Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) valuation report: fair value BDT 121–215 (Oct 2026)

Fair value range BDT 121-215: Tibet detergent and soaps grow ~10% a year but a 14% margin is near its peak

Fair value BDT 121-215 (base 169, 9.5x FY2026F EPS) against a price of 500.4; the price corresponds to a 8.5% cost of equity or a 30% EBIT margin on our forecast.

Company · Initiation · 29 Oct 2026 · FY2025 annual (to 30-Jun-2025) + 9M FY2026 (to 31-Mar-2026) · By AnalystBro Team · 22 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Fair value range
৳121–215
Base ৳169 · price above the range · probability-weighted ৳169
Price ৳500.40
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: Medium
Bear ৳121Base ৳169Bull ৳215Price ৳500.40

FCFF DCF (cost of equity 14.2%, g 6%) 70% · DDM 30% · = 9.5x FY2026F P/E, 4.5% FY2027F yield

  • Operating business৳142
  • Cash, deposits and shares less legacy debt (FY2026F)৳28
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 500.4
52-week rangeBDT 471-566
Market capBDT 20.4bn
Shares40.78mn
Sponsors / public50.57% / 49.43%
3-month ADTVBDT 4.2mn
Fiscal year end30 June
EPS TTM (to Mar-2026)BDT 17.39
P/E TTM28.8x
NAV per share (Mar-2026)BDT 65.27
FY2025 dividend65% cash (BDT 6.50 on old shares) + 10% stock
Cash payout FY202538%
Key inputRaw and packing materials, 67% of revenue
Volume growth FY2025Production +4.6%
Gross margin (FY2025 / 9M FY2026)28.2% / 26.2%
Cash, FDR and listed shares (Mar-2026)BDT 1.75bn; no bank debt
Credit ratingAA+ / ST-2 (CRISL, Aug-2026)
Next eventFY2026 results and dividend (board met 29-Oct-2026)
Estimates
BDT mn (June year end)FY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Revenue5,7896,4707,2527,9418,696
Revenue growth8.1%11.8%12.1%9.5%9.5%
Production ('000 tonnes)35.136.738.840.542.2
Gross margin26.5%28.2%27.4%27.2%27.2%
EBIT margin12.9%13.6%13.5%13.2%13.2%
Profit for the year510632727783865
EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares)12.5015.5017.8319.2121.22
EPS growth35.1%24.0%15.1%7.7%10.5%
Cash DPS (BDT)4.135.917.137.688.49
P/E43.6x29.3x28.1x26.1x23.6x
ROE (on average equity)26.4%28.4%27.4%24.9%23.6%
Cash dividend yield0.8%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.7%

Investment case: detergent and Tibet soaps grew revenue 8% a year; fair value range BDT 121-215 as margins normalise

Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) PLC makes Tibet and Sandalina soaps, Tibet snow and powder, hair oil and, above all, detergent powder at its factory in Tejgaon, Dhaka [1 p.13]. Detergent was 48% of FY2025 gross sales, soaps 36% and personal care 16%; net revenue was BDT 6.47bn and profit BDT 632mn [1 p.31] [1 p.10]. The company was a state enterprise under BCIC until 1988; the sponsors, now led by chairman Mohammad Obaidul Karim and managing director Md. Rezaul Karim, hold 50.57% [1 p.13] [1 p.25] [2 p.1].

This is a growth story, not a mature one. Revenue grew 8.4% a year from FY2019 to FY2025, production rose to 36,702 tonnes (73.4% of a 50,000-tonne capacity) and the gross margin rose from 18.0% to 28.2% as prices ran ahead of costs in FY2023-25 [5 p.56] [1 p.36]. The nine months to March 2026 kept growing: revenue +12.8% to BDT 5,400mn and EPS BDT 12.28 against 10.39, although the gross margin slipped to 26.2% from 27.0% [2 p.2]. The FY2026 annual results were due at the board meeting of 29-Oct-2026 and were not yet published when we wrote [7]; our FY2026F is the nine months plus a fourth quarter built from drivers.

We put fair value at BDT 121-215 a share, base 169. The base blends a free-cash-flow DCF at a 14.2% cost of equity and 6% terminal growth (BDT 182, 70%) with a dividend discount model (BDT 139, 30%) [11]. It equals 9.5x our FY2026F EPS of BDT 17.83. The price of BDT 500.4 on 29-Oct-2026 [8] is above the range: 28.8x reported EPS for the 12 months to March 2026. On our forecast the price corresponds to a 8.5% cost of equity, or 12.9% growth for ever, or an EBIT margin of 30.5% from FY2027F against 13.6% in FY2025 [11].

Bulls say

  • Volume is growing: tonnes +4.6% in FY2025 and gross sales +12.1% [1 p.31] [1 p.36]. Detergent, the largest line, rose 13.0% and powder 36.6%. In our bull case FY2028F EPS reaches BDT 34 [11].
  • The balance sheet is liquid: BDT 1.25bn of cash and fixed deposits and BDT 504mn of listed shares at March 2026, and no bank debt [2 p.1].
  • CRISL raised the long-term rating to AA+ in August 2026 from AA a year earlier [7].

Bears say

  • Margins look like a peak: EBIT margin was 5.9-7.4% in FY2019-22 and 13.6% in FY2025 [5 p.56] [1 p.10]; the 9M FY2026 gross margin is already 0.8pp lower [2 p.2].
  • Palm-based oils and LAB are imported and priced in dollars. Imports 15% dearer in FY2027F cut that year's EPS to BDT 13.5 [11].
  • Governance flags: auditor emphasis of matter on unclaimed dividends two years running, a BDT 268mn contingent claim on old government debentures, and BDT 634mn (cost) of listed shares marked down to BDT 463mn [1 p.2] [1 p.30] [1 p.24].
Exhibit 1KOHINOOR moved 7% in two years, 3% against DSEX; the price is 3.0x our base
rebased, Oct-2024 = 100
025.050.075.0100125Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26Aug 26
KOHINOORDSEX
Data
Oct 24Nov 24Dec 24Jan 25Feb 25Mar 25Apr 25May 25May 25Jun 25Jul 25Aug 25Sep 25Oct 25Nov 25Dec 25Jan 26Feb 26Mar 26Apr 26May 26Jun 26Jul 26Aug 26Aug 26Sep 26Oct 26
KOHINOOR100.0099.3094.7096.40106.70101.60100.9095.8092.70101.20101.90108.20107.60110.50108.20105.20106.50110.40109.80108.20106.30108.80108.60118.30113.80111.40106.60
DSEX100.00101.9097.1098.8098.5099.0099.0093.2089.6096.40102.90106.80103.0097.4095.6092.9097.00104.00101.80100.0099.80105.00110.40111.50107.70105.20103.00
Source: Weekly closes, bonus-adjusted, Oct-2024 to Oct-2026 [8] · Rebased to 100 in Oct-2024
Exhibit 2Fair value range BDT 121-215: DCF BDT 182, dividend model BDT 139; price BDT 500.4
100200300400500600DCF (70%)122239DDM (30%)120158Fair value121215Price 500.4Base 169
Data
LowHigh
Source: Model [11]

Sponsors own 50.57%; a BDT 326mn state-era loan fund and a BDT 268mn contingent claim stay on the books

Kohinoor Chemical Company was a fully government-owned unit of Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) until 5-May-1988, when it became a public limited company. The government vested 51% in BCIC, sold 34% to the public and set aside 15% for staff; BCIC's 51% passed to the sponsor director on 3-Aug-1993 [1 p.13]. The legacy shows in the balance sheet: a BDT 326mn 'loan fund' of government and BCIC debentures and interest, carried since 1991-92 on fat supplied under a US relief grant, and a BDT 268mn contingent claim for debenture interest that a court has stopped by injunction [1 p.27] [1 p.30]. A BCIC current account of BDT 16mn is 'subject to confirmation' [1 p.29].

The sponsors hold 50.57% and the public 49.43% [1 p.25]. Paid-up capital has grown only through bonus shares: 10% stock dividends for FY2022, FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 took the share count to 40,777,893 [1 p.26] [2 p.3]. The company changed its name to Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) PLC from 3-Jun-2026 after an EGM, as the Companies Act now requires [7] [1 p.6]. There was no rights issue, bond or placement in the last 24 months [7]. As a non-bank company it faces no Bangladesh Bank payout cap; BSEC rules require unclaimed dividends older than three years to go to the Capital Market Stabilization Fund.

Ownership and control shape the risks a minority shareholder carries. The sponsors hold just over half the shares, so they control the board, the dividend split between cash and bonus shares, and capital allocation. Three choices stand out in the filings. First, the company invests surplus cash in a portfolio of listed shares rather than paying it out: BDT 634mn at cost, largely bank stocks that have fallen, with a cumulative fair-value loss of BDT 170mn at June 2025 [1 p.24]; a soap maker gains nothing operationally from owning bank shares. Second, it pays only about a third of profit in cash and the rest as bonus shares, which keeps cash inside the company. Third, it trades with companies linked to the sponsors (Orion Pharma, Orion Infusion, Reedisha) [1 p.35]. None of these is improper on its face, and the amounts are disclosed, but each is a reason the market may not credit all of the cash to minority holders.

Governance needs watching. The auditor added an emphasis of matter for FY2024 and FY2025: unclaimed dividends were not transferred to the fund on time (BDT 8.3mn moved in September 2025) [1 p.2] [7]. The company trades with sponsor-linked firms: sales to Orion Pharma and Orion Infusion and purchases of BDT 106.7mn from Reedisha in FY2025 [1 p.35]. It holds a BDT 634mn (cost) portfolio of listed shares, mostly banks and pharma (Beacon Pharma, Uttara Bank, Adntel, Beximco, Orion Pharma), worth BDT 463mn at June 2025 [1 p.24]. Directors take no remuneration, the 2022 report says [4 p.59]. Average turnover is about BDT 4.2mn a day [8].

Exhibit 3Sponsors hold 50.57%; four 10% bonus issues since FY2022 took shares to 40.78mn
Shares (mn)Note
1988 paid-up capital5.00BCIC 51% -> sponsor 1993
After FY2021-22 20% bonus30.64—
After FY2022-23 10% bonus33.70—
After FY2023-24 10% bonus37.07Jun-2025 count
After FY2024-25 10% bonus40.78Credited Jan-2026
Sponsors / public50.57% / 49.43%—
Source: Share capital notes [1 p.25] [1 p.26]; [2 p.3]
Exhibit 4Legacy items: BDT 326mn loan fund on the balance sheet and a BDT 268mn contingent claim
BDT mn, Jun-2025AmountTreatment in our valuation
Debentures: Government of Bangladesh103.5Deducted as debt
Debentures: BCIC184.0Deducted as debt
Interest payable to government (pre-1983)38.6Deducted as debt
Contingent debenture interest (court injunction)268.1Deducted in the bear only (BDT 6.6 a share)
BCIC current account (subject to confirmation)16.0In payables
Source: Notes 18, 22, 25 [1 p.27] [1 p.29] [1 p.30]
Exhibit 5Capital actions and notices, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026: cash plus bonus dividends, PLC conversion, rating upgrade
DateEvent
06-Nov-2024FY2024 dividend: 50% cash, 10% stock
19-Nov-2024Auditor emphasis of matter, FY2024
26-Oct-2025FY2025 dividend: 65% cash, 10% stock; EGM for PLC name
02-Nov-2025Auditor emphasis of matter, FY2025 (unclaimed dividend)
03-Jun-2026Name changed to Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) PLC
23-Aug-2026CRISL AA+ / ST-2 (from AA, Aug-2025)
29-Oct-2026Board meeting on FY2026 audited accounts (results not yet posted)
Source: DSE announcements [7]

Detergent grew 13% and is 48% of sales; we forecast revenue +12% in FY2026F and +9% in FY2027F

Revenue note 26 splits gross sales by product [1 p.31]. Detergent powder sold BDT 3,662mn in FY2025 (+13.0%), toilet soap BDT 1,571mn (+14.7%), washing soap BDT 1,199mn (+2.0%), Tibet snow and cream BDT 392mn (-1.9%), powder BDT 477mn (+36.6%) and hair oil BDT 162mn (+32.7%). VAT and supplementary duty took 14.95% of gross sales, leaving net revenue of BDT 6,470mn (+11.8%). Production was 36,702 tonnes against 35,091 (+4.6%) [1 p.36], so price and mix added about 7.2%. The company does not publish volume by product, so we split growth with labelled assumptions.

Detergent is the engine. Bangladeshi households are moving from bar laundry soap to powder, which is why washing soap barely grew while detergent rose 13%. Kohinoor sells mostly in the mass and rural market under the Tibet name; the premium end belongs to Unilever's Wheel and Surf Excel, and Square Toiletries, ACI and Keya compete in the middle (competitor brands are our context; the filings name none). In soaps, Tibet and Sandalina face Lux and Lifebuoy (Unilever), Meril (Square), Keya and Savlon (ACI). Tibet snow, a long-standing cold-cream brand, shrank in FY2025 while powder and hair oil grew fast from small bases [1 p.31].

Our base grows detergent volume 7% in FY2026F and 5% a year after, soaps 4% then 3%, and personal care 6%. Price and mix add 6% in FY2026F and 5% a year after, below the FY2025 pace as inflation eases. Revenue is BDT 7.25bn in FY2026F (+12.1%) and BDT 8.70bn in FY2028F [11]. The fourth quarter of FY2026F (April-June 2026) needs 10.2% growth over the same quarter of FY2025, against 12.8% in the nine months and 11.0% in the March quarter [2 p.2]: a modest slowdown because the price increases of 2025 annualise.

Exhibit 6Detergent is 48% of gross sales and grew 13.0% in FY2025; powder and hair oil grew over 30%
BDT mn, gross of VATFY24AFY25AGrowthShare FY25
Detergent powder3,241.93,661.90.10.5
Toilet soap (Tibet, Sandalina)1,370.21,571.40.10.2
Washing (laundry) soap1,175.91,199.30.00.2
Snow and cream (Tibet snow)400.0392.3-0.00.1
Powder (talcum, Tibet)349.1476.80.40.1
Hair oil121.8161.60.30.0
Miscellaneous100.8111.40.10.0
Toothpaste and shaving cream25.932.70.30.0
Gross sales6,785.67,607.40.11.0
Less VAT and SD-996.6-1,137.7——
Net revenue5,789.06,469.70.1—
Source: Revenue note 26 [1 p.31] · Growth and share columns are ratios (0.13 = 13%)
Exhibit 7Category mix FY2025: detergent BDT 3,662mn, soaps BDT 2,771mn
BDT mn
01,0002,0003,0004,000DetergentToilet soapWashing soapPowderSnow & creamHair oilOther3,6621,5711,199477392162144
Data
DetergentToilet soapWashing soapPowderSnow & creamHair oilOther
FY2025 gross sales3,661.901,571.401,199.30476.80392.30161.60144.10
Source: Revenue note 26 [1 p.31]
Exhibit 8Volume and price: tonnes +4.6% and price/mix +7.2% in FY2025; we forecast both
GrowthFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Detergent volume—7.0%5.0%5.0%
Soap volume—4.0%3.0%3.0%
Personal care volume—6.0%5.0%5.0%
Production tonnes4.6%5.8%4.3%4.3%
Price/mix7.2%6.0%5.0%5.0%
Net revenue11.8%12.1%9.5%9.5%
Source: Revenue note and capacity note [1 p.31] [1 p.36]; forecast [11]
Exhibit 9Nine months to March 2026: revenue +12.8%; our fourth quarter needs +10%
BDT mn9M FY254Q FY259M FY264Q FY26FFY26F
Revenue4,7891,6805,4001,8527,252
Gross margin27.0%31.8%26.2%31.0%27.4%
Profit after tax424208501227727
EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares)10.395.1112.285.5617.83
Source: 9M statements [2 p.2]; FY2025 [1 p.10]; 4Q FY26F [11]

Unilever, Square, ACI and Keya set the price umbrella; Kohinoor grew tonnes 4.6% in FY2025 under it

Kohinoor sells soap, detergent and toiletries in every district through distributors who pay in advance: trade receivables were only BDT 60mn, under 1% of revenue, at June 2025 [1 p.9]. Advance-against-sales balances sit with dealers such as Rokeya, Bali and P.P Enterprise [1 p.29]. Selling and distribution cost 12.7% of revenue in FY2025: salaries of the sales force BDT 495mn, advertising BDT 259mn and carriage BDT 36mn [1 p.32]. Advertising rose 10% while revenue rose 12%, so the brands grew without heavier spending.

The market is contested by bigger budgets. Unilever Bangladesh (not listed; its listed affiliate UNILEVERCL sells personal care) leads in premium soap and detergent, and Square Toiletries, ACI and Keya Cosmetics fight in the mass market. Market-size and share data for laundry and soap categories are not published by BBS or the regulators, so we do not quote shares; this is a labelled gap. What the filings do show is Kohinoor's own growth: tonnes up 4.6% and gross sales up 12.1% in FY2025 [1 p.31] [1 p.36], faster than inflation, which says the Tibet brands held or gained ground in their tier.

The detergent switch is the core of the growth case. A generation ago most Bangladeshi households washed clothes with bar soap; powder was a premium urban product. Rising incomes, more synthetic fabrics and the spread of small single-use sachets have moved rural buyers to powder, and the cheapest powders compete on price per wash rather than brand. Kohinoor's own numbers show the shift: detergent grew 13.0% and washing soap 2.0% in FY2025, and detergent is now larger than all of its soaps together [1 p.31]. The shift has room to run, but it also attracts the largest competitors, which already have national distribution and bigger advertising budgets. Our base keeps detergent volume growth at 5% a year after FY2026F, slower than in FY2025, for that reason.

How the competitors behave matters for both volume and price. Unilever's local operation is the price leader in laundry and soap, and Square Toiletries, ACI and Keya follow with value brands and heavy trade promotions. In a year of falling input costs the leaders tend to hold prices and spend on promotion; in a year of rising costs they raise prices first, which gives the value brands room to follow. Kohinoor's advertising was 4.0% of revenue in FY2025 [1 p.32], modest for an FMCG company, so a promotional fight would raise its costs before it hurt volume. Our bear case adds half a point of revenue in brand spend and cuts price/mix by 1.5 points; the risk table shows one point of extra spend alone costs BDT 4 a share [11].

Demand drivers are population (about 1% a year), rising rural incomes and the switch from bar soap to powder. Price is the risk: if Unilever or Square cut prices to win back mass-market volume, Kohinoor would have to follow. In our risk table, a 3-point lower price/mix in FY2027F cuts fair value to BDT 157, and 5 points less detergent volume to BDT 166 [11].

Exhibit 10Competitive context: Kohinoor's mass-market brands face larger groups in every category
CategoryKohinoor brandsMain competitors (context)
Detergent powderTibet detergentUnilever (Wheel, Surf Excel), Square, ACI, Keya
Toilet soapTibet, SandalinaUnilever (Lux, Lifebuoy), Square (Meril), Keya, ACI (Savlon)
Washing soapTibet ball and bar soapLocal and regional makers
Snow, cream, powderTibet snow, Tibet powderUnilever, Square, Keya
Hair oilTibet and otherMARICO (Parachute), Square
Source: Company products [1 p.13] [1 p.31]; competitor brands are market context, not from filings
Exhibit 11Selling cost 12.7% of revenue: sales salaries BDT 495mn, advertising BDT 259mn in FY2025
BDT mnFY24AFY25AGrowth
Sales salaries and allowances414.5494.60.2
Publicity and advertising235.5259.30.1
Carriage outward32.236.10.1
Total selling and distribution703.3821.50.2
Source: Note 29 [1 p.32]

Gross margin 28.2% is near a peak; each 10% on imported inputs moves FY2027F EPS about 25%

Materials are most of the cost. In FY2025 raw materials consumed were BDT 3,762mn and packing materials BDT 560mn, together 67% of revenue; factory overhead was BDT 412mn, including gas and fuel BDT 117mn and salaries BDT 217mn [1 p.31]. The main inputs are palm-based oils and soap noodles for soap, linear alkylbenzene (LAB) and sodium sulphate for detergent, caustic soda, perfume, and cartons, laminates and tubes from local suppliers [1 p.28]. The statements do not split imported and local purchases; we assume 55% is imported or priced off import parity (a labelled assumption).

The gross margin rose from 18.0% in FY2019 to 28.2% in FY2025 [5 p.56] [1 p.10]. Most of the gain came in FY2023-25, when prices rose faster than input costs after the taka's fall. That trend has turned: the 9M FY2026 gross margin was 26.2% against 27.0% [2 p.2]. Our materials ratio moves each year with imported prices in dollars, the BDT/USD rate and local costs, divided by price/mix. In the base the gross margin is 27.4% in FY2026F and 27.2% in FY2028F [11].

We tried to cross-check the 55% import share. The FY2025 statements give cash paid to suppliers (BDT 5,786mn) but no import-payment or letter-of-credit line, and the VAT-on-import note does not give the import value [1 p.12] [1 p.24]; so the share is a labelled assumption. Its effect is second-order on our base (fair value BDT 169 at 45% and BDT 170 at 65%) but matters in a cost shock: with imports 15% dearer in FY2027F, fair value is BDT 154 at a 45% share and BDT 149 at 65%, against BDT 151 at 55% [11].

The input story in plain terms: soap is mostly fat. Toilet and laundry soap use soap noodles or palm stearin and palm fatty-acid distillate, priced off Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil in dollars; a jump in palm oil, as in 2022, raises the cost of every bar within a quarter or two. Detergent powder is mostly sodium sulphate filler, soda ash and LAB, the active surfactant, which follows crude oil and is imported. Caustic soda, used to saponify the fats, is now made in Bangladesh by several chlor-alkali plants, so it moves with local gas and power prices more than with the dollar. Packaging (cartons, laminates, tubes and bottles) is local but uses imported resin and paper. Gas, power and wages sit in factory overhead, which rose 9% in FY2025 [1 p.31]. When all of these rise together, as in 2022-23, the company has raised prices with a lag; the gross margin dipped and then overshot.

Sensitivity: each 10% rise in imported input costs in taka, not passed on, moves FY2027F EPS from BDT 19.21 to BDT 14.44, about 25% [11]. Kohinoor has passed costs on before; the risk is a year when it cannot. Wages and gas also matter: factory salaries rose 12% in FY2025 [1 p.31].

Exhibit 12Materials were 67% of revenue in FY2025; overhead BDT 412mn
BDT mnFY24AFY25A% of revenue FY25
Raw materials consumed3,442.03,761.90.6
Packing materials consumed462.8560.10.1
Factory overhead377.9412.00.1
of which gas and fuel117.0117.40.0
of which depreciation17.417.30.0
Cost of sales (after stock change)4,254.34,642.20.7
Source: Note 27 [1 p.31]
Exhibit 13Gross margin rose from 17.9% (FY2017) to 28.2% (FY2025); we forecast 27.2% by FY2028F
% of revenue
010.020.030.0ForecastFY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Gross marginEBIT margin
Data
FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Gross margin17.9018.0018.0018.7019.3019.4022.2026.5028.2027.4027.2027.20
EBIT margin6.106.306.205.907.207.409.8012.9013.6013.5013.2013.20
Source: Statements [5 p.56] [4 p.83] [3 p.8] [1 p.10]; forecast [11]
Exhibit 14Volume +-5pp a year matters as much as imported costs +-20%: fair value BDT 124-224
Volume vs baseImports -20%Imports -10%Imports +0%Imports +10%Imports +20%
-5.0% a year178164151137124
-2.5% a year188174160146132
+0.0% a year199184169154140
+2.5% a year211195180164148
+5.0% a year224207190174157
Source: Model recalculated per cell [11] · Fair value, BDT/share. Columns: imported-material cost in taka from FY2027F; rows: extra volume growth a year in FY2027F-28F, all categories
Exhibit 15FY2027F EPS ranges BDT 8.8-30.5 on the same inputs
Volume vs baseImports -20%Imports -10%Imports +0%Imports +10%Imports +20%
-5.0% a year26.9722.4217.8813.338.79
-2.5% a year27.8623.2018.5413.889.23
+0.0% a year28.7623.9819.2114.449.66
+2.5% a year29.6524.7619.8814.9910.10
+5.0% a year30.5425.5420.5415.5410.54
Source: Model [11] · FY2027F EPS, BDT

The plant ran at 73% in FY2025 and reaches 84% by FY2028F; we assume a new line costing BDT 340mn

The Tejgaon plant has a stated capacity of 50,000 tonnes a year. It made 36,702 tonnes in FY2025 (73.4%) and 35,091 in FY2024 (70.2%) [1 p.36]. Capex was small: BDT 10.9mn in FY2024 and BDT 49.6mn in FY2025, against depreciation of about BDT 24mn [1 p.12] [1 p.34]; there were no capital commitments at June 2025 [1 p.35]. In the nine months to March 2026 it spent BDT 36.8mn [2 p.4].

On our volume forecast utilisation reaches 81% in FY2027F and 84% in FY2028F [11]. The board kept the 10% stock dividends of FY2024 and FY2025 'to be utilized for capital machineries, construction, and major overhauling' [7], which points to a new line, but no project, cost or date has been announced. We therefore assume capex of BDT 160mn in FY2027F and BDT 180mn in FY2028F, and 1.5x depreciation a year after, a labelled assumption. If a new detergent line fills faster (volume +9% a year), fair value rises to BDT 177 [11].

Exhibit 16Utilisation rises from 73% to 84% by FY2028F on our volumes
'000 tonnes
010.020.030.040.050.0ForecastFY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F35.136.738.840.542.2
Data
FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
Production35.1036.7038.8040.5042.20
Source: Capacity note [1 p.36]; forecast [11] · Installed capacity 50,000 tonnes
Exhibit 17Capex rises to BDT 180mn by FY2028F for a new line (assumption)
BDT mnFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Capex115055160180
Depreciation2424263240
PPE incl. right-of-use (year-end)285314342470610
Capacity utilisation70.2%73.4%77.6%81.0%84.4%
Source: Cash flow [1 p.12]; forecast [11]

Nine-year record: EBIT margin median 7.2% (FY2017-25) against 14% in FY2025; ROE median 23%

Nine years of filings set the base for 'normal'. In FY2017 Kohinoor sold BDT 3,393mn and in FY2018 BDT 3,661mn, with EBIT margins of 6.1% and 6.3% and profit of BDT 147mn and BDT 154mn [6 p.6]. Equity was only BDT 554mn and BDT 728mn [6 p.5]. Across FY2017-25 the median EBIT margin is 7.2% and the median ROE on average equity 23.0% [11]. The margin was flat at 6-7% for six years while revenue grew; it rose only from FY2023, when the company lifted prices faster than its costs after the taka's fall. Nothing in the filings shows a structural change in mix or pricing power that would keep it at 13-14%, which is why our sustainable margin of 10.0% sits nearer the long-run average than the recent peak.

Seven years of the recent filings show steady revenue and a margin step-up. Revenue grew from BDT 3,996mn in FY2019 to BDT 6,470mn in FY2025 and profit from BDT 174mn to BDT 632mn [5 p.56] [1 p.10]. The EBIT margin was 5.9-7.4% in FY2019-22, then 9.8%, 12.9% and 13.6% [4 p.83] [3 p.8]. ROE on average equity rose from 21.0% in FY2021 to 28.4% in FY2025 (median 23.2%), held down by the cash and shares on the balance sheet [11]. Other income is volatile: BDT 74mn in FY2022, BDT 21mn in FY2024 and BDT 45mn in FY2025, after a BDT 15mn loss on share sales [1 p.33].

FY2023 figures are read from the page image of the FY2024 report, where the text layer misreads revenue as 5,397.5; the image shows 5,357.5, which reconciles with cost of sales and gross profit [3 p.8]. The FY2025 statements restate FY2024 equity and NAV [1 p.9].

Exhibit 18Nine-year record: EBIT margin 6% for six years, then up to 13.6%; FY2017-25 median 7.2%
BDT mnFY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue3,3933,6613,9963,9004,1674,7055,3585,7896,470
Gross profit6096587207288039121,1881,5351,828
Gross margin17.9%18.0%18.0%18.7%19.3%19.4%22.2%26.5%28.2%
EBIT208230247228302348523746878
EBIT margin6.1%6.3%6.2%5.9%7.2%7.4%9.8%12.9%13.6%
Profit for the year147154174168234317377510632
EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares)3.603.794.284.125.747.779.2512.5015.50
Exhibit 19EPS on today's share count rose from BDT 3.60 (FY2017) to BDT 15.50; we forecast BDT 21.22 by FY2028F
BDT
0510.015.020.025.0ForecastFY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F3.63.794.284.125.747.779.2512.515.517.819.221.2
Data
FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FFY27FFY28F
EPS3.603.794.284.125.747.779.2512.5015.5017.8319.2121.22
Source: Statements; forecast [11]
Exhibit 20ROE median 23.2% (FY2021-25); forecast 23.6% in FY2028F
%
010.020.030.0ForecastFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
ROE (average equity)Net margin
Data
FY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
ROE (average equity)21.0023.2022.8026.4028.4027.4024.9023.60
Net margin5.606.707.008.809.8010.009.9010.00
Source: Model [11]

BDT 28 a share of cash and shares net of legacy debt; cash payout 40% gives FY2026F DPS BDT 7.1

Operating cash flow was BDT 966mn in FY2024 and BDT 648mn in FY2025, when inventories rose by BDT 258mn [1 p.12] [1 p.34]. In the nine months to March 2026 it was BDT 735mn against BDT 925mn; the company blamed a further stock build, with inventories at BDT 1,834mn [2 p.4] [2 p.1] [7]. Payables and accruals rose too (BDT 773mn and BDT 492mn), which kept cash flow positive. We assume inventory of 130 days of cost of sales at June 2026, easing to 120 days, so operating cash flow is BDT 553mn in FY2026F and BDT 772mn in FY2028F [11].

The balance sheet holds BDT 768mn of cash and fixed deposits and BDT 463mn of listed shares at June 2025, against no bank debt, BDT 326mn of the legacy loan fund and small leases [1 p.9]. By March 2026 cash and deposits were BDT 1,247mn and the shares BDT 504mn [2 p.1]. Net of the loan fund, leases and gratuity, that is BDT 27.6 a share at June 2026F, part of our DCF bridge. The share portfolio cost BDT 634mn and is marked to market through other comprehensive income; it is not part of the soap business [1 p.24].

Dividends combine cash and bonus shares. Cash dividends were BDT 122.5mn for FY2023, BDT 168.5mn for FY2024 (50%) and BDT 241.0mn for FY2025 (65%), 32%, 33% and 38% of profit, each with a 10% stock dividend [1 p.27] [2 p.3] [7]. Bonus shares do not change value, so we model cash only: a 40% payout gives a FY2026F cash DPS of BDT 7.13 on today's shares [11]. The FY2026 dividend was to be set at the 29-Oct-2026 board meeting and has not been published.

Exhibit 21Operating cash flow BDT 648mn in FY2025; we forecast BDT 687mn in FY2027F
BDT mnFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Net cash from operations966648553687772
Capex-11-50-55-160-180
Free cash flow955598498527592
Cash dividends paid-115-160-241-291-313
OCF / profit1.9x1.0x0.8x0.9x0.9x
Source: Cash flow [1 p.12]; forecast [11]
Exhibit 22Cash, deposits and listed shares less the loan fund: BDT 27.6 a share at June 2026F
BDT mnJun-24Jun-25Jun-26FJun-27FJun-28F
Cash and fixed deposits2977681,0241,2601,539
Listed shares (at market)576463463463463
Inventories1,2261,4841,8741,9812,081
Loan fund (legacy)-326-326-326-326-326
Equity2,0342,4162,9023,3943,946
Book value per share (BDT)49.8859.2471.1783.2496.78
Source: Balance sheet [1 p.9] [2 p.1]; forecast [11]
Exhibit 23Cash payout 32-38% plus 10% bonus shares each year; FY2026F cash DPS BDT 7.13
FY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27F
Cash dividend (BDT mn)122.5168.5241.0290.9313.3
Cash dividend rate on face value40%50%65%——
Stock dividend10%10%10%n.a.n.a.
Cash payout32.5%33.1%38.1%40.0%40.0%
Source: Note 16, 24 [1 p.27] [1 p.30]; DSE [7]; forecast [11]

We forecast EPS of BDT 17.83 in FY2026F and BDT 21.22 by FY2028F as volume grows and margins ease

The forecast builds each line from its driver. Revenue comes from the three categories (volume x price). Cost of sales for FY2026F is the nine-month actual plus a fourth quarter at the fourth-quarter FY2025 cost ratio (68.2%), raised by the 0.8-point rise seen in the nine months; from FY2027F the materials ratio moves with input prices, the taka and price/mix, and factory overhead rises with wages and the new line. Selling cost stays near 12.6% of revenue, administration grows 8% a year from BDT 103mn, and other income is 8% on opening cash and deposits plus a 3% dividend yield on the share portfolio. WPPF is 4.76% and tax 27.5% (27.7% in FY2025, 27.0% in the nine months) [1 p.10] [2 p.2].

FY2026F EPS is BDT 17.83 (+15.1%): nine months of BDT 12.28 plus a fourth quarter of BDT 5.56 against BDT 5.11 a year earlier (8.8%) [2 p.2] [11]. The fourth quarter grows more slowly than the nine months (EPS +18%) for named reasons. The fourth quarter (April-June) is seasonally the strongest for margin: it carries the year-end stock count and audit adjustments and, in FY2025 and FY2026, the Eid-ul-Adha selling season for soap and detergent; the FY2025 fourth-quarter gross margin was 31.8% against 27.0% in the nine months. We keep that seasonal premium but lower it by the 0.8-point cost rise of the nine months. Second, FY2025's other income of BDT 45mn fell almost entirely in its fourth quarter (the nine months showed none), and the gross margin trend is down. No residual or plug line is used. FY2027F EPS is BDT 19.21 and FY2028F BDT 21.22, about 9% a year, slower than revenue because the gross margin eases [11].

Against benchmarks: our FY2026F EPS is 2.6% above the 12-month run-rate to March 2026 (BDT 17.39), and our FY2026F EBIT margin of 13.5% compares with 9.8% as the FY2021-25 median and 12.3% in the nine months [11] [2 p.2]. Management gives no guidance and holds no earnings calls that we could find in DSE announcements [7].

Model update

  • Latest period used: nine months to 31-Mar-2026 (unaudited) and the audited FY2025 statements.
  • The FY2026 audited results (year to 30-Jun-2026) were on the board agenda for 29-Oct-2026 but were not posted on DSE when we wrote. The model will be updated when the FY2026 statements are filed.
Exhibit 24Income statement: EPS BDT 17.83 in FY2026F, BDT 21.22 in FY2028F
BDT mnFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Gross sales by category (incl. VAT)
Detergent powder———3,2423,6624,1534,5795,048
Soap: toilet (Tibet, Sandalina) and washing———2,5462,7713,0543,3033,573
Personal care: snow, powder, hair oil, other———9981,1751,3201,4551,604
Gross sales———6,7867,6078,5289,33810,225
Less: VAT and SD———-997-1,138-1,275-1,396-1,529
Revenue (net sales)4,1674,7055,3585,7896,4707,2527,9418,696
Revenue growth—12.9%13.9%8.1%11.8%12.1%9.5%9.5%
Production volume ('000 tonnes)———35.136.738.840.542.2
Capacity utilisation (50,000 t)———70.2%73.4%77.6%81.0%84.4%
Costs
Materials incl. stock change, % of revenue———67.0%65.4%66.4%66.7%66.7%
Factory overhead———-378-412-445-485-530
Cost of sales-3,364-3,793-4,169-4,254-4,642-5,263-5,785-6,330
Gross profit8039121,1881,5351,8271,9892,1562,367
Gross margin19.3%19.4%22.2%26.5%28.2%27.4%27.2%27.2%
Selling and distribution-430-493-585-703-822-910-1,001-1,096
Administrative-71-72-80-85-128-103-111-120
Operating profit (EBIT)3023485237468789771,0451,151
Other income (interest, dividends, securities)15747021457596108
Finance costs-4-2-42-27-5-6-6-6
Profit before WPPF3134205527409181,0461,1341,253
Contribution to WPPF-15-20-26-35-44-50-54-60
Profit before tax2984005257058749961,0801,194
Effective tax rate21.4%20.8%28.2%27.7%27.7%27.0%27.5%27.5%
Income tax (current and deferred)-64-83-148-196-242-269-297-328
Profit for the year234317377510632727783865
Shares (mn, after the FY25 10% bonus)40.7840.7840.7840.7840.7840.7840.7840.78
EPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares)5.747.779.2512.5015.5017.8319.2121.22
Cash DPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares)——3.014.135.917.137.688.49
Depreciation (incl. right-of-use)———2424263240
EBITDA———7719021,0031,0771,191

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: Model [11]
Exhibit 25Fourth quarter FY2026F: revenue +10%, profit 9% on the fourth quarter of FY2025
BDT mn9M FY25A4Q FY25AFY25A9M FY26A4Q FY26FFY26F4Q growth
Revenue4,7891,6806,4705,4001,8527,2520
Gross profit1,2935351,8271,4155741,9890
Operating profit5812978786633139770
Profit after tax4242086325012277270
Gross margin27.0%31.8%28.2%26.2%31.0%27.4%—
EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares)10.395.1115.5012.285.5617.83—

From the Quarterly tab of the model.

Source: 9M [2 p.2]; FY2025 [1 p.10]; 4Q FY26F [11]
Exhibit 26Our FY2026F EPS BDT 17.83 vs run-rate BDT 17.39 and five-year average
EPS (BDT)EBIT margin
12 months to Mar-2026 (reported)17.39—
FY2021-25 average10.150.10
FY2025 actual15.500.14
Our FY2026F17.830.13
Our FY2027F19.210.13
Source: Model [11]; [2 p.2] · EBIT margin column is a ratio

Fair value range BDT 121-215, base 169 (9.5x FY2026F EPS); the price is above the range

The valuation reads off the forecast. DCF (70%): free cash flow to the firm for FY2027F-33F is discounted at the cost of equity (there is no bank debt) to 30-Jun-2026 with mid-year timing, then rolled forward to 29-Oct-2026. Growth fades to 6% and the EBIT margin to a sustainable 10.0%. The terminal value uses NOPAT x (1 - g / return on new capital) with a 23.0% return, so reinvestment is 26.1% of NOPAT. Enterprise value is BDT 5,994mn, 54% from the terminal value. Adding cash and deposits of BDT 1,024mn and listed shares of BDT 463mn, and deducting the loan fund, leases and gratuity, gives BDT 182 a share. DDM (30%): FY2026F-28F cash dividends, paid each December, then EPS x (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) at the same 23.0% ROE, give BDT 139. The DDM is lower because the existing cash and shares, and the cash retained at a 40% payout, enter it only through interest income. Sum of the parts does not apply: one business, no subsidiaries; the share portfolio is valued at market.

Inputs, set without reference to the price. Cost of equity = 10-year T-bond 9.27% [10] + beta 0.65 x ERP 7.5% = 14.2%. ERP 7.5% is the standard for non-bank DSE companies in this series. The raw two-year weekly beta against DSEX is 0.48 (correlation 0.30) [8]; Blume-adjusted it is 0.65, above the F08 floor of 0.6, so we use it. Terminal growth of 6% is the middle of the F08 staples range (5-7%); revenue grew 8.4% a year in FY2019-25, partly from inflation. The 23.0% return on new capital is the FY2018-25 median ROE on average equity, 23.0% (range 17.9-28.4%) [6 p.5] [5 p.55]; operating returns are higher because equity carries BDT 1.2bn of cash and shares, so ROE is the conservative choice and is used in all three legs. The sustainable EBIT margin of 10.0% is near the company's nine-year average (FY2017-25 range 5.9-13.6%, median 7.2%, mean 8.4%) [6 p.6] and well below the FY2024-25 peak, because that peak came from prices running ahead of costs and the nine-month gross margin is already lower. The justified forward P/E is (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) = 9.1x; our base is 9.5x FY2026F and 8.8x FY2027F EPS, with a 4.5% FY2027F cash yield.

The price and our range. At BDT 500.4 the market values Kohinoor at BDT 20.4bn, 28.1x our FY2026F EPS, above our bull case of BDT 215. On our forecast the price corresponds to a 8.5% cost of equity, 12.9% growth for ever (above the cost of equity in practice), or an EBIT margin of 30.5% from FY2027F [11]. June trailing P/Es were 47.7x (FY2021), 32.6x and 40.6x (FY2022-23, partly in the DSE floor-price years), 43.6x (FY2024) and 29.3x (FY2025), median 40.6x [8] [11]. The market has long paid a growth multiple for this stock; we do not anchor on it (WRITER rule: multiples must not echo the price), and our inputs would need the margin or growth above to support the price.

Exhibit 27Cost of equity 14.2% = Rf 9.27% + beta 0.65 x ERP 7.5%
InputValue
Risk-free rate (BD 10-yr T-bond cut-off yield)9.3%
Equity risk premium7.5%
Raw beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX)0.48
Blume-adjusted beta0.65
Beta used (floor 0.6)0.65
Cost of equity14.2%
WACC14.2%
Terminal growth (nominal BDT)6.0%
Return on new capital / sustainable ROE (terminal)23.0%
Discount from 30-Jun-2026 to 29-Oct-2026 (years; negative = roll forward)-0.33
Sustainable EBIT margin (fade target, FY33F)10.0%

From the WACC tab of the model.

Source: BB auction 25-Oct-2026 [10]; beta from chart_bars [8]
Exhibit 28DCF: enterprise value BDT 5,994mn plus cash and shares; BDT 182 a share
BDT mn unless statedFY27FFY28FFY29FFY30FFY31FFY32FFY33F
Revenue7,9418,6969,46210,22910,98611,72212,426
Revenue growth9.5%9.5%8.8%8.1%7.4%6.7%6.0%
EBIT margin13.2%13.2%12.6%11.9%11.3%10.6%10.0%
EBIT1,0451,1511,1911,2211,2411,2481,243
Less: WPPF and tax on EBIT-323-356-369-378-384-386-385
NOPAT721795822843857862858
Add: depreciation32404447515457
Less: capex-160-180-65-71-76-81-86
Less: increase in working capital (FY29F+: % of revenue at FY28F)-129-133-158-158-156-152-145
Free cash flow to firm (FCFF)465521643662675683684
Discount period (years from 30-Jun-2026, mid-year)0.51.52.53.54.55.56.5
Discount factor0.940.820.720.630.550.480.42
PV of FCFF435427462416372330289
Sum of PV of FCFF, FY27F-FY33F2,731——————
Terminal reinvestment rate = g / RONIC26.1%——————
Terminal value at FY33F8,243——————
PV of terminal value3,263——————
Enterprise value at 30-Jun-20265,994——————
Terminal value, % of EV54.4%——————
Add: cash and fixed deposits (FY26F)1,024——————
Add: listed shares at market (FY26F)463——————
Less: legacy loan fund, leases, gratuity; contingent claim in the bear (FY26F)-363——————
Equity value at 30-Jun-20267,119——————
DCF value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)182.4——————
DDM: FY26F DPS, paid ~Dec-2026 (BDT)7.13——————
DDM: FY27F DPS, paid ~Dec-2027 (BDT)7.68——————
DDM: FY28F DPS, paid ~Dec-2028 (BDT)8.49——————
DDM: FY28F EPS at the sustainable EBIT margin (BDT)16.46——————
DDM: value at Dec-2028 of later dividends = EPS x (1+g) x (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g)158.1——————
DDM value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)138.9——————
Weight: DCF70.0%——————
Weight: DDM30.0%——————
Fair value, active scenario (BDT/share)169.3——————
Fair value - bear (25%)121.2——————
Fair value - base (50%)169.3——————
Fair value - bull (25%)214.7——————
Probability-weighted fair value168.6——————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)500.4——————
Cash, FDR and listed shares less loan fund, leases and gratuity per share, FY26F27.6——————
Justified forward P/E = (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g)9.1x——————
Implied FY26F P/E at base fair value9.5x——————
Implied FY27F P/E at base fair value8.8x——————
Implied FY27F dividend yield at base fair value4.5%——————
Reverse DCF: cost of equity that equates DCF value to price (base g)8.5%——————
Reverse DCF: terminal g that equates DCF value to price12.9%——————
Reverse DCF: EBIT margin FY27F+ that equates DCF value to price (base Ke, g)30.5%——————
Bear: DCF / DDM (BDT/share)121.9119.5—————
Bull: DCF / DDM (BDT/share)238.9158.3—————

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: Model [11]
Exhibit 29DCF across inputs: BDT 151-794; base cell BDT 182
Terminal gCoE 10.2%CoE 12.2%CoE 14.2%CoE 15.2%CoE 16.2%
5.0%278212175162151
6.0%314227182167155
7.0%374247192174160
8.0%487277204182166
9.0%794325220192173
Source: DCF recomputed per cell [11] · DCF value, BDT/share; cost of equity -4pp to +2pp, terminal g 5-9%
Exhibit 30Scenarios: bear BDT 121 (volume -3pp, price -1.5pp, imports +7pp); bull BDT 215 (the reverse)
Bear (25%)Base (50%)Bull (25%)
Detergent volume FY27F2.0%5.0%8.0%
Soap volume FY27F0.0%3.0%6.0%
Price/mix FY27F3.5%5.0%6.5%
Imported materials USD FY27F10.0%3.0%-4.0%
BDT per USD FY27F6.0%2.0%0.0%
Extra brand spend FY27F0.5%0.0%-0.3%
FY2027F EPS (BDT)10.7919.2126.76
FY2027F gross margin21.8%27.2%31.5%
DCF (BDT/share)122182239
DDM (BDT/share)120139158
Fair value (BDT/share)121169215
Implied FY2026F P/E6.9x9.5x11.8x
Implied P/B (Jun-2026F book)1.7x2.4x3.0x
Source: Model [11] · Probability-weighted value BDT 169. Driver shocks run through FY2026F-28F; margins fade to 10.0% by FY2033F in every case. The bear also deducts the BDT 268mn contingent debenture interest
Exhibit 31June trailing P/E ranged 29-48x in FY2021-25 (median 40.6x); our base is 9.5x FY2026F
x
010.020.030.040.050.0FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25Base FY26FPrice FY26F47.732.640.643.629.39.528.1
Data
FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25Base FY26FPrice FY26F
P/E47.7032.6040.6043.6029.309.5028.10
Source: June prices [8]; EPS from statements; [11] · FY22-23 partly at the DSE floor price; P/E on bonus-adjusted EPS and prices
Exhibit 32Peers trade at 13-71x trailing earnings; no peer-multiple leg because peers are not rebuilt from their filings
KOHINOORUNILEVERCLRECKITTBENMARICOACI
Market cap (BDT bn)20.437.615.283.215.6
P/E TTM28.8x71.1x18.4x13.3x—
P/B7.7x21.0x40.7x18.1x1.7x
Dividend yield1.2%2.2%5.4%7.9%1.4%
Source: Screener, close 29-Oct-2026 [9]; KOHINOOR [11] · KOHINOOR P/E on 12 months to Mar-2026; P/B on NAVPS 65.27 at Mar-2026 [Q3 FY2026 p.1]; yield on the FY2025 cash dividend. Square Toiletries and Keya are not comparable listed peers

Risks: imports +15% cut fair value 11%; a 3pp price cut takes 7%

Each risk below changes one driver, with everything else at base; margins fade back to normal by FY2033F as in the scenarios. Input costs are the largest: imports 15% dearer in dollars cut FY2027F EPS to BDT 13.48 and fair value by 11%. A 3-point lower price/mix costs 7% and a 10% taka fall 7%. Five points less detergent volume costs only 2%, because the line still grows. The contingent BDT 268mn claim on debenture interest would cost BDT 6.6 a share if it ever had to be paid [1 p.30]; we deduct it in the bear case only. Risks without a modelled number: related-party trading with sponsor companies [1 p.35]; losses on the BDT 634mn share portfolio, which is already BDT 170mn under cost [1 p.24]; and thin trading at about BDT 4.2mn a day, which can move the price sharply either way.

Exhibit 33Input costs are the biggest single risk: imports +15% cut fair value to BDT 151; a faster new line lifts it to BDT 177
Risk / opportunityLine it movesFY2027F EPS (BDT)Fair value (BDT/share)vs base
Imported inputs +15% in USD in FY2027F (palm oil, LAB)Materials ratio; gross margin13.5151.4-0.1
Taka falls 10% in FY2027FImported material cost15.3157.3-0.1
Price/mix 3pp lower in FY2027F (price war)Revenue; gross margin15.8157.0-0.1
Brand spend +1pp of revenue (defending Tibet)Selling and distribution17.9165.5-0.0
Detergent volume -5pp in FY2027FDetergent revenue18.6165.8-0.0
Deposit yield 2.5pp lowerOther income18.8168.1-0.0
Imports +15% with a 45% imported shareMaterials ratio14.4154.0-0.1
Imports +15% with a 65% imported shareMaterials ratio12.5148.8-0.1
Cash payout cut to 30%Dividends; cash19.2168.0-0.0
Opportunity: new detergent line, volume +9% a yearDetergent revenue; capacity19.7177.40.0
Contingent debenture interest paidEquity bridge—162.7-0.0
Base—19.2169.30.0
Source: Model, one driver changed at a time [11] · vs base column is a ratio (e.g. -0.09 = -9%)
Exhibit 34Tornado: one-driver moves of BDT -18 to +8 a share around the base of BDT 169
BDT per share vs base
-20.0-10.0010.0Imported inputs +15% in USD in FY2027FPrice/mix 3pp lower in FY2027FTaka falls 10% in FY2027FOpportunity: new detergent line, volume +9% a yearContingent claim paidBrand spend +1pp of revenueDetergent volume -5pp in FY2027FCash payout cut to 30%Deposit yield 2.5pp lower-17.9-12.3-12.08.1-6.6-3.8-3.5-1.3-1.2
Data
Imported inputs +15% in USD in FY2027FPrice/mix 3pp lower in FY2027FTaka falls 10% in FY2027FOpportunity: new detergent line, volume +9% a yearContingent claim paidBrand spend +1pp of revenueDetergent volume -5pp in FY2027FCash payout cut to 30%Deposit yield 2.5pp lower
Change in fair value-17.90-12.30-12.008.10-6.60-3.80-3.50-1.30-1.20
Source: Model [11]

Catalysts and what to watch

  • FY2026 audited results and dividend (board met 29-Oct-2026): fourth-quarter margin, stock level and the cash/bonus split
  • Palm oil, LAB and caustic soda prices and the taka-dollar rate
  • Any announcement of the new production line its stock dividends were retained for
  • Price moves by Unilever, Square, ACI and Keya in detergent and soap
  • Resolution of the legacy loan fund and the BDT 268mn court-stayed claim; transfers of unclaimed dividends

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

DriverFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Sensitivity: extra volume growth a year, all categories, FY27F-28F (pp)0.0%———————
Sensitivity: extra change in imported-material cost in BDT, FY27F (level shift)0.0%———————
Imported share of materials (palm oil/soap noodles, LAB, perfume, chemicals)55.0%———————
VAT and SD, % of gross sales15.0%———————
Installed capacity (tonnes a year)50,000———————
Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - bear—————6.0%2.0%2.0%
Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - base—————7.0%5.0%5.0%
Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - bull—————8.0%8.0%8.0%
Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - active—————7.0%5.0%5.0%
Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - bear—————3.0%0.0%0.0%
Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - base—————4.0%3.0%3.0%
Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - bull—————5.0%6.0%6.0%
Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - active—————4.0%3.0%3.0%
Personal care (Tibet snow, powder, hair oil, toothpaste, other) volume growth—————6.0%5.0%5.0%
Price/mix change, all categories - bear—————5.5%3.5%3.5%
Price/mix change, all categories - base—————6.0%5.0%5.0%
Price/mix change, all categories - bull—————6.5%6.5%6.5%
Price/mix change, all categories - active—————6.0%5.0%5.0%
Imported material price in USD, change - bear—————3.0%10.0%4.0%
Imported material price in USD, change - base—————3.0%3.0%2.0%
Imported material price in USD, change - bull—————3.0%-4.0%0.0%
Imported material price in USD, change - active—————3.0%3.0%2.0%
BDT per USD, change - bear—————3.0%6.0%3.0%
BDT per USD, change - base—————3.0%2.0%2.0%
BDT per USD, change - bull—————3.0%0.0%1.0%
BDT per USD, change - active—————3.0%2.0%2.0%
Local materials and packaging (caustic soda, cartons, laminate), cost change—————6.0%6.0%6.0%
Factory overhead incl. depreciation (BDT mn)—————445485530
Selling and distribution, % of revenue (FY26F: 9M actual + 4Q at 4Q FY25 ratio)——————12.6%12.6%
Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - bear—————0.0%0.5%0.5%
Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - base—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - bull—————0.0%-0.3%-0.3%
Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - active—————0.0%0.0%0.0%
Administrative expenses (BDT mn)—————103111120
Yield on opening cash and fixed deposits—————8.0%8.0%7.5%
Dividend yield on the share portfolio (at market)—————3.0%3.0%3.0%
Finance cost (BDT mn)—————666
WPPF, % of profit before WPPF—————4.8%4.8%4.8%
Effective tax rate—————27.0%27.5%27.5%
Depreciation incl. right-of-use (BDT mn)—————263240
Capex (BDT mn)—————55160180
Inventory days (on cost of sales)—————130125120
Trade receivables, % of revenue—————0.9%0.9%0.9%
Advances, deposits and prepayments, % of revenue—————6.0%6.0%6.0%
Trade and other payables incl. accruals, % of cost of sales—————16.0%15.0%14.0%
Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - bear—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - base—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - bull—————40.0%40.0%40.0%
Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - active—————40.0%40.0%40.0%

Income statement

BDT mnFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Gross sales by category (incl. VAT)
Detergent powder———3,2423,6624,1534,5795,048
Soap: toilet (Tibet, Sandalina) and washing———2,5462,7713,0543,3033,573
Personal care: snow, powder, hair oil, other———9981,1751,3201,4551,604
Gross sales———6,7867,6078,5289,33810,225
Less: VAT and SD———-997-1,138-1,275-1,396-1,529
Revenue (net sales)4,1674,7055,3585,7896,4707,2527,9418,696
Revenue growth—12.9%13.9%8.1%11.8%12.1%9.5%9.5%
Production volume ('000 tonnes)———35.136.738.840.542.2
Capacity utilisation (50,000 t)———70.2%73.4%77.6%81.0%84.4%
Costs
Materials incl. stock change, % of revenue———67.0%65.4%66.4%66.7%66.7%
Factory overhead———-378-412-445-485-530
Cost of sales-3,364-3,793-4,169-4,254-4,642-5,263-5,785-6,330
Gross profit8039121,1881,5351,8271,9892,1562,367
Gross margin19.3%19.4%22.2%26.5%28.2%27.4%27.2%27.2%
Selling and distribution-430-493-585-703-822-910-1,001-1,096
Administrative-71-72-80-85-128-103-111-120
Operating profit (EBIT)3023485237468789771,0451,151
Other income (interest, dividends, securities)15747021457596108
Finance costs-4-2-42-27-5-6-6-6
Profit before WPPF3134205527409181,0461,1341,253
Contribution to WPPF-15-20-26-35-44-50-54-60
Profit before tax2984005257058749961,0801,194
Effective tax rate21.4%20.8%28.2%27.7%27.7%27.0%27.5%27.5%
Income tax (current and deferred)-64-83-148-196-242-269-297-328
Profit for the year234317377510632727783865
Shares (mn, after the FY25 10% bonus)40.7840.7840.7840.7840.7840.7840.7840.78
EPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares)5.747.779.2512.5015.5017.8319.2121.22
Cash DPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares)——3.014.135.917.137.688.49
Depreciation (incl. right-of-use)———2424263240
EBITDA———7719021,0031,0771,191

Balance sheet

BDT mnFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
PPE and right-of-use assets———285313342470610
Inventories———1,2261,4841,8751,9812,081
Trade receivables———2560657178
Advances, deposits and prepayments———553344435476522
Listed shares (FVOCI, at market)———576463463463463
Cash and fixed deposits———2977671,0241,2601,539
Total assets———2,9623,4324,2054,7235,293
Equity———2,0342,4162,9023,3943,946
Loan fund: government/BCIC debentures and interest (legacy)———326326326326326
Provision for gratuity———2331313131
Deferred tax liability———122222
Lease liabilities———46666
Short-term loans———100000
Trade and other payables (incl. accruals and tax provision)———477556842868886
Employee benefits (WPPF, welfare funds)———5364646464
Unclaimed dividend———2231313131
Total equity and liabilities———2,9623,4324,2054,7235,293
Check: assets - equity and liabilities———00000
Net cash and shares (cash + FDR + listed shares - loan fund - leases - loans)———5338991,1551,3911,670
Book value per share (BDT, 40.78mn shares)———49.8859.2471.1783.2496.78

Cash flow

BDT mnFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Profit for the year—————727783865
Depreciation—————263240
Change in working capital—————-201-129-133
Net cash from operating activities———966648553687772
Capex———-11-50-55-160-180
Cash dividends paid———-115-160-241-291-313
Borrowings and other financing, net———-745-10000
Net change in cash and FDR—————257236279
Check: change in cash vs balance sheet—————000
Free cash flow (OCF + capex)———955598498527592
OCF / profit———1.901.020.760.880.89

Quarterly

BDT mn9M FY25A4Q FY25AFY25A9M FY26A4Q FY26FFY26F4Q growth
Revenue4,7891,6806,4705,4001,8527,2520
Gross profit1,2935351,8271,4155741,9890
Operating profit5812978786633139770
Profit after tax4242086325012277270
Gross margin27.0%31.8%28.2%26.2%31.0%27.4%—
EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares)10.395.1115.5012.285.5617.83—

Ratios

RatioFY21AFY22AFY23AFY24AFY25AFY26FFY27FFY28F
Share price (BDT, June close, bonus-adjusted; forecast = 29-Oct-2026)273.7253.5375.4544.7454.6500.4500.4500.4
Gross margin19.3%19.4%22.2%26.5%28.2%27.4%27.2%27.2%
EBIT margin7.2%7.4%9.8%12.9%13.6%13.5%13.2%13.2%
Net margin5.6%6.7%7.0%8.8%9.8%10.0%9.9%10.0%
Selling and distribution, % of revenue10.3%10.5%10.9%12.1%12.7%12.5%12.6%12.6%
Other income, % of profit before tax5.0%18.6%13.4%3.0%5.2%7.6%8.9%9.1%
Equity (year-end, filings)1,2341,4931,8222,0342,4162,9023,3943,946
ROE (on average equity)21.0%23.2%22.8%26.4%28.4%27.4%24.9%23.6%
EPS growth—35.4%19.1%35.1%24.0%15.1%7.7%10.5%
Cash payout (DPS / EPS)——32.5%33.1%38.1%40.0%40.0%40.0%
P/E47.7x32.6x40.6x43.6x29.3x28.1x26.0x23.6x
Cash dividend yield——0.8%0.8%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.7%
P/B9.0x6.9x8.4x10.9x7.7x7.0x6.0x5.2x
EV (market cap - net cash and shares)———21,67817,63919,25019,01418,735
EV/EBITDA———28.1x19.6x19.2x17.7x15.7x
Median trailing P/E FY21-FY2540.6x———————
5-yr median gross margin (FY21-25)22.2%———————
5-yr median EBIT margin (FY21-25)9.8%———————
9-yr median EBIT margin (FY17-25)7.2%———————
8-yr median ROE on average equity (FY18-25)23.0%———————
5-yr median ROE (FY21-25)23.2%———————

Valuation

BDT mn unless statedFY27FFY28FFY29FFY30FFY31FFY32FFY33F
Revenue7,9418,6969,46210,22910,98611,72212,426
Revenue growth9.5%9.5%8.8%8.1%7.4%6.7%6.0%
EBIT margin13.2%13.2%12.6%11.9%11.3%10.6%10.0%
EBIT1,0451,1511,1911,2211,2411,2481,243
Less: WPPF and tax on EBIT-323-356-369-378-384-386-385
NOPAT721795822843857862858
Add: depreciation32404447515457
Less: capex-160-180-65-71-76-81-86
Less: increase in working capital (FY29F+: % of revenue at FY28F)-129-133-158-158-156-152-145
Free cash flow to firm (FCFF)465521643662675683684
Discount period (years from 30-Jun-2026, mid-year)0.51.52.53.54.55.56.5
Discount factor0.940.820.720.630.550.480.42
PV of FCFF435427462416372330289
Sum of PV of FCFF, FY27F-FY33F2,731——————
Terminal reinvestment rate = g / RONIC26.1%——————
Terminal value at FY33F8,243——————
PV of terminal value3,263——————
Enterprise value at 30-Jun-20265,994——————
Terminal value, % of EV54.4%——————
Add: cash and fixed deposits (FY26F)1,024——————
Add: listed shares at market (FY26F)463——————
Less: legacy loan fund, leases, gratuity; contingent claim in the bear (FY26F)-363——————
Equity value at 30-Jun-20267,119——————
DCF value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)182.4——————
DDM: FY26F DPS, paid ~Dec-2026 (BDT)7.13——————
DDM: FY27F DPS, paid ~Dec-2027 (BDT)7.68——————
DDM: FY28F DPS, paid ~Dec-2028 (BDT)8.49——————
DDM: FY28F EPS at the sustainable EBIT margin (BDT)16.46——————
DDM: value at Dec-2028 of later dividends = EPS x (1+g) x (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g)158.1——————
DDM value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)138.9——————
Weight: DCF70.0%——————
Weight: DDM30.0%——————
Fair value, active scenario (BDT/share)169.3——————
Fair value - bear (25%)121.2——————
Fair value - base (50%)169.3——————
Fair value - bull (25%)214.7——————
Probability-weighted fair value168.6——————
Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT)500.4——————
Cash, FDR and listed shares less loan fund, leases and gratuity per share, FY26F27.6——————
Justified forward P/E = (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g)9.1x——————
Implied FY26F P/E at base fair value9.5x——————
Implied FY27F P/E at base fair value8.8x——————
Implied FY27F dividend yield at base fair value4.5%——————
Reverse DCF: cost of equity that equates DCF value to price (base g)8.5%——————
Reverse DCF: terminal g that equates DCF value to price12.9%——————
Reverse DCF: EBIT margin FY27F+ that equates DCF value to price (base Ke, g)30.5%——————
Bear: DCF / DDM (BDT/share)121.9119.5—————
Bull: DCF / DDM (BDT/share)238.9158.3—————

WACC

InputValue
Risk-free rate (BD 10-yr T-bond cut-off yield)9.3%
Equity risk premium7.5%
Raw beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX)0.48
Blume-adjusted beta0.65
Beta used (floor 0.6)0.65
Cost of equity14.2%
WACC14.2%
Terminal growth (nominal BDT)6.0%
Return on new capital / sustainable ROE (terminal)23.0%
Discount from 30-Jun-2026 to 29-Oct-2026 (years; negative = roll forward)-0.33
Sustainable EBIT margin (fade target, FY33F)10.0%

Sensitivity

Grid 1: terminal g (rows) x cost of equity (columns), DCF value BDT/shareCoE 10.15%CoE 12.16%CoE 14.16%CoE 15.16%CoE 16.16%
g 5.0%277.6211.9174.9161.9151.3
g 6.0%314.4227.0182.4167.4155.3
g 7.0%373.8247.4191.6173.9160.1
g 8.0%487.1277.2203.5182.1165.8
g 9.0%794.5325.2219.7192.5172.9
Grid 2: volume growth vs base, all categories (rows) x imported-material cost in BDT from FY27F (columns): fair value, BDT/shareImports -20%Imports -10%Imports +0%Imports +10%Imports +20%
Fair value at volume -5.0% a year177.5164.2150.8137.4124.1
Fair value at volume -2.5% a year188.1173.9159.8145.6131.5
Fair value at volume +0.0% a year199.2184.3169.3154.4139.5
Fair value at volume +2.5% a year211.0195.3179.5163.7147.9
Fair value at volume +5.0% a year223.6206.9190.2173.6156.9
Grid 3: same inputs: FY27F EPS, BDTImports -20%Imports -10%Imports +0%Imports +10%Imports +20%
EPS FY27F at volume -5.0% a year26.9722.4217.8813.338.79
EPS FY27F at volume -2.5% a year27.8623.2018.5413.889.23
EPS FY27F at volume +0.0% a year28.7623.9819.2114.449.66
EPS FY27F at volume +2.5% a year29.6524.7619.8814.9910.10
EPS FY27F at volume +5.0% a year30.5425.5420.5415.5410.54

Peers

MetricKOHINOORUNILEVERCLRECKITTBENMARICOACI
Market cap (BDT bn)20.437.615.283.215.6
P/E TTM29711813—
P/B82141182
Dividend yield00000

FAQ

What is Kohinoor Chemical's fair value?
We estimate BDT 121-215 a share, base 169, from a DCF (70%) and a dividend discount model (30%) at a 14.2% cost of equity [11]. The price on 29-Oct-2026 was BDT 500.4 [8].
Which brands does Kohinoor Chemical sell?
Tibet detergent powder, Tibet and Sandalina toilet soaps, washing soap, Tibet snow, powder, hair oil, toothpaste and shaving cream; detergent was 48% of FY2025 gross sales [1 p.31].
Who owns Kohinoor Chemical?
The sponsors (Karim family; chairman Mohammad Obaidul Karim, managing director Md. Rezaul Karim) hold 50.57% and the public 49.43% [1 p.25] [2 p.1].
What dividend does KOHINOOR pay?
For FY2025, 65% cash (BDT 6.50 a share on 37.07mn shares) plus a 10% stock dividend; for FY2024, 50% cash plus 10% stock [7].
What is the Kohinoor loan fund?
BDT 326mn of government and BCIC debentures and pre-1983 interest from the BCIC era, carried as a long-term liability since 1991-92; a further BDT 268mn of interest is contingent and stayed by a court [1 p.27] [1 p.30].
Which results does this report use?
The audited FY2025 statements (year to 30-Jun-2025) and the unaudited nine months to 31-Mar-2026. The FY2026 results (board meeting 29-Oct-2026) will be added when filed.

Sources

  1. Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited, auditor's report and financial statements for the year to 30-Jun-2025 (FY2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) unaudited financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 (Q3 FY2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited Annual Report 2024 (year to 30-Jun-2024; FY2023 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  4. Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited Annual Report 2022 (year to 30-Jun-2022; FY2021 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited Annual Report 2020 (year to 30-Jun-2020; FY2019 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Ltd. financial statements for the year to 30-Jun-2018 (FY2017 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. DSE announcements for KOHINOOR, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (quarterly EPS releases; FY2024 and FY2025 dividends; EGM and PLC name change; CRISL ratings; auditor emphasis of matter; FY2026 board meeting notice 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:KOHINOOR weekly and monthly bars (bonus-adjusted), DSEX weekly, to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  9. AnalystBro screener: DSE consumer peers (UNILEVERCL, RECKITTBEN, MARICO, ACI), close 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  10. Bangladesh Bank, Treasury auction cut-off yields (10-year bond 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026; 364-day bill 8.79% on 26-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  11. AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31

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