Pubali Bank valuation report: fair value BDT 16.8–39.3 (Oct 2026)

Pubali Bank: fair value range BDT 17–39; bonds earned about BDT 12.3bn net of funding in FY2025 against 32bn from lending

Fair value range BDT 17–39 (base 30); the price of 42.9 is above the range. Deposits grew 21% in nine months and went into government bonds; yields on those bonds, rescheduled loans and the Tk2,000 crore cash-dividend rule decide value.

Company · Initiation · 31 Oct 2026 · FY2025 annual + 9M 2026 (to 30-Sep-2026) · By AnalystBro Team · 16 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Fair value range
৳17–39
Base ৳30 · price above the range · probability-weighted ৳29
Price ৳42.90
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Bear ৳17Base ৳30Bull ৳39Price ৳42.90

Residual income on adjusted book 75% (Ke 15.8%, normalised ROE_s 12.0%, g 7%) · peer median P/B 0.77x on standalone adjusted book 10% · P/E 4.5x on normalised EPS 15%

  • Residual income (75%)৳22
  • Peer median P/B (10%)৳4
  • P/E on normalised EPS (15%)৳4
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 42.9
52-week range (weekly, adjusted for the 20% stock dividend)BDT 22.2–43.7
Market capBDT 67.0bn
Shares outstanding1,561.7mn
Directors / institutions / general public (Dec-25)28.20% / 27.99% / 43.81%
Year end / last filing31 Dec / 9M 2026 (30-Sep-2026)
P/B (standalone book, Sep-26)0.76x on BDT 56.78
P/E on FY2026F / FY2027F EPS3.4x / 4.7x
9M 2026 EPS (standalone)BDT 10.06 (9M 2025: 5.72 restated)
Gross NPL (Sep-26 / Dec-25)2.47% / 2.20%
Rescheduled loans / total loans (Dec-25)14.84% (bank's appetite limit 12%)
Special mention loans (Sep-26 / Dec-25)BDT 60.9bn / 37.4bn
CRAR / Tier-1 (Dec-25, standalone)15.34% / 9.69% vs 12.5% minimum
Loans / deposits (Sep-26)69.5%
Current + savings deposits / deposits (Sep-26)30.2%
Investments (Sep-26 / Dec-25)BDT 484bn / 300bn
Beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX, Blume-adjusted)0.81 raw / 0.88
Dividend FY202510% cash + 20% stock (AGM 16-Jun-2026)
Cash dividend from FY2026Barred until paid-up capital reaches Tk2,000 crore (now Tk1,562 crore; BB SPCD circular 06, 23-May-2026)
Authorised capitalTk2,000 crore; Tk4,000 crore approved at the EGM of 25-Oct-2026, BB approval pending
Credit rating (CRISL)AAA long term / ST-1 short term (Jun-2026)
Estimates
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net interest income (as reported)15,0829,4961,382-9,626-9,162
Investment income (gross)20,19135,03853,03064,90167,565
Net treasury income (investment income - treasury interest)14,03327,98443,24751,15155,053
Total operating income41,81851,66062,52164,19568,099
Profit before provisions22,56028,68636,83235,16735,878
Total provisions9,4558,7157,41412,01911,304
Net profit after tax7,62510,79519,68914,35215,236
EPS (BDT, on 1,561.7mn shares)4.886.9112.619.199.76
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)0.930.830.000.000.00
Book value per share (BDT)33.6844.5759.3268.5178.27
ROE (NPAT / avg equity)15.3%17.7%24.3%14.4%13.3%
Gross NPL ratio4.4%2.2%3.0%4.5%5.5%
CRAR13.8%15.3%16.4%16.7%16.8%
P/E at 42.9—6.2x3.4x4.7x4.4x
P/B at 42.9—1.0x0.7x0.6x0.5x

Fair value BDT 17–39, base 30: the price of 42.9 assumes a 15% sustainable ROE against our 12%

We put Pubali Bank's fair value at BDT 17–39, base 30 (probability-weighted 29.2), against a price of 42.9. Standalone net profit rose 42% to BDT 10.8bn in FY2025 [1 p.367] and 76% to BDT 15.7bn in the nine months to September 2026, an EPS of 10.06 against 5.72 [2 p.8]. Almost all of that growth came from government securities. Deposits rose 21.3% in nine months to BDT 1,086bn while loans rose 6.2% [2 p.6], and investments grew from BDT 300bn to 484bn. Investment income rose 53% to BDT 36.9bn, while reported net interest income fell to BDT 3.7bn and turned negative in the third quarter (minus 1.5bn) [2 p.8].

Reported NII understates the lending business and overstates treasury, because Pubali books bond premium amortisation and HFT, HTM and repo costs inside interest expense (BDT 7.1bn in FY2025, 6.1bn in 9M 2026) [s1 p.462; s2 p.18]. Netting those costs against investment income, and charging the bond book its share of deposit cost, treasury contributed about BDT 12.3bn in FY2025 (24% of operating income) against about 32.2bn from lending [15]. That matched measure is the one we use throughout; before charging funding cost, net treasury income was 28.0bn (54%), which overstates treasury. The bank bought bonds in 2025 when yields were above 12%; with the 10-year T-bond now at 9.27% [8] the carry will narrow as holdings roll.

Our forecast has EPS of BDT 12.61 in FY2026F, falling to 9.19 in FY2027F and 9.76 in FY2028F as the gross investment yield falls from 13.0% (Q4 2026, annualised) to 10.8% and credit cost rises to 1.5%. ROE falls from 24.3% in FY2026F to 13.3%, also because no cash dividend can be paid while paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore, so book grows faster than profit. For the long run we reset the net treasury yield to the T-bond less 1pp and hold credit cost at 1.30% (FY2025 level, above the FY2022–25 average of 1.06%); normalised ROE is 12.0%. On the same NPAT-over-average-equity basis, FY2022–25 ROE was 13.0%, 15.2%, 15.3% and 17.7% (median 15.3%) [s15 on s1 p.367]: we are below that whole range because the zero-payout years leave more equity earning bond yields, bond yields fall back and credit cost stays higher. Against a cost of equity of 15.8% that justifies 0.57x adjusted book.

The price implies a sustainable ROE of about 14.7%, slightly below the FY2022–25 average-equity median of 15.3%: the market is paying for close to the recent history continuing, not for the 9M 2026 peak (annualised ROE above 20%). The price of 42.9 is above our range. We rate uncertainty High. A 1pp higher deposit cost from FY2027 takes base value to BDT 8.1; a 2pp lower investment yield to 8.9. The stock rose 120% in two years against 3% for the DSEX [7]. The latest period in this report is the nine months to 30 September 2026.

Model update

  • This model will be updated when Pubali files its FY2026 audited statements (expected by April 2027), which will also give the first 2026 loan classification, capital ratios and the dividend decision under the new rule.
Exhibit 1PUBALIBANK rose 120% in two years while the DSEX rose 3%
Index, Oct-2024 = 100
050.0100150200250Oct-24Jan-25Mar-25 (2)Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26May-26Aug-26
PUBALIBANKDSEX
Data
Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Mar-25 (2)Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Mar-26 (2)Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26Sep-26Oct-26
PUBALIBANK100.00111.10109.10117.90116.30116.30111.10111.90111.10116.50133.90133.50129.90126.30131.30135.70165.10174.10166.10163.40170.90179.70184.80197.10195.60196.10220.20
DSEX100.00101.9097.1098.8098.5099.0099.0093.2089.6096.40102.90106.80103.0097.4095.6092.9097.00104.00101.80100.0099.80105.00110.40111.50107.70105.20103.00
Source: DSE weekly closes via AnalystBro [7]; rebased to 100 in Oct-2024; adjusted for stock dividends · A DSE bank index series was not available in our data; the DSEX is used instead
Exhibit 2We forecast EPS of BDT 12.61 in FY2026F, easing to 9.76 in FY2028F as bond yields fall
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net interest income (as reported)15,0829,4961,382-9,626-9,162
Investment income (gross)20,19135,03853,03064,90167,565
Net treasury income (investment income - treasury interest)14,03327,98443,24751,15155,053
Total operating income41,81851,66062,52164,19568,099
Profit before provisions22,56028,68636,83235,16735,878
Total provisions9,4558,7157,41412,01911,304
Net profit after tax7,62510,79519,68914,35215,236
EPS (BDT, on 1,561.7mn shares)4.886.9112.619.199.76
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)0.930.830.000.000.00
Book value per share (BDT)33.6844.5759.3268.5178.27
ROE (NPAT / avg equity)15.3%17.7%24.3%14.4%13.3%
Gross NPL ratio4.4%2.2%3.0%4.5%5.5%
CRAR13.8%15.3%16.4%16.7%16.8%
P/E at 42.9—6.2x3.4x4.7x4.4x
P/B at 42.9—1.0x0.7x0.6x0.5x
Source: AnalystBro model [15]; FY2024–25 standalone actuals [s1 p.367, p.462]
Exhibit 3The scenario range runs from BDT 17 to 39; the price of 42.9 is above the range
10.020.030.040.050.060.0Residual income (75%)14.039.3Peer median P/B (10%)36.048.7P/E 4.0-5.0x on normalised EPS (15%)18.232.7Blended fair value16.839.352-week range22.243.7Price 42.9Base 30
Data
LowHigh
Residual income (75%)14.039.3
Peer median P/B (10%)36.048.7
P/E 4.0-5.0x on normalised EPS (15%)18.232.7
Blended fair value16.839.3
52-week range22.243.7
Source: AnalystBro model [15] · Bars: low and high of each method across the bear and bull cases; blend 75% residual income, 10% peer median P/B, 15% P/E

Bulls say

  • Deposits grew 22.6% in the year to June 2026 against 10.7% for the system: depositors are moving to perceived-safe private banks, and Pubali is one of them.
  • Bonds bought at 12%+ yields lock in carry for years; 9M 2026 net treasury income was BDT 30.9bn.
  • CRAR rises on our numbers from 15.34% to above 16% as all profit is retained.

Bears say

  • Rescheduled loans were 14.84% of the book at end-2025, special mention loans rose 63% in nine months and interest suspense rose to BDT 23.8bn: the 2.47% NPL ratio understates stress.
  • The bank borrows short at 5–6% to hold long bonds: a 1pp rise in deposit cost removes about half of FY2027F profit.
  • No cash dividend until paid-up capital reaches Tk2,000 crore; the route is stock dividends or a rights issue.

What would change our view

  • Up: deposit costs falling with T-bill yields (system deposit rate below 6%), or FY2026 classification showing rescheduled loans performing.
  • Down: SMA loans moving into classified in the FY2026 audit, or a rights issue priced at par that earns bond yields.

Pubali is a BDT 1.43 trillion branch-led bank with 517 branches; its Islamic window earns 10% of profit and its one subsidiary about 1%

Pubali Bank is one of Bangladesh's largest private commercial banks by branch network: 517 branches, 274 sub-branches and 10,819 staff at end-2025 [1 p.369]. It makes money in three ways. First, lending: BDT 755bn of loans at September 2026, mostly overdrafts, cash credit, term loans and trade finance for corporate and SME borrowers, earning 9.5% on our measure [s2 p.6, p.18]. Twenty-one groups each borrow more than 10% of regulatory capital, together BDT 244bn, 34% of the book [1 p.442]. Second, treasury: BDT 465bn of government bills and bonds at September 2026, up from 283bn at December [2 p.12], funded by a deposit base that grew far faster than lending demand. Third, fees: BDT 5.0bn of commission and exchange income in FY2025 from L/Cs, guarantees, acceptances and FX on BDT 473bn of imports, 387bn of exports and 114bn of remittances [s1 p.368, p.462], plus card, online and account fees.

What is changing: the bank is buying a 26-storey head office (Swiss Tower, Tejgaon) for BDT 800 crore, subject to Bangladesh Bank approval (board decision 22-Jul-2026) [5]; we add BDT 8bn to fixed assets in FY2027; rent saved on the current head office is not disclosed and is excluded. The board also approved a US$100mn five-year green bond (March 2026) and raised Tier-2 capital through a BDT 5bn 5th subordinated bond (BSEC consent September 2025) [5]; we assume neither in the base case. Shareholders approved doubling authorised capital to Tk4,000 crore on 25 October 2026 [s5; s12], which opens the way to a rights issue or larger stock dividends (capital section).

Islamic window. Pubali runs an Islamic banking wing inside the bank. In FY2025 it earned BDT 7.96bn of investment income and paid 5.82bn to mudaraba depositors, a pre-tax profit of BDT 1.91bn and net profit of 1.10bn, about 10% of bank profit [1 p.483]; its assets were BDT 89.6bn, 7.6% of the bank [1 p.375]. Unlike some peers' windows, it is profitable and grew (FY2024 net profit 0.50bn), so we keep it inside the bank-wide drivers without a separate scenario. The 2026 interims do not report the window separately.

Subsidiary. Pubali Bank Securities Ltd (brokerage) is the only subsidiary: equity investment BDT 6.6bn [1 p.481], and FY2025 consolidated profit of BDT 10.90bn against 10.80bn solo [1 p.467], so it adds about 1% of profit. It is not significant under our rule (below 10% of profit, assets and value; not listed), so we value the bank on standalone figures with the subsidiary at book. Sum of the parts does not apply.

Exhibit 4After charging bonds their funding cost, lending earned about BDT 32bn in FY2025 and treasury 12.3bn
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Interest income on loans and balances58,39566,93170,29172,91477,387
Interest on deposits and borrowings37,15550,38159,12668,78974,037
Lending NII before moving the bond book's deposit cost to treasury21,24016,55011,1654,1253,350
Investment income (gross)20,19135,03853,03064,90167,565
Treasury interest expense (premium amortisation, HFT/HTM, repo)6,1587,0549,78213,75012,512
Net treasury income before funding cost14,03327,98443,24751,15155,053
Deposit cost of the bond book9,80615,65223,63031,42134,783
Treasury after funding cost4,22712,33219,61719,73020,270
Lending NII after funding cost31,04632,20234,79535,54638,133
Net treasury income before funding cost / total operating income33.6%54.2%69.2%79.7%80.8%
Treasury after funding cost / total operating income10.1%23.9%31.4%30.7%29.8%
Fees and other income6,5457,1268,1098,9209,696
Source: AR 2025 p.367, p.462 [1]; AnalystBro model [15] · The matched rows (after funding cost) are like for like; the before-funding rows charge all deposit cost to lending

Deposits grew 22.6% in the year to June 2026 against 10.7% for the system; loans 12.9% against 4.3%

Bangladesh's banking system grew deposits 10.7% and loans only 4.3% in the year to June 2026 (Scheduled Banks Statistics, Table 102 [9]). Private credit is weak, and depositors moved from troubled and merged banks toward banks seen as safe. Pubali gained share on both sides: deposits rose from BDT 807bn to 989bn (+22.6%) and loans from 653bn to 737bn (+12.9%) over the same twelve months [s4 p.6; s3 p.6]. The pace continued: deposits added another BDT 97bn in the third quarter alone, to BDT 1,086bn [2 p.6].

The new money is not cheap. Current and savings deposits were 30.2% of deposits at September 2026 (30.0% at December) [s2 p.6; s1 p.481]; the rest is term deposits and schemes. Interest on deposits and borrowings ran at 5.98% of average deposits in Q3 2026, up from 5.73% for the nine months [s2 p.18; s15], against a system weighted-average deposit rate of 6.21% [9]. Loans to deposits fell to 69.5%, so most new deposits went into bonds. We forecast deposits +12% and +11% in FY2027–28F, about the system rate plus the bank's recent share gain fading, and loans +8% and +9%, ahead of the system as policy rates fall.

Exhibit 5Pubali grew deposits twice as fast as the system in the year to June 2026
Jun-2025Jun-2026Growth
Pubali deposits (BDT bn)807.0989.00.2
Pubali loans (BDT bn)652.6736.90.1
System deposits (BDT '000 crore)1,996.62,210.40.1
System loans (BDT '000 crore)1,734.21,808.70.0
Source: Pubali interims [s4 p.6; s3 p.6]; Bangladesh Bank SBS Table 102 [9] · Growth column is a ratio (0.226 = 22.6%)
Exhibit 6We forecast deposits of BDT 1391bn and loans of 907bn by FY2028F
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Deposits745,232895,1951,118,8921,253,1591,391,007
Loans and advances629,254711,406770,438832,073906,959
Investments209,197300,433504,520578,955663,289
Loans / deposits84.4%79.5%68.9%66.4%65.2%
Deposit and borrowing cost / avg deposits5.5%6.1%5.9%5.8%5.6%
Source: AnalystBro model [15]; actuals AR 2025 p.367 [1]

Core NIM peaks at 4.8% in FY2025 and falls to 3.9% by FY2028F as 12% bonds roll off

Because Pubali books bond costs in interest expense, the reported NIM (0.95% on earning assets in FY2025 [1 p.368]) is not comparable with peers. We use core NIM, NII plus investment income over average loans and investments, which does not depend on where treasury costs are booked: 4.6% in FY2024 and 4.8% in FY2025 [15]. Its two halves move differently. The loan yield was 10.0% in FY2025 and 9.5% annualised in 9M 2026, and the deposit and borrowing cost 6.1% and 5.7%; the lending spread is about 3.6–3.8pp [s2 p.8, p.18; s15]. The gross investment yield was 13.8% in FY2025, including BDT 6.0bn of gains on bills and bonds [1 p.462], and 11.0% net of the treasury interest line.

Treasury drivers. Interest on treasury bonds alone was BDT 27.6bn in 9M 2026, against 17.7bn a year earlier, and gains on bills and bonds 4.3bn [2 p.18]. In Q3 2026 investment income was BDT 16.2bn, of which about 2.2bn were gains, against 11.3bn in Q2 [s2 p.18; s3 p.18]. T-bill cut-offs are now 8.6–8.8% and the 10-year bond 9.27% [8], so new purchases earn 3–4pp less than the 2025 book. We take the gross investment yield from 13.0% in Q4 2026 to 11.8% in FY2027F and 10.8% in FY2028F, with the treasury interest line falling from 3.0% to 2.0% of investments as premium bonds amortise. Net treasury income still rises to BDT 55.1bn because the book grows.

Deposit cost. We take the deposit and borrowing cost from 6.0% (Q4 2026) to 5.6% in FY2028F as policy rates fall; the system deposit rate eased only 0.10pp in a year [9], which is why we let deposit costs follow only 30% of a fall in bond yields in the long run. Fees. Commission, exchange and brokerage grew 19.5% in 9M 2026 to BDT 4.2bn, with L/C acceptance and guarantee fees leading [2 p.18]; we forecast +10% and +9% for FY2027–28F with trade volumes. Other operating income (cards, online and account fees) grew 33.7% [2 p.19]. Costs. Operating expenses grew 16.5% in 9M 2026 [2 p.8]; we forecast +13% and +11%, including depreciation on the new head office, so cost-to-income rises from 44.5% to 47.3%.

Exhibit 7A 1pp lower investment yield with unchanged deposit cost cuts FY2027F EPS to BDT 7.01 from 9.19
Investment yield \ deposit cost (FY27–28F)-1.0pp-0.5pp+0.0pp+0.5pp+1.0pp
-2.0pp9.537.184.822.470.11
-1.0pp11.719.367.014.652.30
+0.0pp13.9011.549.196.844.48
+1.0pp16.0813.7311.379.026.66
+2.0pp18.2715.9113.5611.208.85
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [15] · FY2027F EPS in BDT
Exhibit 8Quarterly profit tripled in Q3 2026 on bond income and a provision write-back
BDT mn1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q264Q26F
Total operating income11,99813,49112,23813,93313,90616,08116,57115,963
Investment income7,2578,3218,60110,8599,43811,34516,15516,092
Total provisions2,8812,9603,034-1602,6483,638-1,6682,796
Net profit after tax1,7683,8913,2721,8642,1754,5898,9483,977
Source: Pubali interims [s3 p.8; s2 p.8; s4 p.8]; AR 2025 [1 p.367]; 4Q26F from the model [15] · 1Q figures = half year less 2Q; 4Q25 = full year less nine months

Gross NPL is only 2.47%, but rescheduled loans are 14.84% of the book and special mention loans rose to BDT 60.9bn

Pubali's headline asset quality is good for Bangladesh: gross NPL 2.20% at end-2025, down from 4.36%, and 2.47% at September 2026 (BDT 18.6bn) [s1 p.368; s2 p.13], against a system NPL ratio of 30.6% at December 2025 cited in the annual report [1 p.90]. The fall in 2025 came from BDT 6.9bn of write-offs and from rescheduling: the bank kept a BDT 6.5bn general provision on loans rescheduled under BRPD circular 07/2025 and 2.9bn on loans rescheduled through Bangladesh Bank's policy-support committee [1 p.443]. Rescheduled loans were 14.84% of total loans at end-2025, above the bank's own 12% appetite limit [1 p.168].

Three signs point to more stress than the NPL ratio shows. Special mention (overdue but not classified) loans rose from BDT 9.9bn at end-2024 to 37.4bn at end-2025 and 60.9bn at September 2026 [s1 p.442; s2 p.13]. Interest suspense, interest booked on stressed and rescheduled loans but not taken to income, rose from BDT 10.4bn to 16.3bn in 2025 and 23.8bn at September 2026 [s1 p.469; s2 p.15]. And provisions swung to a BDT 1.7bn write-back in Q3 2026 [2 p.8]. Specific provisions cover 75% of classified loans at September 2026, and total provisions met the requirement (excess BDT 10mn) [s2 p.13, p.15].

The base case carries this stress. (1) Credit cost rises from the 0.9% 9M 2026 run-rate to 1.3%, 1.5% and 1.3% in FY2026–28F, at or above the FY2022–25 average (1.06%) and the FY2025 level (1.30%), and the long-run level stays at 1.30%. (2) NPL migrates from special mention and rescheduled loans: about a quarter of September SMA (BDT 60.9bn, 8.1% of loans) plus some rescheduled loans becoming classified takes NPL to 4.5% in FY2027F and 5.5% in FY2028F. (3) Each loss is counted once. The adjusted book deducts only the existing stock: half of net NPL at end-2025 (BDT 0.7bn). Future migration from special mention and rescheduled loans is charged through the forecast provisions above and the 1.30% long-run credit cost, not deducted again from book; rescheduled loans already carry BDT 9.4bn of general provision [1 p.443]. The bear case has 1.7% credit cost and 6.5% NPL. If 10% of loans became classified with a 100% haircut and 3% credit cost in FY2027, fair value would be BDT 22.4 (risks table).

Exhibit 9Special mention loans rose six-fold in 21 months while the NPL ratio stayed near 2–2.5%
BDT mnDec-2024Dec-2025Sep-2026
Classified loans (NPL)27,40815,64418,625
NPL ratio4.4%2.2%2.5%
Special mention loans9,86537,43460,909
Interest suspense10,39116,34223,757
Specific provision held21,03214,27814,008
General provision held9,38919,37918,774
Written off in the year3,9346,885—
Source: AR 2025 p.368, p.442–443, p.469 [1]; 9M 2026 p.13, p.15 [2]
Exhibit 10A 100% haircut on net NPL instead of 50% lowers base value by BDT 0.5
h \ credit cost (FY27–28F)-1.0pp-0.5pp+0.0pp+0.5pp+1.0pp
h 50%41.635.930.324.719.2
h 75%41.335.730.024.518.9
h 100%41.135.429.824.218.7
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [15] · BDT per share

Paid-up capital of Tk1,562 crore bars cash dividends from FY2026; reaching Tk2,000 crore needs 28% more shares

Pubali's CRAR was 15.34% at end-2025 (Tier-1 9.69%) against a 12.5% requirement including the buffer, a surplus of BDT 31.9bn [1 p.367]. Bonds carry no risk weight, so risk-weighted assets track loans (84% of loans for three years), and the bond carry adds capital without consuming it. With all profit retained our CRAR rises to 16.4% in FY2026F and 16.8% in FY2028F [15]. The 2026 interims do not disclose capital ratios.

The dividend rule. Bangladesh Bank's SPCD Circular No. 06 of 23 May 2026 says a bank whose paid-up capital is below Tk2,000 crore may not pay any cash dividend; banks that qualify may pay at most 50% of their total declared dividend in cash. It applies to dividends for the year ending 31 December 2026 and later, and the earlier conditions of DOS Circular No. 01 of 13 March 2025 remain in force [6]. The Daily Star named Pubali among the banks below the line [s11; s10]. Pubali's paid-up capital is Tk1,562 crore (15,617mn) after the 20% stock dividend for FY2025 [2 p.6]. For FY2025 the board had proposed 15% cash and 15% stock, and the AGM of 16 June 2026 changed it to 10% cash and 20% stock [5], which moved paid-up capital closer to the threshold.

Our base case retains all profit. Cash payout is zero in FY2026–28F. After the threshold is met we assume a 30% cash payout in the terminal period (the FY2021–25 cash average was 12.5% of face, about a third of profit [1 p.369]); the bear case uses 50%. With 0% forever, base value would be BDT 30.3; with 50%, 32.1. At the old 12% cash payout in FY2026–28F it would be 32.2: retained profit earns roughly the 12% normalised ROE, below the 15.8% cost of equity, so holding it back costs value. There are two routes to the threshold. Both need authorised capital above the current Tk2,000 crore: shareholders approved Tk4,000 crore at the EGM of 25 October 2026, but Bangladesh Bank has still to approve it [s5; s12].

Route (a): stock dividends. About 28% of cumulative bonus shares are needed; for example 15% for FY2026 and 12% for FY2027 would take paid-up capital to Tk2,011 crore, so cash could resume (at most half the total dividend) from the FY2028 declaration. A stock dividend changes no value: base value per post-bonus share would be BDT 23.5, the same total as 30.3 today. Route (b): a rights issue. Raising the gap at Tk10 par means about 438mn new shares (roughly one for every 3.6 held), BDT 4.4bn. United Commercial Bank's 1R:2 rights issue at Tk10, approved by BSEC in July 2026, is the recent precedent [s13; s14]. We value the proceeds at our justified P/B of 0.57x, since new equity parked in bonds earns below the cost of equity: base value per post-rights share would be BDT 24.9, and a holder who subscribes would be 1.2 a share worse off than today's 30.3. It would cut FY2027F ROE from 14.4% to 14.0% and lift CRAR from 16.7% to 17.3%. The theoretical ex-rights price at today's 42.9 would be 35.7.

Exhibit 11Both routes reach Tk2,000 crore; a par rights issue lowers base value per share to BDT 24.9
BDT mn unless statedFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Paid-up capital now (BDT mn)15,617.2——
Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn)20,000——
Gap to threshold (BDT mn)4,382.8——
Cumulative stock dividend needed28.1%——
Route (a): stock dividends (no cash) - assumed 15% / 12% / 0% for FY2026-28 (judgement; paid in the following year)
Stock dividend rate15.0%12.0%0.0%
Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year17,96020,11520,115
Shares after (mn)1,796.02,011.52,011.5
EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)10.967.147.57
Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares)26.3223.5023.50
Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap in FY2027 (assumption on price; UCB precedent 1R:2 at Tk10)
New shares (mn)438.3——
Proceeds (BDT mn)4,383——
Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT)24.88——
Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT)-1.20——
Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 42.9 (BDT)35.69——
FY2027F ROE with proceeds invested at the FY2027F net treasury yield after tax14.0%——
FY2027F ROE without the rights issue14.4%——
FY2027F CRAR with the proceeds17.3%——
FY2027F CRAR without (all profit retained)16.7%——
Illustrative FY2027F cash DPS after the rights: 30% total payout, half cash, on 2,000mn shares1.08——
Its yield on the ex-rights price3.0%——

From the Dividend rule tab of the model.

Source: Dividend rule sheet, AnalystBro model [15]; SPCD circular 06 [6]
Exhibit 12CRAR rises to 16.8% by FY2028F with all profit retained
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Risk-weighted assets526,618596,618647,168698,941761,846
Tier-1 capital47,52757,83574,11885,59997,788
Total regulatory capital72,51691,541106,118116,599127,788
CRAR13.8%15.3%16.4%16.7%16.8%
Capital above 12.5%6,68916,96425,22229,23232,557
Cash dividend declared1,4461,301000
Source: AnalystBro model [15]; actuals AR 2025 p.367 [1]

Governance: the auditors (G. Kibria & Co. and Hussain Farhad & Co.) gave an unmodified FY2025 opinion with an emphasis of matter on preparing the accounts under Bangladesh Bank loan-classification and provisioning rules, and named loan provisioning, rescheduling and write-offs as a key audit matter [s1 p.383–384]. CRISL rates the bank AAA / ST-1 [5]. Directors held 28.20% of shares at end-2025 [1 p.364]; a company connected to a director bought 5.35mn shares in September–October 2026 [5].

We forecast net profit of BDT 19.7bn in FY2026F, falling to 14.4bn in FY2027F as bond yields and credit cost normalise

FY2026F is the nine-month actual plus a forecast fourth quarter of BDT 4.0bn, below Q3's 8.9bn, which included gains and a provision write-back. FY2027F profit falls to BDT 14.4bn: net treasury income still grows, but lending NII shrinks as deposits grow faster than loans at a 5.8% cost, provisions rise to 1.5% of loans and tax returns to 38% from 31.8% in 9M 2026, when deferred-tax income lowered it [2 p.8]. Every line comes from its own driver in the Assumptions sheet; the balance sheet balances through investments, which absorb the deposits that loans do not use.

Exhibit 13Drivers: deposits, loan and bond yields, deposit cost, credit cost and tax
DriverFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Shares outstanding (mn)1,561.7———————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)42.90———————
Scenario drivers
Deposit growth - bear—————2.0%10.0%9.0%
Deposit growth - base—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Deposit growth - bull—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Deposit growth - active—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Loan growth - bear—————1.5%7.0%8.0%
Loan growth - base—————2.0%8.0%9.0%
Loan growth - bull—————2.0%10.0%11.0%
Loan growth - active—————2.0%8.0%9.0%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bear—————9.3%8.9%8.6%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - base—————9.4%9.1%8.9%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bull—————9.4%9.2%9.0%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - active—————9.4%9.1%8.9%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - bear—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - base—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - bull—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - active—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - bear—————12.9%11.4%10.4%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - base—————13.0%11.8%10.8%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - bull—————13.0%11.8%10.8%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - active—————13.0%11.8%10.8%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - bear—————8.0%8.0%7.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - base—————10.0%10.0%9.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - bull—————10.0%12.0%11.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - active—————10.0%10.0%9.0%
Other operating income growth - bear—————5.0%5.0%5.0%
Other operating income growth - base—————15.0%10.0%8.0%
Other operating income growth - bull—————15.0%10.0%8.0%
Other operating income growth - active—————15.0%10.0%8.0%
Operating expense growth - bear—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Operating expense growth - base—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Operating expense growth - bull—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Operating expense growth - active—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear—————1.4%1.7%1.6%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base—————1.3%1.5%1.3%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull—————1.2%1.2%1.2%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active—————1.3%1.5%1.3%
Effective tax rate - bear—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Effective tax rate - base—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Effective tax rate - bull—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Effective tax rate - active—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bear—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - base—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bull—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - active—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bear—————3.1%5.5%6.5%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - base—————3.0%4.5%5.5%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bull—————2.7%3.5%4.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - active—————3.0%4.5%5.5%
Single-path drivers
Treasury interest expense (bond premium amortisation, HFT/HTM, repo) / avg investments—————3.0%2.5%2.0%
Cash, bank balances and other assets / deposits—————16.5%16.5%16.5%
Borrowings and other liabilities / deposits—————23.0%22.0%22.0%
Fixed asset growth before the HQ purchase (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26)—————2.0%8.0%8.0%
Head-office purchase, Swiss Tower (BDT mn, added to fixed assets)—————08,0000
RWA / loans—————84.0%84.0%84.0%
Tier-1 capital / book equity—————80.0%80.0%80.0%
Tier-2 capital (BDT mn)—————32,00031,00030,000
Net NPL / gross NPL (after specific provision)—————25.0%30.0%30.0%
30-Sep-2026 actuals (standalone) that anchor FY2026F
Loans and advances 30-Sep-2026755,331———————
Deposits 30-Sep-20261,086,303———————
Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-202688,669———————
Investments 30-Sep-2026484,002———————
Fixed assets 30-Sep-20269,127———————
Borrowings and other liabilities 30-Sep-2026252,570———————
9M 2026 interest income52,363———————
9M 2026 interest on deposits and borrowings42,587———————
9M 2026 treasury interest expense6,069———————
9M 2026 investment income36,938———————
9M 2026 commission, exchange and brokerage4,170———————
9M 2026 other operating income1,742———————
9M 2026 operating expenses18,570———————
9M 2026 total provisions4,935———————
9M 2026 profit before tax23,053———————
9M 2026 tax7,342———————
9M 2026 net profit15,711———————
Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E)
Cost of equity scenario adjustment1.0%0.0%-1.0%0.0%————
Terminal growth g6.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%————
Scenario adjustment to normalised ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Long-run net treasury yield below the 10-yr T-bond1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%————
Adjustment to peer median P/B-0.1x0.0x0.1x0.0x————
NPL haircut h on net NPL100.0%50.0%25.0%50.0%————
Terminal cash payout after the paid-up threshold is met (from FY2029)50.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%————
P/E multiple on normalised EPS4.0x4.5x5.0x4.5x————

From the Assumptions tab of the model.

Source: Assumptions sheet [15]
Exhibit 14Income statement FY2021A–FY2028F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Interest income22,73829,81340,34158,39566,93170,29172,91477,387
Interest on deposits and borrowings21,90123,24130,32137,15550,38159,12668,78974,037
Treasury interest expense (bond premium amortisation, HFT/HTM, repo)———6,1587,0549,78213,75012,512
Net interest income (as reported)8376,57210,02015,0829,4961,382-9,626-9,162
Investment income (gross)15,67113,74015,63420,19135,03853,03064,90167,565
Core revenue (NII + investment income)16,50820,31225,65435,27344,53454,41255,27658,403
Commission, exchange and brokerage2,3473,3113,1044,7254,9655,6996,2696,833
Other operating income1,2691,5701,7941,8202,1612,4102,6512,863
Total operating income20,12425,19330,55241,81851,66062,52164,19568,099
Total operating expenses10,68113,85715,19819,25822,97425,68829,02832,221
Profit before provisions9,44311,33615,35422,56028,68636,83235,16735,878
Total provisions4,2442,8243,3659,4558,7157,41412,01911,304
Profit before tax5,1998,51211,98913,10519,97129,41823,14924,574
Tax1,2953,1915,1805,4809,1769,7298,7969,338
Net profit after tax3,9045,3216,8097,62510,79519,68914,35215,236
EPS (BDT, on 1,561.7mn shares)2.503.414.364.886.9112.619.199.76
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)0.820.820.820.930.830.000.000.00
Memo: treasury measured net (like-for-like)
Net treasury income (investment income - treasury interest expense)———14,03327,98443,24751,15155,053
Lending NII (interest income - interest on deposits and borrowings)———21,24016,55011,1654,1253,350

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: Income statement sheet [15]
Exhibit 15Balance sheet FY2021A–FY2028F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Assets
Cash, bank balances and other assets101,110104,973105,346135,914160,192184,617206,771229,516
Investments (plug in forecast)145,633139,403147,496209,197300,433504,520578,955663,289
Loans and advances (gross)376,656461,884554,496629,254711,406770,438832,073906,959
Fixed assets6,0826,4967,5296,8388,1069,31018,05419,499
Total assets629,481712,756814,867981,2031,180,1371,468,8841,635,8531,819,263
Liabilities and equity
Deposits and other accounts462,400510,837606,296745,232895,1951,118,8921,253,1591,391,007
Borrowings and other liabilities127,627159,433161,727183,365215,330257,345275,695306,021
Shareholders' equity39,45442,48646,84452,60669,61292,647106,999122,235
Total liabilities and equity629,481712,756814,867981,2031,180,1371,468,8841,635,8531,819,263
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)00000000
Asset quality and capital
Classified loans (gross NPL)11,48012,12115,86227,40815,64423,11337,44349,883
Specific provision held11,09013,19315,46821,03214,27817,33526,21034,918
General provision held (unclassified, rescheduled, stay-order)8,1637,9238,7069,38919,37920,98722,66624,706
Net NPL (gross NPL - specific provision)39003946,3761,3665,77811,23314,965
Risk-weighted assets369,576422,331471,883526,618596,618647,168698,941761,846
Tier-1 capital33,64538,87243,63147,52757,83574,11885,59997,788
Tier-2 capital18,94619,59221,80124,98933,70632,00031,00030,000
Total regulatory capital52,59158,46465,43272,51691,541106,118116,599127,788
Cash dividend declared for the year1,2851,2851,2851,4461,301000

From the Balance sheet tab of the model.

Source: Balance sheet sheet [15]

Fair value BDT 17–39, base 30: a 12.0% sustainable ROE justifies 0.57x adjusted book

Method. Residual income on adjusted book carries 75% of the weight, a peer median P/B on the same standalone adjusted book 10% and a P/E on normalised EPS 15%. The F01 peer P/B–ROE regression is replaced by the median because its fit is weak (R² 0.18). Cost of equity is 15.8%: the 10-year T-bond cut-off of 9.268% (25-Oct-2026) [8] plus a Blume-adjusted beta of 0.88 (raw 0.81, two years of weekly returns against the DSEX, R² 0.21) times a 7.5% equity risk premium. Terminal growth is 7%.

Adjusted book. Book equity at end-2025 of BDT 69.6bn [1 p.367] less half of net NPL at that date (0.7bn; future migration is charged through provisions) gives an adjusted book of BDT 68.9bn. Residual income in FY2026–28F adds BDT 6.1bn of present value; the terminal term is negative (-33.8bn) because the normalised ROE is below the cost of equity. Rolled forward to October 2026 and net of the FY2025 cash dividend, residual income is BDT 29.1 a share. The peer median P/B of 0.77x on September 2026 book less half of its net NPL of BDT 55.3 gives 42.5; the P/E leg, 4.5x normalised EPS of BDT 6.26, gives 28.1. Own year-end P/E was 3.7–7.1x in FY2021–25, median 5.0x [1 p.369].

Normalised ROE. We start from FY2028F, move the net treasury yield to the T-bond less 1pp (8.3%; adjustment BDT -1.4bn after tax, with deposit costs following 30% of the move) and keep the long-run credit cost at 1.30%, the same as FY2028F in the base (adjustment 0.0bn). That gives 12.0%. On the same basis (NPAT over average equity) ROE was 13.0%, 15.2%, 15.3% and 17.7% in FY2022–25, median 15.3%, range 13.0%–17.7% [s15 on s1 p.367]; the bank's reported figures (9.8–15.5%, FY2021–25 [1 p.368]) use a different equity base. 9M 2026 annualised was about 26% [15]. Our 12.0% is below the FY2022–25 range: the 2026 level rests on a bond book bought at peak yields, and the dividend rule leaves more equity to earn on. The implied P/B of our base is 0.53x September 2026 book, and the implied P/E 2.4x FY2026F and 3.3x FY2027F.

Why the base is below every peer's P/B (0.60–0.97x). Peers' screener P/Bs are set on current ROEs of 15–27% that also carry 2025–26 bond income; we normalise Pubali's yields and do not normalise theirs, so part of the gap is method. The rest is specific to Pubali in its filings: rescheduled loans were 14.84% of loans at end-2025, above its own 12% limit [1 p.168]; special mention loans rose from BDT 9.9bn to 60.9bn (8.1% of loans) in 21 months [s1 p.442; s2 p.13]; interest suspense rose from BDT 10.4bn to 23.8bn [s1 p.469; s2 p.15]; equity is about 6% of assets; and the 9M 2026 ROE rests on a bond book bought at peak yields. That is why the residual-income leg (29.1) sits below the peer-median leg (42.5), which applies the peers' 0.77x to Pubali's book with no such adjustment and carries 10% weight. We have not tested peers' rescheduled and SMA exposures, so we do not claim Pubali is worse than each of them.

Exhibit 16Every 2pp of sustainable ROE moves fair value by about BDT 10
Ke \ ROE_s8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%
Ke 13.8%18.925.638.651.664.5
Ke 14.8%17.322.833.945.056.1
Ke 15.8%16.020.630.339.949.6
Ke 16.8%14.918.927.435.944.4
Ke 17.8%14.017.525.032.640.2
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [15] · BDT per share; base cell boxed
Exhibit 17A 1pp higher deposit cost takes fair value to BDT 8.1; a 1pp higher credit cost to 19.2
Credit cost \ deposit cost (FY27–28F)-1.0pp-0.5pp+0.0pp+0.5pp+1.0pp
-1.0pp78.259.841.623.712.8
-0.5pp72.354.035.918.710.3
+0.0pp66.448.230.315.58.1
+0.5pp60.642.524.712.76.1
+1.0pp54.836.819.210.24.2
Source: Sensitivity sheet, workbook recalculations [15] · BDT per share; deposit cost shocks persist fully into normalised ROE, credit cost shocks by half

The bear case is a plausible 25% case, not every shock at once: the gross investment yield is 0.4pp below base (10.4% by FY2028F), credit cost 1.6–1.7%, NPL 6.5%, deposits +9–10% and loans +7–8%, with a cost of equity 1pp higher, a 100% haircut on existing net NPL, 6% terminal growth and a 50% terminal payout; deposit cost and tax stay on the base path (their shocks are in the risks table). FY2027F EPS is BDT 6.56 and sustainable ROE 8.8%, below the lowest reported year (FY2021, 9.8% [1 p.368]); every leg stays positive (residual income 14.0). A separate stacked stress (yield 0.8pp lower, credit cost 2.0%, NPL 8%, tax 39%, deposits +8%, Ke +1pp) gives 13.8; it is in the risks table, not the range. Those shocks carry fully into long-run ROE, with no repricing of loans to offset them; because equity is about 6% of assets, a 1pp lower yield on BDT 1.24 trillion of loans and investments removes about half of the profit. The bull case changes only loan growth (10–11%), fees (+12%), credit cost (1.2%) and NPL (3.5–4.0%) from the base, with a cost of equity 1pp lower; sustainable ROE is 12.6%.

Exhibit 18Bear 17 / base 30 / bull 39; probability-weighted 29.2
BearBaseBull
Residual income per share14.029.139.3
Peer median P/B leg36.042.548.7
P/E leg18.228.132.7
Sustainable ROE8.8%12.0%12.6%
FY2027F EPS6.569.1910.47
Blended fair value16.830.339.3
Source: Valuation sheet, scenario recalculations [15]
Exhibit 19On consolidated screener figures Pubali trades on 0.88x book against a peer median of 0.77x
BankPriceMkt cap (BDT bn)P/E TTMP/BROEDiv. yield
PUBALIBANK42.967.05.60x0.88x17.9%2.9%
BRACBANK67.5154.56.53x0.97x19.7%1.9%
CITYBANK29.852.13.36x0.79x27.2%4.4%
DUTCHBANGL46.647.33.63x0.76x22.9%5.1%
EBL23.739.04.25x0.73x18.1%10.5%
PRIMEBANK29.435.83.71x0.71x20.3%8.1%
UTTARABANK21.325.83.78x0.78x22.6%1.9%
JAMUNABANK23.522.13.45x0.79x22.9%12.3%
BANKASIA17.023.74.13x0.60x14.6%4.6%
Source: AnalystBro screener, 29-Oct-2026 [7]; P/B and ROE consolidated · ROE is the latest quarter annualised; screener P/B uses the last reported book. CITYBANK, DUTCHBANGL and BANKASIA come from a second same-date screener call by name
Exhibit 20Valuation sheet
BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Book equity 31-Dec-202569,612——
Less: h x net NPL held at 31-Dec-2025 (15,644 - 14,278)683——
Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-202568,929——
Net profit (standalone)19,68914,35215,236
Opening book69,61292,647106,999
Equity charge (Ke x opening book)11,02214,66916,942
Residual income8,667-317-1,706
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.860.750.64
PV of residual income7,482-236-1,097
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F6,149——
Book 31-Dec-2028122,235——
Normalised (sustainable) ROE, F01 G1: FY2028F with the net treasury yield at T-bond - 1pp and through-cycle credit cost
Normalised net treasury yield (Rf - spread)8.3%——
Deposit-cost pass-through of a lower market yield (beta_D)0.30——
Add: net treasury yield normalisation net of funding repricing, after tax (FY2028F)-1,434——
Add: half of any FY2028F credit-cost excess over the long-run 1.30%, after tax (0 in the base)0——
Normalised net profit (FY2028F balance sheet)13,802——
Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg equity FY2027-28F)12.0%——
Sustainable ROE used (normalised + scenario adjustment)12.0%——
Terminal growth used: MIN(g, ROE_s x terminal retention)7.0%——
Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.6x——
PV of terminal excess return-33,760——
Residual-income value 31-Dec-202541,318——
Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid45,379——
Residual-income value per share (BDT)29.06——
Normalised EPS (normalised ROE x avg equity FY2025-26F / shares)6.26——
P/E leg per share (multiple x normalised EPS)28.15——
Peer median P/B (8 banks) + scenario adjustment0.8x——
Standalone adjusted book per share, Sep-26 (equity 88,669 - h x net NPL 4,617)55.30——
Peer-median leg per share (median P/B x standalone adjusted book)42.50——
Weight: residual income75.0%——
Weight: peer median P/B10.0%——
Weight: P/E15.0%——
Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT)30.26——
Terminal share of RI value-81.7%——
Implied P/B on Sep-26 standalone book (56.78)0.5x——
Implied P/E FY2026F2.4x——
Implied P/E FY2027F3.3x——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 36.0)14.0118.1816.83
Base: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 42.5)29.0628.1530.26
Bull: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 48.7)39.3332.7339.27
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)29.16——
Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 42.9 (base Ke, g)14.7%——

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: AnalystBro model [15]

Deposit cost is the largest risk: 1pp higher takes 73% off base fair value

Each risk below is a workbook recalculation with one input changed from the base case, and names the line it moves. Bond-yield and deposit-cost shocks carry fully into normalised ROE; half of a credit-cost shock carries into the long run; NPL shocks act through provisions (the 100% haircut rows apply to the existing net NPL). Zero loan growth slightly raises value, because new loans earn little more than bonds after credit cost and need capital.

Exhibit 21Eleven quantified risks, including a stacked stress: deposit cost and bond yields dominate
Risk (line moved)EPS effectFair value vs baseLikelihoodSignal to watch
Stacked stress: yield -0.8pp, credit cost 2.0%, NPL 8%, tax 39%, deposits +8%, Ke +1pp (all lines; not in the range)FY27F EPS 5.19-54.3%LowSeveral signals below at once
Deposit cost +1pp from FY2027F (deposit and borrowing interest line)FY27F EPS 4.48-73.4%MediumInterest on deposits per quarter (Q3 2026: 5.98% annualised)
Investment yield -2pp from FY2027F; long-run T-bond spread 3pp (investment income line)FY27F EPS 4.82-70.7%MediumQuarterly investment income vs BDT 16.2bn in Q3 2026
Rescheduled loans default: NPL 10%, credit cost 3% FY27, 100% haircut (provision line, adjusted book)FY27F EPS 4.42-26.0%Low-mediumSMA loans (BDT 60.9bn) and interest suspense (23.8bn)
Credit cost 2.5% in FY2027–28F (provision line)FY27F EPS 6.01-42.2%Low-mediumFY2026 audited classification
Deposit growth slows to 5% from FY2027F (balance sheet, investment income)FY27F EPS 7.78-44.2%MediumDeposits in quarterly filings
NPL rises to 8% (FY27) and 10% (FY28), provided at 3% credit cost, 100% haircut on existing net NPL (provision line, adjusted book)FY27F EPS 4.42-54.0%Low-mediumClassified loans per quarter
Fees fall 10% a year in FY2027–28F (fee line)FY27F EPS 8.68-20.9%LowL/C and guarantee volumes
Tax rate 42% (tax line)FY27F EPS 8.59-12.7%Low-mediumEffective rate in FY2026 accounts (FY25: 45.9%)
No loan growth to FY2028F (loan and investment income lines)FY27F EPS 9.50+8.2%MediumLoans in quarterly filings
Head-office purchase not approved (fixed assets, investments)FY27F EPS 9.19+6.0%LowBangladesh Bank approval
Source: AnalystBro model, workbook recalculations [15]

Context risks that move no line in our model: a change of Bangladesh Bank policy on rescheduled loans (BRPD 07/2025 required a general provision equal to the specific provision held before rescheduling [1 p.384]); bank-resolution and merger policy, which has pushed deposits toward banks like Pubali; and any change to the dividend rule itself. Directors hold 28.20% of shares [1 p.364].

  • FY2026 annual results (expected by April 2027): standalone EPS near BDT 12.6, the first 2026 classification and CRAR, and rescheduled loans as a share of the book.
  • Quarterly interest on deposits: above 6.2% of average deposits would mean deposit pricing is not easing.
  • Quarterly investment income: below BDT 12bn would mean yields falling faster than our base.
  • Special mention loans and interest suspense: further rises point to the bear case.
  • FY2026 dividend and capital: the size of any stock dividend, a rights issue at par, or the green bond.

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

DriverFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Shares outstanding (mn)1,561.7———————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)42.90———————
Scenario drivers
Deposit growth - bear—————2.0%10.0%9.0%
Deposit growth - base—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Deposit growth - bull—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Deposit growth - active—————3.0%12.0%11.0%
Loan growth - bear—————1.5%7.0%8.0%
Loan growth - base—————2.0%8.0%9.0%
Loan growth - bull—————2.0%10.0%11.0%
Loan growth - active—————2.0%8.0%9.0%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bear—————9.3%8.9%8.6%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - base—————9.4%9.1%8.9%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - bull—————9.4%9.2%9.0%
Yield on average loans (interest income / avg loans) - active—————9.4%9.1%8.9%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - bear—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - base—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - bull—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Cost of deposits and borrowings (their interest / avg deposits) - active—————6.0%5.8%5.6%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - bear—————12.9%11.4%10.4%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - base—————13.0%11.8%10.8%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - bull—————13.0%11.8%10.8%
Gross yield on investments (investment income / avg investments) - active—————13.0%11.8%10.8%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - bear—————8.0%8.0%7.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - base—————10.0%10.0%9.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - bull—————10.0%12.0%11.0%
Commission, exchange and brokerage growth - active—————10.0%10.0%9.0%
Other operating income growth - bear—————5.0%5.0%5.0%
Other operating income growth - base—————15.0%10.0%8.0%
Other operating income growth - bull—————15.0%10.0%8.0%
Other operating income growth - active—————15.0%10.0%8.0%
Operating expense growth - bear—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Operating expense growth - base—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Operating expense growth - bull—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Operating expense growth - active—————15.0%13.0%11.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear—————1.4%1.7%1.6%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base—————1.3%1.5%1.3%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull—————1.2%1.2%1.2%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active—————1.3%1.5%1.3%
Effective tax rate - bear—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Effective tax rate - base—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Effective tax rate - bull—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Effective tax rate - active—————37.5%38.0%38.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bear—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - base—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - bull—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cash dividend payout (of NPAT) - active—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bear—————3.1%5.5%6.5%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - base—————3.0%4.5%5.5%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - bull—————2.7%3.5%4.0%
Gross NPL ratio (year end) - active—————3.0%4.5%5.5%
Single-path drivers
Treasury interest expense (bond premium amortisation, HFT/HTM, repo) / avg investments—————3.0%2.5%2.0%
Cash, bank balances and other assets / deposits—————16.5%16.5%16.5%
Borrowings and other liabilities / deposits—————23.0%22.0%22.0%
Fixed asset growth before the HQ purchase (FY26 column: Q4 vs Sep-26)—————2.0%8.0%8.0%
Head-office purchase, Swiss Tower (BDT mn, added to fixed assets)—————08,0000
RWA / loans—————84.0%84.0%84.0%
Tier-1 capital / book equity—————80.0%80.0%80.0%
Tier-2 capital (BDT mn)—————32,00031,00030,000
Net NPL / gross NPL (after specific provision)—————25.0%30.0%30.0%
30-Sep-2026 actuals (standalone) that anchor FY2026F
Loans and advances 30-Sep-2026755,331———————
Deposits 30-Sep-20261,086,303———————
Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-202688,669———————
Investments 30-Sep-2026484,002———————
Fixed assets 30-Sep-20269,127———————
Borrowings and other liabilities 30-Sep-2026252,570———————
9M 2026 interest income52,363———————
9M 2026 interest on deposits and borrowings42,587———————
9M 2026 treasury interest expense6,069———————
9M 2026 investment income36,938———————
9M 2026 commission, exchange and brokerage4,170———————
9M 2026 other operating income1,742———————
9M 2026 operating expenses18,570———————
9M 2026 total provisions4,935———————
9M 2026 profit before tax23,053———————
9M 2026 tax7,342———————
9M 2026 net profit15,711———————
Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E)
Cost of equity scenario adjustment1.0%0.0%-1.0%0.0%————
Terminal growth g6.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%————
Scenario adjustment to normalised ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Long-run net treasury yield below the 10-yr T-bond1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%————
Adjustment to peer median P/B-0.1x0.0x0.1x0.0x————
NPL haircut h on net NPL100.0%50.0%25.0%50.0%————
Terminal cash payout after the paid-up threshold is met (from FY2029)50.0%30.0%30.0%30.0%————
P/E multiple on normalised EPS4.0x4.5x5.0x4.5x————

Income statement

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Interest income22,73829,81340,34158,39566,93170,29172,91477,387
Interest on deposits and borrowings21,90123,24130,32137,15550,38159,12668,78974,037
Treasury interest expense (bond premium amortisation, HFT/HTM, repo)———6,1587,0549,78213,75012,512
Net interest income (as reported)8376,57210,02015,0829,4961,382-9,626-9,162
Investment income (gross)15,67113,74015,63420,19135,03853,03064,90167,565
Core revenue (NII + investment income)16,50820,31225,65435,27344,53454,41255,27658,403
Commission, exchange and brokerage2,3473,3113,1044,7254,9655,6996,2696,833
Other operating income1,2691,5701,7941,8202,1612,4102,6512,863
Total operating income20,12425,19330,55241,81851,66062,52164,19568,099
Total operating expenses10,68113,85715,19819,25822,97425,68829,02832,221
Profit before provisions9,44311,33615,35422,56028,68636,83235,16735,878
Total provisions4,2442,8243,3659,4558,7157,41412,01911,304
Profit before tax5,1998,51211,98913,10519,97129,41823,14924,574
Tax1,2953,1915,1805,4809,1769,7298,7969,338
Net profit after tax3,9045,3216,8097,62510,79519,68914,35215,236
EPS (BDT, on 1,561.7mn shares)2.503.414.364.886.9112.619.199.76
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)0.820.820.820.930.830.000.000.00
Memo: treasury measured net (like-for-like)
Net treasury income (investment income - treasury interest expense)———14,03327,98443,24751,15155,053
Lending NII (interest income - interest on deposits and borrowings)———21,24016,55011,1654,1253,350

Balance sheet

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Assets
Cash, bank balances and other assets101,110104,973105,346135,914160,192184,617206,771229,516
Investments (plug in forecast)145,633139,403147,496209,197300,433504,520578,955663,289
Loans and advances (gross)376,656461,884554,496629,254711,406770,438832,073906,959
Fixed assets6,0826,4967,5296,8388,1069,31018,05419,499
Total assets629,481712,756814,867981,2031,180,1371,468,8841,635,8531,819,263
Liabilities and equity
Deposits and other accounts462,400510,837606,296745,232895,1951,118,8921,253,1591,391,007
Borrowings and other liabilities127,627159,433161,727183,365215,330257,345275,695306,021
Shareholders' equity39,45442,48646,84452,60669,61292,647106,999122,235
Total liabilities and equity629,481712,756814,867981,2031,180,1371,468,8841,635,8531,819,263
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)00000000
Asset quality and capital
Classified loans (gross NPL)11,48012,12115,86227,40815,64423,11337,44349,883
Specific provision held11,09013,19315,46821,03214,27817,33526,21034,918
General provision held (unclassified, rescheduled, stay-order)8,1637,9238,7069,38919,37920,98722,66624,706
Net NPL (gross NPL - specific provision)39003946,3761,3665,77811,23314,965
Risk-weighted assets369,576422,331471,883526,618596,618647,168698,941761,846
Tier-1 capital33,64538,87243,63147,52757,83574,11885,59997,788
Tier-2 capital18,94619,59221,80124,98933,70632,00031,00030,000
Total regulatory capital52,59158,46465,43272,51691,541106,118116,599127,788
Cash dividend declared for the year1,2851,2851,2851,4461,301000

Cash flow

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net profit after tax—5,3216,8097,62510,79519,68914,35215,236
Increase in deposits—48,43795,459138,936149,963223,697134,267137,848
Increase in borrowings and other liabilities—31,8062,29421,63831,96542,01518,35030,326
Increase in loans—-85,228-92,612-74,758-82,152-59,032-61,635-74,887
Operating cash flow (balance-sheet basis)—33611,95093,441110,571226,370105,334108,523
Increase in investments—6,230-8,093-61,701-91,236-204,087-74,435-84,334
Increase in fixed assets (net capex, incl. HQ purchase)—-414-1,033691-1,268-1,204-8,745-1,444
Investing cash flow—5,816-9,126-61,010-92,504-205,291-83,180-85,779
Cash dividend paid—-1,285-1,285-1,285-1,446-1,30100
Other equity movements (OCI, perpetual coupon, reserves)—-1,004-1,166-5787,6574,64700
Financing cash flow—-2,289-2,451-1,8636,2113,34600
Increase in cash, bank balances and other assets—-3,863-373-30,568-24,278-24,425-22,154-22,745
Check: sum of flows (should be 0)—0000000

Quarterly

BDT mn1Q25A2Q25A3Q25A4Q25A1Q26A2Q26A3Q26A4Q26F
Net profit after tax1,7683,8913,2721,8642,1754,5898,9483,977
Total operating income11,99813,49112,23813,93313,90616,08116,57115,963
Investment income7,2578,3218,60110,8599,43811,34516,15516,092
Total provisions2,8812,9603,034-1602,6483,638-1,6682,796
EPS (BDT, current shares)1.132.492.101.191.392.945.732.55
Check: quarters - FY net profit———0———0

Ratios

RatioFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Yield on average loans—7.1%7.9%9.9%10.0%9.5%9.1%8.9%
Interest on deposits and borrowings / average deposits—4.8%5.4%5.5%6.1%5.9%5.8%5.6%
Lending spread (loan yield - deposit and borrowing cost)—2.3%2.5%4.4%3.8%3.6%3.3%3.3%
Gross yield on average investments—9.6%10.9%11.3%13.8%13.2%12.0%10.9%
Net treasury yield ((investment income - treasury interest) / avg investments)———7.9%11.0%10.7%9.4%8.9%
Reported-basis NIM (NII / avg loans + investments)—1.2%1.5%2.0%1.0%0.1%-0.7%-0.6%
Core NIM ((NII + investment income) / avg loans + investments)—3.6%3.9%4.6%4.8%4.8%4.1%3.9%
Deposit funding cost allocated to investments (deposit cost x avg investments)———9,80615,65223,63031,42134,783
Net treasury contribution after funding (net treasury income - allocated funding)———4,22712,33219,61719,73020,270
Lending NII after funding (lending NII + funding cost of investments)———31,04632,20234,79535,54638,133
Net treasury contribution after funding / total operating income———10.1%23.9%31.4%30.7%29.8%
Net treasury income / total operating income———33.6%54.2%69.2%79.7%80.8%
Investment income / core revenue (F01 definition, gross over NII + investment income)94.9%67.6%60.9%57.2%78.7%97.5%117.4%115.7%
Investment income / (interest income + investment income), gross basis40.8%31.5%27.9%25.7%34.4%43.0%47.1%46.6%
Fees and other income / total operating income18.0%19.4%16.0%15.7%13.8%13.0%13.9%14.2%
Cost-to-income53.1%55.0%49.7%46.1%44.5%41.1%45.2%47.3%
Credit cost (provisions / avg loans)—0.7%0.7%1.6%1.3%1.0%1.5%1.3%
Gross NPL ratio3.0%2.6%2.9%4.4%2.2%3.0%4.5%5.5%
Specific coverage (specific provision / NPL)96.6%108.8%97.5%76.7%91.3%75.0%70.0%70.0%
Coverage incl. general provision167.7%174.2%152.4%111.0%215.1%165.8%130.5%119.5%
Loans / deposits (simple)81.5%90.4%91.5%84.4%79.5%68.9%66.4%65.2%
Tier-1 ratio9.1%9.2%9.2%9.0%9.7%11.5%12.2%12.8%
CRAR14.2%13.8%13.9%13.8%15.3%16.4%16.7%16.8%
Capital above 12.5% CRAR (BDT mn)6,3945,6736,4476,68916,96425,22229,23232,557
ROA (NPAT / avg assets)—0.8%0.9%0.8%1.0%1.5%0.9%0.9%
ROE (NPAT / avg equity)—13.0%15.2%15.3%17.7%24.3%14.4%13.3%
Book value per share (BDT, current shares)25.2627.2030.0033.6844.5759.3268.5178.27
P/B at 42.9————1.0x0.7x0.6x0.5x
P/E at 42.9————6.2x3.4x4.7x4.4x
Cash dividend yield at 42.9————1.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Valuation

BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Book equity 31-Dec-202569,612——
Less: h x net NPL held at 31-Dec-2025 (15,644 - 14,278)683——
Adjusted book (ABV) 31-Dec-202568,929——
Net profit (standalone)19,68914,35215,236
Opening book69,61292,647106,999
Equity charge (Ke x opening book)11,02214,66916,942
Residual income8,667-317-1,706
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.860.750.64
PV of residual income7,482-236-1,097
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F6,149——
Book 31-Dec-2028122,235——
Normalised (sustainable) ROE, F01 G1: FY2028F with the net treasury yield at T-bond - 1pp and through-cycle credit cost
Normalised net treasury yield (Rf - spread)8.3%——
Deposit-cost pass-through of a lower market yield (beta_D)0.30——
Add: net treasury yield normalisation net of funding repricing, after tax (FY2028F)-1,434——
Add: half of any FY2028F credit-cost excess over the long-run 1.30%, after tax (0 in the base)0——
Normalised net profit (FY2028F balance sheet)13,802——
Normalised ROE (normalised profit / avg equity FY2027-28F)12.0%——
Sustainable ROE used (normalised + scenario adjustment)12.0%——
Terminal growth used: MIN(g, ROE_s x terminal retention)7.0%——
Justified P/ABV (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.6x——
PV of terminal excess return-33,760——
Residual-income value 31-Dec-202541,318——
Rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid45,379——
Residual-income value per share (BDT)29.06——
Normalised EPS (normalised ROE x avg equity FY2025-26F / shares)6.26——
P/E leg per share (multiple x normalised EPS)28.15——
Peer median P/B (8 banks) + scenario adjustment0.8x——
Standalone adjusted book per share, Sep-26 (equity 88,669 - h x net NPL 4,617)55.30——
Peer-median leg per share (median P/B x standalone adjusted book)42.50——
Weight: residual income75.0%——
Weight: peer median P/B10.0%——
Weight: P/E15.0%——
Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT)30.26——
Terminal share of RI value-81.7%——
Implied P/B on Sep-26 standalone book (56.78)0.5x——
Implied P/E FY2026F2.4x——
Implied P/E FY2027F3.3x——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 36.0)14.0118.1816.83
Base: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 42.5)29.0628.1530.26
Bull: RI / P/E / blend (peer-median leg 48.7)39.3332.7339.27
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)29.16——
Reverse check: ROE_s implied by the price 42.9 (base Ke, g)14.7%——

WACC

Cost of equity inputValue
Risk-free rate: 10-yr BD T-bond cut-off yield9.3%
Raw beta: 2-yr weekly vs DSEX (104 returns to 29-Oct-2026)0.81
Blume-adjusted beta0.88
Beta used (Blume-adjusted)0.88
Equity risk premium7.5%
Cost of equity, base (Rf + beta x ERP)15.8%
Scenario adjustment (active)0.0%
Cost of equity used (active scenario)15.8%
Terminal growth g (active)7.0%
Memo: Ke at floor beta 0.815.3%

Sensitivity

Grid (row input x column input)Col 1Col 2Col 3 (base)Col 4Col 5
Grid A: cost of equity (rows) x sustainable ROE (columns); fair value per share
Ke \\ ROE_s8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%
Ke 13.83%18.925.638.651.664.5
Ke 14.83%17.322.833.945.056.1
Ke 15.83%16.020.630.339.949.6
Ke 16.83%14.918.927.435.944.4
Ke 17.83%14.017.525.032.640.2
Grid B: credit cost FY27-28 shock (rows) x deposit cost shock (columns); fair value per share
Credit cost \\ cost of deposits-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
Credit cost -1.0pp78.259.841.623.712.8
Credit cost -0.5pp72.354.035.918.710.3
Credit cost +0.0pp66.448.230.315.58.1
Credit cost +0.5pp60.642.524.712.76.1
Credit cost +1.0pp54.836.819.210.24.2
Grid C: investment yield shock (rows, FY27-28) x cost of deposits shock (columns); FY2027F EPS
Inv. yield \\ cost of deposits-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
Investment yield -2.0pp9.537.184.822.470.11
Investment yield -1.0pp11.719.367.014.652.30
Investment yield +0.0pp13.9011.549.196.844.48
Investment yield +1.0pp16.0813.7311.379.026.66
Investment yield +2.0pp18.2715.9113.5611.208.85
Grid D: NPL haircut h (rows) x credit cost FY27-28 shock (columns); fair value per share
h \\ credit cost-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
h 50%41.635.930.324.719.2
h 75%41.335.730.024.518.9
h 100%41.135.429.824.218.7

Peers

MetricPUBALIBANKBRACBANKCITYBANKDUTCHBANGLEBLPRIMEBANKUTTARABANKJAMUNABANKBANKASIAPeer median
Price (BDT)42.967.529.846.623.729.421.323.517.026.6
Market cap (BDT bn)67.0154.552.147.339.035.825.822.123.737.4
P/E TTM5.6x6.5x3.4x3.6x4.2x3.7x3.8x3.5x4.1x3.7x
P/B (screener, consolidated)0.9x1.0x0.8x0.8x0.7x0.7x0.8x0.8x0.6x0.8x
ROE (latest quarter, annualised)17.9%19.7%27.2%22.9%18.1%20.3%22.6%22.9%14.6%21.4%
Dividend yield2.9%1.9%4.4%5.1%10.5%8.1%1.9%12.3%4.6%4.9%
P/B-ROE regression slope (8 peers)1.18—————————
P/B-ROE regression intercept0.52—————————
R-squared0.18—————————
Fitted P/B at Pubali's ROE0.7x—————————

Dividend rule

BDT mn unless statedFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Paid-up capital now (BDT mn)15,617.2——
Threshold for any cash dividend (BDT mn)20,000——
Gap to threshold (BDT mn)4,382.8——
Cumulative stock dividend needed28.1%——
Route (a): stock dividends (no cash) - assumed 15% / 12% / 0% for FY2026-28 (judgement; paid in the following year)
Stock dividend rate15.0%12.0%0.0%
Paid-up capital after the stock dividend for the year17,96020,11520,115
Shares after (mn)1,796.02,011.52,011.5
EPS on post-bonus shares (BDT)10.967.147.57
Base fair value per post-bonus share (value unchanged, more shares)26.3223.5023.50
Route (b): rights issue at Tk10 par for the whole gap in FY2027 (assumption on price; UCB precedent 1R:2 at Tk10)
New shares (mn)438.3——
Proceeds (BDT mn)4,383——
Base fair value per post-rights share (BDT)24.88——
Value change for a holder of one share who subscribes (BDT)-1.20——
Theoretical ex-rights price at today's 42.9 (BDT)35.69——
FY2027F ROE with proceeds invested at the FY2027F net treasury yield after tax14.0%——
FY2027F ROE without the rights issue14.4%——
FY2027F CRAR with the proceeds17.3%——
FY2027F CRAR without (all profit retained)16.7%——
Illustrative FY2027F cash DPS after the rights: 30% total payout, half cash, on 2,000mn shares1.08——
Its yield on the ex-rights price3.0%——

FAQ

What is Pubali Bank's fair value?
We estimate BDT 17–39 a share, base 30 and probability-weighted 29, against 42.9 on 29-Oct-2026. It blends residual income on adjusted book (75%), a peer median P/B on the same book (10%) and a P/E on normalised earnings (15%).
Why did Pubali Bank's profit jump in 2026?
Deposits grew 21% in nine months and went into government bonds bought at high yields: investment income rose 53% to BDT 36.9bn in 9M 2026, and Q3 also had a BDT 1.7bn provision write-back. Nine-month EPS was 10.06 against 5.72.
Why is Pubali Bank's net interest income negative?
The bank books bond premium amortisation and HFT, HTM and repo costs (BDT 6.1bn in 9M 2026) inside interest expense, while the bond coupons sit in investment income. Lending itself earns a spread of about 3.6–3.8pp; measured net, treasury earned BDT 30.9bn in 9M 2026.
Can Pubali Bank pay cash dividends?
Not until paid-up capital reaches Tk2,000 crore: Bangladesh Bank's SPCD circular 06 of 23 May 2026 bars cash dividends below that from the FY2026 dividend onward, and Pubali's paid-up is Tk1,562 crore. It needs about 28% more shares through stock dividends or a rights issue; shareholders approved Tk4,000 crore of authorised capital on 25 October 2026.
How good is Pubali Bank's asset quality?
Gross NPL was 2.47% at September 2026, but rescheduled loans were 14.84% of the book at end-2025, special mention loans rose to BDT 60.9bn and interest suspense to 23.8bn, so our base case raises NPL to 5.5% by FY2028F, and keeps credit cost at 1.3–1.5%, with 1.30% in the long run.

Sources

  1. Pubali Bank PLC Integrated Annual Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025), standalone and consolidated; page numbers are PDF pages (printed page = PDF page - 2) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. Pubali Bank PLC un-audited financial statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. Pubali Bank PLC un-audited financial statements, half year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  4. Pubali Bank PLC un-audited financial statements, half year to 30-Jun-2025 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive for PUBALIBANK, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividend, AGM, EGM, authorised capital, HQ purchase, director share purchases) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. Bangladesh Bank SPCD Circular No. 06, 23-May-2026, dividend declaration policy for banks (Bangla) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (PUBALIBANK, DSEX) and bank screener, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. Bangladesh Bank call money and treasury auction pages, 29 Oct 2026 (10-year bond cut-off 9.2680% on 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  9. Bangladesh Bank, Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026 (Table 102) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  10. The Business Standard, 'No cash dividend for banks under Tk2,000cr paid-up capital: BB', 23 May 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  11. The Daily Star, 'Banks below Tk 2,000cr capital barred from cash dividends', 24 May 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  12. The Business Standard, 'Pubali Bank shareholders approve doubling authorised capital to Tk4,000 crore', 25 Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  13. The Business Standard, 'UCB gets BSEC approval for Tk775cr rights issue to meet capital requirement', 7 Jul 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  14. The Financial Express, 'BSEC approves UCB rights issue, new open-ended MF', 8 Jul 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  15. AnalystBro model (workbook on this page) · accessed 2026-10-31

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