Olympic Industries valuation report: fair value BDT 50.2–96.8 (Oct 2026)

Biscuit volume is growing again but margins are flat at 23.9%; fair value range BDT 50-97

Olympic Industries is Bangladesh's largest listed biscuit maker. Energy Plus, Tip and its other biscuits, with confectionery, cakes and snacks, made BDT 27,083.5mn, 97.7% of FY2025 revenue (year to June 2025); batteries made the rest [1 p.42]. It sold 127,582 tonnes of biscuits and confectionery in FY2025, up 9.8%, but revenue per tonne fell 3.1% to about BDT 212,300 [1 p.42]. Gross margin was 23.9% in FY2025 against 31.9% in FY2020 [2 p.47]: wheat flour, sugar, palm oil and a weaker taka took eight points of margin in FY2021-22, and the company has not won them back in a market where Pran, Haque, Romania (Square) and Bisk Club price hard.

FY2026 (to June 2026) EPS was BDT 10.00 against 10.06, by the DSE announcement of 08-Oct-2026; the audited statements are not yet filed [4]. The nine months to March 2026 showed revenue up 5.3% to BDT 22,565mn but the March quarter's gross margin at 21.7% against 24.5% a year earlier, and a higher tax charge [3 p.2]. The board recommended a 35% cash dividend (BDT 3.50) [4]. The company is spending heavily: BDT 1,312mn of capex in nine months, a BDT 500mn term loan, land around its Narayanganj factories and new chocolate, cookies, chanachur, carton and powder-drink lines [3 p.4] [1 p.50] [4].

Our base case grows biscuit volume 5% a year and price per tonne 3.0%-4.0%, holds materials at about 65% of sales and gives EPS of BDT 9.83 in FY2027F and BDT 11.74 in FY2029F [7]. At a 16.4% cost of equity that gives a base fair value of BDT 71.4 (DCF 81.0, dividend model 57.1) and a range of BDT 50.2-96.8. The price of BDT 134.9 on 29-Oct-2026 [5] is above the whole range: it implies a cost of equity of about 11.3%, or perpetual growth of 14.7% at our 16.1% WACC [7].

Biscuits are 98% of sales; tonnes rose 9.8% in FY2025 but revenue per tonne fell 3.1%

Olympic makes biscuits (Energy Plus, Tip and others), candy and confectionery, cakes, noodles, snacks and SIPO saline and powder drinks at factories in Kanchpur (Lolati, Kutubpur) and Madanpur, Narayanganj [1 p.50]. Revenue note 26 splits biscuits and confectionery (BDT 27,083.5mn, 127,581.6 tonnes) from batteries (BDT 637.5mn, 57.3 million pieces) [1 p.42]. Exports were BDT 430.8mn, 1.6% of revenue [1 p.42]. It sells through distributors to grocery stores across the country, with 3,323 sales staff at June 2025 against 3,108 a year earlier [1 p.48]; selling and distribution cost 14.3% of revenue in FY2025, including BDT 968.9mn of advertising [1 p.44].

Volume is the first driver of revenue. Tonnes sold fell from 118,706 in FY2023 to 116,219 in FY2024 as high inflation squeezed household budgets, then rose 9.8% in FY2025 [2 p.29] [1 p.42]. Installed capacity for biscuits, confectionery and saline is 163,728 tonnes, so sales were about 77.9% of capacity in FY2025 [1 p.48]. The board approved a chanachur line (6,600 t), a multi-functional chocolate plant (3,300 t), a multi-colour cookies line (9,048 t) and a powder-drink line (4,427 t) [1 p.50], plus two carton plants in 2026 [4]. We model volume growth of 5%, 5% and 4.5% in FY2027F-FY2029F: above population growth because of the new lines, below FY2025 because rivals are adding capacity too [7].

Price is the second driver. Revenue per tonne rose 2.6% in FY2024 [2 p.29] and fell 3.1% in FY2025 [1 p.42]; management describes a 'shrinkflation' strategy, cutting pack weights rather than raising shelf prices [2 p.26]. Competition sets the ceiling. Pran (AMCL), Haque, Romania and Bisk Club sell in the same price points, so we assume price per tonne grows 3.0%, 3.5% and 4.0%, below inflation. Market size and shares are not published by any T1 source we could reach; we treat them as a gap rather than quote one outlet.

Materials are 65% of sales: each 1% rise in wheat, sugar, oil and packaging costs cuts EBIT by about BDT 205mn

Materials consumed were BDT 17,996.7mn in FY2025, 64.9% of revenue, against 64.5% in FY2024 [1 p.42]. The main inputs are wheat flour, sugar, palm oil and vegetable fats, milk powder and packaging; most are imported or priced off imports, so the taka/US dollar rate moves them as much as world prices do. Factory overhead and stores were another 9.6% of revenue, including wages and salaries of BDT 1,447.8mn and power and fuel of BDT 681.3mn [1 p.43]. Depreciation in cost of sales was BDT 474.6mn [1 p.42].

The FY2021-22 shock shows the sensitivity: gross margin fell from 29.3% to 23.0% when wheat and edible oil prices jumped and the taka began to fall [2 p.47]. It has been 23.8-23.9% since. In the nine months to March 2026 cost of sales was 76.0% of revenue and the March quarter alone 78.3% [3 p.2]. We hold materials at 65.0% of revenue in FY2027F, easing 0.2 points a year as new lines and pricing catch up, which gives gross margin of 23.6%, 23.7% and 23.9% [7]. The bear case uses the F08 stress: commodities +20% and the taka 10% weaker in taka terms, of which we assume half is recovered in price within the year, so materials cost +10% in FY2027F and +5% in FY2028F; the bull case takes the same amounts off. The FY2022 episode lost about six points of gross margin, roughly 9% of materials not recovered, so +10% is a severe but precedented year.

Below gross profit, selling and distribution is the second big cost: 14.3% of revenue in FY2025 and 14.9% in the nine months to March 2026 [1 p.10] [3 p.2]. Trade promotions and advertising rise when rivals discount. We use 14.7% in the base and ±0.5 points in the scenarios. Administrative cost is 1.35% of revenue. Other income, mostly interest on bank deposits and fixed deposits, was BDT 576.0mn in FY2025 [1 p.45]; we earn 8.5% on the cash and investments, near the 8.79% one-year T-bill yield [6]. Tax is 27.5% against 25.3% in FY2025 and 28.9% in the nine months [3 p.2].

EPS has been BDT 9-10 for three years; FY2026 was BDT 10.00 on DSE-announced figures

EPS was BDT 10.13 in FY2020 and 10.19 in FY2021, fell to 6.03 in FY2022 and recovered to 9.17 in FY2024 [2 p.47] and 10.06 in FY2025 [1 p.10]. Return on average equity ranged from 13.0% (FY2022) to 23.3% (FY2021) and was 17.4% in FY2025 [7]. For FY2026 the DSE announcement gives EPS of BDT 10.00, NAV per share of BDT 69.35 and operating cash flow per share of BDT 11.79 (DSE announcement, audited statements not yet filed) [4]. Quarterly EPS was 2.86, 3.12 and 1.42 for the September, December and March quarters, so the June quarter was about 2.59 [4].

Our FY2026E column uses the nine months as reported, a June quarter grown at the nine-month rate (revenue BDT 29,190mn, estimate) and the announced profit of BDT 1,999mn; the implied tax rate is 26.0% [7]. FY2027F EPS of BDT 9.83 is slightly below FY2026: we assume the margin squeeze of the March quarter holds, a full year of interest on the BDT 500mn term loan, and lower yields on cash. Note: this model will be updated when the audited FY2026 annual report is filed.

Capex of BDT 1.8bn in FY2027F keeps the payout near 40%; cash and investments are BDT 25 a share

At 31-Mar-2026 the company held cash of BDT 1,247.1mn and investments (mostly fixed deposits) of BDT 5,064.0mn, against short-term loans of BDT 438.0mn and a BDT 500mn term loan from Bangladesh Infrastructure Finance Fund (BIFFL) for the expansion of units 1 and 2 [3 p.1] [4]. Capex in the nine months was BDT 1,312.4mn against BDT 52.0mn a year earlier [3 p.4], and since then the board has approved more land at Lolati, Madanpur and Araihazar and carton-making machinery [4]. We assume capex of BDT 1,800mn, 1,400mn and 1,200mn in FY2027F-FY2029F, a labelled assumption.

Payout was 52-77% of EPS in FY2020-FY2023, then 10.9% in FY2024, 29.8% in FY2025 and 35% in FY2026 [2 p.29] [4]. We use 40% while capex is high. Operating cash flow covered profit 1.14x in FY2025 and 1.18x in FY2026 (DSE NOCFPS) [4]. No rights issue, stock dividend or bond has been announced in the last 24 months [4]; the company invested BDT 2mn as a sponsor of the proposed Tripti Industries PLC (January 2026), too small to model. The price on 29-Oct-2026 still carries the FY2026 dividend (record date 04-Nov-2026) [4].

Base case: revenue BDT 37.2bn and EPS BDT 11.74 by FY2029F; ROE falls to 13.6% as cash builds

The forecast links each line to its driver: revenue from tonnes and price per tonne, cost of sales from materials, overhead and depreciation, other income from the cash balance, and the balance sheet from capex, working capital at 5.5% of revenue and the dividend [7]. ROE falls from 15.2% in FY2026E to 13.6% in FY2029F because cash earning 8.5% before tax grows inside equity; operating ROIC stays near 18% [7]. Compared with the company's own FY2021-FY2026 record (ROE 13.0-23.3%, median about 16.6%), the forecast sits at the low end, which reflects the flat gross margin and the cash pile rather than a break with the past.

Fair value range BDT 50-97 (base 71); the price implies a 11.3% cost of equity

We value Olympic with a free-cash-flow DCF (60%) and a two-stage dividend discount model (40%). Sum of the parts does not apply: the company has no subsidiaries or associates and batteries are 2.3% of revenue [1 p.42]. The cost of equity is 16.42%: the 10-year Treasury bond cut-off yield of 9.268% (25-Oct-2026) [6] plus a Blume-adjusted beta of 0.95 (raw 0.93 from 104 weekly returns against DSEX, correlation 0.65) times a 7.5% equity risk premium, the standard we use for non-bank DSE companies [5]. Debt is small, so WACC is 16.11%.

The DCF gives BDT 81.0: BDT 56.4 for the operating business and BDT 24.6 of net cash and investments. Terminal growth is 6%, the midpoint of the sector's 5-7% band, and terminal reinvestment is g divided by an 18% return on new capital (one third of NOPAT), close to the 18% operating ROIC in FY2029F. The terminal value is 83% of enterprise value [7], above the 75% level the F08 format flags: most of the value rests on the long-run margin and growth assumptions, which the scenario range and grids test. The dividend model gives BDT 57.1: the FY2026 dividend and three forecast years at a 40% payout, then a sustainable payout of 60.0% = 1 - g / ROE, with a 15% sustainable ROE between our FY2029F 13.6% and the company's own median of about 16.6%. That is a justified forward P/E of 5.8x; the DCF equals 8.2x FY2027F EPS, so the two legs agree that the business, on these returns, is worth well under its current multiple.

The base of BDT 71.4 is 7.3x FY2027F EPS and 1.03x FY2026 NAV. The bear case (volume -5 points a year, price -1.5 points, materials +10% then +5% for commodities +20% and a 10% weaker taka half passed on, selling +0.5 points) gives BDT 50.2; the bull case, the same moves the other way, gives BDT 96.8; the probability-weighted value is BDT 72.5 [7]. The price of BDT 134.9 is 13.5x FY2026 EPS. It sits above the bull case: to return the price the DCF needs a cost of capital of about 11.3% at 6% growth, or perpetual growth of 14.7% at our WACC. Terminal growth of 5%, 6% and 7% gives DCF values of 79.9, 81.0 and 82.3, so growth is not the swing factor; the cost of capital and the margin are.

Cross-checks, weight zero. Olympic's own trailing P/E at June year-ends outside the floor-price periods (FY2020 and FY2022-23 excluded) was 14.4-16.7x, median 15.4x [5] [2 p.47] [4]; the price today is 13.5x FY2026 EPS, inside that band, and about 1.9x our base value. Applied to FY2027F EPS the band median gives about BDT 151. We do not weight it: at our 16.4% cost of equity and a 60% sustainable payout a 15x multiple requires perpetual growth of about 12.5%, while is in effect using a cost of equity near 11.3%. Listed food peers (Lovello 16.3x TTM; Golden Harvest, RD Food, BD Thai Food loss-making or near it; Bangas 462x) come from the screener, not from their filings, so they are context only [5]. The gap between price and value is therefore a cost-of-capital question, not an earnings one.

Why the DDM (57.1) is below the DCF (81.0): in the explicit years the company pays out 40% and keeps the rest in deposits and capex; cash earning 8.5% before tax is worth less than its face value at a 16.4% cost of equity, so retained cash dilutes the DDM but counts at book in the DCF. The DDM terminal payout of 60.0% (1 - g/ROE at 15%) is higher than the 40% forecast payout because once the capex cycle ends retention only needs to fund 6% growth; the step is a modelling simplification and is the main reason we weight the DCF 60%.

A 10% materials spike not passed on cuts FY2028F EPS to BDT 6.35 and fair value to BDT 64

Each risk below names the line it moves and its effect in the model, one at a time with everything else at base. The bear and bull cases combine the volume, price, materials and selling moves.

FAQ

What is Olympic Industries' fair value?

We estimate BDT 50.2-96.8 a share, base 71.4, from a DCF (60%) and a dividend model (40%) at a 16.4% cost of equity [7]. The price on 29-Oct-2026 was BDT 134.9 [5].

How much did Olympic earn in FY2026?

EPS was BDT 10.00 against 10.06 in FY2025, with a 35% cash dividend, according to the DSE announcement of October 2026; the audited statements are not yet filed [4].

Why are Olympic's margins lower than in 2020?

Wheat flour, sugar, palm oil and the taka: gross margin fell from 31.9% in FY2020 to 23.0% in FY2022 and has stayed near 24% since [2 p.47], because competition from Pran, Haque, Romania and others limits price rises.

How many tonnes of biscuits does Olympic sell?

127,582 tonnes of biscuits and confectionery in FY2025, up 9.8%, at about BDT 212,300 a tonne [1 p.42].

Sources

1. Olympic Industries PLC audited financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2025 (FY2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. Olympic Industries Limited Annual Report 2024 (year to 30-Jun-2024) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Olympic Industries PLC un-audited financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 (Q3 FY2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. DSE news archive, OLYMPIC, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (results, dividend, board decisions) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. DSE price data via TradingView (chart_bars), daily and weekly to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction cut-off yields and lending rates, Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31