Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution valuation report: fair value BDT 1.3–18.5 (Oct 2026)

Titas Gas trades at 0.20x reported NAV because system loss of about 10% and a minimum tax on gross bills turn a regulated margin into losses; fair value range BDT 1.3–18.5

Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution PLC (DSE: TITASGAS) is Bangladesh's largest gas distributor. It buys gas from Petrobangla's producing companies, international oil companies and imported LNG, and sells it to power plants, fertilizer factories, industry, captive generators, CNG stations, shops and households in Dhaka, Narayanganj, Gazipur, Mymensingh, Tangail and the surrounding districts. End-user prices for every category are fixed by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) and the Energy Ministry; the company passes the wellhead margin, LNG charge, transmission charge, funds and VAT through to Petrobangla, BGFCL, BAPEX, GTCL and RPGCL and keeps only the distribution margin [2 p.7]. In FY2025 (year to June) it bought 15,153.5 million cubic metres (MMCM) and sold 13,718.0 MMCM, for revenue of BDT 354.3bn [1 p.93] [1 p.139].

The business is a regulated spread, but the spread is now negative. The 1,435.5 MMCM of gas that went missing in FY2025, a system loss of 9.47% against the 2% BERC allows, cost BDT 24.2bn above the allowance, according to the auditor [1 p.61] [1 p.102]. That is three times the BDT 7.7bn net loss. On top, since FY2024 the tax deducted at source from gas bills counts as a minimum tax, so the company paid BDT 6.8bn of tax on a pre-tax loss of BDT 0.7bn [1 p.95]. Interest on about BDT 80bn of cash and fixed deposits, BDT 5.8bn in FY2025, is what kept the pre-tax loss small [1 p.139].

FY2026 was a little better. The board reported a loss per share of BDT 6.02 (FY2025: 7.80), NAV of BDT 83.94 a share and a 2% cash dividend on 27-Oct-2026 [5]. The improvement is the tax rate on gas bills, cut from 2% to 0.6% by the Finance Ordinance 2025, not the gas business: the nine-month gross loss was BDT 2.6bn against a BDT 3.5bn loss a year earlier [2 p.2] [2 p.9]. The audited FY2026 statements are not yet in our filings; we use the DSE-announced totals with the nine months to 31-Mar-2026 as the line-item base, and will update the model when the annual report is filed.

Our base case lets system loss fall half a point a year, from 9.5% in FY2027F to 7.5% in FY2031F, with no change in BERC prices. Losses narrow from BDT -5.86 a share in FY2027F to -1.00 in FY2031F, but the company does not break even inside five years because the minimum tax of about BDT 3.2bn a year is charged on revenue, not profit [8]. We value the shares at BDT 1.3–18.5, base BDT 3.6 and probability-weighted 5.8, from residual income on an adjusted book of BDT 30.6 a share (50%), a recovery factor on that book (25%) and a dividend discount model (25%). The price of BDT 16.6 sits inside the range, near the bull case: it implies a return of 10.3% a year on adjusted book at our 19.1% cost of equity, a level the company last earned in FY2017.

Put plainly: most of the value rests on two things outside the company's control. The first is collecting BDT 164bn of receivables, BDT 87.8bn of it from power plants and fertilizer factories, much of it overdue; the second is a policy decision, by BERC or the Energy Ministry, to cover the cost of lost gas through the margin or to bring the loss down. Without either, residual income on the book is close to zero.

Titas keeps a distribution margin of about 4.8% of purchase cost; 95% of revenue is pass-through gas cost

Titas was set up in 1964 with the Titas field and has been listed on the DSE since 2008. Petrobangla, the state oil and gas corporation, owns 75% [2 p.5]; the board is chaired by the Energy Division and includes Petrobangla and Finance Division officials [2 p.10]. The company's franchise covers greater Dhaka and Mymensingh, Bangladesh's main industrial region, which makes it the distributor for most of the country's ready-made garment, textile and steel factories that run captive generators on gas.

Revenue is two things. Gas sales, BDT 336.1bn in FY2025, are volume times the category price set by the Energy Ministry's gazettes of 18-Jan-2023 and 29-Apr-2024 and BERC Order 2025/06 of 13-Apr-2025 [1 p.166]. Operational income, BDT 18.2bn, is meter rent, higher-heating-value (HHV) adjustments, a BERC demand charge on approved load, late-payment penalties and fines [1 p.166]. Cost of sales, BDT 354.1bn, is the purchase side: the LNG charge (BDT 267.4bn, 76% of the total), IOC gas (BDT 20.5bn), wellhead margins, GTCL's transmission charge (BDT 13.5bn), the Gas Development Fund, the Energy Security Fund and VAT (BDT 32.4bn) [1 p.167]. Every one of those charges is set per cubic metre, so the purchase bill is billed on gas received while the sales bill is on gas metered to customers; the gap is the system loss.

Measured on purchase cost, the average sale price was 4.8% above the average purchase cost in FY2025 (FY2024: 4.9%). That mark-up is the margin BERC allows plus the effect of the category mix. With a 9.47% loss, Titas sold only 90.5% of what it paid for, so the gas business lost BDT 18.0bn before operational income [8]. The break-even loss at this mark-up is about 4.6%, more than double the 2% allowance.

Why the purchase bill keeps rising matters for the margin. Imported LNG is priced off oil-linked and spot contracts in US dollars, so the LNG charge that Petrobangla passes to Titas rises with world gas prices and with the taka's fall against the dollar. Titas does not carry that risk directly: the LNG charge is a pass-through set by the same gazettes as the end-user price [1 p.162]. What it does carry is the volume risk of losing gas that now costs BDT 24.6 a cubic metre instead of BDT 10.6 in FY2021. A 9.5% loss on cheap domestic gas cost little; the same loss on imported LNG costs billions. That is the main reason losses appeared in FY2023, when the LNG charge took over the purchase bill, even though the reported loss percentage rose more gradually [1 p.123].

BERC's April-2025 order is the last price change; we assume no new order in the base case and ±0.5pp of margin in bull and bear

Gas prices in Bangladesh are set by order, not by formula. Current prices rest on the Energy Ministry gazettes of 18-Jan-2023 and 29-Apr-2024 and on BERC Order 2025/06 of 13-Apr-2025 [1 p.166]. These orders change the end-user price and the pass-through charges together, so Titas' distribution margin moves far less than the headline tariff. The average purchase cost per cubic metre rose from BDT 10.6 in FY2021 to BDT 23.4 in FY2025 as imported LNG took a larger share of supply [8]; the average sale price followed, and the mark-up held near 4.8-4.9%.

In FY2026 the average purchase cost rose to about BDT 24.6 per cubic metre (+5.2%), assuming the purchase volume was flat at the FY2025 level because the nine-month report does not give volumes [2 p.2]. No new BERC order has been announced. The base case therefore holds prices and the mark-up flat; the bull case adds 0.5pp to the mark-up from FY2028F (a margin increase at the next hearing) and the bear case takes 0.5pp off. Each 0.5pp is worth about BDT 1.7bn of revenue a year [8].

We could not read BERC's distribution-margin component in Taka per cubic metre from the filings; the orders are on BERC's website and are a gap in this report. The mark-up we use is computed from the company's own revenue and cost notes and captures margin and category mix together.

System loss of 9.47% against a 2% allowance cost BDT 24.0bn in FY2025, three times the net loss

System loss is gas the company pays for but cannot bill: leaks from old distribution pipes, illegal connections, under-estimated use by flat-rate (non-metered) households, pipes broken by road and utility works, and measurement differences between the intake points and customer meters [1 p.102]. It was 2.01% in FY2021 and FY2022, rose to 5.28% in FY2023, 7.67% in FY2024 and 9.47% in FY2025 [1 p.93]. In the nine months to March 2025 it was 10.13% [5]. For FY2026 we derive about 10.2% from the nine-month sales and cost at the FY2025 mark-up [8].

The loss is concentrated at home. Households bought 2,401 MMCM and were billed for 1,767 MMCM in FY2025, a gap of 26%, against about 6% for every other category [1 p.93]. Only 166 MMCM of the 1,767 MMCM billed to households was metered; the rest is billed at a flat monthly rate, so any increase in household use, and every illegal line, goes unbilled [1 p.166]. That is why the company's programme centres on prepaid meters (ADP-funded prepaid-meter projects are on its loan book) and on disconnecting illegal lines [1 p.102] [1 p.157].

We value the excess loss at purchase cost before VAT, as the auditor does: (9.47% − 2%) × 15,153.5 MMCM × BDT 21.23 = BDT 24.0bn, within 1% of the auditor's BDT 24.2bn [1 p.61]. Each percentage point of loss costs about BDT 3.9bn of gas revenue a year, or BDT 3.95 a share before tax [8]. The base case assumes a half-point cut a year from 9.5% in FY2027F; the bear case leaves it at 9.5%; the bull case cuts a full point a year from FY2028F to 5.5%. Even the bull case stays above the allowance, as the QA rule requires.

Gas bought fell 6.4% from FY2021 to 15,154 MMCM in FY2025; captive power and industry are 56% of volume

Titas' volume is set by supply, not demand. Petrobangla allocates gas among distributors; domestic production has been declining and imported LNG, which made up BDT 267.4bn of the BDT 354.1bn purchase bill in FY2025, fills part of the gap at a much higher price [1 p.167]. Titas' purchases fell from 16,182.8 MMCM in FY2021 to 15,153.5 MMCM in FY2025, a compound decline of 1.6% a year [1 p.93]. We hold purchases flat at that level in the base case; the risk table shows a 3% a year decline.

The customer mix matters because prices differ by category. Captive power (factories' own generators, 3,990 MMCM sold) and industry (3,738 MMCM) together took 56% of sales and paid BDT 35.0 and 27.8 per cubic metre; state power plants (2,752 MMCM) paid BDT 8.0 [1 p.166]. The notes allocate cost by category too: on that allocation power plants cost BDT 43.5bn to supply and paid BDT 22.1bn, while captive users paid BDT 139.6bn for gas costing BDT 120.3bn [1 p.167]. The cross-subsidy runs from factories to power plants, and the shift of 707 MMCM away from power in FY2025 is why revenue fell less than volume.

Volume growth on its own does not help while the loss is above the break-even level: more gas bought at 9.5% loss means more loss. A fall in purchases (our risk case) actually raises value slightly, because the fixed minimum tax and opex are the same while the loss shrinks with volume.

Looking ahead, three things drive the category mix; these are general context, not figures from the filings. First, the government's push to move factories from captive generators to the grid would shift volume from Titas' best-paying category (captive, BDT 35.0 a cubic metre) to power plants (BDT 8.0); the notes' cost allocation suggests this would deepen the gas loss. Second, CNG volume (727 MMCM) is stable but faces conversion of vehicles to LPG and electric. Third, domestic volume has been flat at 2,371-2,525 MMCM bought a year since FY2021 while its loss is the largest [1 p.93]. We do not change the mix in the forecast; it is a risk to the mark-up that we cover with the ±0.5pp bear and bull cases.

Minimum tax of about BDT 3.2bn a year is charged on gross bills; interest on cash of BDT 5.4bn offsets it

Until FY2023, gas distributors were exempt from the minimum tax: tax deducted at source from their bills could be refunded against actual liability. The Finance Act 2024 removed the exemption, so TDS became a final minimum tax. In FY2025 TDS at 2% of bills was BDT 6.79bn against an actual liability of BDT 0.05bn; all of it was expensed [1 p.95] [1 p.120]. The Finance Ordinance 2025 cut the TDS rate on gas bills to 0.6% from FY2026, and nine-month current tax fell to BDT 2.34bn from 4.95bn [2 p.9]. We model tax as the higher of 0.6% of gas sales plus 20% of interest income (TDS on interest) and 20% of profit; the formula gives BDT 2.36bn for the nine months, within 1% of the booked figure.

Operating expenses net of other income were BDT 6.6bn in FY2025 and about BDT 6.8bn in FY2026F; salaries are 55% and depreciation 26% of administrative expenses after the FY2024 land revaluation and new assets [1 p.168]. We grow them 6% a year, roughly wage inflation. Finance cost is small (BDT 54mn) on BDT 4.8bn of ADP and foreign project loans [1 p.139] [1 p.157].

Interest on fixed deposits and bank balances was BDT 5.79bn in FY2025, 8.0% on an average BDT 72bn [1 p.139] [1 p.168]. The cash is a float: Titas collects end-user prices and pays Petrobangla's LNG charge and VAT later, so trade payables (BDT 187.7bn) exceed receivables (BDT 154.6bn net). Under the cash-rich rule we fade the deposit yield to the Bangladesh Bank weighted average deposit rate plus 100bp, 7.2% [7], and keep working capital flat, so cash falls with the losses from BDT 74.7bn in FY2026F to BDT 56.7bn in FY2031F and interest income from BDT 5.4bn to 4.2bn [8]. BDT 1.1bn of deposits are stuck in Padma, Global Islami, Commerce and First Security Islami banks [1 p.61]; we deduct them from book.

BDT 106.7bn of receivables are over 90 days old and the auditor qualified BDT 4.7bn of booked income

Gross trade receivables were BDT 164.3bn at June 2025, 5.2 months of revenue, and BDT 170.1bn net at March 2026 [1 p.152] [2 p.1]. Bulk customers owed BDT 87.8bn: the Bangladesh Power Development Board (PDB) BDT 35.7bn, private power plants BDT 47.6bn and BCIC's fertilizer factories BDT 4.5bn. Non-bulk customers owed BDT 76.4bn, of which industry BDT 26.6bn, households BDT 23.3bn and captive users BDT 19.2bn [1 p.152]. BDT 106.7bn was more than 90 days past due [1 p.153]. PDB and BCIC give no security deposit; other customers deposit three months' bills, BDT 36.2bn in total [1 p.152] [1 p.138]. The company provides 5% only on the yearly increase in non-bulk receivables, so the provision is BDT 9.6bn, 5.9% of the gross [1 p.153].

The FY2025 audit opinion is qualified [1 p.96] [5]. The auditor objects to BDT 4.7bn of penal interest on late bills, meter rent and demand charge billed to PDB and EGCB since 2002 and 2019 and never paid; to a BDT 1.7bn difference between Titas' receivable records and those confirmed by EGCB and Meghna Sugar Refinery; to customers' deposits without supporting detail; and to a BDT 2.9bn difference with GTCL on transmission-charge balances [1 p.61] [1 p.96]. It also notes, as emphasis, the BDT 50.5bn tax claim and the stuck FDRs [1 p.61].

Operating cash flow tells the same story. Reported NOCF was BDT 18.0bn in FY2025 despite the loss, because payables to Petrobangla rose by BDT 30.6bn [1 p.95] [1 p.123]; it turned to a BDT 2.7bn outflow in FY2026 as gas payments outran collections [5]. Cash depends on Petrobangla tolerating late payment of the LNG charge, which is itself funded by the Finance Division.

Are the receivables collectable? Partly. Households, industry and captive users post three months' security deposits, so most non-bulk arrears are covered and the company can disconnect. The bulk state customers are different: PDB and BCIC post nothing and cannot be cut off without blacking out the grid or closing fertilizer plants, and the private power plants that owe BDT 47.6bn sell their power to PDB (general context), so their payments also depend on PDB. Their ability to pay Titas depends on PDB's subsidy from the Finance Division. Against that, Titas' own largest creditor is Petrobangla, to which it owes BDT 115.5bn of LNG charge [1 p.162]; in practice the state could settle state receivables against state payables. That is why we haircut only the PDB and BCIC balances, by 25% in the base case, rather than write them off, and why the bear case doubles the haircut.

Forecast: loss per share narrows from BDT 6.02 in FY2026 to -1.00 by FY2031F; break-even needs loss near 7% or a margin increase

FY2026 first. The DSE announcement gives a loss of BDT 5.96bn (EPS −6.02) [5]. Running the nine-month lines at four-thirds gives a loss of BDT 8.19bn, so the fourth quarter was BDT 2.23bn better than the nine-month run rate. We show that gap as its own line rather than push it into a driver. Q4 was also profitable in FY2025 (+BDT 1.76bn, EPS +1.78), which points to year-end items such as HHV adjustments, penalty billing and true-ups that the quarters do not carry [5]. The audited statements will show which lines moved.

From FY2027F the model runs on drivers. Gas purchased is flat at 15,153.5 MMCM; purchase cost is held at BDT 24.59 per cubic metre; sales equal purchases less the system-loss path, priced at the FY2025 mark-up of 4.8%. Operational income stays at BDT 18.3bn. Opex grows 6% a year. Interest income is 7.2% of opening cash. Tax is the minimum tax. Dividends stay at the 2% floor the board has paid from reserves in loss years, and 70% of profit when profitable. Under these drivers the loss per share is BDT -5.86 in FY2027F, -4.68 in FY2028F and -1.00 in FY2031F; NAV falls from BDT 83.9 to 65.7 [8].

What would make Titas profitable? On our numbers, system loss near 7% with today's margin, or a 1pp higher mark-up with loss at 8%, or the restoration of the pre-2024 tax treatment. The bull case combines a loss of 5.5% by FY2031F with a 0.5pp higher mark-up and gives EPS of BDT 8.78 in FY2031F; the bear case keeps loss at 9.5% with a 0.5pp lower mark-up and gives -11.45.

Valuation: BDT 1.3–18.5, base 3.6 = 0.12x adjusted book; residual income is near zero unless loss falls

We follow the F24 method for loss-making utilities. The primary leg is residual income on an adjusted book; because the base-case return stays below the cost of equity, we add the spec's recovery factor on that book and a dividend discount model as cross-checks. Weights are 50% residual income, 25% recovery and 25% DDM. A regulated-asset value is not used: Titas has no rate base, and its PPE (BDT 56.0bn, mostly revalued land) earns nothing through the tariff. Sum of the parts does not apply: there are no subsidiaries.

Adjusted book. Reported equity at June 2026 is about BDT 83.0bn (NAV 83.94). We take out the BDT 33.4bn land revaluation surplus, which the tariff does not remunerate; the BDT 3.5bn government share money deposit now being issued as preference shares; BDT 4.7bn of booked but uncollected penal interest (BDT 1.95bn) and PDB meter rent and demand charge (BDT 2.76bn), the components the auditor qualified (the auditor's text totals them as BDT 500.05 crore, but the components sum to 470.29 crore); BDT 1.1bn of FDRs in distressed banks; and a 25% haircut on the BDT 40.2bn owed by PDB and BCIC. That leaves BDT 30.3bn, or BDT 30.58 a share [8]. The ageing over two years is in an annexure we did not read, so the haircut is applied to all state receivables (bear 50%, bull 0%).

Cost of equity is 19.1%: the 10-year treasury bond cut-off of 9.268% (25-Oct-2026) [7], plus a Blume-adjusted beta of 1.24 (raw 1.36 against DSEX on two years of weekly returns, R² 0.43; the F24 floor of 0.6 does not bind) times a 7.5% equity risk premium, plus 0.5pp for liquidity in the B category [6].

Sustainable return. On equity excluding the revaluation surplus, Titas earned 11.8%, 7.8%, 5.1%, 6.7%, 5.1%, 4.7% and 4.3% in FY2016-22, then −2.3%, −11.7% and −13.8% in FY2023-25 [4 p.157] [1 p.123]; the ten-year median is 4.9%. Our base forecast reaches -3.0% in FY2031F; we fade it half-way to the median, so the terminal return is 0.9%, with growth of 0.28% (return × 30% retention). The bear terminal return is -13.8% and the bull 11.8%, both clamped inside the FY2016-25 range; in both, the explicit forecast hits the edge of the range because a small book magnifies the return, and we do not let leverage turn that into a permanent extreme.

Result. Residual income gives BDT 1.27 a share: the explicit losses (PV BDT 24.5bn) consume most of the adjusted book. Recovery at 0.35 × BDT 30.58 gives 10.70. The DDM, at the 2% dividend floor and 70% of terminal profit, gives 1.14. The blend is BDT 3.60; bear 1.30, bull 18.50; with the F24 loss-making weights of 35/45/20 the probability-weighted value is 5.77. Because the residual-income terminal value is negative in the base case, the terminal share is not meaningful; the base value is essentially the recovery leg and the dividend floor.

Reverse check. At BDT 16.6 the shares trade at 0.54x our adjusted book and 0.20x reported NAV. With no growth, that price needs a permanent return of 10.3% on adjusted book, about 6.3% on equity excluding revaluation, which is the FY2017 level and needs the system loss back near 5% or a higher BERC margin. The cash-rich rule's distribution factor does not apply because we use no franchise P/E leg; interest income is inside the forecast profit.

Reconciling the legs. Residual income and the DDM give similar, small values in the base case because, with a terminal return near zero, almost nothing beyond the dividend floor reaches shareholders: the book that the losses consume is never paid out. The recovery leg is higher because it assumes that about a third of the adjusted book is eventually realised through state support, a tariff reset or a settlement of state receivables against payables, which the F24 method allows for loss-making utilities. In the bull case all three legs converge near BDT 18-22 because the forecast reaches a positive return above the median and the book is worth close to its recovery value. In the bear case residual income is zero and only the dividend floor and a 0.2 recovery remain. The range is therefore wide on the upside by design: it is the shape of a business whose value depends on a policy change.

History of the multiple. Over the last 52 weeks Titas traded between 0.17x and 0.25x reported NAV, averaging 0.20x [6]. In FY2016-20, when it earned 5-12% and paid 20-26% dividends, NAV was about BDT 63-71 a share [4 p.157]; we have not built the pre-2024 price-to-book series because older NAVs are not in our price feed, and we do not use any own-history multiple as a valuation leg, since the FY2022-23 floor-price years and the current losses would make it echo the price.

Beta cross-check. The raw two-year weekly beta of 1.36 is high for a regulated utility, and the R² of 0.43 is unusually strong for a DSE stock. It reflects Titas' weight among liquid state-owned shares that move with the index. A bottom-up utility beta of about 0.6-0.8 would cut the cost of equity to about 14-16%. That moves value by less than BDT 0.2 (Exhibit 27), because with near-zero residual income the base rests on the recovery and dividend legs, not on discounting.

Why the bear stacks four inputs. The bear case moves loss, margin, receivable haircut and recovery factor together because they share one cause: no policy action. If the state neither reprices gas nor funds the loss programme, it is also unlikely to settle PDB's arrears or support the book. The F24 spec gives the bear a 35% weight while a utility is loss-making, against 25% in other sectors, because three straight loss years and a qualified audit make that joint outcome the most likely alternative to our base. Each input alone is in the risk table; together they give BDT 1.3.

Peers: Titas is the only listed gas distributor in Bangladesh, as the company itself notes; Bakhrabad, Jalalabad, Karnaphuli, Pashchimanchal and Sundarban are unlisted and do not publish comparable statements here [1 p.123]. We therefore drop a peer-multiple leg rather than use regional distributors whose returns rest on a formula rate base.

Risks: an unprovided tax claim cuts fair value to BDT 0.4; system loss falling to 5.5% lifts it to 13.5

Each risk below moves a named line in the model; the fair value is a full re-run with that one driver changed. The biggest single downside is the tax dispute: the NBR has assessed BDT 50.5bn for AY2015-16 to 2024-25 against BDT 21.9bn provided, and the company's refund claims are before the Taxes Appellate Tribunal and the High Court [1 p.61] [1 p.102]. If the unprovided BDT 28.6bn were charged to book, fair value would be BDT 0.43. The receivable haircut matters next. System loss and the BERC margin matter less to the base value than one might expect, because in the base case the explicit losses already push residual income close to zero; they matter a great deal on the upside.

Two risks cut both ways. A fall in gas supply (LNG cargo shortfalls or field decline) reduces the volume on which the loss is incurred and raises value to BDT 5.61, though it would hurt the economy and collections. A lower deposit yield reduces interest income by about BDT 0.6bn a year and value to BDT 3.26. Government ownership is a support (Petrobangla has kept paying a dividend and the Finance Division is injecting preference capital) and a constraint (prices, payables and collections from state power plants are all policy decisions).

Payout. The board paid 2% (BDT 0.20 a share, about BDT 198mn) for FY2025 and again for FY2026 out of retained earnings despite losses [5]. We keep that floor, which costs about BDT 0.2bn a year of book, and pay 70% of profit when profitable, in line with FY2016-20. A Petrobangla decision to stop the dividend would take about BDT 1 off the DDM leg but leave residual income unchanged. A decision to issue more preference shares to the Finance Division would add capital ahead of ordinary holders; the BDT 3.5bn deposit is already deducted from our adjusted book.

What to watch: four signposts before the FY2027 half-year results

1. The FY2026 annual report: the fourth-quarter swing of about BDT 2.2bn against the nine-month run rate, purchase and sales volumes, the system loss for FY2026 and whether the auditor's qualifications remain.

2. System loss each quarter: the company does not publish quarterly volumes, but the gross margin per Taka of cost tracks the loss. A gross loss below BDT 0.5bn a quarter would mean loss is falling faster than our base case.

3. BERC hearings on gas prices and the distribution margin, and the FY2028 budget's TDS rate on gas bills.

4. Collections from PDB and private power plants, and the cash and FDR balance, which drives interest income.

Note: this initiation uses the FY2025 audited accounts, the un-audited nine months to 31-Mar-2026 and the FY2026 figures announced on DSE on 27-Oct-2026 (audited statements not yet filed). The model will be updated when the FY2026 annual report is filed.

Appendix: statements, ten-year history and quarterly results

FAQ

Why does Titas Gas make losses if its prices are regulated?

Because it pays for all the gas it receives but bills only what customers' meters and flat-rate tariffs record. System loss was 9.47% in FY2025 against a 2% allowance; the excess cost about BDT 24bn. Since FY2024 it also pays a minimum tax on gross bills.

What did Titas report for FY2026?

A loss per share of BDT 6.02 (FY2025: 7.80), NAV of BDT 83.94 and negative operating cash flow of BDT 2.70 a share, with a 2% cash dividend, announced on DSE on 27-Oct-2026. Audited statements are not yet filed.

What is Titas Gas's fair value range?

BDT 1.3–18.5, base BDT 3.6 and probability-weighted 5.8, against a price of BDT 16.6 on 29-Oct-2026.

Who owns Titas Gas?

Petrobangla owns 75% of the ordinary shares; the Finance Division is also being issued BDT 2.8bn of irredeemable non-cumulative preference shares.

How much do power plants owe Titas?

At June 2025 PDB owed BDT 35.7bn and private power plants BDT 47.6bn; BDT 106.7bn of all receivables were more than 90 days past due.

Sources

1. Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution PLC Annual Report 2024-25 (audited statements to 30-Jun-2025, five-year table, volumes, notes, auditor's report) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. Titas Gas un-audited Q3 financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Titas Gas Annual Report 2020-21 (six-year revenue and profit, volumes) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. Titas Gas Annual Report 2019-20 (comparative financial information FY2016-20) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. DSE announcements for TITASGAS, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (FY2026 EPS -6.02, NAV 83.94, NOCFPS -2.70, 2% dividend, 27-Oct-2026; quarterly results; preference-share issue; qualified opinion) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. AnalystBro market data: DSE:TITASGAS daily and weekly bars (chart_bars), DSEX weekly bars, to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction cut-off yields (10-year BGTB 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026) and scheduled banks' weighted average deposit rate 6.21% · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. AnalystBro TITASGAS model (model.xlsx): forecasts, valuation, scenarios, sensitivities · link · accessed 2026-10-31