Research

Fair value range BDT 9–29 (base 17); the price of 23.5 sits in the upper half. Jamuna now holds more government securities than loans and earns its profit on the gap between a 6–7% deposit cost and 9–10% bond yields, with equity of 6% of assets. Our sustainable ROE after the perpetual-bond coupon, 11.7%, is close to its FY2022–25 median on the same basis (10.6%) and well below a 16% cost of equity.

Fair value range BDT 13–34 (base 22) against a price of 21.3. Deposits grew 41% in a year at rising cost, and paid-up capital of Tk1,213 crore bars cash dividends under the new Tk2,000 crore rule.

Fair value range BDT 6–19 (base 11) against a price of 17.0. The bond book now carries profit, net interest income is negative, and paid-up capital of Tk1,392 crore bars cash dividends until it reaches Tk2,000 crore.

Fair value range BDT 11–105 (base 53) against a price of 46.6. Current, savings and bills-payable balances are 79.5% of deposits; the gross NPL ratio of 9.2%, funding cost and the dividend rule decide value.

Fair value range BDT 20–40 (base 29); the price of 23.7 sits in the lower half. Its investment income now exceeds net interest income (gross loan interest is still larger); funding cost, asset quality and a dividend year without cash decide value.

Fair value range BDT 17–39 (base 30); the price of 42.9 is above the range. Deposits grew 21% in nine months and went into government bonds; yields on those bonds, rescheduled loans and the Tk2,000 crore cash-dividend rule decide value.

Fair value BDT 7–39 (base 18) against a price of 29.8. Net of funding cost, treasury earned 46% of FY2025 operating income; our sustainable ROE is 13% against the 19% the price implies.

Fair value BDT 7–39 (base 25) against a price of 29.4. Bond yields decide which end; a new rule bars cash dividends until paid-up capital reaches Tk2,000 crore.

Fair value BDT 18–73 (base 42) against a price of 67.5. How far ROE falls once bond yields normalise, from 18% in FY2026F toward our 14% sustainable level, decides where in the range value lies.

MTB's net interest income fell from BDT 7,867m in 2024 to 2,654m in 2025 and to BDT 677m in H1 2026 as interest expense reached 95% of interest income. Investment income is now 72% of operating income, gross NPL is 5.77% after an BDT 8.0bn write-off, CRAR is 13.55%, and paid-up capital of Tk1,211 crore after the 12% bonus bars cash dividends under SPCD Circular 06.

Fair value range BDT 22–43 (base 31.5); price 41.4. Cheaper deposits widen the spread as treasury income fades; one point more on deposit costs takes FY2027F EPS from 5.35 to 3.91.