Shahjibazar Power valuation report: fair value BDT 18.5–51.2 (Oct 2026)
Shahjibazar Power: NENP plant to 2029, fair value BDT 18.5-51.2
Fair value BDT 18.5-51.2 (base 38.3) from a plant-by-plant SOTP to each contract end; FY26 EPS of BDT 6.04 rests on NENP dispatch and an associate that pays no dividend.
For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Plant SOTP to contract ends (CoE 17.2%) 70% · P/E 7.0x FY27F 30%
- SPCL 86 MW plant৳10
- Midland Power stake and direct MEPL stake৳11
- Petromax Refinery, cash, less tax disputes৳5
- P/E leg (30%)৳12
- No capacity payment left at SPCL's own plant. The 86 MW plant runs on a 'no electricity, no payment' renewal to 9-Jul-2029, earning BDT 3.11 per kWh over gas in 9M FY26. → Contracts →
- Half the profit is the associate. Midland Power contributed BDT 413.7 mn of BDT 815.3 mn attributable profit in 9M FY26; we expect 43% in FY27F. → Group →
- BPDB owed BDT 3.1bn in Mar-26 (257 days). SPCL in turn owed Jalalabad Gas BDT 2.3bn and pays a delay charge. → Receivables →
- EPS peaks at BDT 6.04 in FY26 and eases to 5.69 in FY27F and 4.09 in FY30F as dispatch normalises and contracts roll off. → Forecast →
- Fair value BDT 18.5-51.2, base 38.3 = 6.7x FY27F EPS and 0.88x NAV. → Valuation →
| FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL plant factor | 62% | 79% | 75% | 72% | 70% |
| Electricity sold to BPDB (mn kWh) | 470.8 | 596.7 | 565.0 | 542.4 | 527.4 |
| Revenue | 12,330 | 14,173 | 14,220 | 14,344 | 14,535 |
| Revenue, SPCL (fuel part + non-fuel part) | 3,581 | 4,555 | 4,313 | 4,141 | 4,026 |
| EBITDA, SPCL plant | 984 | 1,220 | 1,209 | 1,115 | 1,044 |
| Share of profit of associate (MPCL) | 257 | 573 | 459 | 449 | 386 |
| Profit attributable to owners | 473 | 1,127 | 1,062 | 1,013 | 1,009 |
| EPS (BDT) | 2.53 | 6.04 | 5.69 | 5.43 | 5.41 |
| Dividend per share declared for the year (BDT) | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.42 | 3.26 | 3.24 |
| P/E at BDT 55.9 | 22.1x | 9.3x | 9.8x | 10.3x | 10.3x |
| P/B at BDT 55.9 | 1.4x | 1.3x | 1.2x | 1.2x | 1.1x |
| Dividend yield at BDT 55.9 | 3.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| BPDB receivable days | 183 | 150 | 150 | 140 | 130 |
Thesis: finite power contracts put Shahjibazar Power's fair value at BDT 18.5-51.2, base 38.3
Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. (DSE: SPCL) is a Bangladeshi independent power producer (IPP) with three earnings streams: its own 86 MW gas-fired plant at Fatepur, Habiganj that sells to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB); a 49% stake in Midland Power Co. (a 51 MW gas plant and, through it, 88.24% of the 150 MW HFO-fired Midland East Power at Ashuganj); and 90% of Petromax Refinery Ltd., a condensate refinery in Mongla that sells all its output to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) [s1 p.15; s2 p.4].
FY2026 was the best year in the company's recent history. The board disclosed consolidated EPS of BDT 6.04 (FY2025: 2.53), NAV per share of BDT 43.29 and a 40% cash dividend on 27-Oct-2026 [4]. The full FY2026 statements are not yet public, so this report uses the audited FY2025 accounts and the 9M FY2026 interim (to 31-Mar-2026) as the latest filed statements, and the DSE disclosure for the FY2026 totals.
Our view is that FY2026 is close to a peak. SPCL's own plant now earns no capacity payment: it was renewed in July 2024 on 'no electricity, no payment' (NENP) terms for five years, so profit depends on how much gas it gets and how often BPDB dispatches it. That contract ends on 9-Jul-2029. Midland Power's 51 MW PPA runs, on our reading of its 15-year term, to about December 2028, and Midland East's to about November 2033. We model each contract to its end and value the parts separately. The base case (BDT 38.3) assumes a second NENP renewal for SPCL's plant at a 50% plant factor; the bear case (BDT 18.5) shuts it in 2029 with lower dispatch, a contract-review haircut and slower BPDB payment; the bull case (BDT 51.2) renews at 65% with a strong HFO year at Midland East.
Bulls say
- The NENP renewal works: the plant ran at 77% in 9M FY26 and 90% in Q1 FY26, because gas power at BDT 7.63/kWh is among the cheapest BPDB buys [s3 p.15-16; s4].
- Midland East's HFO plant earned BDT 461 mn in 9M FY26; at 600 mn a year to 2033 the bull case reaches BDT 51.2.
- SPCL also owns 11.66% of Midland East directly, carried at BDT 11.7 mn cost but valued at BDT 1.0 a share in our base [1 p.26].
Bears say
- With no capacity payment, a gas cut of 10 points of plant factor takes FY27F EPS to BDT 5.01 (base 5.69).
- If BPDB does not renew in 2029, FY30F revenue from the plant is zero; the bear case is BDT 18.5.
- Midland pays SPCL no dividends: in FY25 and 9M FY26 the only dividend SPCL received was BDT 90 mn from its refinery [s1 p.34; s3 p.5]. Associate profit is book profit, not cash.
Data
| Oct-24 | Dec-24 | Feb-25 | Mar-25 | May-25 | Jul-25 | Sep-25 | Nov-25 | Jan-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | Jun-26 | Aug-26 | 29-Oct-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL (rebased 100) | 100.00 | 87.00 | 87.30 | 87.00 | 95.10 | 112.40 | 120.50 | 139.90 | 128.00 | 124.40 | 136.50 | 151.80 | 136.80 | 144.80 |
| DSEX (rebased 100) | 100.00 | 97.10 | 98.50 | 99.00 | 89.60 | 102.90 | 103.00 | 95.60 | 97.00 | 101.80 | 99.80 | 110.40 | 107.70 | 103.00 |
SPCL owns 86 MW outright and 49% of 201 MW at Midland; the associate was 51% of 9M FY26 profit
Shahjibazar Power was incorporated in 2007, won a BPDB tender in February 2008 and began commercial operation of its 86 MW gas-engine plant on 10-Feb-2009; it listed on the DSE and CSE in July 2014 [s1 p.15; s2 p.4]. Jalalabad Gas Transmission and Distribution supplies the gas under a gas sales agreement renewed in July 2024 [2 p.32].
The group has three other legs. Petromax Refinery (PRL), 90% owned and consolidated, fractionates natural gas condensate into diesel, kerosene, petrol and octane for BPC; it produced 113.3 mn litres in FY2025 and made up 71% of group revenue [s1 p.2; s2 p.35]. Midland Power Co. (MPCL), 49% owned and equity-accounted, runs a 51 MW gas plant at Ashuganj (COD 7-Dec-2013) and owns 88.24% of Midland East Power (MEPL), a 150 MW HFO plant on the same site (COD 26-Nov-2018); SPCL holds the other 11.66% of MEPL directly [s1 p.15, p.34; s2 p.4]. MPCL and MEPL are significant for this report: the associate was about half of 9M FY2026 attributable profit, so both are analysed with their own figures (from SPCL's associate note) below.
| Entity | Business | Ownership | FY25 profit (BDT mn, 100%) | 9M FY26 profit (BDT mn, 100%) | How it reaches SPCL's accounts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL 86 MW plant | Gas power, BPDB | Parent | 229.3 | 327.2 | Consolidated line by line |
| Petromax Refinery Ltd | Condensate refinery, BPC | 90% | -15.4 | 82.7 | Consolidated; 10% NCI |
| Midland Power Co Ltd (own plant) | 51 MW gas, BPDB | 49% | 411.9 | 437.3 | Equity method |
| Midland East Power Ltd | 150 MW HFO, BPDB | 88.24% MPCL, 11.66% SPCL | 128.0 | 461.2 | Inside MPCL's profit; SPCL's direct 11.66% held at cost (BDT 11.7 mn) |
Revenue is dominated by the refinery, but profit is not. In FY2025 PRL booked BDT 8,749 mn of revenue and a net loss of BDT 15 mn, while the power plant's BDT 3,581 mn of revenue produced most of the operating profit [s1 p.33; s2 p.117]. Non-controlling interests take only 10% of PRL, so almost all consolidated profit belongs to SPCL shareholders (NCI was BDT 8.3 mn of BDT 823.6 mn in 9M FY26) [3 p.3].
Data
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL power | 2,338.00 | 3,581.00 | 4,555.00 | 4,313.00 | 4,141.00 | 4,026.00 | 2,700.00 |
| Petromax Refinery | 8,827.00 | 8,749.00 | 9,618.00 | 9,906.00 | 10,203.00 | 10,510.00 | 10,825.00 |
Plant registry: SPCL's own NENP term ends on 9-Jul-2029; the Midland dates are our reading
The table below is the core of the valuation. SPCL's own plant is already past its original 15-year PPA (which expired on 9-Feb-2024); the plant was shut from 11-Feb-2024 and restarted on 1-Aug-2024 under the NENP amendment [s4, 14-Nov-2024; s13; s14]. Midland Power's PPA with BPDB was signed on 11-Apr-2012 for 15 years with a provision for renewal [1 p.15]; counting from COD this ends around December 2028. Midland East was built as a 15-year build-own-operate plant from its November 2018 COD, as reported by The Financial Express [9], which puts its end around November 2033. The exact MPCL and MEPL contract dates are not in SPCL's filings: they are our reading and a labelled gap.
| Plant | MW | Fuel | Offtaker | Commercial operation | Contract to | Basis now | SPCL interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shahjibazar (Fatepur, Habiganj) | 86 | Gas | BPDB | 10-Feb-2009 | 9-Jul-2029 | NENP renewal (energy only, no capacity payment) | 100% |
| Midland Power (Ashuganj) | 51 | Gas | BPDB | 7-Dec-2013 | ~Dec-2028 (15 yrs, our reading) | Original PPA | 49% (associate) |
| Midland East Power (Ashuganj) | 150 | HFO | BPDB | 26-Nov-2018 | ~Nov-2033 (15-yr BOO, reported) | Original PPA | 43.2% via MPCL + 11.66% direct |
| Petromax Refinery (Mongla) | 2,500 bpsd | Condensate | BPC | 25-Oct-2013 | No expiry | Sells all output to BPC | 90% (subsidiary) |
SPCL's plant factor rose to 77% in 9M FY26 from 55% as BPDB bought cheap gas power
Plant factor (electricity sold divided by 86 MW running all year) is the main driver of SPCL's own revenue. It averaged 59-83% between FY2019 and FY2023 under the original PPA, fell to 37% in FY2024 when the plant was idle for almost six months between contracts, recovered to 62.5% in FY2025 and reached 77% in 9M FY2026 (90% in Q1 FY2026) [s2 p.34; s1 p.35; s3 p.15; s4]. Under NENP terms BPDB calls on plants in merit order, and a gas engine selling at about BDT 7.6 per kWh is cheaper than the HFO and diesel plants it competes with, so SPCL is dispatched whenever Jalalabad Gas can supply it.
That makes gas the binding constraint. Bangladesh's domestic gas output is falling and LNG imports are costly; in winter gas is diverted to fertiliser and households. We assume 75% in FY2027F, 72% in FY2028F and 70% in FY2029F, below FY2026's 79% estimate (9M at 77% plus an assumed 85% summer quarter). Each 5 points of plant factor is about BDT 0.34 of FY2027F EPS (sensitivity grid in the valuation section).
The plant itself is a bank of gas engines built with GE International under the 2008 BPDB tender, run by 80 plant staff and 40 head-office staff [s2 p.34; s1 p.36]. Its licence capacity is 753.4 mn kWh a year (86 MW x 8,760 hours). Output was 474.1 mn kWh in FY2019, 440.5 mn in FY2020, 605.5 mn in FY2021, 619.9 mn in FY2022 and 477.1 mn in FY2023 under the original PPA, then 279.8 mn in FY2024 and 470.8 mn in FY2025 [s2 p.34; s1 p.35]. Maintenance is lumpy: spare-parts purchases were BDT 0.7 mn in FY2024, BDT 176.8 mn in FY2025 and BDT 299.5 mn in 9M FY2026 as engines were overhauled for high dispatch [s1 p.33; s3 p.16]. We hold other plant cost at BDT 480-520 mn a year while it runs.
Gas supply outlook. SPCL buys gas from Jalalabad Gas under a gas sales agreement renewed for the NENP term in July 2024, backed by bank guarantees of about BDT 830 mn in favour of the gas company [s2 p.32; s1 p.36]. Its gas cost per kWh has been stable (BDT 4.54 in FY2025, 4.52 in 9M FY2026) because the regulated tariff did not change in the period and is passed through in the fuel part [s1 p.33; s3 p.16]. The risk is volume, not price: Bangladesh's domestic gas fields are declining, LNG imports compete for foreign exchange, and the government decides who gets the gas. That is why we take plant factor down from 79% (FY26E) to 70% by FY2029F and to 50% under any renewal, rather than assume FY2026's summer peak repeats.
Data
| FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL plant factor | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
Revenue per kWh has two parts. The fuel part reimburses gas at the regulated price (BDT 2,740 mn in FY2025) and the non-fuel part pays for operation and the plant (BDT 841 mn) [1 p.33]. In 9M FY2026 SPCL earned BDT 7.63 per kWh and paid BDT 4.52 for gas, leaving BDT 3.11 to cover maintenance, wages, depreciation and profit [3 p.16]. The government's purchase committee approved the renewal at BDT 7.04 per kWh, as reported by The Business Standard [8]; the realised figure is higher because the fuel part moves with the gas tariff. Because gas is passed through, a gas-price rise moves revenue and cost together and leaves the spread unchanged; a gas volume cut is what hurts.
| BDT per kWh | FY2024A | FY2025A | 9M FY2026 | FY2027F | FY2030F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue per kWh | 8.35 | 7.61 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.17 |
| Gas cost per kWh | 4.08 | 4.54 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 |
| Spread over gas per kWh | 4.28 | 3.07 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 2.65 |
Contracts: SPCL's plant earns energy payments only, and its NENP term ends on 9-Jul-2029
Bangladesh's IPP contracts traditionally paid a capacity charge (per kW available, whether used or not) plus an energy charge. After the initial term the government has renewed old plants, if at all, on 'no electricity, no payment' terms, which pay only for energy delivered. SPCL went through this in 2024: its 15-year PPA ended in February 2024, the plant shut, and the Power Division approved a five-year NENP extension effective 9-Jul-2024, formalised by BPDB through a first amendment [s1 p.2-3; s7; s13]. The FY2024 revenue per kWh of BDT 8.35 included capacity payments for part of the year; FY2025's BDT 7.61 did not [s1 p.33, p.35].
Policy is moving against capacity payments. The interim government's national committee reviewing power contracts submitted its final report in January 2026, recommending renegotiation of high-cost agreements and cancellation where corruption is proven, as reported by The Business Standard and The Daily Star [s11; s12]. The Financial Express reported in May 2026 that most listed IPPs saw revenue fall as the government declined to renew contracts on expiry; SPCL was one of two exceptions [10]. For SPCL the direct exposure is small (its plant has no capacity payment left to cut), but Midland Power and Midland East still earn under original PPAs. A 25% cut to their contracted profit lowers our base fair value to BDT 35.7 and FY2027F EPS to BDT 5.08.
What happens in 2029 matters less than it seems. If the plant shuts on 9-Jul-2029, the BDT 1,434 mn BPDB receivable and BDT 1,175 mn gas payable we forecast for June 2029 unwind, and the plant is fully depreciated by then (net book value BDT 1,013 mn in March 2026, depreciation BDT 361 mn a year) [s3 p.2; s1 p.25]. The shutdown case gives BDT 36.5 against the base BDT 38.3: cash flows after the NENP end are 11% of our SOTP, below the 25% level at which the sector spec treats a valuation as leaning on renewal.
Receivables: BPDB owed BDT 3.1bn in March 2026 (257 days), and SPCL passes the delay on to its gas supplier
BPDB's payment delays are the main working-capital swing. SPCL's receivable from BPDB rose from BDT 94 mn in June 2024 to BDT 1,798 mn in June 2025 (183 days of revenue) and BDT 3,134 mn in March 2026, about 257 days of annualised 9M revenue; the FY2025 balance was all under six months old [s1 p.27; s3 p.2]. SPCL has managed this by paying Jalalabad Gas late too: the gas payable rose from BDT 22 mn to BDT 1,029 mn and then BDT 2,303 mn over the same dates [s1 p.32; s3 p.2]. The cost is a delay-payment charge, BDT 124.8 mn in FY2025 and BDT 40.0 mn in 9M FY2026, which is SPCL's main finance cost [s1 p.34; s3 p.17].
The FY2026 DSE disclosure shows operating cash flow of BDT 7.33 per share (FY2025: 3.49), so BPDB paid more in the fourth quarter [4]. We set June-2026 receivable days at 150, which makes the model's FY2026E operating cash flow BDT 6.80 per share, close to the disclosed figure, and let them fall to 120 days by FY2030F. A further 60-day delay changes FY2027F EPS little (it is a cash, not a profit, item) but lowers fair value to BDT 36.4.
BPDB payment history, quarter by quarter, comes from the company's own explanations to the DSE. In Q1 FY2025 operating cash flow was negative (BDT -0.15 a share) because 'outstanding sales proceeds of SPCL [were] not collected from BPDB'; by H1 FY2025 it was BDT -1.10; FY2025 ended at BDT 3.49 against 7.28 a year earlier, again blamed on BPDB [s4; s1 p.11]. The tide turned in FY2026: Q1 was still negative (BDT -1.14, this time Petromax's BPC receivable), H1 reached BDT 3.45 'due to more cash receipts from BPDB', 9M BDT 4.50 and the full year BDT 7.33 [s4; s3 p.5]. BPDB also deducts tax at source from its payments (BDT 112.7 mn in FY2025), which is why SPCL's cash tax runs ahead of its accounts [1 p.31].
Data
| Jun-24 | Jun-25 | Mar-26 | Jun-26E | Jun-27F | Jun-28F | Jun-29F | Jun-30F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPDB receivable (BDT mn) | 94.40 | 1,797.60 | 3,133.80 | 1,872.00 | 1,773.00 | 1,588.00 | 1,434.00 | 888.00 |
| Gas payable to Jalalabad Gas (BDT mn) | 21.90 | 1,028.80 | 2,302.90 | 1,478.00 | 1,259.00 | 1,209.00 | 1,175.00 | 840.00 |
Group debt sits in the refinery. Consolidated short-term loans and LC liabilities were BDT 3,779 mn in June 2025 and BDT 5,438 mn in March 2026, almost all at PRL; SPCL itself has no bank loans after repaying its term loan in FY2024 [s1 p.7, p.12; s3 p.1-2]. Foreign-exchange exposure is indirect: SPCL's tariff is in taka and its realised FX loss was BDT 7.1 mn in FY2025 [1 p.33]; PRL buys imported condensate in dollars but BPC adjusts product prices monthly [2 p.117]; Midland East's tariff currency is not disclosed in our sources (gap). We treat FX through the MEPL profit and PRL margin ranges in the scenarios rather than as a separate driver.
Industry: the government is moving away from capacity payments and HFO plants
BPDB is the single buyer of grid power in Bangladesh. Much of the installed capacity built under the 2010 Speedy Supply Act was contracted with capacity payments, which left BPDB paying for idle plants and running up arrears to private producers. The national review committee estimated 7,700-9,500 MW of idle capacity and USD 0.9-1.5bn a year of capacity payments on it, as reported by The Business Standard and The Daily Star [s11; s12]. The policy direction since 2024 is NENP renewals or no renewal at all for old plants, and a shift away from costly HFO and rental plants toward LNG, coal and renewables [10].
Within that market SPCL's own plant is on the right side: an efficient gas plant with no capacity charge, dispatched for its cost. Its risks are gas supply and the 2029 renewal decision. Midland East is on the wrong side: an HFO plant whose dispatch depends on BPDB's cash and the gas shortfall, and the kind of contract the review committee targets. Midland East's profit swung from a BDT 282 mn loss in FY2024 to BDT 461 mn in 9M FY2026 [s1 p.34; s3 p.9], which is why our MEPL range is wide (BDT 250-600 mn a year).
Midland Power and Petromax: the associate adds BDT 14.4 a share, the refinery 4.8
Midland Power (MPCL). On its own consolidated figures (summarised in SPCL's associate note) MPCL earned BDT 530.8 mn in FY2025 on revenue of BDT 10,680 mn and BDT 899.3 mn in 9M FY2026 on BDT 7,568 mn; its net assets were BDT 6,734 mn in March 2026, with BDT 10.3bn of current assets (mostly BPDB receivables) financed by BDT 10.0bn of current financial liabilities [s1 p.25-26; s3 p.9]. Split by plant, the 51 MW gas plant made BDT 437.3 mn in 9M FY2026 and Midland East BDT 461.2 mn [s3 p.9-10]. SPCL books 49% of MPCL's profit after MEPL's minorities: BDT 257.2 mn in FY2025 and BDT 413.7 mn in 9M FY2026 [s1 p.34; s3 p.3].
| BDT mn (100% of each company) | FY2024A | FY2025A | 9M FY2026 | FY2027F | FY2030F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit | 161 | 412 | 437 | 540 | 260 |
| Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit | -282 | 128 | 461 | 450 | 450 |
| SPCL share of associate profit | -43 | 257 | 414 | 459 | 322 |
| MPCL group revenue | 7,852 | 10,680 | 7,568 | — | — |
| MPCL group net assets (period end) | — | 5,972 | 6,734 | — | — |
We forecast MPCL's own plant at BDT 540 mn in FY2027F, falling to half after its PPA ends around December 2028 (an NENP renewal like SPCL's own), and Midland East at BDT 450 mn a year to November 2033. We value the stake on look-through cash: the profit share plus the run-off of its BDT 2,507 mn FY2026E book value as plants depreciate and receivables are collected, with a 20% holding discount because MPCL has not paid SPCL a dividend in the period we reviewed. That gives BDT 2,686 mn, or BDT 14.4 per share. The direct 11.66% of Midland East adds BDT 1.0.
Petromax Refinery (PRL). Revenue was BDT 8,749 mn in FY2025 and BDT 7,213 mn in 9M FY2026; gross margin fell from 8.0% in FY2024 to 5.6% in FY2025 as allocations of local condensate (fixed price, better yield) were replaced by imported cargoes, and recovered to 6.8% in 9M FY2026 [s1 p.33; s2 p.117; s3 p.16]. Finance cost (BDT 456 mn in FY2025) takes most of the gross profit [1 p.34]. We forecast a 6.5% margin, 3% revenue growth and PRL profit of BDT 160 mn in FY2027F. On a 5.4% ROE against a 17.2% cost of equity, we value the refinery at 0.32x its BDT 3,156 mn book, BDT 4.8 per SPCL share.
The refinery story. Petromax fractionates natural gas condensate into diesel, kerosene and naphtha, then hydrotreats and reforms the naphtha into petrol and octane; BPC buys everything [2 p.127]. Its market is large relative to its size: BPC put national petroleum demand for FY2025 at about 7.4 mn tonnes, 63% of it diesel, while PRL sold 113.3 mn litres [s2 p.35, p.117]. Feedstock is the issue. Local condensate allocated through Rupantarita Prakritik Gas (RPGCL) came at a fixed price with good yields; as allocations fell PRL turned to imported cargoes priced off world markets, while BPC sets product prices monthly, so margins squeezed [2 p.117]. PRL lost BDT 15.3 mn in FY2025 and declared no dividend, after paying SPCL BDT 90 mn for FY2024 [s2 p.118; s1 p.34]. Its working capital is large: BPC owed it BDT 1,833 mn and it held BDT 2,151 mn of stock in March 2026, funded by LCs and short-term loans of BDT 5.4bn [s3 p.1-2]. The value is sensitive to our 6.5% margin: 1.5 points lower takes fair value to BDT 34.1 and FY2027F EPS to BDT 5.02; the bull's 7.5% is part of its BDT 51.2.
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, PRL (petroleum products to BPC) | 8,827 | 8,749 | 9,618 | 9,906 | 10,203 |
| PRL gross margin | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Finance cost, PRL (LC and short-term loans) | 311 | 456 | 484 | 416 | 416 |
| Profit after tax, PRL | 248 | -15 | 107 | 160 | 171 |
Forecast: EPS eases from BDT 6.04 in FY26 to 5.69 in FY27F and 4.09 in FY30F as contracts roll off
Each line is built from its own driver. SPCL revenue = 86 MW x 8,760 hours x plant factor x revenue per kWh; gas cost = kWh x BDT 4.52; other plant cost (spares, lubricants, wages, maintenance) at BDT 480-520 mn a year while running; depreciation of BDT 361 mn a year until the plant is fully written down in FY2029. The finance cost is the gas-bill delay charge, at 3.5% of the average gas payable. Tax is 42.5% of plant profit after WPPF, the 9M FY2026 rate including deferred and minimum tax [3 p.4]. The associate line is 49% x (MPCL own-plant profit + 88.24% x Midland East profit). For FY2026E it is a plug: we solve it so attributable profit equals the disclosed EPS of BDT 6.04, which gives BDT 572.5 mn, implying BDT 158.8 mn in the fourth quarter against BDT 413.7 mn in the first nine months. PRL revenue grows 3% a year at a 6.5% gross margin, with interest at 11% on BDT 3.8bn of working-capital debt and tax at the higher of 0.6% of receipts and 27.5% of profit.
| Driver | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL plant factor | 62% | 79% | 75% | 72% | 70% | 50% | 9M FY26 77%; gas allocation caps it; NENP ends Jul-2029 |
| SPCL spread over gas (BDT/kWh) | 3.07 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 2.65 | 9M FY26 3.11; renewed tariff 15% lower margin |
| BPDB receivable days | 183 | 150 | 150 | 140 | 130 | 120 | Mar-26 peak 257 days; slow normalisation |
| MPCL own plant profit (BDT mn) | 412 | — | 540 | 520 | 390 | 260 | PPA to ~Dec-2028, then NENP at half |
| MEPL profit (BDT mn) | 128 | — | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | HFO dispatch; 9M FY26 461 |
| PRL gross margin | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | Imported vs local condensate |
| Payout of EPS | 79% | 66% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | FY24-26 range 52-79% |
The result: attributable profit of BDT 1,062 mn in FY2027F (EPS 5.69), BDT 1,013 mn in FY2028F and BDT 1,009 mn in FY2029F, then BDT 764 mn in FY2030F when SPCL's plant moves to a lower-dispatch renewal and Midland Power's own plant to NENP. FY2026's BDT 6.04 combined high dispatch at both gas plants with an unusually strong HFO year at Midland East; our FY2027F is 6% lower. Against the 4-quarter run-rate (BDT 6.04, all of it reported) our FY2027F EPS is lower for the same reason. Dividends follow at a 60% payout: BDT 3.42 for FY2027F against BDT 4.00 for FY2026.
Data
| 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26 | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (BDT) | 0.36 | 1.10 | 0.37 | 0.70 | 1.41 | 1.63 | 1.32 | 1.67 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.20 | 1.42 |
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL 86 MW gas plant (standalone, ex associate and group dividends) | |||||||||||
| Electricity sold to BPDB (mn kWh) | 279.8 | 470.8 | 596.7 | 565.0 | 542.4 | 527.4 | 376.7 | 376.7 | 376.7 | 376.7 | 376.7 |
| Revenue, SPCL (fuel part + non-fuel part) | 2,338 | 3,581 | 4,555 | 4,313 | 4,141 | 4,026 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,700 |
| Gas cost (Jalalabad Gas) | 1,140 | 2,138 | 2,697 | 2,554 | 2,452 | 2,384 | 1,703 | 1,703 | 1,703 | 1,703 | 1,703 |
| Other plant cost (spares, lube, wages, maintenance) | 148 | 386 | 572 | 480 | 500 | 520 | 450 | 470 | 490 | 510 | 530 |
| Depreciation, SPCL plant | 474 | 361 | 361 | 361 | 361 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of sales, SPCL | 1,762 | 2,885 | 3,630 | 3,395 | 3,313 | 3,104 | 2,153 | 2,173 | 2,193 | 2,213 | 2,233 |
| Gross profit, SPCL | 576 | 696 | 925 | 918 | 828 | 921 | 547 | 527 | 507 | 487 | 467 |
| General and admin, SPCL | 66 | 73 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 78 | 60 | 62 | 64 | 66 | 68 |
| Finance cost, SPCL (gas-bill delay charge) | 65 | 130 | 58 | 48 | 43 | 42 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Other income, SPCL (ex dividend from PRL) | 22 | 72 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Plant profit before WPPF and tax, SPCL | 467 | 565 | 840 | 841 | 751 | 842 | 492 | 476 | 454 | 432 | 410 |
| WPPF (5%), SPCL | 22 | 31 | 42 | 42 | 38 | 42 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 |
| Income tax, SPCL | 194 | 305 | 339 | 339 | 303 | 340 | 199 | 192 | 183 | 174 | 165 |
| Profit after tax, SPCL plant | 251 | 229 | 459 | 459 | 410 | 460 | 269 | 260 | 248 | 236 | 224 |
| Petromax Refinery Ltd (PRL, 90% subsidiary; sole customer BPC) | |||||||||||
| Revenue, PRL (petroleum products to BPC) | 8,827 | 8,749 | 9,618 | 9,906 | 10,203 | 10,510 | 10,825 | 11,150 | 11,484 | 11,829 | 12,183 |
| Cost of sales, PRL (condensate feed) | 8,121 | 8,262 | 8,969 | 9,262 | 9,540 | 9,826 | 10,121 | 10,425 | 10,738 | 11,060 | 11,391 |
| Gross profit, PRL | 706 | 487 | 649 | 644 | 663 | 683 | 704 | 725 | 746 | 769 | 792 |
| General and admin, PRL | 100 | 97 | 73 | 77 | 81 | 85 | 89 | 93 | 98 | 103 | 108 |
| Finance cost, PRL (LC and short-term loans) | 311 | 456 | 484 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 |
| Other income, PRL | 52 | 66 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 |
| Profit before WPPF and tax, PRL | 346 | 1 | 173 | 232 | 248 | 264 | 280 | 297 | 314 | 331 | 349 |
| WPPF, PRL | 16 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| Income tax, PRL (higher of 0.6% minimum tax on receipts and 27.5%) | 82 | 16 | 58 | 61 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 78 | 82 | 87 | 91 |
| Profit after tax, PRL | 248 | -15 | 107 | 160 | 171 | 182 | 193 | 204 | 216 | 228 | 241 |
| Associate: Midland Power Co (49%) incl. 88.24% of Midland East Power | |||||||||||
| Share of profit of associate (MPCL) | -43 | 257 | 573 | 459 | 449 | 386 | 322 | 322 | 322 | 322 | 142 |
| Consolidated | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 11,164 | 12,330 | 14,173 | 14,220 | 14,344 | 14,535 | 13,524 | 13,849 | 14,184 | 14,528 | 14,883 |
| Net profit after tax | 456 | 471 | 1,138 | 1,078 | 1,030 | 1,027 | 784 | 786 | 786 | 786 | 606 |
| Non-controlling interest (10% of PRL) | 25 | -2 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Profit attributable to owners | 431 | 473 | 1,127 | 1,062 | 1,013 | 1,009 | 764 | 766 | 764 | 763 | 582 |
| EPS (BDT) | 2.31 | 2.53 | 6.04 | 5.69 | 5.43 | 5.41 | 4.09 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.09 | 3.12 |
| Dividend per share declared for the year (BDT) | 1.20 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.42 | 3.26 | 3.24 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.45 | 1.87 |
| EBITDA, SPCL plant | 984 | 984 | 1,220 | 1,209 | 1,115 | 1,044 | 487 | 465 | 443 | 421 | 399 |
From the Income statement tab of the model.
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE, SPCL plant | 1,644 | 1,284 | 923 | 562 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PPE, right-of-use and CWIP, PRL and other | 2,255 | 2,107 | 1,857 | 1,607 | 1,357 | 1,157 | 1,007 | 907 | 807 | 757 | 707 |
| Investment in associate (MPCL, equity method) | 1,677 | 1,934 | 2,507 | 2,966 | 3,415 | 3,801 | 4,123 | 4,445 | 4,767 | 5,089 | 5,230 |
| Other investments and FVTPL assets | 1,374 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 |
| Receivable from BPDB (SPCL) | 94 | 1,798 | 1,872 | 1,773 | 1,588 | 1,434 | 888 | 888 | 888 | 888 | 888 |
| Receivable from BPC (PRL) | 1,612 | 1,002 | 1,186 | 1,357 | 1,398 | 1,440 | 1,483 | 1,527 | 1,573 | 1,620 | 1,669 |
| Inventories | 1,596 | 1,999 | 2,089 | 2,284 | 2,352 | 2,423 | 2,496 | 2,571 | 2,648 | 2,727 | 2,809 |
| Advances, deposits, other receivables, goods in transit | 1,425 | 1,673 | 1,731 | 1,981 | 2,041 | 2,102 | 2,165 | 2,230 | 2,297 | 2,366 | 2,437 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 143 | 359 | 1,205 | 953 | 1,473 | 1,855 | 1,892 | 1,814 | 1,728 | 1,588 | 1,443 |
| Total assets | 11,820 | 13,063 | 14,276 | 14,390 | 14,732 | 15,118 | 14,960 | 15,288 | 15,614 | 15,942 | 16,090 |
| Short-term loans and LC liabilities | 3,953 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 |
| Trade payable to Jalalabad Gas (SPCL) | 22 | 1,029 | 1,478 | 1,259 | 1,209 | 1,175 | 840 | 840 | 840 | 840 | 840 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 239 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 |
| Other liabilities (sundry, lease, expenses, other payables) | 213 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 |
| Total liabilities | 4,427 | 5,432 | 5,881 | 5,663 | 5,613 | 5,579 | 5,243 | 5,243 | 5,243 | 5,243 | 5,243 |
| Equity attributable to owners | 7,076 | 7,325 | 8,079 | 8,395 | 8,771 | 9,172 | 9,331 | 9,638 | 9,943 | 10,247 | 10,371 |
| Non-controlling interests | 316 | 305 | 316 | 332 | 349 | 367 | 386 | 407 | 428 | 451 | 475 |
| Total liabilities and equity | 11,820 | 13,063 | 14,276 | 14,390 | 14,732 | 15,118 | 14,960 | 15,288 | 15,614 | 15,942 | 16,090 |
| Balance check (assets - liabilities - equity) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NAV per share, owners (BDT) | 37.92 | 39.25 | 43.29 | 44.98 | 47.00 | 49.14 | 50.00 | 51.64 | 53.28 | 54.91 | 55.57 |
From the Balance sheet tab of the model.
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit after tax | — | — | 1,138 | 1,078 | 1,030 | 1,027 | 784 | 786 | 786 | 786 | 606 |
| Depreciation (SPCL + PRL) | — | — | 661 | 661 | 661 | 451 | 200 | 150 | 150 | 100 | 100 |
| Less share of associate profit (non-cash) | — | — | -573 | -459 | -449 | -386 | -322 | -322 | -322 | -322 | -142 |
| Change in BPDB receivable | — | — | -74 | 99 | 184 | 154 | 546 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change in BPC receivable | — | — | -184 | -171 | -41 | -42 | -43 | -44 | -46 | -47 | -49 |
| Change in inventories | — | — | -90 | -195 | -69 | -71 | -73 | -75 | -77 | -79 | -82 |
| Change in advances and other current assets | — | — | -58 | -250 | -59 | -61 | -63 | -65 | -67 | -69 | -71 |
| Change in gas payable | — | — | 449 | -218 | -50 | -34 | -336 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change in other liabilities and deferred tax | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from operations | 1,359 | 648 | 1,269 | 545 | 1,207 | 1,039 | 693 | 430 | 424 | 368 | 363 |
| Capex | — | — | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 |
| Change in other investments | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from investing | -889 | 506 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 |
| Change in short-term loans and LC liabilities | — | — | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends paid to owners (prior year's declaration) | — | — | -373 | -747 | -637 | -608 | -605 | -459 | -459 | -459 | -458 |
| Cash flow from financing | -671 | -938 | -373 | -747 | -637 | -608 | -605 | -459 | -459 | -459 | -458 |
| Net change in cash | -201 | 216 | 846 | -252 | 520 | 381 | 38 | -79 | -85 | -140 | -145 |
| Closing cash | 143 | 359 | 1,205 | 953 | 1,473 | 1,855 | 1,892 | 1,814 | 1,728 | 1,588 | 1,443 |
| Operating cash flow per share (BDT) | 7.28 | 3.47 | 6.80 | 2.92 | 6.47 | 5.57 | 3.71 | 2.30 | 2.27 | 1.97 | 1.94 |
From the Cash flow tab of the model.
Model update
Latest statements used: 9M FY2026 (to 31-Mar-2026) plus the DSE-disclosed FY2026 EPS, NAV and dividend. The model will be updated when the audited FY2026 annual report is filed.
Valuation: plant SOTP and P/E give BDT 18.5-51.2; base 38.3 = 6.7x FY27F EPS
Fair value range BDT 18.5-51.2 per share, base BDT 38.3, probability-weighted BDT 34.9 (30% bear, 50% base, 20% bull). The base implies 6.7x FY2027F EPS, 0.88x FY2026 NAV of BDT 43.29 and a 8.9% yield on our FY2027F dividend. Cash flows after SPCL's NENP end are 11% of the SOTP. Uncertainty: High.
Method. A sum of the parts is used because the parts have different lives and economics: a plant to July 2029 (plus a possible renewal), two associate plants to about 2028 and 2033 (our reading of their terms, see the registry), and a refinery with no contract end. Each contracted part is valued as cash flow to equity to its contract end at a 17.2% cost of equity (cost of equity table below): SPCL's plant as profit plus depreciation plus the working capital released when it stops; Midland as its profit share plus the run-off of its book value, less a 20% holding discount; the refinery on its book value times ROE over cost of equity. The SOTP gives BDT 37.7. We blend it 70/30 with a 7x P/E on FY2027F EPS (BDT 39.8), the top of the 5.6-7.0x range of operating DSE IPPs [5]. A dividend discount model gives only BDT 13.7, because it ignores the book value left in 2034; we show it but do not weight it.
Two departures from the F23 sector method, stated so they can be judged. First, our base assumes a second NENP renewal for SPCL's plant in 2029 (F23's default is one NENP year, then shutdown); we depart because SPCL is already on NENP terms and is dispatched at 77% as cheap gas power. The F23 default is close to our shutdown shock, BDT 36.5. Second, we weight SOTP 70% and P/E 30% instead of F23's SOTP 50% / DDM 30% / P/E 20%; on F23 weights the base would be BDT 30.9, because the DDM omits the book value still on the balance sheet in 2034. The direct 11.66% Midland East stake is valued on its profit share only, with no book run-off, because Midland East's own book equity is not disclosed in our sources.
| Part | BDT mn | BDT per share | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL 86 MW plant | 2,746.4 | 14.7 | FCFE to Jul-2029 + 5-yr NENP renewal at 50% plant factor |
| of which after the NENP end | 758.0 | 4.1 | FY2030F-FY2034F |
| Associate MPCL (49%) | 2,686.2 | 14.4 | Profit share + book run-off, 20% holding discount |
| Direct 11.66% of Midland East Power | 192.2 | 1.0 | Profit share to Nov-2033, 20% discount |
| Petromax Refinery (90%) | 895.4 | 4.8 | Book 3,156 x ROE/CoE = 0.32x |
| Parent cash, T-bills, MTDRs | 615.4 | 3.3 | Mar-26 standalone |
| Tax disputes x 50% | -108.8 | -0.6 | AY2021-24 demands under appeal |
| Equity value (SOTP) | 7,026.9 | 37.7 | — |
| P/E leg: 7.0x FY2027F EPS | — | 39.8 | Peer range 5.6-7.0x |
| Fair value, base (70% SOTP / 30% P/E) | — | 38.3 | — |
| Method | BDT per share (base) | Our weight | F23 default weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plant SOTP to contract ends | 37.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | Finite contracts; parts differ in life and economics |
| P/E 7.0x FY2027F EPS | 39.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | How the DSE prices IPPs (peers 5.6-7.0x) |
| DDM to FY2034 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | Ignores book left in 2034; same renewal call as SOTP |
| Blended fair value | 38.3 | — | — | F23 weights would give 30.9 |
Data
| SPCL plant | Midland stake | Direct MEPL | Petromax | Parent cash | Tax disputes | SOTP | Blend with P/E | Fair value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDT per share | 14.70 | 14.40 | 1.00 | 4.80 | 3.30 | -0.60 | 37.70 | 0.70 | 38.30 |
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free: 10-yr T-bond cut-off (25-Oct-2026) | 9.3% | Bangladesh Bank [s6] |
| Beta, raw (2 yrs weekly vs DSEX, R2 0.16) | 1.19 | chart_bars [s5] |
| Beta, Blume-adjusted (used) | 1.13 | 0.67 x raw + 0.33 |
| Equity risk premium | 7.0% | BD convention 7-7.5% |
| Cost of equity | 17.2% | = Rf + beta x ERP |
| Grid (row input x column input) | Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 (base) | Col 4 | Col 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid A: fair value (BDT/share); rows = cost of equity, columns = SPCL plant factor after Jul-2029 (0 = shut) | |||||
| Cost of equity \ post-2029 plant factor | 0.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 65.0% |
| Ke 15.2% | 37.6 | 37.7 | 38.7 | 39.6 | 41.0 |
| Ke 16.2% | 37.0 | 37.1 | 38.0 | 38.9 | 40.3 |
| Ke 17.2% | 36.5 | 36.6 | 37.4 | 38.3 | 39.6 |
| Ke 18.2% | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 37.7 | 39.0 |
| Ke 19.2% | 35.5 | 35.6 | 36.4 | 37.2 | 38.4 |
| Grid B: FY2027F EPS (BDT); rows = SPCL FY27 plant factor, columns = MEPL profit (HFO dispatch, BDT/USD) | |||||
| Plant factor \ MEPL profit (BDT mn) | 250 | 350 | 450 | 550 | 650 |
| PF 65% | 4.55 | 4.78 | 5.01 | 5.25 | 5.48 |
| PF 70% | 4.89 | 5.12 | 5.35 | 5.59 | 5.82 |
| PF 75% | 5.23 | 5.46 | 5.69 | 5.92 | 6.16 |
| PF 80% | 5.57 | 5.80 | 6.03 | 6.26 | 6.49 |
| PF 85% | 5.91 | 6.14 | 6.37 | 6.60 | 6.83 |
| Risk shocks: one input changed, base otherwise (fair value, BDT/share) | |||||
| Contract review: -25% on MPCL and MEPL contracted profit | 35.72 | 5.08 | — | — | — |
| BPDB pays 60 days slower (receivable days +60) | 36.35 | 5.69 | — | — | — |
| Gas curtailment: SPCL plant factor -10pp FY27-FY29 | 35.78 | 5.01 | — | — | — |
| PRL gross margin -1.5pp (condensate cost) | 34.10 | 5.02 | — | — | — |
| No second renewal: SPCL shut from Jul-2029 | 36.46 | 5.69 | — | — | — |
From the Sensitivity tab of the model.
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL after Jul-2029 | Shut, salvage 100 | NENP renewal, 50% PF, margin -15% | NENP renewal, 65% PF, margin -10% |
| SPCL plant factor FY27-29 | 62% / 55% / 50% | 75% / 72% / 70% | 80% / 78% / 75% |
| Contract-review haircut on SPCL margin | 10% from FY27 | none before 2029 | none before 2029 |
| BPDB receivable days | 210 | 150 falling to 120 | 110 falling to 90 |
| MPCL own plant after Dec-2028 | Shut | NENP at 50% of profit | NENP at 75% |
| MEPL profit a year (BDT mn) | 250 | 450 | 600 |
| PRL gross margin | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% |
| Holding discount on MPCL / MEPL | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| P/E multiple on FY2027F EPS (30% leg) | 6.0x | 7.0x | 8.0x |
| FY2027F EPS (BDT) | 3.09 | 5.69 | 6.81 |
| Fair value (BDT per share) | 18.5 | 38.3 | 51.2 |
| Probability | 30% | 50% | 20% |
Reverse check. The market price of BDT 55.9 on 29-Oct-2026 is above our bull case: at 9.3x FY2026 EPS and 1.29x NAV it prices FY2026 earnings as if they were durable beyond the contract ends. Getting to that price on our model needs roughly bull-case dispatch and Midland East profit plus a lower cost of equity; the grid shows that even a 15.2% cost of equity with a 65% post-2029 plant factor gives BDT 41.0 on base drivers.
| DSE IPP | Price (BDT) | P/E TTM | P/B | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL | 55.90 | 9.25 | 1.29 | 0.07 |
| UPGDCL | 112.20 | 7.00 | 1.35 | 0.06 |
| DOREENPWR | 32.00 | 6.37 | 0.56 | 0.05 |
| BPPL | 19.50 | 5.59 | 0.43 | 0.01 |
| SUMITPOWER | 15.70 | 39.78 | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| KPCL | 11.00 | 12.36 | 0.56 | 0.04 |
| BDT mn unless stated | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounting (valuation date 30-Oct-2026, mid-year cash flows) | ||||||||
| Years from valuation date | 0.17 | 1.17 | 2.17 | 3.17 | 4.17 | 5.17 | 6.17 | 7.17 |
| Discount factor at cost of equity | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| 1. SPCL 86 MW plant: free cash flow to equity | ||||||||
| Plant PAT + depreciation - change in BPDB receivable + change in gas payable - capex + salvage | 701 | 905 | 781 | 479 | 260 | 248 | 236 | 424 |
| PV, SPCL plant | 682 | 752 | 554 | 290 | 134 | 109 | 89 | 136 |
| 2. Associate MPCL (49%): look-through earnings | ||||||||
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bear | 35.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: base | 20.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bull | 10.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows | 20.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bear | 6.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: base | 7.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bull | 8.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS | 7.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Associate profit share + run-off of its book value, after holding discount | 654 | 646 | 595 | 544 | 544 | 544 | 544 | 113 |
| PV, associate | 637 | 537 | 422 | 329 | 281 | 240 | 205 | 36 |
| 3. Direct 11.66% of Midland East Power (carried at cost 11.7) | ||||||||
| 11.66% x MEPL profit, after holding discount | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 17 |
| PV, direct MEPL stake | 41 | 35 | 30 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 5 |
| Sum of the parts (value in first column) | ||||||||
| SPCL plant (PV of FCFE) | 2,746 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| of which after the NENP end (FY2030F onward) | 758 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Associate MPCL (49%) | 2,686 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Direct MEPL stake (11.66%) | 192 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL book equity, FY2026E (= NCI / 10%) | 3,156 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL ROE, average FY2027F-FY2029F | 5.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL justified P/B = ROE / cost of equity (0-1x) | 0.3x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL (90% x book x justified P/B) | 895 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Parent cash, T-bills and MTDRs (Mar-26, standalone) | 615 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tax disputes x 50% probability | -109 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value (BDT mn) | 7,027 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SOTP per share (BDT) | 37.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check per share (multiple x FY2027F EPS) | 39.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value (70% SOTP + 30% P/E), BDT per share | 38.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share of SOTP from SPCL cash flows after the NENP end | 10.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E on FY2027F EPS | 6.7x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied P/B on FY2026E NAV (43.29) | 0.9x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied dividend yield on FY2027F DPS | 8.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM context: PV of DPS FY2027F-FY2034F (BDT per share) | 13.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario results (recalculated with the selector at 1, 2, 3) | ||||||||
| Fair value, bear (BDT per share) | 18.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value, base (BDT per share) | 38.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value, bull (BDT per share) | 51.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Probability-weighted (30% bear / 50% base / 20% bull) | 34.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
From the Valuation tab of the model.
Risks: a 1.5pp refinery margin cut is the biggest single hit (-BDT 4.2 a share)
Each risk below is a change to one model input, with everything else at base; the bear case combines several of them. Gas supply moves SPCL's kWh; the contract review moves the associate's profit; BPDB payment timing moves receivables and the gas-bill delay charge; condensate prices move PRL's gross margin; the 2029 decision moves SPCL's revenue after FY2029.
| Risk | Line it moves | FY2027F EPS (BDT) | Fair value (BDT/share) | Change vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas curtailment at Fatepur | SPCL kWh: plant factor -10pp FY27-29 | 5.01 | 35.78 | -2.52 |
| Contract review / tariff haircut on Midland PPAs | Associate profit: MPCL and MEPL contracted profit -25% | 5.08 | 35.72 | -2.58 |
| BPDB pays later | BPDB receivable +60 days; gas payable and delay charges | 5.69 | 36.35 | -1.95 |
| Condensate cost squeeze at PRL | PRL gross margin -1.5pp | 5.02 | 34.10 | -4.20 |
| No second NENP renewal in 2029 | SPCL revenue to zero from FY30; salvage 200 | 5.69 | 36.46 | -1.84 |
Other risks not in the numbers: tax disputes for AY2021-24 (BDT 217.5 mn demanded, under appeal; we deduct half) [1 p.36]; bank guarantees of BDT 925.8 mn in favour of BPDB, customs and Jalalabad Gas, which become liabilities only on default [s1 p.35-36]; the 2024 auditor change (ACNABIN to G. Kibria & Co.) and an unqualified FY2025 opinion with an 'other matter' paragraph [s1 p.4; s4]; and concentration: BPDB and BPC are effectively the only customers. Positive risks: a second renewal on better terms, or Midland paying dividends that close the holding discount.
What to watch: the FY26 annual report, winter dispatch and the 9-Jul-2029 NENP end
| Date | Event | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| 29-Nov-2026 | Record date, 40% cash dividend (BDT 4.00) | BDT 746.5 mn cash out; parent cash Mar-26 BDT 402 mn + BPDB collections |
| Nov-Dec 2026 | Audited FY2026 statements and annual report | Jun-26 BPDB receivable, gas payable, MPCL/MEPL split, PRL profit |
| Jan-2027 | Q2 FY2027 results; AGM 21-Jan-2027 | Winter plant factor (gas diverted to fertiliser/households) |
| ~Dec-2028 | Midland Power 51 MW PPA end (our reading) | Renewal on NENP or shutdown: 49% of its profit |
| 9-Jul-2029 | SPCL NENP renewal ends | Second renewal request; base case assumes one at 50% dispatch |
| ~Nov-2033 | Midland East 150 MW PPA end (reported 15-yr BOO) | Largest remaining contracted earnings |
- Plant factor each quarter (DSE results notes give it): below 65% in a summer quarter would point to the bear case.
- BPDB receivable in the June-2026 and December-2026 balance sheets: above BDT 3bn again means cash is not following profit.
- Associate profit split between MPCL's own plant and Midland East; any MPCL dividend to SPCL.
- Any Power Division statement on renewing 2008-2013 gas IPPs after their NENP terms.
- PRL gross margin and the share of local versus imported condensate.
The model
Assumptions
| Driver | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario selector (1 bear, 2 base, 3 bull) | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cost of equity adjustment (sensitivity grids only) | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shares outstanding (mn) | 186.63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DSE-disclosed FY2026 attributable profit (BDT mn) = EPS 6.04 x shares | 1,127.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SPCL installed capacity (MW) | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario drivers (bear / base / bull rows; the active row feeds the model) | |||||||||||
| SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h): bear | — | — | — | 62.0% | 55.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h): base | — | — | — | 75.0% | 72.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h): bull | — | — | — | 80.0% | 78.0% | 75.0% | 65.0% | 65.0% | 65.0% | 65.0% | 65.0% |
| SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h) | 37.1% | 62.5% | 79.2% | 75.0% | 72.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost): bear | — | — | — | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost): base | — | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost): bull | — | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost) | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end): bear | — | — | — | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end): base | — | — | — | 150 | 140 | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end): bull | — | — | — | 110 | 100 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end) | 15 | 183 | 150 | 150 | 140 | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn): bear | — | — | — | 480 | 450 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn): base | — | — | — | 540 | 520 | 390 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 130 |
| MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn): bull | — | — | — | 580 | 560 | 490 | 420 | 420 | 420 | 420 | 210 |
| MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn) | 161 | 412 | — | 540 | 520 | 390 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 130 |
| Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn): bear | — | — | — | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 100 |
| Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn): base | — | — | — | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 180 |
| Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn): bull | — | — | — | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 240 |
| Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn) | -282 | 128 | — | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 180 |
| PRL gross margin: bear | — | — | — | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| PRL gross margin: base | — | — | — | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| PRL gross margin: bull | — | — | — | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| PRL gross margin | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn): bear | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn): base | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 |
| SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn): bull | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 |
| SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn) | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 |
| Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year: bear | — | — | — | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year: base | — | — | — | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year: bull | — | — | — | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year | — | — | — | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Other drivers (all scenarios) | |||||||||||
| SPCL revenue per kWh (BDT) | — | — | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 |
| SPCL gas cost per kWh (BDT) | — | — | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 4.52 |
| SPCL other plant cost if running (BDT mn) | — | — | 572 | 480 | 500 | 520 | 450 | 470 | 490 | 510 | 530 |
| SPCL general and admin (BDT mn) | — | — | 66 | 70 | 74 | 78 | 60 | 62 | 64 | 66 | 68 |
| SPCL delay charge rate on gas payable | — | — | — | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| SPCL other income ex group dividends (BDT mn) | — | — | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| SPCL tax rate on plant profit after WPPF | — | — | 42.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% |
| SPCL gas payable days (Jalalabad Gas) | — | — | 200 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
| SPCL capex (BDT mn) | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PRL revenue growth | — | — | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| PRL general and admin (BDT mn) | — | — | 73 | 77 | 81 | 85 | 89 | 93 | 98 | 103 | 108 |
| PRL short-term loans + LC liabilities (year end, BDT mn) | — | — | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 |
| PRL interest rate on debt | — | — | — | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| PRL other income (BDT mn) | — | — | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 |
| PRL receivable days on BPC | — | — | 45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Inventory days (on PRL cost of sales) | — | — | 85 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Advances, deposits and other current assets / PRL revenue | — | — | 18.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| PRL depreciation (BDT mn, balance sheet only) | — | — | 300 | 300 | 300 | 250 | 200 | 150 | 150 | 100 | 100 |
| PRL capex (BDT mn) | — | — | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Dividend payout (declared DPS / attributable EPS) | — | — | — | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
Income statement
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL 86 MW gas plant (standalone, ex associate and group dividends) | |||||||||||
| Electricity sold to BPDB (mn kWh) | 279.8 | 470.8 | 596.7 | 565.0 | 542.4 | 527.4 | 376.7 | 376.7 | 376.7 | 376.7 | 376.7 |
| Revenue, SPCL (fuel part + non-fuel part) | 2,338 | 3,581 | 4,555 | 4,313 | 4,141 | 4,026 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,700 |
| Gas cost (Jalalabad Gas) | 1,140 | 2,138 | 2,697 | 2,554 | 2,452 | 2,384 | 1,703 | 1,703 | 1,703 | 1,703 | 1,703 |
| Other plant cost (spares, lube, wages, maintenance) | 148 | 386 | 572 | 480 | 500 | 520 | 450 | 470 | 490 | 510 | 530 |
| Depreciation, SPCL plant | 474 | 361 | 361 | 361 | 361 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of sales, SPCL | 1,762 | 2,885 | 3,630 | 3,395 | 3,313 | 3,104 | 2,153 | 2,173 | 2,193 | 2,213 | 2,233 |
| Gross profit, SPCL | 576 | 696 | 925 | 918 | 828 | 921 | 547 | 527 | 507 | 487 | 467 |
| General and admin, SPCL | 66 | 73 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 78 | 60 | 62 | 64 | 66 | 68 |
| Finance cost, SPCL (gas-bill delay charge) | 65 | 130 | 58 | 48 | 43 | 42 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Other income, SPCL (ex dividend from PRL) | 22 | 72 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Plant profit before WPPF and tax, SPCL | 467 | 565 | 840 | 841 | 751 | 842 | 492 | 476 | 454 | 432 | 410 |
| WPPF (5%), SPCL | 22 | 31 | 42 | 42 | 38 | 42 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 20 |
| Income tax, SPCL | 194 | 305 | 339 | 339 | 303 | 340 | 199 | 192 | 183 | 174 | 165 |
| Profit after tax, SPCL plant | 251 | 229 | 459 | 459 | 410 | 460 | 269 | 260 | 248 | 236 | 224 |
| Petromax Refinery Ltd (PRL, 90% subsidiary; sole customer BPC) | |||||||||||
| Revenue, PRL (petroleum products to BPC) | 8,827 | 8,749 | 9,618 | 9,906 | 10,203 | 10,510 | 10,825 | 11,150 | 11,484 | 11,829 | 12,183 |
| Cost of sales, PRL (condensate feed) | 8,121 | 8,262 | 8,969 | 9,262 | 9,540 | 9,826 | 10,121 | 10,425 | 10,738 | 11,060 | 11,391 |
| Gross profit, PRL | 706 | 487 | 649 | 644 | 663 | 683 | 704 | 725 | 746 | 769 | 792 |
| General and admin, PRL | 100 | 97 | 73 | 77 | 81 | 85 | 89 | 93 | 98 | 103 | 108 |
| Finance cost, PRL (LC and short-term loans) | 311 | 456 | 484 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 | 416 |
| Other income, PRL | 52 | 66 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 | 81 |
| Profit before WPPF and tax, PRL | 346 | 1 | 173 | 232 | 248 | 264 | 280 | 297 | 314 | 331 | 349 |
| WPPF, PRL | 16 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| Income tax, PRL (higher of 0.6% minimum tax on receipts and 27.5%) | 82 | 16 | 58 | 61 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 78 | 82 | 87 | 91 |
| Profit after tax, PRL | 248 | -15 | 107 | 160 | 171 | 182 | 193 | 204 | 216 | 228 | 241 |
| Associate: Midland Power Co (49%) incl. 88.24% of Midland East Power | |||||||||||
| Share of profit of associate (MPCL) | -43 | 257 | 573 | 459 | 449 | 386 | 322 | 322 | 322 | 322 | 142 |
| Consolidated | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 11,164 | 12,330 | 14,173 | 14,220 | 14,344 | 14,535 | 13,524 | 13,849 | 14,184 | 14,528 | 14,883 |
| Net profit after tax | 456 | 471 | 1,138 | 1,078 | 1,030 | 1,027 | 784 | 786 | 786 | 786 | 606 |
| Non-controlling interest (10% of PRL) | 25 | -2 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Profit attributable to owners | 431 | 473 | 1,127 | 1,062 | 1,013 | 1,009 | 764 | 766 | 764 | 763 | 582 |
| EPS (BDT) | 2.31 | 2.53 | 6.04 | 5.69 | 5.43 | 5.41 | 4.09 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.09 | 3.12 |
| Dividend per share declared for the year (BDT) | 1.20 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.42 | 3.26 | 3.24 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.45 | 1.87 |
| EBITDA, SPCL plant | 984 | 984 | 1,220 | 1,209 | 1,115 | 1,044 | 487 | 465 | 443 | 421 | 399 |
Balance sheet
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE, SPCL plant | 1,644 | 1,284 | 923 | 562 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PPE, right-of-use and CWIP, PRL and other | 2,255 | 2,107 | 1,857 | 1,607 | 1,357 | 1,157 | 1,007 | 907 | 807 | 757 | 707 |
| Investment in associate (MPCL, equity method) | 1,677 | 1,934 | 2,507 | 2,966 | 3,415 | 3,801 | 4,123 | 4,445 | 4,767 | 5,089 | 5,230 |
| Other investments and FVTPL assets | 1,374 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 | 907 |
| Receivable from BPDB (SPCL) | 94 | 1,798 | 1,872 | 1,773 | 1,588 | 1,434 | 888 | 888 | 888 | 888 | 888 |
| Receivable from BPC (PRL) | 1,612 | 1,002 | 1,186 | 1,357 | 1,398 | 1,440 | 1,483 | 1,527 | 1,573 | 1,620 | 1,669 |
| Inventories | 1,596 | 1,999 | 2,089 | 2,284 | 2,352 | 2,423 | 2,496 | 2,571 | 2,648 | 2,727 | 2,809 |
| Advances, deposits, other receivables, goods in transit | 1,425 | 1,673 | 1,731 | 1,981 | 2,041 | 2,102 | 2,165 | 2,230 | 2,297 | 2,366 | 2,437 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 143 | 359 | 1,205 | 953 | 1,473 | 1,855 | 1,892 | 1,814 | 1,728 | 1,588 | 1,443 |
| Total assets | 11,820 | 13,063 | 14,276 | 14,390 | 14,732 | 15,118 | 14,960 | 15,288 | 15,614 | 15,942 | 16,090 |
| Short-term loans and LC liabilities | 3,953 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 | 3,779 |
| Trade payable to Jalalabad Gas (SPCL) | 22 | 1,029 | 1,478 | 1,259 | 1,209 | 1,175 | 840 | 840 | 840 | 840 | 840 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 239 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 | 297 |
| Other liabilities (sundry, lease, expenses, other payables) | 213 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 | 327 |
| Total liabilities | 4,427 | 5,432 | 5,881 | 5,663 | 5,613 | 5,579 | 5,243 | 5,243 | 5,243 | 5,243 | 5,243 |
| Equity attributable to owners | 7,076 | 7,325 | 8,079 | 8,395 | 8,771 | 9,172 | 9,331 | 9,638 | 9,943 | 10,247 | 10,371 |
| Non-controlling interests | 316 | 305 | 316 | 332 | 349 | 367 | 386 | 407 | 428 | 451 | 475 |
| Total liabilities and equity | 11,820 | 13,063 | 14,276 | 14,390 | 14,732 | 15,118 | 14,960 | 15,288 | 15,614 | 15,942 | 16,090 |
| Balance check (assets - liabilities - equity) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NAV per share, owners (BDT) | 37.92 | 39.25 | 43.29 | 44.98 | 47.00 | 49.14 | 50.00 | 51.64 | 53.28 | 54.91 | 55.57 |
Cash flow
| BDT mn | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit after tax | — | — | 1,138 | 1,078 | 1,030 | 1,027 | 784 | 786 | 786 | 786 | 606 |
| Depreciation (SPCL + PRL) | — | — | 661 | 661 | 661 | 451 | 200 | 150 | 150 | 100 | 100 |
| Less share of associate profit (non-cash) | — | — | -573 | -459 | -449 | -386 | -322 | -322 | -322 | -322 | -142 |
| Change in BPDB receivable | — | — | -74 | 99 | 184 | 154 | 546 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change in BPC receivable | — | — | -184 | -171 | -41 | -42 | -43 | -44 | -46 | -47 | -49 |
| Change in inventories | — | — | -90 | -195 | -69 | -71 | -73 | -75 | -77 | -79 | -82 |
| Change in advances and other current assets | — | — | -58 | -250 | -59 | -61 | -63 | -65 | -67 | -69 | -71 |
| Change in gas payable | — | — | 449 | -218 | -50 | -34 | -336 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Change in other liabilities and deferred tax | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from operations | 1,359 | 648 | 1,269 | 545 | 1,207 | 1,039 | 693 | 430 | 424 | 368 | 363 |
| Capex | — | — | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 |
| Change in other investments | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow from investing | -889 | 506 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 |
| Change in short-term loans and LC liabilities | — | — | -0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends paid to owners (prior year's declaration) | — | — | -373 | -747 | -637 | -608 | -605 | -459 | -459 | -459 | -458 |
| Cash flow from financing | -671 | -938 | -373 | -747 | -637 | -608 | -605 | -459 | -459 | -459 | -458 |
| Net change in cash | -201 | 216 | 846 | -252 | 520 | 381 | 38 | -79 | -85 | -140 | -145 |
| Closing cash | 143 | 359 | 1,205 | 953 | 1,473 | 1,855 | 1,892 | 1,814 | 1,728 | 1,588 | 1,443 |
| Operating cash flow per share (BDT) | 7.28 | 3.47 | 6.80 | 2.92 | 6.47 | 5.57 | 3.71 | 2.30 | 2.27 | 1.97 | 1.94 |
Ratios
| Ratio | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL plant factor | 37.1% | 62.5% | 79.2% | 75.0% | 72.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| SPCL revenue per kWh (BDT) | 8.35 | 7.61 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 |
| SPCL spread over gas per kWh (BDT) | 4.28 | 3.07 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 |
| BPDB receivable days | 15 | 183 | 150 | 150 | 140 | 130 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Associate share of attributable profit | -10.0% | 54.4% | 50.8% | 43.2% | 44.4% | 38.2% | 42.1% | 42.0% | 42.1% | 42.2% | 24.3% |
| NCI leakage (NCI / consolidated profit) | 5.4% | -0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| ROE (attributable / average owners' equity) | — | 6.6% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% |
| Payout (DPS / EPS) | 51.9% | 79.1% | 66.2% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Net debt / owners' equity | 53.8% | 46.7% | 31.9% | 33.7% | 26.3% | 21.0% | 20.2% | 20.4% | 20.6% | 21.4% | 22.5% |
| P/E at BDT 55.9 | 24.2x | 22.1x | 9.3x | 9.8x | 10.3x | 10.3x | 13.7x | 13.6x | 13.6x | 13.7x | 17.9x |
| P/B at BDT 55.9 | 1.5x | 1.4x | 1.3x | 1.2x | 1.2x | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Dividend yield at BDT 55.9 | 2.1% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% |
Quarterly
| EPS, BDT (consolidated, attributable) | 1Q25A | 2Q25A | 3Q25A | 4Q25A | 1Q26A | 2Q26A | 3Q26A | 4Q26A | 1Q27F | 2Q27F | 3Q27F | 4Q27F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (BDT) | 0.36 | 1.10 | 0.37 | 0.70 | 1.41 | 1.63 | 1.32 | 1.67 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.20 | 1.42 |
| SPCL plant factor (cumulative period) | 54.0% | — | 55.0% | — | 90.0% | — | 77.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
WACC
| Cost of equity input | Value |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate: 10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-2026 | 9.3% |
| Beta, raw (104 weekly returns vs DSEX) | 1.19 |
| Beta, Blume-adjusted (0.67 x raw + 0.33) | 1.13 |
| Equity risk premium | 7.0% |
| Cost of equity | 17.2% |
Valuation
| BDT mn unless stated | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F | FY2032F | FY2033F | FY2034F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounting (valuation date 30-Oct-2026, mid-year cash flows) | ||||||||
| Years from valuation date | 0.17 | 1.17 | 2.17 | 3.17 | 4.17 | 5.17 | 6.17 | 7.17 |
| Discount factor at cost of equity | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| 1. SPCL 86 MW plant: free cash flow to equity | ||||||||
| Plant PAT + depreciation - change in BPDB receivable + change in gas payable - capex + salvage | 701 | 905 | 781 | 479 | 260 | 248 | 236 | 424 |
| PV, SPCL plant | 682 | 752 | 554 | 290 | 134 | 109 | 89 | 136 |
| 2. Associate MPCL (49%): look-through earnings | ||||||||
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bear | 35.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: base | 20.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bull | 10.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows | 20.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bear | 6.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: base | 7.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bull | 8.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS | 7.0x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Associate profit share + run-off of its book value, after holding discount | 654 | 646 | 595 | 544 | 544 | 544 | 544 | 113 |
| PV, associate | 637 | 537 | 422 | 329 | 281 | 240 | 205 | 36 |
| 3. Direct 11.66% of Midland East Power (carried at cost 11.7) | ||||||||
| 11.66% x MEPL profit, after holding discount | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 17 |
| PV, direct MEPL stake | 41 | 35 | 30 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 5 |
| Sum of the parts (value in first column) | ||||||||
| SPCL plant (PV of FCFE) | 2,746 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| of which after the NENP end (FY2030F onward) | 758 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Associate MPCL (49%) | 2,686 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Direct MEPL stake (11.66%) | 192 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL book equity, FY2026E (= NCI / 10%) | 3,156 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL ROE, average FY2027F-FY2029F | 5.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL justified P/B = ROE / cost of equity (0-1x) | 0.3x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PRL (90% x book x justified P/B) | 895 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Parent cash, T-bills and MTDRs (Mar-26, standalone) | 615 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tax disputes x 50% probability | -109 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value (BDT mn) | 7,027 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SOTP per share (BDT) | 37.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/E cross-check per share (multiple x FY2027F EPS) | 39.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value (70% SOTP + 30% P/E), BDT per share | 38.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share of SOTP from SPCL cash flows after the NENP end | 10.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E on FY2027F EPS | 6.7x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied P/B on FY2026E NAV (43.29) | 0.9x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied dividend yield on FY2027F DPS | 8.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM context: PV of DPS FY2027F-FY2034F (BDT per share) | 13.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Scenario results (recalculated with the selector at 1, 2, 3) | ||||||||
| Fair value, bear (BDT per share) | 18.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value, base (BDT per share) | 38.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value, bull (BDT per share) | 51.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Probability-weighted (30% bear / 50% base / 20% bull) | 34.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sensitivity
| Grid (row input x column input) | Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 (base) | Col 4 | Col 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid A: fair value (BDT/share); rows = cost of equity, columns = SPCL plant factor after Jul-2029 (0 = shut) | |||||
| Cost of equity \ post-2029 plant factor | 0.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 65.0% |
| Ke 15.2% | 37.6 | 37.7 | 38.7 | 39.6 | 41.0 |
| Ke 16.2% | 37.0 | 37.1 | 38.0 | 38.9 | 40.3 |
| Ke 17.2% | 36.5 | 36.6 | 37.4 | 38.3 | 39.6 |
| Ke 18.2% | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 37.7 | 39.0 |
| Ke 19.2% | 35.5 | 35.6 | 36.4 | 37.2 | 38.4 |
| Grid B: FY2027F EPS (BDT); rows = SPCL FY27 plant factor, columns = MEPL profit (HFO dispatch, BDT/USD) | |||||
| Plant factor \ MEPL profit (BDT mn) | 250 | 350 | 450 | 550 | 650 |
| PF 65% | 4.55 | 4.78 | 5.01 | 5.25 | 5.48 |
| PF 70% | 4.89 | 5.12 | 5.35 | 5.59 | 5.82 |
| PF 75% | 5.23 | 5.46 | 5.69 | 5.92 | 6.16 |
| PF 80% | 5.57 | 5.80 | 6.03 | 6.26 | 6.49 |
| PF 85% | 5.91 | 6.14 | 6.37 | 6.60 | 6.83 |
| Risk shocks: one input changed, base otherwise (fair value, BDT/share) | |||||
| Contract review: -25% on MPCL and MEPL contracted profit | 35.72 | 5.08 | — | — | — |
| BPDB pays 60 days slower (receivable days +60) | 36.35 | 5.69 | — | — | — |
| Gas curtailment: SPCL plant factor -10pp FY27-FY29 | 35.78 | 5.01 | — | — | — |
| PRL gross margin -1.5pp (condensate cost) | 34.10 | 5.02 | — | — | — |
| No second renewal: SPCL shut from Jul-2029 | 36.46 | 5.69 | — | — | — |
Peers
| DSE IPP peers, 29-Oct-2026 | Price (BDT) | Mcap (BDT mn) | P/E TTM | P/B | Div. yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCL | 55.90 | 10,433.00 | 11.03 | 1.29 | 0.04 |
| UPGDCL | 112.20 | 65,042.00 | 7.00 | 1.35 | 0.06 |
| SUMITPOWER | 15.70 | 16,766.00 | 39.78 | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| DOREENPWR | 32.00 | 5,796.00 | 6.37 | 0.56 | 0.05 |
| BPPL | 19.50 | 3,373.00 | 5.59 | 0.43 | 0.01 |
| KPCL | 11.00 | 4,372.00 | 12.36 | 0.56 | 0.05 |
| BARKAPOWER | 9.80 | 2,308.00 | 10.46 | 0.43 | 0.02 |
| GBBPOWER | 12.80 | 1,303.00 | 121.28 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
FAQ
- What is Shahjibazar Power's fair value range?
- Our fair value range is BDT 18.5-51.2 per share, base BDT 38.3 (probability-weighted 34.9), from a plant-by-plant sum of the parts to each contract end (70%) and a 7x P/E on FY2027F EPS (30%), at a 17.2% cost of equity.
- When does Shahjibazar Power's PPA expire?
- The original 15-year PPA with BPDB expired on 9-Feb-2024. The government renewed it for five years on a 'no electricity, no payment' basis effective 9-Jul-2024, so the contract now runs to 9-Jul-2029 [s1 p.3; s2 p.4].
- Does SPCL still receive capacity payments?
- No. Under the NENP renewal BPDB pays only for electricity delivered (a fuel part and a non-fuel part per kWh). SPCL earned BDT 7.63 per kWh in 9M FY2026, of which BDT 4.52 went on gas [3 p.16].
- How much of SPCL's profit comes from Midland Power?
- The 49% associate Midland Power (51 MW gas plus 88.24% of the 150 MW HFO Midland East plant) contributed BDT 413.7 mn in 9M FY2026, about half of attributable profit [3 p.3]. We expect 43% in FY2027F.
- Why did EPS jump to BDT 6.04 in FY2026?
- The plant ran at 77% in 9M FY2026 versus 55% a year earlier under the NENP terms, Midland East's HFO plant was dispatched more, and the refinery returned to profit [s3 p.15; s4].
- What does SPCL's fair value assume after 2029?
- Base: a second five-year NENP renewal at a 50% plant factor and 15% lower margin. If the plant shuts instead, fair value falls to BDT 36.5. Cash flows after the NENP end are 11% of the SOTP.
Sources
- Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. audited financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2025 (consolidated and separate) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. Annual Report FY2025 (directors' report, operating tables, Petromax Refinery report) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. un-audited financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- DSE news archive for SPCL (FY2026 results and dividend 27-Oct-2026; quarterly EPS/NAV disclosures 2024-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (SPCL, DSEX weekly and daily) and IPP screener, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- Bangladesh Bank treasury auction page: 10-year bond cut-off 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Business Standard, 'Shahjibazar Power secures 5-yr extension for electricity supply to national grid' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Business Standard, 'Govt's purchase committee approves 17 proposals' (Shahjibazar NENP tariff Tk 7.04/kWh) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Financial Express, 'Midland East Power Plant commences commercial operations', 27-Nov-2018 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Financial Express, 'Listed private power producers face earnings pressure amid policy shift', 6-May-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Business Standard, 'Evidence of corruption could open way to renegotiate Adani power deal: Experts' (power-contract review committee) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Daily Star, 'Capacity payment terms must be renegotiated' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Business Standard, '86MW Shahjibazar power plant shuts operations as contract expires' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- The Daily Star, 'Shahjibazar Power to stop plant operations as deal with govt to expire' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
- AnalystBro model for this report (model.xlsx: Assumptions, statements, Valuation, Sensitivity) · accessed 2026-10-30
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