ONE Bank financial analysis: 19.6% NPL, Tk3,903 crore provision deferral and CRAR below 12.5% (Oct 2026)
ONE Bank: a 19.6% NPL bank whose Tk3,903 crore deferred provision is larger than its equity, with net interest income down to 0.9% of earning assets
Bangladesh Bank let ONE Bank defer Tk3,903 crore of required provisions for 2025. Without that permission the auditor says equity would be minus Tk1,025 crore. Classified loans have risen from 5.3% to 19.6% of loans since 2017, the cost of fund is 10.06%, CRAR is 11.12% against a 12.5% requirement, and the shares are in the Z category after a second year without a dividend.
For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.
- Required provision was BDT 54.9bn; the bank kept BDT 15.9bn and Bangladesh Bank allowed it to defer BDT 39.0bn (Tk3,903 crore), 167% of equity [1 p.74] [1 p.86] [20] →
- The auditor says recognising it would turn equity into minus Tk1,025 crore and 2025 profit into a Tk3,340 crore loss [1 p.2] →
- Classified loans rose from 5.31% (2017) to 19.61% (2025); special mention loans tripled to BDT 14.4bn, so classified plus SMA is 25.6% of loans [1 p.103] [1 p.73] [20] →
- Net interest income fell to BDT 2,488m: interest paid was 90% of interest income and NII was 0.94% of average earning assets; investment income was 57% of operating income [1 p.21] [1 p.103] [20] →
- CRAR 11.12% and CET-1 6.63% against a 12.5% requirement (BDT 3.1bn short); bonds supply 40% of total capital [1 p.89] [1 p.3] [20] →
Investment considerations: a deposit franchise that still grows, carried by a provision deferral larger than its equity
ONE Bank PLC is a private commercial bank listed on the Dhaka and Chittagong stock exchanges [1 p.89]. On 30 June 2026 its solo balance sheet was BDT 380.3bn: deposits BDT 289.1bn, loans BDT 245.2bn, government securities BDT 59.6bn and shareholders' equity BDT 23.8bn [2 p.7]. It runs a conventional book with an Islamic banking unit and an offshore banking unit [1 p.113] [1 p.125], and owns two subsidiaries, ONE Securities Limited and ONE Investments Limited [1 p.12]. The investor's question here is not growth or margins. It is how much of the reported equity is real. In its 2025 accounts the bank kept BDT 15.9bn of provisions against a requirement of BDT 54.9bn, and Bangladesh Bank allowed the BDT 39.0bn difference to be deferred by letter of 30 April 2026 [1 p.74].
The auditor, Mahamud Sabuj & Co., gave an unmodified opinion but put four emphasis-of-matter paragraphs in front of it. Had the deferred provision been booked, it wrote, 2025 profit after tax of BDT 21.68 crore would have been a loss of BDT 3,340.21 crore and equity of BDT 2,336.73 crore would have been minus BDT 1,025.15 crore, below the BDT 500 crore statutory minimum [1 p.2]. The auditor says the bank "applied qualitative judgment to retain certain loans and advances as unclassified, notwithstanding that those exposures met the objective criteria for adverse classification", and booked their interest as income. It says the amount "could not be determined, as the requisite information was not made available to us", but estimates it at "few hundred crore Taka" [1 p.3]. Against this, the bank still reports positive profit (BDT 0.88 a share for the first nine months of 2026 [12], consolidated, per DSE announcement of 29-Oct-2026; H1 solo EPS was 0.62 [2 p.8]), deposits that keep growing, and a share price of BDT 7.0, which is 0.31 times reported solo NAV [19] [2 p.7].
Strengths an investor would weigh
- Deposits still grow: up 8.9% in 2025 to BDT 273.5bn and a further 5.7% in H1 2026 [1 p.19] [2 p.7] [20].
- Little reliance on money markets: borrowings from banks and institutions were BDT 10.0bn at Dec-2025, of which BDT 10.0bn was Bangladesh Bank refinance and repo, down from BDT 29.9bn in 2018 [1 p.79] [7 p.14].
- Pre-provision profit is still positive: BDT 4,638m in 2025 and BDT 1,672m in H1 2026 [20].
- Cash interest receipts recovered in H1 2026: BDT 19.2bn received against BDT 12.9bn of interest income booked [2 p.9] [2 p.8].
Weaknesses an investor would weigh
- Deferred provision of BDT 39.0bn is 167% of equity; on the auditor's basis equity would be minus BDT 10.25bn [1 p.2] [20].
- Classified loans 19.61% of loans; bad/loss is 91% of the classified book, and specific provision covers only 34% of it [1 p.73] [20].
- Cost of fund 10.06% in 2025 against 8.81% at NCC Bank and 9.65% at Dhaka Bank on the same label [1 p.103] [9 p.184] [10 p.64].
- CRAR 11.12% and CET-1 6.63%, below the 12.5% minimum-plus-buffer the auditor cites [1 p.89] [1 p.3].
- The auditor found a 12-month net liquidity gap of BDT 8,204.26 crore and large-loan and single-borrower limit breaches [1 p.12] [1 p.11].
- No dividend for 2024 or 2025; the shares were moved to the Z category, The Financial Express reported on 3-May-2026 [1 p.88] [13].
Data
| 02 Nov 25 | 09 Nov 25 | 16 Nov 25 | 23 Nov 25 | 30 Nov 25 | 07 Dec 25 | 14 Dec 25 | 21 Dec 25 | 28 Dec 25 | 04 Jan 26 | 11 Jan 26 | 18 Jan 26 | 25 Jan 26 | 01 Feb 26 | 08 Feb 26 | 15 Feb 26 | 22 Feb 26 | 01 Mar 26 | 08 Mar 26 | 15 Mar 26 | 24 Mar 26 | 29 Mar 26 | 05 Apr 26 | 12 Apr 26 | 19 Apr 26 | 26 Apr 26 | 03 May 26 | 10 May 26 | 17 May 26 | 24 May 26 | 01 Jun 26 | 07 Jun 26 | 14 Jun 26 | 21 Jun 26 | 28 Jun 26 | 05 Jul 26 | 12 Jul 26 | 19 Jul 26 | 26 Jul 26 | 02 Aug 26 | 09 Aug 26 | 16 Aug 26 | 23 Aug 26 | 30 Aug 26 | 06 Sep 26 | 13 Sep 26 | 20 Sep 26 | 27 Sep 26 | 04 Oct 26 | 11 Oct 26 | 18 Oct 26 | 25 Oct 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close | 6.70 | 6.60 | 6.90 | 7.10 | 6.80 | 7.00 | 6.80 | 6.90 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.20 | 7.30 | 7.50 | 8.00 | 8.00 | 8.20 | 7.90 | 7.90 | 7.90 | 7.70 | 7.50 | 7.20 | 7.00 | 7.20 | 7.00 | 6.50 | 6.80 | 7.50 | 7.70 | 8.40 | 8.60 | 8.10 | 8.00 | 8.00 | 7.70 | 7.90 | 7.90 | 8.10 | 8.00 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 7.90 | 7.70 | 7.70 | 7.60 | 7.70 | 7.40 | 7.00 | 6.90 | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Price (week to 29-Oct-2026) | BDT 7.0 |
| 52-week range (weekly high/low) | BDT 6.2-9.1 |
| Market cap | BDT 7.46bn |
| Shares | 1,065.8m |
| NAV per share (Jun-2026, solo, before deferred provision) | BDT 22.30 |
| P/B (Jun-2026 solo NAV) | 0.31x |
| Classified loans (Dec-2025) | 19.61% (BDT 47.5bn) |
| Deferred provision (BB letter, 30-Apr-2026) | BDT 39.0bn (Tk3,903 crore) |
| CRAR / CET-1 (Dec-2025, solo) | 11.12% / 6.63% |
| Cost of fund (2025, reported) | 10.06% |
| Paid-up vs Tk2,000 crore rule | Tk1,065.8 crore, 46.7% short |
| Dividend | None for 2024 and 2025; Z category |
| 9M 2026 EPS (DSE, consolidated) | BDT 0.88; NAV 23.10 |
| Sponsors' shareholding (Dec-2025) | 30.94% |
Franchise: deposits grew 50% since 2017, but loans stalled for five years and the new money went to treasury bills and a few large borrowers
Between 2017 and 2025 deposits grew from BDT 182.7bn to BDT 273.5bn and loans from BDT 170.4bn to BDT 242.0bn [7 p.14] [1 p.19]. Growth was fast to 2019 and then stopped: loans rose 16.7% in 2018 but moved within 2.5% either way each year from 2020 to 2024, and fell in 2023 and 2024 [20]. Deposits behaved the same way, with growth of 0.6% in 2020, 0.5% in 2021 and a 2.0% fall in 2022 [20]. The years when the loan book stood still are the years when classified loans climbed from 8.6% to 17.5%; the bank was lending less and recovering less.
2025 broke the pattern on the surface. Loans grew 9.6% and deposits 8.9% [20]. Part of the loan growth is not new lending to new names: the bank's exposure to clients above 10% of its capital rose from 11 clients and BDT 43.5bn to 20 clients and BDT 80.4bn, and BDT 11.3bn of that was already classified [1 p.75]. The auditor reported that several exposures exceeded the 25% single-borrower limit and that the large-loan portfolio exceeded the 34% of loans the bank was allowed at 30-Sep-2025, based on the auditor's classification of loans [1 p.11]. Lending is concentrated in Dhaka (BDT 171.8bn of urban loans) and Chattogram (BDT 50.7bn); readymade garments (BDT 39.6bn) and textiles (BDT 25.7bn) are the largest named industries [1 p.73].
On the funding side the deposit mix is heavy on term money. Fixed deposits were 73% of deposits in 2025, and current plus savings accounts only 26% [20]. The current-and-savings share improved from 17.7% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2022, then slipped back to 26.2% in 2025 and 24.8% in June 2026 as fixed deposits grew BDT 14.9bn in six months [20] [2 p.7]. Wholesale funding is small. Borrowings from banks, institutions and agents fell from BDT 29.9bn in 2018 to BDT 10.0bn in 2025, almost all of it Bangladesh Bank lines: Export Development Fund BDT 4.7bn, assured repo BDT 2.7bn and COVID stimulus refinance BDT 1.1bn [7 p.14] [1 p.79]. The bank also has BDT 11.5bn of subordinated and perpetual bonds outstanding [1 p.19].
Loans to deposits fell from 99.9% in 2022 to 88.5% in 2025 and 84.8% in June 2026 [20]. The money went into government securities, which rose from BDT 29.0bn in 2022 to BDT 47.4bn in 2025 and BDT 59.6bn in June 2026, from 9.2% to 15.7% of total assets [5 p.17] [1 p.19] [2 p.7] [20]. That shift explains much of the income statement: investment income has replaced the interest margin as the main earner.
Data
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deposits | 182,675.00 | 202,631.00 | 228,091.00 | 229,485.00 | 230,659.00 | 226,060.00 | 241,819.00 | 251,199.00 | 273,498.00 |
| Loans | 170,394.00 | 198,909.00 | 215,228.00 | 220,342.00 | 222,694.00 | 225,709.00 | 224,335.00 | 220,914.00 | 242,029.00 |
| Government securities | 21,350.00 | 23,026.00 | 28,491.00 | 25,356.00 | 31,624.00 | 29,007.00 | 33,934.00 | 45,180.00 | 47,438.00 |
Data
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 23,287.00 | 21,038.00 | 18,882.00 | 25,601.00 | 27,500.00 | 33,026.00 | 30,863.00 | 35,821.00 | 36,500.00 |
| Savings | 17,626.00 | 17,869.00 | 21,377.00 | 26,768.00 | 31,887.00 | 31,570.00 | 31,514.00 | 31,364.00 | 35,016.00 |
| Fixed | 139,785.00 | 162,153.00 | 185,459.00 | 174,554.00 | 168,438.00 | 158,832.00 | 178,061.00 | 181,893.00 | 200,494.00 |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deposit growth | 10.9% | 12.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | -2.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 8.9% |
| Loan growth | 16.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | -0.6% | -1.5% | 9.6% |
| Loans / deposits | 98.2% | 94.4% | 96.0% | 96.5% | 99.9% | 92.8% | 87.9% | 88.5% |
| Current + savings / deposits | 19.2% | 17.6% | 22.8% | 25.8% | 28.6% | 25.8% | 26.8% | 26.2% |
| Government securities / total assets | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 13.2% |
| Industry | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Readymade garments | 37,876 | 39,561 |
| Textiles | 24,041 | 25,656 |
| Trade finance | 21,136 | 19,175 |
| Steel re-rolling | 13,438 | 16,825 |
| Real estate | 11,343 | 12,928 |
| Construction / engineering | 11,718 | 10,544 |
| Pharmaceuticals | 7,684 | 9,866 |
| Others | 62,911 | 73,288 |
| Total loans | 220,914 | 242,029 |
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 176,994 | 179,166 |
| Special mention account | 4,483 | 14,392 |
| Staff loan | 849 | 1,012 |
| Sub-standard | 937 | 1,770 |
| Doubtful | 529 | 2,428 |
| Bad/loss | 37,122 | 43,262 |
| Specific provision maintained | 13,938 | 15,906 |
| Total provision required (loans + off-balance sheet) | — | 54,936 |
| Interest suspense | 11,343 | 12,734 |
| Written off during the year | 7,130 | 7,528 |
| Exposure of clients above 10% of capital | 43,503 | 80,379 |
| of which classified | 7,190 | 11,322 |
| Shareholders' equity | 23,550 | 23,367 |
| DTA adjustment if deferral were recognised (auditor) | — | 5,412 |
| Classified loans (SS + DF + BL) | 38,588 | 47,460 |
| Total loans | 220,914 | 242,029 |
| Classified / total loans | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| SMA / total loans | 2.0% | 5.9% |
| Classified + SMA / total loans | 19.5% | 25.6% |
| Bad/loss share of classified | 96.2% | 91.2% |
| Specific provision / classified | 36.1% | 33.5% |
| (Specific provision + interest suspense) / classified | 65.5% | 60.3% |
| Deferred provision (required - maintained) | — | 39,030 |
| Deferred provision / equity | — | 167.0% |
| Equity if deferral recognised (net of DTA), auditor basis | — | -10,251 |
| Write-off / opening classified | — | 19.5% |
From the Asset quality tab of the model.
Line items: interest paid took 90% of interest income in 2025, and only a deferred tax credit kept profit positive
Net interest income. Interest income was BDT 25,042m in 2025, up 2.7%, but interest paid on deposits and borrowings rose 23.2% to BDT 22,554m, so net interest income fell from BDT 6,081m to BDT 2,488m [1 p.21]. Interest paid absorbed 90.1% of interest income, against 75.1% in 2024 and 67.2% in 2017 [20]. Measured against average interest-earning assets, NII was 0.94% in 2025, down from 2.87% in 2018 and 2.34% in 2024 [20]. The bank does not publish a NIM line in the statements we read, so this is our proxy from its reported interest-earning assets [1 p.103].
Cost of fund. The bank's own 'cost of fund' was 10.06% in 2025 and 10.09% in 2024, up from 6.73% in 2021 [1 p.103] [5 p.96]. On our simpler measure, interest expense over average deposits rose from 5.2% in 2021 to 8.6% in 2025 [20]. Two things drive it. First, fixed deposits are about three quarters of deposits and reprice as they roll. Second, a weaker bank pays more to keep term money: ONE Bank's cost of fund is 1.25pp above NCC Bank's and 0.41pp above Dhaka Bank's on the same label [9 p.184] [10 p.64] [20].
Loan yield and the classified book. Interest income over average loans was 10.8% in 2025 [20]. Yield is held down by the classified book: interest on loans classified as sub-standard or worse goes to interest suspense rather than income, and the suspense balance reached BDT 12.7bn in 2025 [1 p.73]. The auditor's finding works in the other direction. The auditor says the bank "applied qualitative judgment to retain certain loans and advances as unclassified, notwithstanding that those exposures met the objective criteria for adverse classification", and booked their interest as income. It says the amount "could not be determined, as the requisite information was not made available to us", but estimates it at "few hundred crore Taka" [1 p.3]. Reported NII, thin as it is, may therefore be overstated.
Investment income. Income from investments rose from BDT 3,125m in 2023 to BDT 6,698m in 2025 and became 57% of total operating income [3 p.20] [1 p.21] [20]. NII plus investment income over average earning assets was 3.46% in 2025, so the bank's combined earning margin is still positive; the treasury book is what keeps it so [20]. In H1 2026 investment income fell 12.0% to BDT 3,027m even as government securities grew, and it was 57% of operating income [2 p.8] [20]. History gives the sensitivity: in 2025 each 10% change in investment income moved operating income by BDT 670m, more than three times 2025 profit after tax [20].
Fees, exchange and other income. Commission, exchange and brokerage peaked at BDT 2,671m in 2022, when exchange gains were high, and was BDT 1,711m in 2025 [5 p.19] [1 p.21]. In H1 2026 it fell 35.2% to BDT 628m [2 p.8]. Other operating income is steady at about BDT 0.8bn [1 p.21].
Operating expenses. Costs rose from BDT 4,471m in 2017 to BDT 7,112m in 2025, with salaries at BDT 4,404m the largest item [7 p.16] [1 p.21]. Because income fell, cost to income rose from 46.2% in 2024 to 60.5% in 2025 and 68.6% in H1 2026 [20].
Provisions and tax. Provisions charged to profit were BDT 7,300m in 2024 and BDT 6,465m in 2025, 92% and 139% of pre-provision profit [20]. Profit before tax was a loss of BDT 1,827m in 2025. A deferred tax credit of BDT 2,600m, recognised mostly on loan-loss provisions and tax losses carried forward, turned it into profit after tax of BDT 217m [1 p.21]. That deferred tax asset does not count as capital: the bank deducted BDT 7,808m of it from CET-1 in 2025 [1 p.89].
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 14,923 | 21,028 | 23,352 | 19,661 | 15,987 | 16,176 | 18,858 | 24,394 | 25,042 |
| Interest paid | 10,034 | 14,734 | 17,957 | 16,266 | 11,878 | 11,943 | 14,340 | 18,312 | 22,554 |
| Net interest income | 4,888 | 6,295 | 5,395 | 3,395 | 4,110 | 4,233 | 4,518 | 6,081 | 2,488 |
| Investment income | 2,238 | 1,886 | 1,874 | 2,710 | 2,051 | 2,638 | 3,125 | 5,827 | 6,698 |
| Fees and exchange | 1,894 | 1,424 | 1,420 | 1,122 | 1,608 | 2,671 | 1,900 | 2,018 | 1,711 |
| Total operating income | 9,575 | 10,214 | 9,331 | 7,999 | 8,388 | 10,236 | 10,330 | 14,706 | 11,750 |
| Operating expenses | 4,471 | 4,829 | 5,212 | 5,074 | 4,931 | 5,949 | 6,720 | 6,798 | 7,112 |
| Pre-provision profit | 5,105 | 5,385 | 4,119 | 2,925 | 3,456 | 4,287 | 3,611 | 7,908 | 4,638 |
| Provisions | 1,760 | 3,043 | 1,568 | 1,183 | 2,003 | 2,237 | 2,049 | 7,300 | 6,465 |
| Profit before tax | 3,345 | 2,342 | 2,551 | 1,742 | 1,453 | 2,049 | 1,562 | 609 | -1,827 |
| Tax (net of deferred) | 1,163 | 949 | 892 | 429 | 697 | 658 | 410 | -671 | -2,044 |
| Profit after tax | 2,181 | 1,393 | 1,660 | 1,313 | 756 | 1,392 | 1,152 | 1,280 | 217 |
Data
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 4,888.00 | 6,295.00 | 5,395.00 | 3,395.00 | 4,110.00 | 4,233.00 | 4,518.00 | 6,081.00 | 2,488.00 |
| Investment income | 2,238.00 | 1,886.00 | 1,874.00 | 2,710.00 | 2,051.00 | 2,638.00 | 3,125.00 | 5,827.00 | 6,698.00 |
| Fees and exchange | 1,894.00 | 1,424.00 | 1,420.00 | 1,122.00 | 1,608.00 | 2,671.00 | 1,900.00 | 2,018.00 | 1,711.00 |
| Other | 556.00 | 608.00 | 642.00 | 772.00 | 620.00 | 694.00 | 788.00 | 781.00 | 854.00 |
Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NII / avg earning assets | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| (NII + investment income) / avg earning assets | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Cost of fund (reported) | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Interest expense / avg deposits | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest expense / interest income | 67.2% | 70.1% | 76.9% | 82.7% | 74.3% | 73.8% | 76.0% | 75.1% | 90.1% |
| Investment income share | 23.4% | 18.5% | 20.1% | 33.9% | 24.4% | 25.8% | 30.2% | 39.6% | 57.0% |
| Cost / income | 46.7% | 47.3% | 55.9% | 63.4% | 58.8% | 58.1% | 65.0% | 46.2% | 60.5% |
| Provisions / pre-provision profit | 34.5% | 56.5% | 38.1% | 40.5% | 58.0% | 52.2% | 56.8% | 92.3% | 139.4% |
| ROE (avg equity) | — | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 7.8% | — | 5.5% | 0.9% |
| ROA (avg assets) | — | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Asset quality: classified loans at 19.6% and a BDT 39.0bn deferred provision that would wipe out equity
Classified loans were 5.31% of loans in 2017 and 19.61% in 2025, BDT 47.5bn [7 p.83] [1 p.103]. The ratio rose in almost every year: 7.05% in 2018, 9.24% in 2019, 11.55% in 2021, 13.97% in 2022 and 17.47% in 2024 [6 p.93] [5 p.96] [1 p.103]. The only fall, to 11.95% in 2023, came as classified loans dropped BDT 4.7bn to BDT 26.8bn [4 p.99]; they rose BDT 11.8bn the next year [1 p.103]. Provisions written off against loans were BDT 3,986m in 2024 and BDT 5,819m in 2025 [1 p.86]. Bad/loss loans are BDT 43.3bn, 91% of the classified total, so most of the book is old, not newly overdue [1 p.73] [20].
The next wave is visible. Special mention loans, which are overdue but not yet classified, rose from BDT 4.5bn to BDT 14.4bn in 2025, and sub-standard plus doubtful loans from BDT 1.5bn to BDT 4.2bn [1 p.73]. Classified plus special mention loans were 25.6% of the book [20]. Write-offs continue: BDT 7,130m in 2024 and BDT 7,528m in 2025, and the cumulative written-off book reached BDT 28,252m [1 p.75]. Without write-offs the ratio would be higher still.
The provision gap and the deferral. Provision kept against classified loans was BDT 15,905m, 34% of classified loans [1 p.103] [20]. Under Bangladesh Bank letter BSD-1(Wing-2)/2209/2026-303 of 28 April 2026 the required provision for loans and off-balance-sheet items was BDT 54,936m; the bank recognised BDT 15,905m, and letter BSD-1(Wing-2)/2209/2026-312 of 30 April 2026 permitted it to defer the remaining BDT 39,030m [1 p.74]. To meet the same letter, it moved its entire general provision and off-balance-sheet provision, BDT 1,146m, into specific provision, so it has no general provision left as a buffer for standard loans [1 p.86]. The financial-highlights page shows the deficit has existed for five years: BDT 9,384m in 2021, 10,244m in 2022, 6,410m in 2023, 17,975m in 2024 and 39,030m in 2025 [5 p.96] [4 p.99] [1 p.103].
The size matters because of equity. The 2025 deficit is 167% of reported equity of BDT 23,367m [20]. The auditor's own adjustment, net of BDT 5,412m of deferred tax, gives equity of minus BDT 10,251m and NAV of minus BDT 9.62 a share, against a reported BDT 21.92 [1 p.2] [20]. The statements we read do not disclose a schedule over which the deferred amount must be recognised; the BB letter is cited only by number and date [1 p.74]. We do not assume one.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classified loans | 9,041 | 14,031 | 19,895 | 18,957 | 25,728 | 31,530 | 26,810 | 38,588 | 47,460 |
| Classified / loans | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| Provision kept against classified | 4,334 | 5,509 | 7,331 | 8,143 | 8,430 | 10,651 | 10,264 | 13,938 | 15,906 |
| Coverage | 47.9% | 39.3% | 36.9% | 43.0% | 32.8% | 33.8% | 38.3% | 36.1% | 33.5% |
| Provision surplus/(deficit) | 0 | 0 | — | — | -9,384 | -10,244 | -6,410 | -17,974 | -39,030 |
| Deficit / equity | — | — | — | — | 53.7% | 55.7% | 28.2% | 76.3% | 167.0% |
Data
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classified / loans | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 176,994 | 179,166 |
| Special mention account | 4,483 | 14,392 |
| Staff loan | 849 | 1,012 |
| Sub-standard | 937 | 1,770 |
| Doubtful | 529 | 2,428 |
| Bad/loss | 37,122 | 43,262 |
| Specific provision maintained | 13,938 | 15,906 |
| Total provision required (loans + off-balance sheet) | — | 54,936 |
| Interest suspense | 11,343 | 12,734 |
| Written off during the year | 7,130 | 7,528 |
| Exposure of clients above 10% of capital | 43,503 | 80,379 |
| of which classified | 7,190 | 11,322 |
| Shareholders' equity | 23,550 | 23,367 |
| DTA adjustment if deferral were recognised (auditor) | — | 5,412 |
| Classified loans (SS + DF + BL) | 38,588 | 47,460 |
| Total loans | 220,914 | 242,029 |
| Classified / total loans | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| SMA / total loans | 2.0% | 5.9% |
| Classified + SMA / total loans | 19.5% | 25.6% |
| Bad/loss share of classified | 96.2% | 91.2% |
| Specific provision / classified | 36.1% | 33.5% |
| (Specific provision + interest suspense) / classified | 65.5% | 60.3% |
| Deferred provision (required - maintained) | — | 39,030 |
| Deferred provision / equity | — | 167.0% |
| Equity if deferral recognised (net of DTA), auditor basis | — | -10,251 |
| Write-off / opening classified | — | 19.5% |
From the Asset quality tab of the model.
Capital: CRAR 11.12% and CET-1 6.63% even before the deferred provision, with bonds 40% of capital
Solo CRAR fell from 13.60% at Dec-2024 to 11.12% at Dec-2025, CET-1 from 8.00% to 6.63% and tier-1 from 9.80% to 8.13% [1 p.89]. Total capital fell BDT 5.1bn to BDT 25.0bn: CET-1 dropped because the deductible deferred tax asset grew from BDT 5.2bn to BDT 7.8bn, and tier-2 lost the BDT 1.1bn general provision that was moved into specific provision [1 p.89]. The bank still shows a BDT 2.5bn surplus over the 10% minimum, but the auditor notes that the requirement including the conservation buffer is 12.5%, and on that basis the bank is BDT 3.1bn short [1 p.3] [20]. All of these ratios are computed with the deferred provision left out.
Bonds. Capital leans on debt instruments. At Dec-2025 the bank had BDT 7.5bn of subordinated bonds (III: BDT 0.28bn, IV: BDT 3.2bn, V: BDT 4.0bn) and a BDT 4.0bn contingent-convertible perpetual bond [1 p.80]. Bonds supply BDT 10.1bn of regulatory capital (perpetual bond BDT 3.38bn in AT1 and BDT 0.62bn in tier-2, subordinated bonds BDT 6.10bn in tier-2), 40% of total capital; their face value is BDT 11.5bn [1 p.89] [1 p.80] [20]. Subordinated bonds amortise, and their capital credit shrinks as they near maturity: tier-2 credit for subordinated debt fell from BDT 7.29bn to BDT 6.10bn in 2025 [1 p.89]. The bonds float at a benchmark plus 2% within a band; the rates applying at the balance-sheet date were 9.00% (bonds III and IV) and 10.00% (perpetual), the top of each band [1 p.80] [1 p.43]. The investor list shows who carries the risk: Sonali Bank, Agrani Bank, Jamuna Bank, Dhaka Bank and LankaBangla Finance are among the investors named [1 p.80]. Perpetual-bond coupons of BDT 400m a year were paid out of retained earnings in 2024 and 2025 [1 p.21].
Leverage was 4.93% against 6.15% a year earlier [1 p.89]. Risk-weighted assets were BDT 225.1bn, only 1.7% above 2024, while loans grew 9.6% [1 p.89] [20].
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Common equity tier-1 | 17,694 | 14,928 |
| Additional tier-1 (perpetual bond) | 4,000 | 3,376 |
| Tier-2 capital | 8,395 | 6,724 |
| Risk-weighted assets | 221,314 | 225,059 |
| DTA deducted from CET-1 | 5,227 | 7,808 |
| Subordinated bond III outstanding | 1,680 | 280 |
| Subordinated bond IV outstanding | 4,000 | 3,200 |
| Subordinated bond V outstanding | 3,770 | 4,000 |
| Perpetual bond | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Subordinated bonds counted in tier-2 | 7,290 | 6,100 |
| Remaining part of perpetual bond in tier-2 | 0 | 624 |
| Total capital | 30,089 | 25,028 |
| CRAR | 13.6% | 11.1% |
| CET-1 ratio | 8.0% | 6.6% |
| Tier-1 ratio | 9.8% | 8.1% |
| Shortfall to 12.5% (minimum plus buffer) | — | 3,105 |
| Bonds outstanding | 13,450 | 11,480 |
| Capital credit from bonds (AT1 + tier-2 bonds) | 11,290 | 10,100 |
| Bond capital credit / total capital | 37.5% | 40.4% |
From the Capital tab of the model.
Data
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capital | 21,366.00 | 23,196.00 | 24,977.00 | 25,951.00 | 27,947.00 | 28,969.00 | 30,582.00 | 30,089.00 | 25,028.00 |
| Surplus over minimum | 2,886.00 | 3,745.00 | 586.00 | 1,031.00 | 4,724.00 | 4,354.00 | 7,428.00 | 7,957.00 | 2,522.00 |
H1 2026: NII down 23%, profit held up by a halved provision charge
The first half of 2026 shows the same pressures without the year-end adjustments. Interest income rose 2.1% to BDT 12,915m, interest paid rose 6.1% to BDT 11,598m, and NII fell 23.2% to BDT 1,316m [2 p.8] [20]. Interest paid was 89.8% of interest income [20]. Investment income fell to BDT 3,027m and fees to BDT 628m, so total operating income fell 18.0% to BDT 5,330m [20].
Profit after tax fell less, to BDT 666m from BDT 871m, because the provision charge halved to BDT 862m [2 p.8]. Of that, BDT 500m was a general provision; specific provision was BDT 362m for the half, and in the second quarter BDT 134m of specific provision was written back [2 p.8]. The DSE announcement for the third quarter gave EPS of BDT 0.11 for July-September and BDT 0.88 for nine months, with NAV of BDT 23.10 [12] (consolidated, per DSE announcement of 29-Oct-2026; H1 solo EPS was 0.62 [2 p.8]). The interim statements we read do not update the classified-loan figure or the deferral, so whether the classified ratio is still rising cannot be seen until the 2026 annual accounts.
On the balance sheet, deposits rose BDT 15.6bn in six months to BDT 289.1bn, almost all in fixed deposits; loans rose only BDT 3.2bn, and government securities rose BDT 12.2bn [2 p.7] [20]. The net operating cash flow was BDT 5,014m, helped by a BDT 3,834m fall in interest and dividend receivable, against a large increase in 2025 [2 p.18].
| BDT mn | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 12,648 | 12,915 |
| Interest paid on deposits and borrowings | 10,934 | 11,598 |
| Investment income | 3,441 | 3,027 |
| Commission, exchange and brokerage | 970 | 628 |
| Other operating income | 375 | 359 |
| Total operating expenses | 3,485 | 3,658 |
| Total provision | 1,703 | 862 |
| Provision for taxation | 440 | 145 |
| Net profit after taxation | 871 | 666 |
| Net interest income | 1,714 | 1,316 |
| Total operating income | 6,499 | 5,330 |
| Profit before provision and tax | 3,014 | 1,672 |
| Profit before tax | 1,311 | 811 |
| Interest expense / interest income | 86.5% | 89.8% |
| Investment income share of operating income | 52.9% | 56.8% |
| Cost / income | 53.6% | 68.6% |
| Change vs H1 2025: operating income | — | -18.0% |
| Change vs H1 2025: NII | — | -23.2% |
From the Half-years tab of the model.
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | Jun-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current and other accounts | 35,821 | 36,500 | 35,467 |
| Bills payable | 2,121 | 1,488 | 1,997 |
| Savings deposits | 31,364 | 35,016 | 36,290 |
| Fixed deposits | 181,893 | 200,494 | 215,380 |
| Borrowings from banks, FIs and agents | 11,073 | 9,976 | 13,913 |
| Subordinated and perpetual bonds | 13,450 | 11,480 | 11,200 |
| Loans and advances | 220,914 | 242,029 | 245,223 |
| Government securities | 45,180 | 47,438 | 59,641 |
| Total assets | 338,119 | 360,113 | 380,287 |
| Shareholders' equity | 23,550 | 23,367 | 23,768 |
| Deposits (sum of lines) | 251,199 | 273,498 | 289,134 |
| Current + savings / deposits | 26.7% | 26.1% | 24.8% |
| Fixed deposits / deposits | 72.4% | 73.3% | 74.5% |
| Loans / deposits | 87.9% | 88.5% | 84.8% |
| Government securities / total assets | 13.4% | 13.2% | 15.7% |
| Equity / total assets | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% |
| Deposit growth vs prior column | — | 8.9% | 5.7% |
| Loan growth vs prior column | — | 9.6% | 1.3% |
From the Balance sheet tab of the model.
Governance: HRC-linked history, a chairman removed by BB in 2020, and an auditor's report full of exceptions
Sponsors and the HRC link. Sponsors held 30.94% of the shares at Dec-2025 and the general public, institutions and foreign investors 69.06% [1 p.88]. The bank's history is tied to HRC Group. Its corporate head office is at HRC Bhaban, Kawran Bazar [11]. The 2024 related-party note listed five lease agreements with companies whose managing director is Mr. Sayeed H. Chowdhury: Hamid Properties (Kawran Bazar branch, lease to 30-Jun-2028), HRC Properties (two Chattogram premises, one lease to 28-Feb-2029), HRC Leather Complex and HRC Bangladesh [3 p.102]. The 2025 note lists, under business with directors' related concerns, only two lease agreements with Shamah Enterprises, a company of director Zahur Ullah [1 p.101].
In July 2020 Bangladesh Bank removed Sayeed Hossain Chowdhury as chairman of ONE Bank, The Business Standard and Prothom Alo both reported on 6-Jul-2020 [15] [16]. Both describe him as chairman of HRC Group; Prothom Alo quoted the central bank spokesman as saying a loan defaulter cannot remain on a bank's board, and TBS reported that Chowdhury denied breaking any rules [15] [16]. A.S.M. Shahidullah Khan signed the 2020 accounts as chairman in March 2021 and signed the 2025 accounts as chairman on 30 April 2026 [6 p.17] [1 p.21]. Annexure-E lists him as having an interest in Media New Age Ltd. and several other companies [1 p.108].
Management. The 2024 accounts were signed by Shabbir Ahmed as managing director (current charge) on 25 May 2025; the 2025 accounts were signed by Muhit Rahman as managing director [3 p.20] [1 p.21]. The same independent director, AMMM Aurangzeb Chowdhury, and director Zahur Ullah signed both years [3 p.20] [1 p.21].
Related-party lending and exposures. The 2025 note shows only small credit-card limits for two directors, a deposit of BDT 64 crore placed with LankaBangla Finance, a BDT 12.24 crore investment in LankaBangla shares, and subordinated and perpetual bonds of BDT 14 crore and BDT 50 crore sold to LankaBangla [1 p.101]. Loans to companies in which directors have an interest are not shown as a separate balance in that note. The bigger governance question is in the auditor's report: large-loan and single-borrower limit breaches, loans kept unclassified against the objective criteria, and a 12-month liquidity gap [1 p.11] [1 p.12] [1 p.3].
Auditor. Mahamud Sabuj & Co. audited 2024 and 2025 [3 p.20] [1 p.21]; MABS & J Partners signed 2022 and the 2023 highlights carry its seal [5 p.19] [4 p.99]; ACNABIN audited 2020 [6 p.17]. The 2025 opinion is unmodified with four emphasis-of-matter paragraphs: the deferral, equity below the statutory minimum if the deferral were booked, interest recognised on loans that met the criteria for classification, and CRAR below 12.5% [1 p.2] [1 p.3].
| Item | What the source says | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Sponsors' shareholding | 30.94% (Dec-2024 and Dec-2025) | [s1] p.88 |
| Chairman | A.S.M. Shahidullah Khan (signed FY2020 and FY2025 accounts) | [s6] p.17; [s1] p.21 |
| BB removed previous chairman | Sayeed Hossain Chowdhury, HRC Group chairman (reported 6-Jul-2020) | [s15] [s16] |
| HRC-linked leases (2024 note) | Five leases; Kawran Bazar to 30-Jun-2028, Chattogram to 28-Feb-2029 | [s3] p.102 |
| Auditor 2025 | Mahamud Sabuj & Co.; unmodified, four emphasis-of-matter items | [s1] p.2-3 |
| Limit breaches | Single-borrower 25% and large-loan 34% limits exceeded | [s1] p.11 |
| Liquidity gap | Net BDT 8,204.26 crore within 12 months | [s1] p.12 |
| DSE category | Moved to Z after no dividend for 2025 (FE, 3-May-2026) | [s13] |
Dividends: seven years of stock dividends, then none, and 46.7% short of the Tk2,000 crore cash line
ONE Bank's capital history lists stock dividends every year from 2017 to 2023, then 'No Dividend' [1 p.88]. The stock dividends were 5%, 10%, 5%, 5.5%, 5%, 5% and 3.5%, which took paid-up capital from BDT 7,300m at Dec-2017 to BDT 10,658m at Dec-2024 [1 p.88] [7 p.83]. Cash dividends are not shown in that history, and we did not verify them for earlier years. For 2025 the bank declared no dividend, one of 11 listed banks to do so, The Financial Express reported on 3-May-2026 [13]. The same report says ten of those banks, including ONE Bank, went into the DSE's Z category; The Business Standard reported on 2-May-2026, citing DSE sources, that the banks were set to be moved to Z, and noted that Z-category shares settle on T+3 rather than T+2 and that margin loans on them are restricted [13] [14].
The Tk2,000 crore rule. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular 06 of 23 May 2026 says a bank with paid-up capital below Tk2,000 crore may not pay any cash dividend, and banks that qualify may pay at most 50% of a declared dividend in cash; it applies to dividends for the year ending 31 December 2026 and later [8 p.1]. ONE Bank's paid-up capital is Tk1,065.8 crore [2 p.7], so it is 46.7% short (1 - 1,065.8/2,000). Reaching the line needs paid-up capital 1.88 times today's, about 13 years of 5% stock dividends, or BDT 9.34bn of new capital, which is 39% of current reported equity [20]. Authorised capital is Tk1,850 crore and would also have to rise [1 p.88].
In practice the provision deferral is the nearer constraint: a bank that carries a deferred provision and a CRAR below 12.5% has little room to distribute anything, and the auditor's adjusted equity is negative [1 p.2] [1 p.3]. Retained earnings were BDT 4,572m at Dec-2025, smaller than the 2025 deficit by a factor of more than eight [1 p.19] [20].
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock dividend for the year | 5.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paid-up capital at year end (BDT mn) | 7,300 | 7,665 | 8,432 | 8,854 | 9,340 | 9,807 | 10,298 | 10,658 | 10,658 |
| EPS as reported (BDT) | 2.85 | 1.82 | 1.87 | 1.48 | 0.77 | 1.42 | 1.08 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| BDT mn | Value |
|---|---|
| Paid-up capital, Jun-2026 | 10,658 |
| BB threshold for any cash dividend | 20,000 |
| Authorised capital | 18,500 |
| FY2025 profit after tax | 217 |
| Equity, Jun-2026 | 23,768 |
| % short of Tk2,000 crore (1 - paid-up / 2,000 crore) | 46.7% |
| Shortfall to Tk2,000 crore | 9,342 |
| Paid-up must grow by (x) | 1.88 |
| Years of 5% stock dividends to reach it | 12.9 |
| Shortfall / equity | 39.3% |
| Authorised capital short of Tk2,000 crore | 1,500 |
From the Dividend rule tab of the model.
Peers: cost of fund 0.4-1.3pp higher and NPL about 15.7pp higher than NCC and Dhaka Bank
We compare ONE Bank with NCC Bank and Dhaka Bank, two listed private banks whose 2025 annual reports carry matching labels. All three report a 'cost of fund': ONE Bank 10.06%, Dhaka Bank 9.65% and NCC Bank 8.81% ('Cost of fund (COF)') [1 p.103] [10 p.64] [9 p.184]. ONE Bank pays 1.25pp more than NCC Bank and 0.41pp more than Dhaka Bank [20]. NCC Bank also reports a separate 'cost of deposits & borrowings' of 6.57%, which is a different measure and is not compared here [9 p.184].
On asset quality the gap is wide. ONE Bank's classified loans are 19.61% of loans, against NCC Bank's 'non performing loans as % of total loans' of 4.12% and Dhaka Bank's 'NPL to Total Loans and Advances (%)' of 3.77%, 15.7pp above their average [1 p.103] [9 p.183] [10 p.64] [20]. CRAR is 11.12% at ONE Bank, 13.39% at Dhaka Bank and 15.54% at NCC Bank, and neither peer reports a provision deferral on the pages we read [1 p.89] [10 p.64] [9 p.183]. On the dividend rule, NCC Bank's paid-up capital of Tk1,110.4 crore is 44.5% short, close to ONE Bank's 46.7% [9 p.183] [20]. NCC Bank's balance sheet, BDT 398.8bn of assets excluding contra items, is of similar size to ONE Bank's BDT 360.1bn [9 p.183] [1 p.19]; the quality of the books is not.
| Measure (label as printed) | ONEBANKPLC | NCCBANK | DHAKABANK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of fund ('Cost of fund' / 'Cost of fund (COF)' / 'Cost of Fund') | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% |
| Classified / non-performing loans as % of loans | 19.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| CRAR | 11.1% | 15.5% | 13.4% |
| Provision deferral disclosed | Yes, BDT 39.0bn | None seen | None seen |
| BDT mn | Value |
|---|---|
| ONEBANKPLC classified loans / total loans (Dec-2025) | 19.6% |
| NCCBANK 'Non performing loans as % of total loans' (Dec-2025) | 4.1% |
| DHAKABANK classified loan ratio (Dec-2025) | 3.8% |
| ONEBANKPLC CRAR (solo) | 11.1% |
| NCCBANK CRAR | 15.5% |
| DHAKABANK CRAR | 13.4% |
| ONEBANKPLC 'Cost of fund' | 10.1% |
| NCCBANK 'Cost of fund (COF)' | 8.8% |
| DHAKABANK 'Cost of Fund' | 9.7% |
| ONEBANKPLC paid-up (Tk crore) | 1,065.8 |
| NCCBANK paid-up (Tk crore, Dec-2025) | 1,110.4 |
| ONEBANKPLC NPL minus average of NCC and Dhaka (pp) | 15.7% |
| ONEBANKPLC cost of fund minus NCC cost of fund (pp) | 1.2% |
| ONEBANKPLC cost of fund minus Dhaka cost of fund (pp) | 0.4% |
| ONEBANKPLC % short of Tk2,000 crore | 46.7% |
| NCCBANK % short of Tk2,000 crore | 44.5% |
From the Peers tab of the model.
What's next: the FY2026 accounts and the deferral, the 2026 dividend rule, and LDC graduation in November 2029
These are the dated items that will move the lines, with direction only; no figures are forecast.
| Item | Date or window | Line it moves | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 results (EPS 0.11; 9M 0.88; NAV 23.10) | Announced 29-Oct-2026; full Q3 statements not yet in our corpus | All lines | [s12] |
| FY2026 audited accounts and the deferral | Expected around end-Apr-2027 (FY2025 accounts signed 30-Apr-2026) | Provisions, equity, CRAR | [s1] p.21 |
| SPCD C06: no cash dividend below Tk2,000 crore paid-up | Applies from the year ending 31-Dec-2026 | Shareholder cash returns | [s8] p.1 |
| HRC-linked premises leases | Kawran Bazar to 30-Jun-2028; Chattogram to 28-Feb-2029 (per 2024 note) | Rent, related-party exposure | [s3] p.102 |
| Credit rating | Rating expired 9-Mar-2026; no renewal disclosed as of 31-Oct-2026 | Funding cost | [s11] |
| LDC graduation moved | 24-Nov-2029 (UNGA decision 29-Oct-2026) | Export loans, trade fees | [s17] [s18] |
The FY2026 accounts. The 2025 accounts were signed on 30 April 2026, the same day as the BB letter permitting the deferral [1 p.21] [1 p.74]. The 2026 accounts will show whether the deferred amount grew again, as it did from BDT 17,975m to BDT 39,030m in 2025, and whether a recognition schedule is disclosed [1 p.103]. Provisions and equity are the lines at stake; capital ratios move with them.
The dividend rule. SPCD Circular 06 applies to dividends for the year ending 31 December 2026 [8 p.1]. With paid-up capital of Tk1,065.8 crore, ONE Bank cannot pay a cash dividend for 2026 under it whatever its profit [2 p.7]; a stock dividend would add shares but not cash, and the deferral and CRAR below 12.5% bear on that too [1 p.3].
LDC graduation. The UN General Assembly adopted on 29 October 2026 in New York (30 October in Dhaka) the move of Bangladesh's graduation from least-developed-country status from 24 November 2026 to 24 November 2029, The Daily Star and The Business Standard reported [17] [18]. For ONE Bank, whose two largest named industries are garments and textiles at BDT 65.2bn together, the later date delays the loss of trade preferences that would bear on these borrowers' export earnings [1 p.73].
Risks: recognition of the deferral matters most; SMA migration, deposit cost and capital follow
Each risk below is tied to the line it moves. Size them against 2025 pre-provision profit of BDT 4,638m and reported equity of BDT 23.4bn [20].
Rates and deposit costs. The interest lines depend on the direction of deposit and treasury-bill rates. In 2025 interest paid rose BDT 4,242m while interest income rose BDT 648m [20]; fixed deposits, 74% of deposits at Jun-2026, reprice as they mature [2 p.7] [20].
| Risk | Line it moves | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Recognition of the deferred provision | Provisions, equity, CRAR | BDT 39.0bn deferred; auditor's equity -BDT 10.25bn |
| SMA migration into classified | Provisions, interest suspense | SMA BDT 14.4bn, up from 4.5bn |
| Interest on loans kept unclassified | Interest income | Auditor: 'few hundred crore Taka' |
| Deposit costs stay above peers | Interest expense, NII | Cost of fund 10.06% vs 8.81-9.65% |
| Treasury yields fall | Investment income | 57% of 2025 operating income |
| Capital below 12.5% | Growth, distributions | CRAR 11.12%, CET-1 6.63% |
| Large-borrower concentration | Classified loans | 20 clients, BDT 80.4bn; limit breaches |
| Liquidity | Funding cost | 12-month gap BDT 8,204 crore |
| Deferred tax asset | Equity, tax charge | DTA deducted from CET-1 BDT 7.8bn |
| Z category, no dividend | Share liquidity | T+3 settlement, no margin (TBS) |
Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provisions / avg loans | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| ROA | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Key questions: the deferral, the classified trend, NII, capital and concentration
Key questions and the signposts that answer them
- Will the deferred provision shrink or grow? Signpost: the required-vs-maintained table and any recognition schedule in the FY2026 accounts.
- Is the classified ratio still rising? Signpost: SMA and sub-standard balances, which rose to BDT 14.4bn and 1.8bn in 2025.
- Can NII recover? Signpost: interest paid / interest income below 90% (89.8% in H1 2026) and the reported cost of fund.
- How will capital return to 12.5%? Signpost: any rights issue, new bond, or BB instruction disclosed with the accounts.
- How concentrated is the loan book? Signpost: the count and exposure of clients above 10% of capital (20 and BDT 80.4bn in 2025).
ONEBANKPLC at BDT 7.0 trades at 0.31x Jun-2026 reported solo NAV per share and 34x FY2025 EPS of BDT 0.20 [19] [2 p.7] [1 p.21]. Reported NAV excludes the deferred provision; on the auditor's basis NAV per share was minus BDT 9.62 at Dec-2025 [1 p.2]. These are facts about the price and the book, not a view on either.
The model
History
| BDT mn | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 14,923 | 21,028 | 23,352 | 19,661 | 15,987 | 16,176 | 18,858 | 24,394 | 25,042 |
| Interest paid on deposits and borrowings | 10,034 | 14,734 | 17,957 | 16,266 | 11,878 | 11,943 | 14,340 | 18,312 | 22,554 |
| Investment income | 2,238 | 1,886 | 1,874 | 2,710 | 2,051 | 2,638 | 3,125 | 5,827 | 6,698 |
| Commission, exchange and brokerage | 1,894 | 1,424 | 1,420 | 1,122 | 1,608 | 2,671 | 1,900 | 2,018 | 1,711 |
| Other operating income | 556 | 608 | 642 | 772 | 620 | 694 | 788 | 781 | 854 |
| Total operating expenses | 4,471 | 4,829 | 5,212 | 5,074 | 4,931 | 5,949 | 6,720 | 6,798 | 7,112 |
| Total provision | 1,760 | 3,043 | 1,568 | 1,183 | 2,003 | 2,237 | 2,049 | 7,300 | 6,465 |
| Provision for taxation (net of deferred tax) | 1,163 | 949 | 892 | 429 | 697 | 658 | 410 | -671 | -2,044 |
| Net profit after taxation | 2,181 | 1,393 | 1,660 | 1,313 | 756 | 1,392 | 1,152 | 1,280 | 217 |
| Total shareholders' equity | 14,109 | 14,392 | 16,052 | 16,947 | 17,474 | 18,380 | 22,717 | 23,550 | 23,367 |
| Deposits and other accounts | 182,675 | 202,631 | 228,091 | 229,485 | 230,659 | 226,060 | 241,819 | 251,199 | 273,498 |
| Loans and advances | 170,394 | 198,909 | 215,228 | 220,342 | 222,694 | 225,709 | 224,335 | 220,914 | 242,029 |
| Government securities | 21,350 | 23,026 | 28,491 | 25,356 | 31,624 | 29,007 | 33,934 | 45,180 | 47,438 |
| Total assets | 227,202 | 266,050 | 297,874 | 303,517 | 310,366 | 314,841 | 321,580 | 338,119 | 360,113 |
| Interest-earning assets | 201,175 | 237,993 | 250,653 | 258,135 | 255,882 | 251,542 | 258,678 | 261,010 | 270,159 |
| Classified loans and advances | 9,041 | 14,031 | 19,895 | 18,957 | 25,728 | 31,530 | 26,810 | 38,588 | 47,460 |
| Provision kept against classified loans | 4,334 | 5,509 | 7,331 | 8,143 | 8,430 | 10,651 | 10,264 | 13,938 | 15,906 |
| Provision surplus/(deficit), as reported | 0 | 0 | — | — | -9,384 | -10,244 | -6,410 | -17,974 | -39,030 |
| Classified loans / total loans (reported) | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| Cost of fund (reported) | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Total regulatory capital | 21,366 | 23,196 | 24,977 | 25,951 | 27,947 | 28,969 | 30,582 | 30,089 | 25,028 |
| Capital surplus over 10% minimum | 2,886 | 3,745 | 586 | 1,031 | 4,724 | 4,354 | 7,428 | 7,957 | 2,522 |
| Paid-up capital | 7,300 | 7,665 | 8,432 | 8,854 | 9,340 | 9,807 | 10,298 | 10,658 | 10,658 |
| Current and other accounts | 23,287 | 21,038 | 18,882 | 25,601 | 27,500 | 33,026 | 30,863 | 35,821 | 36,500 |
| Savings deposits | 17,626 | 17,869 | 21,377 | 26,768 | 31,887 | 31,570 | 31,514 | 31,364 | 35,016 |
| Fixed / term deposits | 139,785 | 162,153 | 185,459 | 174,554 | 168,438 | 158,832 | 178,061 | 181,893 | 200,494 |
| Borrowings from banks, FIs and agents | 14,423 | 29,902 | 21,634 | 21,323 | 19,745 | 20,539 | 10,511 | 11,073 | 9,976 |
| Subordinated and perpetual bonds | — | — | 7,640 | 6,900 | 9,250 | 12,800 | 12,540 | 13,450 | 11,480 |
| EPS (BDT, as reported) | 2.85 | 1.82 | 1.87 | 1.48 | 0.77 | 1.42 | 1.08 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Stock dividend for the year (% of par) | 5.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ratios | |||||||||
| Net interest income | 4,888 | 6,295 | 5,395 | 3,395 | 4,110 | 4,233 | 4,518 | 6,081 | 2,488 |
| Total operating income | 9,575 | 10,214 | 9,331 | 7,999 | 8,388 | 10,236 | 10,330 | 14,706 | 11,750 |
| Profit before provision and tax | 5,105 | 5,385 | 4,119 | 2,925 | 3,456 | 4,287 | 3,611 | 7,908 | 4,638 |
| Profit before tax | 3,345 | 2,342 | 2,551 | 1,742 | 1,453 | 2,049 | 1,562 | 609 | -1,827 |
| NII share of operating income | 51.0% | 61.6% | 57.8% | 42.4% | 49.0% | 41.4% | 43.7% | 41.3% | 21.2% |
| Investment income share of operating income | 23.4% | 18.5% | 20.1% | 33.9% | 24.5% | 25.8% | 30.2% | 39.6% | 57.0% |
| Fee and exchange share of operating income | 19.8% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 19.2% | 26.1% | 18.4% | 13.7% | 14.6% |
| Cost / income | 46.7% | 47.3% | 55.9% | 63.4% | 58.8% | 58.1% | 65.0% | 46.2% | 60.5% |
| Provisions / profit before provision | 34.5% | 56.5% | 38.1% | 40.5% | 58.0% | 52.2% | 56.8% | 92.3% | 139.4% |
| ROE (avg equity) | — | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 7.8% | — | 5.5% | 0.9% |
| ROA (avg assets) | — | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| NIM proxy (NII / avg interest-earning assets) | — | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| NII + investment income / avg interest-earning assets | — | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| Interest income / avg loans | — | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 10.8% |
| Interest expense / avg deposits | — | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% |
| Interest expense / interest income | 67.2% | 70.1% | 76.9% | 82.7% | 74.3% | 73.8% | 76.0% | 75.1% | 90.1% |
| Deposit growth | — | 10.9% | 12.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | -2.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 8.9% |
| Loan growth | — | 16.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | -0.6% | -1.5% | 9.6% |
| Loans / deposits | 93.3% | 98.2% | 94.4% | 96.0% | 96.5% | 99.8% | 92.8% | 87.9% | 88.5% |
| Current + savings / deposits | 22.4% | 19.2% | 17.7% | 22.8% | 25.7% | 28.6% | 25.8% | 26.7% | 26.1% |
| Fixed deposits / deposits | 76.5% | 80.0% | 81.3% | 76.1% | 73.0% | 70.3% | 73.6% | 72.4% | 73.3% |
| Government securities / total assets | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 13.2% |
| Classified loans / loans (computed) | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| Specific provision kept / classified loans | 47.9% | 39.3% | 36.8% | 43.0% | 32.8% | 33.8% | 38.3% | 36.1% | 33.5% |
| Provisions / avg loans | — | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Equity / total assets | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| Provision deficit / equity | — | — | — | — | 53.7% | 55.7% | 28.2% | 76.3% | 167.0% |
Half-years
| BDT mn | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Interest income | 12,648 | 12,915 |
| Interest paid on deposits and borrowings | 10,934 | 11,598 |
| Investment income | 3,441 | 3,027 |
| Commission, exchange and brokerage | 970 | 628 |
| Other operating income | 375 | 359 |
| Total operating expenses | 3,485 | 3,658 |
| Total provision | 1,703 | 862 |
| Provision for taxation | 440 | 145 |
| Net profit after taxation | 871 | 666 |
| Net interest income | 1,714 | 1,316 |
| Total operating income | 6,499 | 5,330 |
| Profit before provision and tax | 3,014 | 1,672 |
| Profit before tax | 1,311 | 811 |
| Interest expense / interest income | 86.5% | 89.8% |
| Investment income share of operating income | 52.9% | 56.8% |
| Cost / income | 53.6% | 68.6% |
| Change vs H1 2025: operating income | — | -18.0% |
| Change vs H1 2025: NII | — | -23.2% |
Balance sheet
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | Jun-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current and other accounts | 35,821 | 36,500 | 35,467 |
| Bills payable | 2,121 | 1,488 | 1,997 |
| Savings deposits | 31,364 | 35,016 | 36,290 |
| Fixed deposits | 181,893 | 200,494 | 215,380 |
| Borrowings from banks, FIs and agents | 11,073 | 9,976 | 13,913 |
| Subordinated and perpetual bonds | 13,450 | 11,480 | 11,200 |
| Loans and advances | 220,914 | 242,029 | 245,223 |
| Government securities | 45,180 | 47,438 | 59,641 |
| Total assets | 338,119 | 360,113 | 380,287 |
| Shareholders' equity | 23,550 | 23,367 | 23,768 |
| Deposits (sum of lines) | 251,199 | 273,498 | 289,134 |
| Current + savings / deposits | 26.7% | 26.1% | 24.8% |
| Fixed deposits / deposits | 72.4% | 73.3% | 74.5% |
| Loans / deposits | 87.9% | 88.5% | 84.8% |
| Government securities / total assets | 13.4% | 13.2% | 15.7% |
| Equity / total assets | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% |
| Deposit growth vs prior column | — | 8.9% | 5.7% |
| Loan growth vs prior column | — | 9.6% | 1.3% |
Asset quality
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | 176,994 | 179,166 |
| Special mention account | 4,483 | 14,392 |
| Staff loan | 849 | 1,012 |
| Sub-standard | 937 | 1,770 |
| Doubtful | 529 | 2,428 |
| Bad/loss | 37,122 | 43,262 |
| Specific provision maintained | 13,938 | 15,906 |
| Total provision required (loans + off-balance sheet) | — | 54,936 |
| Interest suspense | 11,343 | 12,734 |
| Written off during the year | 7,130 | 7,528 |
| Exposure of clients above 10% of capital | 43,503 | 80,379 |
| of which classified | 7,190 | 11,322 |
| Shareholders' equity | 23,550 | 23,367 |
| DTA adjustment if deferral were recognised (auditor) | — | 5,412 |
| Classified loans (SS + DF + BL) | 38,588 | 47,460 |
| Total loans | 220,914 | 242,029 |
| Classified / total loans | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| SMA / total loans | 2.0% | 5.9% |
| Classified + SMA / total loans | 19.5% | 25.6% |
| Bad/loss share of classified | 96.2% | 91.2% |
| Specific provision / classified | 36.1% | 33.5% |
| (Specific provision + interest suspense) / classified | 65.5% | 60.3% |
| Deferred provision (required - maintained) | — | 39,030 |
| Deferred provision / equity | — | 167.0% |
| Equity if deferral recognised (net of DTA), auditor basis | — | -10,251 |
| Write-off / opening classified | — | 19.5% |
Capital
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Common equity tier-1 | 17,694 | 14,928 |
| Additional tier-1 (perpetual bond) | 4,000 | 3,376 |
| Tier-2 capital | 8,395 | 6,724 |
| Risk-weighted assets | 221,314 | 225,059 |
| DTA deducted from CET-1 | 5,227 | 7,808 |
| Subordinated bond III outstanding | 1,680 | 280 |
| Subordinated bond IV outstanding | 4,000 | 3,200 |
| Subordinated bond V outstanding | 3,770 | 4,000 |
| Perpetual bond | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Subordinated bonds counted in tier-2 | 7,290 | 6,100 |
| Remaining part of perpetual bond in tier-2 | 0 | 624 |
| Total capital | 30,089 | 25,028 |
| CRAR | 13.6% | 11.1% |
| CET-1 ratio | 8.0% | 6.6% |
| Tier-1 ratio | 9.8% | 8.1% |
| Shortfall to 12.5% (minimum plus buffer) | — | 3,105 |
| Bonds outstanding | 13,450 | 11,480 |
| Capital credit from bonds (AT1 + tier-2 bonds) | 11,290 | 10,100 |
| Bond capital credit / total capital | 37.5% | 40.4% |
Dividend rule
| BDT mn | Value |
|---|---|
| Paid-up capital, Jun-2026 | 10,658 |
| BB threshold for any cash dividend | 20,000 |
| Authorised capital | 18,500 |
| FY2025 profit after tax | 217 |
| Equity, Jun-2026 | 23,768 |
| % short of Tk2,000 crore (1 - paid-up / 2,000 crore) | 46.7% |
| Shortfall to Tk2,000 crore | 9,342 |
| Paid-up must grow by (x) | 1.88 |
| Years of 5% stock dividends to reach it | 12.9 |
| Shortfall / equity | 39.3% |
| Authorised capital short of Tk2,000 crore | 1,500 |
Peers
| BDT mn | Value |
|---|---|
| ONEBANKPLC classified loans / total loans (Dec-2025) | 19.6% |
| NCCBANK 'Non performing loans as % of total loans' (Dec-2025) | 4.1% |
| DHAKABANK classified loan ratio (Dec-2025) | 3.8% |
| ONEBANKPLC CRAR (solo) | 11.1% |
| NCCBANK CRAR | 15.5% |
| DHAKABANK CRAR | 13.4% |
| ONEBANKPLC 'Cost of fund' | 10.1% |
| NCCBANK 'Cost of fund (COF)' | 8.8% |
| DHAKABANK 'Cost of Fund' | 9.7% |
| ONEBANKPLC paid-up (Tk crore) | 1,065.8 |
| NCCBANK paid-up (Tk crore, Dec-2025) | 1,110.4 |
| ONEBANKPLC NPL minus average of NCC and Dhaka (pp) | 15.7% |
| ONEBANKPLC cost of fund minus NCC cost of fund (pp) | 1.2% |
| ONEBANKPLC cost of fund minus Dhaka cost of fund (pp) | 0.4% |
| ONEBANKPLC % short of Tk2,000 crore | 46.7% |
| NCCBANK % short of Tk2,000 crore | 44.5% |
FAQ
- What is ONE Bank's NPL ratio?
- Classified loans were 19.61% of loans at 31-Dec-2025 (BDT 47.5bn), up from 17.47% a year earlier and 5.31% in 2017 [1 p.103] [7 p.83].
- Does ONE Bank have a provision shortfall or BB deferral?
- Yes. Required provision was BDT 54.9bn; the bank kept BDT 15.9bn and Bangladesh Bank allowed it to defer BDT 39.0bn (Tk3,903 crore) by letter of 30-Apr-2026 [1 p.74].
- What would equity be without the deferral?
- Minus BDT 1,025.15 crore, net of BDT 541.16 crore of deferred tax, according to the auditor [1 p.2].
- What is ONE Bank's capital adequacy?
- Solo CRAR 11.12%, CET-1 6.63% and tier-1 8.13% at Dec-2025, below the 12.5% minimum plus buffer [1 p.89] [1 p.3].
- Did ONE Bank pay a dividend for 2025?
- No. It declared none for 2024 or 2025, and The Financial Express reported on 3-May-2026 that it was moved to the Z category [1 p.88] [13].
- Can ONE Bank pay a cash dividend for 2026?
- Not under SPCD Circular 06 while paid-up capital (Tk1,065.8 crore) is below Tk2,000 crore; it is 46.7% short [8 p.1] [2 p.7].
- Which results does this report use?
- Solo annual figures 2017-2025 and the unaudited H1 2026 statements. Q3 2026 figures are from the DSE announcement; the Q3 statements are not yet in our corpus.
Sources
- ONE Bank PLC audited financial statements 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025), incl. auditor's report · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- ONE Bank PLC un-audited financial statements, six months to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- ONE Bank PLC audited financial statements 2024 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- ONE Bank PLC audited financial statements 2023 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- ONE Bank Limited audited financial statements 2022 (with 2021 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- ONE Bank Limited audited financial statements 2020 (with 2019 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- ONE Bank Limited audited financial statements 2018 (with 2017 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- National Credit and Commerce Bank PLC Annual Report 2025, five-year data (peer) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Dhaka Bank PLC Annual Report 2025, five-year data (peer) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- ONE Bank PLC credit rating disclosure (ECRL, based on 2024 accounts) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- DSE announcements via AnalystBro events: board meetings and results (Q1-Q3 2026), spot-market dates · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Financial Express, '11 listed banks declare no dividend' (3-May-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Ten more banks set to slide into Z category after dividend failure' (2-May-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Central bank removes One Bank chairman' (6-Jul-2020) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Prothom Alo English, 'BB removes One Bank chairman' (6-Jul-2020) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years before LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:ONEBANKPLC weekly bars to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
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