Grameenphone valuation report: fair value BDT 91.7–341 (Oct 2026)

Grameenphone pays an 8.8% trailing declared yield, but flat revenue and a BDT 75bn spectrum bill put fair value at BDT 92–341

Grameenphone (DSE: GP) is Bangladesh's largest mobile operator, with 83.9mn subscribers at the end of 2025 and a 45.3% share of subscriptions on BTRC data [1 p.97] [1 p.98]; BTRC figures reported by The Financial Express put GP at 87.2mn of 191.1mn subscriptions in August 2026 [16]. It is the most profitable listed company on the Dhaka Stock Exchange by a distance: profit after tax was BDT 29.6bn in 2025 on revenue of BDT 158.1bn, an EBITDA margin of 58.6% [6 p.9]. Telenor of Norway owns 55.8% and Grameen Telecom 34.2%, so only 10.0% of the shares trade [6 p.38]. Almost all profit is paid out: the cash dividend for 2025 was BDT 21.5 a share, 98.2% of profit, and the board paid out 100% of first-half 2026 profit as a BDT 10.5 interim [10].

The problem is growth. Revenue was BDT 158.7bn in 2023, 158.4bn in 2024 and 158.1bn in 2025 [6 p.9] [8 p.9], a real decline of roughly 9% a year with inflation near 9%. Revenue for the nine months to September 2026 fell another 1.5% to BDT 117.7bn, and profit fell 4.1% to BDT 21.7bn (EPS 16.08 against 16.77) [10] [13] [14]. Meanwhile depreciation rose from BDT 27.9bn in 2022 to 36.3bn in 2025 as spectrum and sites were added [9 p.9] [6 p.9]. Robi Axiata, the number two, grew revenue 7.0% in the first half of 2026, as reported by The Financial Express [20]. Over ten years GP's revenue grew 4.2% a year (2015–25), almost all from subscribers (4.0% a year); ARPU was BDT 155 in 2015 and 151 in 2025 [4 p.65] [1 p.98].

Our model builds revenue from subscribers times ARPU (average revenue per user). We assume subscribers grow 1–1.5% a year and nominal ARPU 2% in 2027F and 3% a year from 2028F, about a third of inflation, as data (27.4% of mobile revenue in 2025, from 24.7% in 2021) and bundles grow; that gives revenue of BDT 163.1bn in 2027F and 184.3bn in 2030F. The 2026 spectrum bill (the 700MHz band bought in January plus the renewal of 32.4MHz on 10-Nov-2026) costs about BDT 75bn in nominal instalments, BDT 51bn as a lease at present value, which lifts interest and depreciation, so EPS dips to 19.87 in 2027F before recovering to 24.85 in 2030F. Free cash flow after lease payments roughly equals the dividend in every forecast year (cover 1.00–1.04x), so the payout holds but has no cushion.

Fair value is BDT 92–341, base 213, against a price of BDT 237.3 (29-Oct-2026). The base blends a DCF (BDT 212), a dividend-yield value (BDT 201) and a justified EV/EBITDA of 3.51x after leases (4.58x including leases) on 2027F (BDT 227). The probability-weighted value is BDT 215. The price sits inside the range: it already assumes ARPU growth of roughly our base case and a moderate outcome on spectrum renewal and the BDT 125.8bn BTRC audit claim.

Telenor owns 55.8% and 32.4MHz of GP's spectrum must be renewed on 10-Nov-2026

Grameenphone was set up in 1996, listed in November 2009 and is controlled by Telenor Mobile Communications AS (55.8%), with Grameen Telecom holding 34.2% and the public, employees and institutions 10.0% [6 p.38] [6 p.12]. Telenor received BDT 19.0bn of dividends in 2025 and Grameen Telecom 10.3bn [6 p.54]. The filings show no technical or brand fee paid to Telenor in 2025, so the parent is paid through dividends; this is why the payout matters to the controlling shareholder as much as to minority investors. GP has one associate, Accenture Communications Infrastructure Solutions, fully impaired since 2016 and not material [6 p.12]; there are no subsidiaries, so a sum-of-the-parts valuation does not apply.

In March 2024 BTRC replaced the separate 2G, 3G and 4G licences with a 15-year unified Cellular Mobile Services Operator licence that also covers 5G, but spectrum assignments keep their own expiry dates: 2026 for the 2G block, 2028 for 3G and 2033 for the 4G-era bands [6 p.33]. Under IFRS 16 GP books spectrum as a right-of-use asset and the unpaid instalments as a lease liability, so spectrum shows up in depreciation and interest rather than in operating costs.

Three spectrum events drive the next five years. First, the 700MHz band: GP received the BTRC demand note in February 2026 for 10MHz at BDT 21.7bn including VAT, valid from June 2026 to March 2039, payable in ten yearly instalments of BDT 2.17bn [10]. Second, the renewal of 32.4MHz on 10-Nov-2026: BTRC has proposed cutting renewal prices 10–30%, which would bring the cost for GP, Robi and Banglalink (79.2MHz) to about Tk13,100.5 crore (BDT 131.0bn) from Tk16,845.2 crore at existing rates, as reported by The Business Standard; the proposal awaits government approval and the operators want deeper cuts and 20 instalments [17]. Pro rata by MHz, GP's share is about BDT 53.6bn at the proposed price, which we use in the base case (bear: existing rates, BDT 68.9bn). Third, the 3G block expires in 2028; we assume the same BDT/MHz, BDT 16.5bn. These are labelled assumptions: the pro-rata split assumes one price per MHz across the 900, 1800 and 2100MHz bands (BTRC's base prices differ by band); the bull case (BDT 48.2bn) assumes the proposal is cut a further 10% as operators ask; and in nominal terms the 2026 spectrum is BDT 75.3bn (21.7 + 53.6), BDT 51.2bn as a lease at present value.

The payment terms for the renewal are not public. We assume ten equal yearly instalments starting in 2026, as for 700MHz; AMTOB has asked for 20 (as reported by The Business Standard), which would roughly halve the yearly payment and lower its present value. We value them as a lease at the 9.8% rate GP's lease book carried in 2025. If BTRC asks for a large upfront payment, the 2026–27 dividend would need short-term borrowing; that is a timing risk to the payout rather than to value.

GP held 45.3% of subscriptions at end-2025, close to its 42–46% range since 2015, but its revenue fell 2.5% in H1-2026

Bangladesh had 191.09mn mobile subscriptions in August 2026 on BTRC data, as reported by The Financial Express, up from 185.80mn in January 2026 after a SIM re-verification drive had cut the count in late 2025 [16]. In that report GP had 87.20mn (45.6%), Robi 59.04mn (30.9%), Banglalink 37.95mn (19.9%) and the state-owned Teletalk 6.90mn (3.6%); mobile internet subscriptions were 122.3mn. With about 175mn people and many users holding two SIMs, the subscriber pool is close to saturated: growth now comes from re-activations, share gains and turning voice users into data users.

GP's own figures: 83.9mn subscribers at December 2025 (−0.5% in the year, after BTRC limits on SIM sales and re-verification), 48.7mn internet users (58%) of whom 44.6mn on 4G, and a 45.3% share of subscriptions [1 p.97] [1 p.98]. The Daily Star reported 86.3mn subscribers and 52.7mn data users at June 2026 from the Q2 results [15]. GP's share has stayed between 42.4% and 46.5% since 2015 [4 p.65] [3 p.66] [2 p.89]. So GP is gaining subscriptions but not revenue. Revenue fell 2.5% in the first half of 2026 to BDT 77.4bn [7 p.8]; management blamed a high base (two Eid festivals in Q2-2025), a weak economy and an energy shock that hit mobility and disposable income [10].

Robi Axiata, controlled by Malaysia's Axiata, is the competitive threat. As reported by The Financial Express, Robi's revenue rose 7.0% to BDT 52.4bn in the first half of 2026, profit rose 29% to BDT 4.95bn and data was 44.4% of revenue [20]; as reported by The Business Standard, its nine-month profit rose 20% to BDT 7.47bn on revenue of BDT 79.3bn (+7%) [21]. On those reported figures GP's nine-month revenue of BDT 117.7bn is about 1.5 times Robi's, and the gap is closing. Robi's filings are not used here; data share figures are not on the same definition (GP reports data-only 27.4% plus bundles 13.5% of mobile revenue).

Our base case keeps GP's subscriber growth at 1.5% a year in 2027–28F and 1% after, slightly below the 2026 recovery, and assumes no further share loss. The risk table tests a price war in which ARPU stays flat from 2027: fair value falls 11.7% and 2027F EPS 5.1%. The upside test, subscriber growth of 3% a year from share gains, adds 8.0%.

The forecast needs ARPU to grow for the first time since 2023: BDT 150 a month in 2026F rising to 167 by 2030F

Revenue from mobile communication was BDT 155.2bn in 2025, 98% of the total; the rest was BDT 2.3bn of lease revenue (towers and fibre leased to others) and BDT 0.5bn from devices and commissions [6 p.43]. Prepaid customers paid BDT 145.9bn and contract customers BDT 9.3bn; business customers grew to BDT 18.8bn (+7.4%) while consumers fell 1.3% to BDT 136.9bn [6 p.43]. The consumer prepaid base is therefore where the weakness sits.

For 2026 we take the audited first half (BDT 77,396mn) [7 p.8] and add Q3. The Business Standard reported Q3 revenue of Tk4,016 crore (BDT 40,160mn) and nine-month revenue of BDT 117,662mn [13]; we use the 40,267mn implied by the nine-month figure (the Q3 statements are not yet in our database), and forecast Q4 at BDT 39,860mn, 1% below Q3. That gives 157.5bn for the year (-0.3%). Dividing mobile revenue by an average of 86.0mn subscribers gives ARPU of BDT 149.8 a month in 2026F. From 2027 revenue = subscribers x ARPU x 12.

The long record sets the bar. GP's revenue grew 4.2% a year from 2015 to 2025 and 2.5% a year from 2018, almost all from subscribers; company-reported ARPU moved within BDT 143–167 and fell 0.3% a year over the decade [4 p.65] [1 p.98]. The only sustained ARPU rise was 2021–23 (BDT 143 to 161, +6.1% a year), when bundles grew from 8.8% to 12.3% of mobile revenue and voice prices were rationalised [3 p.67] [2 p.90]. Our 3% a year from 2028F is half that pace and about a third of inflation. Why ARPU should rise at all: with 61% of subscribers using data and data traffic at record highs (GP reported its highest-ever traffic during a 2026 World Cup match, as reported by The Daily Star) [15], the mix shifts from voice bundles to data packs, and the 700MHz band from June 2026 improves indoor and rural coverage, which is where GP can win heavy users. Why only 2% in 2027F: consumer incomes are under pressure, the 20% supplementary duty and 15% VAT on mobile services stay in the FY27 budget [18], and Robi is pricing for share. Our model's ARPU (mobile revenue / average subscribers) is BDT 150 in 2026F against the company's reported 151 for 2025, a definition difference we do not adjust.

BTRC charges and income tax take 20.0% of revenue; the FY27 budget's SIM-tax cut is worth about 5.0% of fair value

Bangladesh taxes mobile operators at three levels. First, the licence: GP pays BTRC 5.5% of revenue as revenue share, 1% to the Social Obligation Fund and quarterly spectrum charges; the line was BDT 12.0bn in 2025, 7.6% of revenue [6 p.44]. Second, income tax: a listed mobile operator pays 40% [6 p.13], and GP's effective rate was 39.9% in 2025 and 41.0% in the first half of 2026 [7 p.8]. Third, taxes on the customer: 15% VAT and 20% supplementary duty on talk time and data, and the SIM tax on every new connection and replacement SIM [6 p.36] [18]. These are collected from customers, so they sit outside GP's revenue but reduce what customers can spend on the service.

The FY27 budget (June 2026) proposed replacing the Tk300 SIM tax with 15% VAT on the SIM sale price and cutting the source tax on mobile network services from 12% to 10%, according to The Business Standard and The Financial Express; the operators' association AMTOB welcomed it [18] [19]. On the Q3 call management said the Finance Act 2026 did withdraw the SIM tax [22]; we have not read the Act itself, so the base case still excludes it and treats it as upside. Our upside test (sales and commission costs falling to 10.0% of revenue as SIM acquisition gets cheaper, plus a listed-operator tax rate of 38.5% from 2028) adds 5.0% to fair value. The opposite risk, a 5-point rise in supplementary duty, we model as ARPU falling 1% in 2027 instead of rising 2%: fair value -5.4%.

The middle column is the change in fair value as a fraction (−0.05 = −5%). BTRC's revenue share and spectrum charges are fixed percentages, so they rise with revenue and give GP no operating leverage; we keep them at 7.65% of revenue, the first-half 2026 level. The tower rules matter less for GP than for its rivals: under BTRC's tower-sharing licensing, operators lease towers from licensed tower companies; GP's own leased-out towers and fibre earned BDT 2.3bn in 2025 [6 p.43] and its site leases sit in the BDT 59.7bn lease book.

EBITDA margin slips from 61.0% in 2023 to 57.0% in 2027F as energy and maintenance costs outgrow revenue

GP's costs are mostly fixed in the short run. In 2025 the largest items were sales and commissions (BDT 16.4bn, of which dealer and MFS commissions 13.9bn), BTRC charges (12.0bn), other operating costs (10.4bn, including fuel and energy 7.6bn), material and traffic (9.2bn), personnel (9.0bn) and operation and maintenance (8.5bn, up 22.6% on higher service maintenance fees) [6 p.43] [6 p.44]. EBITDA was BDT 92.7bn, 58.6% of revenue, down from 61.0% in 2023.

Energy is the cost to watch. GP warned in March 2026 that the Middle East conflict was disrupting fuel and LNG supplies to Bangladesh and that Q1 revenue would fall about 2% and EBITDA about 3% [10]. We grow fuel and energy costs 8% in 2026F and 2027F and 6% a year after (bear 15%/12%/8%). Personnel costs grow 7% a year from 2027F against wage inflation near 9% (the CFO cited inflation of 9.2%, as reported by The Daily Star) [15]; maintenance 6% a year. Commissions and BTRC charges are fixed shares of revenue. The result is an EBITDA margin of 57.6% in 2026F and about 56.7% from 2028F, about 4 points below the 2022–23 level.

Because spectrum and site leases sit below EBITDA under IFRS 16, EBITDA flatters a telecom operator. EBITDAaL (EBITDA after lease depreciation and lease interest) was BDT 67.7bn in 2025, a 42.8% margin, against 58.6% for EBITDA. The new spectrum takes EBITDAaL margin down to 39.5% in 2027F before it recovers to 42.3% in 2030F as revenue grows and the legacy lease book runs off.

BDT depreciation reaches the P&L through the foreign-exchange line (losses of BDT 1.4bn in 2022 and 0.6–0.8bn in 2024–25 on dollar payables) [9 p.9] [6 p.9] and through dollar-priced network equipment in capex. We assume an FX loss of BDT 0.7bn a year. A further 10% fall in the taka (FX loss of BDT 1.5–2.0bn a year and capex at 14–15% of revenue) cuts fair value 8.6%.

After capex and lease payments, free cash flow covered the dividend 0.92x in 2025 and only 0.83x in 2026F

The network is built out: 23,909 4G sites covering 98.34% of the population and 24,082 sites in all (99.6% coverage) at end-2025, and 5G in all divisional headquarters [1 p.99] [1 p.5]. On the company's own definition, which includes spectrum, capex was BDT 25.7bn in 2025 (16.3% of revenue) after BDT 39.0bn (24.6%) in 2024, a 'normalisation' after the 2023–24 modernisation cycle [1 p.99]; between 2015 and 2020 it ranged from BDT 13.8bn to 34.0bn [4 p.65]. In the cash flow statement GP spent BDT 14.0bn on network and IT in 2025, 8.9% of revenue, down from 13–15% in 2022–24 [6 p.11] [8 p.11] [9 p.11]. That was a low year: capex was BDT 10.3bn in the first half of 2026 alone (13.3% of revenue) [7 p.10] as 700MHz and 4G capacity were rolled out. We assume 13% of revenue in 2026–27F, falling to 12% by 2029F, so capex runs at 1.24x depreciation of owned assets: the network is not being starved to pay the dividend. Bharti-style 5G capex is not in our numbers; the unified licence allows 5G but no 5G spectrum auction has been announced.

Leases are the second cash outflow. GP paid BDT 12.7bn of lease principal in 2025 plus about BDT 5.1bn of interest [6 p.11]. In 2026F the new spectrum adds BDT 7,530mn of instalments a year, so lease payments rise to BDT 20.1bn of principal in 2026F. Lease liabilities rise from BDT 59.7bn to 99.3bn at December 2026F. Bank debt is small: BDT 12.0bn of short-term loans at June 2026 [7 p.7], which the CFO calls a debt-free balance sheet [15].

Is the dividend sustainable? GP paid 98.7% of profit for 2022, only 51% for 2023 (no interim was paid), 123% for 2024 and 98.2% for 2025 [9 p.10] [6 p.10] [10]. Over 2022–25 dividends paid (BDT 122.8bn) exceeded free cash flow after leases (BDT 124.0bn) by almost nothing. In 2026F the final 2025 and interim 2026 dividends (BDT 28.4bn) exceed free cash flow of BDT 23.4bn because of the first spectrum instalments, and short-term loans rise to about BDT 11.2bn. From 2027F free cash flow and dividends grow together, with cover of 1.00–1.04x. We therefore keep a 98% payout in the base case, but note that it leaves nothing for a lump-sum spectrum payment or a claim settlement: either would show up first as a lower interim dividend. The bear case cuts the payout to 85%.

The BTRC audit claim is the largest. In April 2019 BTRC demanded BDT 125.8bn, BDT 84.9bn of it for BTRC (including BDT 61.9bn of interest) and 40.9bn for NBR; GP disputes all of it, deposited BDT 20bn under a 2020 Appellate Division order and paid BDT 3.9bn in 2023 as part of a separate VAT ruling [6 p.59] [6 p.60]. The auditor repeats the matter as an emphasis of matter in every report, most recently for June 2026 [7 p.2]. We size it in two states. If GP loses, the claim with interest to date is about BDT 115.4bn (we assume 15% simple interest a year after 2017 on the BDT 23.0bn principal, since BTRC's rate is not disclosed); less the BDT 3.9bn paid in 2023 that leaves BDT 111.5bn, against which the BDT 20bn deposit is applied. If GP wins, the deposit, booked as a non-current receivable, comes back. Our base probability of losing is 25%: the Appellate Division has kept the injunction in place since 2019–20 and GP disputes the method and period of the audit, but it lost the related VAT case and paid in 2023. The bridge item is therefore BDT 20bn − 25% × 111.5bn = BDT 7.9bn deducted (-5.8 a share). At a 50% probability of losing fair value falls 9.5%; losing for certain cuts it 28.4%. The Title Suit's next date was 5-Oct-2026 according to the auditor's report of 14-Jul-2026; we found no report of the outcome by 31-Oct-2026.

We forecast EPS of 21.27 in 2026F, 19.87 in 2027F and 24.85 in 2030F as spectrum costs peak then fade

The quarterly run-rate anchors 2026. Revenue was BDT 37.6bn in Q1, 39.8bn in Q2 and 40.3bn in Q3; profit after tax was BDT 6.6bn, 7.6bn and 7.5bn [7 p.8] [10] [13]. Our 2026F profit of 28.7bn implies BDT 7.0bn in Q4, close to the BDT 6.9bn of Q4-2025. EPS of 21.27 compares with 21.90 in 2025.

Management's view, from the Q3 call (auto-captions, commentary only): revenue returned to modest year-on-year growth in Q3 after two quarters of decline, ARPU was 'almost stable' year on year, data usage grew about 12%, the subscriber base was rebuilt to almost 87mn with 53mn data users, EBITDA was flat with a margin near 59%, and year-to-date capex was 12.3% of sales with more network spending planned in Q4. Management said the Finance Act 2026 withdrew the Tk300 SIM tax, expects continued energy-cost pressure, and gave no numerical guidance for 2027 or on the spectrum renewal [22]. This supports our 2027F base (ARPU +2%) more than the bear case, but it is management's view, not a forecast we adopt.

For 2027F the main moving part is the spectrum. Depreciation of owned assets rises with capex (to BDT 17.1bn); right-of-use depreciation stays near BDT 18–19bn because the 2026 spectrum replaces expiring 2G assets; but lease interest jumps from BDT 5.8bn to 9.7bn on the larger lease book. Profit before tax therefore falls to 45.5bn even though EBITDA rises 2.5%, and EPS falls 6.6%. From 2028F revenue growth of 4.5%–4.0% and a shrinking lease book lift EPS 5.6%–9.7% a year.

Longer record: operating margin was 35–46% in 2015–20 and 35.7–42.3% since 2021; ROE was 64–98% in 2015–20 and the payout 99–113% except 2019 (51%) [4 p.64] [1 p.99]. How our numbers compare with history (the §4b check): EBITDA margin of 57.0%–56.0% sits below GP's 2022–25 range of 58.6–61.0%; ROE of 47.7%–55.6% is inside the 49–59% range of 2023–25 because the near-100% payout keeps equity at about BDT 56–63bn; capex of 12–13% of revenue sits inside the 8.9–15.0% range. Revenue growth of about 4.0% a year from 2028F is close to the 2015–25 record (4.2% a year) and above 2018–25 (2.5%); this is the assumption that the price of BDT 237 most depends on.

Fair value BDT 92–341; base 213 = 4.2x 2027F EV/EBITDA and a 9.4% yield on dividends paid in the next 12 months

We use three methods, weighted 50/25/25. The DCF values free cash flow after leases: operating profit after 41% tax, plus depreciation, less capex, working capital, lease principal and after-tax lease interest. Spectrum and site leases are therefore treated as operating payments, and lease liabilities are not deducted again in the bridge. We discount 2027–30F at a WACC of 14.3% and use terminal growth of 5.0%, below Bangladesh's nominal GDP growth because a saturated telecom market grows with prices, not volumes.

The risk-free rate is the 10-year Bangladesh Government Treasury Bond cut-off of 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026 [12]. GP's raw two-year weekly beta against the DSEX is 0.59 (R² 0.26); Blume-adjusted it is 0.72. The fit is weak and the weekly prices include ex-dividend drops, but a low beta is consistent with a defensive, dividend-paying utility. With an equity risk premium of 7.5% (mature market plus country risk) the cost of equity is 14.7%. Bank debt is 5% of capital, so WACC is 14.3%.

Bridge to equity: enterprise value at December 2026 of BDT 306.3bn, plus cash of BDT 6.0bn, less bank loans of BDT 11.2bn and less the probability-weighted BTRC claim of BDT 7.9bn, gives equity of BDT 293.2bn. Per share and discounted two months to today, the DCF value is BDT 212.3.

The dividend-yield method asks what yield a buyer needs. With a near-100% payout, the Gordon model gives a required yield of cost of equity less growth, 9.7%. The dividends a buyer today receives in the next twelve months (final 2026 and interim 2027) are BDT 20.08 a share; dividing by 9.7% and deducting the claim per share gives BDT 201.2. For comparison the 10-year government bond yields 9.27% [12], so at BDT 237.3 GP's trailing declared yield of 8.8% is near the risk-free rate with growth attached. Two caveats. First, 5% growth with a 98% payout is consistent only because growth here is funded by capex and leases that are deducted before dividends, not by retained profit: dividends paid track free cash flow after leases (cover about 1.0x). Second, for that reason this leg uses the same cash flows as the DCF and is a cross-check on the DCF's discount-rate and growth inputs, not an independent valuation.

The EV/EBITDA leg is a justified multiple, not a trailing one. Free cash flow after capex, leases and tax averages 31.1% of EBITDA in 2027–30F; at a WACC of 14.3% and steady growth of 5.0% from 2027F, that cash conversion is worth 3.51x EBITDA on an after-lease EV (4.58x if lease liabilities are added back, the basis of the historical figures). Applied to 2027F EBITDA of 92.9bn, plus cash and less loans and the BTRC item, it gives BDT 227.0, against BDT 212.3 for the DCF. The two legs differ only in the growth path: the DCF uses our explicit 2027–30F forecast (revenue growth 3.5%–4.5%) and 5.0% after; this leg assumes 5.0% from 2027F. The dividend leg also assumes 5.0%. As a cross-check, GP traded at 5.60x (Dec-2020) and 5.87x (Dec-2021) when revenue grew 2–5% a year [5 p.9] [5 p.10], 5.27x at Dec-2024 after the August-2024 rally and 4.40x at Dec-2025; we exclude 2022–23, when the DSE floor price held the stock at BDT 286.6. Today it is 4.19x 2025 EBITDA. Our justified 4.58x sits below the faster-growth 2020–21 years, consistent with flat revenue today. Weights stay 50/25/25: the DCF carries the explicit forecast, while the two cross-checks test the growth path and what an income buyer would pay; none of the three is independent of our cash-flow forecast.

The peer table is a cross-check, not an input: the data vendor does not say how it treats leases, and on its own basis it shows GP at 4.3x. Frontier Asian operators trade at 3.6–6.4x with a median of 4.53x; Bharti's 11.3x reflects India's growth and pricing power. GP at 4.2x is in line with the frontier group and a little below its own history.

The range is wide because GP is a mature business priced on small differences in growth: one point of ARPU growth a year moves the terminal cash flow, which is 71% of the DCF. The base value of BDT 213 implies 4.2x 2027F EV/EBITDA, 10.7x 2027F earnings and a 9.4% yield on dividends paid in the next 12 months. A sum of the parts is not used: GP has no subsidiaries and its only associate is fully impaired.

A price war is the biggest risk (-12% to fair value); watch the spectrum renewal price before 10-Nov-2026

Each risk below is tied to the line it moves and sized with a full re-run of the model (claim rows use the equity bridge only). The largest single risk is a price war that holds ARPU flat: it cuts fair value 11.7%, because revenue growth compounds into the terminal value. Paying the full net BTRC claim would cost 28.4%. The spectrum renewal price, the tax rate, the taka and supplementary duty each move fair value by 2–7%.

Dated catalysts: BTRC's final renewal price and payment terms for the 32.4MHz expiring on 10-Nov-2026; the 2026 full-year results and final dividend (early February 2027, the board met on 2-Feb-2026 last year); the AGM in April; Q1-2027 results in late April; the June 2027 budget (supplementary duty, SIM tax, the listed-operator tax rate); and any hearing in the BTRC audit title suit, whose next date was 5-Oct-2026 per the auditor's report of 14-Jul-2026 (outcome not found as of 31-Oct-2026) [7 p.2]. A new chairman, Fridtjof Rusten, took over on 26-Oct-2026 [10].

• Renewal price: each BDT 10bn above our BDT 53.6bn base costs about BDT 5 a share (Sensitivity grid 2).
• ARPU: quarterly revenue growth turning positive y/y in Q4-2026 or Q1-2027 would support the base case; another fall would point to the bear case.
• Dividend: the final 2026 dividend in February 2027; a payout below 90% would signal that management is keeping cash for spectrum.
• Robi: if Robi keeps growing about 7% (its H1-2026 rate as reported by The Financial Express) while GP is flat, GP loses about 1 point of revenue share a year.
• Energy: GP flagged LNG and fuel supply risk in March 2026; outages lift diesel costs at sites.

Model update: this report uses the audited statements to 31-Dec-2025, the audited interim statements to 30-Jun-2026 and the announced Q3-2026 figures (EPS, NAV, operating cash flow from DSE; revenue as reported by The Business Standard). The Q3-2026 statements were not yet in our filings database. We will update the model when the Q3 statements and the 2026 annual statements are filed.

Data gaps, stated openly: operating figures (subscribers, ARPU, revenue mix, sites, coverage) come from GP's annual reports to 2025; 2026 quarterly operating figures and market data for other operators come from news reports and are attributed. GP's Q3-2026 earnings-call slides are not available. The call is in our sources only as auto-captions, so we use it for management commentary only; it is not used in the model. We have not read the FY27 Finance Act text (management says the SIM tax was withdrawn), and the renewal terms for the 2026 spectrum are not confirmed.

FAQ

What is Grameenphone's fair value?

Our fair value range is BDT 92–341 a share with a base of 213, from a DCF, a dividend-yield model and GP's own average EV/EBITDA, against a price of BDT 237.3 on 29-Oct-2026.

Is Grameenphone's dividend sustainable?

Broadly yes, but with no cushion. Free cash flow after capex and lease payments covered dividends 0.92x in 2025 and 0.83x in 2026F; from 2027F cover is 1.00–1.04x with a 98% payout. A lump-sum spectrum payment or a BTRC claim settlement would force a lower payout or more borrowing.

How much does the 2026 spectrum renewal cost GP?

BTRC has proposed renewal prices 10–30% below existing rates; pro rata by MHz GP's 32.4MHz would cost about BDT 53.6bn at the proposed price and BDT 68.9bn at existing rates. The final price and payment terms were not set when we wrote this.

What is the BTRC audit claim against Grameenphone?

A 2019 demand for BDT 125.8bn (BTRC 84.9bn including 61.9bn of interest to 2017, NBR 40.9bn) from an audit of 1997–2014. GP disputes it in court and has deposited BDT 20bn. We assume a 25% chance of losing about BDT 111bn (interest to date assumed) and a 75% chance of recovering the deposit.

How does Grameenphone compare with Robi?

GP had 83.9mn subscribers and a 45.3% share at end-2025 (annual report). On BTRC data reported by The Financial Express, GP had 87.2mn subscriptions in August 2026 against Robi's 59.0mn. Robi's revenue grew 7% in H1-2026 as reported by The Financial Express, while GP's fell 2.5%.

What tax does Grameenphone pay?

A 40% corporate rate as a listed mobile operator, 5.5% revenue share plus 1% social obligation fund and spectrum charges to BTRC; together 20.0% of revenue in 2025. Customers also pay 15% VAT and 20% supplementary duty on usage.

Sources

1. Grameenphone Ltd Annual Report 2025 (integrated report: MD&A, KPIs, directors' report; 170 pages) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. Grameenphone Ltd Annual Report 2024 (integrated report) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Grameenphone Ltd Annual Report 2022 (integrated report) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. Grameenphone Ltd Annual Report 2020 (six-year financial and operating summary 2015-2020) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. Grameenphone Ltd audited financial statements, year to 31-Dec-2021 (with 2020 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. Grameenphone Ltd audited financial statements, year to 31-Dec-2025 (statements and notes only, 62 pages) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. Grameenphone Ltd audited interim condensed financial statements, six months to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. Grameenphone Ltd audited financial statements, year to 31-Dec-2024 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
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10. DSE announcements for GP, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, Q1-Q3 2026 results, 700MHz demand note, Q1 energy disclosure, credit rating) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
11. AnalystBro market data: DSE:GP and DSEX bars (chart_bars), regional telecom screen (screener_run), 29/30-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
12. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction cut-off yields (10-year BGTB 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026) and scheduled banks lending rate · link · accessed 2026-10-31
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14. The Daily Star, 'Grameenphone's profit falls 4% in first nine months of 2026', Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
15. The Daily Star, 'GP logs lowest H1 profit in at least 4 years', 16-Jul-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
16. The Financial Express, 'Mobile subscriptions go up by 0.65m in Aug' (BTRC data), 24-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
17. The Business Standard, 'Telcos seek deeper cuts in spectrum renewal prices', 27-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
18. The Business Standard, 'Budget FY27: Key measures and takeaways', Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
19. The Financial Express, 'AMTOB hails move to withdraw SIM tax outlined in budget', Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
20. The Financial Express, 'Robi's H1 profit jumps 29pc on strong revenue growth', Jul-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
21. The Business Standard, 'Robi posts Tk747cr profit in nine months', Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
22. GP Q3 2026 earnings call, 27-Oct-2026 (YouTube, auto-captions; management commentary only) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
23. AnalystBro GP model (model.xlsx): forecasts, valuation, scenarios, sensitivities · link · accessed 2026-10-31