Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) valuation report: fair value BDT 121–215 (Oct 2026)
Fair value range BDT 121-215: Tibet detergent and soaps grow ~10% a year but a 14% margin is near its peak
Fair value BDT 121-215 (base 169, 9.5x FY2026F EPS) against a price of 500.4; the price corresponds to a 8.5% cost of equity or a 30% EBIT margin on our forecast.
For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: Medium
FCFF DCF (cost of equity 14.2%, g 6%) 70% · DDM 30% · = 9.5x FY2026F P/E, 4.5% FY2027F yield
- Operating business৳142
- Cash, deposits and shares less legacy debt (FY2026F)৳28
- Detergent is 48% of gross sales and grew 13% in FY2025; production +4.6% [1 p.31] [1 p.36] →
- Gross margin rose from 18% (FY2019) to 28.2% (FY2025) but slipped to 26.2% in 9M FY2026 [2 p.2] →
- BDT 326mn state-era loan fund and a BDT 268mn court-stayed claim remain [1 p.27] [1 p.30] →
- We forecast EPS BDT 17.83 in FY2026F and BDT 21.22 in FY2028F [11] →
- Fair value range BDT 121-215, base 169; the price of BDT 500.4 is above it [11] →
| BDT mn (June year end) | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,789 | 6,470 | 7,252 | 7,941 | 8,696 |
| Revenue growth | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Production ('000 tonnes) | 35.1 | 36.7 | 38.8 | 40.5 | 42.2 |
| Gross margin | 26.5% | 28.2% | 27.4% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| EBIT margin | 12.9% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Profit for the year | 510 | 632 | 727 | 783 | 865 |
| EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares) | 12.50 | 15.50 | 17.83 | 19.21 | 21.22 |
| EPS growth | 35.1% | 24.0% | 15.1% | 7.7% | 10.5% |
| Cash DPS (BDT) | 4.13 | 5.91 | 7.13 | 7.68 | 8.49 |
| P/E | 43.6x | 29.3x | 28.1x | 26.1x | 23.6x |
| ROE (on average equity) | 26.4% | 28.4% | 27.4% | 24.9% | 23.6% |
| Cash dividend yield | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
Investment case: detergent and Tibet soaps grew revenue 8% a year; fair value range BDT 121-215 as margins normalise
Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) PLC makes Tibet and Sandalina soaps, Tibet snow and powder, hair oil and, above all, detergent powder at its factory in Tejgaon, Dhaka [1 p.13]. Detergent was 48% of FY2025 gross sales, soaps 36% and personal care 16%; net revenue was BDT 6.47bn and profit BDT 632mn [1 p.31] [1 p.10]. The company was a state enterprise under BCIC until 1988; the sponsors, now led by chairman Mohammad Obaidul Karim and managing director Md. Rezaul Karim, hold 50.57% [1 p.13] [1 p.25] [2 p.1].
This is a growth story, not a mature one. Revenue grew 8.4% a year from FY2019 to FY2025, production rose to 36,702 tonnes (73.4% of a 50,000-tonne capacity) and the gross margin rose from 18.0% to 28.2% as prices ran ahead of costs in FY2023-25 [5 p.56] [1 p.36]. The nine months to March 2026 kept growing: revenue +12.8% to BDT 5,400mn and EPS BDT 12.28 against 10.39, although the gross margin slipped to 26.2% from 27.0% [2 p.2]. The FY2026 annual results were due at the board meeting of 29-Oct-2026 and were not yet published when we wrote [7]; our FY2026F is the nine months plus a fourth quarter built from drivers.
We put fair value at BDT 121-215 a share, base 169. The base blends a free-cash-flow DCF at a 14.2% cost of equity and 6% terminal growth (BDT 182, 70%) with a dividend discount model (BDT 139, 30%) [11]. It equals 9.5x our FY2026F EPS of BDT 17.83. The price of BDT 500.4 on 29-Oct-2026 [8] is above the range: 28.8x reported EPS for the 12 months to March 2026. On our forecast the price corresponds to a 8.5% cost of equity, or 12.9% growth for ever, or an EBIT margin of 30.5% from FY2027F against 13.6% in FY2025 [11].
Bulls say
- Volume is growing: tonnes +4.6% in FY2025 and gross sales +12.1% [1 p.31] [1 p.36]. Detergent, the largest line, rose 13.0% and powder 36.6%. In our bull case FY2028F EPS reaches BDT 34 [11].
- The balance sheet is liquid: BDT 1.25bn of cash and fixed deposits and BDT 504mn of listed shares at March 2026, and no bank debt [2 p.1].
- CRISL raised the long-term rating to AA+ in August 2026 from AA a year earlier [7].
Bears say
- Margins look like a peak: EBIT margin was 5.9-7.4% in FY2019-22 and 13.6% in FY2025 [5 p.56] [1 p.10]; the 9M FY2026 gross margin is already 0.8pp lower [2 p.2].
- Palm-based oils and LAB are imported and priced in dollars. Imports 15% dearer in FY2027F cut that year's EPS to BDT 13.5 [11].
- Governance flags: auditor emphasis of matter on unclaimed dividends two years running, a BDT 268mn contingent claim on old government debentures, and BDT 634mn (cost) of listed shares marked down to BDT 463mn [1 p.2] [1 p.30] [1 p.24].
Data
| Oct 24 | Nov 24 | Dec 24 | Jan 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 25 | Apr 25 | May 25 | May 25 | Jun 25 | Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 | May 26 | Jun 26 | Jul 26 | Aug 26 | Aug 26 | Sep 26 | Oct 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOHINOOR | 100.00 | 99.30 | 94.70 | 96.40 | 106.70 | 101.60 | 100.90 | 95.80 | 92.70 | 101.20 | 101.90 | 108.20 | 107.60 | 110.50 | 108.20 | 105.20 | 106.50 | 110.40 | 109.80 | 108.20 | 106.30 | 108.80 | 108.60 | 118.30 | 113.80 | 111.40 | 106.60 |
| DSEX | 100.00 | 101.90 | 97.10 | 98.80 | 98.50 | 99.00 | 99.00 | 93.20 | 89.60 | 96.40 | 102.90 | 106.80 | 103.00 | 97.40 | 95.60 | 92.90 | 97.00 | 104.00 | 101.80 | 100.00 | 99.80 | 105.00 | 110.40 | 111.50 | 107.70 | 105.20 | 103.00 |
Data
| Low | High |
|---|
Sponsors own 50.57%; a BDT 326mn state-era loan fund and a BDT 268mn contingent claim stay on the books
Kohinoor Chemical Company was a fully government-owned unit of Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) until 5-May-1988, when it became a public limited company. The government vested 51% in BCIC, sold 34% to the public and set aside 15% for staff; BCIC's 51% passed to the sponsor director on 3-Aug-1993 [1 p.13]. The legacy shows in the balance sheet: a BDT 326mn 'loan fund' of government and BCIC debentures and interest, carried since 1991-92 on fat supplied under a US relief grant, and a BDT 268mn contingent claim for debenture interest that a court has stopped by injunction [1 p.27] [1 p.30]. A BCIC current account of BDT 16mn is 'subject to confirmation' [1 p.29].
The sponsors hold 50.57% and the public 49.43% [1 p.25]. Paid-up capital has grown only through bonus shares: 10% stock dividends for FY2022, FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 took the share count to 40,777,893 [1 p.26] [2 p.3]. The company changed its name to Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) PLC from 3-Jun-2026 after an EGM, as the Companies Act now requires [7] [1 p.6]. There was no rights issue, bond or placement in the last 24 months [7]. As a non-bank company it faces no Bangladesh Bank payout cap; BSEC rules require unclaimed dividends older than three years to go to the Capital Market Stabilization Fund.
Ownership and control shape the risks a minority shareholder carries. The sponsors hold just over half the shares, so they control the board, the dividend split between cash and bonus shares, and capital allocation. Three choices stand out in the filings. First, the company invests surplus cash in a portfolio of listed shares rather than paying it out: BDT 634mn at cost, largely bank stocks that have fallen, with a cumulative fair-value loss of BDT 170mn at June 2025 [1 p.24]; a soap maker gains nothing operationally from owning bank shares. Second, it pays only about a third of profit in cash and the rest as bonus shares, which keeps cash inside the company. Third, it trades with companies linked to the sponsors (Orion Pharma, Orion Infusion, Reedisha) [1 p.35]. None of these is improper on its face, and the amounts are disclosed, but each is a reason the market may not credit all of the cash to minority holders.
Governance needs watching. The auditor added an emphasis of matter for FY2024 and FY2025: unclaimed dividends were not transferred to the fund on time (BDT 8.3mn moved in September 2025) [1 p.2] [7]. The company trades with sponsor-linked firms: sales to Orion Pharma and Orion Infusion and purchases of BDT 106.7mn from Reedisha in FY2025 [1 p.35]. It holds a BDT 634mn (cost) portfolio of listed shares, mostly banks and pharma (Beacon Pharma, Uttara Bank, Adntel, Beximco, Orion Pharma), worth BDT 463mn at June 2025 [1 p.24]. Directors take no remuneration, the 2022 report says [4 p.59]. Average turnover is about BDT 4.2mn a day [8].
| Shares (mn) | Note | |
|---|---|---|
| 1988 paid-up capital | 5.00 | BCIC 51% -> sponsor 1993 |
| After FY2021-22 20% bonus | 30.64 | — |
| After FY2022-23 10% bonus | 33.70 | — |
| After FY2023-24 10% bonus | 37.07 | Jun-2025 count |
| After FY2024-25 10% bonus | 40.78 | Credited Jan-2026 |
| Sponsors / public | 50.57% / 49.43% | — |
| BDT mn, Jun-2025 | Amount | Treatment in our valuation |
|---|---|---|
| Debentures: Government of Bangladesh | 103.5 | Deducted as debt |
| Debentures: BCIC | 184.0 | Deducted as debt |
| Interest payable to government (pre-1983) | 38.6 | Deducted as debt |
| Contingent debenture interest (court injunction) | 268.1 | Deducted in the bear only (BDT 6.6 a share) |
| BCIC current account (subject to confirmation) | 16.0 | In payables |
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 06-Nov-2024 | FY2024 dividend: 50% cash, 10% stock |
| 19-Nov-2024 | Auditor emphasis of matter, FY2024 |
| 26-Oct-2025 | FY2025 dividend: 65% cash, 10% stock; EGM for PLC name |
| 02-Nov-2025 | Auditor emphasis of matter, FY2025 (unclaimed dividend) |
| 03-Jun-2026 | Name changed to Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) PLC |
| 23-Aug-2026 | CRISL AA+ / ST-2 (from AA, Aug-2025) |
| 29-Oct-2026 | Board meeting on FY2026 audited accounts (results not yet posted) |
Detergent grew 13% and is 48% of sales; we forecast revenue +12% in FY2026F and +9% in FY2027F
Revenue note 26 splits gross sales by product [1 p.31]. Detergent powder sold BDT 3,662mn in FY2025 (+13.0%), toilet soap BDT 1,571mn (+14.7%), washing soap BDT 1,199mn (+2.0%), Tibet snow and cream BDT 392mn (-1.9%), powder BDT 477mn (+36.6%) and hair oil BDT 162mn (+32.7%). VAT and supplementary duty took 14.95% of gross sales, leaving net revenue of BDT 6,470mn (+11.8%). Production was 36,702 tonnes against 35,091 (+4.6%) [1 p.36], so price and mix added about 7.2%. The company does not publish volume by product, so we split growth with labelled assumptions.
Detergent is the engine. Bangladeshi households are moving from bar laundry soap to powder, which is why washing soap barely grew while detergent rose 13%. Kohinoor sells mostly in the mass and rural market under the Tibet name; the premium end belongs to Unilever's Wheel and Surf Excel, and Square Toiletries, ACI and Keya compete in the middle (competitor brands are our context; the filings name none). In soaps, Tibet and Sandalina face Lux and Lifebuoy (Unilever), Meril (Square), Keya and Savlon (ACI). Tibet snow, a long-standing cold-cream brand, shrank in FY2025 while powder and hair oil grew fast from small bases [1 p.31].
Our base grows detergent volume 7% in FY2026F and 5% a year after, soaps 4% then 3%, and personal care 6%. Price and mix add 6% in FY2026F and 5% a year after, below the FY2025 pace as inflation eases. Revenue is BDT 7.25bn in FY2026F (+12.1%) and BDT 8.70bn in FY2028F [11]. The fourth quarter of FY2026F (April-June 2026) needs 10.2% growth over the same quarter of FY2025, against 12.8% in the nine months and 11.0% in the March quarter [2 p.2]: a modest slowdown because the price increases of 2025 annualise.
| BDT mn, gross of VAT | FY24A | FY25A | Growth | Share FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detergent powder | 3,241.9 | 3,661.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Toilet soap (Tibet, Sandalina) | 1,370.2 | 1,571.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Washing (laundry) soap | 1,175.9 | 1,199.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Snow and cream (Tibet snow) | 400.0 | 392.3 | -0.0 | 0.1 |
| Powder (talcum, Tibet) | 349.1 | 476.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Hair oil | 121.8 | 161.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Miscellaneous | 100.8 | 111.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Toothpaste and shaving cream | 25.9 | 32.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Gross sales | 6,785.6 | 7,607.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| Less VAT and SD | -996.6 | -1,137.7 | — | — |
| Net revenue | 5,789.0 | 6,469.7 | 0.1 | — |
Data
| Detergent | Toilet soap | Washing soap | Powder | Snow & cream | Hair oil | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 gross sales | 3,661.90 | 1,571.40 | 1,199.30 | 476.80 | 392.30 | 161.60 | 144.10 |
| Growth | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detergent volume | — | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Soap volume | — | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Personal care volume | — | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Production tonnes | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Price/mix | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Net revenue | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| BDT mn | 9M FY25 | 4Q FY25 | 9M FY26 | 4Q FY26F | FY26F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,789 | 1,680 | 5,400 | 1,852 | 7,252 |
| Gross margin | 27.0% | 31.8% | 26.2% | 31.0% | 27.4% |
| Profit after tax | 424 | 208 | 501 | 227 | 727 |
| EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares) | 10.39 | 5.11 | 12.28 | 5.56 | 17.83 |
Unilever, Square, ACI and Keya set the price umbrella; Kohinoor grew tonnes 4.6% in FY2025 under it
Kohinoor sells soap, detergent and toiletries in every district through distributors who pay in advance: trade receivables were only BDT 60mn, under 1% of revenue, at June 2025 [1 p.9]. Advance-against-sales balances sit with dealers such as Rokeya, Bali and P.P Enterprise [1 p.29]. Selling and distribution cost 12.7% of revenue in FY2025: salaries of the sales force BDT 495mn, advertising BDT 259mn and carriage BDT 36mn [1 p.32]. Advertising rose 10% while revenue rose 12%, so the brands grew without heavier spending.
The market is contested by bigger budgets. Unilever Bangladesh (not listed; its listed affiliate UNILEVERCL sells personal care) leads in premium soap and detergent, and Square Toiletries, ACI and Keya Cosmetics fight in the mass market. Market-size and share data for laundry and soap categories are not published by BBS or the regulators, so we do not quote shares; this is a labelled gap. What the filings do show is Kohinoor's own growth: tonnes up 4.6% and gross sales up 12.1% in FY2025 [1 p.31] [1 p.36], faster than inflation, which says the Tibet brands held or gained ground in their tier.
The detergent switch is the core of the growth case. A generation ago most Bangladeshi households washed clothes with bar soap; powder was a premium urban product. Rising incomes, more synthetic fabrics and the spread of small single-use sachets have moved rural buyers to powder, and the cheapest powders compete on price per wash rather than brand. Kohinoor's own numbers show the shift: detergent grew 13.0% and washing soap 2.0% in FY2025, and detergent is now larger than all of its soaps together [1 p.31]. The shift has room to run, but it also attracts the largest competitors, which already have national distribution and bigger advertising budgets. Our base keeps detergent volume growth at 5% a year after FY2026F, slower than in FY2025, for that reason.
How the competitors behave matters for both volume and price. Unilever's local operation is the price leader in laundry and soap, and Square Toiletries, ACI and Keya follow with value brands and heavy trade promotions. In a year of falling input costs the leaders tend to hold prices and spend on promotion; in a year of rising costs they raise prices first, which gives the value brands room to follow. Kohinoor's advertising was 4.0% of revenue in FY2025 [1 p.32], modest for an FMCG company, so a promotional fight would raise its costs before it hurt volume. Our bear case adds half a point of revenue in brand spend and cuts price/mix by 1.5 points; the risk table shows one point of extra spend alone costs BDT 4 a share [11].
Demand drivers are population (about 1% a year), rising rural incomes and the switch from bar soap to powder. Price is the risk: if Unilever or Square cut prices to win back mass-market volume, Kohinoor would have to follow. In our risk table, a 3-point lower price/mix in FY2027F cuts fair value to BDT 157, and 5 points less detergent volume to BDT 166 [11].
| Category | Kohinoor brands | Main competitors (context) |
|---|---|---|
| Detergent powder | Tibet detergent | Unilever (Wheel, Surf Excel), Square, ACI, Keya |
| Toilet soap | Tibet, Sandalina | Unilever (Lux, Lifebuoy), Square (Meril), Keya, ACI (Savlon) |
| Washing soap | Tibet ball and bar soap | Local and regional makers |
| Snow, cream, powder | Tibet snow, Tibet powder | Unilever, Square, Keya |
| Hair oil | Tibet and other | MARICO (Parachute), Square |
| BDT mn | FY24A | FY25A | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales salaries and allowances | 414.5 | 494.6 | 0.2 |
| Publicity and advertising | 235.5 | 259.3 | 0.1 |
| Carriage outward | 32.2 | 36.1 | 0.1 |
| Total selling and distribution | 703.3 | 821.5 | 0.2 |
Gross margin 28.2% is near a peak; each 10% on imported inputs moves FY2027F EPS about 25%
Materials are most of the cost. In FY2025 raw materials consumed were BDT 3,762mn and packing materials BDT 560mn, together 67% of revenue; factory overhead was BDT 412mn, including gas and fuel BDT 117mn and salaries BDT 217mn [1 p.31]. The main inputs are palm-based oils and soap noodles for soap, linear alkylbenzene (LAB) and sodium sulphate for detergent, caustic soda, perfume, and cartons, laminates and tubes from local suppliers [1 p.28]. The statements do not split imported and local purchases; we assume 55% is imported or priced off import parity (a labelled assumption).
The gross margin rose from 18.0% in FY2019 to 28.2% in FY2025 [5 p.56] [1 p.10]. Most of the gain came in FY2023-25, when prices rose faster than input costs after the taka's fall. That trend has turned: the 9M FY2026 gross margin was 26.2% against 27.0% [2 p.2]. Our materials ratio moves each year with imported prices in dollars, the BDT/USD rate and local costs, divided by price/mix. In the base the gross margin is 27.4% in FY2026F and 27.2% in FY2028F [11].
We tried to cross-check the 55% import share. The FY2025 statements give cash paid to suppliers (BDT 5,786mn) but no import-payment or letter-of-credit line, and the VAT-on-import note does not give the import value [1 p.12] [1 p.24]; so the share is a labelled assumption. Its effect is second-order on our base (fair value BDT 169 at 45% and BDT 170 at 65%) but matters in a cost shock: with imports 15% dearer in FY2027F, fair value is BDT 154 at a 45% share and BDT 149 at 65%, against BDT 151 at 55% [11].
The input story in plain terms: soap is mostly fat. Toilet and laundry soap use soap noodles or palm stearin and palm fatty-acid distillate, priced off Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil in dollars; a jump in palm oil, as in 2022, raises the cost of every bar within a quarter or two. Detergent powder is mostly sodium sulphate filler, soda ash and LAB, the active surfactant, which follows crude oil and is imported. Caustic soda, used to saponify the fats, is now made in Bangladesh by several chlor-alkali plants, so it moves with local gas and power prices more than with the dollar. Packaging (cartons, laminates, tubes and bottles) is local but uses imported resin and paper. Gas, power and wages sit in factory overhead, which rose 9% in FY2025 [1 p.31]. When all of these rise together, as in 2022-23, the company has raised prices with a lag; the gross margin dipped and then overshot.
Sensitivity: each 10% rise in imported input costs in taka, not passed on, moves FY2027F EPS from BDT 19.21 to BDT 14.44, about 25% [11]. Kohinoor has passed costs on before; the risk is a year when it cannot. Wages and gas also matter: factory salaries rose 12% in FY2025 [1 p.31].
| BDT mn | FY24A | FY25A | % of revenue FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw materials consumed | 3,442.0 | 3,761.9 | 0.6 |
| Packing materials consumed | 462.8 | 560.1 | 0.1 |
| Factory overhead | 377.9 | 412.0 | 0.1 |
| of which gas and fuel | 117.0 | 117.4 | 0.0 |
| of which depreciation | 17.4 | 17.3 | 0.0 |
| Cost of sales (after stock change) | 4,254.3 | 4,642.2 | 0.7 |
Data
| FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 17.90 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.70 | 19.30 | 19.40 | 22.20 | 26.50 | 28.20 | 27.40 | 27.20 | 27.20 |
| EBIT margin | 6.10 | 6.30 | 6.20 | 5.90 | 7.20 | 7.40 | 9.80 | 12.90 | 13.60 | 13.50 | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| Volume vs base | Imports -20% | Imports -10% | Imports +0% | Imports +10% | Imports +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.0% a year | 178 | 164 | 151 | 137 | 124 |
| -2.5% a year | 188 | 174 | 160 | 146 | 132 |
| +0.0% a year | 199 | 184 | 169 | 154 | 140 |
| +2.5% a year | 211 | 195 | 180 | 164 | 148 |
| +5.0% a year | 224 | 207 | 190 | 174 | 157 |
| Volume vs base | Imports -20% | Imports -10% | Imports +0% | Imports +10% | Imports +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.0% a year | 26.97 | 22.42 | 17.88 | 13.33 | 8.79 |
| -2.5% a year | 27.86 | 23.20 | 18.54 | 13.88 | 9.23 |
| +0.0% a year | 28.76 | 23.98 | 19.21 | 14.44 | 9.66 |
| +2.5% a year | 29.65 | 24.76 | 19.88 | 14.99 | 10.10 |
| +5.0% a year | 30.54 | 25.54 | 20.54 | 15.54 | 10.54 |
The plant ran at 73% in FY2025 and reaches 84% by FY2028F; we assume a new line costing BDT 340mn
The Tejgaon plant has a stated capacity of 50,000 tonnes a year. It made 36,702 tonnes in FY2025 (73.4%) and 35,091 in FY2024 (70.2%) [1 p.36]. Capex was small: BDT 10.9mn in FY2024 and BDT 49.6mn in FY2025, against depreciation of about BDT 24mn [1 p.12] [1 p.34]; there were no capital commitments at June 2025 [1 p.35]. In the nine months to March 2026 it spent BDT 36.8mn [2 p.4].
On our volume forecast utilisation reaches 81% in FY2027F and 84% in FY2028F [11]. The board kept the 10% stock dividends of FY2024 and FY2025 'to be utilized for capital machineries, construction, and major overhauling' [7], which points to a new line, but no project, cost or date has been announced. We therefore assume capex of BDT 160mn in FY2027F and BDT 180mn in FY2028F, and 1.5x depreciation a year after, a labelled assumption. If a new detergent line fills faster (volume +9% a year), fair value rises to BDT 177 [11].
Data
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 35.10 | 36.70 | 38.80 | 40.50 | 42.20 |
Nine-year record: EBIT margin median 7.2% (FY2017-25) against 14% in FY2025; ROE median 23%
Nine years of filings set the base for 'normal'. In FY2017 Kohinoor sold BDT 3,393mn and in FY2018 BDT 3,661mn, with EBIT margins of 6.1% and 6.3% and profit of BDT 147mn and BDT 154mn [6 p.6]. Equity was only BDT 554mn and BDT 728mn [6 p.5]. Across FY2017-25 the median EBIT margin is 7.2% and the median ROE on average equity 23.0% [11]. The margin was flat at 6-7% for six years while revenue grew; it rose only from FY2023, when the company lifted prices faster than its costs after the taka's fall. Nothing in the filings shows a structural change in mix or pricing power that would keep it at 13-14%, which is why our sustainable margin of 10.0% sits nearer the long-run average than the recent peak.
Seven years of the recent filings show steady revenue and a margin step-up. Revenue grew from BDT 3,996mn in FY2019 to BDT 6,470mn in FY2025 and profit from BDT 174mn to BDT 632mn [5 p.56] [1 p.10]. The EBIT margin was 5.9-7.4% in FY2019-22, then 9.8%, 12.9% and 13.6% [4 p.83] [3 p.8]. ROE on average equity rose from 21.0% in FY2021 to 28.4% in FY2025 (median 23.2%), held down by the cash and shares on the balance sheet [11]. Other income is volatile: BDT 74mn in FY2022, BDT 21mn in FY2024 and BDT 45mn in FY2025, after a BDT 15mn loss on share sales [1 p.33].
FY2023 figures are read from the page image of the FY2024 report, where the text layer misreads revenue as 5,397.5; the image shows 5,357.5, which reconciles with cost of sales and gross profit [3 p.8]. The FY2025 statements restate FY2024 equity and NAV [1 p.9].
| BDT mn | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,393 | 3,661 | 3,996 | 3,900 | 4,167 | 4,705 | 5,358 | 5,789 | 6,470 |
| Gross profit | 609 | 658 | 720 | 728 | 803 | 912 | 1,188 | 1,535 | 1,828 |
| Gross margin | 17.9% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 19.3% | 19.4% | 22.2% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| EBIT | 208 | 230 | 247 | 228 | 302 | 348 | 523 | 746 | 878 |
| EBIT margin | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| Profit for the year | 147 | 154 | 174 | 168 | 234 | 317 | 377 | 510 | 632 |
| EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares) | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.28 | 4.12 | 5.74 | 7.77 | 9.25 | 12.50 | 15.50 |
Data
| FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | 3.60 | 3.79 | 4.28 | 4.12 | 5.74 | 7.77 | 9.25 | 12.50 | 15.50 | 17.83 | 19.21 | 21.22 |
Data
| FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (average equity) | 21.00 | 23.20 | 22.80 | 26.40 | 28.40 | 27.40 | 24.90 | 23.60 |
| Net margin | 5.60 | 6.70 | 7.00 | 8.80 | 9.80 | 10.00 | 9.90 | 10.00 |
BDT 28 a share of cash and shares net of legacy debt; cash payout 40% gives FY2026F DPS BDT 7.1
Operating cash flow was BDT 966mn in FY2024 and BDT 648mn in FY2025, when inventories rose by BDT 258mn [1 p.12] [1 p.34]. In the nine months to March 2026 it was BDT 735mn against BDT 925mn; the company blamed a further stock build, with inventories at BDT 1,834mn [2 p.4] [2 p.1] [7]. Payables and accruals rose too (BDT 773mn and BDT 492mn), which kept cash flow positive. We assume inventory of 130 days of cost of sales at June 2026, easing to 120 days, so operating cash flow is BDT 553mn in FY2026F and BDT 772mn in FY2028F [11].
The balance sheet holds BDT 768mn of cash and fixed deposits and BDT 463mn of listed shares at June 2025, against no bank debt, BDT 326mn of the legacy loan fund and small leases [1 p.9]. By March 2026 cash and deposits were BDT 1,247mn and the shares BDT 504mn [2 p.1]. Net of the loan fund, leases and gratuity, that is BDT 27.6 a share at June 2026F, part of our DCF bridge. The share portfolio cost BDT 634mn and is marked to market through other comprehensive income; it is not part of the soap business [1 p.24].
Dividends combine cash and bonus shares. Cash dividends were BDT 122.5mn for FY2023, BDT 168.5mn for FY2024 (50%) and BDT 241.0mn for FY2025 (65%), 32%, 33% and 38% of profit, each with a 10% stock dividend [1 p.27] [2 p.3] [7]. Bonus shares do not change value, so we model cash only: a 40% payout gives a FY2026F cash DPS of BDT 7.13 on today's shares [11]. The FY2026 dividend was to be set at the 29-Oct-2026 board meeting and has not been published.
| BDT mn | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash from operations | 966 | 648 | 553 | 687 | 772 |
| Capex | -11 | -50 | -55 | -160 | -180 |
| Free cash flow | 955 | 598 | 498 | 527 | 592 |
| Cash dividends paid | -115 | -160 | -241 | -291 | -313 |
| OCF / profit | 1.9x | 1.0x | 0.8x | 0.9x | 0.9x |
| BDT mn | Jun-24 | Jun-25 | Jun-26F | Jun-27F | Jun-28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and fixed deposits | 297 | 768 | 1,024 | 1,260 | 1,539 |
| Listed shares (at market) | 576 | 463 | 463 | 463 | 463 |
| Inventories | 1,226 | 1,484 | 1,874 | 1,981 | 2,081 |
| Loan fund (legacy) | -326 | -326 | -326 | -326 | -326 |
| Equity | 2,034 | 2,416 | 2,902 | 3,394 | 3,946 |
| Book value per share (BDT) | 49.88 | 59.24 | 71.17 | 83.24 | 96.78 |
| FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash dividend (BDT mn) | 122.5 | 168.5 | 241.0 | 290.9 | 313.3 |
| Cash dividend rate on face value | 40% | 50% | 65% | — | — |
| Stock dividend | 10% | 10% | 10% | n.a. | n.a. |
| Cash payout | 32.5% | 33.1% | 38.1% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
We forecast EPS of BDT 17.83 in FY2026F and BDT 21.22 by FY2028F as volume grows and margins ease
The forecast builds each line from its driver. Revenue comes from the three categories (volume x price). Cost of sales for FY2026F is the nine-month actual plus a fourth quarter at the fourth-quarter FY2025 cost ratio (68.2%), raised by the 0.8-point rise seen in the nine months; from FY2027F the materials ratio moves with input prices, the taka and price/mix, and factory overhead rises with wages and the new line. Selling cost stays near 12.6% of revenue, administration grows 8% a year from BDT 103mn, and other income is 8% on opening cash and deposits plus a 3% dividend yield on the share portfolio. WPPF is 4.76% and tax 27.5% (27.7% in FY2025, 27.0% in the nine months) [1 p.10] [2 p.2].
FY2026F EPS is BDT 17.83 (+15.1%): nine months of BDT 12.28 plus a fourth quarter of BDT 5.56 against BDT 5.11 a year earlier (8.8%) [2 p.2] [11]. The fourth quarter grows more slowly than the nine months (EPS +18%) for named reasons. The fourth quarter (April-June) is seasonally the strongest for margin: it carries the year-end stock count and audit adjustments and, in FY2025 and FY2026, the Eid-ul-Adha selling season for soap and detergent; the FY2025 fourth-quarter gross margin was 31.8% against 27.0% in the nine months. We keep that seasonal premium but lower it by the 0.8-point cost rise of the nine months. Second, FY2025's other income of BDT 45mn fell almost entirely in its fourth quarter (the nine months showed none), and the gross margin trend is down. No residual or plug line is used. FY2027F EPS is BDT 19.21 and FY2028F BDT 21.22, about 9% a year, slower than revenue because the gross margin eases [11].
Against benchmarks: our FY2026F EPS is 2.6% above the 12-month run-rate to March 2026 (BDT 17.39), and our FY2026F EBIT margin of 13.5% compares with 9.8% as the FY2021-25 median and 12.3% in the nine months [11] [2 p.2]. Management gives no guidance and holds no earnings calls that we could find in DSE announcements [7].
Model update
- Latest period used: nine months to 31-Mar-2026 (unaudited) and the audited FY2025 statements.
- The FY2026 audited results (year to 30-Jun-2026) were on the board agenda for 29-Oct-2026 but were not posted on DSE when we wrote. The model will be updated when the FY2026 statements are filed.
| BDT mn | FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross sales by category (incl. VAT) | ||||||||
| Detergent powder | — | — | — | 3,242 | 3,662 | 4,153 | 4,579 | 5,048 |
| Soap: toilet (Tibet, Sandalina) and washing | — | — | — | 2,546 | 2,771 | 3,054 | 3,303 | 3,573 |
| Personal care: snow, powder, hair oil, other | — | — | — | 998 | 1,175 | 1,320 | 1,455 | 1,604 |
| Gross sales | — | — | — | 6,786 | 7,607 | 8,528 | 9,338 | 10,225 |
| Less: VAT and SD | — | — | — | -997 | -1,138 | -1,275 | -1,396 | -1,529 |
| Revenue (net sales) | 4,167 | 4,705 | 5,358 | 5,789 | 6,470 | 7,252 | 7,941 | 8,696 |
| Revenue growth | — | 12.9% | 13.9% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Production volume ('000 tonnes) | — | — | — | 35.1 | 36.7 | 38.8 | 40.5 | 42.2 |
| Capacity utilisation (50,000 t) | — | — | — | 70.2% | 73.4% | 77.6% | 81.0% | 84.4% |
| Costs | ||||||||
| Materials incl. stock change, % of revenue | — | — | — | 67.0% | 65.4% | 66.4% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Factory overhead | — | — | — | -378 | -412 | -445 | -485 | -530 |
| Cost of sales | -3,364 | -3,793 | -4,169 | -4,254 | -4,642 | -5,263 | -5,785 | -6,330 |
| Gross profit | 803 | 912 | 1,188 | 1,535 | 1,827 | 1,989 | 2,156 | 2,367 |
| Gross margin | 19.3% | 19.4% | 22.2% | 26.5% | 28.2% | 27.4% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Selling and distribution | -430 | -493 | -585 | -703 | -822 | -910 | -1,001 | -1,096 |
| Administrative | -71 | -72 | -80 | -85 | -128 | -103 | -111 | -120 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 302 | 348 | 523 | 746 | 878 | 977 | 1,045 | 1,151 |
| Other income (interest, dividends, securities) | 15 | 74 | 70 | 21 | 45 | 75 | 96 | 108 |
| Finance costs | -4 | -2 | -42 | -27 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -6 |
| Profit before WPPF | 313 | 420 | 552 | 740 | 918 | 1,046 | 1,134 | 1,253 |
| Contribution to WPPF | -15 | -20 | -26 | -35 | -44 | -50 | -54 | -60 |
| Profit before tax | 298 | 400 | 525 | 705 | 874 | 996 | 1,080 | 1,194 |
| Effective tax rate | 21.4% | 20.8% | 28.2% | 27.7% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Income tax (current and deferred) | -64 | -83 | -148 | -196 | -242 | -269 | -297 | -328 |
| Profit for the year | 234 | 317 | 377 | 510 | 632 | 727 | 783 | 865 |
| Shares (mn, after the FY25 10% bonus) | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 |
| EPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares) | 5.74 | 7.77 | 9.25 | 12.50 | 15.50 | 17.83 | 19.21 | 21.22 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares) | — | — | 3.01 | 4.13 | 5.91 | 7.13 | 7.68 | 8.49 |
| Depreciation (incl. right-of-use) | — | — | — | 24 | 24 | 26 | 32 | 40 |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | 771 | 902 | 1,003 | 1,077 | 1,191 |
From the Income statement tab of the model.
| BDT mn | 9M FY25A | 4Q FY25A | FY25A | 9M FY26A | 4Q FY26F | FY26F | 4Q growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,789 | 1,680 | 6,470 | 5,400 | 1,852 | 7,252 | 0 |
| Gross profit | 1,293 | 535 | 1,827 | 1,415 | 574 | 1,989 | 0 |
| Operating profit | 581 | 297 | 878 | 663 | 313 | 977 | 0 |
| Profit after tax | 424 | 208 | 632 | 501 | 227 | 727 | 0 |
| Gross margin | 27.0% | 31.8% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 31.0% | 27.4% | — |
| EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares) | 10.39 | 5.11 | 15.50 | 12.28 | 5.56 | 17.83 | — |
From the Quarterly tab of the model.
Fair value range BDT 121-215, base 169 (9.5x FY2026F EPS); the price is above the range
The valuation reads off the forecast. DCF (70%): free cash flow to the firm for FY2027F-33F is discounted at the cost of equity (there is no bank debt) to 30-Jun-2026 with mid-year timing, then rolled forward to 29-Oct-2026. Growth fades to 6% and the EBIT margin to a sustainable 10.0%. The terminal value uses NOPAT x (1 - g / return on new capital) with a 23.0% return, so reinvestment is 26.1% of NOPAT. Enterprise value is BDT 5,994mn, 54% from the terminal value. Adding cash and deposits of BDT 1,024mn and listed shares of BDT 463mn, and deducting the loan fund, leases and gratuity, gives BDT 182 a share. DDM (30%): FY2026F-28F cash dividends, paid each December, then EPS x (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) at the same 23.0% ROE, give BDT 139. The DDM is lower because the existing cash and shares, and the cash retained at a 40% payout, enter it only through interest income. Sum of the parts does not apply: one business, no subsidiaries; the share portfolio is valued at market.
Inputs, set without reference to the price. Cost of equity = 10-year T-bond 9.27% [10] + beta 0.65 x ERP 7.5% = 14.2%. ERP 7.5% is the standard for non-bank DSE companies in this series. The raw two-year weekly beta against DSEX is 0.48 (correlation 0.30) [8]; Blume-adjusted it is 0.65, above the F08 floor of 0.6, so we use it. Terminal growth of 6% is the middle of the F08 staples range (5-7%); revenue grew 8.4% a year in FY2019-25, partly from inflation. The 23.0% return on new capital is the FY2018-25 median ROE on average equity, 23.0% (range 17.9-28.4%) [6 p.5] [5 p.55]; operating returns are higher because equity carries BDT 1.2bn of cash and shares, so ROE is the conservative choice and is used in all three legs. The sustainable EBIT margin of 10.0% is near the company's nine-year average (FY2017-25 range 5.9-13.6%, median 7.2%, mean 8.4%) [6 p.6] and well below the FY2024-25 peak, because that peak came from prices running ahead of costs and the nine-month gross margin is already lower. The justified forward P/E is (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) = 9.1x; our base is 9.5x FY2026F and 8.8x FY2027F EPS, with a 4.5% FY2027F cash yield.
The price and our range. At BDT 500.4 the market values Kohinoor at BDT 20.4bn, 28.1x our FY2026F EPS, above our bull case of BDT 215. On our forecast the price corresponds to a 8.5% cost of equity, 12.9% growth for ever (above the cost of equity in practice), or an EBIT margin of 30.5% from FY2027F [11]. June trailing P/Es were 47.7x (FY2021), 32.6x and 40.6x (FY2022-23, partly in the DSE floor-price years), 43.6x (FY2024) and 29.3x (FY2025), median 40.6x [8] [11]. The market has long paid a growth multiple for this stock; we do not anchor on it (WRITER rule: multiples must not echo the price), and our inputs would need the margin or growth above to support the price.
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate (BD 10-yr T-bond cut-off yield) | 9.3% |
| Equity risk premium | 7.5% |
| Raw beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX) | 0.48 |
| Blume-adjusted beta | 0.65 |
| Beta used (floor 0.6) | 0.65 |
| Cost of equity | 14.2% |
| WACC | 14.2% |
| Terminal growth (nominal BDT) | 6.0% |
| Return on new capital / sustainable ROE (terminal) | 23.0% |
| Discount from 30-Jun-2026 to 29-Oct-2026 (years; negative = roll forward) | -0.33 |
| Sustainable EBIT margin (fade target, FY33F) | 10.0% |
From the WACC tab of the model.
| BDT mn unless stated | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | FY31F | FY32F | FY33F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,941 | 8,696 | 9,462 | 10,229 | 10,986 | 11,722 | 12,426 |
| Revenue growth | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| EBIT margin | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% |
| EBIT | 1,045 | 1,151 | 1,191 | 1,221 | 1,241 | 1,248 | 1,243 |
| Less: WPPF and tax on EBIT | -323 | -356 | -369 | -378 | -384 | -386 | -385 |
| NOPAT | 721 | 795 | 822 | 843 | 857 | 862 | 858 |
| Add: depreciation | 32 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 57 |
| Less: capex | -160 | -180 | -65 | -71 | -76 | -81 | -86 |
| Less: increase in working capital (FY29F+: % of revenue at FY28F) | -129 | -133 | -158 | -158 | -156 | -152 | -145 |
| Free cash flow to firm (FCFF) | 465 | 521 | 643 | 662 | 675 | 683 | 684 |
| Discount period (years from 30-Jun-2026, mid-year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Discount factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| PV of FCFF | 435 | 427 | 462 | 416 | 372 | 330 | 289 |
| Sum of PV of FCFF, FY27F-FY33F | 2,731 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal reinvestment rate = g / RONIC | 26.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value at FY33F | 8,243 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PV of terminal value | 3,263 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value at 30-Jun-2026 | 5,994 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value, % of EV | 54.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Add: cash and fixed deposits (FY26F) | 1,024 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Add: listed shares at market (FY26F) | 463 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Less: legacy loan fund, leases, gratuity; contingent claim in the bear (FY26F) | -363 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value at 30-Jun-2026 | 7,119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DCF value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 182.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY26F DPS, paid ~Dec-2026 (BDT) | 7.13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY27F DPS, paid ~Dec-2027 (BDT) | 7.68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY28F DPS, paid ~Dec-2028 (BDT) | 8.49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY28F EPS at the sustainable EBIT margin (BDT) | 16.46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: value at Dec-2028 of later dividends = EPS x (1+g) x (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) | 158.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 138.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weight: DCF | 70.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weight: DDM | 30.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value, active scenario (BDT/share) | 169.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value - bear (25%) | 121.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value - base (50%) | 169.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value - bull (25%) | 214.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Probability-weighted fair value | 168.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 500.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash, FDR and listed shares less loan fund, leases and gratuity per share, FY26F | 27.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Justified forward P/E = (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) | 9.1x | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied FY26F P/E at base fair value | 9.5x | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied FY27F P/E at base fair value | 8.8x | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied FY27F dividend yield at base fair value | 4.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reverse DCF: cost of equity that equates DCF value to price (base g) | 8.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reverse DCF: terminal g that equates DCF value to price | 12.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reverse DCF: EBIT margin FY27F+ that equates DCF value to price (base Ke, g) | 30.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bear: DCF / DDM (BDT/share) | 121.9 | 119.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bull: DCF / DDM (BDT/share) | 238.9 | 158.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
From the Valuation tab of the model.
| Terminal g | CoE 10.2% | CoE 12.2% | CoE 14.2% | CoE 15.2% | CoE 16.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 278 | 212 | 175 | 162 | 151 |
| 6.0% | 314 | 227 | 182 | 167 | 155 |
| 7.0% | 374 | 247 | 192 | 174 | 160 |
| 8.0% | 487 | 277 | 204 | 182 | 166 |
| 9.0% | 794 | 325 | 220 | 192 | 173 |
| Bear (25%) | Base (50%) | Bull (25%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detergent volume FY27F | 2.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% |
| Soap volume FY27F | 0.0% | 3.0% | 6.0% |
| Price/mix FY27F | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| Imported materials USD FY27F | 10.0% | 3.0% | -4.0% |
| BDT per USD FY27F | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Extra brand spend FY27F | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| FY2027F EPS (BDT) | 10.79 | 19.21 | 26.76 |
| FY2027F gross margin | 21.8% | 27.2% | 31.5% |
| DCF (BDT/share) | 122 | 182 | 239 |
| DDM (BDT/share) | 120 | 139 | 158 |
| Fair value (BDT/share) | 121 | 169 | 215 |
| Implied FY2026F P/E | 6.9x | 9.5x | 11.8x |
| Implied P/B (Jun-2026F book) | 1.7x | 2.4x | 3.0x |
Data
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Base FY26F | Price FY26F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 47.70 | 32.60 | 40.60 | 43.60 | 29.30 | 9.50 | 28.10 |
| KOHINOOR | UNILEVERCL | RECKITTBEN | MARICO | ACI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap (BDT bn) | 20.4 | 37.6 | 15.2 | 83.2 | 15.6 |
| P/E TTM | 28.8x | 71.1x | 18.4x | 13.3x | — |
| P/B | 7.7x | 21.0x | 40.7x | 18.1x | 1.7x |
| Dividend yield | 1.2% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 1.4% |
Risks: imports +15% cut fair value 11%; a 3pp price cut takes 7%
Each risk below changes one driver, with everything else at base; margins fade back to normal by FY2033F as in the scenarios. Input costs are the largest: imports 15% dearer in dollars cut FY2027F EPS to BDT 13.48 and fair value by 11%. A 3-point lower price/mix costs 7% and a 10% taka fall 7%. Five points less detergent volume costs only 2%, because the line still grows. The contingent BDT 268mn claim on debenture interest would cost BDT 6.6 a share if it ever had to be paid [1 p.30]; we deduct it in the bear case only. Risks without a modelled number: related-party trading with sponsor companies [1 p.35]; losses on the BDT 634mn share portfolio, which is already BDT 170mn under cost [1 p.24]; and thin trading at about BDT 4.2mn a day, which can move the price sharply either way.
| Risk / opportunity | Line it moves | FY2027F EPS (BDT) | Fair value (BDT/share) | vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imported inputs +15% in USD in FY2027F (palm oil, LAB) | Materials ratio; gross margin | 13.5 | 151.4 | -0.1 |
| Taka falls 10% in FY2027F | Imported material cost | 15.3 | 157.3 | -0.1 |
| Price/mix 3pp lower in FY2027F (price war) | Revenue; gross margin | 15.8 | 157.0 | -0.1 |
| Brand spend +1pp of revenue (defending Tibet) | Selling and distribution | 17.9 | 165.5 | -0.0 |
| Detergent volume -5pp in FY2027F | Detergent revenue | 18.6 | 165.8 | -0.0 |
| Deposit yield 2.5pp lower | Other income | 18.8 | 168.1 | -0.0 |
| Imports +15% with a 45% imported share | Materials ratio | 14.4 | 154.0 | -0.1 |
| Imports +15% with a 65% imported share | Materials ratio | 12.5 | 148.8 | -0.1 |
| Cash payout cut to 30% | Dividends; cash | 19.2 | 168.0 | -0.0 |
| Opportunity: new detergent line, volume +9% a year | Detergent revenue; capacity | 19.7 | 177.4 | 0.0 |
| Contingent debenture interest paid | Equity bridge | — | 162.7 | -0.0 |
| Base | — | 19.2 | 169.3 | 0.0 |
Data
| Imported inputs +15% in USD in FY2027F | Price/mix 3pp lower in FY2027F | Taka falls 10% in FY2027F | Opportunity: new detergent line, volume +9% a year | Contingent claim paid | Brand spend +1pp of revenue | Detergent volume -5pp in FY2027F | Cash payout cut to 30% | Deposit yield 2.5pp lower | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in fair value | -17.90 | -12.30 | -12.00 | 8.10 | -6.60 | -3.80 | -3.50 | -1.30 | -1.20 |
Catalysts and what to watch
- FY2026 audited results and dividend (board met 29-Oct-2026): fourth-quarter margin, stock level and the cash/bonus split
- Palm oil, LAB and caustic soda prices and the taka-dollar rate
- Any announcement of the new production line its stock dividends were retained for
- Price moves by Unilever, Square, ACI and Keya in detergent and soap
- Resolution of the legacy loan fund and the BDT 268mn court-stayed claim; transfers of unclaimed dividends
The model
Assumptions
| Driver | FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull) | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sensitivity: extra volume growth a year, all categories, FY27F-28F (pp) | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sensitivity: extra change in imported-material cost in BDT, FY27F (level shift) | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Imported share of materials (palm oil/soap noodles, LAB, perfume, chemicals) | 55.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| VAT and SD, % of gross sales | 15.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Installed capacity (tonnes a year) | 50,000 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Detergent powder (Wheel-type 'Tibet' and 'Chaka'-segment brands) volume growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Soap (Tibet toilet and washing soap, Sandalina) volume growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Personal care (Tibet snow, powder, hair oil, toothpaste, other) volume growth | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Price/mix change, all categories - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Price/mix change, all categories - base | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Price/mix change, all categories - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Price/mix change, all categories - active | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Imported material price in USD, change - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 10.0% | 4.0% |
| Imported material price in USD, change - base | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Imported material price in USD, change - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | -4.0% | 0.0% |
| Imported material price in USD, change - active | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| BDT per USD, change - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| BDT per USD, change - base | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| BDT per USD, change - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| BDT per USD, change - active | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Local materials and packaging (caustic soda, cartons, laminate), cost change | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Factory overhead incl. depreciation (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 445 | 485 | 530 |
| Selling and distribution, % of revenue (FY26F: 9M actual + 4Q at 4Q FY25 ratio) | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - base | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Extra brand spend vs base, % of revenue - active | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Administrative expenses (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 103 | 111 | 120 |
| Yield on opening cash and fixed deposits | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Dividend yield on the share portfolio (at market) | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Finance cost (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| WPPF, % of profit before WPPF | — | — | — | — | — | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Effective tax rate | — | — | — | — | — | 27.0% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Depreciation incl. right-of-use (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 32 | 40 |
| Capex (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 55 | 160 | 180 |
| Inventory days (on cost of sales) | — | — | — | — | — | 130 | 125 | 120 |
| Trade receivables, % of revenue | — | — | — | — | — | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Advances, deposits and prepayments, % of revenue | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Trade and other payables incl. accruals, % of cost of sales | — | — | — | — | — | 16.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - base | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Cash dividend payout (DPS / EPS), paid the following year - active | — | — | — | — | — | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
Income statement
| BDT mn | FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross sales by category (incl. VAT) | ||||||||
| Detergent powder | — | — | — | 3,242 | 3,662 | 4,153 | 4,579 | 5,048 |
| Soap: toilet (Tibet, Sandalina) and washing | — | — | — | 2,546 | 2,771 | 3,054 | 3,303 | 3,573 |
| Personal care: snow, powder, hair oil, other | — | — | — | 998 | 1,175 | 1,320 | 1,455 | 1,604 |
| Gross sales | — | — | — | 6,786 | 7,607 | 8,528 | 9,338 | 10,225 |
| Less: VAT and SD | — | — | — | -997 | -1,138 | -1,275 | -1,396 | -1,529 |
| Revenue (net sales) | 4,167 | 4,705 | 5,358 | 5,789 | 6,470 | 7,252 | 7,941 | 8,696 |
| Revenue growth | — | 12.9% | 13.9% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Production volume ('000 tonnes) | — | — | — | 35.1 | 36.7 | 38.8 | 40.5 | 42.2 |
| Capacity utilisation (50,000 t) | — | — | — | 70.2% | 73.4% | 77.6% | 81.0% | 84.4% |
| Costs | ||||||||
| Materials incl. stock change, % of revenue | — | — | — | 67.0% | 65.4% | 66.4% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Factory overhead | — | — | — | -378 | -412 | -445 | -485 | -530 |
| Cost of sales | -3,364 | -3,793 | -4,169 | -4,254 | -4,642 | -5,263 | -5,785 | -6,330 |
| Gross profit | 803 | 912 | 1,188 | 1,535 | 1,827 | 1,989 | 2,156 | 2,367 |
| Gross margin | 19.3% | 19.4% | 22.2% | 26.5% | 28.2% | 27.4% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Selling and distribution | -430 | -493 | -585 | -703 | -822 | -910 | -1,001 | -1,096 |
| Administrative | -71 | -72 | -80 | -85 | -128 | -103 | -111 | -120 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 302 | 348 | 523 | 746 | 878 | 977 | 1,045 | 1,151 |
| Other income (interest, dividends, securities) | 15 | 74 | 70 | 21 | 45 | 75 | 96 | 108 |
| Finance costs | -4 | -2 | -42 | -27 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -6 |
| Profit before WPPF | 313 | 420 | 552 | 740 | 918 | 1,046 | 1,134 | 1,253 |
| Contribution to WPPF | -15 | -20 | -26 | -35 | -44 | -50 | -54 | -60 |
| Profit before tax | 298 | 400 | 525 | 705 | 874 | 996 | 1,080 | 1,194 |
| Effective tax rate | 21.4% | 20.8% | 28.2% | 27.7% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Income tax (current and deferred) | -64 | -83 | -148 | -196 | -242 | -269 | -297 | -328 |
| Profit for the year | 234 | 317 | 377 | 510 | 632 | 727 | 783 | 865 |
| Shares (mn, after the FY25 10% bonus) | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 | 40.78 |
| EPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares) | 5.74 | 7.77 | 9.25 | 12.50 | 15.50 | 17.83 | 19.21 | 21.22 |
| Cash DPS (BDT, on 40.78mn shares) | — | — | 3.01 | 4.13 | 5.91 | 7.13 | 7.68 | 8.49 |
| Depreciation (incl. right-of-use) | — | — | — | 24 | 24 | 26 | 32 | 40 |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | 771 | 902 | 1,003 | 1,077 | 1,191 |
Balance sheet
| BDT mn | FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE and right-of-use assets | — | — | — | 285 | 313 | 342 | 470 | 610 |
| Inventories | — | — | — | 1,226 | 1,484 | 1,875 | 1,981 | 2,081 |
| Trade receivables | — | — | — | 25 | 60 | 65 | 71 | 78 |
| Advances, deposits and prepayments | — | — | — | 553 | 344 | 435 | 476 | 522 |
| Listed shares (FVOCI, at market) | — | — | — | 576 | 463 | 463 | 463 | 463 |
| Cash and fixed deposits | — | — | — | 297 | 767 | 1,024 | 1,260 | 1,539 |
| Total assets | — | — | — | 2,962 | 3,432 | 4,205 | 4,723 | 5,293 |
| Equity | — | — | — | 2,034 | 2,416 | 2,902 | 3,394 | 3,946 |
| Loan fund: government/BCIC debentures and interest (legacy) | — | — | — | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 |
| Provision for gratuity | — | — | — | 23 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Deferred tax liability | — | — | — | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Lease liabilities | — | — | — | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Short-term loans | — | — | — | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trade and other payables (incl. accruals and tax provision) | — | — | — | 477 | 556 | 842 | 868 | 886 |
| Employee benefits (WPPF, welfare funds) | — | — | — | 53 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 |
| Unclaimed dividend | — | — | — | 22 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Total equity and liabilities | — | — | — | 2,962 | 3,432 | 4,205 | 4,723 | 5,293 |
| Check: assets - equity and liabilities | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net cash and shares (cash + FDR + listed shares - loan fund - leases - loans) | — | — | — | 533 | 899 | 1,155 | 1,391 | 1,670 |
| Book value per share (BDT, 40.78mn shares) | — | — | — | 49.88 | 59.24 | 71.17 | 83.24 | 96.78 |
Cash flow
| BDT mn | FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit for the year | — | — | — | — | — | 727 | 783 | 865 |
| Depreciation | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 32 | 40 |
| Change in working capital | — | — | — | — | — | -201 | -129 | -133 |
| Net cash from operating activities | — | — | — | 966 | 648 | 553 | 687 | 772 |
| Capex | — | — | — | -11 | -50 | -55 | -160 | -180 |
| Cash dividends paid | — | — | — | -115 | -160 | -241 | -291 | -313 |
| Borrowings and other financing, net | — | — | — | -745 | -10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net change in cash and FDR | — | — | — | — | — | 257 | 236 | 279 |
| Check: change in cash vs balance sheet | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow (OCF + capex) | — | — | — | 955 | 598 | 498 | 527 | 592 |
| OCF / profit | — | — | — | 1.90 | 1.02 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 0.89 |
Quarterly
| BDT mn | 9M FY25A | 4Q FY25A | FY25A | 9M FY26A | 4Q FY26F | FY26F | 4Q growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,789 | 1,680 | 6,470 | 5,400 | 1,852 | 7,252 | 0 |
| Gross profit | 1,293 | 535 | 1,827 | 1,415 | 574 | 1,989 | 0 |
| Operating profit | 581 | 297 | 878 | 663 | 313 | 977 | 0 |
| Profit after tax | 424 | 208 | 632 | 501 | 227 | 727 | 0 |
| Gross margin | 27.0% | 31.8% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 31.0% | 27.4% | — |
| EPS (BDT, 40.78mn shares) | 10.39 | 5.11 | 15.50 | 12.28 | 5.56 | 17.83 | — |
Ratios
| Ratio | FY21A | FY22A | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F | FY28F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share price (BDT, June close, bonus-adjusted; forecast = 29-Oct-2026) | 273.7 | 253.5 | 375.4 | 544.7 | 454.6 | 500.4 | 500.4 | 500.4 |
| Gross margin | 19.3% | 19.4% | 22.2% | 26.5% | 28.2% | 27.4% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| EBIT margin | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% |
| Selling and distribution, % of revenue | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Other income, % of profit before tax | 5.0% | 18.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| Equity (year-end, filings) | 1,234 | 1,493 | 1,822 | 2,034 | 2,416 | 2,902 | 3,394 | 3,946 |
| ROE (on average equity) | 21.0% | 23.2% | 22.8% | 26.4% | 28.4% | 27.4% | 24.9% | 23.6% |
| EPS growth | — | 35.4% | 19.1% | 35.1% | 24.0% | 15.1% | 7.7% | 10.5% |
| Cash payout (DPS / EPS) | — | — | 32.5% | 33.1% | 38.1% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| P/E | 47.7x | 32.6x | 40.6x | 43.6x | 29.3x | 28.1x | 26.0x | 23.6x |
| Cash dividend yield | — | — | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| P/B | 9.0x | 6.9x | 8.4x | 10.9x | 7.7x | 7.0x | 6.0x | 5.2x |
| EV (market cap - net cash and shares) | — | — | — | 21,678 | 17,639 | 19,250 | 19,014 | 18,735 |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | 28.1x | 19.6x | 19.2x | 17.7x | 15.7x |
| Median trailing P/E FY21-FY25 | 40.6x | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5-yr median gross margin (FY21-25) | 22.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5-yr median EBIT margin (FY21-25) | 9.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9-yr median EBIT margin (FY17-25) | 7.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8-yr median ROE on average equity (FY18-25) | 23.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5-yr median ROE (FY21-25) | 23.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Valuation
| BDT mn unless stated | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | FY30F | FY31F | FY32F | FY33F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,941 | 8,696 | 9,462 | 10,229 | 10,986 | 11,722 | 12,426 |
| Revenue growth | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| EBIT margin | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% |
| EBIT | 1,045 | 1,151 | 1,191 | 1,221 | 1,241 | 1,248 | 1,243 |
| Less: WPPF and tax on EBIT | -323 | -356 | -369 | -378 | -384 | -386 | -385 |
| NOPAT | 721 | 795 | 822 | 843 | 857 | 862 | 858 |
| Add: depreciation | 32 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 57 |
| Less: capex | -160 | -180 | -65 | -71 | -76 | -81 | -86 |
| Less: increase in working capital (FY29F+: % of revenue at FY28F) | -129 | -133 | -158 | -158 | -156 | -152 | -145 |
| Free cash flow to firm (FCFF) | 465 | 521 | 643 | 662 | 675 | 683 | 684 |
| Discount period (years from 30-Jun-2026, mid-year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Discount factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| PV of FCFF | 435 | 427 | 462 | 416 | 372 | 330 | 289 |
| Sum of PV of FCFF, FY27F-FY33F | 2,731 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal reinvestment rate = g / RONIC | 26.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value at FY33F | 8,243 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PV of terminal value | 3,263 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value at 30-Jun-2026 | 5,994 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value, % of EV | 54.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Add: cash and fixed deposits (FY26F) | 1,024 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Add: listed shares at market (FY26F) | 463 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Less: legacy loan fund, leases, gratuity; contingent claim in the bear (FY26F) | -363 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value at 30-Jun-2026 | 7,119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DCF value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 182.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY26F DPS, paid ~Dec-2026 (BDT) | 7.13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY27F DPS, paid ~Dec-2027 (BDT) | 7.68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY28F DPS, paid ~Dec-2028 (BDT) | 8.49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: FY28F EPS at the sustainable EBIT margin (BDT) | 16.46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM: value at Dec-2028 of later dividends = EPS x (1+g) x (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) | 158.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DDM value per share at 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 138.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weight: DCF | 70.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weight: DDM | 30.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value, active scenario (BDT/share) | 169.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value - bear (25%) | 121.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value - base (50%) | 169.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value - bull (25%) | 214.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Probability-weighted fair value | 168.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share price 29-Oct-2026 (BDT) | 500.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash, FDR and listed shares less loan fund, leases and gratuity per share, FY26F | 27.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Justified forward P/E = (1 - g/ROE) / (CoE - g) | 9.1x | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied FY26F P/E at base fair value | 9.5x | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied FY27F P/E at base fair value | 8.8x | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Implied FY27F dividend yield at base fair value | 4.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reverse DCF: cost of equity that equates DCF value to price (base g) | 8.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reverse DCF: terminal g that equates DCF value to price | 12.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reverse DCF: EBIT margin FY27F+ that equates DCF value to price (base Ke, g) | 30.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bear: DCF / DDM (BDT/share) | 121.9 | 119.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bull: DCF / DDM (BDT/share) | 238.9 | 158.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
WACC
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate (BD 10-yr T-bond cut-off yield) | 9.3% |
| Equity risk premium | 7.5% |
| Raw beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX) | 0.48 |
| Blume-adjusted beta | 0.65 |
| Beta used (floor 0.6) | 0.65 |
| Cost of equity | 14.2% |
| WACC | 14.2% |
| Terminal growth (nominal BDT) | 6.0% |
| Return on new capital / sustainable ROE (terminal) | 23.0% |
| Discount from 30-Jun-2026 to 29-Oct-2026 (years; negative = roll forward) | -0.33 |
| Sustainable EBIT margin (fade target, FY33F) | 10.0% |
Sensitivity
| Grid 1: terminal g (rows) x cost of equity (columns), DCF value BDT/share | CoE 10.15% | CoE 12.16% | CoE 14.16% | CoE 15.16% | CoE 16.16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| g 5.0% | 277.6 | 211.9 | 174.9 | 161.9 | 151.3 |
| g 6.0% | 314.4 | 227.0 | 182.4 | 167.4 | 155.3 |
| g 7.0% | 373.8 | 247.4 | 191.6 | 173.9 | 160.1 |
| g 8.0% | 487.1 | 277.2 | 203.5 | 182.1 | 165.8 |
| g 9.0% | 794.5 | 325.2 | 219.7 | 192.5 | 172.9 |
| Grid 2: volume growth vs base, all categories (rows) x imported-material cost in BDT from FY27F (columns): fair value, BDT/share | Imports -20% | Imports -10% | Imports +0% | Imports +10% | Imports +20% |
| Fair value at volume -5.0% a year | 177.5 | 164.2 | 150.8 | 137.4 | 124.1 |
| Fair value at volume -2.5% a year | 188.1 | 173.9 | 159.8 | 145.6 | 131.5 |
| Fair value at volume +0.0% a year | 199.2 | 184.3 | 169.3 | 154.4 | 139.5 |
| Fair value at volume +2.5% a year | 211.0 | 195.3 | 179.5 | 163.7 | 147.9 |
| Fair value at volume +5.0% a year | 223.6 | 206.9 | 190.2 | 173.6 | 156.9 |
| Grid 3: same inputs: FY27F EPS, BDT | Imports -20% | Imports -10% | Imports +0% | Imports +10% | Imports +20% |
| EPS FY27F at volume -5.0% a year | 26.97 | 22.42 | 17.88 | 13.33 | 8.79 |
| EPS FY27F at volume -2.5% a year | 27.86 | 23.20 | 18.54 | 13.88 | 9.23 |
| EPS FY27F at volume +0.0% a year | 28.76 | 23.98 | 19.21 | 14.44 | 9.66 |
| EPS FY27F at volume +2.5% a year | 29.65 | 24.76 | 19.88 | 14.99 | 10.10 |
| EPS FY27F at volume +5.0% a year | 30.54 | 25.54 | 20.54 | 15.54 | 10.54 |
Peers
| Metric | KOHINOOR | UNILEVERCL | RECKITTBEN | MARICO | ACI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap (BDT bn) | 20.4 | 37.6 | 15.2 | 83.2 | 15.6 |
| P/E TTM | 29 | 71 | 18 | 13 | — |
| P/B | 8 | 21 | 41 | 18 | 2 |
| Dividend yield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FAQ
- What is Kohinoor Chemical's fair value?
- We estimate BDT 121-215 a share, base 169, from a DCF (70%) and a dividend discount model (30%) at a 14.2% cost of equity [11]. The price on 29-Oct-2026 was BDT 500.4 [8].
- Which brands does Kohinoor Chemical sell?
- Tibet detergent powder, Tibet and Sandalina toilet soaps, washing soap, Tibet snow, powder, hair oil, toothpaste and shaving cream; detergent was 48% of FY2025 gross sales [1 p.31].
- Who owns Kohinoor Chemical?
- The sponsors (Karim family; chairman Mohammad Obaidul Karim, managing director Md. Rezaul Karim) hold 50.57% and the public 49.43% [1 p.25] [2 p.1].
- What dividend does KOHINOOR pay?
- For FY2025, 65% cash (BDT 6.50 a share on 37.07mn shares) plus a 10% stock dividend; for FY2024, 50% cash plus 10% stock [7].
- What is the Kohinoor loan fund?
- BDT 326mn of government and BCIC debentures and pre-1983 interest from the BCIC era, carried as a long-term liability since 1991-92; a further BDT 268mn of interest is contingent and stayed by a court [1 p.27] [1 p.30].
- Which results does this report use?
- The audited FY2025 statements (year to 30-Jun-2025) and the unaudited nine months to 31-Mar-2026. The FY2026 results (board meeting 29-Oct-2026) will be added when filed.
Sources
- Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited, auditor's report and financial statements for the year to 30-Jun-2025 (FY2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Kohinoor Chemical Co. (Bangladesh) unaudited financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 (Q3 FY2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited Annual Report 2024 (year to 30-Jun-2024; FY2023 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited Annual Report 2022 (year to 30-Jun-2022; FY2021 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited Annual Report 2020 (year to 30-Jun-2020; FY2019 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Ltd. financial statements for the year to 30-Jun-2018 (FY2017 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- DSE announcements for KOHINOOR, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (quarterly EPS releases; FY2024 and FY2025 dividends; EGM and PLC name change; CRISL ratings; auditor emphasis of matter; FY2026 board meeting notice 25-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:KOHINOOR weekly and monthly bars (bonus-adjusted), DSEX weekly, to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro screener: DSE consumer peers (UNILEVERCL, RECKITTBEN, MARICO, ACI), close 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank, Treasury auction cut-off yields (10-year bond 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026; 364-day bill 8.79% on 26-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
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