bonds outstanding were BDT 11.4bn at September 2026 [3 p.17], so we assume the new bond in FY2027.
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 7,761 | 6,699 | 8,148 | 10,585 | 9,833 | 745 | -3,236 | -2,864 |
| Investment income | 6,089 | 6,705 | 7,682 | 10,171 | 14,530 | 25,881 | 30,537 | 33,256 |
| Fees, exchange and other income | 3,308 | 4,385 | 4,698 | 5,871 | 6,614 | 7,268 | 8,140 | 9,117 |
| Total operating income | 17,158 | 17,789 | 20,528 | 26,627 | 30,977 | 33,894 | 35,442 | 39,509 |
| Investment income / (NII + investment income) | 44.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | 49.0% | 59.6% | 97.2% | 111.9% | 109.4% |
| Fees and other income / total operating income | 19.3% | 24.7% | 22.9% | 22.0% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 23.0% | 23.1% |
No subsidiary passes the 10% test; EBL Securities lost BDT 0.68bn in 2025 and we write it down to its own book
We test each part of the group against our significance rule (10% of profit, assets or value, a listing, or a material risk) using its own FY2025 statements. EBL Securities PLC, the brokerage (4.88% DSE market share in 2025 [1 p.360]), lost BDT 680mn in 2025 after 818mn in 2024 [1 p.530]; its equity fell to BDT 937mn [1 p.513] against the bank's BDT 2,217mn investment at cost [2 p.17]. Its losses explain most of the gap between consolidated profit (BDT 8.34bn) and standalone (9.01bn) [s1 p.398, p.404]. The loss is 7.6% of bank profit and below the threshold, but it is a risk, so we deduct the BDT 1.28bn gap between cost and its book from adjusted book once and value the bank on standalone figures.
EBL Investments (merchant bank) earned BDT 8mn, EBL Asset Management 5mn [s1 p.361, p.362], and EBL Finance (HK), the Hong Kong trade-finance company, HKD 7.84mn (about BDT 123mn) on HKD 234mn of loans [1 p.362]. Each is below 1.5% of bank profit; they stay at cost. The Myanmar representative office in Yangon closed in 2024 [1 p.467]; a representative office in Guangzhou remains [1 p.357]. None of these moves a line in our model.
Offshore Banking Unit. The OBU is a division inside the standalone accounts, not a subsidiary. It lends in foreign currency against bills: BDT 52.4bn of loans at end-2025 (11% of bank loans, up from 27.0bn), funded mainly by BDT 41.7bn of foreign borrowings [1 p.491]. It earned BDT 250mn in 2025 (2.8% of bank profit) and still carries an accumulated loss of BDT 555mn [s1 p.491, p.493]. Because it is 11% of loans it is significant on the asset test, but its earnings are small and already inside our loan yield, cost of funds and borrowing lines; its risk is refinancing short dollar borrowings, which we test through the cost-of-funds shock. Sum of the parts does not apply: no part reaches 15% of value with economics different from the bank.
| FY2025, BDT mn | Net profit | Equity / net assets | Total assets | Share of bank NPAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBL Securities PLC (brokerage) | -680 | 937 | 7,892 | -7.6% |
| EBL Investments Ltd (merchant bank) | 8 | n/d | 1,233 | 0.1% |
| EBL Asset Management Ltd | 5 | 198 | 204 | 0.1% |
| EBL Finance (HK) Ltd | 123 | 601 | 3,667 | 1.4% |
| Offshore Banking Unit (division) | 250 | -911 | 53,367 | 2.8% |
EBL paid 6.3% for funds in 9M 2026 against 8.6–8.8% on T-bills in October; that gap is the bond carry
Bangladesh's banking system grew deposits 10.7% and loans only 4.3% in the year to June 2026, and the weighted-average deposit rate eased from 6.31% to 6.21% while the lending rate fell from 12.33% to 12.13% (Scheduled Banks Statistics, Table 102 [9]). Bangladesh Bank held the repo (policy) rate at 10.00% through 2025, with call money at 9.75–10.50% [s1 p.353–354]; by 29 October 2026 overnight call money averaged 9.24%, 91-day to 364-day T-bills cleared at 8.56–8.79% and the 10-year bond at 9.27% [8]. We did not verify the current policy rate.
EBL's cost of funds (interest expense over average deposits and borrowings) was 4.43% in 2023, 5.89% in 2024 and 6.44% in 2025 [1 p.82]. In 2026 it was 6.18% annualised in the first half and 6.43% in the third quarter, 6.31% for the nine months [s10; s3 p.6, p.8]; the bank's year-end deposit rate was 6.40% in 2025, a little above the system's 6.21% for the year to June 2025 [s1 p.82; s9]. Current and savings deposits were 27.6% of deposits at September 2026 and fixed deposits 58% (BDT 366bn, up from 303bn at December) [3 p.17], so the deposit cost is sticky. Borrowings fell to BDT 99bn as foreign borrowings were repaid (BDT 8.6bn against 27.8bn at December); they include BDT 33.4bn of export development fund refinance, 26.4bn of assured repo against a government special-purpose bond and 11.4bn of subordinated bonds [3 p.17].
What this means for the forecast. A bank paying 6.2% can buy T-bills at 8.6–8.8%: the carry is the reason EBL keeps adding bonds. As T-bill yields fall, the carry narrows unless deposit costs follow. We take the cost of funds from 6.4% (Q4 2026) to 6.1% and 5.8% in FY2027–28F, a slower fall than in market yields, and the loan yield from 9.6% to 9.2%. Deposits grow 12% and 11% in FY2027–28F (the bank grew 22–25% a year in 2024–25 [1 p.81]), loans 8% and 10% as credit demand recovers from a low base; loans to deposits fall to 68.4%.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 9M 2026 / Oct-2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBL cost of funds | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% |
| EBL year-end deposit rate | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | — |
| System weighted-average deposit rate (FY to June) | — | — | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| Policy (repo) rate | — | — | 10.0% | — |
| 364-day T-bill cut-off | — | — | — | 8.8% |
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deposits | 457,692 | 556,454 | 649,578 | 727,527 | 807,555 |
| Borrowings incl. subordinated bonds | 79,167 | 113,440 | 103,932 | 116,404 | 121,133 |
| Loans and advances | 410,718 | 477,040 | 465,285 | 502,508 | 552,758 |
| Investments | 143,046 | 211,473 | 313,865 | 375,930 | 415,716 |
| Loans / deposits | 89.7% | 85.7% | 71.6% | 69.1% | 68.4% |
| Cost of funds | — | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
Core NIM slips from 3.9% in FY2025 to 3.3% by FY2028F as loan yields fall faster than funding costs
Reported NII hides the shift, so we use core NIM: NII plus investment income over average loans and investments. It was 4.1% in FY2024 and 3.9% in FY2025 [s10 on s1 p.80]. The loan yield (interest income over average loans) was 11.0% in FY2025 and 9.85% annualised in 9M 2026, 9.67% in Q3 [s1 p.404; s3 p.8]: lending rates are easing with the system, and loans are shrinking. Interest on loans rose only 2.6% in H1 2026, to BDT 22.7bn, while interest on call money and placements more than halved [2 p.20]. Investment income was 8.2% of average investments in FY2025 and 9.79% annualised in 9M 2026 (10.15% in Q3) [3 p.8]; in the first half interest on government securities rose 74% to BDT 10.6bn [2 p.21].
Treasury. We take the investment yield from 9.8% in Q4 2026 to 8.9% and 8.4% in FY2027–28F as bonds bought in 2025 at 10.9–12.5% (the 10-year cut-off fell from 12.53% to 10.87% in 2025 [1 p.91]) are replaced at about 9%. Investment income still rises to BDT 33.3bn in FY2028F because the book grows to BDT 416bn. Fees. Fees, exchange and other income grew 10% in 9M 2026 to BDT 5.18bn [3 p.8]; in the first half trade commission slipped 3%, cards and service charges grew and exchange gains rose 23% [s2 p.21–22]. We grow Q4 2026 10% over Q4 2025 (BDT 1.90bn, the seasonally strongest quarter), then +12% and +12%. Costs. Operating expenses grew 10% in 9M 2026 after 17% in each of 2024 and 2025 [s3 p.8; s1 p.80]; staff costs rose 13% (BDT 6.59bn) and other costs 6% (3.84bn) [3 p.8]. We drive them separately: staff +12%, +12% and +11% with headcount and pay, other costs +6% to +9%, so cost-to-income moves from 40.4% to 42.4%. Tax was 39.9% of profit in 9M 2026; we use 40% (FY2025: 36%).
| Loan yield \ cost of funds (FY27–28F) | -1.0pp | -0.5pp | +0.0pp | +0.5pp | +1.0pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0pp | 6.42 | 4.96 | 3.51 | 2.05 | 0.59 |
| -0.5pp | 7.30 | 5.85 | 4.39 | 2.93 | 1.47 |
| +0.0pp | 8.19 | 6.73 | 5.27 | 3.81 | 2.36 |
| +0.5pp | 9.07 | 7.61 | 6.15 | 4.70 | 3.24 |
| +1.0pp | 9.95 | 8.50 | 7.04 | 5.58 | 4.12 |
| BDT mn | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 2,362 | 2,555 | 2,431 | 2,485 | 1,243 | 715 | -455 | -758 |
| Investment income | 3,824 | 3,609 | 3,548 | 3,549 | 4,720 | 6,509 | 7,249 | 7,403 |
| Total operating income | 7,709 | 7,469 | 7,864 | 7,935 | 7,714 | 8,756 | 8,687 | 8,737 |
| Total provisions | 1,916 | 814 | 338 | 1,289 | 510 | 1,150 | 2,013 | 1,619 |
| Net profit after tax | 1,805 | 2,060 | 2,403 | 2,741 | 2,002 | 2,289 | 2,349 | 2,284 |
Gross NPL rose from 2.24% to 3.70% in nine months; we provide 1.1–1.4% of loans a year and take NPL to 4.3%
EBL's asset quality is good for Bangladesh. Gross NPL was 3.70% in 2021, 2.78% in 2022, 3.10% in 2023, 3.34% in 2024 and 2.24% at end-2025, with BDT 11.0bn of specific and 6.2bn of general provisions covering classified loans 1.6 times [1 p.81]. Cumulative written-off loans were BDT 26.7bn, of which 24.8% has been recovered [1 p.82]. The auditors made loan provisioning a key audit matter, noting that loans rescheduled under Bangladesh Bank's special policy support (BRPD Circular 07 of 16 September 2025) are classified as special mention and provided generally [1 p.391]; DSE also carried an auditor's emphasis-of-matter notice on the FY2025 accounts [5], whose wording we have not read.
2026 shows the turn. Classified loans rose to BDT 17.1bn (3.70%) at September 2026 from 10.7bn, with sub-standard loans up from BDT 1.1bn to 4.7bn and doubtful from 2.0bn to 3.9bn [3 p.15]. Special mention loans rose from BDT 11.9bn to 18.9bn (4.1% of loans), and interest suspense from BDT 5.0bn to 6.8bn [s3 p.15, p.17]. Provisions followed in the third quarter: BDT 2.01bn in Q3 alone, after 0.51bn in Q1 and 1.15bn in Q2, for BDT 3.67bn in nine months against 3.07bn a year earlier [3 p.8].
The base case keeps provisioning near the Q3 rate. Credit cost was 1.04% annualised in 9M 2026 and 1.73% in Q3; we use 1.4% for Q4 2026, 1.2% and 1.1% in FY2027–28F, above FY2025's 0.98% and the FY2022–25 average of 0.73%; we use 1.0% in the long run. NPL rises to 4.2% and 4.3%. Specific provisions exceeded classified loans at end-2025, so the haircut on existing net NPL is zero; future defaults are charged through provisions, not deducted again. In the bear case credit cost is 0.3pp higher (1.5% in FY2027F) and NPL 5.0%; at NPL of 8–10% provided at 3% credit cost, fair value would be BDT 14.1 (risks table).
| BDT mn | Dec-2023 | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | Sep-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classified loans (NPL) | 10,941 | 13,718 | 10,675 | 17,053 |
| NPL ratio | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% |
| of which sub-standard | — | — | 1,081 | 4,740 |
| Special mention loans | — | — | 11,910 | 18,854 |
| Interest suspense | — | — | 5,032 | 6,822 |
| Specific + general loan provisions held | 16,150 | 15,706 | 17,191 | 19,362 |
| Coverage of NPL | 147.6% | 114.5% | 161.0% | 113.5% |
Paid-up capital of Tk1,644 crore bars cash dividends for FY2026; 22% more shares reach Tk2,000 crore
EBL's CRAR was 15.49% at end-2025 (Tier-1 11.86%) against 12.5% including the conservation buffer, a surplus of BDT 21.9bn over the 10% minimum [1 p.80]. Government bonds carry no risk weight, so RWA tracks loans (83–84% of loans). With the FY2026 cash dividend withheld our CRAR rises to 17.0% in FY2026F and 19.0% in FY2027F, including the new BDT 8bn subordinated bond [10]. The 2026 interims do not disclose capital ratios.
Capital actions in the last 24 months, as announced on DSE [5] (dividends confirmed in the annual report [1 p.82]): for FY2024, 17.5% cash and 17.5% stock (board 24 March 2025, AGM 21 May 2025); a BDT 8bn 4th subordinated bond in 2025, first approved as floating-rate (May 2025) and changed to zero-coupon (July 2025) [s5; s1 p.361]; a BDT 8bn 7-year floating-rate 5th subordinated bond approved by the board (24 September 2025) and BSEC (21 December 2025); and for FY2025, 25% cash and 3% stock (board 15 April 2026, AGM 11 June 2026, credited 20 July 2026). There was no rights issue and no change to authorised capital (Tk2,500 crore [2 p.18]).
The dividend rule. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular No. 06 of 23 May 2026 says a bank whose paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore may not pay any cash dividend; a bank above the line may pay at most 50% of its total declared dividend in cash. It applies to dividends for the year ending 31 December 2026 and later, and DOS Circular No. 01 of 13 March 2025 stays in force [6]. EBL's paid-up capital is Tk1,644 crore [2 p.18]: a gap of BDT 3.56bn, or 21.7% more shares. Its authorised capital already allows that, so no EGM is needed.
Our base case: one large stock dividend, then capped cash. We assume a 22% stock dividend and no cash for FY2026 (declared around April 2027), which takes paid-up capital to Tk2,005 crore. From FY2027 we assume a total payout of 40% of profit, half in cash, so cash is 20% of profit: about BDT 1.73bn for FY2027F, BDT 0.86 per post-bonus share. FY2025's cash dividend was 44% of profit [1 p.82]. A stock dividend moves no value: base value per post-bonus share would be BDT 23.9, the same total as 29.2 today. Paying no cash at all in FY2026–28F would lower base value only to 28.4, because retained profit earns close to the cost of equity; at the old 44% cash payout it would be 32.6.
Alternative: a rights issue at par. Raising the gap at Tk10 means about 356mn new shares (one for every 4.6 held), BDT 3.56bn. At our justified P/B of 0.89x, new equity is worth about what it costs, so base value per post-rights share would be BDT 25.6; the theoretical ex-rights price at today's 23.7 would be 21.3. EBL has announced neither route.
| BDT mn unless stated | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid-up capital now (BDT mn) | 16,436.9 | — | — |
| Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn) | 20,000 | — | — |
| Gap to threshold (BDT mn) | 3,563.1 | — | — |
| Cumulative stock dividend needed | 21.7% | — | — |
| Route (a): stock dividends - assumed 22% for FY2026 (no cash), then 20% of NPAT in cash + an equal stock portion (judgement) | |||
| Stock dividend rate | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year | 20,053 | 20,053 | 20,053 |
| Shares after (mn) | 2,005.3 | 2,005.3 | 2,005.3 |
| EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT) | 4.45 | 4.32 | 5.07 |
| Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares) | 23.95 | 23.95 | 23.95 |
| FY2027F cash dividend allowed if total payout is 40% of NPAT (cash <= 50% of total) | — | 1,733 | — |
| FY2027F cash DPS on post-bonus shares (BDT) | — | 0.86 | — |
| Memo: FY2025 cash dividend under the old rules (25% of face) | 3,990 | — | — |
| Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap in FY2027 (alternative; not in the base) | |||
| New shares (mn) | 356.3 | — | — |
| Proceeds (BDT mn) | 3,563 | — | — |
| Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT) | 25.60 | — | — |
| Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT) | -0.23 | — | — |
| Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 23.7 (BDT) | 21.26 | — | — |
From the Dividend rule tab of the model.
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-weighted assets | 343,105 | 397,919 | 390,839 | 422,106 | 464,317 |
| Tier-1 capital | 40,343 | 47,203 | 52,050 | 60,022 | 67,784 |
| Total regulatory capital | 51,846 | 61,657 | 66,550 | 80,022 | 86,284 |
| CRAR | 15.1% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| Capital above 12.5% | 8,958 | 11,917 | 17,695 | 27,259 | 28,245 |
| Cash dividend declared | 2,377 | 3,990 | 0 | 1,733 | 2,034 |
We forecast net profit of BDT 8.9bn in FY2026F and 10.2bn in FY2028F, with bond income doing the work
FY2026F is the filed nine months (BDT 6.64bn) plus a fourth quarter of BDT 2.28bn from the September 2026 balance sheet: Q4 fees and costs grow from Q4 2025 (their seasonal peak), and provisions stay at 1.4% of loans, so Q4 is close to Q3 (2.35bn) and below Q4 2025 (2.74bn). FY2027F profit is BDT 8.7bn: investment income grows with the bond book but at a lower yield, net interest income is negative (-3.2bn) because funding exceeds loans by about 60%, provisions are 1.2% of loans and tax 40%. ROE is 16.6% in FY2026F and 14.6% in FY2028F, below the FY2025 level of 19.2%. Every line comes from its own driver in the Assumptions sheet; the balance sheet balances through investments, which absorb the deposits that loans do not use.
| Driver | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull) | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shares outstanding (mn) | 1,643.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 23.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario drivers | ||||||||
| Deposit growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Deposit growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Deposit growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 4.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Deposit growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Loan growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| Loan growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Loan growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% |
| Loan growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Effective tax rate - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Effective tax rate - base | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Effective tax rate - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Effective tax rate - active | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Single-path drivers | ||||||||
| Cash, bank balances and other assets / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Borrowings (incl. subordinated bonds) / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 16.0% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| Other liabilities / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Fixed asset growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26) | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| RWA / loans | — | — | — | — | — | 84.0% | 84.0% | 84.0% |
| Tier-1 capital / book equity | — | — | — | — | — | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% |
| Tier-2 capital (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 14,500 | 20,000 | 18,500 |
| Net NPL / gross NPL (after specific provision) | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| 30-Sep-2026 actuals (standalone) that anchor FY2026F; Q4 2025 seasonal bases | ||||||||
| Loans and advances 30-Sep-2026 | 460,678 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deposits 30-Sep-2026 | 630,658 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-2026 | 54,292 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Investments 30-Sep-2026 | 291,915 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fixed assets 30-Sep-2026 | 6,767 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Borrowings incl. sub bonds 30-Sep-2026 | 99,480 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Other liabilities 30-Sep-2026 | 42,443 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 interest income | 34,629 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 interest expense | 33,126 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 investment income | 18,478 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 fees, commission, exchange and other income | 5,177 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 staff costs incl. CEO | 6,594 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 other operating expenses | 3,841 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 total provisions | 3,672 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 profit before tax | 11,049 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 tax | 4,409 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 net profit | 6,640 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 2025 fees and other income | 1,901 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 2025 staff costs | 1,866 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 2025 other operating expenses | 1,152 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E) | ||||||||
| Cost of equity scenario adjustment | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal growth g | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario adjustment to normalised ROE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Long-run investment yield below the 10-yr T-bond | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Adjustment to peer median P/B | -0.1x | 0.0x | 0.1x | 0.0x | — | — | — | — |
| NPL haircut h on net NPL | 75.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Realistic cash payout from own history (for retention) | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal cash payout cap (share of NPAT) | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | — | — | — | — |
From the Assumptions tab of the model.
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | — | — | — | 39,270 | 48,715 | 45,741 | 45,486 | 48,542 |
| Interest expense (deposits, borrowings, sub bonds, repo) | — | — | — | 28,685 | 38,882 | 44,995 | 48,722 | 51,406 |
| Net interest income | 7,761 | 6,699 | 8,148 | 10,585 | 9,833 | 745 | -3,236 | -2,864 |
| Investment income | 6,089 | 6,705 | 7,682 | 10,171 | 14,530 | 25,881 | 30,537 | 33,256 |
| Fees, commission, exchange, brokerage and other income | 3,308 | 4,385 | 4,698 | 5,871 | 6,614 | 7,268 | 8,140 | 9,117 |
| Total operating income | 17,158 | 17,789 | 20,528 | 26,627 | 30,977 | 33,894 | 35,442 | 39,509 |
| Staff costs (salaries and allowances incl. MD) | — | — | — | 6,506 | 7,718 | 8,684 | 9,726 | 10,796 |
| Other operating expenses | — | — | — | 4,181 | 4,786 | 5,062 | 5,467 | 5,959 |
| Total operating expenses | 6,690 | 7,744 | 9,077 | 10,687 | 12,504 | 13,746 | 15,193 | 16,755 |
| Profit before provisions | 10,468 | 10,045 | 11,451 | 15,940 | 18,473 | 20,148 | 20,249 | 22,754 |
| Total provisions | 2,260 | 1,950 | 1,662 | 2,964 | 4,357 | 5,292 | 5,807 | 5,804 |
| Profit before tax | 8,208 | 8,095 | 9,789 | 12,976 | 14,116 | 14,856 | 14,442 | 16,950 |
| Tax | 3,554 | 2,988 | 3,680 | 5,471 | 5,107 | 5,932 | 5,777 | 6,780 |
| Net profit after tax (standalone) | 4,654 | 5,107 | 6,109 | 7,505 | 9,009 | 8,924 | 8,665 | 10,170 |
| EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares) | 2.83 | 3.11 | 3.72 | 4.57 | 5.48 | 5.43 | 5.27 | 6.19 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares) | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 1.45 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 1.05 | 1.24 |
From the Income statement tab of the model.
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||||||||
| Cash, bank balances and other assets | 45,136 | 48,165 | 52,897 | 55,967 | 66,300 | 68,206 | 72,753 | 80,756 |
| Investments (plug in forecast) | 66,653 | 90,407 | 94,023 | 143,046 | 211,473 | 313,865 | 375,930 | 415,716 |
| Loans and advances | 269,394 | 308,916 | 353,357 | 410,718 | 477,040 | 465,285 | 502,508 | 552,758 |
| Fixed assets | 7,632 | 8,501 | 5,994 | 6,319 | 6,791 | 6,902 | 7,455 | 8,051 |
| Total assets | 388,815 | 455,989 | 506,271 | 616,050 | 761,604 | 854,258 | 958,645 | 1,057,281 |
| Liabilities and equity | ||||||||
| Deposits and other accounts | 268,019 | 317,097 | 366,104 | 457,692 | 556,454 | 649,578 | 727,527 | 807,555 |
| Borrowings incl. subordinated bonds | 63,187 | 75,996 | 71,668 | 79,167 | 113,440 | 103,932 | 116,404 | 121,133 |
| Other liabilities | 26,592 | 27,851 | 31,015 | 36,127 | 40,860 | 44,171 | 49,472 | 54,914 |
| Shareholders' equity | 31,017 | 35,045 | 37,484 | 43,064 | 50,850 | 56,576 | 65,241 | 73,678 |
| Total liabilities and equity | 388,815 | 455,989 | 506,271 | 616,050 | 761,604 | 854,258 | 958,645 | 1,057,281 |
| Check: assets - (liabilities + equity) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asset quality and capital | ||||||||
| Classified loans (gross NPL) | 9,979 | 8,579 | 10,941 | 13,718 | 10,675 | 18,146 | 21,105 | 23,769 |
| Specific provision held | 8,562 | 8,583 | 9,296 | 8,833 | 11,023 | 16,331 | 17,940 | 20,203 |
| General provision held (loans and off-balance sheet) | 5,538 | 5,869 | 6,854 | 6,873 | 6,168 | 6,016 | 6,497 | 7,147 |
| Net NPL (gross NPL - specific provision, floor 0) | 1,417 | 0 | 1,645 | 4,885 | 0 | 1,815 | 3,166 | 3,565 |
| Risk-weighted assets | 253,388 | 279,016 | 309,569 | 343,105 | 397,919 | 390,839 | 422,106 | 464,317 |
| Tier-1 capital | 26,136 | 29,942 | 33,787 | 40,343 | 47,203 | 52,050 | 60,022 | 67,784 |
| Tier-2 capital | 9,538 | 10,819 | 12,874 | 11,503 | 14,454 | 14,500 | 20,000 | 18,500 |
| Total regulatory capital | 35,674 | 40,761 | 46,661 | 51,846 | 61,657 | 66,550 | 80,022 | 86,284 |
| Cash dividend declared for the year | 1,192 | 1,341 | 1,509 | 2,377 | 3,990 | 0 | 1,733 | 2,034 |
From the Balance sheet tab of the model.
Fair value BDT 20–40, base 29: a 14.8% sustainable ROE justifies 0.89x adjusted book
Method. Residual income on adjusted book carries 80% of the weight and a justified P/E on normalised EPS 20%. We dropped the F01 peer P/B leg: peers' book values are available to us only from the screener on a consolidated basis, not from their own filings on EBL's standalone basis, and the P/B–ROE fit is weak (R² 0.06); peers stay as context below. The P/E is derived from the cost of equity, growth and payout (6.4x), not from EBL's own year-end multiples (4.3–7.9x in FY2021–25, which include the 2022–23 floor-price years [1 p.82]). Cost of equity is 15.8%: the 10-year T-bond cut-off of 9.268% (25-Oct-2026) [8] plus a Blume-adjusted beta of 0.87 (raw 0.80, two years of weekly returns against the DSEX, R² 0.32) times a 7.5% equity risk premium. Terminal growth is the lower of 7% (6% bear) and sustainable ROE times EBL's own retention: its cash payout averaged about 30% of profit in FY2021–25 [s1 p.80, p.82], so retention is 70% and 14.8% × 70% exceeds 7%; g is 7.0%. Growth needs retention of g/ROE_s, so the economic payout is 53%; SPCD C06 lets at most half of that go out as cash (50% of profit), and we treat the rest as excess capital that earns only the cost of equity, so it carries no residual income and adds no growth. Residual income, the justified P/B and the P/E all use this g and payout.
Adjusted book. Book equity at end-2025 of BDT 50.9bn [1 p.80], less the BDT 1.28bn write-down of EBL Securities to its own book (no NPL haircut: specific provisions exceeded NPL) gives BDT 49.6bn. Residual income charges the cost of equity on this adjusted book (book less the same BDT 1.28bn) every year and in the terminal term. Residual income in FY2026–28F adds BDT 1.0bn of present value and the terminal term -5.0bn (-11% of the value; negative because sustainable ROE is below the cost of equity). Rolled forward to October 2026 and net of the FY2025 cash dividend, residual income is BDT 28.9 a share. The justified P/E of 6.4x on normalised EPS of BDT 4.73 (on equity net of the EBL Securities write-down, the same basis as residual income) gives 30.5.
Normalised ROE. We start from FY2028F, move the investment yield to the T-bond less 1pp (8.3%; adjustment BDT -0.22bn after tax, with funding costs following 30% of the move) and hold the long-run credit cost at 1.0% (adjustment 0.16bn). That gives 14.8%. On the same basis (NPAT over average equity) EBL's ROE was 15.5%, 16.8%, 18.6% and 19.2% in FY2022–25, median 17.7%; the bank reported 15.51% for FY2021 [s10 on s1 p.80–81]. Our 14.8% is below that median for three reasons: the loan yield has fallen 1pp while funding cost has not, investment yields fall back towards the 10-year bond yield as T-bill rates ease, and credit cost is higher than in 2022–24. The implied P/B of our base is 0.88x September 2026 book, and the implied P/E 5.4x FY2026F and 5.5x FY2027F.
Against peers. On consolidated screener figures EBL trades at 0.73x book against a peer median of 0.77x, with an ROE of 18.1% against 20.9% [7]. Its 10.5% dividend yield is trailing (FY2025's cash) and will not recur for FY2026. Applied to EBL's standalone September 2026 book less the EBL Securities write-down (BDT 32.3 a share), the peer median would give 24.9; we show it as context only because the bases differ (EBL's own screener P/B of 0.73x implies a book of about BDT 32.6, against a filed standalone 33.03 at September 2026 [3 p.6]).
| Ke \ ROE_s | 10.8% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke 13.8% | 20.6 | 30.0 | 39.0 | 47.7 | 56.2 |
| Ke 14.8% | 17.7 | 25.8 | 33.5 | 40.9 | 48.2 |
| Ke 15.8% | 15.5 | 22.5 | 29.2 | 35.7 | 42.1 |
| Ke 16.8% | 13.7 | 19.9 | 25.8 | 31.6 | 37.2 |
| Ke 17.8% | 12.3 | 17.8 | 23.1 | 28.2 | 33.2 |
| Credit cost \ cost of funds (FY27–28F) | -1.0pp | -0.5pp | +0.0pp | +0.5pp | +1.0pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0pp | 64.9 | 51.0 | 37.1 | 23.3 | 10.0 |
| -0.5pp | 60.9 | 47.1 | 33.2 | 19.3 | 7.9 |
| +0.0pp | 57.0 | 43.1 | 29.2 | 15.3 | 6.0 |
| +0.5pp | 53.0 | 39.1 | 25.2 | 11.3 | 4.4 |
| +1.0pp | 49.1 | 35.2 | 21.3 | 8.5 | 2.9 |
Scenarios. Bear and bull move the same drivers as the risks table, symmetrically, and fade by FY2028F: loan yield ∓0.1/0.2/0.1pp, investment yield ∓0.2/0.3/0.2pp, cost of funds ±0.1/0.2/0.1pp, credit cost ±0.3/0.3/0.2pp, NPL ±0.3/0.8/0.7pp, deposits and loans ∓1/2/1pp, fees ∓3/3/2pp, and the NPL haircut 75% / 25% (base 50%). The cost of equity is the same 15.8% in all three; the bear uses 6% terminal growth. FY2027F EPS is BDT 3.21 in the bear and 7.41 in the bull. Sustainable ROE is 12.6% / 14.8% / 16.8%, against EBL's FY2021–25 range of 15.5–19.2%: the bull sits inside it, the base just below, and the bear about 3pp below, because a negative lending spread on funding that exceeds loans persists in that case. A stacked stress (yields lower, credit cost 2.0%, NPL 8%, tax 45%, 100% haircut) gives 7.3; it is in the risks table, not the range.
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residual income per share | 19.9 | 28.9 | 39.7 |
| Justified P/E leg | 22.8 | 30.5 | 38.6 |
| Sustainable ROE | 12.6% | 14.8% | 16.8% |
| FY2027F EPS | 3.21 | 5.27 | 7.41 |
| Blended fair value | 20.4 | 29.2 | 39.5 |
| Bank | Price | Mkt cap (BDT bn) | P/E TTM | P/B | ROE | Div. yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBL | 23.7 | 39.0 | 4.25x | 0.73x | 18.1% | 10.5% |
| BRACBANK | 67.5 | 154.6 | 6.53x | 0.97x | 19.7% | 1.9% |
| CITYBANK | 29.8 | 52.1 | 3.36x | 0.79x | 27.2% | 4.4% |
| DUTCHBANGL | 46.6 | 47.3 | 3.63x | 0.76x | 22.9% | 5.1% |
| PUBALIBANK | 42.9 | 67.0 | 5.60x | 0.88x | 17.9% | 2.9% |
| PRIMEBANK | 29.4 | 35.8 | 3.71x | 0.71x | 20.3% | 8.1% |
| UTTARABANK | 21.3 | 25.8 | 3.77x | 0.73x | 21.4% | 1.9% |
| JAMUNABANK | 23.5 | 22.1 | 3.45x | 0.79x | 22.9% | 12.3% |
| BANKASIA | 17.0 | 23.7 | 4.13x | 0.60x | 14.6% | 4.6% |
| BDT mn unless stated | Value / FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book equity 31-Dec-2025 | 50,850 | — | — |
| Less: h x net NPL held at 31-Dec-2025 | 0 | — | — |
| Less: write-down of EBL Securities to its own book (cost 2,217 - equity 937) | 1,280 | — | — |
| Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-2025 | 49,570 | — | — |
| Net profit (standalone) | 8,924 | 8,665 | 10,170 |
| Book adjustments carried through (h x net NPL + EBLSL write-down) | 1,280 | — | — |
| Opening adjusted book | 49,570 | 55,296 | 63,961 |
| Equity charge (Ke x opening book) | 7,811 | 8,714 | 10,079 |
| Residual income | 1,113 | -48 | 91 |
| Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025) | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| PV of residual income | 961 | -36 | 59 |
| Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F | 984 | — | — |
| Book 31-Dec-2028 | 73,678 | — | — |
| Normalised (sustainable) ROE, F01 G1: FY2028F with the investment yield at T-bond - 1pp and through-cycle credit cost | |||
| Normalised investment yield (Rf - spread) | 8.3% | — | — |
| Funding-cost pass-through of a lower market yield (beta_D) | 0.30 | — | — |
| Add: investment yield normalisation net of funding repricing, after tax (FY2028F) | -219 | — | — |
| Add: half of any FY2028F credit-cost excess over the long-run 1.0%, after tax | 158 | — | — |
| Normalised net profit (FY2028F balance sheet) | 10,109 | — | — |
| Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg adjusted equity FY2027-28F) | 14.8% | — | — |
| Sustainable ROE used (normalised + scenario adjustment) | 14.8% | — | — |
| Terminal growth used = MIN(g, ROE_s x historical retention) | 7.0% | — | — |
| Economic payout = 1 - g / ROE_s (cash + excess capital earning only Ke) | 52.8% | — | — |
| Of which cash dividend at most (SPCD C06 cap) | 50.0% | — | — |
| Of which excess capital retained (value-neutral) | 2.8% | — | — |
| Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g) | 0.9x | — | — |
| PV of terminal excess return | -4,961 | — | — |
| Residual-income value 31-Dec-2025 | 45,593 | — | — |
| Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid | 47,492 | — | — |
| Residual-income value per share (BDT) | 28.89 | — | — |
| Normalised EPS (normalised ROE x adjusted avg equity FY2025-26F / shares) | 4.73 | — | — |
| Justified P/E = payout x (1 + g) / (Ke - g) | 6.4x | — | — |
| P/E leg per share (justified P/E x normalised EPS) | 30.50 | — | — |
| Peer median P/B (8 banks) + scenario adjustment | 0.8x | — | — |
| Standalone adjusted book per share, Sep-26 (equity 54,292 - EBLSL write-down 1,280) | 32.25 | — | — |
| Peer-median leg per share (context only, weight 0) | 24.95 | — | — |
| Weight: residual income | 80.0% | — | — |
| Weight: peer median P/B (dropped) | 0.0% | — | — |
| Weight: justified P/E | 20.0% | — | — |
| Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT) | 29.22 | — | — |
| Terminal share of RI value | -10.9% | — | — |
| Implied P/B on Sep-26 standalone book (33.03) | 0.9x | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2026F | 5.4x | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2027F | 5.5x | — | — |
| Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values) | |||
| Bear: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 21.7) | 19.86 | 22.80 | 20.45 |
| Base: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 24.9) | 28.89 | 30.50 | 29.22 |
| Bull: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 28.2) | 39.72 | 38.57 | 39.49 |
| Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25) | 29.59 | — | — |
| Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 23.7 (base Ke, g) | 13.2% | — | — |
From the Valuation tab of the model.
Funding cost is the largest risk: 1pp higher takes 79% off base fair value
Each risk below is a workbook recalculation with one input changed from the base case, and names the line it moves. Funding-cost and yield shocks carry fully into normalised ROE; half of a credit-cost shock carries into the long run; NPL shocks act through provisions. Funding cost dominates because EBL's deposits and borrowings (about BDT 730bn at September 2026 [3 p.6]) are 1.6 times its loans and equity is about 6% of assets: 1pp on that base is close to a year's profit before tax. Zero loan growth barely moves value, because new loans earn little more than bonds after credit cost.
| Risk (line moved) | EPS effect | Fair value vs base | Likelihood | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacked stress: yields lower, credit cost 2.0%, NPL 8%, tax 45%, deposits +8%, 100% haircut (all lines; not in the range) | FY27F EPS 1.30 | -74.9% | Low | Several signals below at once |
| Cost of funds +1pp from FY2027F (interest expense line) | FY27F EPS 2.36 | -79.4% | Medium | Interest expense per quarter vs 6.43% annualised in Q3 2026 |
| Investment yield -2pp from FY2027F; long-run T-bond spread 3pp (investment income line) | FY27F EPS 2.77 | -74.6% | Low-medium | T-bill cut-offs; quarterly investment income vs BDT 7.2bn in Q3 2026 |
| Loan yield -1pp from FY2027F (interest income line) | FY27F EPS 3.51 | -56.7% | Medium | System lending rate (12.13%) and BB rate cuts |
| NPL 8% (FY27) and 10% (FY28) at 3% credit cost, 100% haircut (provision line, adjusted book) | FY27F EPS 2.09 | -51.8% | Low-medium | Sub-standard and SMA loans per quarter |
| Credit cost 2.5% in FY2027–28F (provision line) | FY27F EPS 2.98 | -38.2% | Low-medium | FY2026 audited classification |
| Fees fall 10% a year in FY2027–28F (fee line; cards, trade) | FY27F EPS 4.69 | -34.9% | Low | Card fees and trade commission in interims |
| Deposit growth 0% in Q4 2026 and 5% after (balance sheet, investment income) | FY27F EPS 4.74 | -27.3% | Medium | Deposits in quarterly filings |
| Tax rate 45% (tax line; FY2024 was 42%) | FY27F EPS 4.83 | -14.9% | Medium | Effective rate in FY2026 accounts |
| No cash dividend in FY2026–28F (equity, ROE) | FY27F EPS 5.27 | -2.6% | Medium | FY2026 dividend declaration (around April 2027) |
| No loan growth to FY2028F (loan and investment income lines) | FY27F EPS 5.33 | 1.1% | Medium | Loans in quarterly filings |
Context risks that move no line in our model: a change in Bangladesh Bank's policy-support rescheduling regime (BRPD 07/2025) [1 p.391]; bank-resolution policy, which has moved deposits toward banks seen as safe; foreign-currency refinancing of the OBU's BDT 41.7bn of borrowings [1 p.491]; and any change to the dividend rule itself. Moody's rates EBL B2 [1 p.82].
- Q4 2026 provisions: another quarter near Q3's BDT 2.0bn would confirm our base; more would point to the bear case.
- FY2026 annual results (expected by April 2027): standalone EPS near BDT 5.4, the first 2026 CRAR, and the FY2026 dividend: a stock dividend of about 22% or a rights issue.
- Quarterly cost of funds: above 6.2% annualised would mean deposit pricing is not easing.
- Sub-standard and special mention loans: further rises point to the bear case.
- Issue of the BDT 8bn 5th subordinated bond and any loan-growth recovery.
The model
Assumptions
| Driver | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull) | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shares outstanding (mn) | 1,643.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 23.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario drivers | ||||||||
| Deposit growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Deposit growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Deposit growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 4.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Deposit growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Loan growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| Loan growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Loan growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% |
| Loan growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% |
| Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% |
| Yield on average investments (investment income / avg investments) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
| Fees, exchange and other income growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Staff cost growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Other operating expense growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Q4 2025) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Effective tax rate - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Effective tax rate - base | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Effective tax rate - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Effective tax rate - active | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Gross NPL ratio (year end) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Single-path drivers | ||||||||
| Cash, bank balances and other assets / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Borrowings (incl. subordinated bonds) / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 16.0% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| Other liabilities / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Fixed asset growth (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26) | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| RWA / loans | — | — | — | — | — | 84.0% | 84.0% | 84.0% |
| Tier-1 capital / book equity | — | — | — | — | — | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% |
| Tier-2 capital (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 14,500 | 20,000 | 18,500 |
| Net NPL / gross NPL (after specific provision) | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| 30-Sep-2026 actuals (standalone) that anchor FY2026F; Q4 2025 seasonal bases | ||||||||
| Loans and advances 30-Sep-2026 | 460,678 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deposits 30-Sep-2026 | 630,658 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-2026 | 54,292 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Investments 30-Sep-2026 | 291,915 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fixed assets 30-Sep-2026 | 6,767 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Borrowings incl. sub bonds 30-Sep-2026 | 99,480 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Other liabilities 30-Sep-2026 | 42,443 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 interest income | 34,629 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 interest expense | 33,126 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 investment income | 18,478 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 fees, commission, exchange and other income | 5,177 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 staff costs incl. CEO | 6,594 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 other operating expenses | 3,841 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 total provisions | 3,672 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 profit before tax | 11,049 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 tax | 4,409 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 net profit | 6,640 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 2025 fees and other income | 1,901 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 2025 staff costs | 1,866 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 2025 other operating expenses | 1,152 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E) | ||||||||
| Cost of equity scenario adjustment | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal growth g | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario adjustment to normalised ROE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Long-run investment yield below the 10-yr T-bond | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Adjustment to peer median P/B | -0.1x | 0.0x | 0.1x | 0.0x | — | — | — | — |
| NPL haircut h on net NPL | 75.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Realistic cash payout from own history (for retention) | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal cash payout cap (share of NPAT) | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | — | — | — | — |
Income statement
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | — | — | — | 39,270 | 48,715 | 45,741 | 45,486 | 48,542 |
| Interest expense (deposits, borrowings, sub bonds, repo) | — | — | — | 28,685 | 38,882 | 44,995 | 48,722 | 51,406 |
| Net interest income | 7,761 | 6,699 | 8,148 | 10,585 | 9,833 | 745 | -3,236 | -2,864 |
| Investment income | 6,089 | 6,705 | 7,682 | 10,171 | 14,530 | 25,881 | 30,537 | 33,256 |
| Fees, commission, exchange, brokerage and other income | 3,308 | 4,385 | 4,698 | 5,871 | 6,614 | 7,268 | 8,140 | 9,117 |
| Total operating income | 17,158 | 17,789 | 20,528 | 26,627 | 30,977 | 33,894 | 35,442 | 39,509 |
| Staff costs (salaries and allowances incl. MD) | — | — | — | 6,506 | 7,718 | 8,684 | 9,726 | 10,796 |
| Other operating expenses | — | — | — | 4,181 | 4,786 | 5,062 | 5,467 | 5,959 |
| Total operating expenses | 6,690 | 7,744 | 9,077 | 10,687 | 12,504 | 13,746 | 15,193 | 16,755 |
| Profit before provisions | 10,468 | 10,045 | 11,451 | 15,940 | 18,473 | 20,148 | 20,249 | 22,754 |
| Total provisions | 2,260 | 1,950 | 1,662 | 2,964 | 4,357 | 5,292 | 5,807 | 5,804 |
| Profit before tax | 8,208 | 8,095 | 9,789 | 12,976 | 14,116 | 14,856 | 14,442 | 16,950 |
| Tax | 3,554 | 2,988 | 3,680 | 5,471 | 5,107 | 5,932 | 5,777 | 6,780 |
| Net profit after tax (standalone) | 4,654 | 5,107 | 6,109 | 7,505 | 9,009 | 8,924 | 8,665 | 10,170 |
| EPS (BDT, on 1,643.7mn shares) | 2.83 | 3.11 | 3.72 | 4.57 | 5.48 | 5.43 | 5.27 | 6.19 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares) | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 1.45 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 1.05 | 1.24 |
Balance sheet
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||||||||
| Cash, bank balances and other assets | 45,136 | 48,165 | 52,897 | 55,967 | 66,300 | 68,206 | 72,753 | 80,756 |
| Investments (plug in forecast) | 66,653 | 90,407 | 94,023 | 143,046 | 211,473 | 313,865 | 375,930 | 415,716 |
| Loans and advances | 269,394 | 308,916 | 353,357 | 410,718 | 477,040 | 465,285 | 502,508 | 552,758 |
| Fixed assets | 7,632 | 8,501 | 5,994 | 6,319 | 6,791 | 6,902 | 7,455 | 8,051 |
| Total assets | 388,815 | 455,989 | 506,271 | 616,050 | 761,604 | 854,258 | 958,645 | 1,057,281 |
| Liabilities and equity | ||||||||
| Deposits and other accounts | 268,019 | 317,097 | 366,104 | 457,692 | 556,454 | 649,578 | 727,527 | 807,555 |
| Borrowings incl. subordinated bonds | 63,187 | 75,996 | 71,668 | 79,167 | 113,440 | 103,932 | 116,404 | 121,133 |
| Other liabilities | 26,592 | 27,851 | 31,015 | 36,127 | 40,860 | 44,171 | 49,472 | 54,914 |
| Shareholders' equity | 31,017 | 35,045 | 37,484 | 43,064 | 50,850 | 56,576 | 65,241 | 73,678 |
| Total liabilities and equity | 388,815 | 455,989 | 506,271 | 616,050 | 761,604 | 854,258 | 958,645 | 1,057,281 |
| Check: assets - (liabilities + equity) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asset quality and capital | ||||||||
| Classified loans (gross NPL) | 9,979 | 8,579 | 10,941 | 13,718 | 10,675 | 18,146 | 21,105 | 23,769 |
| Specific provision held | 8,562 | 8,583 | 9,296 | 8,833 | 11,023 | 16,331 | 17,940 | 20,203 |
| General provision held (loans and off-balance sheet) | 5,538 | 5,869 | 6,854 | 6,873 | 6,168 | 6,016 | 6,497 | 7,147 |
| Net NPL (gross NPL - specific provision, floor 0) | 1,417 | 0 | 1,645 | 4,885 | 0 | 1,815 | 3,166 | 3,565 |
| Risk-weighted assets | 253,388 | 279,016 | 309,569 | 343,105 | 397,919 | 390,839 | 422,106 | 464,317 |
| Tier-1 capital | 26,136 | 29,942 | 33,787 | 40,343 | 47,203 | 52,050 | 60,022 | 67,784 |
| Tier-2 capital | 9,538 | 10,819 | 12,874 | 11,503 | 14,454 | 14,500 | 20,000 | 18,500 |
| Total regulatory capital | 35,674 | 40,761 | 46,661 | 51,846 | 61,657 | 66,550 | 80,022 | 86,284 |
| Cash dividend declared for the year | 1,192 | 1,341 | 1,509 | 2,377 | 3,990 | 0 | 1,733 | 2,034 |
Cash flow
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit after tax | — | 5,107 | 6,109 | 7,505 | 9,009 | 8,924 | 8,665 | 10,170 |
| Increase in deposits | — | 49,078 | 49,007 | 91,588 | 98,762 | 93,124 | 77,949 | 80,028 |
| Increase in borrowings | — | 12,809 | -4,328 | 7,499 | 34,273 | -9,508 | 12,472 | 4,729 |
| Increase in other liabilities | — | 1,259 | 3,164 | 5,112 | 4,733 | 3,311 | 5,301 | 5,442 |
| Increase in loans | — | -39,522 | -44,441 | -57,361 | -66,322 | 11,755 | -37,223 | -50,251 |
| Operating cash flow (balance-sheet basis) | — | 28,731 | 9,511 | 54,343 | 80,455 | 107,607 | 67,164 | 50,118 |
| Increase in investments | — | -23,754 | -3,616 | -49,023 | -68,427 | -102,392 | -62,065 | -39,786 |
| Increase in fixed assets (net capex) | — | -869 | 2,507 | -325 | -472 | -111 | -552 | -596 |
| Investing cash flow | — | -24,623 | -1,109 | -49,348 | -68,899 | -102,503 | -62,617 | -40,382 |
| Cash dividend paid | — | -1,192 | -1,341 | -1,509 | -2,377 | -3,990 | 0 | -1,733 |
| Other equity movements (OCI, reserves) | — | 113 | -2,329 | -416 | 1,154 | 792 | 0 | 0 |
| Financing cash flow | — | -1,079 | -3,670 | -1,925 | -1,223 | -3,198 | 0 | -1,733 |
| Increase in cash, bank balances and other assets | — | -3,029 | -4,732 | -3,070 | -10,333 | -1,906 | -4,547 | -8,003 |
| Check: sum of flows (should be 0) | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Quarterly
| BDT mn | 1Q25A | 2Q25A | 3Q25A | 4Q25A | 1Q26A | 2Q26A | 3Q26A | 4Q26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit after tax | 1,805 | 2,060 | 2,403 | 2,741 | 2,002 | 2,289 | 2,349 | 2,284 |
| Total operating income | 7,709 | 7,469 | 7,864 | 7,935 | 7,714 | 8,756 | 8,687 | 8,737 |
| Net interest income | 2,362 | 2,555 | 2,431 | 2,485 | 1,243 | 715 | -455 | -758 |
| Investment income | 3,824 | 3,609 | 3,548 | 3,549 | 4,720 | 6,509 | 7,249 | 7,403 |
| Total provisions | 1,916 | 814 | 338 | 1,289 | 510 | 1,150 | 2,013 | 1,619 |
| EPS (BDT, current shares) | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.46 | 1.67 | 1.22 | 1.39 | 1.43 | 1.39 |
| Check: quarters - FY net profit | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
Ratios
| Ratio | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield on average loans | — | — | — | — | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Cost of funds (interest expense / avg deposits + borrowings) | — | — | — | — | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Lending spread (loan yield - cost of funds) | — | — | — | — | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Yield on average investments | — | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
| NII / avg loans + investments | — | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Core NIM ((NII + investment income) / avg loans + investments) | — | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Investment income / (NII + investment income) | 44.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | 49.0% | 59.6% | 97.2% | 111.9% | 109.4% |
| Fees and other income / total operating income | 19.3% | 24.7% | 22.9% | 22.0% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 23.0% | 23.1% |
| Cost-to-income | 39.0% | 43.5% | 44.2% | 40.1% | 40.4% | 40.6% | 42.9% | 42.4% |
| Credit cost (provisions / avg loans) | — | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Gross NPL ratio | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Coverage (specific + general provision) / NPL | 141.3% | 168.5% | 147.6% | 114.5% | 161.0% | 123.2% | 115.8% | 115.1% |
| Loans / deposits (simple) | 100.5% | 97.4% | 96.5% | 89.7% | 85.7% | 71.6% | 69.1% | 68.4% |
| Tier-1 ratio | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 14.6% |
| CRAR | 14.1% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| Capital above 12.5% CRAR (BDT mn) | 4,000 | 5,884 | 7,965 | 8,958 | 11,917 | 17,695 | 27,259 | 28,245 |
| ROA (NPAT / avg assets) | — | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| ROE (NPAT / avg equity) | — | 15.5% | 16.8% | 18.6% | 19.2% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 14.6% |
| Book value per share (BDT, current shares) | 18.87 | 21.32 | 22.80 | 26.20 | 30.94 | 34.42 | 39.69 | 44.83 |
| P/B at 23.7 | — | — | — | — | 0.8x | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.5x |
| P/E at 23.7 | — | — | — | — | 4.3x | 4.4x | 4.5x | 3.8x |
| Cash dividend yield at 23.7 | — | — | — | — | 10.2% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% |
Valuation
| BDT mn unless stated | Value / FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book equity 31-Dec-2025 | 50,850 | — | — |
| Less: h x net NPL held at 31-Dec-2025 | 0 | — | — |
| Less: write-down of EBL Securities to its own book (cost 2,217 - equity 937) | 1,280 | — | — |
| Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-2025 | 49,570 | — | — |
| Net profit (standalone) | 8,924 | 8,665 | 10,170 |
| Book adjustments carried through (h x net NPL + EBLSL write-down) | 1,280 | — | — |
| Opening adjusted book | 49,570 | 55,296 | 63,961 |
| Equity charge (Ke x opening book) | 7,811 | 8,714 | 10,079 |
| Residual income | 1,113 | -48 | 91 |
| Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025) | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| PV of residual income | 961 | -36 | 59 |
| Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F | 984 | — | — |
| Book 31-Dec-2028 | 73,678 | — | — |
| Normalised (sustainable) ROE, F01 G1: FY2028F with the investment yield at T-bond - 1pp and through-cycle credit cost | |||
| Normalised investment yield (Rf - spread) | 8.3% | — | — |
| Funding-cost pass-through of a lower market yield (beta_D) | 0.30 | — | — |
| Add: investment yield normalisation net of funding repricing, after tax (FY2028F) | -219 | — | — |
| Add: half of any FY2028F credit-cost excess over the long-run 1.0%, after tax | 158 | — | — |
| Normalised net profit (FY2028F balance sheet) | 10,109 | — | — |
| Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg adjusted equity FY2027-28F) | 14.8% | — | — |
| Sustainable ROE used (normalised + scenario adjustment) | 14.8% | — | — |
| Terminal growth used = MIN(g, ROE_s x historical retention) | 7.0% | — | — |
| Economic payout = 1 - g / ROE_s (cash + excess capital earning only Ke) | 52.8% | — | — |
| Of which cash dividend at most (SPCD C06 cap) | 50.0% | — | — |
| Of which excess capital retained (value-neutral) | 2.8% | — | — |
| Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g) | 0.9x | — | — |
| PV of terminal excess return | -4,961 | — | — |
| Residual-income value 31-Dec-2025 | 45,593 | — | — |
| Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid | 47,492 | — | — |
| Residual-income value per share (BDT) | 28.89 | — | — |
| Normalised EPS (normalised ROE x adjusted avg equity FY2025-26F / shares) | 4.73 | — | — |
| Justified P/E = payout x (1 + g) / (Ke - g) | 6.4x | — | — |
| P/E leg per share (justified P/E x normalised EPS) | 30.50 | — | — |
| Peer median P/B (8 banks) + scenario adjustment | 0.8x | — | — |
| Standalone adjusted book per share, Sep-26 (equity 54,292 - EBLSL write-down 1,280) | 32.25 | — | — |
| Peer-median leg per share (context only, weight 0) | 24.95 | — | — |
| Weight: residual income | 80.0% | — | — |
| Weight: peer median P/B (dropped) | 0.0% | — | — |
| Weight: justified P/E | 20.0% | — | — |
| Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT) | 29.22 | — | — |
| Terminal share of RI value | -10.9% | — | — |
| Implied P/B on Sep-26 standalone book (33.03) | 0.9x | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2026F | 5.4x | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2027F | 5.5x | — | — |
| Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values) | |||
| Bear: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 21.7) | 19.86 | 22.80 | 20.45 |
| Base: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 24.9) | 28.89 | 30.50 | 29.22 |
| Bull: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 28.2) | 39.72 | 38.57 | 39.49 |
| Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25) | 29.59 | — | — |
| Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 23.7 (base Ke, g) | 13.2% | — | — |
WACC
| Cost of equity input | Value |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate: 10-yr BD T-bond cut-off yield | 9.3% |
| Raw beta: 2-yr weekly vs DSEX (104 returns to 29-Oct-2026) | 0.80 |
| Blume-adjusted beta | 0.87 |
| Beta used (Blume-adjusted) | 0.87 |
| Equity risk premium | 7.5% |
| Cost of equity, base (Rf + beta x ERP) | 15.8% |
| Scenario adjustment (active) | 0.0% |
| Cost of equity used (active scenario) | 15.8% |
| Terminal growth g (active) | 7.0% |
Sensitivity
| Grid (row input x column input) | Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 (base) | Col 4 | Col 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid A: cost of equity (rows) x sustainable ROE (columns); fair value per share | |||||
| Ke \\ ROE_s | 10.8% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| Ke 13.76% | 20.6 | 30.0 | 39.0 | 47.7 | 56.2 |
| Ke 14.76% | 17.7 | 25.8 | 33.5 | 40.9 | 48.2 |
| Ke 15.76% | 15.5 | 22.5 | 29.2 | 35.7 | 42.1 |
| Ke 16.76% | 13.7 | 19.9 | 25.8 | 31.6 | 37.2 |
| Ke 17.76% | 12.3 | 17.8 | 23.1 | 28.2 | 33.2 |
| Grid B: credit cost FY27-28 shock (rows) x cost of funds shock (columns); fair value per share | |||||
| Credit cost \\ cost of funds | -1.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Credit cost -1.0pp | 64.9 | 51.0 | 37.1 | 23.3 | 10.0 |
| Credit cost -0.5pp | 60.9 | 47.1 | 33.2 | 19.3 | 7.9 |
| Credit cost +0.0pp | 57.0 | 43.1 | 29.2 | 15.3 | 6.0 |
| Credit cost +0.5pp | 53.0 | 39.1 | 25.2 | 11.3 | 4.4 |
| Credit cost +1.0pp | 49.1 | 35.2 | 21.3 | 8.5 | 2.9 |
| Grid C: loan yield shock (rows, FY27-28) x cost of funds shock (columns); FY2027F EPS | |||||
| Loan yield \\ cost of funds | -1.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Loan yield -1.0pp | 6.42 | 4.96 | 3.51 | 2.05 | 0.59 |
| Loan yield -0.5pp | 7.30 | 5.85 | 4.39 | 2.93 | 1.47 |
| Loan yield +0.0pp | 8.19 | 6.73 | 5.27 | 3.81 | 2.36 |
| Loan yield +0.5pp | 9.07 | 7.61 | 6.15 | 4.70 | 3.24 |
| Loan yield +1.0pp | 9.95 | 8.50 | 7.04 | 5.58 | 4.12 |
Peers
| Metric | EBL | BRACBANK | CITYBANK | DUTCHBANGL | PUBALIBANK | PRIMEBANK | UTTARABANK | JAMUNABANK | BANKASIA | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (BDT) | 23.7 | 67.5 | 29.8 | 46.6 | 42.9 | 29.4 | 21.3 | 23.5 | 17.0 | 29.6 |
| Market cap (BDT bn) | 39.0 | 154.6 | 52.1 | 47.3 | 67.0 | 35.8 | 25.8 | 22.1 | 23.7 | 41.6 |
| P/E TTM | 4.2x | 6.5x | 3.4x | 3.6x | 5.6x | 3.7x | 3.8x | 3.5x | 4.1x | 3.7x |
| P/B (screener, consolidated) | 0.7x | 1.0x | 0.8x | 0.8x | 0.9x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.8x | 0.6x | 0.8x |
| ROE (latest quarter, annualised) | 18.1% | 19.7% | 27.2% | 22.9% | 17.9% | 20.3% | 21.4% | 22.9% | 14.6% | 20.9% |
| Dividend yield | 10.5% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| P/B-ROE regression slope (8 peers) | 0.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/B-ROE regression intercept | 0.63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R-squared | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fitted P/B at EBL's ROE | 0.8x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Dividend rule
| BDT mn unless stated | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid-up capital now (BDT mn) | 16,436.9 | — | — |
| Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn) | 20,000 | — | — |
| Gap to threshold (BDT mn) | 3,563.1 | — | — |
| Cumulative stock dividend needed | 21.7% | — | — |
| Route (a): stock dividends - assumed 22% for FY2026 (no cash), then 20% of NPAT in cash + an equal stock portion (judgement) | |||
| Stock dividend rate | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year | 20,053 | 20,053 | 20,053 |
| Shares after (mn) | 2,005.3 | 2,005.3 | 2,005.3 |
| EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT) | 4.45 | 4.32 | 5.07 |
| Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares) | 23.95 | 23.95 | 23.95 |
| FY2027F cash dividend allowed if total payout is 40% of NPAT (cash <= 50% of total) | — | 1,733 | — |
| FY2027F cash DPS on post-bonus shares (BDT) | — | 0.86 | — |
| Memo: FY2025 cash dividend under the old rules (25% of face) | 3,990 | — | — |
| Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap in FY2027 (alternative; not in the base) | |||
| New shares (mn) | 356.3 | — | — |
| Proceeds (BDT mn) | 3,563 | — | — |
| Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT) | 25.60 | — | — |
| Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT) | -0.23 | — | — |
| Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 23.7 (BDT) | 21.26 | — | — |
Subsidiaries
| BDT mn (FY2025) | Net profit | Equity / net assets | Total assets | Share of bank NPAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBL Securities PLC (brokerage, 100%) | -680.4 | 936.6 | 7,892.1 | -0.1 |
| EBL Investments Ltd (merchant bank, 100%) | 8.4 | — | 1,233.1 | 0.0 |
| EBL Asset Management Ltd (100%) | 4.6 | 198.0 | 203.7 | 0.0 |
| EBL Finance (HK) Ltd (trade finance, 100%; HKD 7.84mn x 15.66) | 122.8 | 601.0 | 3,667.3 | 0.0 |
| Memo: Offshore Banking Unit (division, inside standalone) | 250.2 | -911.4 | 53,366.9 | 0.0 |
| Memo: Yangon (Myanmar) representative office | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — |
| Check: consolidated - standalone NPAT FY2025 | -669.4 | — | — | — |
FAQ
- What is Eastern Bank's (EBL) fair value?
- We estimate BDT 20–40 a share, base 29 and probability-weighted 30, against 23.7 on 29-Oct-2026. It blends residual income on adjusted book (80%) and a justified P/E on normalised earnings (20%).
- Can EBL pay a cash dividend for 2026?
- Not under the current rule: Bangladesh Bank's SPCD circular 06 of 23 May 2026 bars cash dividends for banks with paid-up capital below Tk2,000 crore from the FY2026 dividend onward, and EBL's is Tk1,644 crore. It needs about 22% more shares; its authorised capital of Tk2,500 crore allows a stock dividend or rights issue without an EGM.
- Why did EBL's net interest income fall?
- EBL borrowed and took deposits to buy government securities: the funding cost sits in interest expense while the bond income is in investment income. Loans also fell 3.4% in nine months and the loan yield dropped to about 9.85%, so NII fell to BDT 1.5bn in 9M 2026, negative in Q3, while investment income rose to 18.5bn.
- How large is EBL's card business?
- Gross card fees were BDT 1.75bn in H1 2026, up 46%, with merchant commission, late-payment fees and interchange leading; after card direct costs the net was BDT 421mn. EBL runs about 14,000 POS terminals and is Visa's national net settlement agent for 32 banks.
- Are EBL's subsidiaries material?
- No single subsidiary passes our 10% test. EBL Securities lost BDT 680mn in 2025 and we write it down to its own book; EBL Investments, EBL Asset Management and EBL Finance (HK) earn less than 1.5% of profit each, and the Myanmar office closed in 2024. The offshore banking unit holds 11% of loans but earns 2.8% of profit.
Sources
- Eastern Bank PLC Annual Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025), standalone and consolidated; page numbers are PDF pages (printed page = PDF page - 2) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Eastern Bank PLC condensed consolidated and separate financial statements (un-audited), half year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Eastern Bank PLC condensed consolidated and separate financial statements (un-audited), nine months to 30-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
- Eastern Bank PLC condensed financial statements (un-audited), quarter to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive for EBL, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, subordinated bonds, Q1-Q3 2026 results, management changes) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (EBL, DSEX) and bank screener, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank call money and treasury auction pages, 29 Oct 2026 (10-year bond cut-off 9.2680% on 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- Bangladesh Bank, Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026 (Table 102) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- AnalystBro model (workbook on this page) · accessed 2026-10-31
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