Popular Life Insurance financial analysis: life fund down 40% since 2017 as maturities exceed premium (Oct 2026)

Investment considerations: maturities exceed premium and the life fund has fallen in 6 of the last 8 years

Updated 3-Nov-2026: added the Q3 2026 statements (premium by line, claims, the fair-value line, cash flow and life fund note), the business model and industry forces, the 2021-2025 fund walk with its adjustments, claims by line, the cash-flow reconciliation, interim results next to the actuarial surplus and bonus, IDRA 2024 market share, claim settlement and expense limit, Bangladesh Bank rates, the FY2025 key audit matters, and DSE events from 2021.

Popular Life Insurance PLC (Popular Life) is a Bangladeshi life insurer that sells individual savings policies, many of them Islamic (takaful) and micro-premium plans, through a commissioned field force. It has two subsidiaries, Popular Life Securities Limited and PLI Asset Management Limited [1 p.92]. In 2025 it wrote BDT 5,011.6m of gross premium and closed the year with a life fund of BDT 15,196.2m (consolidated) [1 p.115]. Its share capital is BDT 604.3m in 60.43m shares [1 p.173].

A life insurer's accounts work differently from an ordinary company's. Premium and investment income flow into the life fund; claims, commissions, other expenses, tax and the shareholders' dividend flow out of it [1 p.150] [1 p.152]. Once a year an actuary values the policy liabilities and declares a surplus, part of which belongs to shareholders [3 p.1]. EPS of BDT 1.47 for 2025 is that shareholders' portion, BDT 88.9m, divided by 60.43m shares [1 p.189]. The company reports NAV and EPS only once a year for the same reason [3 p.1].

The decade's story is one of a fund being drawn down. Claims and management expenses together exceeded gross premium in every year from 2017 to 2025, by between 0.5% and 77.6% of premium [2 p.102] [1 p.134] [12]. Investment income has not closed the gap, so the life fund fell in 6 of the 8 years from 2018 to 2025, from BDT 22,865m to BDT 15,196m [12]. The Q3 2026 statements took it to BDT 13,824.6m at 30-Sep-2026 [13 p.1]. Most of the outflow is maturity claims on long-term policies sold in earlier years: BDT 4,202.7m in 2025, equal to 83.9% of the year's gross premium [1 p.151] [12].

Business: twelve individual savings lines, Islamic plans the largest, first year premium 40% of the book

Popular Life runs twelve individual product lines, each with its own premium, claims and bank accounts [1 p.150] [1 p.182]. Al-Amin Bima, an Islamic savings plan, is the largest: BDT 541.4m of first year premium and BDT 1,067.8m of renewals in 2025, a third of gross premium [1 p.150]. The Janapriya and 'Akok' lines are smaller-premium plans; the quarterly statements group them as 'Micro Insurance', which was BDT 1,012.1m of the BDT 1,774.0m gross premium in H1 2026 [3 p.1]. Group business is negligible: BDT 0.9m of premium in 2025 [1 p.150].

Business model, in the filings' terms. What it sells: individual life savings policies in twelve lines, nine of them Islamic or micro-premium plans, plus negligible group cover; the 2025 revenue account splits gross premium into BDT 2,006.2m first year and BDT 3,004.5m renewal [1 p.150]. To whom: individual policyholders; the statements group the lines as 'Ordinary Life' and 'Micro Insurance' and name no customer above any threshold [1 p.186] [13 p.1]. How it earns: premium is pooled in the life fund with investment income, and once a year the actuary's surplus is split between policyholders' bonus and shareholders; for 2025 the surplus was Tk 148.26 crore, of which Tk 92.81 crore was earmarked for policyholders' bonus [1 p.94]. What it needs: a commissioned agent and development force (commission BDT 723.3m in 2025) and 1,623 employees at Dec-2025 [1 p.151] [1 p.186]. How it is funded: shareholders' capital of BDT 604.3m and the policyholders' life fund of BDT 15,196.2m (consolidated) at Dec-2025; no bank borrowing appears on the balance sheet [1 p.149]. Who controls it: sponsors and directors hold 23.70% [1 p.173].

The product mix is changing inside a shrinking total. First year premium fell 11.4% in 2025, to BDT 2,006.2m. Falls in Al-Baraka Islami Bima (BDT 79.3m from 142.2m), Janapriya Bima (BDT 144.0m from 239.3m) and Janapriya Khudra Akok (BDT 16.5m from 92.5m) outweighed a rise in Al-Amin Akok Bima (BDT 391.1m from 285.6m) [1 p.150]. Renewals moved the other way in the same lines: Al-Amin Akok renewals fell to BDT 190.2m from 388.9m, while Al-Amin Bima renewals rose to BDT 1,067.8m from 857.9m [1 p.150]. Almost all first year premium, BDT 1,879.2m, is on policies with premium terms of twelve years or more, and single-premium business was BDT 103.5m [1 p.150].

First year premium is a large share of the book: 40.0% of gross premium in 2025, against 26.6% at PRAGATILIF, 20.8% at DELTALIFE and 26.9% at NATLIFEINS, the highest of the four [1 p.150] [5 p.126] [6 p.17] [7 p.251] [12]. A book weighted to first year business pays more commission per taka of premium and depends on new sales to hold its premium level, which is why the fall in new business shows up quickly in total premium.

Distribution is through agents and a development (supervisory) organisation paid by commission, allowances and incentive bonuses [1 p.151]. Commission to insurance agents was BDT 443.3m in 2025 and other allowances and commission BDT 280.1m [1 p.151]. The auditor's qualification says part of the agents' commission was paid in cash, which does not comply with an IDRA circular [1 p.141]. Regulation frames the rest: the accounts follow the Insurance Act 2010, the Insurance Act 1938 in some cases and the Insurance Rules 1958 alongside IFRS [1 p.141].

Industry forces, from printed facts. Rivalry: IDRA lists 36 life insurers; Popular Life's 2024 gross premium of Tk 531.14 crore was 4.32% of the market, eighth largest, against 5.52% in 2023 [17]. Suppliers: reinsurance is small, BDT 3.1m of premium ceded in 2025 [1 p.150]; the agent force is the main input and its commission is paid partly in cash, the subject of the audit qualification [1 p.141]. Buyers: individual policyholders, none disclosed as material. Entry barriers: an IDRA licence under the Insurance Act 2010 [1 p.141]. Substitutes: none disclosed. The Q3 2026 notes give the company's own reason for lower collections: 'Perium Collection decreases in (January-September) 2026 in compare to (January-September)2025 because of world war situation has caused great damage to the world economy as well as the country economy' [13 p.1].

Premium: BDT 5.01bn in 2025, the same as 2017, after falling 21.9% and 5.6%

Gross premium has gone sideways to down for nine years. It was BDT 5,011.6m in 2017, jumped to BDT 8,039.8m in 2018 and BDT 8,083.6m in 2019, fell to BDT 5,908.6m in 2020, recovered to BDT 6,797.6m by 2023 and then fell two years running to BDT 5,011.6m in 2025 [2 p.102] [1 p.134]. The 2025 figure is within BDT 0.1m of 2017's. The filings do not explain the 2018-19 peak; the 2025 directors' review lists premium highlights without discussing the fall [1 p.115].

Persistency is the line to watch. Renewal premium in 2025 was 56.6% of the previous year's first year plus renewal premium [12], so roughly 43 taka in every 100 of the prior year's premium did not come back. The company does not print the IDRA key-indicator page (conservation ratio, lapse ratios by policy year) that PRAGATILIF, DELTALIFE and NATLIFEINS print [5 p.126] [6 p.17] [7 p.251]; we found no such page in the 2025 report, so this ratio is our own calculation from the revenue account [12].

In H1 2026 gross premium rose 1.1% to BDT 1,774.0m: first year premium BDT 761.4m (+1.2%) and renewals BDT 1,012.7m (+1.0%) [3 p.1]. Within that, 'Ordinary Life' first year premium rose 10.6% and 'Micro Insurance' fell 6.6% [3 p.1]. Q1 2026 gross premium derived from the half-year (H1 less Q2) is BDT 873.9m, matching the Q1 statements [4 p.1] [12].

Claims: maturities of BDT 4.20bn took claims to 90.3% of premium in 2025

Claims are the biggest outflow and most of them are maturities. Of BDT 4,527.3m of claims in 2025, BDT 4,202.7m was maturity claims, BDT 214.3m survival benefits, BDT 93.2m death claims and BDT 15.3m surrenders [1 p.151]. Maturities were 92.8% of claims, close to 2024's 93.1% [12]. These are policies sold ten to twenty years ago reaching term; their size depends on past sales, not on this year's business.

The claims ratio has swung with the maturity cycle: 124.1% of gross premium in 2017 and 114.7% in 2018, down to 57.5% in 2020, then 85.4% in 2022 and 90.3% in 2025 [2 p.102] [1 p.134] [12]. Each 10pp of claims ratio was about BDT 501m of 2025 premium [12]. In H1 2026 claims and surrenders rose 9.3% to BDT 1,412.7m, 79.6% of gross premium against 73.7% a year earlier [3 p.1] [12]. Claims paid in cash were BDT 1,412.8m against BDT 1,273.3m [3 p.1].

Outstanding claims on the balance sheet are small: BDT 32.2m at Dec-2025, of which BDT 31.0m maturity claims, against BDT 1.9m a year earlier [1 p.174]. The auditor lists claims as a key audit matter and says it contacted clients by telephone or in person to test payments [1 p.143]. The filings do not include a maturity schedule for the years ahead.

By line, Micro Insurance carried most of the claims: BDT 2,329.0m of BDT 4,527.3m in 2025 (51.4%), and 67.5% in 2021 [1 p.186] [2 p.151] [12]. Maturities in Micro Insurance were BDT 2,929.8m in 2021, BDT 3,404.5m in 2022, BDT 2,435.7m in 2023 and BDT 2,283.9m in 2025; in Ordinary Life they rose from BDT 886.1m in 2021 to BDT 1,918.8m in 2025 [2 p.151] [16 p.164] [15 p.163] [1 p.186]. The notes give no maturity schedule by cohort or product for 2026-2028 (searched: AR2025 notes 31 and 7, directors' report p.94, Q3 2026 notes) [1 p.186] [13 p.1]. IDRA's claims-lodged basis gives a settlement rate of 99.95% in 2024 and 99.98% in 2023 (Tk 387.04 crore settled of Tk 387.22 crore), against 65.94% for the life industry in 2024 [17].

Expenses: down to 37.7% of premium from 62.9% in 2018

Management expenses have come down faster than premium. They were BDT 1,887.1m in 2025, 37.7% of gross premium, against BDT 5,060.5m and 62.9% in 2018 [2 p.102] [1 p.134] [12]. In 2025 commission was BDT 723.3m (14.4% of premium) and other expenses of management BDT 1,163.8m (23.2%) [1 p.151] [12].

The larger items in other expenses were salaries of BDT 442.8m, office rent of BDT 51.4m, gratuity of BDT 86.0m, incentive bonus (development) of BDT 74.2m and depreciation on fixed assets of BDT 74.4m [1 p.151] [1 p.152]. Commission fell with first year premium; salaries rose 3.9% [1 p.151]. The annual report does not print its allowable management expense limit; IDRA's annual report does. For 2024 IDRA shows actual management expenses of Tk 210.35 crore against an allowed Tk 239.38 crore, Tk 29.03 crore (12.1%) inside the limit [17]. IDRA's actual figure equals the BDT 2,103.5m in the company's 2025 ratio table [1 p.134] [17]. The 2025 comparison is not yet published by IDRA (not in our data at 3-Nov-2026).

In H1 2026 commission and allowances fell 16.5% to BDT 383.9m and other management expenses were flat at BDT 404.6m; total management expenses were 44.4% of gross premium against 49.5% [3 p.1] [12]. One inconsistency: the 2025 report's ratio table gives 2024 management expenses of BDT 2,103.5m, while the revenue account adds to BDT 2,119.7m (commission BDT 798.2m plus other BDT 1,321.6m) [1 p.134] [1 p.151] [12].

Life fund: -33.5% since 2017, with BDT 838m lost in 2025

The life fund is the pool of assets backing policy liabilities. Figures in this note are from the consolidated statements; the company-only life fund is BDT 15,126.8m at Dec-2025 and BDT 15,964.1m at Dec-2024 [1 p.158] [1 p.160]. Popular Life's was BDT 22,865.4m at end-2017 and BDT 15,196.2m (consolidated) at end-2025 [2 p.102] [1 p.134]. The only rises in that period were in 2020 (+3.7%) and 2021 (+2.1%), when claims were 57.5% and 68.0% of premium [12]. The fund was 3.0 years of premium in 2025, against 4.6 years in 2017 [12].

The 2025 walk is in two steps. The revenue account took the fund from BDT 16,034.2m (consolidated) to BDT 15,075.5m, a fall of BDT 958.8m: premium of BDT 5,008.5m net of reinsurance, interest, dividends and rents of BDT 619.0m and other income of BDT 96.2m, against claims of BDT 4,527.3m, management expenses of BDT 1,887.1m and BDT 268.1m of tax, deferred tax, the fair-value line and the cash dividend [1 p.150] [1 p.152] [12]. Our recomputation of the closing balance matches to BDT 0.1m [12]. Note 5(a) then adds a revaluation-reserve transfer of BDT 24.1m, a reinsurance adjustment of BDT 12.0m and a 'years adjustment' of BDT 82.3m to reach the balance-sheet BDT 15,196.2m (consolidated); it records the revenue-account change as BDT 956.3m, BDT 2.5m less than the revenue account itself [1 p.174] [12]. The 2024 'years adjustment' was minus BDT 108.1m [1 p.174]; the 2024 report labels the same BDT 108.1m 'Adjustment Note - 38' in the consolidated note 5(a), and note 38 says the DSE, CSE and TREC investments, transferred to the subsidiary PLSL in 2018, were reclassified 'by adjusting the investment value and revaluation surplus on the investment in DSE membership against the Life Fund balance' [14 p.167] [14 p.182]. The 2025 report gives no explanation for the plus BDT 82.3m (searched: notes 5, 5(a), 38) [1 p.174] [1 p.188].

Other income of BDT 96.2m in 2025, against BDT 8.7m, was mostly BDT 80.2m of profit on sale of shares booked by the parent under other income, with BDT 11.2m of investment income at PLI Asset Management [1 p.186].

What drives the fund from here is arithmetic the filings already show: premium of about BDT 5.0bn a year, investment income of about BDT 0.6bn, and claims plus expenses that were BDT 6.4bn in 2025 [12]. When maturities fall, as in 2020, the fund can grow; when they rise, as in 2025 and Q3 2026, it shrinks.

Over five years the company-only fund (note 5) walked from BDT 17,561.3m to BDT 15,126.8m. Each year's opening equals the prior closing. The revenue account added BDT 295.9m in 2021 and took out BDT 1,260.8m, 319.2m, 457.2m and 955.6m in 2022-2025 [16 p.150] [15 p.151] [14 p.167] [1 p.174] [12]. Adjustments outside the revenue account were plus BDT 126.4m in 2022 (a BDT 162.6m 'years adjustment made of fair value of reserves' less BDT 36.3m for note 38), plus BDT 28.9m in 2023, minus BDT 108.1m in 2024 and plus BDT 94.2m in 2025 [16 p.150] [15 p.151] [1 p.174]. The 2023 report explains a related revaluation-reserve 'years adjustment' of minus BDT 181.6m: a 2019 revaluation of a Mohammadpur building 'should have been written Taka 22,511,537 but mistakenly it was written Taka 213,859,961' [15 p.151].

Investments: property is 41.2% of invested assets and income was 3.86% of the fund

The fund is invested in four blocks. At Dec-2025, house property (land and buildings, at cost less depreciation including revaluation) was BDT 6,575.3m, 41.2% of invested assets; treasury bonds BDT 4,186.5m (26.2%); shares and debentures BDT 3,365.3m (21.1%); and bank deposits and cash BDT 1,822.2m (11.4%) [1 p.149] [12]. By Jun-2026 short-term (STD) deposits were BDT 2,206.7m against BDT 950.2m, outstanding premium was BDT 470.1m against BDT 2,618.8m, and shares were BDT 4,091.0m [3 p.1].

Investment income is low relative to the fund. Interest, dividends and rents were BDT 619.0m in 2025, 3.86% of the opening life fund, against 3.71% in 2024 [1 p.150] [12]. House property earns rent only on the part that is let; the accrued rental income at Dec-2025 was BDT 1.1m [1 p.180]. In H1 2026 interest, dividends and rents were BDT 276.7m, flat on H1 2025, and profit on sale of shares fell to BDT 38.3m from 60.4m [3 p.1].

Rates for comparison: Bangladesh Bank's policy rate was 10.00% at Dec-2024 and Dec-2025 and 9.50% from 30-Jul-2026; the December T-bill yield was 11.59% in 2024 and 10.48% in 2025; the 364-day T-bill cut-off was 8.60% on 2-Nov-2026 and the 10-year bond cut-off 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026 [18]. Against these, interest, dividends and rents were 3.71% and 3.86% of the opening life fund in 2024 and 2025 [12].

Asset quality has two soft spots, and one item that runs the other way. The Form AA schedule prints its column headers as 'Book value' then 'Market value', but the second column is the book value: it ties to the balance sheet (shares BDT 3,365.3m, house property BDT 6,575.3m, total BDT 21,261.9m, equal to total assets) [1 p.155] [1 p.149]. Read that way, shares and debentures had a market value of BDT 3,762.6m, BDT 397.3m or 11.8% above book [1 p.155] [12], while house property had a market value of BDT 3,754.7m against a written-down value of BDT 6,575.3m [1 p.155]. The first soft spot is deposits with non-bank lenders: BDT 275.8m of the company's BDT 605.0m of fixed deposits (45.6%) sit with five NBFIs, including BDT 110.0m with Prime Finance, BDT 91.3m with International Leasing and BDT 38.5m with First Lease [1 p.182] [12]; the provision for FDRs is BDT 11.3m [1 p.175]. The second is private placements: BDT 135.0m invested in five companies that never listed is fully provided for, and the company has filed recovery suits [1 p.189]. Sundry debtors of BDT 172.9m carry a BDT 76.1m provision [1 p.175] [1 p.181].

Surplus and dividend: EPS down to BDT 1.47, the 20% cash dividend kept

The actuarial surplus has fallen with the fund. It was BDT 3,495.5m in 2017 and BDT 1,482.6m in 2025, the lowest of the nine years [2 p.102] [1 p.134]. The ratio tables print a shareholders' portion equal to exactly 10% of surplus for 2017-2023, then BDT 153.2m for 2024 (7.2%) and BDT 135.2m for 2025 (9.1%) [12]. EPS uses different figures: note 39 gives the 2025 shareholders' portion as BDT 88.9m (EPS BDT 1.47) and 2024's as BDT 153.2m (EPS BDT 2.53) [1 p.189]. The report does not reconcile BDT 88.9m with the BDT 135.2m in its own ratio table [1 p.134] [1 p.189].

The directors' reports give the surplus and the part allocated to policyholders' bonus: Tk 272.97 crore and Tk 197.83 crore for 2021, Tk 199.43 crore and Tk 131.68 crore for 2022, Tk 222.64 crore and Tk 131.79 crore for 2023, Tk 207.80 crore and Tk 130.31 crore for 2024, and Tk 148.26 crore and Tk 92.81 crore for 2025 [2 p.72] [16 p.78] [15 p.78] [14 p.91] [1 p.94]. The bonus share was 59.2-72.5% of the surplus [12]. The reports do not print the valuation basis (interest rate, mortality table or changes in method) or reversionary bonus rates per Tk 1,000 sum assured (searched: directors' report, notes, 'mortality', 'reversionary', 'bonus rate' in AR2021-AR2025). The auditor's key audit matter says it 'reviewed the actuarial report and assessed the reasonableness of the assumptions' [1 p.142]. The reports do not reconcile the remainder of the surplus after bonus with the BDT 88.9m shareholders' portion in note 39 [1 p.189].

Interim results are not a guide to the annual surplus. The DSE posts gave H1 deficits in every year from 2021 to 2026, from BDT 2,358.19m (2022) to BDT 26.95m (2026), while the actuarial surplus stayed between Tk 148 crore and Tk 273 crore [19] [20] [8] [12]. The 2022 nine-month deficit, BDT 446.07m, was smaller than that year's H1 deficit of BDT 2,358.19m [19].

Dividends have been steady in cash. The board paid 40% in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021, 20% in 2019, 38% in 2022, 37% in 2023 and 20% in each of 2024 and 2025, as printed in the ratio tables [2 p.102] [1 p.134]. The revenue account confirms the cash paid: BDT 223.6m in 2024 (the 37% for 2023) and BDT 120.9m in 2025 (the 20% for 2024) [1 p.152]. The 2025 dividend of BDT 2.00 a share is 136% of EPS of BDT 1.47; dividends are paid out of the life fund, so they add to the fund's outflow [1 p.92] [1 p.152]. The board says it took account of the actuarial valuation and the state of the life fund when recommending the dividend [1 p.92].

Multiples, stated as facts. At BDT 51.2 on 29-Oct-2026 the shares trade at 34.8x FY2025 EPS and 0.66x the company's NAV per share of BDT 78.10, with a cash dividend yield of 3.91% [11] [1 p.189] [12]. Year-end P/E was 18.0x for 2023, 20.2x for 2024 and 28.2x for 2025 on each year's reported EPS [11] [8] [12]. The price is 23.7% below its 52-week high of BDT 67.1 [11] [12].

Balance sheet and audit: BDT 2.6bn of premium due at year end, and a qualified opinion

Outstanding premium is the largest swing item. It was BDT 2,999.5m at Dec-2024 and BDT 2,618.8m at Dec-2025, 17.2% of the life fund and more than half of the year's gross premium [1 p.149] [12]. The accounting policy recognises premium due at the year end, within the grace period, when it is collected by 31 January [1 p.168]; note 21 says the amount was realised or adjusted by the close of the audit [1 p.181]. The auditor's second qualification points to the same item [1 p.141]. By Jun-2026 the balance was BDT 470.1m and by Sep-2026 BDT 340.3m [3 p.1] [13 p.1].

Cash flow from operations was negative in 2025: minus BDT 1,139.5m for the company (NOCFPS minus BDT 18.86) and minus BDT 1,110.6m consolidated, against minus BDT 208.4m and minus BDT 303.2m in 2024 [1 p.189]. It turned positive in 2026: BDT 633.7m in H1 (NOCFPS BDT 10.49) and NOCFPS of BDT 21.85 for nine months [3 p.1] [8]. Advance income tax is large: BDT 1,461.3m at Dec-2025 against a tax provision of BDT 1,387.2m [1 p.181] [1 p.148].

The direct cash-flow statement shows where the gap sits. In 2025 premium received was BDT 5,392.2m against gross premium of BDT 5,011.6m; the BDT 380.6m difference matches the fall in outstanding premium from BDT 2,999.5m to BDT 2,618.8m [1 p.157] [1 p.149] [12]. Claims paid were BDT 4,497.0m, tax paid BDT 426.3m and other operating payments BDT 1,675.6m, giving minus BDT 1,110.6m [1 p.157]. Interest, dividends and rent received, BDT 623.6m, are shown under investing, not operating [1 p.157]. In the nine months to Sep-2026 premium received was BDT 4,812.7m against gross premium of BDT 2,534.9m; outstanding premium fell to BDT 340.3m at 30-Sep-2026 and the reconciliation shows a BDT 3,265.9m change in receivables and other current assets, giving operating cash flow of BDT 1,320.6m (NOCFPS BDT 21.85) [13 p.1].

The audit opinion on FY2025 is qualified on two points: cash payment of agents' commission contrary to an IDRA circular, and the outstanding premium collected after the year end [1 p.141]. The auditor of the subsidiary PLI Asset Management also gave a modified opinion [1 p.141]. DSE news shows a qualified opinion with Other Matters for FY2024 as well [8]. The report was signed on 27-Jun-2026 [1 p.147]. Related-party dealings disclosed are with the two subsidiaries and with PHP Automobiles Limited, which shares two directors; those directors abstained [1 p.188].

The FY2025 report has no emphasis-of-matter paragraph; it has an 'Other Matters' paragraph on PLI Asset Management's modified opinion and five key audit matters [s1 p.141-144]. In the auditor's words: premium income, where 'Given the important nature, connections to other items to the financial statements and sensitivity of the item we believe this area pose high level of risk'; valuation of the life fund, which 'involves complex and subjective judgments about future events, both internal and external to the business, for which small changes in assumptions can result in material impacts to the valuation of these liabilities'; the reserve for fair value of shares, which 'might be prone to misreporting as large unreported fall in the value of any holding may wipe out the value of the portfolio and hamper the distribution capability of the company' (balance minus BDT 98.9m); outstanding claims and claim payments, which 'involved significant management judgment and risk of understatement' and 'In extreme scenario these items may have reputational threat and going concern implications for the company'; and the deferred tax liability of BDT 723.5m, where 'Significant judgment is required' [1 p.142] [1 p.143] [1 p.144]. The qualification cites circular no. '1703/2017-938' (printed partly in Bengali script) and does not name agents or amounts [1 p.141].

Peers: the one premium decline and the highest claims ratio of the four compared

The peer table uses each company's FY2025 annual report and quotes the labels they print. PRAGATILIF, DELTALIFE and NATLIFEINS print the IDRA Key Financial Indicators page, with 'Claims Paid' and 'Management Expenses'; Popular Life does not, so its figures come from the revenue account: claims under policies (including provision for claims due or intimated) less reinsurance, and commission plus other expenses of management [1 p.151] [5 p.126] [6 p.17] [7 p.251]. The bases are close but not identical; gaps below a few points are within the difference in bases.

Among these four, Popular Life is the only one whose gross premium fell in 2025 (-5.6%), against 14.7% at PRAGATILIF, 7.9% at DELTALIFE and 11.1% at NATLIFEINS [12]. Its claims ratio of 90.3% was the highest of the four, 8.6pp above DELTALIFE's 81.7%, and its management expense ratio of 37.7% was the highest, 6.9pp above PRAGATILIF's 30.7% [12]. Renewal premium fell 1.3% at Popular Life and rose 6.3-18.4% at the others [12].

IDRA's 2024 figures put the four on one basis. Popular Life's IDRA premium fell 21.9% in 2024 while DELTALIFE, PRAGATILIF and NATLIFEINS grew 3.1-12.8%; its claim settlement of 99.95% was the highest of the four; and its management expenses were 12.1% inside the allowed limit, against 1.3-14.6% inside for the peers and 1.2% over for the industry [17] [12].

2026 so far: a smaller H1 deficit, then a BDT 1.32bn Q3 deficit

The half-year statements show premium flat, claims up and a smaller deficit. Gross premium rose 1.1% to BDT 1,774.0m; claims and surrenders rose 9.3%; commission fell 16.5% [3 p.1] [12]. The balance transferred to the life fund was minus BDT 26.9m against minus BDT 319.5m [3 p.1]. The fair-value line on shares accounts for much of the difference: it reduced total expenses by BDT 198.7m in H1 2026 and added BDT 140.7m in H1 2025; excluding that line the balance was minus BDT 225.7m against minus BDT 178.8m [3 p.1] [12]. The fund was BDT 15,238.0m at 30-Jun-2026 [3 p.1].

Q3 2026 was announced on 28-Oct-2026: a deficit of BDT 1,320.60m for July-September against BDT 187.64m a year earlier, a nine-month deficit of BDT 1,444.79m against BDT 271.30m, and a life fund of BDT 13,824.64m at 30-Sep-2026 against BDT 15,810.33m [8]. The announced figures do not reconcile: H1 (minus BDT 26.95m) plus Q3 (minus BDT 1,320.60m) is minus BDT 1,347.55m, BDT 97.24m less than the announced nine-month deficit; in 2025 the same check is out by BDT 235.80m [8] [12]. Q1 plus Q2 does match H1 in both years [12]. The Q3 statements show part of the reason: the 'For the 3rd Quarter' column prints the same fair-value, deferred tax, income tax and dividend figures as the nine-month column [13 p.1].

The Q3 2026 statements give the lines. Gross premium for July-September was BDT 760.9m against BDT 1,292.2m (-41.1%): first year premium BDT 406.1m against 589.2m and renewals BDT 354.8m against 703.0m [13 p.1] [12]. For nine months gross premium fell 16.8% to BDT 2,534.9m; Micro Insurance renewals fell to BDT 842.1m from 1,015.3m and Ordinary Life renewals to BDT 525.4m from 690.4m [13 p.1]. Claims and surrenders were BDT 1,525.1m in the quarter against BDT 1,025.7m and BDT 2,937.8m for nine months against BDT 2,318.3m, 115.9% of nine-month premium [13 p.1] [12]. Of the BDT 1,133.0m wider Q3 deficit, lower premium accounts for BDT 531.3m, higher claims BDT 499.4m, the fair-value line BDT 356.0m and income tax BDT 139.5m, BDT 26.0m lower interest, dividend and rent income, offset by BDT 217.7m lower management expenses, BDT 146.6m more profit on sale of shares and BDT 53.7m lower deferred tax [13 p.1] [12].

Three printing points stand out. Note 7 calculates a consolidated fair-value gain of BDT 224.96m for nine months (parent BDT 234.58m: closing BDT 53.4m against opening minus BDT 181.2m; the two subsidiaries minus BDT 4.8m each), yet the revenue account adds BDT 224.96m to total expenses; in H1 the same line reduced expenses by BDT 198.7m [13 p.1] [3 p.1]. The life fund note takes BDT 1,389.9m from the revenue account against the BDT 1,444.8m balance printed in the revenue account, and its 2025 column opens at BDT 16,582.7m, the 1-Jan-2024 balance in the annual report, not the BDT 16,034.2m of 1-Jan-2025 [13 p.1] [1 p.174]. Note (f) says 'The company did not pay dividend to its shareholders during the interim period', while the cash flow shows dividend paid of BDT 103.2m and dividend distribution tax of BDT 17.7m [13 p.1]. Note (l) says 'No related party transaction occured in the Accounting period' [13 p.1].

The Q1 2026 figures were released on 28-Jun-2026, the day after the board approved the FY2025 accounts, and revised the same day to a surplus of BDT 10.77m [8]. The H1 2026 note on the life fund adds BDT 34.2m 'transferred from life revenue account', while the revenue account shows minus BDT 26.9m; the note does not explain the difference [3 p.1].

Governance: sponsors hold 23.7%, qualified opinions for FY2022-FY2025, one building decision in 24 months

Sponsors and directors held 23.70% of the shares at Dec-2025, institutions 20.65% and the general public 55.65% [1 p.173]. The board has 13 members, five of them independent [1 p.92]. In Dec-2024 the company disclosed that 3,853,554 shares of the late sponsor and former chairman Hasan Ahmed were to be transmitted to his successors under a succession certificate [8].

We swept 24 months of DSE company news (1-Nov-2024 to 1-Nov-2026) for board decisions. The one capital decision is dated 20-May-2026: the board decided to build a joint-venture multi-storied building on the company's 115.56-decimal plot at Badda, Gulshan, Dhaka [8]. No partner, cost or timetable was disclosed. The other board items were results, dividends, record dates and the auditor's qualified opinions for FY2024 and FY2025 [8]. NCR's insurer rating was AAA / ST-1 with a stable outlook in both Dec-2024 and Dec-2025 [8].

Reporting has been late. The FY2024 accounts and Q1 2025 were considered on 28-Jun-2025, and the FY2025 accounts and Q1 2026 on 27-Jun-2026 [8]. The FY2025 AGM was set for 22-Sep-2026 (passed), with the 20% cash dividend and a record date of 20-Jul-2026; the outcome is not posted in the DSE news we read [8]. The FY2024 dividend was reported disbursed on 3-Nov-2025 [8].

The earlier DSE record shows the same late pattern. The FY2021 accounts were approved with Q1 and Q2 2022 on 28-Jul-2022, the FY2022 accounts with Q1 and Q2 2023 on 10-Aug-2023, and the FY2023 accounts on 11-Jun-2024 [19] [20]. Cash dividends were 40% for 2021 (record date 25-Aug-2022, disbursed 3-Nov-2022), 38% for 2022 (record date 4-Sep-2023, disbursed 6-Nov-2023) and 37% for 2023, whose record date was moved from 25-Jul-2024 to 28-Jul-2024 'Due to unavoidable circumstances' [19] [20] [8]. The 28-Jun-2026 Q1 post first gave 'Life Fund was Tk. 10,772,430.00' for the quarter and was revised the same day to a 'surplus' of BDT 10.77m; the post does not give a reason [8].

What's next: the FY2026 valuation, the year-end premium balance and the share book

There is no forecast in this note. These are dated events after 31-Oct-2026 that bear on the lines, each with its source. The Q3 2026 statements are discussed above.

Direction, from history only. Maturity claims are the main line moving the fund: in 2020, the one year when claims were below 60% of premium, the fund grew BDT 632.9m [12]. In Q3 2026 claims were 200.4% of the quarter's gross premium [13 p.1] [12]. The joint-venture building approved on 20-May-2026 concerns the house-property line; no partner, cost or date has been disclosed [8]. LDC graduation, now 24-Nov-2029 after the UN General Assembly decision of 29-Oct-2026 [9] [10], touches the company only through interest rates and household incomes; nothing in its filings links it directly.

Risks: maturities, premium decline and the quality of reporting matter most

Each risk is tied to the line it moves and to the evidence in the filings.

Key questions: the Q3 deficit, new business and the audit qualifications

For shareholders, returns come from the shareholders' portion of the actuarial surplus and the cash dividend paid from it. Both depend on the same lines as the fund: maturities, premium, expenses and investment income. In 2025 the surplus was BDT 1,482.6m, EPS BDT 1.47 and the dividend BDT 2.00 a share [1 p.134] [1 p.189] [1 p.92]. These are facts about the business, not a view on the share price.

FAQ

How does Popular Life Insurance calculate EPS?

EPS is the shareholders' portion of the actuarial surplus divided by 60.43m shares: BDT 88.9m and BDT 1.47 for 2025, BDT 153.2m and BDT 2.53 for 2024 [1 p.189].

Why is Popular Life's life fund falling?

Claims plus management expenses exceeded gross premium in every year from 2017 to 2025; in 2025 claims were 90.3% of premium, mostly maturities [1 p.134] [1 p.151] [12].

How big is the life fund now?

BDT 15,196.2m (consolidated) at Dec-2025, BDT 15,238.0m at Jun-2026 and BDT 13,824.6m at Sep-2026 [1 p.134] [3 p.1] [13 p.1].

What did the auditor qualify?

Cash payment of agents' commission contrary to an IDRA circular, and outstanding premium collected after the 2025 year end [1 p.141].

What dividend did Popular Life declare for 2025?

20% cash, BDT 2.00 a share, with a record date of 20-Jul-2026 [8].

How does Popular Life compare with peers?

In 2025 its gross premium fell 5.6% while PRAGATILIF, DELTALIFE and NATLIFEINS grew 7.9-14.7%, and its claims ratio of 90.3% was the highest of the four [12].

Why did Popular Life's premium fall in 2026?

Nine-month gross premium fell 16.8% to BDT 2,534.9m. The company's note says collections fell 'because of world war situation has caused great damage to the world economy as well as the country economy' [13 p.1].

Sources

1. Popular Life Insurance PLC Annual Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
2. Popular Life Insurance Company Limited Annual Report 2021 (ratio analysis 2017-2021) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
3. Popular Life Insurance PLC unaudited quarterly statements, six months to 30-Jun-2026 (single scanned page) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
4. Popular Life Insurance PLC unaudited quarterly statements, three months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
5. Pragati Life Insurance PLC Annual Report 2025 (Key Financial Indicators) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
6. Delta Life Insurance Company Ltd. Annual Report 2025 (Key Financial Indicators) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
7. National Life Insurance PLC Annual Report 2025 (Key Financial Indicators) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
8. Dhaka Stock Exchange company news archive for POPULARLIF, 1-Nov-2024 to 1-Nov-2026 (company disclosures) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
9. The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
10. The Business Standard, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
11. AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:POPULARLIF daily and monthly bars to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
12. AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
13. Popular Life Insurance PLC unaudited consolidated financial statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2026 (single newspaper-style page) · link · accessed 2026-11-03
14. Popular Life Insurance PLC Annual Report 2024 · link · accessed 2026-11-03
15. Popular Life Insurance Company Limited Annual Report 2023 · link · accessed 2026-11-03
16. Popular Life Insurance Company Limited Annual Report 2022 · link · accessed 2026-11-03
17. Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA), Annual Report 2024-25: Annex 10 life gross premium and market share, Annex 14 life claims and settlement, Annex 16 life management expense actual vs allowed; pipeline/sector_data/insurance/life_*.csv · link · accessed 2026-11-03
18. Bangladesh Bank: policy (repo) rate history from MPC resolutions and Monetary Policy Statements (sector_data/rates/bd_policy_rate_bb_history.csv); treasury auction cut-off yields (BB treasury page); Scheduled Banks Statistics Table-102 deposit rate; IMF MFS T-bill yield (BB-reported) · link · accessed 2026-11-03
19. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive, POPULARLIF posts 2-Nov-2021 to 1-Nov-2023 · link · accessed 2026-11-03
20. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive, POPULARLIF posts 2-Nov-2023 to 31-Oct-2024 · link · accessed 2026-11-03