Jamuna Oil valuation report: fair value BDT 130–199 (Oct 2026)

Fair value range BDT 130–199 (base 164): own cash and the MJL stake are 68% of the sum of the parts, not fuel margin

Jamuna Oil PLC (DSE: JAMUNAOIL), renamed from Jamuna Oil Company Limited on 30-Jun-2026 [5], is one of the three state fuel-marketing companies owned by Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), alongside Padma Oil and Meghna Petroleum. It distributes BPC's diesel, octane, petrol, kerosene, furnace oil and jet fuel through depots, filling stations and agents across Bangladesh, and earns a commission per litre fixed by government gazette. It never owns the fuel: BPC sells it the product at cost and takes back the sale value less the margin. In FY2025 (year to June) Jamuna sold 1.72 million tonnes, 70% of it diesel, and kept BDT 1.72bn of net earnings on BDT 208.7bn of product value, under 1% [1 p.119].

That fuel margin barely covers the company's costs. After administration, distribution, depreciation and financial charges, core operating profit was BDT 498mn in FY2025. Profit before WPPF was BDT 8.5bn because Jamuna earned BDT 8.0bn of non-operating income: interest on bank deposits, FDRs and treasury bills, plus a BDT 320mn dividend from its 19.45% stake in the listed lubricant maker MJL Bangladesh PLC [1 p.93] [1 p.120]. Non-operating income was 94% of pre-WPPF profit. The cash comes from two places: BDT 30.3bn of shareholders' equity and a much larger float of money owed to BPC for product, BDT 73.9bn at June 2025 [4 p.12].

The record FY2025 (EPS BDT 58.70) is already behind it. Five of its deposit banks, including First Security Islami, Global Islami, Union and Social Islami, were merged into Sammilito Islami Bank under Bangladesh Bank's resolution programme. Jamuna had BDT 15.4bn in FDRs and a short-notice account at six stressed banks at June 2025; the auditor qualified the FY2025 opinion over them [1 p.86]. From the first quarter of FY2026 Jamuna stopped accruing interest on the Sammilito deposits and wrote back what it had booked [5]. Nine-month EPS fell to BDT 26.57 from 36.65 [4 p.2]. Our model puts FY2026E EPS at BDT 36.97 and FY2027F at 35.57, as deposit yields ease from their 2025 peak toward 7.2% by FY2031F [14].

We value the shares at a fair value range of BDT 130–199, base BDT 163.6 and probability-weighted 164.0, from a sum of the parts (50%), a dividend discount model (30%) and justified price-to-book (20%), at a 14.2% cost of equity [14]. The price of BDT 178.2 (29-Oct-2026) [11] sits inside the range, 9% above the base. In the base sum of the parts, own cash after a 30% haircut on the stressed banks comes to BDT 109 a share and the MJL stake BDT 43 after a 15% discount; the fuel franchise, which includes interest on the BPC float, is BDT 73. The answer therefore rests on deposit rates, the fate of BDT 15.4bn in stressed banks and whether BPC keeps leaving its money with Jamuna. The latest period used is the nine months to 31-Mar-2026; FY2026 audited statements have not been filed and the model will be updated when they are.

Jamuna sells about 25% of Bangladesh's fuel; BPC owns 60.08% and is also its supplier and biggest creditor

Bangladesh's downstream oil chain is state-run. BPC imports crude and refined product, Eastern Refinery processes the crude, and the three marketing subsidiaries sell the product. National fuel sales were 68.35 lakh tonnes in FY2025, of which Padma sold 26.27 lakh tonnes (38.4%) [9], Meghna 23.85 lakh [10] and Jamuna 17.21 lakh [1 p.43]: about 25% for Jamuna, the smallest of the three. Jamuna also handles product for private importers, which earned BDT 240.7mn of handling commission in FY2025 [1 p.120].

BPC holds 66,346,780 shares (60.08%); institutions hold 30.83% and individuals 9.09% [1 p.46]. The chairman is appointed through the Energy and Mineral Resources Division and BPC: the board chair changed three times in eight months, to Md. Yunusur Rahman (Sep-2025), Petrobangla chairman Md. Arfanul Hoque (Mar-2026) and Azizur Rashid (May-2026) [5]. BPC is also on both sides of the business: it sold Jamuna BDT 452bn of product in FY2025 and was owed BDT 73.9bn at June 2025 and 56.3bn at March 2026 [4 p.12] [4 p.20], and it charges Jamuna a finance fee of Tk0.07–0.10 per litre [1 p.120].

Jamuna has two equity stakes. It owns 61,621,900 shares (19.45%) of MJL Bangladesh PLC, the listed Mobil-brand lubricant blender it co-founded with Mobil in 1998; the stake cost BDT 87.7mn and has paid BDT 3.16bn of cash dividends since 2003 [1 p.46] [4 p.7]. It also owns 25% of the unlisted Omera Fuels Limited (LPG and terminals), carried at BDT 228.8mn [4 p.6]. Its credit rating is AA+ (ECRL, Apr-2026) [5]. Shares traded about 10,000 a day (BDT 1.8mn) in Sep–Oct 2026 [11]; market value at BDT 178.2 is BDT 19.7bn.

Capital actions in the last 24 months were limited to cash dividends (150% for FY2024, 180% for FY2025), an EGM on 31-Jan-2026 to adopt the PLC name, and board changes; there were no rights issues, bonus shares, bonds or placements, and the share count has been 110,424,600 since the last bonus issue for FY2014 [4 p.9] [5]. Authorised capital is BDT 3.0bn against BDT 1.10bn paid up. Because BPC owns 60.08%, dividends go mostly to the state: of the BDT 1.99bn FY2025 dividend, BDT 1.19bn went to BPC. No sector regulator caps Jamuna's dividend; the board, with BPC's nominees, sets it, and the payout has been a fixed percentage of face value rising slowly (120% to 180% in five years) rather than a share of profit [1 p.47].

History explains the price. Over FY2019–FY2025 profit after tax rose from BDT 2.34bn to 6.48bn and NAV per share from BDT 167.61 to 274.03 [2 p.65] [1 p.92] [3 p.94], while the share price moved only between BDT 138 and 195 at month-ends [11]. Almost all of that profit growth came from interest income, which rose from BDT 2.72bn to 8.01bn as BPC's float grew and deposit rates rose; core operating profit was smaller in FY2025 (BDT 498mn) than in FY2019 (BDT 524mn). The market has priced Jamuna as a deposit book of uncertain quality, not as a growing business, and the 2025 bank mergers showed why.

The gazette leaves Jamuna about Tk0.79 a litre on diesel, 0.8% of the sale value

Fuel prices in Bangladesh are set by the government. Since March 2024 an automatic formula resets pump prices monthly from import parity (Platts/Dated Brent at the payment-date exchange rate) plus duties, BPC costs, transport and the dealer and marketing-company commissions. The marketing companies' slice is fixed by gazette: in March 2024 it rose to Tk0.80 a litre for diesel and kerosene and Tk0.90 for octane and petrol, the first rise since 2016, as reported by The Business Standard [8]. The automatic formula moves BPC's price, not Jamuna's margin: the margin moves only when a new gazette is issued.

Jamuna's own notes show the gazette at work. In FY2025 it sold 1,206,550 tonnes of diesel for BDT 142.6bn and paid BPC BDT 141.5bn, a gross margin of BDT 1,140mn or Tk945 a tonne, about Tk0.79 a litre at 1,190 litres a tonne (our density assumption) [1 p.119]. Operational losses (evaporation and handling, with gains on furnace oil) took BDT 130mn off the total gross margin of BDT 1,846mn, leaving net earnings of BDT 1,716mn, or Tk997 a tonne across all products [1 p.119]. Lubricants (MJL products and own blends) added BDT 196.7mn of margin on 2,939 tonnes; LPG and bitumen BDT 15.2mn [1 p.119].

Net earnings per tonne were Tk668–748 a tonne in FY2019–FY2023, rose to Tk798 in FY2024 and Tk997 in FY2025 as the 2024 gazette took full effect [2 p.65] [1 p.93]. In the nine months to March 2026 they were Tk842 a tonne, because the year-end settlement of operational gains and losses with BPC comes in the fourth quarter; in FY2025 the fourth quarter earned Tk1,401 a tonne against Tk861 in the first nine months [4 p.17] [1 p.93]. We hold the margin flat in taka from FY2026E (Tk975 a tonne) in the base case: a gazette change is a scenario, never the base. Each Tk0.10 a litre is worth about BDT 1.36 of FY2027F EPS [14].

Volume was 17.47 lakh tonnes in FY2019 and 17.21 in FY2025; 9M FY2026 fell 5.3% on furnace oil

Jamuna's volume has gone nowhere in seven years: 17.47 lakh tonnes in FY2019, 14.88 in the Covid year, a peak of 19.48 in FY2023 and 17.21 in FY2025 [2 p.65] [1 p.43]. Diesel is 70% of tonnes and grows with trucks, buses, irrigation pumps and backup generators; FY2025 diesel rose only 1.1%. Furnace oil (13% of tonnes) goes mainly to oil-fired power plants and swings with their dispatch; private power producers can import their own fuel, which the directors list as a structural threat, alongside rural electrification cutting kerosene and LPG autogas replacing petrol and octane [1 p.42]. Octane (+5.3%) and petrol (+5.8%) grew with the car and motorcycle fleet [1 p.43].

In the nine months to March 2026 volume fell to 1,219,597 tonnes from 1,287,721 (−5.3%), with furnace-oil sales value down 48% and diesel 2% [4 p.17]. We take the FY2026E volume at 16.30 lakh tonnes (nine months grossed up by FY2025's fourth-quarter share) and grow it 2% a year from FY2027F, in line with diesel's long-run trend and GDP. Bear and bull move volume growth by 3 points for two years and fade back. Volume matters less than it looks: a 3% volume change moves FY2027F EPS by only about BDT 0.33 [14].

Core operating profit was Tk289 a tonne in FY2025 and falls toward zero by FY2031F as costs outrun a fixed margin

Jamuna's costs are mostly people and depots. Administrative, selling and distribution expenses were BDT 995mn in FY2025, of which payroll and benefits BDT 638mn, storage, selling and administration BDT 213mn, and rent and taxes BDT 46mn; depreciation added BDT 143mn [1 p.120] [1 p.93]. These costs grew 3.6% a year from FY2019 to FY2025 [2 p.65] [1 p.93]; we use 5% from FY2027F, below CPI near 8%, because headcount is falling (456 staff in FY2023 against 508 in FY2019) [2 p.65]. Financial expenses, BDT 324mn in FY2025 and BDT 538mn in FY2026E, are BPC's per-litre finance charge plus interest on the workers' profit fund that Jamuna holds [4 p.19]; we hold them at BDT 540mn.

Other operating income, mainly handling commission on private importers' product, was BDT 245mn in FY2025 [1 p.120]; we hold it at BDT 235mn. Put together, core operating profit after financial expenses was BDT 498mn in FY2025 (Tk289 a tonne), BDT 172mn in FY2026E and falls to BDT 27mn by FY2031F in our base case: a margin fixed in taka cannot keep up with 5% cost growth on 2% volume unless BPC issues another gazette. Core EPS is only BDT 1.01 in FY2027F [14].

Interest on BDT 74bn of cash and FDRs is the profit; BDT 15.4bn of it sits in six stressed banks

At June 2025 Jamuna held BDT 43.1bn in cash and bank deposits (BDT 39.1bn of it in FDRs and short-notice accounts), BDT 21.4bn of short-term FDRs and treasury bills, and BDT 9.1bn of longer FDRs and treasury bonds: BDT 73.5bn in all, excluding the MJL shares [1 p.92] [4 p.7] [4 p.9]. Interest on this book was BDT 7.63bn in FY2025: BDT 5.28bn on bank deposits, 2.03bn on FDRs and 0.33bn on treasuries [1 p.120]. Measured on the average book, that is a 11.4% yield, above the 9.27% ten-year government bond [13], because 2024–25 term-deposit rates were high and weak banks paid most.

Those weak banks are the problem. The auditor's qualified opinion lists FDRs of BDT 3,261mn at First Security Islami, 4,320mn at Global Islami, 2,895mn at Union, 186mn at Social Islami, 70mn at National and 740mn at Bangladesh Commerce Bank, plus BDT 3,938mn in a short-notice account at First Security: banks that Bangladesh Bank is merging because of severe liquidity stress [1 p.86]. Jamuna had asked for encashment without success, and BDT 580mn of accrued interest on them was at risk [1 p.86]. The total, BDT 15.4bn, is BDT 140 a share, 78% of the share price. In FY2026 Jamuna stopped accruing interest on deposits with the merged Sammilito Islami Bank and booked BDT 1,266mn of unrecognised interest as a liability instead [4 p.12] [5].

Management has moved the rest into government paper: by March 2026 the long-term book was BDT 7.0bn of treasury bonds and 1.2bn of FDRs, and interest on treasuries was BDT 953mn in nine months [4 p.7] [4 p.20]. Accrued interest receivable fell from BDT 1,017mn to 441mn [4 p.8]. Cash, FDRs and treasuries fell to BDT 62.7bn at March 2026 because BPC was paid down by BDT 17.6bn [4 p.1] [4 p.12]. In the third quarter, interest of BDT 1,318mn on a performing book of about BDT 47bn was an 11.2% annualised yield [4 p.13].

Our base interest-yield path on the performing book (cash less the stressed BDT 15.4bn, which earns nothing) is 9.5% in FY2027F and 9.0% in FY2028F while locked FDRs and bonds run off, then fades to 7.2% by FY2031F: Bangladesh Bank's weighted-average deposit rate of 6.21% plus 100bp, the F25 guardrail [13]. Interest income is BDT 4.97bn in FY2027F, against BDT 7.63bn in FY2025 [14]. In the valuation we deduct 30% of the stressed balances in the base case, BDT 42 a share: the bottom of the F25 30–50% band, because the principal is a claim on a bank under Bangladesh Bank resolution rather than written off, the lost interest is already out of our EPS, and Jamuna has moved new money into government paper. The bear case uses the band top (50%); the bull 10% assumes recovery. Tax is a second cost: in nine months Jamuna paid tax on BDT 4.84bn of financial income against BDT 3.95bn booked [4 p.13], an extra charge we model at BDT 270mn a year until FY2028F.

The 19.45% MJL Bangladesh stake is valued at BDT 43 a share after a 15% discount, 26% of base fair value

MJL Bangladesh PLC blends and sells Mobil-brand lubricants and runs oil tankers. In the nine months to March 2026 its consolidated net revenue fell 7.5% to BDT 30.2bn and profit attributable to shareholders fell to BDT 1.87bn (EPS BDT 5.91 against 8.09), because of lower revenue, a higher minimum tax and the end of a tax exemption on its tankers [7 p.3] [7 p.38]. On 28-Oct-2026 it announced FY2026 consolidated EPS of BDT 11.04 (FY2025: 11.36), NAV of BDT 59.90 and a 50% cash dividend [6]; the audited annual is not yet in our corpus.

Jamuna's 61,621,900 MJL shares are 19.45% of MJL's 316.75mn [4 p.7] [7 p.38]. At the DSE close of BDT 90.8 on 29-Oct-2026 [12] their market value is BDT 5.60bn, BDT 50.7 a Jamuna share. MJL trades at 8.2 times its FY2026 EPS and yields 5.5%; we take the market price rather than build our own lubricant model, because the stake is listed and liquid enough to price, and apply a 15% discount, equal to the tax on the gain that Jamuna already provides as deferred tax [4 p.11]. The stake is material (BDT 43 a share after the discount, 26% of base fair value), so it is shown separately; its dividend (BDT 308mn a year at 50%) is excluded from the fuel-franchise earnings so it is not counted twice. A 30% fall in MJL's share price would cut our base fair value to BDT 157.

Why a sum of the parts here: the skill rule calls for one when a part is material and has its own credible value. Two parts qualify: the listed MJL stake (own market price) and the cash book, whose value depends on bank credit risk rather than on fuel margins.

Fuel pricing reform moves BPC's price monthly; a margin gazette or private marketing would move Jamuna's profit

Three policy items reach Jamuna's income statement. First, the margin gazette: the automatic pricing formula leaves the marketing commission fixed until the government revises it, as it did in March 2024 after eight years [8]. A review could go either way, so our bear and bull cases move the margin by Tk0.10 a litre, worth about BDT 1.36 of FY2027F EPS. Second, the directors say the government is considering opening fuel marketing to the private sector, which they call a big challenge [1 p.42]; it would hit volume and the BPC float. Third, deposit rates: Bangladesh Bank's tight policy kept term-deposit rates high in 2024–2026, and as inflation falls they will ease, which is the largest single driver of Jamuna's EPS.

The fuel market itself is changing slowly. National fuel-oil sales grew 1.1% in FY2025 to 68.35 lakh tonnes, of which 46.08 lakh were imported refined product and 15.11 lakh crude, with 7.07 lakh of local condensate products [9]. Pipelines (the India–Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline to the north, the single-point mooring at Chattogram and the jet-fuel line to Shah Amanat airport) cut BPC's transport cost; they do not change the marketing margin, but they can shift depot throughput and handling income between the three companies. Oil-fired power plants are being run less as gas, coal and imported power take over, which is why furnace oil fell sharply in 9M FY2026 [4 p.17]. LPG autogas and electric three-wheelers are slowly eroding petrol and octane demand, the directors note [1 p.42].

Shariah screens are relevant to the earnings mix: nearly all profit is interest, so the share is unlikely to pass an Islamic screen. For conventional investors the share is a claim on a state-controlled deposit book whose size depends on BPC's working-capital policy, whose yield depends on Bangladesh Bank's policy rate, and whose credit quality depends on how the bank-resolution programme treats corporate depositors.

BPC's own cash needs are the other policy risk. The float exists because BPC leaves sale proceeds with its marketing companies; BPC was owed BDT 73.9bn in June 2025 and 56.3bn in March 2026 [4 p.12]. If BPC collects BDT 10bn more and keeps it, interest income falls and our base fair value drops to BDT 134. The government can also ask for higher dividends from state companies; a 60% payout instead of 42% would raise our base to BDT 187, because cash paid out escapes the trapped-cash discount.

Earnings quality: 94% of FY2025 profit was interest, and the FY2025 audit was qualified on BDT 15.4bn of deposits

The FY2025 auditors (Hoda Vasi Chowdhury & Co and M M Rahman & Co) qualified their opinion on two matters: no expected-credit-loss allowance on the BDT 15.4bn in merging banks, and no provision against BDT 190mn of long-outstanding receivables from the Power Development Board, BCIC and Chattogram City Corporation; they state that profit was overstated to that extent [1 p.86]. In FY2026 management responded by stopping interest accrual on Sammilito deposits, but still holds no provision against the principal [4 p.12].

Cash flow swings with BPC's payment timing. Operating cash flow was BDT 12.0bn in FY2023 (NOCFPS BDT 109.01), 2.5bn in FY2024 and 7.1bn in FY2025, against profit of BDT 3.4bn, 4.4bn and 6.5bn [2 p.65] [1 p.121]; in the nine months to March 2026 it was minus BDT 14.8bn as BPC was paid down [4 p.4]. The three-year average of BDT 7.2bn is above average profit, so profit is not overstated by accruals beyond the bank issue, but no single year's cash flow means much (F25 §C.5). Dividends of BDT 1.99bn for FY2025 were 31% of profit and are covered many times by interest alone [1 p.47].

We forecast EPS of BDT 36.97 in FY2026E and 35.57 in FY2027F, down from 58.70, as deposit yields ease

FY2026E is built from the nine-month actuals plus a fourth quarter from drivers, because the year is not yet filed and no FY2026 EPS has been announced. Fourth-quarter volume is the nine months times FY2025's fourth-quarter share (0.337); fourth-quarter net earnings per tonne carry the same year-end settlement uplift seen in FY2025 (1.63 times the nine-month rate); non-operating income and financial expenses run at the third-quarter rate (no MJL dividend falls in the fourth quarter); tax uses the nine-month effective rate of 26.2% [4 p.2] [4 p.13] [1 p.93]. That gives fourth-quarter EPS of BDT 10.40 against 6.94 in the third quarter and 22.05 in the fourth quarter of FY2025; FY2026E EPS is BDT 36.97 [14]. No residual line is needed because there is no announced figure to match.

From FY2027F each line has its own driver: net earnings = volume (+2% a year) × net earnings per tonne (flat at the gazette); costs +5% a year; financial expenses flat at BDT 540mn; interest = yield × opening performing cash; MJL dividend BDT 308mn; WPPF 5%; tax 20% plus BDT 270mn in FY2027F–FY2028F on unrecognised interest. EPS is BDT 35.57 in FY2027F and 32.25 in FY2031F. The cash book is rolled forward from the same numbers: equity grows by profit less dividends at a 42% payout (the five-year median), the BPC float is held at the three-point average of BDT 40.3bn, and capex is BDT 600mn a year. ROE falls from 23.3% in FY2025 to 8.5% by FY2031F, against an FY2020–FY2025 range of 9.1%–23.4% (median 13.3%), because yields fade to 7.2% [14].

How our normalised numbers compare with Jamuna's own record: ROE on average equity was 11.0%, 10.7%, 9.1%, 15.6%, 18.4%, 23.4% in FY2020–FY2025 (model Ratios, from the filings), rising with rates [2 p.65] [1 p.93]. Our base FY2031F ROE of 8.5% is near the low end because we assume yields fade to the 7.2% guardrail and the stressed deposits earn nothing; FY2023–FY2025 were a rate peak, not a normal year. Net earnings per tonne of Tk975 in our forecast compares with Tk669–798 in FY2019–FY2024 and Tk997 in FY2025; the step reflects the 2024 gazette, which is in force. Payout of 42% compares with 31–71% over FY2021–FY2025. Non-operating income stays above 95% of pre-WPPF profit, against 84–96% in FY2019–FY2025.

Seasonality matters for reading quarters. The irrigation season (January–April) lifts diesel, the monsoon quarter is the weakest, and the fourth quarter (April–June) carries the year-end settlement of operational gains and losses with BPC: in FY2025 the fourth quarter earned BDT 608mn of net earnings against BDT 1,108mn in the first nine months [1 p.93] [4 p.2]. The MJL dividend arrives in the second or third quarter (BDT 320mn in the nine months of both FY2025 and FY2026) [4 p.20]. Quarterly EPS of BDT 6–13 should therefore not be multiplied by four.

Why above the recent run rate: the second and third quarters of FY2026 carried no year-end margin settlement and absorbed the write-back of first-quarter Sammilito interest; the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest [5].

Fair value BDT 130–199: SOTP BDT 225, DDM 97 and P/B 111, blended to 164

Cost of equity is 14.2%: the 9.268% ten-year bond yield of 25-Oct-2026 [13], plus a beta of 0.70 times a 7.0% equity risk premium. The raw two-year weekly beta against DSEX is 0.47 (R² 0.28), Blume-adjusted 0.65; we apply the F25 sector floor of 0.7, which overrides the general 0.6 floor [11]. Terminal growth is 4% in every leg: volume about 2% plus some nominal drift, below nominal GDP because the margin is fixed in taka between gazettes.

Sum of the parts (50% weight): (1) the fuel franchise: FY2027F core earnings after WPPF and tax (BDT 111mn) plus after-tax interest on the BPC float (BDT 2,205mn), times a justified P/E of 5.40x = (1 − g/ROE)(1 + g)/(Ke − g) at the sustainable ROE of 8.5%, times a distribution factor of 64.4% = payout 42% + retention × after-tax yield (5.5%) / Ke, the same payout as the DDM, because retained franchise earnings join the cash pile and are worth only yield/Ke; BDT 73 a share. Float interest is capitalised at the 7.2% terminal yield, not today's rate. (2) Own cash, equity less fixed assets and the MJL stake (BDT 211 a share at June 2026E), less the 30% haircut, less a trapped-cash discount of 35.6% (retained cash earns 5.5% after tax against a 14.2% cost of equity); BDT 109 a share. (3) The MJL stake at market less 15%; BDT 43. Total BDT 225.

Dividend discount (30%): dividends at the 42% payout for FY2027F–FY2031F plus a terminal value of FY2031F EPS × (1 + g) × (1 − g/ROE)/(Ke − g), less the stressed-bank haircut: BDT 97. Justified P/B (20%): (ROE − g)/(Ke − g) = 0.44x on June 2026E book less the haircut: BDT 111. The legs differ for stated reasons. The DDM charges the 14.2% cost of equity on everything Jamuna retains (58% of profit) while reinvested cash earns ROE of about 8.5%, so it gives the lowest value; the P/B leg makes the same point on book. The sum of the parts values the MJL stake at its market price (BDT 43 against about BDT 17 in the DDM, where MJL counts only through its dividend) and discounts own cash by 35.6% rather than through the cost of equity on all retained profit. We weight the sum of the parts most because two of its parts have direct market or book anchors.

Implied multiples of the base value: 4.6x FY2027F EPS, 0.56x June 2026E book, a 9.1% FY2027F dividend yield. Own cash plus the MJL stake are 93% of the base value: in the language of the F25 spec, Jamuna is a cash box with a fuel licence, and its value rests on cash quality, not on the margin. Core P/E is not meaningful: core EPS of BDT 1.01 implies 12x. Reverse check: the BDT 178.2 price matches our grid A with yields about 100bp above base at a 30–50% haircut (BDT 169–190), or base yields with a 15% haircut (BDT 178).

Each scenario's sustainable ROE (8.0% bear, 9.0% bull) sits at or just below the low end of Jamuna's own FY2020–FY2025 range of 9.1%–23.4%: the terminal yield of 7.2% is below anything Jamuna earned in FY2023–FY2025, and the stressed balances earn nothing. A fully stacked stress (bear drivers, yields 300bp lower and the stressed balances lost in full) gives BDT 19; we show it outside the range because it stacks shocks that are unlikely together.

Peer multiples are not used as a valuation leg: all three companies earn mostly interest, so a peer P/E would only restate the price. Peers' figures come from their own FY2025 annual reports on the same standalone basis.

Six risks move fair value; a 200bp fall in deposit yields is the most likely and costs BDT 50 a share

Every risk below moves a named line in the model; the fair value and FY2027F EPS after each shock (one at a time, base otherwise) come from recalculating the workbook [14]. Deposit yields are the most likely and largest recurring risk: the 2024–2026 rates were a peak. The stressed-bank loss is the largest single one-off. BPC reclaiming its float, a margin cut under fuel-price reform and a fall in MJL's share price follow. Volume matters least. The bear case moves the same drivers as this table: yields −200bp in FY2027–FY2028 fading to the same 7.2% terminal, the margin −Tk0.10 a litre, volume −1% for two years and a 50% haircut.

What would change our view. On the upside: a clear repayment schedule for Sammilito depositors (each 10 points less haircut adds about BDT 10 a share), a new margin gazette, or a policy decision to pay out more of the cash to shareholders, most of whom are the state itself. On the downside: Bangladesh Bank cutting rates faster than we assume, BPC tightening collection so the float shrinks, a provision on the stressed principal through the income statement, or private fuel marketing taking volume. We will revisit the range when the FY2026 annual report gives the June 2026 bank-by-bank deposit schedule.

Five signposts to the FY2026 results: the annual filing, Sammilito recovery, deposit rates, BPC payables and the margin gazette

• FY2026 audited results (the board met in November last year; FY2025 results came on 12-Nov-2025 [5]): our FY2026E EPS is BDT 36.97; watch whether the auditor's qualification is extended to a provision.
• Bangladesh Bank's resolution of Sammilito Islami Bank: any payment schedule for depositors decides how much of BDT 15.4bn comes back.
• Term-deposit and treasury yields: our base performing yield is 9.5% in FY2027F; each 100bp is worth about BDT 26 of fair value.
• BPC payables in the Q1 FY2027 balance sheet: the float fell to BDT 33.6bn in March 2026 from 47.6bn in June 2025.
• Any EMRD gazette on marketing margins or on private fuel marketing; MJL's AGM on 22-Dec-2026 and record date 17-Nov-2026 (dividend to Jamuna BDT 308mn).

Financials and data: seven years of history and five forecast years

Note: this initiation uses the FY2025 audited accounts and the un-audited nine months to 31-Mar-2026. The FY2026 annual statements (year to 30-Jun-2026) have not yet been filed; the model will be updated when they are.

FAQ

How does Jamuna Oil make money?

It distributes BPC's fuel for a gazetted margin (Tk0.80 a litre on diesel) and earns interest on a large cash book, most of it money owed to BPC. In FY2025, 94% of pre-WPPF profit was non-operating income.

Why did EPS fall in FY2026?

Deposits at banks merged into Sammilito Islami Bank stopped earning interest from the first quarter, and deposit yields eased; nine-month EPS fell to BDT 26.57 from 36.65.

What is Jamuna's exposure to stressed banks?

BDT 15.4bn of FDRs and a short-notice account at six merging banks at June 2025, per the auditor's qualified opinion. We deduct 30% in the base valuation (50% bear, 10% bull).

What is the MJL Bangladesh stake worth?

19.45% of MJLBD, 61.62mn shares, with a market value of BDT 5.60bn (BDT 50.7 a Jamuna share) at the 29-Oct-2026 price; we value it at market less 15%.

What is the fair value range?

BDT 130–199, base BDT 163.6, probability-weighted 164.0, at a 14.2% cost of equity.

Sources

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2. Jamuna Oil Company Limited Annual Report 2022-23 (statements to 30-Jun-2023; Annexure IV five-year data FY2019-FY2023; three-OMC comparison) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Jamuna Oil Company Limited Annual Report 2020-21 (statements to 30-Jun-2021) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
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7. MJL Bangladesh PLC un-audited Q3 financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
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