IDLC Finance valuation report: fair value BDT 21.9–42.8 (Oct 2026)

IDLC Finance: fair value range BDT 22–43 on a 15% median lending ROE against a 19% cost of equity

Fair value range BDT 22–43 (base 31.5); price 41.4. Cheaper deposits widen the spread as treasury income fades; one point more on deposit costs takes FY2027F EPS from 5.35 to 3.91.

Company · Initiation · 29 Oct 2026 · FY2025 annual + 9M 2026 (to 30-Sep-2026) · By AnalystBro Team · 22 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Fair value range
৳22–43
Base ৳32 · price in the upper half of the range · probability-weighted ৳32
Price ৳41.40
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: Medium
Bear ৳22Base ৳32Bull ৳43Price ৳41.40

Sum of the parts: lending business at (ROE_s - g)/(Ke - g) = 0.69x adjusted book (ROE_s 15.2% FY2021-25 median, Ke 19.3%, g 6%) 70% / residual income 30%; subsidiaries: bonds at book less 25%, operating businesses at 0.23x

  • Lending business (blend of P/ABV and RI)৳20
  • IDLC Securities, IDLC Investments, IDLC Asset Management৳12
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 41.4
52-week range (feed-adjusted)BDT 30.5–48.3
Market capBDT 19.0bn
Shares outstanding458.3mn (after the 5% stock dividend for FY2025)
Largest holders (Dec-25)City Bank group 23.2%, Eskayef 8.0%, Sadharan Bima 7.6%, Reliance Insurance 7.0%
Year end / latest period used31 Dec / 9M 2026 (30-Sep-2026, unaudited)
Group NAV per share (Sep-26, reported)BDT 50.67
P/B on Sep-26 group book0.82x
P/E on FY2026F group EPS6.2x
Loans / deposits, solo (Sep-26)BDT 120.5bn / 116.9bn
Classified loans, solo (Dec-25)4.43% (BDT 5.41bn)
Provisions + suspense / classified (Dec-25)90%
Capital adequacy (Dec-25)17.82% solo, 22.30% group (10% minimum)
ROE FY2025 (company)11.63% group, 10.98% solo
Beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX)1.30 raw; 1.20 Blume-adjusted (used)
Dividend FY202515% cash + 5% stock
DSE category / statusA / Normal (not on the wind-up list)
Credit ratingAAA long term, ST-1 short term, stable (ECRL, Apr-2026)
Estimates
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net interest income (solo)4,3893,5813,1543,3183,540
Investment income (solo)1,2082,6183,5723,4783,674
Total operating income (solo)6,2256,8057,2957,4157,874
Profit before provisions (solo)3,6303,9054,2404,1374,377
Net profit, solo1,6731,7772,1111,6651,757
Net profit, subsidiaries524664964789851
Net profit, group (solo + subsidiaries)2,1982,4413,0742,4542,607
Group EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares)4.795.336.715.355.69
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)1.361.431.701.341.42
Group book value per share (BDT)43.7447.5552.8356.4860.82
ROE, group—11.7%13.4%9.8%9.7%
Classified loan ratio (solo)4.5%4.4%4.6%4.8%4.8%
Capital adequacy ratio (solo)—17.8%18.9%18.5%18.2%
P/E at 41.4—7.86.27.77.3
P/B at 41.4—0.9x0.8x0.7x0.7x

A 15.2% lending ROE, at the FY2021–25 median, supports 0.69x book; with the subsidiaries the base is 0.60x group book

Our fair value range for IDLC Finance is BDT 22–43 a share, with a base of 31.5 and a probability-weighted value of 31.9; the price on 29-Oct-2026 was 41.4. IDLC is Bangladesh's largest healthy non-bank financial institution (NBFI): solo loans of BDT 122.0bn, deposits of BDT 111.1bn, classified loans of 4.43% and capital adequacy of 17.82% at December 2025 [s1 p.162, p.170, p.324]. It also owns a stockbroker, a merchant bank and an asset manager. Group profit rose 17.3% to BDT 2.07bn in the nine months to September 2026 [3 p.6].

Two numbers drive our view. First, the lending business, measured on solo equity less the BDT 4.1bn cost of the subsidiaries, earned 18.5%, 17.0%, 10.6%, 15.2% and 14.7% in FY2021–25 [s1 p.162; s4 p.115]. We use the median, 15.2%, as the sustainable return. At a 19.3% cost of equity and 6% long-run growth that supports 0.69x adjusted book. Our own FY2027–28F forecast earns less (11.3% normalised) because treasury yields reset to about 9%; we treat that as the cycle low, not the norm. Second, the subsidiaries hold BDT 6.0bn of bonds, which we value at book less a 25% trapped-capital haircut, and run brokerage, merchant-banking and fund businesses that earn about 9.1% on the rest of their equity. Together they add BDT 11.8 a share.

Why the market may pay more than our base. IDLC holds an AAA rating [8]. It won deposits from weaker NBFIs during the sector crisis: +26.7% in FY2025 [1 p.354]. It has paid a cash dividend every year from FY2021 to FY2025 [1 p.162]. At our 15.2% lending ROE the price implies a cost of equity of about 15.2%, against our 19.3%; most of the gap between our base and the price is the discount rate.

Exhibit 1Spread widens to 3.8% in FY2027F as deposits reprice, while investment income stays near half of operating income
%
0510.015.020.0ForecastFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Spread (loan yield - cost of funds)Credit costLending ROE
Data
FY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Spread (loan yield - cost of funds)3.143.623.793.81
Credit cost0.610.690.850.85
Lending ROE14.7115.8011.4611.31
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.326, p.361]; Q3 2026 [3 p.11]; AnalystBro model [15] · Lending ROE = solo profit on solo equity less the BDT 4.1bn cost of the subsidiaries

Bulls say

  • Deposits keep coming: +26.7% in FY2025 and +5.3% in nine months of 2026 to BDT 116.9bn, while borrowings fell from BDT 32.0bn to 26.6bn [s1 p.354; s3 p.9].
  • Nine-month 2026 group profit rose 17.3% to BDT 2.07bn [3 p.6].
  • Bull case: loan growth 5pp faster, deposit and credit costs 0.5pp and 0.3pp lower, subsidiaries' ROE 1.5pp higher and Ke 1pp lower give BDT 43.

Bears say

  • Loans shrank 1.3% in nine months of 2026 to BDT 120.5bn [3 p.9]; profit leans on BDT 34.3bn of government securities whose yields are falling [10].
  • Solo net interest income fell 18% in FY2025 and another 10% in nine months of 2026 [s1 p.326; s3 p.11].
  • Bear case: the same drivers moved the other way give BDT 22; a 90-day classification rule for NBFIs alone gives 27.1.
Exhibit 2Methods and scenarios give BDT 22–43; the price on 29-Oct-2026 was 41.4
10.020.030.040.050.060.0Sum of parts, P/ABV (70%)22.543.3Sum of parts, residual income (30%)20.541.7Scenarios (bear–bull)21.942.852-week range30.548.3Price 41.4Base 31.5
Data
LowHigh
Source: AnalystBro model [15]; DSE prices [9] · Method bars run from the bear to the bull value of each leg
Exhibit 3IDLC rose 35% in two years against 3% for the DSEX
Rebased, Oct-2024 = 100
050.0100150200Oct-24Dec-24Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jul-26Sep-26
IDLCDSEX
Data
Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jul-26Aug-26Sep-26Oct-26
IDLC100.00100.3097.9092.3092.6090.2084.2093.20123.90134.50120.80114.60110.90121.10123.60125.20119.00134.10153.00143.80139.60135.00
DSEX100.0098.9098.6097.2099.0096.9090.3093.10102.90105.1097.4092.6092.9098.0099.70100.0099.80107.70110.40107.60105.20103.00
Source: chart_bars weekly, feed-adjusted for stock dividends [9]

SME loans are 39% of a BDT 122bn book; three subsidiaries add 27% of group profit

IDLC lends to small businesses, companies and households and funds itself with term deposits and cheap refinance. It is licensed by Bangladesh Bank under the Finance Company Act 2023 [1 p.318] and, like every NBFI, cannot take current or savings deposits. At December 2025 the BDT 122.0bn solo loan book was 39% SME (BDT 46.9bn), 34% corporate (BDT 41.6bn) and 27% consumer (BDT 33.5bn) [1 p.285]. By product, long-term finance was BDT 74.9bn, real-estate (mostly home) loans BDT 29.2bn, leases BDT 4.7bn, Islamic financing BDT 4.4bn, factoring BDT 3.2bn and car loans BDT 2.3bn [1 p.345].

Exhibit 4Corporate grew 21% in FY2025 while consumer shrank 5%
BDT bn
050.0100150ForecastFY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
SMECorporateConsumer
Data
FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
SME45.5043.5046.9046.5049.7053.70
Corporate32.4034.2041.6041.1043.6047.10
Consumer35.5035.2033.5032.8034.1036.20
Source: IDLC Annual Reports 2024 [7 p.264] and 2025 [1 p.285]; AnalystBro model [15]

Yields differ by product. In FY2025 term finance earned BDT 9.33bn of interest, real-estate finance 4.21bn, leases 0.84bn, short-term finance 0.38bn and car loans 0.37bn [1 p.361]. On average balances that is about 13.1% on term loans, 14.0% on home loans and 15% on car loans. SME and consumer loans carry the higher rates, and corporate loans funded by Bangladesh Bank refinance the lowest. Mix therefore moves the blended yield: FY2025's corporate growth and consumer shrinkage held the loan yield at 13.0% even as market rates rose.

Exhibit 5Interest income by product, FY2025: term finance BDT 9.3bn, home loans 4.2bn
ProductFY2024 (BDT mn)FY2025 (BDT mn)Balance Dec-25 (BDT mn)
Term finance8,056.09,334.674,926.5
Real-estate (home) finance3,984.24,213.229,166.1
Lease finance398.3844.34,737.1
Short-term finance (factoring)388.6375.13,218.0
Car loans326.6365.52,329.0
Loan against deposits102.1108.9674.7
Interest on loans and leases13,263.115,250.9—
Interest on bank placements1,229.21,067.3—
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.345, p.361] · Islamic products (Ijarah, Murabahah, sale and lease-back: BDT 4.4bn) are inside term finance income lines as reported

The subsidiaries are significant and are valued on their own statements. IDLC Securities is a stockbroker (2.97% of DSE turnover, BDT 4.99bn equity, BDT 351mn profit in FY2025); IDLC Investments is a merchant bank and portfolio manager (BDT 3.81bn equity, BDT 282mn profit); IDLC Asset Management runs four mutual funds and a venture fund (BDT 3.14bn under management, BDT 372mn equity, BDT 30mn profit) [s1 p.195, p.197, p.401-402, p.435-436, p.464-465]. Together they earned BDT 664mn, 27% of group profit, on 42% of group equity. Most of that profit is bond income, not fees: IDLC Securities holds BDT 3.91bn of T-bonds, about 80% of its equity, and its brokerage commission fell to BDT 240mn [s1 p.195, p.401-402]. We value each on its own book and ROE in the valuation section, which is why a sum of the parts applies here.

Exhibit 6Subsidiaries: BDT 9.2bn of equity earning 7.5% in FY2025
BDT mnEquity Dec-24Equity Dec-25Profit FY2024Profit FY2025ROE FY2025
IDLC Securities (broker)4,6344,9853013517.3%
IDLC Investments (merchant bank)3,5233,8062082827.7%
IDLC Asset Management35137216308.4%
Total8,5089,1635246647.5%
Source: Subsidiary audited statements in the IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.401-402, p.435-436, p.464-465] · ROE on average equity. IDLC carries the three at a cost of BDT 4.10bn in its solo balance sheet

Owners. The City Bank group holds 23.2% (City Bank 9.0%, City Bank Capital Resources 9.9%, City Brokerage 4.3%); Eskayef Bangladesh 8.0%, Sadharan Bima Corporation 7.6%, Reliance Insurance 7.0% and Mercantile Bank 5.5% with its securities arm [1 p.261]. The sponsor/director category fell from 56.66% to 35.12% of shares in 2025 while institutions rose from 28.12% to 50.14% [1 p.261]; the report does not explain the reclassification. Loans to companies in which directors have an interest were nil [1 p.349].

Nine NBFIs are being wound up; IDLC took deposits from the weak tier and grew them 26.7% in FY2025

Bangladesh's finance-company sector is split in two. A good tier (IDLC, IPDC, DBH, United, LankaBangla) reports single-digit classified loans and capital above the minimum; the tail has negative equity. As reported by The Business Standard, in November 2025 Bangladesh Bank's board approved winding up nine NBFIs: FAS Finance, BIFC, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing and International Leasing. They held about half of the sector's defaulted loans [14]. Individual depositors of those companies are being repaid principal from a government-backed facility; institutional depositors depend on asset recoveries.

For IDLC the crisis was a funding gain. Deposits rose 26.7% to BDT 111.1bn in FY2025; deposits from institutions other than banks rose 30.2% to BDT 48.7bn and from individuals 22.1% to BDT 58.4bn [1 p.354]. The money went largely into government securities, which rose from BDT 9.1bn to 29.5bn on the solo balance sheet [1 p.324], because loan demand was weak. We assume the flight to quality slows: deposit growth of 5% in FY2026F (H1 was +3.1%) and 8–9% a year after.

Direct exposure to the failing names is not disclosed. IDLC reports BDT 2.76bn 'due from banks and financial institutions' at December 2025 [1 p.349] but not the counterparties; we could not check for placements with the nine wind-up NBFIs (a labelled gap). Contagion would come through funding: institutions supply 44% of IDLC's deposits [1 p.354], and institutional money moves fastest if trust in the whole sector breaks.

Exhibit 7Deposit mix, December 2025: individuals 52.6%, other institutions 43.8%, banks 3.6%
BDT mnDec-2024Dec-2025Growth
Individuals47,84858,4290
Other institutions37,36348,6500
Banks2,4593,9721
Total deposits (solo)87,669111,0510
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [1 p.354] · Growth column is a ratio

Loans shrank 1.3% in nine months of 2026; we forecast -1.3% for FY2026F and 5.8% in FY2027F

Loan growth is set by private credit demand, not by IDLC's funding. The company disbursed BDT 56.2bn of lease and term loans in FY2025, but repayments were almost as large, so the book grew 8.1% [s1 p.162, p.345]. In the nine months to September 2026 it shrank 1.3% to BDT 120.5bn [3 p.9] while private-sector credit demand stayed weak. IDLC's own 2025 report says it chose portfolio quality over expansion [1 p.285].

We forecast each segment from its own driver. SME loans fall 1% in FY2026F, then grow 7% and 8% as rates fall and working-capital demand returns. Corporate loans fall 1% in FY2026F after FY2025's refinance-led 21% jump, then grow 6–8%. Consumer loans, mostly home loans, fall 2% in FY2026F (they fell 5% in FY2025), then grow 4% and 6%; home-loan demand follows mortgage rates with a lag, and real-estate disbursements fell from BDT 9.6bn in FY2022 to 5.5bn in FY2025 [1 p.162]. Total loans reach BDT 137.0bn by FY2028F.

Exhibit 8Loan assumptions by segment: growth returns in FY2027F
GrowthFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
SME-4.5%8.0%-1.0%7.0%8.0%
Corporate5.6%21.4%-1.0%6.0%8.0%
Consumer-0.8%-4.8%-2.0%4.0%6.0%
Total loans-0.4%8.1%-1.3%5.8%7.5%
Source: IDLC Annual Reports [s7 p.264; s1 p.285]; Q3 2026 [3 p.9]; AnalystBro model [15] · Segment balances are the rounded MD&A figures; they sum to the reported loan book within BDT 2mn

Deposits are 78% of funding; their cost falls from 11.3% in FY2025 to 9.4% in FY2027F

Funding is the structural weakness of an NBFI, and IDLC offsets part of it with refinance. At December 2025 deposits were BDT 111.1bn and borrowings BDT 32.0bn, so deposits were 78% of interest-bearing funding [1 p.324]. Half of the borrowings, BDT 16.2bn, is Bangladesh Bank refinance and pre-finance for SME and green lending, plus BDT 2.1bn of the government-backed IPFF line; the rest is short-term bank loans of BDT 10.2bn and term loans [s1 p.352-353]. That refinance is why borrowings cost only about 5.1% in FY2025 against 11.3% for deposits (model, [15]).

Term deposit rates ranged from 9.00% to 12.35% in FY2025 [1 p.354]. Banks paid a weighted average of 6.21% on all deposits in FY2025-26 and lent at 12.13% [10]. The bank average includes cheap current and savings accounts that NBFIs may not offer, so it is not a like-for-like term rate. The policy rate was cut to 9.50% in August 2026 and the 364-day Treasury bill cleared at 8.79% on 26-Oct-2026 [10]. IDLC has to pay at or above the bill rate to keep institutional money, so the bill rate is the floor for its deposit cost.

Exhibit 9IDLC pays more for deposits than banks' all-deposit average and earns about the same on loans
RateFY2025Latest
IDLC cost of deposits11.3%10.4% (FY2026F, model)
IDLC cost of borrowings5.1%BB refinance is half the book
Bank-system average, all deposits incl. current and savings6.3%6.21% (FY2025-26)
364-day Treasury bill cut-off—8.79% (26-Oct-2026)
Policy rate10.0%9.50% (since 2-Aug-2026)
IDLC yield on loans13.0%13.0% (FY2026F, model)
Bank-system average lending rate12.3%12.13% (FY2025-26)
IDLC spread (loan yield - cost of funds)3.1%3.6% (FY2026F)
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.353, p.361]; Q3 2026 [s3 p.9, p.11]; Bangladesh Bank [10] · Bank rates are for the fiscal year to June (2024-25 under FY2025). IDLC FY2026F rates combine the filed nine months with a modelled fourth quarter

Deposit costs are now falling, slowly. In the nine months to September 2026 total interest expense was BDT 10.09bn, against BDT 9.40bn a year earlier, while deposits grew 5.3% [s3 p.9, p.11]; the implied deposit cost is about 10.5% for FY2026F, down from 11.3% in FY2025 (model). 34% of term deposits mature within a year and 60% in one to five years [1 p.354], so repricing takes several quarters. We model the deposit cost at 10.2% for Q4 2026, 9.4% in FY2027F and 8.9% in FY2028F, and loan yields at 13.0%, 12.4% and 12.0%. The cost of funds falls from 9.9% to 8.2%; the spread widens from 3.1% to 3.8%.

Exhibit 10Deposits reprice over one to five years; borrowings mostly within a year
BDT mn, Dec-2025Term depositsBorrowings
Up to 1 month4,9424,667
1–6 months (deposits) / 1–3 months (borrowings)22,1462,677
6–12 months (deposits) / 3–12 months (borrowings)9,68811,115
1–5 years63,78812,211
Over 5 years6,4471,313
Total107,01131,984
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.353-354] · Bucket edges differ between the two notes; each sums to the balance sheet

Treasury income was 38% of FY2025 solo operating income and rises to 49% in FY2026F

FY2025 profit grew on treasury income, not lending. Solo net interest income fell 18% to BDT 3.58bn as deposit costs rose faster than loan yields. Investment income more than doubled to BDT 2.62bn: BDT 1.82bn of bond interest, BDT 350mn of gains on T-bond sales and BDT 396mn of gains on shares [s1 p.326, p.361]. Operating expenses rose 11.8% to BDT 2.90bn, a 42.6% cost-to-income ratio [1 p.326]. The nine months to September 2026 continued the pattern: solo net interest income fell 10.3% to BDT 2.37bn and investment income rose 40.0% to BDT 2.67bn [3 p.11].

Treasury income fades from FY2027F. IDLC held BDT 34.3bn of government securities in September 2026 [3 p.9]. We earn 10.0% on that book in Q4 2026, falling to 9.2% in FY2027F and 8.8% in FY2028F as it rolls into today's yields: 8.79% on the one-year bill and 9.27% on the ten-year bond [10]. Any T-bond gains in 2026 are inside the filed nine-month investment income; we model none after September, because gains are not recurring. Investment income stays near BDT 3.5bn because the book keeps growing with deposits, but it no longer grows faster than lending income.

Exhibit 11Operating income: NII recovers to BDT 3.5bn by FY2028F; treasury stays near half
BDT bn
02468ForecastFY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Net interest incomeInvestment incomeFees and other
Data
FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Net interest income4.393.583.153.323.54
Investment income1.212.623.573.483.67
Fees and other0.630.610.570.620.66
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [1 p.326]; Q3 2026 [3 p.11]; AnalystBro model [15]

Fees and other income are mostly loan processing fees (BDT 379mn in FY2025) and recoveries of written-off loans (BDT 105mn) [1 p.362]; we keep them at 0.50% of loans. Staff costs run at the nine-month rate in Q4 2026 (9M +11.1%) and grow 7–8% after; other costs 6% a year. Cost-to-income rises from 41.9% in FY2026F to 44.4% in FY2028F because treasury income stops growing.

Exhibit 12Earnings model: solo profit before provisions of BDT 4.14bn in FY2027F
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Interest income———14,49216,32116,57716,17316,696
Interest on loans and leases (incl. loan against deposit)———13,26315,25115,71215,37015,867
Interest on bank placements and other———1,2291,070864803829
Interest paid on deposits and borrowings———10,10312,74013,42312,85513,156
Interest on term and security deposits———8,59511,20111,93611,50811,824
Interest on borrowings, bonds, call loans and leases———1,5081,5391,4871,3471,332
Net interest income———4,3893,5813,1543,3183,540
Investment income———1,2082,6183,5723,4783,674
Government securities and bonds (coupon)———7301,8193,3913,3523,548
Gains on T-bond sales———206350000
Dividends and gains on shares———273449181126126
Fees, commission and other operating income———627606570620661
Total operating income5,8705,5005,3386,2256,8057,2957,4157,874
Staff cost (salaries + MD)———1,6501,8281,9972,1562,307
Other operating expenses———9451,0731,0591,1221,190
Total operating expenses2,2182,4152,5302,5952,9013,0553,2793,497
Profit before provisions3,6523,0852,8083,6303,9054,2404,1374,377
Total provisions9091,0061,0066887168321,0541,124
Profit before tax2,7432,0791,8022,9423,1883,4073,0833,254
Tax1,1674597081,2691,4111,5551,4181,497
Q4 true-up to the 9M run-rate (FY2026F only; F03 Q4 rule)0000025900
Net profit after tax (solo)1,5761,6201,0941,6731,7772,1111,6651,757
Subsidiaries' net profit———524664964789851
Group net profit (solo + subsidiaries)2,1161,9151,5142,1982,4413,0742,4542,607
Solo EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares)3.443.532.393.653.884.613.633.83
Group EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares)4.624.183.304.795.336.715.355.69
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)———1.361.431.701.341.42

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.162, p.326]; Q3 2026 [3 p.11]; AnalystBro model [15]

Classified loans 4.43% with 90% cover; we assume credit cost of 0.85%

IDLC's asset quality is among the best in the sector and stable. Classified loans were BDT 5.41bn, 4.43% of the solo book, at December 2025: BDT 0.88bn sub-standard, 0.69bn doubtful and 3.83bn bad/loss [1 p.349]. The ratio has held at 4.4–4.5% for three years (3.05% in FY2021) [1 p.162]. Special-mention loans, the early-warning bucket, were BDT 1.83bn, 1.5% of loans [1 p.349]. The condensed interims we read do not give the ratio.

Loan provisions held were BDT 3.93bn and interest suspense BDT 0.94bn, 90% of classified loans [s1 p.316, p.355]. That leaves BDT 536mn of classified loans uncovered; our adjusted book deducts half of it in the base case. In FY2025 BDT 309mn was written off and BDT 105mn recovered from earlier write-offs [1 p.349]. Interest received in cash was 99.1% of interest income [1 p.327], so the F03 income-quality flag is not tripped.

Exhibit 13Classification: bad/loss is 71% of classified loans
BDT mnDec-2024Dec-2025
Standard (incl. staff loans)106,102114,752
Special mention (SMA)1,7231,828
Sub-standard657882
Doubtful708688
Bad/loss3,6593,835
Classified loans5,0235,406
Classified ratio4.5%4.4%
Loan provisions held3,8723,930
Interest suspense795940
(Provisions + suspense) / classified92.9%90.1%
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.316, p.349, p.355]

Regulation is the swing factor. IDLC classifies under DFIM Circular 04 of July 2021 [12]: a term loan becomes sub-standard at three months overdue, doubtful at nine and bad/loss at twelve, with provisions of 20%, 50% and 100%. Banks moved to a uniform 90-day rule in 2025; whether Bangladesh Bank will extend it to NBFIs is not confirmed, and we found no such DFIM circular in our sources. Our stress row assumes it does: classified loans rise to 6.5% / 8.5% / 9.5% and credit cost rises 0.6pp (a risk row, outside the symmetric scenarios). In the base case credit cost is 0.80% for Q4 2026, 0.85% in FY2027F and 0.85% in FY2028F, against 0.61% in FY2024–25 and a FY2021–25 average of 0.82%; the nine months to September ran at 0.65% annualised (BDT 592mn) [3 p.11].

Exhibit 14Credit cost: 0.69% in FY2026F and 0.85% by FY2028F, near the FY2021–25 average
Credit cost (provisions / avg loans)FY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Bear—————0.9%1.1%1.1%
Base1.0%1.0%0.9%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.9%0.9%
Bull—————0.7%0.5%0.5%
Source: IDLC Annual Reports [s1 p.162; s7 p.29]; Q3 2026 [3 p.11]; AnalystBro model [15] · FY2021-23 provisions = operating income - opex - PBT, on the loan-portfolio series; scenario FY2026F cells are the Q4 rate

Capital adequacy of 17.8% funds a 37% cash payout plus 5% stock dividends; no rights issue in 24 months

Capital is not the constraint. Solo capital adequacy was 17.82% at December 2025 (Tier-1 BDT 16.73bn, Tier-2 BDT 1.00bn of general provision, on BDT 99.5bn of risk-weighted assets), and 22.30% for the group, against a 10% minimum [1 p.170]. On our path the solo ratio is 18.9% in FY2026F and 18.2% in FY2028F. Leverage is about 9.8x average assets to equity, high for an ROE near 11%.

Capital actions in the last 24 months were dividends only. The DSE news file from November 2024 to October 2026 shows 15% cash and 5% stock dividends for FY2024 (declared April 2025) and the same for FY2025 (declared March 2026, AGM 14-May-2026, cash paid June 2026), an ECRL AAA rating affirmed twice, and quarterly results; no rights issue, placement, bond issue or change in authorised capital [8]. The stock dividends raised paid-up capital from BDT 4.16bn to 4.58bn [s1 p.324; s3 p.9]; the board said they support portfolio growth [8]. IDLC also moved BDT 500mn into a dividend-equalisation reserve in 2025 [1 p.362].

Rules that bind dividends. Under the Finance Company Act, 20% of profit goes to a statutory reserve until it equals paid-up capital: BDT 355mn in FY2025 [1 p.326]. The 10% capital minimum applies [1 p.170]. A BSEC order of February 2024 lets listed companies pay interim cash dividends but excludes banks, insurers and NBFIs [13 p.2]. We searched the Bangladesh Bank circular collection for a DFIM rule on NBFI cash dividends, like the banks' payout caps, and found none; this is a labelled gap. IDLC's capital ratio leaves room either way. We model a 37% cash payout of solo profit (FY2025: 36.8%), DPS of BDT 1.70 for FY2026F and 1.34 for FY2027F, and do not model further stock dividends; a 5% stock dividend each year would cut per-share values by about 5% a year without changing value.

Exhibit 15Group ROE 11.7% in FY2025 falls to 9.8% in FY2027F as treasury income fades
FY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
ROE, group (company figure for history)13.2%11.1%8.3%10.3%11.7%13.4%9.8%9.7%
ROE, solo12.5%11.9%7.6%11.1%11.0%12.1%8.9%8.9%
ROE, lending business (ex subsidiaries)————14.7%15.8%11.5%11.3%
ROA, solo1.2%1.2%0.8%1.2%1.1%1.2%0.9%0.9%
Capital adequacy, solo————17.8%18.9%18.5%18.2%
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [s1 p.161-162, p.170]; AnalystBro model [15] · History: company-reported ROE and ROA (annual report 2025, five-year tables); FY2025 onward are model figures on average equity

We forecast group profit of BDT 3.07bn in FY2026F, 2.45bn in FY2027F and 2.61bn in FY2028F

FY2026F starts from the filed nine months. Group profit was BDT 2,067mn in January–September 2026 and BDT 697mn in the third quarter alone [3 p.6]; solo profit was BDT 1,419mn [3 p.11], so the subsidiaries earned BDT 648mn. Following the F03 method, the fourth quarter is the nine-month run-rate (BDT 689mn a quarter) times IDLC's historical fourth-quarter true-up: Q4 profit was 1.38x, 1.54x, 1.79x and 1.14x the Q1–Q3 average in FY2022–25 [s5 p.235; s6 p.243; s7 p.264; s8], a median of 1.46x across those four years (FY2021 quarters were not read). That gives a Q4 of about BDT 1,007mn and FY2026F group profit of BDT 3,074mn (EPS 6.71). The Q4 lift has come from year-end tax and provision true-ups (in FY2022 the fourth-quarter tax line was a credit) [5 p.235]; it is a pattern, not a guarantee. If Q4 repeats FY2025's lower 1.14x, FY2026F group profit is about BDT 2,853mn (EPS 6.23) and the base value BDT 31.4.

Group EPS is 5.35 in FY2027F and 5.69 in FY2028F on 458.3mn shares. FY2027F falls because T-bond gains stop, treasury yields reset lower and there is no year-end true-up in our run-rate years; the wider spread and loan growth lift FY2028F. The Daily Star reported that the third quarter repeated the pattern of lower net interest income and higher investment income [11]; the filed figures confirm it: solo NII fell 10.3% and investment income rose 40.0% in nine months [3 p.11].

Exhibit 16Key assumptions: deposit costs fall faster than loan yields; treasury yields reset
DriverFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028FWhy
Loan growth8.1%-1.3%5.8%7.5%Weak private credit; 9M -1.3%
Deposit growth26.7%6.0%8.0%9.0%Flight to quality fades
Yield on loans13.0%13.0%12.4%12.0%Repricing 2–4Q after the Aug-2026 cut
Cost of deposits11.3%10.4%9.4%8.9%34% of term deposits reprice within a year
Yield on government securities (coupon)9.4%10.0%9.2%8.8%Converges to the 9.27% ten-year bond
Credit cost0.6%0.7%0.9%0.9%FY2021–25 average 0.82%
Subsidiaries' ROE7.5%10.0%7.5%7.5%Bond income; brokerage volumes
Cash payout (solo profit)36.8%37.0%37.0%37.0%15% cash dividends FY24-25
Source: IDLC filings [s1; s3]; Bangladesh Bank [10]; AnalystBro model [15] · FY2026F rates are full-year model outputs (Ratios sheet) except the government-securities yield, which is the Q4 input
Exhibit 17Quarterly solo profit: BDT 464mn in 3Q26 and 691mn in 4Q26F with the year-end true-up
BDT mn
0200400600800Forecast1Q253Q251Q263Q261Q27F3Q27F1Q28F3Q28F
Data
1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q264Q26F1Q27F2Q27F3Q27F4Q27F1Q28F2Q28F3Q28F4Q28F
Net profit after tax (solo)368.00526.00471.00413.00424.90530.40464.00691.30344.60492.60441.00386.70363.60519.80465.40408.10
Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [1 p.285]; H1 2026 [2 p.11]; Q3 2026 [3 p.11]; AnalystBro model [15] · 2027-28 quarters apply the 2025 quarterly profile to each forecast year
Exhibit 18FY2026F group profit of BDT 3,074mn: nine-month actual plus a historically sized fourth quarter
Group net profit, BDT mnValue
Nine months 2026 (filed)2,067
Nine months 2025 (filed)1,763
Q4 2025 (FY2025 2,434 less 9M 1,763)671
Five-year average (FY2021–25, reported)1,996
Our FY2026F3,074
Our FY2027F2,454
Our FY2028F2,607
Source: IDLC filings [s1 p.161; s3 p.6]; AnalystBro model [15] · No consensus forecasts exist; management gave no numeric guidance in the annual report
Exhibit 19Balance sheet: government securities absorb the deposits that loans do not use
BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Loan book by segment (solo)
SME loans——45,50043,45046,94046,47149,72453,701
Corporate loans——32,39034,22041,55241,13643,60547,093
Consumer loans (home, car, personal)——35,45035,18033,49432,82434,13736,185
Assets
Cash, BB balance and placements with banks———10,85210,6549,41710,17011,086
Government securities (plug in forecast)———9,13429,47135,22239,39743,465
Other investments (shares, corporate bonds)———2,3062,4272,1002,1002,100
Loans, advances and leases——113,340112,850121,986120,431127,465136,980
Investment in subsidiaries (at cost)———4,1004,1004,1004,1004,100
Fixed assets, other assets and non-banking assets (ex subsidiaries)———3,5834,2865,3005,5655,843
Total assets136,756143,868142,877142,825172,925176,570188,797203,573
Liabilities and equity
Deposits (term + security/other deposits)———87,669111,051117,714127,131138,573
Borrowings (BB refinance, bank loans, bonds)———27,91431,98426,54627,34328,163
Other liabilities (incl. provisions, interest suspense, tax)———11,60213,16214,12615,25616,629
Shareholders' equity (solo)13,12714,15314,62315,63716,72818,18419,06820,209
Total liabilities and equity———142,822172,924176,570188,797203,573
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)———20000
Lending equity (solo equity - investment in subsidiaries)9,02710,05310,52311,53712,62814,08414,96816,109
Asset quality and capital
Classified loans (SS + DF + BL)———5,0235,4065,5406,1186,575
Loan-loss provisions held (specific + general)———3,8723,9304,3995,0805,808
Interest suspense on loans———7959409691,0711,151
Net classified loans (classified - provisions - suspense)———356536172-33-383
Risk-weighted assets————99,464101,528108,559117,055
Tier-2 capital————9991,0301,0501,080
Cash dividend declared for the year———624655781616650

From the Balance sheet tab of the model.

Source: IDLC Annual Report 2025 [1 p.324]; Q3 2026 [3 p.9]; AnalystBro model [15]

Fair value range BDT 22–43: 0.69x lending book, subsidiaries' bonds at 75% of book

Sum of the parts applies because the subsidiaries are 42% of group book and 27% of profit and earn a different return. We value the lending business on its adjusted book and sustainable ROE, and the subsidiaries in two pieces: their bonds at book less a trapped-capital haircut and their operating businesses on their own return. The lending book is solo equity less the BDT 4.10bn cost of the subsidiaries (the cost has been BDT 4.10bn in every year since at least FY2020 [s4 p.284; s6 p.299; s1 p.351]), BDT 12.36bn at December 2025 after deducting half of the BDT 536mn of uncovered classified loans.

Sustainable lending ROE comes from IDLC's own history on the same basis. Solo profit over average solo equity less the subsidiary cost was 18.5%, 17.0%, 10.6%, 15.2% and 14.7% in FY2021–25, a median of 15.2% and a range of 10.6%–18.5%; FY2018–20 were higher still, 21.6–29.1%, when funding cost less [s4 p.115; s1 p.162]. We use the FY2021–25 median, 15.2%. Our explicit forecast earns less: normalised FY2028F (credit cost at the FY2021–25 average of 0.82%, tax at the 46.5% average) gives 11.3%, close to the FY2023 low. Why now differs: T-bond gains and 12%+ bill yields lifted FY2024–25, and both are gone, while deposit costs are still repricing down. We treat our forecast years as the low part of a cycle that the median spans. Scenarios shift ROE_s by the change in the model's normalised ROE, bounded by the FY2021–25 range.

One formula for growth, payout and value. P/ABV = (ROE_s − g) / (Ke − g), with g = 6% (F03 range 6–7%) and payout = 1 − g / ROE_s = 60%. That gives 0.69x. Because ROE_s is below Ke, retaining profit to grow destroys some value: with no growth and full payout the multiple would be 0.79x (BDT 3.0 a share more on the lending leg). We keep g at 6% because the loan book has to grow with nominal GDP and capital rules require retention. The residual-income terminal uses the same multiple, so the RI leg is not an independent check on the P/ABV leg; it differs only through the FY2026–28F residual income. The terminal is -38% of the lending residual-income value (negative because ROE_s < Ke).

Subsidiaries. IDLC Securities holds BDT 3.91bn of T-bonds and IDLC Investments BDT 2.08bn of bonds [s1 p.401, p.435]: BDT 5.99bn of surplus capital. It is not freely available to IDLC: the subsidiaries paid the parent only BDT 110mn in FY2024 (IDLC Investments) and nothing in FY2025 [s1 p.403, p.437, p.466], and they must hold capital under BSEC's risk-based capital rules [1 p.362]. We therefore value the bonds at book less a 25% trapped-capital haircut (our assumption): at no haircut the base would be BDT 34.8, at 50% BDT 28.3. The operating businesses (broking, merchant banking and portfolio management, fund management) earn an estimated 9.1% on the remaining equity in FY2028F (total subsidiary ROE of 7.5% less a 6% after-tax bond yield). We use the parent's formula, (ROE − g)/(Ke − g), with their actual payout: 10% on average in FY2024–25, so g = ROE x retention, capped at the parent's 6% because no business can outgrow the economy forever: 6.0%. Because ROE is below Ke, that retention leaves almost no value: 0.23x, BDT 0.92bn. Subsidiaries in total: BDT 5.41bn, or BDT 11.8 a share.

On the price-to-adjusted-book method the parts come to BDT 32.2 a share; on residual income BDT 29.9. Weighted 70 / 30, the base is BDT 31.5, 0.60x FY2026F group book and 5.9x FY2027F EPS. The own price-to-book band is dropped (its pre-2024 years include the DSE floor-price period) and there is no peer leg because we did not read peers' filings on the same basis. Reconciling P/E and dividends: at ROE_s 15.2%, payout 60% and g 6%, the justified P/E on normalised lending earnings is payout / (Ke − g) = 4.5x, the same as 0.69x book divided by 15.2%; a dividend-discount view with the same payout and g gives the same number.

Exhibit 20Lending ROE on the lending basis: median 15.2% in FY2021–25
FY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Lending ROE (solo NPAT / avg solo equity less 4,100)18.5%17.0%10.6%15.2%14.7%15.8%11.5%11.3%
Solo ROE (company figure, equity includes subsidiaries at cost)12.5%11.9%7.6%11.1%11.0%———
Sustainable lending ROE used (bear / base / bull)—————12.0% / 15.2% / 18.0%——
Source: IDLC Annual Reports [s4 p.115; s1 p.162]; subsidiary cost [1 p.351]; AnalystBro model [15]
Exhibit 21Cost of equity 19.3%: Rf 9.27% + beta 1.20 x 7.5% + 1% NBFI premium
InputValueSource / reason
Risk-free: 10-year T-bond cut-off (25-Oct-2026)9.3%Bangladesh Bank
Raw beta, 2 years weekly vs DSEX1.30105 weekly returns (beta.py)
Beta used (Blume-adjusted)1.200.67 x raw + 0.33
Equity risk premium7.5%House value, range 6-8%
NBFI premium (A-category)1.0%F03 method
Cost of equity used19.3%Bear +1pp, bull -1pp
Long-run growth g (P/ABV and RI terminal)6.0%Payout 1 - g / ROE_s
Source: Bangladesh Bank treasury page [10]; chart_bars weekly [9]; AnalystBro model [15] · The F03 NBFI premium partly overlaps the beta, which is measured on IDLC's own returns; we keep it because the sector carries wind-up and depositor-run risk that a 2-year beta of a calm period does not capture. At beta 1.0 the cost of equity would be 17.8%
Exhibit 22Sum-of-the-parts bridge: base BDT 31.5 per share
BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
A. Lending business (solo, ex subsidiaries)
Lending equity 31-Dec-2025 (solo 16,728 - subsidiaries at cost 4,100)12,628——
Less: h x net classified loans (if positive) 31-Dec-2025268——
Adjusted lending book (ABV) 31-Dec-202512,360——
Solo net profit2,1111,6651,757
Opening lending equity12,62814,08414,968
Equity charge (Ke x opening lending equity)2,4372,7182,889
Residual income-327-1,053-1,132
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.840.700.59
PV of residual income-274-740-667
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F-1,681——
Normalised credit cost: average FY2021-250.8%——
Normalised tax rate: average FY2021-2546.5%——
Normalised FY2028F profit: (PPOP - normalised credit cost x avg loans) x (1 - normalised tax)1,757——
Normalised lending ROE (normalised profit / avg lending equity FY2027-28F)11.3%——
Memo: base-case normalised lending ROE (model)11.3%——
Lending ROE history FY2021-25: median15.2%——
Lending ROE history FY2021-25: low10.6%——
Lending ROE history FY2021-25: high18.5%——
Sustainable lending ROE: history median + scenario shift (model), bounded by the FY21-25 range15.2%——
Terminal payout consistent with g: 1 - g / ROE_s60.4%——
Memo: no-growth alternative ROE_s / Ke (full payout, g = 0)0.8x——
Justified P/ABV: (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.7x——
Lending equity 31-Dec-202816,109——
PV of terminal excess return ((P/ABV - 1) x book FY28 x DF)-2,948——
Lending residual-income value 31-Dec-20257,731——
Lending ABV 31-Dec-2026F (lending book - h x net classified if positive)13,998——
Lending value, P/ABV method: justified P/ABV x ABV FY26F, discounted 62 days9,363——
Lending value, RI method: rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid8,297——
B. Subsidiaries (each on its own audited book; capital-market businesses)
Subsidiaries' total ROE FY2028F (+ shift)7.5%——
Bonds held by the subsidiaries (surplus capital), 31-Dec-20255,987——
After-tax yield on those bonds, FY2028F6.0%——
Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2026F10,126——
Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2028F11,766——
Operating ROE ex bonds: (total ROE x book FY28 - bonds x after-tax yield) / (book FY28 - bonds)9.1%——
Subsidiaries' historical payout to the parent (average FY2024-25)10.5%——
Subsidiaries' growth g = MIN(operating ROE x (1 - payout), long-run g)6.0%——
Operating businesses' justified P/B: (ROE - g) / (Ke - g)0.2x——
Trapped-capital haircut on the subsidiaries' bonds25.0%——
Operating businesses' value (P/B x (book FY26F - bonds), discounted 62 days)922——
Subsidiaries' value: bonds at book less haircut + operating businesses5,412——
C. Per share
Sum of the parts on the P/ABV method (BDT/share)32.24——
Sum of the parts on the RI method (BDT/share)29.91——
Of which subsidiaries (BDT/share)11.81——
Weight: justified P/ABV70.0%——
Weight: residual income30.0%——
Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT)31.54——
Terminal share of lending residual-income value-38.1%——
Group book 31-Dec-2026F24,210——
Implied P/B on group book FY26F0.6x——
Implied P/E FY2026F (group)4.7——
Implied P/E FY2027F (group)5.9——
Implied cash dividend yield FY2027F4.3%——
Price / group book FY26F0.8x——
Lending value implied by the price (market cap - subsidiaries' value)13,561——
Price-implied P/ABV of the lending business1.0x——
Reverse check: lending ROE the price needs at our Ke (g + P/ABV x (Ke - g))19.3%——
Reverse check: Ke the price implies at our ROE_s (g + (ROE_s - g) / P/ABV)15.2%——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend22.4520.5521.88
Base: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend32.2429.9131.54
Bull: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend43.2541.6842.78
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)31.94——

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: AnalystBro model [15]
Exhibit 23Bear BDT 21.9 / base 31.5 / bull 42.8: the same five drivers moved symmetrically; probability-weighted 31.9
Bear (25%)Base (50%)Bull (25%)
Loan growth FY2027F (SME / corporate / consumer)2% / 1% / -1%7% / 6% / 4%12% / 11% / 9%
Cost of deposits FY2027F9.9%9.4%8.9%
Credit cost FY2027F1.1%0.9%0.5%
Classified ratio FY2028F5.8%4.8%3.8%
Subsidiaries' ROE FY2027-28F6.0%7.5%9.0%
Cost of equity20.3%19.3%18.3%
Sustainable lending ROE (bounded by FY2021–25)12.0%15.2%18.0%
Group EPS FY2027F (BDT)3.685.357.08
Fair value (BDT per share)21.931.542.8
Source: AnalystBro model, workbook recalculations [15] · Bear and bull move each driver by the same amount in opposite directions in FY2027-28F (loan growth 5pp, deposit cost 0.5pp, credit cost 0.3pp, classified ratio 1pp, subsidiaries' ROE 1.5pp, Ke 1pp); FY2026F is anchored on the filed nine months
Exhibit 24Each 1pp of cost of equity moves the base by about BDT 1.9; each 1.5pp of lending ROE by about 3.2
Ke \ ROE_s12.2%13.7%15.2%16.7%18.2%
Ke 17.3%28.131.835.639.443.1
Ke 18.3%26.630.033.436.840.3
Ke 19.3%25.228.431.534.737.8
Ke 20.3%24.127.029.932.935.8
Ke 21.3%23.125.828.531.334.0
Source: AnalystBro model, workbook recalculations [15]
Exhibit 25A 1pp rise in deposit cost costs BDT 9.4 a share; 1pp more credit cost costs 9.4
Deposit cost \ credit cost (FY27-28)-1.0pp-0.5pp+0.0pp+0.5pp+1.0pp
Deposit cost -1.0pp39.639.439.136.031.6
Deposit cost -0.5pp39.339.136.031.627.0
Deposit cost +0.0pp39.036.031.526.922.1
Deposit cost +0.5pp36.131.526.922.121.6
Deposit cost +1.0pp31.626.922.121.621.4
Source: AnalystBro model, workbook recalculations [15] · Shocks apply to FY2027F and FY2028F and carry into the scenario ROE shift; credit-cost shocks also shift the long-run credit cost

What the price implies. At 41.4, IDLC trades at 0.78x FY2026F group book and 6.2x FY2026F EPS. Taking our subsidiary value as given, the price values the lending business at 1.00x adjusted book. With g at 6%, that needs a sustainable lending ROE of 19.3% at our cost of equity, above IDLC's FY2021–25 range of 10.6%–18.5% (only FY2018–20, at 21.6–29.1%, were higher), or a cost of equity of about 15.2% at our 15.2% ROE.

One point on deposit costs or loan yields cuts FY2027F EPS to about 3.91 and value to BDT 22.1

Leverage of about 10x turns small rate moves into large profit moves. Each risk below is a workbook recalculation with one driver changed from the base case (FY2027F group EPS 5.35, fair value 31.5). Deposit cost, loan yield and credit cost each act on a BDT 115–135bn base, so a 1pp move shifts about BDT 1.2–1.3bn of pre-tax profit against FY2027F group profit of BDT 2.45bn. These 1pp shocks are larger than the moves in our bear and bull cases, so some single rows sit below the bear value.

Exhibit 26Eight quantified risks: deposit cost, loan yields and credit cost matter most
Risk (line moved)FY2027F group EPS (BDT)Fair value (BDT)LikelihoodSignal to watch
Deposit costs stay 1pp higher (no further rate cuts; NBFI deposit run) - cost of deposits3.9122.1MediumInterest expense / deposits above 10%
Loan yields reprice 1pp lower - interest on loans3.8922.1MediumInterest income / loans
Credit cost 1pp higher in FY2027-28F - provisions3.8922.1Low-mediumProvision charge above BDT 400mn a quarter
90-day classification rule for NBFIs: classified 6.5 / 8.5 / 9.5%, credit cost +0.6pp - provisions4.4827.1MediumDFIM circulars
Treasury yields 1.5pp lower - investment income4.7127.4Medium364-day bill below 7.5%
Capital-market slump: subsidiaries' ROE 4% - subsidiaries' profit and value4.5329.6MediumDSE turnover; DSEX
Loan growth stops in FY2027-28F - loan book and interest5.2429.2LowQuarterly loan book
Deposit growth stops after FY2026F - government securities book5.3731.0LowQuarterly deposits
Source: AnalystBro model, workbook recalculations [15] · The 1pp shocks on deposit cost, loan yield and credit cost are larger than the scenario moves (0.5pp, none, 0.3pp), so a single row can sit below the bear case. Credit-cost and classification shocks also raise the long-run credit cost. Slower loan or deposit growth lowers value only slightly because our multiple assigns no value to growth

Two risks we cannot size. First, sector contagion: a disorderly wind-up of the nine NBFIs could make institutional depositors, 44% of IDLC's deposits [1 p.354], cautious about the whole sector. Second, counterparty exposure: we could not see whether any of the BDT 2.76bn due from banks and financial institutions [1 p.349] sits with the wind-up names. As an opportunity, the subsidiaries' bond-heavy balance sheets hold surplus capital that could be paid up to the parent and redeployed.

  • FY2026 annual results (expected March 2027): group profit near BDT 3.07bn and the dividend; a cash dividend below 15% would signal a capital or rule change.
  • Bangladesh Bank monetary policy statements (quarterly from Q4 2026): a further cut speeds deposit repricing.
  • Any DFIM circular shortening the overdue periods for NBFI loan classification or setting NBFI dividend limits.
  • Progress of the nine NBFI wind-ups and depositor repayments.

Data cut-off and next update

  • Latest period used: nine months to 30-Sep-2026 (IDLC Q3 2026 condensed statements, unaudited) [3].
  • We will update the model when the FY2026 annual report is filed.

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

DriverFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Shares outstanding (mn)458.3———————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)41.40———————
Scenario drivers
SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bear—————-3.0%2.0%3.0%
SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - base—————-1.0%7.0%8.0%
SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bull—————1.0%12.0%13.0%
SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - active—————-1.0%7.0%8.0%
Corporate loan growth - bear—————-3.0%1.0%3.0%
Corporate loan growth - base—————-1.0%6.0%8.0%
Corporate loan growth - bull—————1.0%11.0%13.0%
Corporate loan growth - active—————-1.0%6.0%8.0%
Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - bear—————-4.0%-1.0%1.0%
Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - base—————-2.0%4.0%6.0%
Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - bull—————0.0%9.0%11.0%
Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - active—————-2.0%4.0%6.0%
Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - bear—————13.0%12.4%12.0%
Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - base—————13.0%12.4%12.0%
Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - bull—————13.0%12.4%12.0%
Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - active—————13.0%12.4%12.0%
Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - bear—————10.4%9.9%9.4%
Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - base—————10.2%9.4%8.9%
Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - bull—————10.0%8.9%8.4%
Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - active—————10.2%9.4%8.9%
Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - bear—————10.0%9.2%8.8%
Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - base—————10.0%9.2%8.8%
Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - bull—————10.0%9.2%8.8%
Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - active—————10.0%9.2%8.8%
Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bear—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - base—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bull—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - active—————6.0%8.0%9.0%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear—————0.9%1.1%1.1%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base—————0.8%0.9%0.9%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull—————0.7%0.5%0.5%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active—————0.8%0.9%0.9%
Effective tax rate - bear—————47.0%46.0%46.0%
Effective tax rate - base—————47.0%46.0%46.0%
Effective tax rate - bull—————47.0%46.0%46.0%
Effective tax rate - active—————47.0%46.0%46.0%
Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - bear—————37.0%37.0%37.0%
Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - base—————37.0%37.0%37.0%
Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - bull—————37.0%37.0%37.0%
Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - active—————37.0%37.0%37.0%
Classified loan ratio (year end) - bear—————5.0%5.8%5.8%
Classified loan ratio (year end) - base—————4.6%4.8%4.8%
Classified loan ratio (year end) - bull—————4.2%3.8%3.8%
Classified loan ratio (year end) - active—————4.6%4.8%4.8%
Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - bear—————8.8%6.0%6.0%
Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - base—————8.8%7.5%7.5%
Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - bull—————8.8%9.0%9.0%
Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - active—————8.8%7.5%7.5%
Single-path drivers
Cost of borrowings, bonds, call and leases (interest / avg borrowings)—————5.2%5.0%4.8%
Yield on cash and bank placements—————9.0%8.2%7.8%
Income on other investments (dividends + share gains) / avg other investments—————8.0%6.0%6.0%
Gains on T-bond sales (BDT mn)—————000
Fees and other operating income / avg loans—————0.5%0.5%0.5%
Staff cost growth (incl. MD)—————10.0%8.0%7.0%
Other opex growth—————6.0%6.0%6.0%
Borrowings growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25)—————-17.0%3.0%3.0%
Cash and placements / deposits—————8.0%8.0%8.0%
Other investments (shares, corporate bonds; BDT mn)—————2,1002,1002,100
Fixed and other assets ex subsidiaries (FY2026F: level, BDT mn)—————5,300——
Fixed and other assets growth——————5.0%5.0%
Other liabilities / deposits—————12.0%12.0%12.0%
RWA density (RWA / total assets)—————57.5%57.5%57.5%
Tier-2 capital (general provision, BDT mn)—————1,0301,0501,080
Write-offs / avg loans—————0.3%0.3%0.3%
Interest suspense / classified loans—————17.5%17.5%17.5%
30-Sep-2026 solo actuals that anchor FY2026F (9M = Jan-Sep 2026)
Loans, advances and leases 30-Sep-2026120,453.0———————
Deposits (term + other) 30-Sep-2026116,934.3———————
Borrowings 30-Sep-202626,553.9———————
Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-202617,498.0———————
Government securities 30-Sep-202634,339.2———————
Cash, BB balance and bank placements 30-Sep-20268,860.2———————
9M 2026 interest income12,456.7———————
9M 2026 interest expense10,086.2———————
9M 2026 investment income (incl. any T-bond gains)2,674.8———————
9M 2026 fees, commission and other operating income428.2———————
9M 2026 staff cost (salaries + MD)1,497.4———————
9M 2026 other operating expenses794.2———————
9M 2026 total provisions591.6———————
9M 2026 profit before tax2,590.5———————
9M 2026 tax1,171.2———————
9M 2026 net profit after tax1,419.2———————
9M 2026 subsidiaries' profit (group 2,067.2 - solo 1,419.2)648.0———————
9M 2026 group profit (consolidated)2,067.2———————
9M 2026 subsidiaries' profit (group - solo)648.0———————
Q4 true-up: group Q4 / (9M / 3), median FY2022-251.46———————
Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E)
Cost of equity scenario adjustment1.0%0.0%-1.0%0.0%————
Long-run growth g (terminal)6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%————
Adjustment to sustainable lending ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Haircut h on net classified loans (after provisions and suspense)50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%————
Shift to the long-run (normalised) credit cost0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————
Shift to the subsidiaries' sustainable ROE0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%————

Income statement

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Interest income———14,49216,32116,57716,17316,696
Interest on loans and leases (incl. loan against deposit)———13,26315,25115,71215,37015,867
Interest on bank placements and other———1,2291,070864803829
Interest paid on deposits and borrowings———10,10312,74013,42312,85513,156
Interest on term and security deposits———8,59511,20111,93611,50811,824
Interest on borrowings, bonds, call loans and leases———1,5081,5391,4871,3471,332
Net interest income———4,3893,5813,1543,3183,540
Investment income———1,2082,6183,5723,4783,674
Government securities and bonds (coupon)———7301,8193,3913,3523,548
Gains on T-bond sales———206350000
Dividends and gains on shares———273449181126126
Fees, commission and other operating income———627606570620661
Total operating income5,8705,5005,3386,2256,8057,2957,4157,874
Staff cost (salaries + MD)———1,6501,8281,9972,1562,307
Other operating expenses———9451,0731,0591,1221,190
Total operating expenses2,2182,4152,5302,5952,9013,0553,2793,497
Profit before provisions3,6523,0852,8083,6303,9054,2404,1374,377
Total provisions9091,0061,0066887168321,0541,124
Profit before tax2,7432,0791,8022,9423,1883,4073,0833,254
Tax1,1674597081,2691,4111,5551,4181,497
Q4 true-up to the 9M run-rate (FY2026F only; F03 Q4 rule)0000025900
Net profit after tax (solo)1,5761,6201,0941,6731,7772,1111,6651,757
Subsidiaries' net profit———524664964789851
Group net profit (solo + subsidiaries)2,1161,9151,5142,1982,4413,0742,4542,607
Solo EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares)3.443.532.393.653.884.613.633.83
Group EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares)4.624.183.304.795.336.715.355.69
Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares)———1.361.431.701.341.42

Balance sheet

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Loan book by segment (solo)
SME loans——45,50043,45046,94046,47149,72453,701
Corporate loans——32,39034,22041,55241,13643,60547,093
Consumer loans (home, car, personal)——35,45035,18033,49432,82434,13736,185
Assets
Cash, BB balance and placements with banks———10,85210,6549,41710,17011,086
Government securities (plug in forecast)———9,13429,47135,22239,39743,465
Other investments (shares, corporate bonds)———2,3062,4272,1002,1002,100
Loans, advances and leases——113,340112,850121,986120,431127,465136,980
Investment in subsidiaries (at cost)———4,1004,1004,1004,1004,100
Fixed assets, other assets and non-banking assets (ex subsidiaries)———3,5834,2865,3005,5655,843
Total assets136,756143,868142,877142,825172,925176,570188,797203,573
Liabilities and equity
Deposits (term + security/other deposits)———87,669111,051117,714127,131138,573
Borrowings (BB refinance, bank loans, bonds)———27,91431,98426,54627,34328,163
Other liabilities (incl. provisions, interest suspense, tax)———11,60213,16214,12615,25616,629
Shareholders' equity (solo)13,12714,15314,62315,63716,72818,18419,06820,209
Total liabilities and equity———142,822172,924176,570188,797203,573
Check: assets - (liabilities + equity)———20000
Lending equity (solo equity - investment in subsidiaries)9,02710,05310,52311,53712,62814,08414,96816,109
Asset quality and capital
Classified loans (SS + DF + BL)———5,0235,4065,5406,1186,575
Loan-loss provisions held (specific + general)———3,8723,9304,3995,0805,808
Interest suspense on loans———7959409691,0711,151
Net classified loans (classified - provisions - suspense)———356536172-33-383
Risk-weighted assets————99,464101,528108,559117,055
Tier-2 capital————9991,0301,0501,080
Cash dividend declared for the year———624655781616650

Cash flow

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Net profit after tax (solo)—————2,1111,6651,757
Increase in deposits—————6,6639,41711,442
Increase in other liabilities (incl. provisions, suspense)—————9641,1301,373
Increase in loans—————1,555-7,034-9,514
Increase in fixed and other assets—————-1,014-265-278
Operating cash flow (balance-sheet basis)—————10,2784,9134,779
Increase in government securities—————-5,751-4,175-4,068
Increase in other investments—————32700
Investing cash flow—————-5,423-4,175-4,068
Increase in borrowings—————-5,437796820
Cash dividend paid—————-655-781-616
Financing cash flow—————-6,09215204
Net change in cash and placements—————-1,237753915
Check: net change - change in cash on balance sheet—————000
Memo: reported cash-flow statement (solo)
Interest received in cash———14,18016,169———
Interest received / interest income———97.8%99.1%———

Subsidiaries

BDT mnFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
IDLC Securities (broker)
IDLC Securities (broker): net profit———301351———
IDLC Securities (broker): equity———4,6344,985———
IDLC Investments (merchant bank)
IDLC Investments (merchant bank): net profit———208282———
IDLC Investments (merchant bank): equity———3,5233,806———
IDLC Asset Management
IDLC Asset Management: net profit———1630———
IDLC Asset Management: equity———351372———
Combined
Subsidiaries' net profit———524664964789851
Subsidiaries' equity———8,5089,16310,12610,91611,766
Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity)————7.5%10.0%7.5%7.5%
Dividends paid up to the parent—————000

Quarterly

BDT mn1Q25A2Q25A3Q25A4Q25A1Q26A2Q26A3Q26A4Q26F1Q27F2Q27F3Q27F4Q27F1Q28F2Q28F3Q28F4Q28F
Total operating income1,562.01,647.01,794.01,802.01,938.31,830.61,704.71,821.51,702.11,794.71,954.91,963.61,807.51,905.82,075.92,085.2
Operating expenses686.0675.0794.0745.0740.0743.9807.6763.9775.6763.1897.7842.3827.2813.9957.4898.4
Provisions233.066.0227.0190.0304.7152.0134.8240.9342.897.1334.0279.6365.7103.6356.3298.2
Net profit after tax (solo)368.0526.0471.0413.0424.9530.4464.0691.3344.6492.6441.0386.7363.6519.8465.4408.1
Solo EPS (BDT, current shares)0.801.151.030.900.931.161.011.510.751.070.960.840.791.131.020.89
Check: four quarters - FY net profit———0.6———0.0———0.0———0.0

Ratios

RatioFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
Loan growth (segment total)———-0.4%8.1%-1.3%5.8%7.5%
Deposit growth————26.7%6.0%8.0%9.0%
Yield on average loans————13.0%13.0%12.4%12.0%
Cost of deposits————11.3%10.4%9.4%8.9%
Cost of borrowings————5.1%5.1%5.0%4.8%
Cost of funds (deposits + borrowings)————9.9%9.3%8.6%8.2%
Spread (loan yield - cost of funds)————3.1%3.6%3.8%3.8%
NII / avg loans————3.0%2.6%2.7%2.7%
Investment income / total operating income———19.4%38.5%49.0%46.9%46.7%
Cost-to-income37.8%43.9%47.4%41.7%42.6%41.9%44.2%44.4%
Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans)1.0%1.0%0.9%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.9%0.9%
Classified loan ratio3.0%3.8%4.5%4.5%4.4%4.6%4.8%4.8%
Coverage ((provisions + suspense) / classified)———92.9%90.1%96.9%100.5%105.8%
Capital adequacy ratio (solo)————17.8%18.9%18.5%18.2%
Leverage (avg assets / avg equity)—10.310.09.49.810.09.810.0
ROA (NPAT / avg assets)—1.2%0.8%1.2%1.1%1.2%0.9%0.9%
ROE solo (NPAT / avg equity)—11.9%7.6%11.1%11.0%12.1%8.9%8.9%
ROE of the lending business (solo NPAT / avg lending equity)————14.7%15.8%11.5%11.3%
Lending ROE history (reported solo NPAT / avg solo equity less 4,100 subsidiary cost)18.5%17.0%10.6%15.2%14.7%———
Group book (solo equity - cost + subsidiaries' equity)———20,04621,79124,21025,88327,875
ROE group (group NPAT / avg group book)————11.7%13.4%9.8%9.7%
Group book value per share (BDT, current shares)———43.7447.5552.8356.4860.82
P/B (group) at 41.4————0.9x0.8x0.7x0.7x
P/E (group) at 41.4————7.86.27.77.3
Cash dividend yield at 41.4————3.5%4.1%3.2%3.4%

Valuation

BDT mn unless statedValue / FY2026FFY2027FFY2028F
A. Lending business (solo, ex subsidiaries)
Lending equity 31-Dec-2025 (solo 16,728 - subsidiaries at cost 4,100)12,628——
Less: h x net classified loans (if positive) 31-Dec-2025268——
Adjusted lending book (ABV) 31-Dec-202512,360——
Solo net profit2,1111,6651,757
Opening lending equity12,62814,08414,968
Equity charge (Ke x opening lending equity)2,4372,7182,889
Residual income-327-1,053-1,132
Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025)0.840.700.59
PV of residual income-274-740-667
Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F-1,681——
Normalised credit cost: average FY2021-250.8%——
Normalised tax rate: average FY2021-2546.5%——
Normalised FY2028F profit: (PPOP - normalised credit cost x avg loans) x (1 - normalised tax)1,757——
Normalised lending ROE (normalised profit / avg lending equity FY2027-28F)11.3%——
Memo: base-case normalised lending ROE (model)11.3%——
Lending ROE history FY2021-25: median15.2%——
Lending ROE history FY2021-25: low10.6%——
Lending ROE history FY2021-25: high18.5%——
Sustainable lending ROE: history median + scenario shift (model), bounded by the FY21-25 range15.2%——
Terminal payout consistent with g: 1 - g / ROE_s60.4%——
Memo: no-growth alternative ROE_s / Ke (full payout, g = 0)0.8x——
Justified P/ABV: (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g)0.7x——
Lending equity 31-Dec-202816,109——
PV of terminal excess return ((P/ABV - 1) x book FY28 x DF)-2,948——
Lending residual-income value 31-Dec-20257,731——
Lending ABV 31-Dec-2026F (lending book - h x net classified if positive)13,998——
Lending value, P/ABV method: justified P/ABV x ABV FY26F, discounted 62 days9,363——
Lending value, RI method: rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid8,297——
B. Subsidiaries (each on its own audited book; capital-market businesses)
Subsidiaries' total ROE FY2028F (+ shift)7.5%——
Bonds held by the subsidiaries (surplus capital), 31-Dec-20255,987——
After-tax yield on those bonds, FY2028F6.0%——
Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2026F10,126——
Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2028F11,766——
Operating ROE ex bonds: (total ROE x book FY28 - bonds x after-tax yield) / (book FY28 - bonds)9.1%——
Subsidiaries' historical payout to the parent (average FY2024-25)10.5%——
Subsidiaries' growth g = MIN(operating ROE x (1 - payout), long-run g)6.0%——
Operating businesses' justified P/B: (ROE - g) / (Ke - g)0.2x——
Trapped-capital haircut on the subsidiaries' bonds25.0%——
Operating businesses' value (P/B x (book FY26F - bonds), discounted 62 days)922——
Subsidiaries' value: bonds at book less haircut + operating businesses5,412——
C. Per share
Sum of the parts on the P/ABV method (BDT/share)32.24——
Sum of the parts on the RI method (BDT/share)29.91——
Of which subsidiaries (BDT/share)11.81——
Weight: justified P/ABV70.0%——
Weight: residual income30.0%——
Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT)31.54——
Terminal share of lending residual-income value-38.1%——
Group book 31-Dec-2026F24,210——
Implied P/B on group book FY26F0.6x——
Implied P/E FY2026F (group)4.7——
Implied P/E FY2027F (group)5.9——
Implied cash dividend yield FY2027F4.3%——
Price / group book FY26F0.8x——
Lending value implied by the price (market cap - subsidiaries' value)13,561——
Price-implied P/ABV of the lending business1.0x——
Reverse check: lending ROE the price needs at our Ke (g + P/ABV x (Ke - g))19.3%——
Reverse check: Ke the price implies at our ROE_s (g + (ROE_s - g) / P/ABV)15.2%——
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values)
Bear: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend22.4520.5521.88
Base: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend32.2429.9131.54
Bull: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend43.2541.6842.78
Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25)31.94——

WACC

Cost of equity inputValue
Risk-free rate: 10-yr BD T-bond cut-off yield9.3%
Raw beta: 2-yr weekly vs DSEX (105 returns to 29-Oct-2026)1.30
Blume-adjusted beta (0.67 x raw + 0.33)1.20
Beta used1.20
Equity risk premium7.5%
NBFI premium (A-category)1.0%
Cost of equity, base (Rf + beta x ERP + premium)19.3%
Scenario adjustment (active)0.0%
Cost of equity used (active scenario)19.3%
Long-run growth g used: MIN(input, ROE_s x retention)6.0%
Memo: BB policy rate9.5%
Memo: 364-day T-bill cut-off8.8%

Sensitivity

Grid (row input x column input)Col 1Col 2Col 3 (base)Col 4Col 5
Grid A: cost of equity (rows) x sustainable lending ROE (columns); fair value per share, base boxed
Ke \ ROE_s12.2%13.7%15.2%16.7%18.2%
Ke 17.30%28.131.835.639.443.1
Ke 18.30%26.630.033.436.840.3
Ke 19.30%25.228.431.534.737.8
Ke 20.30%24.127.029.932.935.8
Ke 21.30%23.125.828.531.334.0
Grid B: deposit-cost shock FY27-28 (rows) x credit-cost shock FY27-28 and long run (columns); fair value per share
Deposit cost \ credit cost-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
Deposit cost -1.0pp39.639.439.136.031.6
Deposit cost -0.5pp39.339.136.031.627.0
Deposit cost +0.0pp39.036.031.526.922.1
Deposit cost +0.5pp36.131.526.922.121.6
Deposit cost +1.0pp31.626.922.121.621.4
Grid C: same shocks; FY2027F group EPS (BDT)
Deposit cost \ credit cost (EPS)-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%
EPS: deposit cost -1.0pp8.047.536.806.075.34
EPS: deposit cost -0.5pp7.326.816.085.354.62
EPS: deposit cost +0.0pp6.606.085.354.623.89
EPS: deposit cost +0.5pp5.875.364.633.903.17
EPS: deposit cost +1.0pp5.154.643.913.182.45

FAQ

What is IDLC Finance's fair value?
Our fair value range is BDT 22–43 a share, base 31.5; the price on 29-Oct-2026 was 41.4. It is a sum of the parts: the lending business at 0.69x adjusted book for a 15.2% sustainable ROE (the FY2021–25 median), the subsidiaries' BDT 6.0bn of bonds at 75% of book and their operating businesses at 0.23x.
What drives the gap between the base and the price?
Mainly the discount rate. Our 19.3% cost of equity uses the 9.27% ten-year bond, a Blume-adjusted beta of 1.20, a 7.5% equity premium and a 1% NBFI premium. At our ROE the price implies a cost of equity of about 15.2%.
How much does IDLC depend on treasury income?
Investment income was 38% of solo operating income in FY2025 and we forecast 49% in FY2026F. It fades from FY2027F as T-bond gains stop and the BDT 35bn government-securities book rolls into yields near 9%.
What do IDLC's subsidiaries contribute?
IDLC Securities, IDLC Investments and IDLC Asset Management earned BDT 664mn in FY2025, 27% of group profit, on BDT 9.2bn of equity (7.5% ROE). BDT 6.0bn of that equity is in bonds, which we value at 75% of book because the capital is largely retained in the subsidiaries; with the operating businesses they add BDT 11.8 a share.
Has IDLC raised capital recently?
No. In the last 24 months it paid 15% cash and 5% stock dividends for FY2024 and FY2025; there was no rights issue, placement or bond issue in the DSE news file.

Sources

  1. IDLC Finance PLC Integrated Annual Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025; audited, A. Qasem & Co.); consolidated, separate and subsidiary statements · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. IDLC Finance PLC H1 2026 condensed financial statements (unaudited, six months to 30-Jun-2026; consolidated and separate) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. IDLC Finance PLC Q3 2026 condensed financial statements (unaudited, nine months to 30-Sep-2026; consolidated and separate) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  4. IDLC Finance Annual Report 2021 (five-year solo highlights 2017-21; investment in subsidiaries) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. IDLC Finance Annual Report 2022 (quarterly performance 2022) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. IDLC Finance PLC Annual Report 2023 (quarterly performance 2023; investment in subsidiaries) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. IDLC Finance PLC Annual Report 2024 (segment portfolio and five-year loan series) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. Dhaka Stock Exchange company news for IDLC, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, results, credit rating, Q3 2026 headline) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  9. AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (IDLC, DSEX) via chart_bars, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  10. Bangladesh Bank: treasury auction and call money pages (29-Oct-2026); Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026, Table-102 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  11. The Daily Star, 'IDLC Finance's profit rises 17% to Tk 200 crore in nine months', Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  12. Bangladesh Bank DFIM Circular No. 04 (26-Jul-2021), loan and lease classification and provisioning for financial institutions · accessed 2026-10-31
  13. BSEC Order of 15-Feb-2024 on interim dividends (excludes banks, insurers and NBFIs) · accessed 2026-10-31
  14. The Business Standard, Bangladesh Bank approves winding up nine NBFIs (Nov 2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  15. AnalystBro model (workbook on this page) · accessed 2026-10-31

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