Robi Axiata valuation report: fair value BDT 6.1–19.4 (Oct 2026)

Robi's revenue is growing again (6.4% in 2026F), but thin returns on a heavy asset base put fair value at BDT 6.1–19.4

Robi Axiata PLC (DSE: ROBI) is Bangladesh's second-largest mobile operator. It had 57.4mn active subscribers at the end of 2025, of whom 44.5mn used mobile internet and 39.9mn were on 4G [1 p.147]. BTRC figures reported by The Financial Express put Robi at 59.0mn of 191.1mn mobile subscriptions in August 2026 (30.9%), behind Grameenphone with 87.2mn and ahead of Banglalink with 38.0mn [7]. Axiata Group of Malaysia owns 61.8% and Bharti Airtel of India 28.2% (through the 2016 Airtel Bangladesh merger), so only 10.0% of the shares are in public hands [2 p.14].

For three years revenue barely moved: BDT 99.4bn in 2023, 99.5bn in 2024 and 99.9bn in 2025 [3 p.160] [1 p.192]. In 2025 data revenue grew 5.1% to BDT 42.8bn while voice fell 2.9% to BDT 47.0bn [1 p.147] [1 p.148]. Growth returned in 2026: revenue for the nine months to September rose 7.1% to BDT 79.3bn and profit after tax rose 19.4% to BDT 7.47bn (EPS 1.43 against 1.19) [2 p.3]. Robi's problem is not revenue but returns. The 2025 EBITDA margin was 50.4%, yet the net margin was only 9.4% [1 p.45], because depreciation, amortisation of spectrum and licences, and the cost of leased towers absorb most of the cash profit. ROE was 10.4% in 2024 and 13.5% in 2025 [1 p.45], and 2025 was helped by a one-off tax credit (effective tax rate 17%) [1 p.196].

Our model builds revenue from subscribers times ARPU (average revenue per user per month, BDT 145.8 in 2025). We assume active subscribers grow 1–1.5% a year and ARPU 3–3.5% a year, below inflation, as data replaces voice. That gives revenue of BDT 106.3bn in 2026F and 127.6bn in 2030F. The renewal of Robi's 22.4MHz of 2G-era spectrum, due on 10-Nov-2026, costs about BDT 37.1bn at BTRC's proposed price [8]; paid over ten years, it adds interest and amortisation, so EPS is flat at 1.80 in 2027F before rising to 3.17 in 2030F as older spectrum is fully amortised. Free cash flow after leases and spectrum covers a 95% payout in every year from 2027F.

Fair value is BDT 6.1–19.4, base 12.8, against a price of BDT 29.7 (29-Oct-2026). The base blends a DCF (BDT 15.8), a justified price-to-book value (BDT 8.9) and a justified EV/EBITDA value (BDT 10.9); the probability-weighted value is BDT 12.8. The price is above the range. At 29.7 the market pays 2.28x book for a company whose sustainable ROE we put at 14.0%, below our 17.1% cost of equity. The gap rests mainly on the discount rate: Robi's two-year beta against the DSEX is 1.07, against 0.59 for Grameenphone (Blume-adjusted 1.05 vs 0.72), using the same method and inputs as our GP report [13].

Axiata and Bharti hold 90% of Robi; only 10% floats, and the 2G-era spectrum expires on 10-Nov-2026

Robi was incorporated in 1995 as TM International (Bangladesh), started commercial service in December 1997 and merged with Airtel Bangladesh on 16-Nov-2016; Bharti received 1,178.5mn new shares in the merger and holds 28.2% today [2 p.6] [2 p.14]. It listed in December 2020 by issuing 523.8mn new shares at BDT 10 [2 p.6]. Shares outstanding are 5,237.9mn: Axiata Investments (Labuan) holds 3,238.3mn (61.8%), Bharti International (Singapore) 1,475.8mn (28.2%), the general public and employees 7.0% and institutions 3.0% [2 p.14]. Liquidity is thin: about 0.6mn shares a day in October 2026, roughly BDT 18mn [5]. The share was stuck at the DSE floor price of BDT 30.0 from September 2022 to January 2024 [5], so we exclude those months from any multiple history.

Licences and spectrum: the 2G licence was renewed for 15 years from 11-Dec-2011; the Airtel spectrum was partly renewed in December 2020; the 4G licence runs 15 years from 19-Feb-2018; Robi bought 7.6MHz in April 2021, 60MHz in March 2022 (10.1 years from January 2023) and 20MHz in July 2025 (7.64 years); its 3G network was shut down in September 2024 [1 p.163] [2 p.7]. Robi now runs 2G and 4G nationwide and 5G in selected areas [2 p.7]. The 22.4MHz due for renewal on 10-Nov-2026 is the main event of the next two months (see Regulation).

Subsidiaries are small: redDot Digital (IT and IoT), Smart Pay (payments; Bangladesh Bank PSP no-objection in October 2025, not yet operating), AxEnTec (data centres) and r ventures (start-up investments) [2 p.6] [4]. Together they added BDT 0.4bn of revenue in 9M-2026 (consolidated 79.3bn against Robi alone 78.8bn) and slightly lower profit [2 p.3]. None is 10% of revenue, profit or value, so we value Robi on the consolidated statements and a sum of the parts does not apply.

Parent relationship and capital actions: there is no management fee line; transactions with group companies in foreign currency were BDT 0.3bn in 2025 and imports of telecom equipment BDT 6.1bn [1 p.212]. A BDT 5.1bn provision covers an obligation to Bharti for certain tax benefits [2 p.15]. Over the last 24 months the only capital actions were cash dividends (15% for 2024, 17.5% for 2025, paid June 2026); there were no rights issues, stock dividends, bonds or placements [4]. In 2026 ECRL rated Robi AA+ (May) and then AAA (October) [4]. In August 2026 the board approved a new sub-brand, Cirkle, replacing commercial use of the Airtel brand [4]; Ziad Shatara became CEO in September 2025 [4].

Robi holds 30.9% of 191mn subscriptions; its ARPU of BDT 145.8 is below GP's 151 and data is 43% of revenue

Bangladesh has four mobile operators. On BTRC figures reported by The Financial Express, subscriptions rose from 185.8mn in January to 191.1mn in August 2026: Grameenphone 87.2mn (45.6%), Robi 59.0mn (30.9%), Banglalink 38.0mn (19.9%) and state-owned Teletalk 6.9mn (3.6%) [7]. These are SIM counts; with roughly 175mn people and many dual-SIM users, the market is close to saturation, so growth comes from re-activation after the 2024–25 SIM-verification drive, from share gains and from ARPU. Robi's own active base rose 1.2% (+667k) in 2025 to 57.4mn, which the company describes as stabilisation after SIM rationalisation [1 p.147]. Grameenphone reported 83.9mn subscribers at the end of 2025 [12 p.97].

Pricing: Robi's ARPU, calculated on all revenue, was BDT 142 in 2024 and 145.8 in 2025 (+2.5%) [1 p.147], against BDT 151 for Grameenphone in 2025 on its own definition [12 p.98]. The gap reflects Robi's lower-income and rural mix and its Airtel youth brand. Voice usage per user fell 5.9% to 141 minutes a month as calls move to OTT apps, while data use per data user rose 19.9% to 8.2GB a month [1 p.147]. Data revenue (BDT 42.8bn, +5.1%) was 43% of 2025 revenue and voice (BDT 47.0bn, −2.9%) 47% [1 p.147] [1 p.148]; the cross-over is likely within two years.

Competition: Grameenphone is the price leader with the widest network and is designated as having significant market power (SMP), which limits its ability to cut prices on-net; Banglalink competes on price. In 9M-2026 Robi's revenue grew 7.1% while Grameenphone's fell 1.5% (as covered in our GP report) [13], so Robi is gaining revenue share. Our base case assumes Robi's subscribers grow 1.5% a year in 2027–28F, slightly faster than the market, and its share of subscriptions stays near 31%; a price war, by GP defending share or by Banglalink, is the main downside (see Risks).

Revenue grows 6.4% in 2026F and about 4.5–5% a year after, from ARPU more than subscribers

Revenue in 2025 was BDT 99.9bn: mobile services 92.2bn (voice, data, SMS, subscriptions), interconnection 5.2bn, other revenue (commissions, IT and digital services) 1.8bn, lease revenue from towers and fibre 0.6bn and devices and broadband 0.1bn [1 p.192]. In 9M-2026 mobile services grew 6.9% to BDT 73.2bn, other revenue 39.9% to 1.7bn and fixed broadband reached 0.15bn, while interconnection fell 7.2% to 3.7bn as voice moved on-net and to apps [2 p.17].

2026F is the nine-month actual plus our fourth quarter: Q3-2026 revenue was BDT 26.9bn [2 p.3], Q4-2025 was 25.8bn [1 p.45], and we assume Q4-2026 of BDT 27.0bn (+4.5% y/y, flat on Q3), giving BDT 106.3bn for the year (+6.4%). On an assumed 58.5mn average active subscribers (labelled assumption: +2.4%, in line with BTRC's market growth from January to August), 2026F ARPU is BDT 151.4. From 2027F revenue is subscribers x ARPU x 12: subscribers grow 1.5% in 2027–28F and 1.0% after, as the SIM market is saturated; ARPU grows 3.0% in 2027F and 3.5% a year after. That is about 40% of the inflation rate (CPI about 8–9%): data bundles, 4G and 5G handsets and digital services lift ARPU, while voice keeps falling and competition limits price rises.

These assumptions are below the 9M-2026 growth rate (7.1%) but well above 2023–25 (flat). The base case gives ARPU of BDT 173 and revenue of BDT 127.6bn in 2030F, a 2025–30 growth rate of 5.0% a year. The bear case (ARPU +1–2.5%, subscribers flat in 2027–28F) and the bull case (ARPU +4.5–5.5%, subscribers +3%) move these two drivers symmetrically and fade back to the base by 2030F.

BTRC fees take 6.6% of revenue; the 22.4MHz renewal costs about BDT 37bn and the state collected BDT 62bn from Robi in 2025

BTRC charges: under its licence Robi pays 5.5% of revenue as revenue share and 1% to the Social Obligation Fund, plus annual licence and spectrum fees [1 p.193]. These were BDT 6.6bn in 2025 (6.6% of revenue) and 6.62% of revenue in 9M-2026 [2 p.17]; we hold the ratio at 6.62%. Spectrum bought in auctions is booked as an intangible asset and amortised (BDT 8.9bn in 2025), with the unpaid instalments as a payable to BTRC (BDT 14.1bn non-current at September 2026) that carries a finance cost (BDT 0.96bn in 2025) [1 p.193] [1 p.195] [2 p.15].

Spectrum renewal, 10-Nov-2026: Robi's 2G licence was renewed for 15 years from 11-Dec-2011 [2 p.7]. BTRC has proposed cutting renewal prices 10–30%, which would bring the cost of the 79.2MHz held by Grameenphone (32.4MHz), Robi (22.4MHz) and Banglalink (24.4MHz) to about Tk13,100.5 crore from Tk16,845.2 crore at existing rates, as reported by The Business Standard; the operators asked for deeper cuts and 20 yearly instalments [8]. Pro rata by MHz, on the same basis as our GP report [13], Robi's share is about BDT 37.1bn at the proposed price and 47.6bn at existing rates. We assume ten equal yearly instalments, the first at renewal, discounted at 9%, Robi's own borrowing rate, because Robi books spectrum as a BTRC payable rather than a lease (our GP report used GP's 9.8% lease rate; the ten-instalment term is the same) (present value BDT 25.9bn), amortised over 15 years. This adds about BDT 1.8bn of finance cost and BDT 1.7bn of amortisation in 2027F. The renewal terms were not final when we wrote this.

Income tax: the company rate is 40% [1 p.196], and a minimum tax of 2% of gross receipts applies if it is higher; at our forecast profit (PBT 14.1% of revenue in 2027F) the 40% rate binds, not the minimum tax. Robi's effective rate has swung: 64% in 2023 and 48% in 2024 (non-deductible items and income taxed at different rates), 17% in 2025 (a BDT 2.6bn credit from 'income subject to different tax rate') and 38.4% in 9M-2026 [3 p.161] [1 p.196] [2 p.3]. We use 38.4% for 2026F and 40% after; a listed-operator rate cut to 37.5% is in the bull case, as in our GP report.

Taxes on the customer: VAT and supplementary duty on talk time and data, and the SIM tax on new and replacement SIMs, are collected outside revenue but reduce what customers can spend. The FY27 budget (June 2026) proposed withdrawing the SIM tax, as reported by The Business Standard and The Financial Express [9] [10]; we have not read the Finance Act text, so the base case does not assume it, and the bull case lowers selling costs (dealer commission and SIM subsidy) to 9.8% of revenue. In total Robi paid BDT 62.0bn to the government in 2025 (VAT, duties, taxes and BTRC fees), 62% of its revenue [1 p.45].

Claims: BTRC claimed BDT 8.7bn in July 2018 after an information-system audit of 1997–2014; Robi disputes it in full, obtained a High Court injunction on condition of a BDT 1.38bn deposit (paid by May 2020), and the suit is pending before the Joint District Judge, Dhaka [1 p.212]. NBR's Large Taxpayers Unit claims BDT 4.1bn and 2.9bn of SIM-replacement tax (2007–11 and 2012–15); Robi lost at the appellate tribunal, paid 10% (BDT 0.70bn) and the appeal is with the Appellate Division; five VAT-rebate cases total BDT 2.8bn [1 p.213]. None is provided for. We assume a 25% chance of losing all of them (50% bear, 10% bull, the same convention as GP), an expected cost of BDT 4.1bn in the equity bridge, about BDT 0.78 a share.

EBITDA margin rises to 52.8% in 2026F, but D&A and tower leases take about 36% of revenue, leaving a 9.0% net margin

Cash costs: network operation and maintenance (energy, site rents outside IFRS 16, maintenance) is the largest at BDT 18.1bn in 2025 (+7.4%, on higher energy costs and 4.9% more sites), followed by selling and distribution at 11.3bn (dealer commission 9.4bn), administration at 5.6bn (salaries 5.2bn), BTRC fees 6.6bn, interconnection 4.5bn and materials 1.0bn [1 p.193] [1 p.194]. Two lines improved sharply: dealer commission fell from BDT 11.9bn in 2023 to 9.4bn in 2025 and 6.5bn in 9M-2026 (−7.6%) [3 p.161] [2 p.18], and network costs fell 2.3% in 9M-2026 [2 p.17]. The 9M-2026 EBITDA margin (operating profit plus D&A) was 53.7%, against 50.4% for 2025.

Our cost drivers: network costs flat in 2026F (the fourth quarter is seasonally heavier: BDT 5.1bn in Q4-2025 against 4.2bn in Q3) and +6% a year in 2027–28F for new sites, energy prices and the taka, 5.5% after; administration −3.5% in 2026F (9M actual) and +6–7% after on wage inflation; dealer commission and advertising at 10.1% of revenue; interconnection falling from 4.4% to 4.1% of revenue as voice shrinks; other operating costs 2.6–2.9%. The EBITDA margin is 52.8% in 2026F and 52.4% in 2030F, inside Robi's 46.2–51.0% range of 2023–25 plus the 2026 gain. The bear case raises network costs to +9% and selling costs to 10.6% of revenue in 2027–28F; the bull case does the opposite.

Below EBITDA: depreciation of the network (BDT 17.4bn in 2025), amortisation of spectrum and licences (8.9bn) and depreciation of leased towers and sites (5.2bn) together were BDT 31.5bn, 31.5% of revenue [1 p.193]. Robi leases most of its towers (edotco is the largest tower company in Bangladesh), so interest on lease liabilities was another BDT 5.1bn [1 p.195]. EBITDA after leases (EBITDAaL) was BDT 40.1bn, a 40.1% margin. We depreciate PPE at 16.5% of the opening balance (the 9M-2026 rate) and amortise existing spectrum at 26% of the opening balance; amortisation falls from BDT 9.2bn in 2026F to 4.5bn in 2030F as older spectrum runs off, which is why EPS rises in 2028–30F. That run-off is an accounting effect: the 60MHz and 20MHz blocks and the 4G licence expire in 2033 and will have to be renewed, so in the terminal value we charge a normal spectrum cost of 8.8% of revenue (Robi's 2023–25 amortisation rate).

FX: Robi has no foreign-currency loans; FX losses came from USD-priced capex and payables: BDT 1.65bn in 2023, 0.73bn in 2024 and 0.05bn in 2025 [3 p.161] [1 p.195]. Telecom equipment imports were BDT 6.1bn in 2025 (12.8bn in 2024) [1 p.212]. We assume a BDT 0.3bn loss a year; a 10% taka fall is in the bear case (losses of BDT 1.2–1.5bn and capex 1.5pp of revenue higher).

Capex falls from 18.0% of revenue in 2026F to 13%; free cash flow covers a 95% payout 1.64x in 2027F

Capex excluding spectrum was BDT 16.4bn (16.5% of revenue) in 2024 and 13.0bn (13.1%) in 2025 [1 p.45] [1 p.148]; on-air sites rose 4.9% to 19,165 in 2025, nearly all with 4G [1 p.148]. In 9M-2026 Robi paid BDT 20.4bn for PPE and intangibles, against 13.5bn a year earlier [2 p.5]; part of this cleared capex payables (accounts payable including capex fell from BDT 13.8bn to 8.5bn) [2 p.16], and part is the Dhaka radio-network modernisation for 5G ordered at the end of 2025 [1 p.212]. We put accrual capex at 18% of revenue in 2026F, then 15%, 14% and 13% in 2027–30F, close to the 2025 rate and above the F26 floor of 10%.

Cash flow: operating cash flow (after BDT 48.0bn of VAT and tax paid) was BDT 47.3bn in 2025; after capex (16.7bn) and lease payments (12.4bn including interest), free cash flow was BDT 18.2bn [1 p.162]. 9M-2026 operating cash flow was BDT 32.4bn, 7.3% lower, because of higher capex payments to suppliers and tax [2 p.5]. In our forecast free cash flow after leases and spectrum is BDT 8.2bn in 2026F (the capex-payable paydown and the first renewal instalment) and BDT 14.8bn–17.4bn a year in 2027–30F. Bank loans were BDT 2.6bn at September 2026 at 8–10%, and Robi has no long-term loans [2 p.16] [1 p.45].

Dividends: Robi declared BDT 1.00, 1.50 and 1.75 a share for 2023, 2024 and 2025, 163%, 112% and 98% of EPS; all were final cash dividends, with no interim [1 p.161] [2 p.4] [4]. So the payout ratio is high, but the dividend is small because profit is small: BDT 1.75 is a 5.9% yield on the price. We assume a 95% payout (80% bear, 100% bull). With free cash flow above the dividend, cash builds to BDT 23.7bn by 2030F; a higher payout or more 5G investment are both possible uses. The BTRC and NBR claims, if lost, would take about one year of free cash flow.

Profit rises from BDT 9.5bn in 2026F to 16.6bn in 2030F; 2026F matches the nine-month run-rate

Reconciliation with the latest actuals: 9M-2026 revenue was BDT 79.3bn, operating profit 18.3bn, profit before tax 12.1bn and profit after tax 7.47bn [2 p.3]. Our 2026F implies a fourth quarter of BDT 27.0bn revenue, 5.3bn operating profit, 3.3bn PBT and 2.1bn profit (Q3-2026: 26.9bn, 6.3bn, 4.1bn and 2.5bn). Named Q4 drivers: revenue flat on Q3 at BDT 27.0bn; network O&M BDT 5.4bn (Q4-2025 5.1bn, +5.7%), the seasonal year-end rise in selling and administration costs, D&A of about BDT 8.3bn (Q3 8.1bn), and tax at 38.4%. Q4 profit is lower than Q3 because these costs are seasonally higher in the last quarter (the 2025 EBITDA margin was 50.1% in Q4 against 51.5% in Q3 [1 p.45]) and the tax rate stays at the 9M level. Q4-2025 profit of BDT 3.1bn was flattered by the tax credit; Q4-2025 operating profit was only BDT 2.7bn because of a BDT 10.2bn depreciation charge [1 p.160], against our Q4-2026 D&A of BDT 8.3bn.

Finance costs: lease interest at 12.5% of the opening lease liability (11.9% in 2025, 12.7% in 9M-2026) [2 p.15], spectrum finance cost at 5.6% on the existing payable plus 9% on the new renewal, and loan interest at 9%. Net finance cost rises from BDT 7.7bn in 2026F to 9.5bn in 2027F with the renewal, then eases. WPPF is 4.85% of profit before it. EPS is 1.82 in 2026F, 1.80 in 2027F and 3.17 in 2030F; ROE rises from 13.6% to 21.2%, but on a normal spectrum charge the 2030F ROE is 14.0%.

History check (§4b): Robi's ROE was 4.8% in 2023 (3.2bn on average equity of about 66bn), 10.4% in 2024 and 13.5% in 2025 [1 p.45]; at a 40% tax rate the 2025 figure would be 9.8%, and 9M-2026 annualises to about 14.5%. The pre-2023 record (listing in 2020, floor-price years 2022–23) is not in our model. The model's own 2030F ROE with a normal spectrum charge is 16.1%, above every year of history, because cash builds on the balance sheet and margins expand; we do not rely on it. For valuation we normalise sustainable ROE to 14.0%, the top of Robi's history (9M-2026 annualised), with 12% in the bear case and 16% in the bull case, and set the terminal return on new capital equal to it. EBITDA margins in the forecast (52.4%–52.8%) are within 2 points of the 2026 nine-month level.

Robi earns a 9.4% net margin against GP's 18.7%, yet trades at 16.6x 2025 earnings against GP's 10.8x

The only listed peer on the DSE is Grameenphone; Banglalink is owned by VEON and unlisted, Teletalk by the state. Both companies' figures come from their own 2025 filings [1 p.160] [11 p.9]. GP is 1.6 times Robi's size by revenue, with a 8.2-point higher EBITDA margin, half Robi's capex intensity in 2025 and an ROE near 49% against Robi's 13.5%. The difference is scale: network and spectrum costs are largely fixed, so the larger operator earns much more on each taka of revenue. Robi pays a higher multiple of earnings (P/E 16.6x vs 10.8x) and a lower multiple of book (2.23x vs 5.72x).

We use GP only as a cross-check, not as a valuation leg: one peer is not a sector median, and GP's returns are not comparable with Robi's. Robi's own EV/EBITDA, including leases and the spectrum payable, was 4.2x at the end of both 2024 and 2025 [5]; it is about 3.7x on our 2027F EBITDA at today's price, against a justified 2.14x from our cash-flow forecast.

Fair value range BDT 6.1–19.4, base 12.8: the price implies a much lower cost of equity than our 17.1%

Discount rate: the 10-year Bangladesh government bond cut-off yield was 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026 [6]. Robi's raw beta against the DSEX over two years of weekly returns is 1.07 (R² 0.36) [5], Blume-adjusted to 1.05; with a 7.5% equity risk premium the cost of equity is 17.1%. These are the same Rf, ERP and beta method as our Grameenphone report, where GP's raw beta was 0.59 and the adjusted beta 0.72 [13]; F26's 0.7 floor does not bind. Bank debt is about 3% of capital at 9% before tax, so WACC is 16.8%. Leases are treated as operating payments inside free cash flow; the existing spectrum payable (BDT 13.3bn at end-2026F) and the expected cost of the claims are deducted in the bridge.

DCF: free cash flow to the firm after leases and spectrum instalments is BDT 18.5bn–21.3bn a year in 2027–30F, with a present value of BDT 55.1bn at end-2026. The terminal value starts from 2030F operating profit with amortisation replaced by a normal spectrum cost (8.8% of revenue, BDT 6.7bn more cost), less lease interest and tax, grown at 5.0%; reinvestment is g divided by a 14% return on new capital, equal to the sustainable ROE (Robi's ROCE was 18% in 2024 and 16% in 2025 [1 p.45]), so 35.7% of terminal NOPAT is reinvested. The terminal value is 45% of EV. EV is BDT 100.8bn and the DCF value BDT 15.8 a share. Because the return on new capital is close to WACC, growth adds little value, which is why the WACC–g grid below is flat.

Price-to-book: on our sustainable ROE of 14.0% (normalised to the top of own history), g of 5.0% and a payout of 64% (= 1 − g/ROE), the justified P/B is 0.74x, which gives BDT 8.9 on end-2026F book of 13.40. EV/EBITDA: the same steady state as the DCF terminal implies 1.27x EBITDA after leases (2.14x including leases), which on 2027F EBITDA gives BDT 10.9. The P/B and EV/EBITDA legs are lower than the DCF because they apply the terminal-year returns from today, while the DCF captures the higher cash flows of 2027–30F, when capex and spectrum cash are below accounting charges. The EV/EBITDA leg is not independent of the DCF: it applies the same terminal steady state to 2027F EBITDA. We weight DCF 50% and the other two 25% each. Sum of the parts does not apply (no significant subsidiary).

Reconciliation with the price: at BDT 29.7 Robi trades at 3.7x 2027F EBITDA including leases and 2.22x book, against our base of 2.2x and 0.96x. Even a 1.5-point lower WACC lifts the DCF only to BDT 17.8. Holding our cash flows, the price is consistent with a cost of equity well below 12%, about where the market prices Grameenphone, or with a return on new capital well above the 16–18% Robi has reported. We do not change our inputs to close the gap.

A price war is the biggest risk (-30% to fair value); the renewal price is due before 10-Nov-2026

Each risk is tied to the line it moves and sized with a full model re-run (the claims row uses the equity bridge only). Because Robi's margins are thin, revenue risks matter most: flat ARPU cuts fair value 30.3% and 2027F EPS 14.8%. A 45% tax rate costs 8.9%, flat subscribers 8.8%, energy-driven network costs 6.1%, a weaker taka 5.2% and renewal at existing rates 2.9%. Losing every claim would cost 17.8%. The bear case combines these moves in 2027–28F and fades them by 2030F; it is below every single shock.

Dated catalysts: BTRC's final renewal price and payment terms for the 22.4MHz due on 10-Nov-2026; the 2026 annual results and dividend (the board met on 19-Feb-2026 last year) and the AGM (22-Apr-2026 last year) [4]; Q1-2027 results in May; the June 2027 budget (SIM tax, supplementary duty, operator tax rate); and hearings in the BTRC and NBR cases [1 p.212]. The Cirkle sub-brand replacing Airtel is a marketing change, not modelled.

• Renewal price: each BDT 10bn above our BDT 37.1bn base costs about BDT 0.4 a share (renewal at existing rates: BDT 13.5 vs 13.9).
• ARPU: Robi's revenue grew 7.1% in 9M-2026; growth below 4% in 2027 would point to the bear case.
• Margins: the 9M-2026 EBITDA margin was 53.7%; a return to the 2025 level (50.4%) would cut 2027F EBIT by about BDT 2.7bn.
• Dividend: a 2026 payout below 90% would signal cash kept for 5G and spectrum.
• Free float: 10%; any sell-down by Axiata or Bharti would change liquidity and index weight.

Model update: this report uses the audited statements to 31-Dec-2025 and the un-audited statements for the nine months to 30-Sep-2026, the latest period filed. We will update the model when the 2026 annual statements are filed (expected February 2027).

Data gaps, stated openly: Robi's quarterly investor-call transcripts and slides are not in our sources, so no management guidance is used. Robi's 2026 subscriber and ARPU figures are not in the interim statements; the 2026 subscriber base is a labelled assumption. The current portion of the spectrum payable is inside trade payables and is not separated. Pre-2023 history (2019–22) is not in the model, and the renewal terms for 2026 spectrum are not final.

FAQ

What is Robi Axiata's fair value?

Our fair value range is BDT 6.1–19.4 a share with a base of 12.8, from a DCF, a justified price-to-book and a justified EV/EBITDA, against a price of BDT 29.7 on 29-Oct-2026. The price is above the range; the main reason is our 17.1% cost of equity.

Why is Robi's profit so low compared with Grameenphone?

Scale. Network, spectrum and tower costs are largely fixed. In 2025 Robi's revenue was BDT 99.9bn against GP's 158.1bn; D&A was 31.5% of Robi's revenue, and its net margin 9.4% against GP's 18.7%.

How much will the 2026 spectrum renewal cost Robi?

Pro rata by MHz, Robi's 22.4MHz would cost about BDT 37.1bn at BTRC's proposed price and BDT 47.6bn at existing rates, as reported by The Business Standard. We assume ten yearly instalments; the final terms were not set when we wrote this.

Is Robi's dividend sustainable?

Yes at the current level. Robi paid out 98% of 2025 profit (BDT 1.75 a share). We forecast free cash flow after leases and spectrum covering a 95% payout 1.64x in 2027F and 1.27–1.80x after.

Who owns Robi?

Axiata Group of Malaysia owns 61.8% and Bharti Airtel of India 28.2%; the public and institutions hold 10.0% (September 2026).

What are the claims against Robi?

A BDT 8.7bn BTRC audit claim (injunction granted against a BDT 1.38bn deposit) and NBR claims of BDT 9.8bn (SIM-replacement tax and VAT rebates). Robi disputes all of them; we assume a 25% chance of losing, about BDT 0.78 a share.

Sources

1. Robi Axiata PLC Integrated Annual Report 2025 (MD&A, KPIs, audited consolidated statements and notes; 330 pages) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. Robi Axiata PLC condensed interim financial statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2026 (un-audited) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Robi Axiata PLC Integrated Annual Report 2024 (audited statements with 2023 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. DSE announcements for ROBI, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, Q1-Q3 results, credit ratings, CEO, Cirkle sub-brand, SmartPay PSP licence) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. AnalystBro market data: DSE:ROBI daily, weekly and monthly bars and DSEX weekly bars (chart_bars), 29/30-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction cut-off yields (10-year BGTB 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. The Financial Express, 'Mobile subscriptions go up by 0.65m in Aug' (BTRC data), 24-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. The Business Standard, 'Telcos seek deeper cuts in spectrum renewal prices', 27-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
9. The Business Standard, 'Budget FY27: Key measures and takeaways', Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
10. The Financial Express, 'AMTOB hails move to withdraw SIM tax outlined in budget', Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
11. Grameenphone Ltd audited financial statements, year to 31-Dec-2025 (peer figures) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
12. Grameenphone Ltd Annual Report 2025 (integrated report: subscribers, ARPU) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
13. AnalystBro, Grameenphone initiation report and model, 31-Oct-2026 (same market inputs) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
14. AnalystBro Robi model (model.xlsx): forecasts, valuation, scenarios, sensitivities · link · accessed 2026-10-31