IDLC Finance valuation report: fair value BDT 21.9–42.8 (Oct 2026)
IDLC Finance: fair value range BDT 22–43 on a 15% median lending ROE against a 19% cost of equity
Fair value range BDT 22–43 (base 31.5); price 41.4. Cheaper deposits widen the spread as treasury income fades; one point more on deposit costs takes FY2027F EPS from 5.35 to 3.91.
For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: Medium
Sum of the parts: lending business at (ROE_s - g)/(Ke - g) = 0.69x adjusted book (ROE_s 15.2% FY2021-25 median, Ke 19.3%, g 6%) 70% / residual income 30%; subsidiaries: bonds at book less 25%, operating businesses at 0.23x
- Lending business (blend of P/ABV and RI)৳20
- IDLC Securities, IDLC Investments, IDLC Asset Management৳12
- Deposit cost falls from 11.3% in FY2025 to 9.4% in FY2027F, widening the spread from 3.1% to 3.8% →
- FY2026F group profit of BDT 3.07bn is the filed nine months plus a historically sized Q4; FY2027F dips to BDT 2.45bn as treasury yields reset →
- Classified loans 4.43% with 90% cover; a 90-day rule for NBFIs is the main asset-quality risk →
- Lending ROE on the lending basis had a 15.2% median in FY2021–25; at a 19.3% cost of equity and 6% growth it supports 0.69x book →
- Fair value range BDT 22–43; subsidiaries add BDT 11.8 a share, mostly bonds at 75% of book →
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income (solo) | 4,389 | 3,581 | 3,154 | 3,318 | 3,540 |
| Investment income (solo) | 1,208 | 2,618 | 3,572 | 3,478 | 3,674 |
| Total operating income (solo) | 6,225 | 6,805 | 7,295 | 7,415 | 7,874 |
| Profit before provisions (solo) | 3,630 | 3,905 | 4,240 | 4,137 | 4,377 |
| Net profit, solo | 1,673 | 1,777 | 2,111 | 1,665 | 1,757 |
| Net profit, subsidiaries | 524 | 664 | 964 | 789 | 851 |
| Net profit, group (solo + subsidiaries) | 2,198 | 2,441 | 3,074 | 2,454 | 2,607 |
| Group EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares) | 4.79 | 5.33 | 6.71 | 5.35 | 5.69 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares) | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.70 | 1.34 | 1.42 |
| Group book value per share (BDT) | 43.74 | 47.55 | 52.83 | 56.48 | 60.82 |
| ROE, group | — | 11.7% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Classified loan ratio (solo) | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Capital adequacy ratio (solo) | — | 17.8% | 18.9% | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| P/E at 41.4 | — | 7.8 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| P/B at 41.4 | — | 0.9x | 0.8x | 0.7x | 0.7x |
A 15.2% lending ROE, at the FY2021–25 median, supports 0.69x book; with the subsidiaries the base is 0.60x group book
Our fair value range for IDLC Finance is BDT 22–43 a share, with a base of 31.5 and a probability-weighted value of 31.9; the price on 29-Oct-2026 was 41.4. IDLC is Bangladesh's largest healthy non-bank financial institution (NBFI): solo loans of BDT 122.0bn, deposits of BDT 111.1bn, classified loans of 4.43% and capital adequacy of 17.82% at December 2025 [s1 p.162, p.170, p.324]. It also owns a stockbroker, a merchant bank and an asset manager. Group profit rose 17.3% to BDT 2.07bn in the nine months to September 2026 [3 p.6].
Two numbers drive our view. First, the lending business, measured on solo equity less the BDT 4.1bn cost of the subsidiaries, earned 18.5%, 17.0%, 10.6%, 15.2% and 14.7% in FY2021–25 [s1 p.162; s4 p.115]. We use the median, 15.2%, as the sustainable return. At a 19.3% cost of equity and 6% long-run growth that supports 0.69x adjusted book. Our own FY2027–28F forecast earns less (11.3% normalised) because treasury yields reset to about 9%; we treat that as the cycle low, not the norm. Second, the subsidiaries hold BDT 6.0bn of bonds, which we value at book less a 25% trapped-capital haircut, and run brokerage, merchant-banking and fund businesses that earn about 9.1% on the rest of their equity. Together they add BDT 11.8 a share.
Why the market may pay more than our base. IDLC holds an AAA rating [8]. It won deposits from weaker NBFIs during the sector crisis: +26.7% in FY2025 [1 p.354]. It has paid a cash dividend every year from FY2021 to FY2025 [1 p.162]. At our 15.2% lending ROE the price implies a cost of equity of about 15.2%, against our 19.3%; most of the gap between our base and the price is the discount rate.
Data
| FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (loan yield - cost of funds) | 3.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 | 3.81 |
| Credit cost | 0.61 | 0.69 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| Lending ROE | 14.71 | 15.80 | 11.46 | 11.31 |
Bulls say
- Deposits keep coming: +26.7% in FY2025 and +5.3% in nine months of 2026 to BDT 116.9bn, while borrowings fell from BDT 32.0bn to 26.6bn [s1 p.354; s3 p.9].
- Nine-month 2026 group profit rose 17.3% to BDT 2.07bn [3 p.6].
- Bull case: loan growth 5pp faster, deposit and credit costs 0.5pp and 0.3pp lower, subsidiaries' ROE 1.5pp higher and Ke 1pp lower give BDT 43.
Bears say
- Loans shrank 1.3% in nine months of 2026 to BDT 120.5bn [3 p.9]; profit leans on BDT 34.3bn of government securities whose yields are falling [10].
- Solo net interest income fell 18% in FY2025 and another 10% in nine months of 2026 [s1 p.326; s3 p.11].
- Bear case: the same drivers moved the other way give BDT 22; a 90-day classification rule for NBFIs alone gives 27.1.
Data
| Low | High |
|---|
Data
| Oct-24 | Nov-24 | Dec-24 | Jan-25 | Mar-25 | Apr-25 | May-25 | Jun-25 | Jul-25 | Aug-25 | Sep-25 | Nov-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDLC | 100.00 | 100.30 | 97.90 | 92.30 | 92.60 | 90.20 | 84.20 | 93.20 | 123.90 | 134.50 | 120.80 | 114.60 | 110.90 | 121.10 | 123.60 | 125.20 | 119.00 | 134.10 | 153.00 | 143.80 | 139.60 | 135.00 |
| DSEX | 100.00 | 98.90 | 98.60 | 97.20 | 99.00 | 96.90 | 90.30 | 93.10 | 102.90 | 105.10 | 97.40 | 92.60 | 92.90 | 98.00 | 99.70 | 100.00 | 99.80 | 107.70 | 110.40 | 107.60 | 105.20 | 103.00 |
SME loans are 39% of a BDT 122bn book; three subsidiaries add 27% of group profit
IDLC lends to small businesses, companies and households and funds itself with term deposits and cheap refinance. It is licensed by Bangladesh Bank under the Finance Company Act 2023 [1 p.318] and, like every NBFI, cannot take current or savings deposits. At December 2025 the BDT 122.0bn solo loan book was 39% SME (BDT 46.9bn), 34% corporate (BDT 41.6bn) and 27% consumer (BDT 33.5bn) [1 p.285]. By product, long-term finance was BDT 74.9bn, real-estate (mostly home) loans BDT 29.2bn, leases BDT 4.7bn, Islamic financing BDT 4.4bn, factoring BDT 3.2bn and car loans BDT 2.3bn [1 p.345].
Data
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SME | 45.50 | 43.50 | 46.90 | 46.50 | 49.70 | 53.70 |
| Corporate | 32.40 | 34.20 | 41.60 | 41.10 | 43.60 | 47.10 |
| Consumer | 35.50 | 35.20 | 33.50 | 32.80 | 34.10 | 36.20 |
Yields differ by product. In FY2025 term finance earned BDT 9.33bn of interest, real-estate finance 4.21bn, leases 0.84bn, short-term finance 0.38bn and car loans 0.37bn [1 p.361]. On average balances that is about 13.1% on term loans, 14.0% on home loans and 15% on car loans. SME and consumer loans carry the higher rates, and corporate loans funded by Bangladesh Bank refinance the lowest. Mix therefore moves the blended yield: FY2025's corporate growth and consumer shrinkage held the loan yield at 13.0% even as market rates rose.
| Product | FY2024 (BDT mn) | FY2025 (BDT mn) | Balance Dec-25 (BDT mn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Term finance | 8,056.0 | 9,334.6 | 74,926.5 |
| Real-estate (home) finance | 3,984.2 | 4,213.2 | 29,166.1 |
| Lease finance | 398.3 | 844.3 | 4,737.1 |
| Short-term finance (factoring) | 388.6 | 375.1 | 3,218.0 |
| Car loans | 326.6 | 365.5 | 2,329.0 |
| Loan against deposits | 102.1 | 108.9 | 674.7 |
| Interest on loans and leases | 13,263.1 | 15,250.9 | — |
| Interest on bank placements | 1,229.2 | 1,067.3 | — |
The subsidiaries are significant and are valued on their own statements. IDLC Securities is a stockbroker (2.97% of DSE turnover, BDT 4.99bn equity, BDT 351mn profit in FY2025); IDLC Investments is a merchant bank and portfolio manager (BDT 3.81bn equity, BDT 282mn profit); IDLC Asset Management runs four mutual funds and a venture fund (BDT 3.14bn under management, BDT 372mn equity, BDT 30mn profit) [s1 p.195, p.197, p.401-402, p.435-436, p.464-465]. Together they earned BDT 664mn, 27% of group profit, on 42% of group equity. Most of that profit is bond income, not fees: IDLC Securities holds BDT 3.91bn of T-bonds, about 80% of its equity, and its brokerage commission fell to BDT 240mn [s1 p.195, p.401-402]. We value each on its own book and ROE in the valuation section, which is why a sum of the parts applies here.
| BDT mn | Equity Dec-24 | Equity Dec-25 | Profit FY2024 | Profit FY2025 | ROE FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDLC Securities (broker) | 4,634 | 4,985 | 301 | 351 | 7.3% |
| IDLC Investments (merchant bank) | 3,523 | 3,806 | 208 | 282 | 7.7% |
| IDLC Asset Management | 351 | 372 | 16 | 30 | 8.4% |
| Total | 8,508 | 9,163 | 524 | 664 | 7.5% |
Owners. The City Bank group holds 23.2% (City Bank 9.0%, City Bank Capital Resources 9.9%, City Brokerage 4.3%); Eskayef Bangladesh 8.0%, Sadharan Bima Corporation 7.6%, Reliance Insurance 7.0% and Mercantile Bank 5.5% with its securities arm [1 p.261]. The sponsor/director category fell from 56.66% to 35.12% of shares in 2025 while institutions rose from 28.12% to 50.14% [1 p.261]; the report does not explain the reclassification. Loans to companies in which directors have an interest were nil [1 p.349].
Nine NBFIs are being wound up; IDLC took deposits from the weak tier and grew them 26.7% in FY2025
Bangladesh's finance-company sector is split in two. A good tier (IDLC, IPDC, DBH, United, LankaBangla) reports single-digit classified loans and capital above the minimum; the tail has negative equity. As reported by The Business Standard, in November 2025 Bangladesh Bank's board approved winding up nine NBFIs: FAS Finance, BIFC, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing and International Leasing. They held about half of the sector's defaulted loans [14]. Individual depositors of those companies are being repaid principal from a government-backed facility; institutional depositors depend on asset recoveries.
For IDLC the crisis was a funding gain. Deposits rose 26.7% to BDT 111.1bn in FY2025; deposits from institutions other than banks rose 30.2% to BDT 48.7bn and from individuals 22.1% to BDT 58.4bn [1 p.354]. The money went largely into government securities, which rose from BDT 9.1bn to 29.5bn on the solo balance sheet [1 p.324], because loan demand was weak. We assume the flight to quality slows: deposit growth of 5% in FY2026F (H1 was +3.1%) and 8–9% a year after.
Direct exposure to the failing names is not disclosed. IDLC reports BDT 2.76bn 'due from banks and financial institutions' at December 2025 [1 p.349] but not the counterparties; we could not check for placements with the nine wind-up NBFIs (a labelled gap). Contagion would come through funding: institutions supply 44% of IDLC's deposits [1 p.354], and institutional money moves fastest if trust in the whole sector breaks.
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Individuals | 47,848 | 58,429 | 0 |
| Other institutions | 37,363 | 48,650 | 0 |
| Banks | 2,459 | 3,972 | 1 |
| Total deposits (solo) | 87,669 | 111,051 | 0 |
Loans shrank 1.3% in nine months of 2026; we forecast -1.3% for FY2026F and 5.8% in FY2027F
Loan growth is set by private credit demand, not by IDLC's funding. The company disbursed BDT 56.2bn of lease and term loans in FY2025, but repayments were almost as large, so the book grew 8.1% [s1 p.162, p.345]. In the nine months to September 2026 it shrank 1.3% to BDT 120.5bn [3 p.9] while private-sector credit demand stayed weak. IDLC's own 2025 report says it chose portfolio quality over expansion [1 p.285].
We forecast each segment from its own driver. SME loans fall 1% in FY2026F, then grow 7% and 8% as rates fall and working-capital demand returns. Corporate loans fall 1% in FY2026F after FY2025's refinance-led 21% jump, then grow 6–8%. Consumer loans, mostly home loans, fall 2% in FY2026F (they fell 5% in FY2025), then grow 4% and 6%; home-loan demand follows mortgage rates with a lag, and real-estate disbursements fell from BDT 9.6bn in FY2022 to 5.5bn in FY2025 [1 p.162]. Total loans reach BDT 137.0bn by FY2028F.
| Growth | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SME | -4.5% | 8.0% | -1.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
| Corporate | 5.6% | 21.4% | -1.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| Consumer | -0.8% | -4.8% | -2.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Total loans | -0.4% | 8.1% | -1.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% |
Deposits are 78% of funding; their cost falls from 11.3% in FY2025 to 9.4% in FY2027F
Funding is the structural weakness of an NBFI, and IDLC offsets part of it with refinance. At December 2025 deposits were BDT 111.1bn and borrowings BDT 32.0bn, so deposits were 78% of interest-bearing funding [1 p.324]. Half of the borrowings, BDT 16.2bn, is Bangladesh Bank refinance and pre-finance for SME and green lending, plus BDT 2.1bn of the government-backed IPFF line; the rest is short-term bank loans of BDT 10.2bn and term loans [s1 p.352-353]. That refinance is why borrowings cost only about 5.1% in FY2025 against 11.3% for deposits (model, [15]).
Term deposit rates ranged from 9.00% to 12.35% in FY2025 [1 p.354]. Banks paid a weighted average of 6.21% on all deposits in FY2025-26 and lent at 12.13% [10]. The bank average includes cheap current and savings accounts that NBFIs may not offer, so it is not a like-for-like term rate. The policy rate was cut to 9.50% in August 2026 and the 364-day Treasury bill cleared at 8.79% on 26-Oct-2026 [10]. IDLC has to pay at or above the bill rate to keep institutional money, so the bill rate is the floor for its deposit cost.
| Rate | FY2025 | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| IDLC cost of deposits | 11.3% | 10.4% (FY2026F, model) |
| IDLC cost of borrowings | 5.1% | BB refinance is half the book |
| Bank-system average, all deposits incl. current and savings | 6.3% | 6.21% (FY2025-26) |
| 364-day Treasury bill cut-off | — | 8.79% (26-Oct-2026) |
| Policy rate | 10.0% | 9.50% (since 2-Aug-2026) |
| IDLC yield on loans | 13.0% | 13.0% (FY2026F, model) |
| Bank-system average lending rate | 12.3% | 12.13% (FY2025-26) |
| IDLC spread (loan yield - cost of funds) | 3.1% | 3.6% (FY2026F) |
Deposit costs are now falling, slowly. In the nine months to September 2026 total interest expense was BDT 10.09bn, against BDT 9.40bn a year earlier, while deposits grew 5.3% [s3 p.9, p.11]; the implied deposit cost is about 10.5% for FY2026F, down from 11.3% in FY2025 (model). 34% of term deposits mature within a year and 60% in one to five years [1 p.354], so repricing takes several quarters. We model the deposit cost at 10.2% for Q4 2026, 9.4% in FY2027F and 8.9% in FY2028F, and loan yields at 13.0%, 12.4% and 12.0%. The cost of funds falls from 9.9% to 8.2%; the spread widens from 3.1% to 3.8%.
| BDT mn, Dec-2025 | Term deposits | Borrowings |
|---|---|---|
| Up to 1 month | 4,942 | 4,667 |
| 1–6 months (deposits) / 1–3 months (borrowings) | 22,146 | 2,677 |
| 6–12 months (deposits) / 3–12 months (borrowings) | 9,688 | 11,115 |
| 1–5 years | 63,788 | 12,211 |
| Over 5 years | 6,447 | 1,313 |
| Total | 107,011 | 31,984 |
Treasury income was 38% of FY2025 solo operating income and rises to 49% in FY2026F
FY2025 profit grew on treasury income, not lending. Solo net interest income fell 18% to BDT 3.58bn as deposit costs rose faster than loan yields. Investment income more than doubled to BDT 2.62bn: BDT 1.82bn of bond interest, BDT 350mn of gains on T-bond sales and BDT 396mn of gains on shares [s1 p.326, p.361]. Operating expenses rose 11.8% to BDT 2.90bn, a 42.6% cost-to-income ratio [1 p.326]. The nine months to September 2026 continued the pattern: solo net interest income fell 10.3% to BDT 2.37bn and investment income rose 40.0% to BDT 2.67bn [3 p.11].
Treasury income fades from FY2027F. IDLC held BDT 34.3bn of government securities in September 2026 [3 p.9]. We earn 10.0% on that book in Q4 2026, falling to 9.2% in FY2027F and 8.8% in FY2028F as it rolls into today's yields: 8.79% on the one-year bill and 9.27% on the ten-year bond [10]. Any T-bond gains in 2026 are inside the filed nine-month investment income; we model none after September, because gains are not recurring. Investment income stays near BDT 3.5bn because the book keeps growing with deposits, but it no longer grows faster than lending income.
Data
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 4.39 | 3.58 | 3.15 | 3.32 | 3.54 |
| Investment income | 1.21 | 2.62 | 3.57 | 3.48 | 3.67 |
| Fees and other | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
Fees and other income are mostly loan processing fees (BDT 379mn in FY2025) and recoveries of written-off loans (BDT 105mn) [1 p.362]; we keep them at 0.50% of loans. Staff costs run at the nine-month rate in Q4 2026 (9M +11.1%) and grow 7–8% after; other costs 6% a year. Cost-to-income rises from 41.9% in FY2026F to 44.4% in FY2028F because treasury income stops growing.
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | — | — | — | 14,492 | 16,321 | 16,577 | 16,173 | 16,696 |
| Interest on loans and leases (incl. loan against deposit) | — | — | — | 13,263 | 15,251 | 15,712 | 15,370 | 15,867 |
| Interest on bank placements and other | — | — | — | 1,229 | 1,070 | 864 | 803 | 829 |
| Interest paid on deposits and borrowings | — | — | — | 10,103 | 12,740 | 13,423 | 12,855 | 13,156 |
| Interest on term and security deposits | — | — | — | 8,595 | 11,201 | 11,936 | 11,508 | 11,824 |
| Interest on borrowings, bonds, call loans and leases | — | — | — | 1,508 | 1,539 | 1,487 | 1,347 | 1,332 |
| Net interest income | — | — | — | 4,389 | 3,581 | 3,154 | 3,318 | 3,540 |
| Investment income | — | — | — | 1,208 | 2,618 | 3,572 | 3,478 | 3,674 |
| Government securities and bonds (coupon) | — | — | — | 730 | 1,819 | 3,391 | 3,352 | 3,548 |
| Gains on T-bond sales | — | — | — | 206 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends and gains on shares | — | — | — | 273 | 449 | 181 | 126 | 126 |
| Fees, commission and other operating income | — | — | — | 627 | 606 | 570 | 620 | 661 |
| Total operating income | 5,870 | 5,500 | 5,338 | 6,225 | 6,805 | 7,295 | 7,415 | 7,874 |
| Staff cost (salaries + MD) | — | — | — | 1,650 | 1,828 | 1,997 | 2,156 | 2,307 |
| Other operating expenses | — | — | — | 945 | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,122 | 1,190 |
| Total operating expenses | 2,218 | 2,415 | 2,530 | 2,595 | 2,901 | 3,055 | 3,279 | 3,497 |
| Profit before provisions | 3,652 | 3,085 | 2,808 | 3,630 | 3,905 | 4,240 | 4,137 | 4,377 |
| Total provisions | 909 | 1,006 | 1,006 | 688 | 716 | 832 | 1,054 | 1,124 |
| Profit before tax | 2,743 | 2,079 | 1,802 | 2,942 | 3,188 | 3,407 | 3,083 | 3,254 |
| Tax | 1,167 | 459 | 708 | 1,269 | 1,411 | 1,555 | 1,418 | 1,497 |
| Q4 true-up to the 9M run-rate (FY2026F only; F03 Q4 rule) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 0 | 0 |
| Net profit after tax (solo) | 1,576 | 1,620 | 1,094 | 1,673 | 1,777 | 2,111 | 1,665 | 1,757 |
| Subsidiaries' net profit | — | — | — | 524 | 664 | 964 | 789 | 851 |
| Group net profit (solo + subsidiaries) | 2,116 | 1,915 | 1,514 | 2,198 | 2,441 | 3,074 | 2,454 | 2,607 |
| Solo EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares) | 3.44 | 3.53 | 2.39 | 3.65 | 3.88 | 4.61 | 3.63 | 3.83 |
| Group EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares) | 4.62 | 4.18 | 3.30 | 4.79 | 5.33 | 6.71 | 5.35 | 5.69 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares) | — | — | — | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.70 | 1.34 | 1.42 |
From the Income statement tab of the model.
Classified loans 4.43% with 90% cover; we assume credit cost of 0.85%
IDLC's asset quality is among the best in the sector and stable. Classified loans were BDT 5.41bn, 4.43% of the solo book, at December 2025: BDT 0.88bn sub-standard, 0.69bn doubtful and 3.83bn bad/loss [1 p.349]. The ratio has held at 4.4–4.5% for three years (3.05% in FY2021) [1 p.162]. Special-mention loans, the early-warning bucket, were BDT 1.83bn, 1.5% of loans [1 p.349]. The condensed interims we read do not give the ratio.
Loan provisions held were BDT 3.93bn and interest suspense BDT 0.94bn, 90% of classified loans [s1 p.316, p.355]. That leaves BDT 536mn of classified loans uncovered; our adjusted book deducts half of it in the base case. In FY2025 BDT 309mn was written off and BDT 105mn recovered from earlier write-offs [1 p.349]. Interest received in cash was 99.1% of interest income [1 p.327], so the F03 income-quality flag is not tripped.
| BDT mn | Dec-2024 | Dec-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (incl. staff loans) | 106,102 | 114,752 |
| Special mention (SMA) | 1,723 | 1,828 |
| Sub-standard | 657 | 882 |
| Doubtful | 708 | 688 |
| Bad/loss | 3,659 | 3,835 |
| Classified loans | 5,023 | 5,406 |
| Classified ratio | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Loan provisions held | 3,872 | 3,930 |
| Interest suspense | 795 | 940 |
| (Provisions + suspense) / classified | 92.9% | 90.1% |
Regulation is the swing factor. IDLC classifies under DFIM Circular 04 of July 2021 [12]: a term loan becomes sub-standard at three months overdue, doubtful at nine and bad/loss at twelve, with provisions of 20%, 50% and 100%. Banks moved to a uniform 90-day rule in 2025; whether Bangladesh Bank will extend it to NBFIs is not confirmed, and we found no such DFIM circular in our sources. Our stress row assumes it does: classified loans rise to 6.5% / 8.5% / 9.5% and credit cost rises 0.6pp (a risk row, outside the symmetric scenarios). In the base case credit cost is 0.80% for Q4 2026, 0.85% in FY2027F and 0.85% in FY2028F, against 0.61% in FY2024–25 and a FY2021–25 average of 0.82%; the nine months to September ran at 0.65% annualised (BDT 592mn) [3 p.11].
| Credit cost (provisions / avg loans) | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | — | — | — | — | — | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Base | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Capital adequacy of 17.8% funds a 37% cash payout plus 5% stock dividends; no rights issue in 24 months
Capital is not the constraint. Solo capital adequacy was 17.82% at December 2025 (Tier-1 BDT 16.73bn, Tier-2 BDT 1.00bn of general provision, on BDT 99.5bn of risk-weighted assets), and 22.30% for the group, against a 10% minimum [1 p.170]. On our path the solo ratio is 18.9% in FY2026F and 18.2% in FY2028F. Leverage is about 9.8x average assets to equity, high for an ROE near 11%.
Capital actions in the last 24 months were dividends only. The DSE news file from November 2024 to October 2026 shows 15% cash and 5% stock dividends for FY2024 (declared April 2025) and the same for FY2025 (declared March 2026, AGM 14-May-2026, cash paid June 2026), an ECRL AAA rating affirmed twice, and quarterly results; no rights issue, placement, bond issue or change in authorised capital [8]. The stock dividends raised paid-up capital from BDT 4.16bn to 4.58bn [s1 p.324; s3 p.9]; the board said they support portfolio growth [8]. IDLC also moved BDT 500mn into a dividend-equalisation reserve in 2025 [1 p.362].
Rules that bind dividends. Under the Finance Company Act, 20% of profit goes to a statutory reserve until it equals paid-up capital: BDT 355mn in FY2025 [1 p.326]. The 10% capital minimum applies [1 p.170]. A BSEC order of February 2024 lets listed companies pay interim cash dividends but excludes banks, insurers and NBFIs [13 p.2]. We searched the Bangladesh Bank circular collection for a DFIM rule on NBFI cash dividends, like the banks' payout caps, and found none; this is a labelled gap. IDLC's capital ratio leaves room either way. We model a 37% cash payout of solo profit (FY2025: 36.8%), DPS of BDT 1.70 for FY2026F and 1.34 for FY2027F, and do not model further stock dividends; a 5% stock dividend each year would cut per-share values by about 5% a year without changing value.
| FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE, group (company figure for history) | 13.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| ROE, solo | 12.5% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| ROE, lending business (ex subsidiaries) | — | — | — | — | 14.7% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% |
| ROA, solo | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Capital adequacy, solo | — | — | — | — | 17.8% | 18.9% | 18.5% | 18.2% |
We forecast group profit of BDT 3.07bn in FY2026F, 2.45bn in FY2027F and 2.61bn in FY2028F
FY2026F starts from the filed nine months. Group profit was BDT 2,067mn in January–September 2026 and BDT 697mn in the third quarter alone [3 p.6]; solo profit was BDT 1,419mn [3 p.11], so the subsidiaries earned BDT 648mn. Following the F03 method, the fourth quarter is the nine-month run-rate (BDT 689mn a quarter) times IDLC's historical fourth-quarter true-up: Q4 profit was 1.38x, 1.54x, 1.79x and 1.14x the Q1–Q3 average in FY2022–25 [s5 p.235; s6 p.243; s7 p.264; s8], a median of 1.46x across those four years (FY2021 quarters were not read). That gives a Q4 of about BDT 1,007mn and FY2026F group profit of BDT 3,074mn (EPS 6.71). The Q4 lift has come from year-end tax and provision true-ups (in FY2022 the fourth-quarter tax line was a credit) [5 p.235]; it is a pattern, not a guarantee. If Q4 repeats FY2025's lower 1.14x, FY2026F group profit is about BDT 2,853mn (EPS 6.23) and the base value BDT 31.4.
Group EPS is 5.35 in FY2027F and 5.69 in FY2028F on 458.3mn shares. FY2027F falls because T-bond gains stop, treasury yields reset lower and there is no year-end true-up in our run-rate years; the wider spread and loan growth lift FY2028F. The Daily Star reported that the third quarter repeated the pattern of lower net interest income and higher investment income [11]; the filed figures confirm it: solo NII fell 10.3% and investment income rose 40.0% in nine months [3 p.11].
| Driver | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loan growth | 8.1% | -1.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | Weak private credit; 9M -1.3% |
| Deposit growth | 26.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | Flight to quality fades |
| Yield on loans | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% | Repricing 2–4Q after the Aug-2026 cut |
| Cost of deposits | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 34% of term deposits reprice within a year |
| Yield on government securities (coupon) | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | Converges to the 9.27% ten-year bond |
| Credit cost | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | FY2021–25 average 0.82% |
| Subsidiaries' ROE | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | Bond income; brokerage volumes |
| Cash payout (solo profit) | 36.8% | 37.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% | 15% cash dividends FY24-25 |
Data
| 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 1Q28F | 2Q28F | 3Q28F | 4Q28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit after tax (solo) | 368.00 | 526.00 | 471.00 | 413.00 | 424.90 | 530.40 | 464.00 | 691.30 | 344.60 | 492.60 | 441.00 | 386.70 | 363.60 | 519.80 | 465.40 | 408.10 |
| Group net profit, BDT mn | Value |
|---|---|
| Nine months 2026 (filed) | 2,067 |
| Nine months 2025 (filed) | 1,763 |
| Q4 2025 (FY2025 2,434 less 9M 1,763) | 671 |
| Five-year average (FY2021–25, reported) | 1,996 |
| Our FY2026F | 3,074 |
| Our FY2027F | 2,454 |
| Our FY2028F | 2,607 |
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loan book by segment (solo) | ||||||||
| SME loans | — | — | 45,500 | 43,450 | 46,940 | 46,471 | 49,724 | 53,701 |
| Corporate loans | — | — | 32,390 | 34,220 | 41,552 | 41,136 | 43,605 | 47,093 |
| Consumer loans (home, car, personal) | — | — | 35,450 | 35,180 | 33,494 | 32,824 | 34,137 | 36,185 |
| Assets | ||||||||
| Cash, BB balance and placements with banks | — | — | — | 10,852 | 10,654 | 9,417 | 10,170 | 11,086 |
| Government securities (plug in forecast) | — | — | — | 9,134 | 29,471 | 35,222 | 39,397 | 43,465 |
| Other investments (shares, corporate bonds) | — | — | — | 2,306 | 2,427 | 2,100 | 2,100 | 2,100 |
| Loans, advances and leases | — | — | 113,340 | 112,850 | 121,986 | 120,431 | 127,465 | 136,980 |
| Investment in subsidiaries (at cost) | — | — | — | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,100 |
| Fixed assets, other assets and non-banking assets (ex subsidiaries) | — | — | — | 3,583 | 4,286 | 5,300 | 5,565 | 5,843 |
| Total assets | 136,756 | 143,868 | 142,877 | 142,825 | 172,925 | 176,570 | 188,797 | 203,573 |
| Liabilities and equity | ||||||||
| Deposits (term + security/other deposits) | — | — | — | 87,669 | 111,051 | 117,714 | 127,131 | 138,573 |
| Borrowings (BB refinance, bank loans, bonds) | — | — | — | 27,914 | 31,984 | 26,546 | 27,343 | 28,163 |
| Other liabilities (incl. provisions, interest suspense, tax) | — | — | — | 11,602 | 13,162 | 14,126 | 15,256 | 16,629 |
| Shareholders' equity (solo) | 13,127 | 14,153 | 14,623 | 15,637 | 16,728 | 18,184 | 19,068 | 20,209 |
| Total liabilities and equity | — | — | — | 142,822 | 172,924 | 176,570 | 188,797 | 203,573 |
| Check: assets - (liabilities + equity) | — | — | — | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lending equity (solo equity - investment in subsidiaries) | 9,027 | 10,053 | 10,523 | 11,537 | 12,628 | 14,084 | 14,968 | 16,109 |
| Asset quality and capital | ||||||||
| Classified loans (SS + DF + BL) | — | — | — | 5,023 | 5,406 | 5,540 | 6,118 | 6,575 |
| Loan-loss provisions held (specific + general) | — | — | — | 3,872 | 3,930 | 4,399 | 5,080 | 5,808 |
| Interest suspense on loans | — | — | — | 795 | 940 | 969 | 1,071 | 1,151 |
| Net classified loans (classified - provisions - suspense) | — | — | — | 356 | 536 | 172 | -33 | -383 |
| Risk-weighted assets | — | — | — | — | 99,464 | 101,528 | 108,559 | 117,055 |
| Tier-2 capital | — | — | — | — | 999 | 1,030 | 1,050 | 1,080 |
| Cash dividend declared for the year | — | — | — | 624 | 655 | 781 | 616 | 650 |
From the Balance sheet tab of the model.
Fair value range BDT 22–43: 0.69x lending book, subsidiaries' bonds at 75% of book
Sum of the parts applies because the subsidiaries are 42% of group book and 27% of profit and earn a different return. We value the lending business on its adjusted book and sustainable ROE, and the subsidiaries in two pieces: their bonds at book less a trapped-capital haircut and their operating businesses on their own return. The lending book is solo equity less the BDT 4.10bn cost of the subsidiaries (the cost has been BDT 4.10bn in every year since at least FY2020 [s4 p.284; s6 p.299; s1 p.351]), BDT 12.36bn at December 2025 after deducting half of the BDT 536mn of uncovered classified loans.
Sustainable lending ROE comes from IDLC's own history on the same basis. Solo profit over average solo equity less the subsidiary cost was 18.5%, 17.0%, 10.6%, 15.2% and 14.7% in FY2021–25, a median of 15.2% and a range of 10.6%–18.5%; FY2018–20 were higher still, 21.6–29.1%, when funding cost less [s4 p.115; s1 p.162]. We use the FY2021–25 median, 15.2%. Our explicit forecast earns less: normalised FY2028F (credit cost at the FY2021–25 average of 0.82%, tax at the 46.5% average) gives 11.3%, close to the FY2023 low. Why now differs: T-bond gains and 12%+ bill yields lifted FY2024–25, and both are gone, while deposit costs are still repricing down. We treat our forecast years as the low part of a cycle that the median spans. Scenarios shift ROE_s by the change in the model's normalised ROE, bounded by the FY2021–25 range.
One formula for growth, payout and value. P/ABV = (ROE_s − g) / (Ke − g), with g = 6% (F03 range 6–7%) and payout = 1 − g / ROE_s = 60%. That gives 0.69x. Because ROE_s is below Ke, retaining profit to grow destroys some value: with no growth and full payout the multiple would be 0.79x (BDT 3.0 a share more on the lending leg). We keep g at 6% because the loan book has to grow with nominal GDP and capital rules require retention. The residual-income terminal uses the same multiple, so the RI leg is not an independent check on the P/ABV leg; it differs only through the FY2026–28F residual income. The terminal is -38% of the lending residual-income value (negative because ROE_s < Ke).
Subsidiaries. IDLC Securities holds BDT 3.91bn of T-bonds and IDLC Investments BDT 2.08bn of bonds [s1 p.401, p.435]: BDT 5.99bn of surplus capital. It is not freely available to IDLC: the subsidiaries paid the parent only BDT 110mn in FY2024 (IDLC Investments) and nothing in FY2025 [s1 p.403, p.437, p.466], and they must hold capital under BSEC's risk-based capital rules [1 p.362]. We therefore value the bonds at book less a 25% trapped-capital haircut (our assumption): at no haircut the base would be BDT 34.8, at 50% BDT 28.3. The operating businesses (broking, merchant banking and portfolio management, fund management) earn an estimated 9.1% on the remaining equity in FY2028F (total subsidiary ROE of 7.5% less a 6% after-tax bond yield). We use the parent's formula, (ROE − g)/(Ke − g), with their actual payout: 10% on average in FY2024–25, so g = ROE x retention, capped at the parent's 6% because no business can outgrow the economy forever: 6.0%. Because ROE is below Ke, that retention leaves almost no value: 0.23x, BDT 0.92bn. Subsidiaries in total: BDT 5.41bn, or BDT 11.8 a share.
On the price-to-adjusted-book method the parts come to BDT 32.2 a share; on residual income BDT 29.9. Weighted 70 / 30, the base is BDT 31.5, 0.60x FY2026F group book and 5.9x FY2027F EPS. The own price-to-book band is dropped (its pre-2024 years include the DSE floor-price period) and there is no peer leg because we did not read peers' filings on the same basis. Reconciling P/E and dividends: at ROE_s 15.2%, payout 60% and g 6%, the justified P/E on normalised lending earnings is payout / (Ke − g) = 4.5x, the same as 0.69x book divided by 15.2%; a dividend-discount view with the same payout and g gives the same number.
| FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lending ROE (solo NPAT / avg solo equity less 4,100) | 18.5% | 17.0% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% |
| Solo ROE (company figure, equity includes subsidiaries at cost) | 12.5% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.0% | — | — | — |
| Sustainable lending ROE used (bear / base / bull) | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% / 15.2% / 18.0% | — | — |
| Input | Value | Source / reason |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free: 10-year T-bond cut-off (25-Oct-2026) | 9.3% | Bangladesh Bank |
| Raw beta, 2 years weekly vs DSEX | 1.30 | 105 weekly returns (beta.py) |
| Beta used (Blume-adjusted) | 1.20 | 0.67 x raw + 0.33 |
| Equity risk premium | 7.5% | House value, range 6-8% |
| NBFI premium (A-category) | 1.0% | F03 method |
| Cost of equity used | 19.3% | Bear +1pp, bull -1pp |
| Long-run growth g (P/ABV and RI terminal) | 6.0% | Payout 1 - g / ROE_s |
| BDT mn unless stated | Value / FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lending business (solo, ex subsidiaries) | |||
| Lending equity 31-Dec-2025 (solo 16,728 - subsidiaries at cost 4,100) | 12,628 | — | — |
| Less: h x net classified loans (if positive) 31-Dec-2025 | 268 | — | — |
| Adjusted lending book (ABV) 31-Dec-2025 | 12,360 | — | — |
| Solo net profit | 2,111 | 1,665 | 1,757 |
| Opening lending equity | 12,628 | 14,084 | 14,968 |
| Equity charge (Ke x opening lending equity) | 2,437 | 2,718 | 2,889 |
| Residual income | -327 | -1,053 | -1,132 |
| Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025) | 0.84 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| PV of residual income | -274 | -740 | -667 |
| Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F | -1,681 | — | — |
| Normalised credit cost: average FY2021-25 | 0.8% | — | — |
| Normalised tax rate: average FY2021-25 | 46.5% | — | — |
| Normalised FY2028F profit: (PPOP - normalised credit cost x avg loans) x (1 - normalised tax) | 1,757 | — | — |
| Normalised lending ROE (normalised profit / avg lending equity FY2027-28F) | 11.3% | — | — |
| Memo: base-case normalised lending ROE (model) | 11.3% | — | — |
| Lending ROE history FY2021-25: median | 15.2% | — | — |
| Lending ROE history FY2021-25: low | 10.6% | — | — |
| Lending ROE history FY2021-25: high | 18.5% | — | — |
| Sustainable lending ROE: history median + scenario shift (model), bounded by the FY21-25 range | 15.2% | — | — |
| Terminal payout consistent with g: 1 - g / ROE_s | 60.4% | — | — |
| Memo: no-growth alternative ROE_s / Ke (full payout, g = 0) | 0.8x | — | — |
| Justified P/ABV: (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g) | 0.7x | — | — |
| Lending equity 31-Dec-2028 | 16,109 | — | — |
| PV of terminal excess return ((P/ABV - 1) x book FY28 x DF) | -2,948 | — | — |
| Lending residual-income value 31-Dec-2025 | 7,731 | — | — |
| Lending ABV 31-Dec-2026F (lending book - h x net classified if positive) | 13,998 | — | — |
| Lending value, P/ABV method: justified P/ABV x ABV FY26F, discounted 62 days | 9,363 | — | — |
| Lending value, RI method: rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid | 8,297 | — | — |
| B. Subsidiaries (each on its own audited book; capital-market businesses) | |||
| Subsidiaries' total ROE FY2028F (+ shift) | 7.5% | — | — |
| Bonds held by the subsidiaries (surplus capital), 31-Dec-2025 | 5,987 | — | — |
| After-tax yield on those bonds, FY2028F | 6.0% | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2026F | 10,126 | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2028F | 11,766 | — | — |
| Operating ROE ex bonds: (total ROE x book FY28 - bonds x after-tax yield) / (book FY28 - bonds) | 9.1% | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' historical payout to the parent (average FY2024-25) | 10.5% | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' growth g = MIN(operating ROE x (1 - payout), long-run g) | 6.0% | — | — |
| Operating businesses' justified P/B: (ROE - g) / (Ke - g) | 0.2x | — | — |
| Trapped-capital haircut on the subsidiaries' bonds | 25.0% | — | — |
| Operating businesses' value (P/B x (book FY26F - bonds), discounted 62 days) | 922 | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' value: bonds at book less haircut + operating businesses | 5,412 | — | — |
| C. Per share | |||
| Sum of the parts on the P/ABV method (BDT/share) | 32.24 | — | — |
| Sum of the parts on the RI method (BDT/share) | 29.91 | — | — |
| Of which subsidiaries (BDT/share) | 11.81 | — | — |
| Weight: justified P/ABV | 70.0% | — | — |
| Weight: residual income | 30.0% | — | — |
| Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT) | 31.54 | — | — |
| Terminal share of lending residual-income value | -38.1% | — | — |
| Group book 31-Dec-2026F | 24,210 | — | — |
| Implied P/B on group book FY26F | 0.6x | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2026F (group) | 4.7 | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2027F (group) | 5.9 | — | — |
| Implied cash dividend yield FY2027F | 4.3% | — | — |
| Price / group book FY26F | 0.8x | — | — |
| Lending value implied by the price (market cap - subsidiaries' value) | 13,561 | — | — |
| Price-implied P/ABV of the lending business | 1.0x | — | — |
| Reverse check: lending ROE the price needs at our Ke (g + P/ABV x (Ke - g)) | 19.3% | — | — |
| Reverse check: Ke the price implies at our ROE_s (g + (ROE_s - g) / P/ABV) | 15.2% | — | — |
| Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values) | |||
| Bear: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend | 22.45 | 20.55 | 21.88 |
| Base: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend | 32.24 | 29.91 | 31.54 |
| Bull: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend | 43.25 | 41.68 | 42.78 |
| Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25) | 31.94 | — | — |
From the Valuation tab of the model.
| Bear (25%) | Base (50%) | Bull (25%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan growth FY2027F (SME / corporate / consumer) | 2% / 1% / -1% | 7% / 6% / 4% | 12% / 11% / 9% |
| Cost of deposits FY2027F | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| Credit cost FY2027F | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Classified ratio FY2028F | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| Subsidiaries' ROE FY2027-28F | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% |
| Cost of equity | 20.3% | 19.3% | 18.3% |
| Sustainable lending ROE (bounded by FY2021–25) | 12.0% | 15.2% | 18.0% |
| Group EPS FY2027F (BDT) | 3.68 | 5.35 | 7.08 |
| Fair value (BDT per share) | 21.9 | 31.5 | 42.8 |
| Ke \ ROE_s | 12.2% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 18.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke 17.3% | 28.1 | 31.8 | 35.6 | 39.4 | 43.1 |
| Ke 18.3% | 26.6 | 30.0 | 33.4 | 36.8 | 40.3 |
| Ke 19.3% | 25.2 | 28.4 | 31.5 | 34.7 | 37.8 |
| Ke 20.3% | 24.1 | 27.0 | 29.9 | 32.9 | 35.8 |
| Ke 21.3% | 23.1 | 25.8 | 28.5 | 31.3 | 34.0 |
| Deposit cost \ credit cost (FY27-28) | -1.0pp | -0.5pp | +0.0pp | +0.5pp | +1.0pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deposit cost -1.0pp | 39.6 | 39.4 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 31.6 |
| Deposit cost -0.5pp | 39.3 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 31.6 | 27.0 |
| Deposit cost +0.0pp | 39.0 | 36.0 | 31.5 | 26.9 | 22.1 |
| Deposit cost +0.5pp | 36.1 | 31.5 | 26.9 | 22.1 | 21.6 |
| Deposit cost +1.0pp | 31.6 | 26.9 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 21.4 |
What the price implies. At 41.4, IDLC trades at 0.78x FY2026F group book and 6.2x FY2026F EPS. Taking our subsidiary value as given, the price values the lending business at 1.00x adjusted book. With g at 6%, that needs a sustainable lending ROE of 19.3% at our cost of equity, above IDLC's FY2021–25 range of 10.6%–18.5% (only FY2018–20, at 21.6–29.1%, were higher), or a cost of equity of about 15.2% at our 15.2% ROE.
One point on deposit costs or loan yields cuts FY2027F EPS to about 3.91 and value to BDT 22.1
Leverage of about 10x turns small rate moves into large profit moves. Each risk below is a workbook recalculation with one driver changed from the base case (FY2027F group EPS 5.35, fair value 31.5). Deposit cost, loan yield and credit cost each act on a BDT 115–135bn base, so a 1pp move shifts about BDT 1.2–1.3bn of pre-tax profit against FY2027F group profit of BDT 2.45bn. These 1pp shocks are larger than the moves in our bear and bull cases, so some single rows sit below the bear value.
| Risk (line moved) | FY2027F group EPS (BDT) | Fair value (BDT) | Likelihood | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deposit costs stay 1pp higher (no further rate cuts; NBFI deposit run) - cost of deposits | 3.91 | 22.1 | Medium | Interest expense / deposits above 10% |
| Loan yields reprice 1pp lower - interest on loans | 3.89 | 22.1 | Medium | Interest income / loans |
| Credit cost 1pp higher in FY2027-28F - provisions | 3.89 | 22.1 | Low-medium | Provision charge above BDT 400mn a quarter |
| 90-day classification rule for NBFIs: classified 6.5 / 8.5 / 9.5%, credit cost +0.6pp - provisions | 4.48 | 27.1 | Medium | DFIM circulars |
| Treasury yields 1.5pp lower - investment income | 4.71 | 27.4 | Medium | 364-day bill below 7.5% |
| Capital-market slump: subsidiaries' ROE 4% - subsidiaries' profit and value | 4.53 | 29.6 | Medium | DSE turnover; DSEX |
| Loan growth stops in FY2027-28F - loan book and interest | 5.24 | 29.2 | Low | Quarterly loan book |
| Deposit growth stops after FY2026F - government securities book | 5.37 | 31.0 | Low | Quarterly deposits |
Two risks we cannot size. First, sector contagion: a disorderly wind-up of the nine NBFIs could make institutional depositors, 44% of IDLC's deposits [1 p.354], cautious about the whole sector. Second, counterparty exposure: we could not see whether any of the BDT 2.76bn due from banks and financial institutions [1 p.349] sits with the wind-up names. As an opportunity, the subsidiaries' bond-heavy balance sheets hold surplus capital that could be paid up to the parent and redeployed.
- FY2026 annual results (expected March 2027): group profit near BDT 3.07bn and the dividend; a cash dividend below 15% would signal a capital or rule change.
- Bangladesh Bank monetary policy statements (quarterly from Q4 2026): a further cut speeds deposit repricing.
- Any DFIM circular shortening the overdue periods for NBFI loan classification or setting NBFI dividend limits.
- Progress of the nine NBFI wind-ups and depositor repayments.
Data cut-off and next update
- Latest period used: nine months to 30-Sep-2026 (IDLC Q3 2026 condensed statements, unaudited) [3].
- We will update the model when the FY2026 annual report is filed.
The model
Assumptions
| Driver | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull) | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shares outstanding (mn) | 458.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 41.40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario drivers | ||||||||
| SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | -3.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - base | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
| SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% |
| SME loan growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - active | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
| Corporate loan growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | -3.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% |
| Corporate loan growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| Corporate loan growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Corporate loan growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | -1.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | -4.0% | -1.0% | 1.0% |
| Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - base | — | — | — | — | — | -2.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% |
| Consumer loan growth (home, car, personal) - active | — | — | — | — | — | -2.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% |
| Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% |
| Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% |
| Yield on average loans (loan interest / avg loans) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% |
| Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% |
| Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
| Cost of deposits (deposit interest / avg deposits incl. security deposits) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Yield on government securities (coupon, ex gains) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Deposit growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Effective tax rate - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 47.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Effective tax rate - base | — | — | — | — | — | 47.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Effective tax rate - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 47.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Effective tax rate - active | — | — | — | — | — | 47.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 37.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 37.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 37.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (of solo NPAT) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 37.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| Classified loan ratio (year end) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Classified loan ratio (year end) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Classified loan ratio (year end) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Classified loan ratio (year end) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity, all three) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Single-path drivers | ||||||||
| Cost of borrowings, bonds, call and leases (interest / avg borrowings) | — | — | — | — | — | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| Yield on cash and bank placements | — | — | — | — | — | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% |
| Income on other investments (dividends + share gains) / avg other investments | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Gains on T-bond sales (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fees and other operating income / avg loans | — | — | — | — | — | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Staff cost growth (incl. MD) | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Other opex growth | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Borrowings growth (FY2026F: Dec-26 vs Dec-25) | — | — | — | — | — | -17.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Cash and placements / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Other investments (shares, corporate bonds; BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 2,100 | 2,100 | 2,100 |
| Fixed and other assets ex subsidiaries (FY2026F: level, BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 5,300 | — | — |
| Fixed and other assets growth | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Other liabilities / deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| RWA density (RWA / total assets) | — | — | — | — | — | 57.5% | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| Tier-2 capital (general provision, BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 1,030 | 1,050 | 1,080 |
| Write-offs / avg loans | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Interest suspense / classified loans | — | — | — | — | — | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| 30-Sep-2026 solo actuals that anchor FY2026F (9M = Jan-Sep 2026) | ||||||||
| Loans, advances and leases 30-Sep-2026 | 120,453.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deposits (term + other) 30-Sep-2026 | 116,934.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Borrowings 30-Sep-2026 | 26,553.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shareholders' equity 30-Sep-2026 | 17,498.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Government securities 30-Sep-2026 | 34,339.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash, BB balance and bank placements 30-Sep-2026 | 8,860.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 interest income | 12,456.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 interest expense | 10,086.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 investment income (incl. any T-bond gains) | 2,674.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 fees, commission and other operating income | 428.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 staff cost (salaries + MD) | 1,497.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 other operating expenses | 794.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 total provisions | 591.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 profit before tax | 2,590.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 tax | 1,171.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 net profit after tax | 1,419.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 subsidiaries' profit (group 2,067.2 - solo 1,419.2) | 648.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 group profit (consolidated) | 2,067.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9M 2026 subsidiaries' profit (group - solo) | 648.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 true-up: group Q4 / (9M / 3), median FY2022-25 | 1.46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valuation inputs (bear / base / bull in columns B / C / D, active in E) | ||||||||
| Cost of equity scenario adjustment | 1.0% | 0.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Long-run growth g (terminal) | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Adjustment to sustainable lending ROE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Haircut h on net classified loans (after provisions and suspense) | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Shift to the long-run (normalised) credit cost | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Shift to the subsidiaries' sustainable ROE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Income statement
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest income | — | — | — | 14,492 | 16,321 | 16,577 | 16,173 | 16,696 |
| Interest on loans and leases (incl. loan against deposit) | — | — | — | 13,263 | 15,251 | 15,712 | 15,370 | 15,867 |
| Interest on bank placements and other | — | — | — | 1,229 | 1,070 | 864 | 803 | 829 |
| Interest paid on deposits and borrowings | — | — | — | 10,103 | 12,740 | 13,423 | 12,855 | 13,156 |
| Interest on term and security deposits | — | — | — | 8,595 | 11,201 | 11,936 | 11,508 | 11,824 |
| Interest on borrowings, bonds, call loans and leases | — | — | — | 1,508 | 1,539 | 1,487 | 1,347 | 1,332 |
| Net interest income | — | — | — | 4,389 | 3,581 | 3,154 | 3,318 | 3,540 |
| Investment income | — | — | — | 1,208 | 2,618 | 3,572 | 3,478 | 3,674 |
| Government securities and bonds (coupon) | — | — | — | 730 | 1,819 | 3,391 | 3,352 | 3,548 |
| Gains on T-bond sales | — | — | — | 206 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends and gains on shares | — | — | — | 273 | 449 | 181 | 126 | 126 |
| Fees, commission and other operating income | — | — | — | 627 | 606 | 570 | 620 | 661 |
| Total operating income | 5,870 | 5,500 | 5,338 | 6,225 | 6,805 | 7,295 | 7,415 | 7,874 |
| Staff cost (salaries + MD) | — | — | — | 1,650 | 1,828 | 1,997 | 2,156 | 2,307 |
| Other operating expenses | — | — | — | 945 | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,122 | 1,190 |
| Total operating expenses | 2,218 | 2,415 | 2,530 | 2,595 | 2,901 | 3,055 | 3,279 | 3,497 |
| Profit before provisions | 3,652 | 3,085 | 2,808 | 3,630 | 3,905 | 4,240 | 4,137 | 4,377 |
| Total provisions | 909 | 1,006 | 1,006 | 688 | 716 | 832 | 1,054 | 1,124 |
| Profit before tax | 2,743 | 2,079 | 1,802 | 2,942 | 3,188 | 3,407 | 3,083 | 3,254 |
| Tax | 1,167 | 459 | 708 | 1,269 | 1,411 | 1,555 | 1,418 | 1,497 |
| Q4 true-up to the 9M run-rate (FY2026F only; F03 Q4 rule) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 0 | 0 |
| Net profit after tax (solo) | 1,576 | 1,620 | 1,094 | 1,673 | 1,777 | 2,111 | 1,665 | 1,757 |
| Subsidiaries' net profit | — | — | — | 524 | 664 | 964 | 789 | 851 |
| Group net profit (solo + subsidiaries) | 2,116 | 1,915 | 1,514 | 2,198 | 2,441 | 3,074 | 2,454 | 2,607 |
| Solo EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares) | 3.44 | 3.53 | 2.39 | 3.65 | 3.88 | 4.61 | 3.63 | 3.83 |
| Group EPS (BDT, on 458.3mn shares) | 4.62 | 4.18 | 3.30 | 4.79 | 5.33 | 6.71 | 5.35 | 5.69 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on current shares) | — | — | — | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.70 | 1.34 | 1.42 |
Balance sheet
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loan book by segment (solo) | ||||||||
| SME loans | — | — | 45,500 | 43,450 | 46,940 | 46,471 | 49,724 | 53,701 |
| Corporate loans | — | — | 32,390 | 34,220 | 41,552 | 41,136 | 43,605 | 47,093 |
| Consumer loans (home, car, personal) | — | — | 35,450 | 35,180 | 33,494 | 32,824 | 34,137 | 36,185 |
| Assets | ||||||||
| Cash, BB balance and placements with banks | — | — | — | 10,852 | 10,654 | 9,417 | 10,170 | 11,086 |
| Government securities (plug in forecast) | — | — | — | 9,134 | 29,471 | 35,222 | 39,397 | 43,465 |
| Other investments (shares, corporate bonds) | — | — | — | 2,306 | 2,427 | 2,100 | 2,100 | 2,100 |
| Loans, advances and leases | — | — | 113,340 | 112,850 | 121,986 | 120,431 | 127,465 | 136,980 |
| Investment in subsidiaries (at cost) | — | — | — | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,100 |
| Fixed assets, other assets and non-banking assets (ex subsidiaries) | — | — | — | 3,583 | 4,286 | 5,300 | 5,565 | 5,843 |
| Total assets | 136,756 | 143,868 | 142,877 | 142,825 | 172,925 | 176,570 | 188,797 | 203,573 |
| Liabilities and equity | ||||||||
| Deposits (term + security/other deposits) | — | — | — | 87,669 | 111,051 | 117,714 | 127,131 | 138,573 |
| Borrowings (BB refinance, bank loans, bonds) | — | — | — | 27,914 | 31,984 | 26,546 | 27,343 | 28,163 |
| Other liabilities (incl. provisions, interest suspense, tax) | — | — | — | 11,602 | 13,162 | 14,126 | 15,256 | 16,629 |
| Shareholders' equity (solo) | 13,127 | 14,153 | 14,623 | 15,637 | 16,728 | 18,184 | 19,068 | 20,209 |
| Total liabilities and equity | — | — | — | 142,822 | 172,924 | 176,570 | 188,797 | 203,573 |
| Check: assets - (liabilities + equity) | — | — | — | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lending equity (solo equity - investment in subsidiaries) | 9,027 | 10,053 | 10,523 | 11,537 | 12,628 | 14,084 | 14,968 | 16,109 |
| Asset quality and capital | ||||||||
| Classified loans (SS + DF + BL) | — | — | — | 5,023 | 5,406 | 5,540 | 6,118 | 6,575 |
| Loan-loss provisions held (specific + general) | — | — | — | 3,872 | 3,930 | 4,399 | 5,080 | 5,808 |
| Interest suspense on loans | — | — | — | 795 | 940 | 969 | 1,071 | 1,151 |
| Net classified loans (classified - provisions - suspense) | — | — | — | 356 | 536 | 172 | -33 | -383 |
| Risk-weighted assets | — | — | — | — | 99,464 | 101,528 | 108,559 | 117,055 |
| Tier-2 capital | — | — | — | — | 999 | 1,030 | 1,050 | 1,080 |
| Cash dividend declared for the year | — | — | — | 624 | 655 | 781 | 616 | 650 |
Cash flow
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit after tax (solo) | — | — | — | — | — | 2,111 | 1,665 | 1,757 |
| Increase in deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 6,663 | 9,417 | 11,442 |
| Increase in other liabilities (incl. provisions, suspense) | — | — | — | — | — | 964 | 1,130 | 1,373 |
| Increase in loans | — | — | — | — | — | 1,555 | -7,034 | -9,514 |
| Increase in fixed and other assets | — | — | — | — | — | -1,014 | -265 | -278 |
| Operating cash flow (balance-sheet basis) | — | — | — | — | — | 10,278 | 4,913 | 4,779 |
| Increase in government securities | — | — | — | — | — | -5,751 | -4,175 | -4,068 |
| Increase in other investments | — | — | — | — | — | 327 | 0 | 0 |
| Investing cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | -5,423 | -4,175 | -4,068 |
| Increase in borrowings | — | — | — | — | — | -5,437 | 796 | 820 |
| Cash dividend paid | — | — | — | — | — | -655 | -781 | -616 |
| Financing cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | -6,092 | 15 | 204 |
| Net change in cash and placements | — | — | — | — | — | -1,237 | 753 | 915 |
| Check: net change - change in cash on balance sheet | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Memo: reported cash-flow statement (solo) | ||||||||
| Interest received in cash | — | — | — | 14,180 | 16,169 | — | — | — |
| Interest received / interest income | — | — | — | 97.8% | 99.1% | — | — | — |
Subsidiaries
| BDT mn | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDLC Securities (broker) | ||||||||
| IDLC Securities (broker): net profit | — | — | — | 301 | 351 | — | — | — |
| IDLC Securities (broker): equity | — | — | — | 4,634 | 4,985 | — | — | — |
| IDLC Investments (merchant bank) | ||||||||
| IDLC Investments (merchant bank): net profit | — | — | — | 208 | 282 | — | — | — |
| IDLC Investments (merchant bank): equity | — | — | — | 3,523 | 3,806 | — | — | — |
| IDLC Asset Management | ||||||||
| IDLC Asset Management: net profit | — | — | — | 16 | 30 | — | — | — |
| IDLC Asset Management: equity | — | — | — | 351 | 372 | — | — | — |
| Combined | ||||||||
| Subsidiaries' net profit | — | — | — | 524 | 664 | 964 | 789 | 851 |
| Subsidiaries' equity | — | — | — | 8,508 | 9,163 | 10,126 | 10,916 | 11,766 |
| Subsidiaries' ROE (NPAT / avg equity) | — | — | — | — | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Dividends paid up to the parent | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Quarterly
| BDT mn | 1Q25A | 2Q25A | 3Q25A | 4Q25A | 1Q26A | 2Q26A | 3Q26A | 4Q26F | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | 1Q28F | 2Q28F | 3Q28F | 4Q28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total operating income | 1,562.0 | 1,647.0 | 1,794.0 | 1,802.0 | 1,938.3 | 1,830.6 | 1,704.7 | 1,821.5 | 1,702.1 | 1,794.7 | 1,954.9 | 1,963.6 | 1,807.5 | 1,905.8 | 2,075.9 | 2,085.2 |
| Operating expenses | 686.0 | 675.0 | 794.0 | 745.0 | 740.0 | 743.9 | 807.6 | 763.9 | 775.6 | 763.1 | 897.7 | 842.3 | 827.2 | 813.9 | 957.4 | 898.4 |
| Provisions | 233.0 | 66.0 | 227.0 | 190.0 | 304.7 | 152.0 | 134.8 | 240.9 | 342.8 | 97.1 | 334.0 | 279.6 | 365.7 | 103.6 | 356.3 | 298.2 |
| Net profit after tax (solo) | 368.0 | 526.0 | 471.0 | 413.0 | 424.9 | 530.4 | 464.0 | 691.3 | 344.6 | 492.6 | 441.0 | 386.7 | 363.6 | 519.8 | 465.4 | 408.1 |
| Solo EPS (BDT, current shares) | 0.80 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 1.51 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 1.13 | 1.02 | 0.89 |
| Check: four quarters - FY net profit | — | — | — | 0.6 | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.0 |
Ratios
| Ratio | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loan growth (segment total) | — | — | — | -0.4% | 8.1% | -1.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% |
| Deposit growth | — | — | — | — | 26.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Yield on average loans | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.0% |
| Cost of deposits | — | — | — | — | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| Cost of borrowings | — | — | — | — | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| Cost of funds (deposits + borrowings) | — | — | — | — | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Spread (loan yield - cost of funds) | — | — | — | — | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| NII / avg loans | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Investment income / total operating income | — | — | — | 19.4% | 38.5% | 49.0% | 46.9% | 46.7% |
| Cost-to-income | 37.8% | 43.9% | 47.4% | 41.7% | 42.6% | 41.9% | 44.2% | 44.4% |
| Credit cost (total provisions / avg loans) | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Classified loan ratio | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Coverage ((provisions + suspense) / classified) | — | — | — | 92.9% | 90.1% | 96.9% | 100.5% | 105.8% |
| Capital adequacy ratio (solo) | — | — | — | — | 17.8% | 18.9% | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| Leverage (avg assets / avg equity) | — | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| ROA (NPAT / avg assets) | — | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| ROE solo (NPAT / avg equity) | — | 11.9% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| ROE of the lending business (solo NPAT / avg lending equity) | — | — | — | — | 14.7% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% |
| Lending ROE history (reported solo NPAT / avg solo equity less 4,100 subsidiary cost) | 18.5% | 17.0% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 14.7% | — | — | — |
| Group book (solo equity - cost + subsidiaries' equity) | — | — | — | 20,046 | 21,791 | 24,210 | 25,883 | 27,875 |
| ROE group (group NPAT / avg group book) | — | — | — | — | 11.7% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Group book value per share (BDT, current shares) | — | — | — | 43.74 | 47.55 | 52.83 | 56.48 | 60.82 |
| P/B (group) at 41.4 | — | — | — | — | 0.9x | 0.8x | 0.7x | 0.7x |
| P/E (group) at 41.4 | — | — | — | — | 7.8 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| Cash dividend yield at 41.4 | — | — | — | — | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
Valuation
| BDT mn unless stated | Value / FY2026F | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lending business (solo, ex subsidiaries) | |||
| Lending equity 31-Dec-2025 (solo 16,728 - subsidiaries at cost 4,100) | 12,628 | — | — |
| Less: h x net classified loans (if positive) 31-Dec-2025 | 268 | — | — |
| Adjusted lending book (ABV) 31-Dec-2025 | 12,360 | — | — |
| Solo net profit | 2,111 | 1,665 | 1,757 |
| Opening lending equity | 12,628 | 14,084 | 14,968 |
| Equity charge (Ke x opening lending equity) | 2,437 | 2,718 | 2,889 |
| Residual income | -327 | -1,053 | -1,132 |
| Discount factor (from 31-Dec-2025) | 0.84 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| PV of residual income | -274 | -740 | -667 |
| Sum of PV residual income FY2026F-FY2028F | -1,681 | — | — |
| Normalised credit cost: average FY2021-25 | 0.8% | — | — |
| Normalised tax rate: average FY2021-25 | 46.5% | — | — |
| Normalised FY2028F profit: (PPOP - normalised credit cost x avg loans) x (1 - normalised tax) | 1,757 | — | — |
| Normalised lending ROE (normalised profit / avg lending equity FY2027-28F) | 11.3% | — | — |
| Memo: base-case normalised lending ROE (model) | 11.3% | — | — |
| Lending ROE history FY2021-25: median | 15.2% | — | — |
| Lending ROE history FY2021-25: low | 10.6% | — | — |
| Lending ROE history FY2021-25: high | 18.5% | — | — |
| Sustainable lending ROE: history median + scenario shift (model), bounded by the FY21-25 range | 15.2% | — | — |
| Terminal payout consistent with g: 1 - g / ROE_s | 60.4% | — | — |
| Memo: no-growth alternative ROE_s / Ke (full payout, g = 0) | 0.8x | — | — |
| Justified P/ABV: (ROE_s - g) / (Ke - g) | 0.7x | — | — |
| Lending equity 31-Dec-2028 | 16,109 | — | — |
| PV of terminal excess return ((P/ABV - 1) x book FY28 x DF) | -2,948 | — | — |
| Lending residual-income value 31-Dec-2025 | 7,731 | — | — |
| Lending ABV 31-Dec-2026F (lending book - h x net classified if positive) | 13,998 | — | — |
| Lending value, P/ABV method: justified P/ABV x ABV FY26F, discounted 62 days | 9,363 | — | — |
| Lending value, RI method: rolled to 30-Oct-2026 at Ke, less FY25 cash dividend paid | 8,297 | — | — |
| B. Subsidiaries (each on its own audited book; capital-market businesses) | |||
| Subsidiaries' total ROE FY2028F (+ shift) | 7.5% | — | — |
| Bonds held by the subsidiaries (surplus capital), 31-Dec-2025 | 5,987 | — | — |
| After-tax yield on those bonds, FY2028F | 6.0% | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2026F | 10,126 | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' book 31-Dec-2028F | 11,766 | — | — |
| Operating ROE ex bonds: (total ROE x book FY28 - bonds x after-tax yield) / (book FY28 - bonds) | 9.1% | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' historical payout to the parent (average FY2024-25) | 10.5% | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' growth g = MIN(operating ROE x (1 - payout), long-run g) | 6.0% | — | — |
| Operating businesses' justified P/B: (ROE - g) / (Ke - g) | 0.2x | — | — |
| Trapped-capital haircut on the subsidiaries' bonds | 25.0% | — | — |
| Operating businesses' value (P/B x (book FY26F - bonds), discounted 62 days) | 922 | — | — |
| Subsidiaries' value: bonds at book less haircut + operating businesses | 5,412 | — | — |
| C. Per share | |||
| Sum of the parts on the P/ABV method (BDT/share) | 32.24 | — | — |
| Sum of the parts on the RI method (BDT/share) | 29.91 | — | — |
| Of which subsidiaries (BDT/share) | 11.81 | — | — |
| Weight: justified P/ABV | 70.0% | — | — |
| Weight: residual income | 30.0% | — | — |
| Fair value per share, active scenario (BDT) | 31.54 | — | — |
| Terminal share of lending residual-income value | -38.1% | — | — |
| Group book 31-Dec-2026F | 24,210 | — | — |
| Implied P/B on group book FY26F | 0.6x | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2026F (group) | 4.7 | — | — |
| Implied P/E FY2027F (group) | 5.9 | — | — |
| Implied cash dividend yield FY2027F | 4.3% | — | — |
| Price / group book FY26F | 0.8x | — | — |
| Lending value implied by the price (market cap - subsidiaries' value) | 13,561 | — | — |
| Price-implied P/ABV of the lending business | 1.0x | — | — |
| Reverse check: lending ROE the price needs at our Ke (g + P/ABV x (Ke - g)) | 19.3% | — | — |
| Reverse check: Ke the price implies at our ROE_s (g + (ROE_s - g) / P/ABV) | 15.2% | — | — |
| Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values) | |||
| Bear: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend | 22.45 | 20.55 | 21.88 |
| Base: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend | 32.24 | 29.91 | 31.54 |
| Bull: P/ABV SOTP / RI SOTP / blend | 43.25 | 41.68 | 42.78 |
| Probability-weighted (25 / 50 / 25) | 31.94 | — | — |
WACC
| Cost of equity input | Value |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate: 10-yr BD T-bond cut-off yield | 9.3% |
| Raw beta: 2-yr weekly vs DSEX (105 returns to 29-Oct-2026) | 1.30 |
| Blume-adjusted beta (0.67 x raw + 0.33) | 1.20 |
| Beta used | 1.20 |
| Equity risk premium | 7.5% |
| NBFI premium (A-category) | 1.0% |
| Cost of equity, base (Rf + beta x ERP + premium) | 19.3% |
| Scenario adjustment (active) | 0.0% |
| Cost of equity used (active scenario) | 19.3% |
| Long-run growth g used: MIN(input, ROE_s x retention) | 6.0% |
| Memo: BB policy rate | 9.5% |
| Memo: 364-day T-bill cut-off | 8.8% |
Sensitivity
| Grid (row input x column input) | Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 (base) | Col 4 | Col 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid A: cost of equity (rows) x sustainable lending ROE (columns); fair value per share, base boxed | |||||
| Ke \ ROE_s | 12.2% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 18.2% |
| Ke 17.30% | 28.1 | 31.8 | 35.6 | 39.4 | 43.1 |
| Ke 18.30% | 26.6 | 30.0 | 33.4 | 36.8 | 40.3 |
| Ke 19.30% | 25.2 | 28.4 | 31.5 | 34.7 | 37.8 |
| Ke 20.30% | 24.1 | 27.0 | 29.9 | 32.9 | 35.8 |
| Ke 21.30% | 23.1 | 25.8 | 28.5 | 31.3 | 34.0 |
| Grid B: deposit-cost shock FY27-28 (rows) x credit-cost shock FY27-28 and long run (columns); fair value per share | |||||
| Deposit cost \ credit cost | -1.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Deposit cost -1.0pp | 39.6 | 39.4 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 31.6 |
| Deposit cost -0.5pp | 39.3 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 31.6 | 27.0 |
| Deposit cost +0.0pp | 39.0 | 36.0 | 31.5 | 26.9 | 22.1 |
| Deposit cost +0.5pp | 36.1 | 31.5 | 26.9 | 22.1 | 21.6 |
| Deposit cost +1.0pp | 31.6 | 26.9 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 21.4 |
| Grid C: same shocks; FY2027F group EPS (BDT) | |||||
| Deposit cost \ credit cost (EPS) | -1.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| EPS: deposit cost -1.0pp | 8.04 | 7.53 | 6.80 | 6.07 | 5.34 |
| EPS: deposit cost -0.5pp | 7.32 | 6.81 | 6.08 | 5.35 | 4.62 |
| EPS: deposit cost +0.0pp | 6.60 | 6.08 | 5.35 | 4.62 | 3.89 |
| EPS: deposit cost +0.5pp | 5.87 | 5.36 | 4.63 | 3.90 | 3.17 |
| EPS: deposit cost +1.0pp | 5.15 | 4.64 | 3.91 | 3.18 | 2.45 |
FAQ
- What is IDLC Finance's fair value?
- Our fair value range is BDT 22–43 a share, base 31.5; the price on 29-Oct-2026 was 41.4. It is a sum of the parts: the lending business at 0.69x adjusted book for a 15.2% sustainable ROE (the FY2021–25 median), the subsidiaries' BDT 6.0bn of bonds at 75% of book and their operating businesses at 0.23x.
- What drives the gap between the base and the price?
- Mainly the discount rate. Our 19.3% cost of equity uses the 9.27% ten-year bond, a Blume-adjusted beta of 1.20, a 7.5% equity premium and a 1% NBFI premium. At our ROE the price implies a cost of equity of about 15.2%.
- How much does IDLC depend on treasury income?
- Investment income was 38% of solo operating income in FY2025 and we forecast 49% in FY2026F. It fades from FY2027F as T-bond gains stop and the BDT 35bn government-securities book rolls into yields near 9%.
- What do IDLC's subsidiaries contribute?
- IDLC Securities, IDLC Investments and IDLC Asset Management earned BDT 664mn in FY2025, 27% of group profit, on BDT 9.2bn of equity (7.5% ROE). BDT 6.0bn of that equity is in bonds, which we value at 75% of book because the capital is largely retained in the subsidiaries; with the operating businesses they add BDT 11.8 a share.
- Has IDLC raised capital recently?
- No. In the last 24 months it paid 15% cash and 5% stock dividends for FY2024 and FY2025; there was no rights issue, placement or bond issue in the DSE news file.
Sources
- IDLC Finance PLC Integrated Annual Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025; audited, A. Qasem & Co.); consolidated, separate and subsidiary statements · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- IDLC Finance PLC H1 2026 condensed financial statements (unaudited, six months to 30-Jun-2026; consolidated and separate) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- IDLC Finance PLC Q3 2026 condensed financial statements (unaudited, nine months to 30-Sep-2026; consolidated and separate) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- IDLC Finance Annual Report 2021 (five-year solo highlights 2017-21; investment in subsidiaries) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- IDLC Finance Annual Report 2022 (quarterly performance 2022) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- IDLC Finance PLC Annual Report 2023 (quarterly performance 2023; investment in subsidiaries) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- IDLC Finance PLC Annual Report 2024 (segment portfolio and five-year loan series) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Dhaka Stock Exchange company news for IDLC, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, results, credit rating, Q3 2026 headline) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (IDLC, DSEX) via chart_bars, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank: treasury auction and call money pages (29-Oct-2026); Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026, Table-102 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Daily Star, 'IDLC Finance's profit rises 17% to Tk 200 crore in nine months', Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank DFIM Circular No. 04 (26-Jul-2021), loan and lease classification and provisioning for financial institutions · accessed 2026-10-31
- BSEC Order of 15-Feb-2024 on interim dividends (excludes banks, insurers and NBFIs) · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, Bangladesh Bank approves winding up nine NBFIs (Nov 2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro model (workbook on this page) · accessed 2026-10-31
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