IFAD Autos financial analysis: BDT 27.8bn receivables, 3x debt to equity, FY26 EPS BDT 0.45 (Oct 2026)

Investment considerations: units up 22% and EPS back to BDT 0.45, but a BDT 27.8bn receivable book funded by debt sets the risk

IFAD Autos PLC sells Ashok Leyland trucks, buses and light commercial vehicles in Bangladesh. It imports some models complete (CBU), imports others as kits (CKD) and assembles them at its Dhamrai plant, builds bus bodies and cabins locally, and also sells Farmtrac tractors from Escorts Limited of India [1 p.147]. Most buyers pay over time: the company sells on instalments and funds the credit with bank lines. That financing model is the single fact an investor has to understand first, because it sets the balance sheet, the cost base and the cash flow.

The audited FY2026 numbers are not yet in our corpus. The board approved them on 27-Oct-2026 and DSE published the headline figures on 28-Oct-2026: EPS BDT 0.45 against BDT (0.27), NAV per share BDT 35.92 and NOCFPS BDT 5.65, with a 3% cash dividend proposed [6]. The detailed analysis below therefore runs to FY2025 and the nine months to March 2026, with FY2026 per-share figures labelled as DSE-announced. The implied fourth quarter of FY2026 earned BDT 0.13 a share (0.45 less 0.32 for nine months), against a loss of BDT 0.64 in the fourth quarter of FY2025 (-0.27 less 0.37) [6] [2 p.3].

Business: an Ashok Leyland distributor that assembles 71% of its units and finances most of its customers

IFAD Autos was incorporated in 1988, became a public company in 2011, raised capital through an IPO in March 2014 and listed on DSE on 18-Jan-2015 [1 p.147]. It is the vehicle arm of the IFAD Group: the annual report's related-party note lists IFAD Auto Services, IFAD Motors and IFAD Information & Technology under common management, and the company holds 47.76% of IFAD Multi Products, the group's FMCG business [1 p.156] [1 p.174].

The business has three revenue lines. Imported complete vehicles (CBU) earned BDT 2,308m net of VAT in FY2025 on 1,046 units; locally assembled vehicles (CKD) BDT 6,132m on 2,591 units; and the body-building unit BDT 482m [1 p.167] [1 p.168]. The mix has moved towards assembly: CKD was 54% of units in FY2022 and 71% in FY2025 [13]. By type, the FY2025 directors' discussion counts 1,540 trucks, 959 buses and 1,138 light commercial vehicles [1 p.124].

How a sale works. Buyers are transport operators, logistics firms and owner-drivers. The auditor's revenue procedures describe the paperwork: an approved buyer form, customer personal documents, guarantor documents and a customer investigation form [1 p.139]. The company keeps the receivable, charges the customer interest, and borrows from banks under lease facilities to fund it; the interest it earns from customers is netted against its own interest cost in 'Financial Expenses' [1 p.172]. Selling expenses include a 'recovery expenses' line of BDT 18.8m [1 p.171], and the management team includes a project director who also runs the seized-vehicle department [1 p.34]: repossession is part of the model.

Industry position. The sector specification we use cites an IDLC study of the commercial-vehicle market for 2019-20 that put Tata (Nitol) at 40%, Ashok Leyland (IFAD) at 38% and Eicher (Runner) at 10%; there is no newer share data, so we do not quote a current share. Market volume is visible through BRTA registrations: The Daily Star reported 2,671 new trucks registered in 2024 against 2,292 in 2023, and 2,949 covered vans against 1,874, with IFAD Group's vice-chairman linking the rise to fleet replacement rather than economic growth [9].

Seven years: sales peaked at BDT 11.0bn in FY2019; Covid and a BDT 1.05bn FX hit in FY2022-24 caused three loss years

Seven years of history show two shocks. Sales peaked at BDT 11,017m in FY2019 with profit after tax of BDT 1,137m (EPS BDT 4.28) [4 p.131]. FY2020 sales fell 29.4% to BDT 7,773m as the pandemic stopped transport and construction, and profit fell to BDT 230m [4 p.131] [13]. Sales recovered to BDT 9,489m by FY2022 with profit of BDT 414m [1 p.129].

The second shock was the taka. Vehicles and kits are bought from India in US dollars on letters of credit. IFAD booked foreign-exchange losses of BDT 247m in FY2022, BDT 608m in FY2023 and BDT 197m in FY2024 [4 p.149] [1 p.144]; in FY2023 alone BDT 683m of exchange losses were paid in cash [4 p.151]. At the same time, dollar shortages and import curbs limited what dealers could bring in, and The Business Standard reported that FY2024 sales fell 17.21% as commercial-vehicle demand shrank [8]. The company lost money in FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 (EPS -0.58, -0.61, -0.27) [1 p.129].

FY2025 and FY2026 are the recovery. Units rose 21.9% in FY2025 and the FX loss fell to BDT 85m [1 p.144] [13]. In 9M FY2026 the FX line was a loss of only BDT 1.7m, other income rose to BDT 157m and profit before tax reached BDT 260m against BDT 216m [2 p.3]. Profit after tax for nine months was nonetheless lower, BDT 85.9m against BDT 99.1m, because tax rose to BDT 174m [2 p.3]. The DSE figure for the full year, EPS BDT 0.45, implies profit after tax of about BDT 121m on 268.25m shares [6] [13].

Line items: imported vehicles and kits are 93% of cost, and financial expenses exceeded operating profit in FY2025

Revenue. Revenue is units times price, and both moved. CKD revenue per unit rose from BDT 2.02m (FY2022) to BDT 2.37m (FY2025), and CBU revenue per unit from BDT 1.72m to BDT 2.21m, as the taka weakened and import prices were passed on [13]. The company itself attributes FY2025's 19.25% growth to 'an increase in price and a rise in demand for commercial vehicles' [1 p.174]. Per-unit figures mix trucks, buses and LCVs, so part of the change is mix, which the filings do not split by value.

Cost of sales. In FY2025 cost of sales was BDT 7,801m, of which imported vehicles were BDT 1,513m and raw materials (kits and parts) BDT 5,765m; wages were BDT 70m, servicing BDT 74m and depreciation BDT 57m [1 p.168]. About 93% of cost is therefore imported vehicles and kits priced in dollars. The gross margin is the gap between the taka price IFAD can charge and the taka cost of what it imports, which is why it fell from 18.2% in FY2021 to 12.6% in FY2025 while the taka depreciated [13]. The 9M FY2026 margin was 13.0%, below 15.3% a year earlier [13]: the volume recovery came at a lower margin.

Operating expenses. Administrative expenses were BDT 348m and selling and distribution BDT 290m in FY2025, almost flat on FY2024 [1 p.144]. Salaries are BDT 205m of the selling line; dealer commission is small at BDT 3.4m, and the expected-credit-loss charge was a release of BDT 0.1m [1 p.171]. Opex has been roughly fixed at BDT 610-640m a year since FY2022, so operating margin moves with gross margin and volume: 11.3% in FY2022, 5.4% in FY2025 [13].

Financial expenses. This is the line that decides profit. FY2025 financial expenses were BDT 504m: interest on loans and credits BDT 490m and bank charges BDT 15m, after netting the interest received from credit customers [1 p.172]. Gross interest earned from customers is not disclosed separately, so the spread the company earns on its instalment book cannot be measured from the filings. Lease facilities carry 9.00-15.75%, short-term loans 13.55-16% and term loans 13.5-16.5% [1 p.162] [1 p.164] [1 p.167]. Financial expenses rose from 2.8% of sales in FY2022 to 5.7% in FY2025 [13]. History sensitivity: on FY2025 borrowings of BDT 29.7bn, each 1pp of funding cost not passed to customers equals about BDT 297m, more than twice FY2025 profit before tax of BDT 108m [13].

Other income, JV and associate. Other income was BDT 119m in FY2025, mainly BDT 132m of interest on fixed deposits, less a BDT 29m loss on listed shares [1 p.171]; in 9M FY2026 it was BDT 157m [2 p.3]. Gulf Oil Bangladesh contributed BDT 61m (its own profit was BDT 124m on revenue of BDT 1,243m) and IFAD Multi Products BDT 40m (profit BDT 84m on BDT 5,508m) [1 p.155] [1 p.156]. These equity-accounted profits are non-cash for IFAD unless dividends are paid; the cash flow shows dividend income of only BDT 0.9m in FY2025 [1 p.146].

Tax. Current tax is the higher of 22.5% of taxable profit, turnover tax and tax deducted at import. In FY2025 taxable income was a loss of BDT 115m, yet current tax was BDT 159m: BDT 60m of tax deducted on imported vehicles, BDT 66m of turnover tax on assembled vehicles, and BDT 32m on other income [1 p.172]. Tax therefore behaves like a cost of sales in weak years, and the effective rate falls back only when profit before tax grows well above the turnover-tax floor.

Ratios: ROE below the cost of debt in every year since FY2020, and coverage down to 0.96x

Growth. Sales changed -29.4%, +11.5%, +9.5%, -4.8%, -17.2% and +19.2% in FY2020-FY2025 [13]: a cyclical, import-dependent business with no trend growth over the period. FY2025 sales were 19% below FY2019.

Margins and returns. Gross margin ranged from 12.6% to 20.6% over seven years; FY2025 was the low. ROE on average equity was 5.5% in FY2021, 4.0% in FY2022 and negative in FY2023-FY2025 [13]. Even in the best year of the period after FY2019, ROE was below the 13.5-16.5% the company pays on term loans [1 p.162]. The reason is the balance sheet: total assets are 4.3x equity and turn over only 0.22x a year [13], because two-thirds of the assets are customer receivables.

Coverage. Operating profit covered financial expenses 6.3x in FY2019, 4.0x in FY2022 and 0.96x in FY2025 [13]; the company's own times-interest-earned ratio was 0.96 [1 p.130]. In FY2025 profit before tax was positive only because of other income and the JV and associate share [1 p.144].

Cash conversion and payout. Operating cash flow was BDT 1,219m in FY2022, -733m in FY2023, -482m in FY2024 and +682m in FY2025 [4 p.151] [1 p.146]. The swing comes from customer collections (BDT 7.2bn in FY2024, 9.3bn in FY2025) and FX payments. Capex is small, BDT 2.4m in FY2025 [1 p.146]. Cash dividends were paid in loss years: 10% for FY2023 when EPS was -0.58, 1% cash plus 1% stock for FY2024, and 2% for FY2025 to general shareholders only, excluding the 147.2m shares of sponsors and directors [1 p.85] [6].

Balance sheet: BDT 23.8bn of receivables over six months old against a 0.05% allowance and BDT 29.7bn of debt

The receivable book. Accounts receivable were BDT 27.7bn gross at 30-Jun-2025 plus BDT 110m of other receivables, against FY2025 sales of BDT 8.9bn [1 p.157]. Of the gross total, BDT 3,992m was due within six months and BDT 23,831m over six months [1 p.157]. The company classifies all of it as 'considered good in respect of which the company is fully secured', holds a general expected-credit-loss allowance of 0.05% (BDT 13.9m), and states that receivables are collectible 'based on historical experience' [1 p.158]. The auditor listed receivables as a key audit matter and reported the 0.05% provision, with confirmations and subsequent-receipt checks as its response, and gave an unmodified opinion [1 p.138] [1 p.141].

What the over-six-months figure means is not explained in the notes: it may include instalments not yet due on multi-year contracts as well as arrears, and the filings give no split by days past due, no repossession inventory and no write-off history. What can be measured is that the book did not shrink while sales recovered: receivables were BDT 26.3bn in June 2022 and BDT 28.7bn in March 2026 [4 p.148] [2 p.2]. Receivable days on annual sales were 1,013 (FY2022), 1,366 (FY2024) and 1,138 (FY2025) [13]. Each 1% of the June-2025 receivable book is BDT 278m, more than twice FY2025 profit before tax [13].

Funding. Leasehold obligations, in practice term financing from 30 banks and leasing companies plus the BEZA land lease, were BDT 22.0bn at June 2025, on 1-7 year tenors repaid in 12-84 monthly instalments [1 p.164]. Short-term bank loans were BDT 6.7bn, term loans BDT 0.5bn and a BDT 400m bond [1 p.143] [1 p.163]. A large part of the leasehold obligations moved from current to non-current during FY2025: the current portion fell from BDT 7,816m to BDT 1,789m [1 p.164], which raised the reported current ratio from 2.10 to 3.43 [1 p.130]. By March 2026 short-term loans were down to BDT 4.6bn while lease lines rose to BDT 24.0bn [2 p.2].

Other assets. Inventory fell from BDT 2,196m in June 2025 to BDT 1,198m in March 2026 [2 p.2], and imported CBU stock fell from 536 to 288 vehicles in FY2025 [1 p.157]. Advance income tax was BDT 1,809m and VAT current account BDT 347m [1 p.158]. Property, plant and equipment of BDT 4,032m includes land, buildings and plant revalued in 2016 [1 p.140] [3 p.123]; the revaluation surplus is BDT 844m, 8.8% of equity, so NAV per share ex revaluation was BDT 32.41 against BDT 35.56 reported [13]. Contingent liabilities were BDT 119m of bank guarantees [1 p.177].

Cash flow: collections of BDT 9.3bn turned operating cash flow positive in FY2025 and 9M FY2026

Cash flow follows collections. In FY2025 customers paid BDT 9,252m against sales of BDT 8,922m, so collections exceeded sales for the first time in three years; payments to suppliers and staff were BDT 8,063m, FX payments BDT 175m and tax BDT 332m, leaving operating cash flow of BDT 682m [1 p.146]. The company's explanation is 'more increased cash collections from customers' [1 p.174].

After the BDT 505m of interest paid, which IFAD shows under financing, cash flow after capex and interest was BDT 175m in FY2025 and BDT 189m in 9M FY2026, against outflows of BDT 1,139m (FY2023) and BDT 925m (FY2024) [13]. In 9M FY2026 the company drew BDT 2,008m of new lease finance and repaid BDT 2,095m of short-term loans [2 p.5]: a refinancing from short-term to term debt rather than a reduction.

Peer: excluding credit income, Runner's FY2025 gross margin was 15.3pp higher and its receivable days a fifth of IFAD's

The only listed commercial-vehicle peer with full filings is Runner Automobiles. Both have a June year end, so the FY2025 columns cover the same twelve months. Runner's figures are consolidated, from its 2024-25 annual report [5 p.9] [5 p.10], and they include motorcycles and Bajaj three-wheelers as well as the Eicher trucks sold by its subsidiary Runner Motors (RMPLC), so the product mix differs from IFAD's trucks and buses. Labels are quoted as printed. Runner's note 2.24 says RMPLC finances credit sales with term loans and that 'such interest receipts from customers are offset against related interest payments to banks and FIs', the same netting IFAD applies in its 'Financial Expenses' [5 p.25] [1 p.172]. Runner's note 2.25 says the group 'represents the finance business income as operating revenue', and note 34 puts BDT 453.0m of credit business income into its FY2025 'Revenue' [5 p.25] [5 p.39]. Runner's receivables are its 'Trade receivables' (non-current BDT 2,349m plus current BDT 4,693m) [5 p.9].

On these figures Runner's gross margin was 31.0% as reported and 27.9% excluding credit business income, against IFAD's 12.6%: a gap of 15.3pp on the like-for-like basis. Runner's receivable days were 245 against 1,138, and net debt/equity 1.09x against 2.87x [13]. Financial expenses as a share of revenue are not comparable: each company nets a different, undisclosed amount of customer interest, and Runner's revenue includes credit income. Market multiples, as facts: at 29-Oct-2026 closes, IFAD trades at 48.0x FY2026 EPS and 0.60x June-2026 NAV; Runner at 27.1x and 0.68x (Runner per-share figures consolidated) [12] [6] [7].

Governance: sponsors hold 54.87%, BDT 1.2bn went to a group FMCG affiliate, and no capex approvals in 24 months of DSE news

Ownership. At 30-Jun-2025 sponsors and directors held 147.18m shares (54.87%), institutions 26.70%, foreign investors 0.02% and the general public 18.41% [1 p.160]. The FY2024 report lists seven directors, two of them independent; the chairman, Iftekhar Ahmed Tipu, held 25.52%, and four family members held 6.5-8.2% each [3 p.123]. We have no later monthly DSE shareholding in this note, so the 12-month change in the sponsor stake is not shown. The board decided in October 2021 that directors take no remuneration other than meeting fees [3 p.123].

Audit. The FY2025 opinion by M.Z. Islam & Co. is unmodified, with key audit matters on revenue, inventory, property and receivables [1 p.138] [1 p.141]. For FY2024 the auditor added an emphasis of matter that land, buildings and plant had last been revalued in 2016, while IAS 16 calls for revaluation every three to five years; management said it would 'revisit' the assets [3 p.123] [6].

Related parties. The FY2025 note shows small trading balances with IFAD Auto Services, IFAD Motors, IFAD Information & Technology and Gulf Oil Bangladesh, and the BDT 1,200m investment in IFAD Multi Products [1 p.174]. The BDT 1.2bn put into a group FMCG company in 2021 and 2024 is the largest capital-allocation decision of the period; it earned IFAD a BDT 40m equity share in FY2025 [1 p.156].

DSE news, November 2024 to October 2026. We read all 40 items in the DSE archive for the period [6]. They are results, dividend declarations, record dates, AGM notices, two CRAB surveillance ratings (AA3 long term / ST-2, stable, in December 2024 and December 2025), the FY2024 emphasis of matter, BSEC consent for the 1% stock dividend, and the move to the 'B' category from 30-Dec-2024 after the 1% cash and 1% stock dividend. There was no board approval of capex, expansion, new plant or new brand in the 24 months. The only large physical project in the filings is a 50-year BEZA land lease at the National Special Economic Zone, Mirsarai: IFAD paid a BDT 51.6m security deposit for 30 acres and BEZA has refunded the deposit for 20 acres [1 p.157]; no construction budget or date is disclosed, and FY2025 PPE purchases were BDT 2.4m [1 p.146].

What's next: the FY2026 annual report before the 27-Dec-2026 AGM is the test for the receivable book

Events with dates after this note, and the line each one moves. The LDC graduation date is now 24-Nov-2029, after the UN General Assembly adopted the three-year deferral on 29-Oct-2026 [10] [11]; for IFAD the relevance is that Indian-origin imports and the local-assembly tax treatment sit inside Bangladesh's tariff regime, and the extra time leaves the current regime in place longer. We do not quantify this.

Risks: credit losses and funding cost are each worth more than two years of FY2025 profit per 1%

Each risk is tied to the line it moves, with the FY2025 size as the yardstick: profit before tax was BDT 108m and equity BDT 9,539m [1 p.143] [1 p.144].

Key questions: collections, funding spread and margin decide shareholder returns, not units alone

What drives returns to shareholders here is not unit growth alone. A 22% rise in units in FY2025 still produced a loss because the margin fell and financial expenses rose [13]. Returns depend on three things that the filings let an investor track: the spread between what customers pay and what banks charge (only visible net), the share of the receivable book that is collected, and the gross margin on imported content. Earnings quality is also shaped by non-cash items: in FY2025 the JV and associate share (BDT 101m) was most of profit before tax, while dividends received were BDT 0.9m [1 p.144] [1 p.146].

Multiples, stated as facts. At BDT 21.6 on 29-Oct-2026 the market value is BDT 5.79bn; that is 48.0x FY2026 EPS of BDT 0.45, 0.60x June-2026 NAV of BDT 35.92, and a 1.4% yield on the proposed BDT 0.30 dividend [12] [6]. Over the past year the share traded between BDT 18.4 and 27.5 [12].

FAQ

What does IFAD Autos do?

It imports, assembles and sells Ashok Leyland trucks, buses and light commercial vehicles in Bangladesh, builds bus bodies, and sells Escorts Farmtrac tractors [1 p.147].

Did IFAD Autos make a profit in FY2026?

Yes. DSE reported audited EPS of BDT 0.45 for the year to June 2026, against a loss of BDT 0.27 a share in FY2025 [6].

Why are IFAD Autos' receivables so large?

Most vehicles are sold on instalments. Receivables were BDT 27.8bn at June 2025, BDT 23.8bn of them due over six months [1 p.157].

How much debt does IFAD Autos have?

BDT 29.7bn at June 2025: BDT 22.0bn of leasehold obligations, BDT 6.7bn of short-term loans, BDT 0.5bn of term loans and a BDT 0.4bn bond [1 p.143] [1 p.164].

What dividend did IFAD Autos propose for FY2026?

3% cash (BDT 0.30 a share); record date 22-Nov-2026, AGM 27-Dec-2026 [6].

Who owns IFAD Autos?

Sponsors and directors 54.87%, institutions 26.70%, general public 18.41% at June 2025 [1 p.160].

Which results does this note use?

Annual reports for FY2019-FY2025 (five-year tables and FY2023-FY2025 statements), the un-audited nine months to March 2026, and DSE-announced FY2026 per-share figures; the FY2026 annual report is not yet in our corpus.

Sources

1. IFAD Autos PLC Annual Report 2024-25 (year to 30-Jun-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. IFAD Autos PLC un-audited financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. IFAD Autos PLC Annual Report 2023-24 (year to 30-Jun-2024) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. IFAD Autos PLC Annual Report 2022-23 (year to 30-Jun-2023; five-year data FY2019-FY2023) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. Runner Automobiles PLC Annual Report 2024-25 (consolidated, year to 30-Jun-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive, IFADAUTOS, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (FY2026 results 28-Oct-2026; Q1-Q3 FY2026; dividends; ratings; category change) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. Dhaka Stock Exchange news archive, RUNNERAUTO (FY2026 results posted 27-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. The Business Standard, 'Ifad Autos losses continue as demand for commercial vehicles shrink; lowers dividend to 2%' (27-Oct-2024) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
9. The Daily Star, 'Sales of trucks rebound on pent-up demand' (published 2025; BRTA registrations 2023 and 2024) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
10. The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
11. The Business Standard, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation' (30-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
12. AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:IFADAUTOS and DSE:RUNNERAUTO daily and monthly bars to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
13. AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31