Research

Fair value range BDT 9–29 (base 17); the price of 23.5 sits in the upper half. Jamuna now holds more government securities than loans and earns its profit on the gap between a 6–7% deposit cost and 9–10% bond yields, with equity of 6% of assets. Our sustainable ROE after the perpetual-bond coupon, 11.7%, is close to its FY2022–25 median on the same basis (10.6%) and well below a 16% cost of equity.

Fair value range BDT 9–25 (base 16) against a price of 17.3, from residual income on adjusted book. Deposit share gains, the Q4 provisioning habit and the Tk2,000 crore dividend rule decide value.

Fair value range BDT 13–34 (base 22) against a price of 21.3. Deposits grew 41% in a year at rising cost, and paid-up capital of Tk1,213 crore bars cash dividends under the new Tk2,000 crore rule.

Fair value range BDT 6–19 (base 11) against a price of 17.0. The bond book now carries profit, net interest income is negative, and paid-up capital of Tk1,392 crore bars cash dividends until it reaches Tk2,000 crore.

Fair value range BDT 11–105 (base 53) against a price of 46.6. Current, savings and bills-payable balances are 79.5% of deposits; the gross NPL ratio of 9.2%, funding cost and the dividend rule decide value.

Fair value range BDT 20–40 (base 29); the price of 23.7 sits in the lower half. Its investment income now exceeds net interest income (gross loan interest is still larger); funding cost, asset quality and a dividend year without cash decide value.

Fair value BDT 18–73 (base 42) against a price of 67.5. How far ROE falls once bond yields normalise, from 18% in FY2026F toward our 14% sustainable level, decides where in the range value lies.

Gross premium reached BDT 6.67bn in 2025 and the life fund grew BDT 1.21bn, more than in the four previous years combined, as claims fell and group business stopped losing money. The auditor says BDT 505.6m of deposits and related exposures look doubtful against a BDT 210m reserve. The stock trades at 37.4x bonus-adjusted FY2025 EPS with a 1.05% cash yield.

Fair value BDT 7–21 against a price of 29.4. Falling deposit costs lift ROE from 6.4% toward a normal 12%, still below a 16% cost of equity; one point more on deposit costs halves FY2027F EPS.