Shahjibazar Power valuation report: fair value BDT 18.5–51.2 (Oct 2026)

Shahjibazar Power: NENP plant to 2029, fair value BDT 18.5-51.2

Fair value BDT 18.5-51.2 (base 38.3) from a plant-by-plant SOTP to each contract end; FY26 EPS of BDT 6.04 rests on NENP dispatch and an associate that pays no dividend.

Company · Initiation · 29 Oct 2026 · FY2025 annual (audited) + 9M FY2026 interim + FY2026 DSE disclosure · By AnalystBro Team · 17 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Fair value range
৳19–51
Base ৳38 · price above the range · probability-weighted ৳35
Price ৳55.90
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Bear ৳19Base ৳38Bull ৳51Price ৳55.90

Plant SOTP to contract ends (CoE 17.2%) 70% · P/E 7.0x FY27F 30%

  • SPCL 86 MW plant৳10
  • Midland Power stake and direct MEPL stake৳11
  • Petromax Refinery, cash, less tax disputes৳5
  • P/E leg (30%)৳12
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 55.9
52-week rangeBDT 41.4-60.6
Market capBDT 10.4bn
Shares186.6 mn
3-month ADTV~465k shares (~BDT 25 mn)
Sub-typeSingle-site gas IPP + associate plants + refinery
Installed MW86 MW own; 51 + 150 MW at 49%-owned Midland
Fuel mix (own plant)100% gas (Jalalabad Gas)
Contract basisNENP renewal to 9-Jul-2029 (no capacity payment)
Plant factor62.5% FY25; 77% 9M FY26
BPDB receivableBDT 3.1bn, 257 days (Mar-26)
FY2026 EPS / NAV per shareBDT 6.04 / 43.29 (DSE disclosure)
P/E (FY26) / P/B9.3x / 1.29x
Dividend (FY26) / yield40% cash, BDT 4.00 / 7.2%
Net debt / owners' equity (Jun-25)0.47x (all refinery working capital)
Credit ratingAA1 / ST-1, CRAB (Dec-2025)
Auditor (FY25)G. Kibria & Co., unqualified
Year end / last periodJune / FY2026 (statements pending)
Next eventRecord date 29-Nov-2026; AGM 21-Jan-2027
Estimates
FY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
SPCL plant factor62%79%75%72%70%
Electricity sold to BPDB (mn kWh)470.8596.7565.0542.4527.4
Revenue12,33014,17314,22014,34414,535
Revenue, SPCL (fuel part + non-fuel part)3,5814,5554,3134,1414,026
EBITDA, SPCL plant9841,2201,2091,1151,044
Share of profit of associate (MPCL)257573459449386
Profit attributable to owners4731,1271,0621,0131,009
EPS (BDT)2.536.045.695.435.41
Dividend per share declared for the year (BDT)2.004.003.423.263.24
P/E at BDT 55.922.1x9.3x9.8x10.3x10.3x
P/B at BDT 55.91.4x1.3x1.2x1.2x1.1x
Dividend yield at BDT 55.93.6%7.2%6.1%5.8%5.8%
BPDB receivable days183150150140130

Thesis: finite power contracts put Shahjibazar Power's fair value at BDT 18.5-51.2, base 38.3

Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. (DSE: SPCL) is a Bangladeshi independent power producer (IPP) with three earnings streams: its own 86 MW gas-fired plant at Fatepur, Habiganj that sells to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB); a 49% stake in Midland Power Co. (a 51 MW gas plant and, through it, 88.24% of the 150 MW HFO-fired Midland East Power at Ashuganj); and 90% of Petromax Refinery Ltd., a condensate refinery in Mongla that sells all its output to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) [s1 p.15; s2 p.4].

FY2026 was the best year in the company's recent history. The board disclosed consolidated EPS of BDT 6.04 (FY2025: 2.53), NAV per share of BDT 43.29 and a 40% cash dividend on 27-Oct-2026 [4]. The full FY2026 statements are not yet public, so this report uses the audited FY2025 accounts and the 9M FY2026 interim (to 31-Mar-2026) as the latest filed statements, and the DSE disclosure for the FY2026 totals.

Our view is that FY2026 is close to a peak. SPCL's own plant now earns no capacity payment: it was renewed in July 2024 on 'no electricity, no payment' (NENP) terms for five years, so profit depends on how much gas it gets and how often BPDB dispatches it. That contract ends on 9-Jul-2029. Midland Power's 51 MW PPA runs, on our reading of its 15-year term, to about December 2028, and Midland East's to about November 2033. We model each contract to its end and value the parts separately. The base case (BDT 38.3) assumes a second NENP renewal for SPCL's plant at a 50% plant factor; the bear case (BDT 18.5) shuts it in 2029 with lower dispatch, a contract-review haircut and slower BPDB payment; the bull case (BDT 51.2) renews at 65% with a strong HFO year at Midland East.

Bulls say

  • The NENP renewal works: the plant ran at 77% in 9M FY26 and 90% in Q1 FY26, because gas power at BDT 7.63/kWh is among the cheapest BPDB buys [s3 p.15-16; s4].
  • Midland East's HFO plant earned BDT 461 mn in 9M FY26; at 600 mn a year to 2033 the bull case reaches BDT 51.2.
  • SPCL also owns 11.66% of Midland East directly, carried at BDT 11.7 mn cost but valued at BDT 1.0 a share in our base [1 p.26].

Bears say

  • With no capacity payment, a gas cut of 10 points of plant factor takes FY27F EPS to BDT 5.01 (base 5.69).
  • If BPDB does not renew in 2029, FY30F revenue from the plant is zero; the bear case is BDT 18.5.
  • Midland pays SPCL no dividends: in FY25 and 9M FY26 the only dividend SPCL received was BDT 90 mn from its refinery [s1 p.34; s3 p.5]. Associate profit is book profit, not cash.
Exhibit 1SPCL has outperformed the DSEX by about 42 points in two years (+45% vs +3%)
index
050.0100150200Oct-24Feb-25May-25Sep-25Jan-26Apr-26Aug-26
SPCL (rebased 100)DSEX (rebased 100)
Data
Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26Apr-26Jun-26Aug-2629-Oct-26
SPCL (rebased 100)100.0087.0087.3087.0095.10112.40120.50139.90128.00124.40136.50151.80136.80144.80
DSEX (rebased 100)100.0097.1098.5099.0089.60102.90103.0095.6097.00101.8099.80110.40107.70103.00
Source: chart_bars weekly closes, every 8th week, Oct-2024 to 29-Oct-2026 [5]
Exhibit 2Football field: SOTP and P/E legs put fair value at BDT 18.5-51.2; P/B, yield bands and the 52-week range sit higher
020.040.060.080.0Plant SOTP (bear-bull)18.549.7P/E 6-8x on FY27F EPS18.554.5DDM to FY2034 (bear-bull, not weighted)5.118.4Own 2-yr P/B band 0.8-1.4x on FY26 NAV34.660.6Dividend yield 6-9% on FY27F DPS37.956.9Blended fair value18.551.252-week trading range41.460.6Base 38.3Price 55.9
Data
LowHigh
Source: Model Valuation sheet [15]; chart_bars [5]

SPCL owns 86 MW outright and 49% of 201 MW at Midland; the associate was 51% of 9M FY26 profit

Shahjibazar Power was incorporated in 2007, won a BPDB tender in February 2008 and began commercial operation of its 86 MW gas-engine plant on 10-Feb-2009; it listed on the DSE and CSE in July 2014 [s1 p.15; s2 p.4]. Jalalabad Gas Transmission and Distribution supplies the gas under a gas sales agreement renewed in July 2024 [2 p.32].

The group has three other legs. Petromax Refinery (PRL), 90% owned and consolidated, fractionates natural gas condensate into diesel, kerosene, petrol and octane for BPC; it produced 113.3 mn litres in FY2025 and made up 71% of group revenue [s1 p.2; s2 p.35]. Midland Power Co. (MPCL), 49% owned and equity-accounted, runs a 51 MW gas plant at Ashuganj (COD 7-Dec-2013) and owns 88.24% of Midland East Power (MEPL), a 150 MW HFO plant on the same site (COD 26-Nov-2018); SPCL holds the other 11.66% of MEPL directly [s1 p.15, p.34; s2 p.4]. MPCL and MEPL are significant for this report: the associate was about half of 9M FY2026 attributable profit, so both are analysed with their own figures (from SPCL's associate note) below.

Exhibit 3Four businesses: one consolidated plant, one consolidated refinery, two plants through the associate
EntityBusinessOwnershipFY25 profit (BDT mn, 100%)9M FY26 profit (BDT mn, 100%)How it reaches SPCL's accounts
SPCL 86 MW plantGas power, BPDBParent229.3327.2Consolidated line by line
Petromax Refinery LtdCondensate refinery, BPC90%-15.482.7Consolidated; 10% NCI
Midland Power Co Ltd (own plant)51 MW gas, BPDB49%411.9437.3Equity method
Midland East Power Ltd150 MW HFO, BPDB88.24% MPCL, 11.66% SPCL128.0461.2Inside MPCL's profit; SPCL's direct 11.66% held at cost (BDT 11.7 mn)
Source: [s1 p.25-26, p.34; s3 p.3, p.9-10]

Revenue is dominated by the refinery, but profit is not. In FY2025 PRL booked BDT 8,749 mn of revenue and a net loss of BDT 15 mn, while the power plant's BDT 3,581 mn of revenue produced most of the operating profit [s1 p.33; s2 p.117]. Non-controlling interests take only 10% of PRL, so almost all consolidated profit belongs to SPCL shareholders (NCI was BDT 8.3 mn of BDT 823.6 mn in 9M FY26) [3 p.3].

Exhibit 4The refinery is about 68% of revenue in FY26E, but a small part of profit
BDT mn
05,00010,00015,000ForecastFY24FY25FY26EFY27FFY28FFY29FFY30F
SPCL powerPetromax Refinery
Data
FY24FY25FY26EFY27FFY28FFY29FFY30F
SPCL power2,338.003,581.004,555.004,313.004,141.004,026.002,700.00
Petromax Refinery8,827.008,749.009,618.009,906.0010,203.0010,510.0010,825.00
Source: [s1 p.33; s3 p.16]; model [15]

Plant registry: SPCL's own NENP term ends on 9-Jul-2029; the Midland dates are our reading

The table below is the core of the valuation. SPCL's own plant is already past its original 15-year PPA (which expired on 9-Feb-2024); the plant was shut from 11-Feb-2024 and restarted on 1-Aug-2024 under the NENP amendment [s4, 14-Nov-2024; s13; s14]. Midland Power's PPA with BPDB was signed on 11-Apr-2012 for 15 years with a provision for renewal [1 p.15]; counting from COD this ends around December 2028. Midland East was built as a 15-year build-own-operate plant from its November 2018 COD, as reported by The Financial Express [9], which puts its end around November 2033. The exact MPCL and MEPL contract dates are not in SPCL's filings: they are our reading and a labelled gap.

Exhibit 5Plant registry: 287 MW of power capacity across three plants and one refinery
PlantMWFuelOfftakerCommercial operationContract toBasis nowSPCL interest
Shahjibazar (Fatepur, Habiganj)86GasBPDB10-Feb-20099-Jul-2029NENP renewal (energy only, no capacity payment)100%
Midland Power (Ashuganj)51GasBPDB7-Dec-2013~Dec-2028 (15 yrs, our reading)Original PPA49% (associate)
Midland East Power (Ashuganj)150HFOBPDB26-Nov-2018~Nov-2033 (15-yr BOO, reported)Original PPA43.2% via MPCL + 11.66% direct
Petromax Refinery (Mongla)2,500 bpsdCondensateBPC25-Oct-2013No expirySells all output to BPC90% (subsidiary)
Source: [s1 p.15; s2 p.4, p.32; s9]

SPCL's plant factor rose to 77% in 9M FY26 from 55% as BPDB bought cheap gas power

Plant factor (electricity sold divided by 86 MW running all year) is the main driver of SPCL's own revenue. It averaged 59-83% between FY2019 and FY2023 under the original PPA, fell to 37% in FY2024 when the plant was idle for almost six months between contracts, recovered to 62.5% in FY2025 and reached 77% in 9M FY2026 (90% in Q1 FY2026) [s2 p.34; s1 p.35; s3 p.15; s4]. Under NENP terms BPDB calls on plants in merit order, and a gas engine selling at about BDT 7.6 per kWh is cheaper than the HFO and diesel plants it competes with, so SPCL is dispatched whenever Jalalabad Gas can supply it.

That makes gas the binding constraint. Bangladesh's domestic gas output is falling and LNG imports are costly; in winter gas is diverted to fertiliser and households. We assume 75% in FY2027F, 72% in FY2028F and 70% in FY2029F, below FY2026's 79% estimate (9M at 77% plus an assumed 85% summer quarter). Each 5 points of plant factor is about BDT 0.34 of FY2027F EPS (sensitivity grid in the valuation section).

The plant itself is a bank of gas engines built with GE International under the 2008 BPDB tender, run by 80 plant staff and 40 head-office staff [s2 p.34; s1 p.36]. Its licence capacity is 753.4 mn kWh a year (86 MW x 8,760 hours). Output was 474.1 mn kWh in FY2019, 440.5 mn in FY2020, 605.5 mn in FY2021, 619.9 mn in FY2022 and 477.1 mn in FY2023 under the original PPA, then 279.8 mn in FY2024 and 470.8 mn in FY2025 [s2 p.34; s1 p.35]. Maintenance is lumpy: spare-parts purchases were BDT 0.7 mn in FY2024, BDT 176.8 mn in FY2025 and BDT 299.5 mn in 9M FY2026 as engines were overhauled for high dispatch [s1 p.33; s3 p.16]. We hold other plant cost at BDT 480-520 mn a year while it runs.

Gas supply outlook. SPCL buys gas from Jalalabad Gas under a gas sales agreement renewed for the NENP term in July 2024, backed by bank guarantees of about BDT 830 mn in favour of the gas company [s2 p.32; s1 p.36]. Its gas cost per kWh has been stable (BDT 4.54 in FY2025, 4.52 in 9M FY2026) because the regulated tariff did not change in the period and is passed through in the fuel part [s1 p.33; s3 p.16]. The risk is volume, not price: Bangladesh's domestic gas fields are declining, LNG imports compete for foreign exchange, and the government decides who gets the gas. That is why we take plant factor down from 79% (FY26E) to 70% by FY2029F and to 50% under any renewal, rather than assume FY2026's summer peak repeats.

Exhibit 6Plant factor: 83% in FY22, 37% in FY24, 79% in FY26E, then 50% under a renewed NENP from FY30F
%
00.20.40.60.81ForecastFY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26EFY27FFY28FFY29FFY30F0.640.590.810.830.640.370.620.790.750.720.70.5
Data
FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26EFY27FFY28FFY29FFY30F
SPCL plant factor0.640.590.810.830.640.370.620.790.750.720.700.50
Source: [s2 p.34; s1 p.35; s3 p.15]; model [15]

Revenue per kWh has two parts. The fuel part reimburses gas at the regulated price (BDT 2,740 mn in FY2025) and the non-fuel part pays for operation and the plant (BDT 841 mn) [1 p.33]. In 9M FY2026 SPCL earned BDT 7.63 per kWh and paid BDT 4.52 for gas, leaving BDT 3.11 to cover maintenance, wages, depreciation and profit [3 p.16]. The government's purchase committee approved the renewal at BDT 7.04 per kWh, as reported by The Business Standard [8]; the realised figure is higher because the fuel part moves with the gas tariff. Because gas is passed through, a gas-price rise moves revenue and cost together and leaves the spread unchanged; a gas volume cut is what hurts.

Exhibit 7SPCL keeps about BDT 3.1 per kWh over gas; we cut that 15% for the post-2029 renewal
BDT per kWhFY2024AFY2025A9M FY2026FY2027FFY2030F
Revenue per kWh8.357.617.637.637.17
Gas cost per kWh4.084.544.524.524.52
Spread over gas per kWh4.283.073.113.112.65
Source: [s1 p.33, p.35; s3 p.15-16]; model [15]

Contracts: SPCL's plant earns energy payments only, and its NENP term ends on 9-Jul-2029

Bangladesh's IPP contracts traditionally paid a capacity charge (per kW available, whether used or not) plus an energy charge. After the initial term the government has renewed old plants, if at all, on 'no electricity, no payment' terms, which pay only for energy delivered. SPCL went through this in 2024: its 15-year PPA ended in February 2024, the plant shut, and the Power Division approved a five-year NENP extension effective 9-Jul-2024, formalised by BPDB through a first amendment [s1 p.2-3; s7; s13]. The FY2024 revenue per kWh of BDT 8.35 included capacity payments for part of the year; FY2025's BDT 7.61 did not [s1 p.33, p.35].

Policy is moving against capacity payments. The interim government's national committee reviewing power contracts submitted its final report in January 2026, recommending renegotiation of high-cost agreements and cancellation where corruption is proven, as reported by The Business Standard and The Daily Star [s11; s12]. The Financial Express reported in May 2026 that most listed IPPs saw revenue fall as the government declined to renew contracts on expiry; SPCL was one of two exceptions [10]. For SPCL the direct exposure is small (its plant has no capacity payment left to cut), but Midland Power and Midland East still earn under original PPAs. A 25% cut to their contracted profit lowers our base fair value to BDT 35.7 and FY2027F EPS to BDT 5.08.

What happens in 2029 matters less than it seems. If the plant shuts on 9-Jul-2029, the BDT 1,434 mn BPDB receivable and BDT 1,175 mn gas payable we forecast for June 2029 unwind, and the plant is fully depreciated by then (net book value BDT 1,013 mn in March 2026, depreciation BDT 361 mn a year) [s3 p.2; s1 p.25]. The shutdown case gives BDT 36.5 against the base BDT 38.3: cash flows after the NENP end are 11% of our SOTP, below the 25% level at which the sector spec treats a valuation as leaning on renewal.

Receivables: BPDB owed BDT 3.1bn in March 2026 (257 days), and SPCL passes the delay on to its gas supplier

BPDB's payment delays are the main working-capital swing. SPCL's receivable from BPDB rose from BDT 94 mn in June 2024 to BDT 1,798 mn in June 2025 (183 days of revenue) and BDT 3,134 mn in March 2026, about 257 days of annualised 9M revenue; the FY2025 balance was all under six months old [s1 p.27; s3 p.2]. SPCL has managed this by paying Jalalabad Gas late too: the gas payable rose from BDT 22 mn to BDT 1,029 mn and then BDT 2,303 mn over the same dates [s1 p.32; s3 p.2]. The cost is a delay-payment charge, BDT 124.8 mn in FY2025 and BDT 40.0 mn in 9M FY2026, which is SPCL's main finance cost [s1 p.34; s3 p.17].

The FY2026 DSE disclosure shows operating cash flow of BDT 7.33 per share (FY2025: 3.49), so BPDB paid more in the fourth quarter [4]. We set June-2026 receivable days at 150, which makes the model's FY2026E operating cash flow BDT 6.80 per share, close to the disclosed figure, and let them fall to 120 days by FY2030F. A further 60-day delay changes FY2027F EPS little (it is a cash, not a profit, item) but lowers fair value to BDT 36.4.

BPDB payment history, quarter by quarter, comes from the company's own explanations to the DSE. In Q1 FY2025 operating cash flow was negative (BDT -0.15 a share) because 'outstanding sales proceeds of SPCL [were] not collected from BPDB'; by H1 FY2025 it was BDT -1.10; FY2025 ended at BDT 3.49 against 7.28 a year earlier, again blamed on BPDB [s4; s1 p.11]. The tide turned in FY2026: Q1 was still negative (BDT -1.14, this time Petromax's BPC receivable), H1 reached BDT 3.45 'due to more cash receipts from BPDB', 9M BDT 4.50 and the full year BDT 7.33 [s4; s3 p.5]. BPDB also deducts tax at source from its payments (BDT 112.7 mn in FY2025), which is why SPCL's cash tax runs ahead of its accounts [1 p.31].

Exhibit 8BPDB receivable rose 33-fold in 21 months to BDT 3.1bn; the gas payable tracked it
BDT mn
01,0002,0003,0004,000ForecastJun-24Jun-25Mar-26Jun-26EJun-27FJun-28FJun-29FJun-30F
BPDB receivable (BDT mn)Gas payable to Jalalabad Gas (BDT mn)
Data
Jun-24Jun-25Mar-26Jun-26EJun-27FJun-28FJun-29FJun-30F
BPDB receivable (BDT mn)94.401,797.603,133.801,872.001,773.001,588.001,434.00888.00
Gas payable to Jalalabad Gas (BDT mn)21.901,028.802,302.901,478.001,259.001,209.001,175.00840.00
Source: [s1 p.27, p.32; s3 p.2]; model [15]

Group debt sits in the refinery. Consolidated short-term loans and LC liabilities were BDT 3,779 mn in June 2025 and BDT 5,438 mn in March 2026, almost all at PRL; SPCL itself has no bank loans after repaying its term loan in FY2024 [s1 p.7, p.12; s3 p.1-2]. Foreign-exchange exposure is indirect: SPCL's tariff is in taka and its realised FX loss was BDT 7.1 mn in FY2025 [1 p.33]; PRL buys imported condensate in dollars but BPC adjusts product prices monthly [2 p.117]; Midland East's tariff currency is not disclosed in our sources (gap). We treat FX through the MEPL profit and PRL margin ranges in the scenarios rather than as a separate driver.

Industry: the government is moving away from capacity payments and HFO plants

BPDB is the single buyer of grid power in Bangladesh. Much of the installed capacity built under the 2010 Speedy Supply Act was contracted with capacity payments, which left BPDB paying for idle plants and running up arrears to private producers. The national review committee estimated 7,700-9,500 MW of idle capacity and USD 0.9-1.5bn a year of capacity payments on it, as reported by The Business Standard and The Daily Star [s11; s12]. The policy direction since 2024 is NENP renewals or no renewal at all for old plants, and a shift away from costly HFO and rental plants toward LNG, coal and renewables [10].

Within that market SPCL's own plant is on the right side: an efficient gas plant with no capacity charge, dispatched for its cost. Its risks are gas supply and the 2029 renewal decision. Midland East is on the wrong side: an HFO plant whose dispatch depends on BPDB's cash and the gas shortfall, and the kind of contract the review committee targets. Midland East's profit swung from a BDT 282 mn loss in FY2024 to BDT 461 mn in 9M FY2026 [s1 p.34; s3 p.9], which is why our MEPL range is wide (BDT 250-600 mn a year).

Midland Power and Petromax: the associate adds BDT 14.4 a share, the refinery 4.8

Midland Power (MPCL). On its own consolidated figures (summarised in SPCL's associate note) MPCL earned BDT 530.8 mn in FY2025 on revenue of BDT 10,680 mn and BDT 899.3 mn in 9M FY2026 on BDT 7,568 mn; its net assets were BDT 6,734 mn in March 2026, with BDT 10.3bn of current assets (mostly BPDB receivables) financed by BDT 10.0bn of current financial liabilities [s1 p.25-26; s3 p.9]. Split by plant, the 51 MW gas plant made BDT 437.3 mn in 9M FY2026 and Midland East BDT 461.2 mn [s3 p.9-10]. SPCL books 49% of MPCL's profit after MEPL's minorities: BDT 257.2 mn in FY2025 and BDT 413.7 mn in 9M FY2026 [s1 p.34; s3 p.3].

Exhibit 9Associate profit share more than doubled to BDT 413.7 mn in 9M FY26 as Midland East's HFO plant ran
BDT mn (100% of each company)FY2024AFY2025A9M FY2026FY2027FFY2030F
MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit161412437540260
Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit-282128461450450
SPCL share of associate profit-43257414459322
MPCL group revenue7,85210,6807,568——
MPCL group net assets (period end)—5,9726,734——
Source: [s1 p.25-26, p.34; s3 p.3, p.9-10]; model [15]

We forecast MPCL's own plant at BDT 540 mn in FY2027F, falling to half after its PPA ends around December 2028 (an NENP renewal like SPCL's own), and Midland East at BDT 450 mn a year to November 2033. We value the stake on look-through cash: the profit share plus the run-off of its BDT 2,507 mn FY2026E book value as plants depreciate and receivables are collected, with a 20% holding discount because MPCL has not paid SPCL a dividend in the period we reviewed. That gives BDT 2,686 mn, or BDT 14.4 per share. The direct 11.66% of Midland East adds BDT 1.0.

Petromax Refinery (PRL). Revenue was BDT 8,749 mn in FY2025 and BDT 7,213 mn in 9M FY2026; gross margin fell from 8.0% in FY2024 to 5.6% in FY2025 as allocations of local condensate (fixed price, better yield) were replaced by imported cargoes, and recovered to 6.8% in 9M FY2026 [s1 p.33; s2 p.117; s3 p.16]. Finance cost (BDT 456 mn in FY2025) takes most of the gross profit [1 p.34]. We forecast a 6.5% margin, 3% revenue growth and PRL profit of BDT 160 mn in FY2027F. On a 5.4% ROE against a 17.2% cost of equity, we value the refinery at 0.32x its BDT 3,156 mn book, BDT 4.8 per SPCL share.

The refinery story. Petromax fractionates natural gas condensate into diesel, kerosene and naphtha, then hydrotreats and reforms the naphtha into petrol and octane; BPC buys everything [2 p.127]. Its market is large relative to its size: BPC put national petroleum demand for FY2025 at about 7.4 mn tonnes, 63% of it diesel, while PRL sold 113.3 mn litres [s2 p.35, p.117]. Feedstock is the issue. Local condensate allocated through Rupantarita Prakritik Gas (RPGCL) came at a fixed price with good yields; as allocations fell PRL turned to imported cargoes priced off world markets, while BPC sets product prices monthly, so margins squeezed [2 p.117]. PRL lost BDT 15.3 mn in FY2025 and declared no dividend, after paying SPCL BDT 90 mn for FY2024 [s2 p.118; s1 p.34]. Its working capital is large: BPC owed it BDT 1,833 mn and it held BDT 2,151 mn of stock in March 2026, funded by LCs and short-term loans of BDT 5.4bn [s3 p.1-2]. The value is sensitive to our 6.5% margin: 1.5 points lower takes fair value to BDT 34.1 and FY2027F EPS to BDT 5.02; the bull's 7.5% is part of its BDT 51.2.

Exhibit 10Petromax earns 6.5% gross margin in FY27F; interest takes most of it
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028F
Revenue, PRL (petroleum products to BPC)8,8278,7499,6189,90610,203
PRL gross margin8.0%5.6%6.8%6.5%6.5%
Finance cost, PRL (LC and short-term loans)311456484416416
Profit after tax, PRL248-15107160171
Source: [s1 p.33-35; s3 p.16-17]; model [15]

Forecast: EPS eases from BDT 6.04 in FY26 to 5.69 in FY27F and 4.09 in FY30F as contracts roll off

Each line is built from its own driver. SPCL revenue = 86 MW x 8,760 hours x plant factor x revenue per kWh; gas cost = kWh x BDT 4.52; other plant cost (spares, lubricants, wages, maintenance) at BDT 480-520 mn a year while running; depreciation of BDT 361 mn a year until the plant is fully written down in FY2029. The finance cost is the gas-bill delay charge, at 3.5% of the average gas payable. Tax is 42.5% of plant profit after WPPF, the 9M FY2026 rate including deferred and minimum tax [3 p.4]. The associate line is 49% x (MPCL own-plant profit + 88.24% x Midland East profit). For FY2026E it is a plug: we solve it so attributable profit equals the disclosed EPS of BDT 6.04, which gives BDT 572.5 mn, implying BDT 158.8 mn in the fourth quarter against BDT 413.7 mn in the first nine months. PRL revenue grows 3% a year at a 6.5% gross margin, with interest at 11% on BDT 3.8bn of working-capital debt and tax at the higher of 0.6% of receipts and 27.5% of profit.

Exhibit 11Key assumptions: plant factor, spread and the Midland contracts carry the forecast
DriverFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FWhy
SPCL plant factor62%79%75%72%70%50%9M FY26 77%; gas allocation caps it; NENP ends Jul-2029
SPCL spread over gas (BDT/kWh)3.073.113.113.113.112.659M FY26 3.11; renewed tariff 15% lower margin
BPDB receivable days183150150140130120Mar-26 peak 257 days; slow normalisation
MPCL own plant profit (BDT mn)412—540520390260PPA to ~Dec-2028, then NENP at half
MEPL profit (BDT mn)128—450450450450HFO dispatch; 9M FY26 461
PRL gross margin5.6%6.8%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%Imported vs local condensate
Payout of EPS79%66%60%60%60%60%FY24-26 range 52-79%
Source: Model Assumptions sheet [15]

The result: attributable profit of BDT 1,062 mn in FY2027F (EPS 5.69), BDT 1,013 mn in FY2028F and BDT 1,009 mn in FY2029F, then BDT 764 mn in FY2030F when SPCL's plant moves to a lower-dispatch renewal and Midland Power's own plant to NENP. FY2026's BDT 6.04 combined high dispatch at both gas plants with an unusually strong HFO year at Midland East; our FY2027F is 6% lower. Against the 4-quarter run-rate (BDT 6.04, all of it reported) our FY2027F EPS is lower for the same reason. Dividends follow at a 60% payout: BDT 3.42 for FY2027F against BDT 4.00 for FY2026.

Exhibit 12Quarterly EPS: BDT 1.32-1.67 a quarter in FY26 vs 0.36-1.10 in FY25
BDT
00.511.52Forecast1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q264Q261Q27F2Q27F3Q27F4Q27F0.361.10.370.71.411.631.321.671.541.541.21.42
Data
1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q264Q261Q27F2Q27F3Q27F4Q27F
EPS (BDT)0.361.100.370.701.411.631.321.671.541.541.201.42
Source: DSE disclosures [4]; FY27F quarters = model EPS x seasonal share [15]
Exhibit 13Income statement FY2024A-FY2034F (segment build)
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
SPCL 86 MW gas plant (standalone, ex associate and group dividends)
Electricity sold to BPDB (mn kWh)279.8470.8596.7565.0542.4527.4376.7376.7376.7376.7376.7
Revenue, SPCL (fuel part + non-fuel part)2,3383,5814,5554,3134,1414,0262,7002,7002,7002,7002,700
Gas cost (Jalalabad Gas)1,1402,1382,6972,5542,4522,3841,7031,7031,7031,7031,703
Other plant cost (spares, lube, wages, maintenance)148386572480500520450470490510530
Depreciation, SPCL plant47436136136136120100000
Cost of sales, SPCL1,7622,8853,6303,3953,3133,1042,1532,1732,1932,2132,233
Gross profit, SPCL576696925918828921547527507487467
General and admin, SPCL6673667074786062646668
Finance cost, SPCL (gas-bill delay charge)65130584843423529292929
Other income, SPCL (ex dividend from PRL)2272394040404040404040
Plant profit before WPPF and tax, SPCL467565840841751842492476454432410
WPPF (5%), SPCL2231424238422524232220
Income tax, SPCL194305339339303340199192183174165
Profit after tax, SPCL plant251229459459410460269260248236224
Petromax Refinery Ltd (PRL, 90% subsidiary; sole customer BPC)
Revenue, PRL (petroleum products to BPC)8,8278,7499,6189,90610,20310,51010,82511,15011,48411,82912,183
Cost of sales, PRL (condensate feed)8,1218,2628,9699,2629,5409,82610,12110,42510,73811,06011,391
Gross profit, PRL706487649644663683704725746769792
General and admin, PRL1009773778185899398103108
Finance cost, PRL (LC and short-term loans)311456484416416416416416416416416
Other income, PRL5266818181818181818181
Profit before WPPF and tax, PRL3461173232248264280297314331349
WPPF, PRL16091212131415161717
Income tax, PRL (higher of 0.6% minimum tax on receipts and 27.5%)8216586165697378828791
Profit after tax, PRL248-15107160171182193204216228241
Associate: Midland Power Co (49%) incl. 88.24% of Midland East Power
Share of profit of associate (MPCL)-43257573459449386322322322322142
Consolidated
Revenue11,16412,33014,17314,22014,34414,53513,52413,84914,18414,52814,883
Net profit after tax4564711,1381,0781,0301,027784786786786606
Non-controlling interest (10% of PRL)25-2111617181920222324
Profit attributable to owners4314731,1271,0621,0131,009764766764763582
EPS (BDT)2.312.536.045.695.435.414.094.104.104.093.12
Dividend per share declared for the year (BDT)1.202.004.003.423.263.242.462.462.462.451.87
EBITDA, SPCL plant9849841,2201,2091,1151,044487465443421399

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: Model [15]
Exhibit 14Balance sheet: cash builds as BPDB days normalise; debt stays at the refinery
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
PPE, SPCL plant1,6441,284923562201000000
PPE, right-of-use and CWIP, PRL and other2,2552,1071,8571,6071,3571,1571,007907807757707
Investment in associate (MPCL, equity method)1,6771,9342,5072,9663,4153,8014,1234,4454,7675,0895,230
Other investments and FVTPL assets1,374907907907907907907907907907907
Receivable from BPDB (SPCL)941,7981,8721,7731,5881,434888888888888888
Receivable from BPC (PRL)1,6121,0021,1861,3571,3981,4401,4831,5271,5731,6201,669
Inventories1,5961,9992,0892,2842,3522,4232,4962,5712,6482,7272,809
Advances, deposits, other receivables, goods in transit1,4251,6731,7311,9812,0412,1022,1652,2302,2972,3662,437
Cash and cash equivalents1433591,2059531,4731,8551,8921,8141,7281,5881,443
Total assets11,82013,06314,27614,39014,73215,11814,96015,28815,61415,94216,090
Short-term loans and LC liabilities3,9533,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,779
Trade payable to Jalalabad Gas (SPCL)221,0291,4781,2591,2091,175840840840840840
Deferred tax liabilities239297297297297297297297297297297
Other liabilities (sundry, lease, expenses, other payables)213327327327327327327327327327327
Total liabilities4,4275,4325,8815,6635,6135,5795,2435,2435,2435,2435,243
Equity attributable to owners7,0767,3258,0798,3958,7719,1729,3319,6389,94310,24710,371
Non-controlling interests316305316332349367386407428451475
Total liabilities and equity11,82013,06314,27614,39014,73215,11814,96015,28815,61415,94216,090
Balance check (assets - liabilities - equity)00000000000
NAV per share, owners (BDT)37.9239.2543.2944.9847.0049.1450.0051.6453.2854.9155.57

From the Balance sheet tab of the model.

Source: Model [15]
Exhibit 15Cash flow: operating cash tracks receivable days
BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
Net profit after tax——1,1381,0781,0301,027784786786786606
Depreciation (SPCL + PRL)——661661661451200150150100100
Less share of associate profit (non-cash)——-573-459-449-386-322-322-322-322-142
Change in BPDB receivable——-74991841545460000
Change in BPC receivable——-184-171-41-42-43-44-46-47-49
Change in inventories——-90-195-69-71-73-75-77-79-82
Change in advances and other current assets——-58-250-59-61-63-65-67-69-71
Change in gas payable——449-218-50-34-3360000
Change in other liabilities and deferred tax——000000000
Cash flow from operations1,3596481,2695451,2071,039693430424368363
Capex——-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50
Change in other investments——000000000
Cash flow from investing-889506-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50
Change in short-term loans and LC liabilities——-000000000
Dividends paid to owners (prior year's declaration)——-373-747-637-608-605-459-459-459-458
Cash flow from financing-671-938-373-747-637-608-605-459-459-459-458
Net change in cash-201216846-25252038138-79-85-140-145
Closing cash1433591,2059531,4731,8551,8921,8141,7281,5881,443
Operating cash flow per share (BDT)7.283.476.802.926.475.573.712.302.271.971.94

From the Cash flow tab of the model.

Source: Model [15]

Model update

Latest statements used: 9M FY2026 (to 31-Mar-2026) plus the DSE-disclosed FY2026 EPS, NAV and dividend. The model will be updated when the audited FY2026 annual report is filed.

Valuation: plant SOTP and P/E give BDT 18.5-51.2; base 38.3 = 6.7x FY27F EPS

Fair value range BDT 18.5-51.2 per share, base BDT 38.3, probability-weighted BDT 34.9 (30% bear, 50% base, 20% bull). The base implies 6.7x FY2027F EPS, 0.88x FY2026 NAV of BDT 43.29 and a 8.9% yield on our FY2027F dividend. Cash flows after SPCL's NENP end are 11% of the SOTP. Uncertainty: High.

Method. A sum of the parts is used because the parts have different lives and economics: a plant to July 2029 (plus a possible renewal), two associate plants to about 2028 and 2033 (our reading of their terms, see the registry), and a refinery with no contract end. Each contracted part is valued as cash flow to equity to its contract end at a 17.2% cost of equity (cost of equity table below): SPCL's plant as profit plus depreciation plus the working capital released when it stops; Midland as its profit share plus the run-off of its book value, less a 20% holding discount; the refinery on its book value times ROE over cost of equity. The SOTP gives BDT 37.7. We blend it 70/30 with a 7x P/E on FY2027F EPS (BDT 39.8), the top of the 5.6-7.0x range of operating DSE IPPs [5]. A dividend discount model gives only BDT 13.7, because it ignores the book value left in 2034; we show it but do not weight it.

Two departures from the F23 sector method, stated so they can be judged. First, our base assumes a second NENP renewal for SPCL's plant in 2029 (F23's default is one NENP year, then shutdown); we depart because SPCL is already on NENP terms and is dispatched at 77% as cheap gas power. The F23 default is close to our shutdown shock, BDT 36.5. Second, we weight SOTP 70% and P/E 30% instead of F23's SOTP 50% / DDM 30% / P/E 20%; on F23 weights the base would be BDT 30.9, because the DDM omits the book value still on the balance sheet in 2034. The direct 11.66% Midland East stake is valued on its profit share only, with no book run-off, because Midland East's own book equity is not disclosed in our sources.

Exhibit 16SOTP: SPCL's plant and the Midland stake are 77% of value
PartBDT mnBDT per shareMethod
SPCL 86 MW plant2,746.414.7FCFE to Jul-2029 + 5-yr NENP renewal at 50% plant factor
of which after the NENP end758.04.1FY2030F-FY2034F
Associate MPCL (49%)2,686.214.4Profit share + book run-off, 20% holding discount
Direct 11.66% of Midland East Power192.21.0Profit share to Nov-2033, 20% discount
Petromax Refinery (90%)895.44.8Book 3,156 x ROE/CoE = 0.32x
Parent cash, T-bills, MTDRs615.43.3Mar-26 standalone
Tax disputes x 50%-108.8-0.6AY2021-24 demands under appeal
Equity value (SOTP)7,026.937.7—
P/E leg: 7.0x FY2027F EPS—39.8Peer range 5.6-7.0x
Fair value, base (70% SOTP / 30% P/E)—38.3—
Source: Model Valuation sheet [15]
Exhibit 17Method weights: SOTP 70% / P/E 30% give BDT 38.3; F23's 50/30/20 would give 30.9
MethodBDT per share (base)Our weightF23 default weightWhy
Plant SOTP to contract ends37.70.70.5Finite contracts; parts differ in life and economics
P/E 7.0x FY2027F EPS39.80.30.2How the DSE prices IPPs (peers 5.6-7.0x)
DDM to FY203413.70.00.3Ignores book left in 2034; same renewal call as SOTP
Blended fair value38.3——F23 weights would give 30.9
Source: Model Valuation sheet [15]; F23 spec section G
Exhibit 18Bridge: plant BDT 14.7 + Midland 14.4 + refinery 4.8 + cash, blended with P/E, = BDT 38.3
BDT per share
025.050.075.0100125SPCL plantMidland stakeDirect MEPLPetromaxParent cashTax disputesSOTPBlend with P/EFair value14.714.414.83.3-0.637.70.738.3
Data
SPCL plantMidland stakeDirect MEPLPetromaxParent cashTax disputesSOTPBlend with P/EFair value
BDT per share14.7014.401.004.803.30-0.6037.700.7038.30
Source: Model Valuation sheet [15]
Exhibit 19Cost of equity 17.2% = 9.27% + 1.13 x 7.0%
InputValueSource
Risk-free: 10-yr T-bond cut-off (25-Oct-2026)9.3%Bangladesh Bank [s6]
Beta, raw (2 yrs weekly vs DSEX, R2 0.16)1.19chart_bars [s5]
Beta, Blume-adjusted (used)1.130.67 x raw + 0.33
Equity risk premium7.0%BD convention 7-7.5%
Cost of equity17.2%= Rf + beta x ERP
Source: [s5; s6]; model WACC sheet [15]
Exhibit 20Sensitivity: each 1pp of cost of equity moves fair value by about BDT 0.6; FY27F EPS moves BDT 0.34 per 5pp of plant factor
Grid (row input x column input)Col 1Col 2Col 3 (base)Col 4Col 5
Grid A: fair value (BDT/share); rows = cost of equity, columns = SPCL plant factor after Jul-2029 (0 = shut)
Cost of equity \ post-2029 plant factor0.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%65.0%
Ke 15.2%37.637.738.739.641.0
Ke 16.2%37.037.138.038.940.3
Ke 17.2%36.536.637.438.339.6
Ke 18.2%36.036.036.937.739.0
Ke 19.2%35.535.636.437.238.4
Grid B: FY2027F EPS (BDT); rows = SPCL FY27 plant factor, columns = MEPL profit (HFO dispatch, BDT/USD)
Plant factor \ MEPL profit (BDT mn)250350450550650
PF 65%4.554.785.015.255.48
PF 70%4.895.125.355.595.82
PF 75%5.235.465.695.926.16
PF 80%5.575.806.036.266.49
PF 85%5.916.146.376.606.83
Risk shocks: one input changed, base otherwise (fair value, BDT/share)
Contract review: -25% on MPCL and MEPL contracted profit35.725.08———
BPDB pays 60 days slower (receivable days +60)36.355.69———
Gas curtailment: SPCL plant factor -10pp FY27-FY2935.785.01———
PRL gross margin -1.5pp (condensate cost)34.105.02———
No second renewal: SPCL shut from Jul-202936.465.69———

From the Sensitivity tab of the model.

Source: Model Sensitivity sheet (recalculations) [15]
Exhibit 21Scenarios: bear BDT 18.5 (30%), base 38.3 (50%), bull 51.2 (20%)
BearBaseBull
SPCL after Jul-2029Shut, salvage 100NENP renewal, 50% PF, margin -15%NENP renewal, 65% PF, margin -10%
SPCL plant factor FY27-2962% / 55% / 50%75% / 72% / 70%80% / 78% / 75%
Contract-review haircut on SPCL margin10% from FY27none before 2029none before 2029
BPDB receivable days210150 falling to 120110 falling to 90
MPCL own plant after Dec-2028ShutNENP at 50% of profitNENP at 75%
MEPL profit a year (BDT mn)250450600
PRL gross margin5.0%6.5%7.5%
Holding discount on MPCL / MEPL35%20%10%
P/E multiple on FY2027F EPS (30% leg)6.0x7.0x8.0x
FY2027F EPS (BDT)3.095.696.81
Fair value (BDT per share)18.538.351.2
Probability30%50%20%
Source: Model recalculated with the scenario selector [15]

Reverse check. The market price of BDT 55.9 on 29-Oct-2026 is above our bull case: at 9.3x FY2026 EPS and 1.29x NAV it prices FY2026 earnings as if they were durable beyond the contract ends. Getting to that price on our model needs roughly bull-case dispatch and Midland East profit plus a lower cost of equity; the grid shows that even a 15.2% cost of equity with a 65% post-2029 plant factor gives BDT 41.0 on base drivers.

Exhibit 22DSE IPP peers trade at 5.6-7.0x trailing earnings (ex Summit, KPCL); SPCL at 9.3x FY26 EPS
DSE IPPPrice (BDT)P/E TTMP/BDividend yield
SPCL55.909.251.290.07
UPGDCL112.207.001.350.06
DOREENPWR32.006.370.560.05
BPPL19.505.590.430.01
SUMITPOWER15.7039.780.260.07
KPCL11.0012.360.560.04
Source: screener_run 29-Oct-2026 [5]; SPCL on FY2026 EPS [4]
Exhibit 23Valuation sheet: per-year cash flows and discounting
BDT mn unless statedFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
Discounting (valuation date 30-Oct-2026, mid-year cash flows)
Years from valuation date0.171.172.173.174.175.176.177.17
Discount factor at cost of equity0.970.830.710.610.520.440.380.32
1. SPCL 86 MW plant: free cash flow to equity
Plant PAT + depreciation - change in BPDB receivable + change in gas payable - capex + salvage701905781479260248236424
PV, SPCL plant68275255429013410989136
2. Associate MPCL (49%): look-through earnings
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bear35.0%———————
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: base20.0%———————
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bull10.0%———————
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows20.0%———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bear6.0x———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: base7.0x———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bull8.0x———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS7.0x———————
Associate profit share + run-off of its book value, after holding discount654646595544544544544113
PV, associate63753742232928124020536
3. Direct 11.66% of Midland East Power (carried at cost 11.7)
11.66% x MEPL profit, after holding discount4242424242424217
PV, direct MEPL stake413530252218165
Sum of the parts (value in first column)
SPCL plant (PV of FCFE)2,746———————
of which after the NENP end (FY2030F onward)758———————
Associate MPCL (49%)2,686———————
Direct MEPL stake (11.66%)192———————
PRL book equity, FY2026E (= NCI / 10%)3,156———————
PRL ROE, average FY2027F-FY2029F5.4%———————
PRL justified P/B = ROE / cost of equity (0-1x)0.3x———————
PRL (90% x book x justified P/B)895———————
Parent cash, T-bills and MTDRs (Mar-26, standalone)615———————
Tax disputes x 50% probability-109———————
Equity value (BDT mn)7,027———————
SOTP per share (BDT)37.7———————
P/E cross-check per share (multiple x FY2027F EPS)39.8———————
Fair value (70% SOTP + 30% P/E), BDT per share38.3———————
Share of SOTP from SPCL cash flows after the NENP end10.8%———————
Implied P/E on FY2027F EPS6.7x———————
Implied P/B on FY2026E NAV (43.29)0.9x———————
Implied dividend yield on FY2027F DPS8.9%———————
DDM context: PV of DPS FY2027F-FY2034F (BDT per share)13.7———————
Scenario results (recalculated with the selector at 1, 2, 3)
Fair value, bear (BDT per share)18.5———————
Fair value, base (BDT per share)38.3———————
Fair value, bull (BDT per share)51.2———————
Probability-weighted (30% bear / 50% base / 20% bull)34.9———————

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: Model [15]

Risks: a 1.5pp refinery margin cut is the biggest single hit (-BDT 4.2 a share)

Each risk below is a change to one model input, with everything else at base; the bear case combines several of them. Gas supply moves SPCL's kWh; the contract review moves the associate's profit; BPDB payment timing moves receivables and the gas-bill delay charge; condensate prices move PRL's gross margin; the 2029 decision moves SPCL's revenue after FY2029.

Exhibit 24Five risks, each tied to the line it moves
RiskLine it movesFY2027F EPS (BDT)Fair value (BDT/share)Change vs base
Gas curtailment at FatepurSPCL kWh: plant factor -10pp FY27-295.0135.78-2.52
Contract review / tariff haircut on Midland PPAsAssociate profit: MPCL and MEPL contracted profit -25%5.0835.72-2.58
BPDB pays laterBPDB receivable +60 days; gas payable and delay charges5.6936.35-1.95
Condensate cost squeeze at PRLPRL gross margin -1.5pp5.0234.10-4.20
No second NENP renewal in 2029SPCL revenue to zero from FY30; salvage 2005.6936.46-1.84
Source: Model recalculations [15]

Other risks not in the numbers: tax disputes for AY2021-24 (BDT 217.5 mn demanded, under appeal; we deduct half) [1 p.36]; bank guarantees of BDT 925.8 mn in favour of BPDB, customs and Jalalabad Gas, which become liabilities only on default [s1 p.35-36]; the 2024 auditor change (ACNABIN to G. Kibria & Co.) and an unqualified FY2025 opinion with an 'other matter' paragraph [s1 p.4; s4]; and concentration: BPDB and BPC are effectively the only customers. Positive risks: a second renewal on better terms, or Midland paying dividends that close the holding discount.

What to watch: the FY26 annual report, winter dispatch and the 9-Jul-2029 NENP end

Exhibit 25Catalysts: six dated events, the first on 29-Nov-2026
DateEventWhat to watch
29-Nov-2026Record date, 40% cash dividend (BDT 4.00)BDT 746.5 mn cash out; parent cash Mar-26 BDT 402 mn + BPDB collections
Nov-Dec 2026Audited FY2026 statements and annual reportJun-26 BPDB receivable, gas payable, MPCL/MEPL split, PRL profit
Jan-2027Q2 FY2027 results; AGM 21-Jan-2027Winter plant factor (gas diverted to fertiliser/households)
~Dec-2028Midland Power 51 MW PPA end (our reading)Renewal on NENP or shutdown: 49% of its profit
9-Jul-2029SPCL NENP renewal endsSecond renewal request; base case assumes one at 50% dispatch
~Nov-2033Midland East 150 MW PPA end (reported 15-yr BOO)Largest remaining contracted earnings
Source: [s4; s1 p.15; s2 p.4; s9]
  • Plant factor each quarter (DSE results notes give it): below 65% in a summer quarter would point to the bear case.
  • BPDB receivable in the June-2026 and December-2026 balance sheets: above BDT 3bn again means cash is not following profit.
  • Associate profit split between MPCL's own plant and Midland East; any MPCL dividend to SPCL.
  • Any Power Division statement on renewing 2008-2013 gas IPPs after their NENP terms.
  • PRL gross margin and the share of local versus imported condensate.

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

DriverFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
Scenario selector (1 bear, 2 base, 3 bull)2——————————
Cost of equity adjustment (sensitivity grids only)0.0%——————————
Shares outstanding (mn)186.63——————————
DSE-disclosed FY2026 attributable profit (BDT mn) = EPS 6.04 x shares1,127.3——————————
SPCL installed capacity (MW)86——————————
Scenario drivers (bear / base / bull rows; the active row feeds the model)
SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h): bear———62.0%55.0%50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h): base———75.0%72.0%70.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%
SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h): bull———80.0%78.0%75.0%65.0%65.0%65.0%65.0%65.0%
SPCL plant factor (kWh sold / 86 MW x 8,760 h)37.1%62.5%79.2%75.0%72.0%70.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%
Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost): bear———10.0%10.0%10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost): base———0.0%0.0%0.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%
Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost): bull———0.0%0.0%0.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
Haircut on SPCL spread (tariff less gas cost)——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%
SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end): bear———210210210210210210210210
SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end): base———150140130120120120120120
SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end): bull———110100909090909090
SPCL receivable days on BPDB (year end)15183150150140130120120120120120
MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn): bear———48045022500000
MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn): base———540520390260260260260130
MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn): bull———580560490420420420420210
MPCL own 51 MW gas plant profit, 100% (BDT mn)161412—540520390260260260260130
Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn): bear———250250250250250250250100
Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn): base———450450450450450450450180
Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn): bull———600600600600600600600240
Midland East Power (150 MW HFO) profit, 100% (BDT mn)-282128—450450450450450450450180
PRL gross margin: bear———5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%
PRL gross margin: base———6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%
PRL gross margin: bull———7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%
PRL gross margin8.0%5.6%6.8%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%
SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn): bear———0001000000
SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn): base———0000000200
SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn): bull———0000000300
SPCL salvage / land value at shutdown (BDT mn)———0000000200
Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year: bear———10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%0.0%
Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year: base———14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%0.0%
Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year: bull———14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%0.0%
Share of associate book value (FY2026E) returned as cash in the year———14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%0.0%
Other drivers (all scenarios)
SPCL revenue per kWh (BDT)——7.637.637.637.637.637.637.637.637.63
SPCL gas cost per kWh (BDT)——4.524.524.524.524.524.524.524.524.52
SPCL other plant cost if running (BDT mn)——572480500520450470490510530
SPCL general and admin (BDT mn)——667074786062646668
SPCL delay charge rate on gas payable———3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%
SPCL other income ex group dividends (BDT mn)——394040404040404040
SPCL tax rate on plant profit after WPPF——42.5%42.5%42.5%42.5%42.5%42.5%42.5%42.5%42.5%
SPCL gas payable days (Jalalabad Gas)——200180180180180180180180180
SPCL capex (BDT mn)——000000000
PRL revenue growth———3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
PRL general and admin (BDT mn)——73778185899398103108
PRL short-term loans + LC liabilities (year end, BDT mn)——3,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,779
PRL interest rate on debt———11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%
PRL other income (BDT mn)——818181818181818181
PRL receivable days on BPC——455050505050505050
Inventory days (on PRL cost of sales)——859090909090909090
Advances, deposits and other current assets / PRL revenue——18.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%
PRL depreciation (BDT mn, balance sheet only)——300300300250200150150100100
PRL capex (BDT mn)——505050505050505050
Dividend payout (declared DPS / attributable EPS)———60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%

Income statement

BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
SPCL 86 MW gas plant (standalone, ex associate and group dividends)
Electricity sold to BPDB (mn kWh)279.8470.8596.7565.0542.4527.4376.7376.7376.7376.7376.7
Revenue, SPCL (fuel part + non-fuel part)2,3383,5814,5554,3134,1414,0262,7002,7002,7002,7002,700
Gas cost (Jalalabad Gas)1,1402,1382,6972,5542,4522,3841,7031,7031,7031,7031,703
Other plant cost (spares, lube, wages, maintenance)148386572480500520450470490510530
Depreciation, SPCL plant47436136136136120100000
Cost of sales, SPCL1,7622,8853,6303,3953,3133,1042,1532,1732,1932,2132,233
Gross profit, SPCL576696925918828921547527507487467
General and admin, SPCL6673667074786062646668
Finance cost, SPCL (gas-bill delay charge)65130584843423529292929
Other income, SPCL (ex dividend from PRL)2272394040404040404040
Plant profit before WPPF and tax, SPCL467565840841751842492476454432410
WPPF (5%), SPCL2231424238422524232220
Income tax, SPCL194305339339303340199192183174165
Profit after tax, SPCL plant251229459459410460269260248236224
Petromax Refinery Ltd (PRL, 90% subsidiary; sole customer BPC)
Revenue, PRL (petroleum products to BPC)8,8278,7499,6189,90610,20310,51010,82511,15011,48411,82912,183
Cost of sales, PRL (condensate feed)8,1218,2628,9699,2629,5409,82610,12110,42510,73811,06011,391
Gross profit, PRL706487649644663683704725746769792
General and admin, PRL1009773778185899398103108
Finance cost, PRL (LC and short-term loans)311456484416416416416416416416416
Other income, PRL5266818181818181818181
Profit before WPPF and tax, PRL3461173232248264280297314331349
WPPF, PRL16091212131415161717
Income tax, PRL (higher of 0.6% minimum tax on receipts and 27.5%)8216586165697378828791
Profit after tax, PRL248-15107160171182193204216228241
Associate: Midland Power Co (49%) incl. 88.24% of Midland East Power
Share of profit of associate (MPCL)-43257573459449386322322322322142
Consolidated
Revenue11,16412,33014,17314,22014,34414,53513,52413,84914,18414,52814,883
Net profit after tax4564711,1381,0781,0301,027784786786786606
Non-controlling interest (10% of PRL)25-2111617181920222324
Profit attributable to owners4314731,1271,0621,0131,009764766764763582
EPS (BDT)2.312.536.045.695.435.414.094.104.104.093.12
Dividend per share declared for the year (BDT)1.202.004.003.423.263.242.462.462.462.451.87
EBITDA, SPCL plant9849841,2201,2091,1151,044487465443421399

Balance sheet

BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
PPE, SPCL plant1,6441,284923562201000000
PPE, right-of-use and CWIP, PRL and other2,2552,1071,8571,6071,3571,1571,007907807757707
Investment in associate (MPCL, equity method)1,6771,9342,5072,9663,4153,8014,1234,4454,7675,0895,230
Other investments and FVTPL assets1,374907907907907907907907907907907
Receivable from BPDB (SPCL)941,7981,8721,7731,5881,434888888888888888
Receivable from BPC (PRL)1,6121,0021,1861,3571,3981,4401,4831,5271,5731,6201,669
Inventories1,5961,9992,0892,2842,3522,4232,4962,5712,6482,7272,809
Advances, deposits, other receivables, goods in transit1,4251,6731,7311,9812,0412,1022,1652,2302,2972,3662,437
Cash and cash equivalents1433591,2059531,4731,8551,8921,8141,7281,5881,443
Total assets11,82013,06314,27614,39014,73215,11814,96015,28815,61415,94216,090
Short-term loans and LC liabilities3,9533,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,7793,779
Trade payable to Jalalabad Gas (SPCL)221,0291,4781,2591,2091,175840840840840840
Deferred tax liabilities239297297297297297297297297297297
Other liabilities (sundry, lease, expenses, other payables)213327327327327327327327327327327
Total liabilities4,4275,4325,8815,6635,6135,5795,2435,2435,2435,2435,243
Equity attributable to owners7,0767,3258,0798,3958,7719,1729,3319,6389,94310,24710,371
Non-controlling interests316305316332349367386407428451475
Total liabilities and equity11,82013,06314,27614,39014,73215,11814,96015,28815,61415,94216,090
Balance check (assets - liabilities - equity)00000000000
NAV per share, owners (BDT)37.9239.2543.2944.9847.0049.1450.0051.6453.2854.9155.57

Cash flow

BDT mnFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
Net profit after tax——1,1381,0781,0301,027784786786786606
Depreciation (SPCL + PRL)——661661661451200150150100100
Less share of associate profit (non-cash)——-573-459-449-386-322-322-322-322-142
Change in BPDB receivable——-74991841545460000
Change in BPC receivable——-184-171-41-42-43-44-46-47-49
Change in inventories——-90-195-69-71-73-75-77-79-82
Change in advances and other current assets——-58-250-59-61-63-65-67-69-71
Change in gas payable——449-218-50-34-3360000
Change in other liabilities and deferred tax——000000000
Cash flow from operations1,3596481,2695451,2071,039693430424368363
Capex——-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50
Change in other investments——000000000
Cash flow from investing-889506-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50
Change in short-term loans and LC liabilities——-000000000
Dividends paid to owners (prior year's declaration)——-373-747-637-608-605-459-459-459-458
Cash flow from financing-671-938-373-747-637-608-605-459-459-459-458
Net change in cash-201216846-25252038138-79-85-140-145
Closing cash1433591,2059531,4731,8551,8921,8141,7281,5881,443
Operating cash flow per share (BDT)7.283.476.802.926.475.573.712.302.271.971.94

Ratios

RatioFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
SPCL plant factor37.1%62.5%79.2%75.0%72.0%70.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%
SPCL revenue per kWh (BDT)8.357.617.637.637.637.637.177.177.177.177.17
SPCL spread over gas per kWh (BDT)4.283.073.113.113.113.112.652.652.652.652.65
BPDB receivable days15183150150140130120120120120120
Associate share of attributable profit-10.0%54.4%50.8%43.2%44.4%38.2%42.1%42.0%42.1%42.2%24.3%
NCI leakage (NCI / consolidated profit)5.4%-0.3%0.9%1.5%1.7%1.8%2.5%2.6%2.8%2.9%4.0%
ROE (attributable / average owners' equity)—6.6%14.6%12.9%11.8%11.2%8.3%8.1%7.8%7.6%5.6%
Payout (DPS / EPS)51.9%79.1%66.2%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%
Net debt / owners' equity53.8%46.7%31.9%33.7%26.3%21.0%20.2%20.4%20.6%21.4%22.5%
P/E at BDT 55.924.2x22.1x9.3x9.8x10.3x10.3x13.7x13.6x13.6x13.7x17.9x
P/B at BDT 55.91.5x1.4x1.3x1.2x1.2x1.1x1.1x1.1x1.0x1.0x1.0x
Dividend yield at BDT 55.92.1%3.6%7.2%6.1%5.8%5.8%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%3.3%

Quarterly

EPS, BDT (consolidated, attributable)1Q25A2Q25A3Q25A4Q25A1Q26A2Q26A3Q26A4Q26A1Q27F2Q27F3Q27F4Q27F
EPS (BDT)0.361.100.370.701.411.631.321.671.541.541.201.42
SPCL plant factor (cumulative period)54.0%—55.0%—90.0%—77.0%—————

WACC

Cost of equity inputValue
Risk-free rate: 10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-20269.3%
Beta, raw (104 weekly returns vs DSEX)1.19
Beta, Blume-adjusted (0.67 x raw + 0.33)1.13
Equity risk premium7.0%
Cost of equity17.2%

Valuation

BDT mn unless statedFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034F
Discounting (valuation date 30-Oct-2026, mid-year cash flows)
Years from valuation date0.171.172.173.174.175.176.177.17
Discount factor at cost of equity0.970.830.710.610.520.440.380.32
1. SPCL 86 MW plant: free cash flow to equity
Plant PAT + depreciation - change in BPDB receivable + change in gas payable - capex + salvage701905781479260248236424
PV, SPCL plant68275255429013410989136
2. Associate MPCL (49%): look-through earnings
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bear35.0%———————
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: base20.0%———————
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows: bull10.0%———————
Holding discount on associate and MEPL cash flows20.0%———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bear6.0x———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: base7.0x———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS: bull8.0x———————
P/E cross-check multiple on FY2027F EPS7.0x———————
Associate profit share + run-off of its book value, after holding discount654646595544544544544113
PV, associate63753742232928124020536
3. Direct 11.66% of Midland East Power (carried at cost 11.7)
11.66% x MEPL profit, after holding discount4242424242424217
PV, direct MEPL stake413530252218165
Sum of the parts (value in first column)
SPCL plant (PV of FCFE)2,746———————
of which after the NENP end (FY2030F onward)758———————
Associate MPCL (49%)2,686———————
Direct MEPL stake (11.66%)192———————
PRL book equity, FY2026E (= NCI / 10%)3,156———————
PRL ROE, average FY2027F-FY2029F5.4%———————
PRL justified P/B = ROE / cost of equity (0-1x)0.3x———————
PRL (90% x book x justified P/B)895———————
Parent cash, T-bills and MTDRs (Mar-26, standalone)615———————
Tax disputes x 50% probability-109———————
Equity value (BDT mn)7,027———————
SOTP per share (BDT)37.7———————
P/E cross-check per share (multiple x FY2027F EPS)39.8———————
Fair value (70% SOTP + 30% P/E), BDT per share38.3———————
Share of SOTP from SPCL cash flows after the NENP end10.8%———————
Implied P/E on FY2027F EPS6.7x———————
Implied P/B on FY2026E NAV (43.29)0.9x———————
Implied dividend yield on FY2027F DPS8.9%———————
DDM context: PV of DPS FY2027F-FY2034F (BDT per share)13.7———————
Scenario results (recalculated with the selector at 1, 2, 3)
Fair value, bear (BDT per share)18.5———————
Fair value, base (BDT per share)38.3———————
Fair value, bull (BDT per share)51.2———————
Probability-weighted (30% bear / 50% base / 20% bull)34.9———————

Sensitivity

Grid (row input x column input)Col 1Col 2Col 3 (base)Col 4Col 5
Grid A: fair value (BDT/share); rows = cost of equity, columns = SPCL plant factor after Jul-2029 (0 = shut)
Cost of equity \ post-2029 plant factor0.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%65.0%
Ke 15.2%37.637.738.739.641.0
Ke 16.2%37.037.138.038.940.3
Ke 17.2%36.536.637.438.339.6
Ke 18.2%36.036.036.937.739.0
Ke 19.2%35.535.636.437.238.4
Grid B: FY2027F EPS (BDT); rows = SPCL FY27 plant factor, columns = MEPL profit (HFO dispatch, BDT/USD)
Plant factor \ MEPL profit (BDT mn)250350450550650
PF 65%4.554.785.015.255.48
PF 70%4.895.125.355.595.82
PF 75%5.235.465.695.926.16
PF 80%5.575.806.036.266.49
PF 85%5.916.146.376.606.83
Risk shocks: one input changed, base otherwise (fair value, BDT/share)
Contract review: -25% on MPCL and MEPL contracted profit35.725.08———
BPDB pays 60 days slower (receivable days +60)36.355.69———
Gas curtailment: SPCL plant factor -10pp FY27-FY2935.785.01———
PRL gross margin -1.5pp (condensate cost)34.105.02———
No second renewal: SPCL shut from Jul-202936.465.69———

Peers

DSE IPP peers, 29-Oct-2026Price (BDT)Mcap (BDT mn)P/E TTMP/BDiv. yield
SPCL55.9010,433.0011.031.290.04
UPGDCL112.2065,042.007.001.350.06
SUMITPOWER15.7016,766.0039.780.260.07
DOREENPWR32.005,796.006.370.560.05
BPPL19.503,373.005.590.430.01
KPCL11.004,372.0012.360.560.05
BARKAPOWER9.802,308.0010.460.430.02
GBBPOWER12.801,303.00121.280.630.00

FAQ

What is Shahjibazar Power's fair value range?
Our fair value range is BDT 18.5-51.2 per share, base BDT 38.3 (probability-weighted 34.9), from a plant-by-plant sum of the parts to each contract end (70%) and a 7x P/E on FY2027F EPS (30%), at a 17.2% cost of equity.
When does Shahjibazar Power's PPA expire?
The original 15-year PPA with BPDB expired on 9-Feb-2024. The government renewed it for five years on a 'no electricity, no payment' basis effective 9-Jul-2024, so the contract now runs to 9-Jul-2029 [s1 p.3; s2 p.4].
Does SPCL still receive capacity payments?
No. Under the NENP renewal BPDB pays only for electricity delivered (a fuel part and a non-fuel part per kWh). SPCL earned BDT 7.63 per kWh in 9M FY2026, of which BDT 4.52 went on gas [3 p.16].
How much of SPCL's profit comes from Midland Power?
The 49% associate Midland Power (51 MW gas plus 88.24% of the 150 MW HFO Midland East plant) contributed BDT 413.7 mn in 9M FY2026, about half of attributable profit [3 p.3]. We expect 43% in FY2027F.
Why did EPS jump to BDT 6.04 in FY2026?
The plant ran at 77% in 9M FY2026 versus 55% a year earlier under the NENP terms, Midland East's HFO plant was dispatched more, and the refinery returned to profit [s3 p.15; s4].
What does SPCL's fair value assume after 2029?
Base: a second five-year NENP renewal at a 50% plant factor and 15% lower margin. If the plant shuts instead, fair value falls to BDT 36.5. Cash flows after the NENP end are 11% of the SOTP.

Sources

  1. Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. audited financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2025 (consolidated and separate) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  2. Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. Annual Report FY2025 (directors' report, operating tables, Petromax Refinery report) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  3. Shahjibazar Power Co. Ltd. un-audited financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  4. DSE news archive for SPCL (FY2026 results and dividend 27-Oct-2026; quarterly EPS/NAV disclosures 2024-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  5. AnalystBro market data: DSE prices (SPCL, DSEX weekly and daily) and IPP screener, 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  6. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction page: 10-year bond cut-off 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  7. The Business Standard, 'Shahjibazar Power secures 5-yr extension for electricity supply to national grid' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  8. The Business Standard, 'Govt's purchase committee approves 17 proposals' (Shahjibazar NENP tariff Tk 7.04/kWh) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  9. The Financial Express, 'Midland East Power Plant commences commercial operations', 27-Nov-2018 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  10. The Financial Express, 'Listed private power producers face earnings pressure amid policy shift', 6-May-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  11. The Business Standard, 'Evidence of corruption could open way to renegotiate Adani power deal: Experts' (power-contract review committee) · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  12. The Daily Star, 'Capacity payment terms must be renegotiated' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  13. The Business Standard, '86MW Shahjibazar power plant shuts operations as contract expires' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  14. The Daily Star, 'Shahjibazar Power to stop plant operations as deal with govt to expire' · link · accessed 2026-10-30
  15. AnalystBro model for this report (model.xlsx: Assumptions, statements, Valuation, Sensitivity) · accessed 2026-10-30

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