Confidence Cement financial analysis: associate profit of Tk 1.2bn covers a cement loss (Oct 2026)

A small clinker grinder whose profit comes from a power-plant associate: Tk 1,208m of associate profit against a Tk 166m cement loss in FY2025

What it is. Confidence Cement PLC, founded in 1991 and the oldest private cement maker in Bangladesh, grinds imported clinker with gypsum, slag, fly ash and limestone at one plant at Bhatiary, Sitakunda, near Chattogram [1 p.5] [2 p.1]. It is the listed flagship of the Confidence group, whose other businesses include steel towers, batteries, telecom infrastructure and about 393 MW of oil-fired (HFO) power plants [1 p.5] [1 p.11]. Its fiscal year ends on 30 June: FY2025 is July 2024 to June 2025 [1 p.78] [6]. Installed capacity is 1,200,000 tonnes a year; it produced 518,592 tonnes in FY2025, a utilisation of 43%, and sold 523,717 tonnes [1 p.117].

Where it stands. FY2025 revenue was flat at Tk 4,089m and the cement business lost money before its associates: operating profit of Tk 397m did not cover Tk 513m of finance cost and a Tk 66m FX loss, leaving a loss of Tk 166m [1 p.78]. Net profit still rose 29% to Tk 967m (EPS Tk 11.21) because its 36% share of Confidence Power Holdings Ltd (CPHL), the group's power holding company, contributed Tk 1,208m [1 p.78] [1 p.122]. In the nine months to March 2026 the same pattern held: a Tk 141m loss before associates and Tk 802m of associate profit, for net profit of Tk 601m, down 28% [2 p.6]. The audited FY2026 accounts are not yet public: the board was to meet on 29-Oct-2026 to consider them, and no result had been posted on DSE news by 1-Nov-2026 [5]. The shares closed at Tk 57.2 on 29-Oct-2026 [7].

What drives shareholder returns. Two businesses sit in one share. The cement plant earns Tk 1,060 of gross profit per tonne on about 520 kt a year [18], which is not enough to pay Tk 513m of interest. The power associate earns several times more on paper, but the profit stays in CPHL: Confidence's investment in CPHL grew from Tk 5,015m to Tk 6,539m in FY2025 while its cash dividends from all investments were Tk 1.1m [1 p.97] [1 p.80]. Equity-method profit lifts EPS and NAV; it pays neither interest nor dividends unless CPHL distributes cash or the stake is sold. Confidence's holding in CPHL (renamed Confidence Enterprises Ltd from 15-Sep-2025) also fell from 36.00% at June 2025 to 29.79% at March 2026, and the interim report does not say why [2 p.9] [2 p.13].

• Why did the holding in CPHL fall from 36.00% to 29.79%? Signpost: the FY2026 annual report's associate note (note 7.02), due after the 29-Oct-2026 board meeting.
• Will CPHL pay cash to Confidence? Signpost: 'dividend received' in the FY2026 cash-flow statement against Tk 1.1m in FY2025.
• Can the cement plant cover its interest? Signpost: Q1 FY2027 results (due by 14-Nov-2026): profit before associates against Tk -140.7m for 9M FY2026.
• How was the Tk 1,410m sale of Confidence Cement Dhaka settled? Signpost: other receivables (Tk 584m at March 2026) and advances in the FY2026 balance sheet.
• Will the qualified opinion clear? Signpost: the FY2026 auditor's report (new auditor Hussain Forhad & Co.) and the unclaimed-dividend transfer to CMSF.

One 1.2 mt grinding plant at Sitakunda, run at 43% for two years

History. Confidence Cement was set up on 2-May-1991 under the industrial policy of that year and calls itself the pioneer of private cement in Bangladesh [1 p.5]. The chairman, Engr. Rezaul Karim, organised the founding group and later built the group's steel fabrication, telecom tower and power businesses [1 p.9]. The company changed its year-end from December to June in 2016, so FY2016 was a six-month period; this note starts its history at FY2017 [3 p.36]. It has one subsidiary, Zodiac Logistics Ltd (99%), which runs river vessels and earned Tk 51.4m of revenue in FY2025, almost all from carrying for Confidence [1 p.28] [1 p.117].

Capacity and volume. The plant has 1,200,000 tonnes of annual capacity. Production was 552,952 t in FY2022 and 581,785 t in FY2023 [4 p.26], then 517,824 t in FY2024 and 518,592 t in FY2025, a utilisation of 43% in both of the last two years [1 p.117]. Sales were 520,578 t and 523,717 t, of which exports to neighbouring markets were only 5,837 t and 4,050 t [1 p.117]. The directors' report says sales volume fell 0.61% and value 0.43% at the cement plant, and that the company 'was unable to adjust its selling prices and volume' to offset higher input costs [1 p.26] [1 p.27]. A ready-mix concrete plant (2.4m cubic feet a year) sold only 63,984 CFT in FY2024 and was shut and put up for sale in FY2025 after VAT on ready-mix and dollar shortages cut demand; Tk 175m of its assets are held for sale [1 p.26] [1 p.77].

Price per tonne. Cement-plant revenue per tonne sold was Tk 7,822 in FY2024 and Tk 7,808 in FY2025 [18]. Gross local sales were Tk 4,656m before Tk 607m of VAT [1 p.117], so VAT takes about 13% of the invoiced price. Cost of sales per tonne rose from Tk 6,701 to Tk 6,748 and gross profit per tonne fell from Tk 1,153 to Tk 1,060 [18]. In 9M FY2026 revenue rose 7.3% to Tk 3,407m but raw materials consumed rose 15.8% to Tk 2,284m, and gross margin fell from 15.9% to 11.4% [2 p.6] [2 p.20] [18]; the interim report does not give tonnes.

Customers and channels. Local trade receivables at March 2026 were Tk 422m from dealers and Tk 301m from corporate buyers, plus Tk 36m still owed by ready-mix customers [2 p.14], so dealers carry a little more than half of the credit book. Selling and distribution spending is small for a cement brand: Tk 74.8m in FY2025, or about Tk 143 a tonne, with advertising of only Tk 2.8m [1 p.120]. The company relies on its regional name around Chattogram and on group links to corporate buyers rather than on national campaigns.

About 1.3% of a market with twice the capacity it needs; peers on their own filings

Market. The company's own report describes national cement consumption of about 38 million tonnes in 2024, nearly double a decade earlier, per-capita use of about 210 kg, and installed capacity of about 84 mt a year, which 'significantly exceeds' demand and causes 'intense price competition and margin pressure' [1 p.25]. The Daily Star reported 86.02 mt of capacity at 41 plants, citing the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association, against 39.75 mt of demand in 2025 [12]. On those figures Confidence's 524 kt is about 1.3% of the market.

Clinker duty. The FY2025 directors' report notes that clinker import duty moved 'from a fixed rate to a 15 percent ad valorem basis', which hurts grinders that depend on imports [1 p.25]. That links the duty to the dollar price: when clinker or the dollar rises, so does the duty. LafargeHolcim's chief executive told The Daily Star in April 2026 that imported clinker had gone from about US$42-43 to about US$53 a tonne [13]. Confidence's Q3 FY2026 disclosure blamed its lower EPS on 'the significant increase in the cost of imported raw materials, which grew disproportionately higher than the increase in sales revenue' [5].

Peers on the same basis. The table uses each company's own audited statements. Confidence, Crown and Premier report June years (FY2025) and are shown standalone/separate; Heidelberg and LafargeHolcim report December 2025. Labels differ, so we quote them: Confidence reports 'Revenue' and 'Profit from operating activities' [1 p.78]; Crown 'Net revenue' and 'Operating profit' [8 p.180]; Premier 'Revenue' and 'Profit before interest and tax' [9 p.195]; Heidelberg 'Sales' and 'Operating profit/(loss)' [10 p.99]; LafargeHolcim 'Revenue' and 'Operating profit' [11 p.61]. FX losses are added to finance cost for all because Crown books its FX loss inside finance cost while Confidence ('Foreign currency exchange loss') and Premier ('Exchange Loss') show it separately; Heidelberg reports 'Net finance income', shown as a negative cost.

Three points stand out. First, Confidence's gross and operating margins (13.6% and 9.7%) are close to Crown's, so the plant is not badly run for a grinder; it is small. Crown sold 4,083 kt from 5,736 kt of capacity [8 p.195] [8 p.208], almost eight times Confidence's volume. Second, finance cost and FX took 146% of Confidence's operating profit, against 55% at Crown and 76% at Premier, because Confidence carries Tk 6.2bn of debt on a Tk 4.1bn revenue base. Third, it is the only one of the five whose net profit is mostly an associate's: 125% of net profit, against 6% at Crown. Its 12.7% return on year-end equity, second among the five, is a power-sector return reported through a cement company.

Clinker is 58% of cost of sales at Tk 5,922 a tonne, paid for with US-dollar deferred LCs

Clinker. The plant consumed 346,303 t of clinker costing Tk 2,050.9m in FY2025, or Tk 5,922 a tonne, against 347,464 t at Tk 5,722 a tonne in FY2024 [1 p.101] [18]. Clinker was 67% of each tonne of cement produced and 58% of cost of sales [18]. The other inputs were slag (111,375 t, Tk 269m), limestone (46,000 t, Tk 96m), gypsum (21,270 t, Tk 65m), fly ash (20,678 t, Tk 61m) and grinding aid (Tk 33m) [1 p.101]. A 3.5% rise in the clinker cost per tonne on a flat volume explains most of the Tk 46m rise in cost of sales; the directors' report puts it down to 'higher prices of imported raw materials and locally purchased spare parts amid inflationary pressures' [1 p.26].

The taka and FX losses. Clinker is paid for with deferred letters of credit in US dollars. These stood at US$15.87m (Tk 1,936m at Tk 122 per dollar) at June 2025 and US$16.39m (Tk 1,918m at Tk 117) a year earlier [1 p.131]. The company's own sensitivity is that a 5% move in the dollar changes profit by Tk 96.6m [1 p.131], about 9% of FY2025 profit before tax. FX losses were Tk 339.2m in FY2023, when the taka fell sharply, then Tk 83.3m in FY2024 and Tk 66.2m in FY2025 [1 p.36]. Deferred LCs rose to Tk 2,008m at March 2026 [2 p.18]; the 9M FY2026 statements show no separate FX line, so any exchange difference sits inside 'bank interest and charges' [2 p.6].

Freight. The company does not publish a freight line or a CFR clinker price. What the filings show is that its subsidiary Zodiac Logistics carries for it by river (Tk 50.0m of intra-group revenue eliminated in FY2025) [1 p.117], that an 'income from transport' line of Tk 23.5m in FY2024 fell to nil in FY2025 and jetty income turned into a Tk 3.1m loss [1 p.120], and that clinker cost per tonne, which includes freight to the plant, rose 3.5% [18]. We do not split freight from the dollar price.

Power and gas. Factory overhead at the cement plant was flat at Tk 690.5m, but its mix shifted: power fell from Tk 219.8m to Tk 162.2m while gas rose from Tk 79.3m to Tk 133.7m [1 p.118]. Combined energy cost was about Tk 571 a tonne produced [18]. Power tariffs rose 16.68% from June 2026, according to Prothom Alo [14]; on FY2025's Tk 162m power bill, each 10% is about Tk 16m.

Confidence Power Holdings: Tk 1,208m of profit share in FY2025, Tk 1.1m of dividends received

What the associates are. At June 2025 Confidence had three associates and one subsidiary [1 p.95]: Confidence Power Holdings Ltd (CPHL, 36.00%, 83.65m shares), the holding company for the group's power plants; Confidence Batteries Ltd (21.00%); and Confidence Cement Dhaka Ltd (CCDL, 50.00% of ordinary shares), a second cement project near Dhaka. The vice chairman, Imran Karim, describes CPHL as holding 393.36 MW of HFO-based power plants in four subsidiaries and developing a 660 MW LNG-based plant through Zodiac Power Mirsharai Ltd [1 p.11]. The chairman's profile lists Confidence Power Bogra, Confidence Power Rangpur, Confidence Power and Energy PLC and Zodiac Power Chittagong among the group's companies [1 p.9].

How the profit is counted. CPHL's net profit attributable to owners was Tk 3,354.7m in FY2025 (Tk 2,278.1m in FY2024); Confidence books 36% of it, Tk 1,207.7m (Tk 820.1m) [1 p.97] [1 p.122]. CPHL's own balance sheet is large: total assets Tk 53,428m, equity Tk 21,319m (including Tk 3,156m of preference capital) and liabilities Tk 32,108m [1 p.97]. Confidence also booked Tk 315.8m of other comprehensive income as its share of a land revaluation at CPHL in FY2025 [1 p.78]. Confidence Batteries has negative equity of Tk -172.8m and the investment is carried at nil; its FY2025 audited accounts were not available, so no share was booked [1 p.26] [1 p.96]. CCDL had no revenue and a Tk 61.3m loss in its latest accounts (FY2024), and its carrying value is also nil [1 p.98].

Cash, not just profit. The associates' contribution grew from Tk 238m in FY2017 to Tk 1,208m in FY2025 [3 p.35] [3 p.36] [1 p.35] [1 p.36], and investments grew from 7.8% to 50.6% of total assets [18]. But the cash-flow statement shows dividends received of Tk 1.14m in both FY2024 and FY2025, which note 32 identifies as the dividend from Central Depository Bangladesh, not from CPHL [1 p.80] [1 p.122]. In FY2025 Confidence paid Tk 546m of interest and Tk 86m of dividends while its operating cash flow was Tk -37m; the gap was met with Tk 434m of new short-term borrowing [1 p.80]. So the associate raises reported earnings and NAV, while the parent's lenders are serviced by the cement business and new loans.

The fall to 29.79%. The Q3 FY2026 report shows the stake at 29.79% and applies that rate to CPHL's 9M profit of Tk 2,691m, while the same-period comparative uses 36.00% [2 p.21]. The carrying value still moved only by the share of profit (Tk 6,539m to Tk 7,340m), with no disposal or dilution line [2 p.13]. A lower percentage with no change in Confidence's shares implies that CPHL issued new shares to others; the filing does not say so, and the explanation should appear in the FY2026 annual report. On 9M FY2026 figures, each percentage point of CPHL is about Tk 27m of Confidence's profit [18].

Interim restatement. DSE's Q2 announcement gave consolidated EPS of Tk 7.38 for July-December 2025; the Q3 announcement gave Tk 7.12 for July 2025-March 2026 and Tk 1.47 for January-March 2026 [5]. Those figures imply that first-half EPS was cut to about Tk 5.65, consistent with the stake change being applied back to July 2025. The company has not published a reconciliation; we flag it as a gap rather than a loss quarter, because no quarter in FY2025 or FY2026 shows negative EPS on DSE [5].

Inside the group: a Tk 1,360m advance to Confidence Cement Dhaka, sold to CPHL for Tk 1,410m

The Dhaka project. Confidence held 50% of CCDL's ordinary shares and had paid Tk 1,359.75m to it as an 'advance for share purchase', which sat in current assets at June 2024 and June 2025 [1 p.103]. CCDL's own balance sheet carried Tk 1,559.8m of 'share money deposit' and Tk 4,477m of non-current liabilities against Tk 6,169m of non-current assets [1 p.98]. The rights issue planned to fund more of this investment (1 for 3 at Tk 35, raising Tk 1,006m) was refused by BSEC on 29-Jun-2025, and a request to reconsider was rejected on 28-Aug-2025 [1 p.29] [5].

The sale. On 4-Aug-2025 and again on 4-Sep-2025 the board decided, 'to meet its immediate financial obligations and exigencies', to sell all 140,975,157 CCDL shares to CPHL for Tk 1,409,751,570; shareholders approved it at an EGM on 18-Oct-2025 [5] [1 p.26]. Both sides are Confidence group companies whose boards overlap: the chairman Rezaul Karim is also chairman of CCDL and a director of Confidence Enterprises (formerly CPHL), and vice chairman Imran Karim is managing director of CCDL and chairman of Confidence Enterprises [1 p.9] [1 p.11]. The price is Tk 50m above the advance; no independent valuation is mentioned in the filings we read. By March 2026 advances had fallen by Tk 1,083m and other receivables had risen to Tk 584m from Tk 43m [2 p.15], which suggests part of the price was still owed; the interim notes do not name the counterparty.

Other group links. Confidence holds Tk 1,031.5m of unquoted shares in Confidence Infrastructure PLC [2 p.13], which is itself a corporate director of Confidence holding 3.92m shares [1 p.38]. It also holds Tk 41.2m in Asian Paints (BD), a group joint venture [1 p.99] [1 p.9]. Directors' remuneration was Tk 15.3m in both years, paid to the managing director Zahir Uddin Ahmed, vice chairman Rupam Kishore Barua and two directors [1 p.119]. The related-party note lists balances rather than the year's transaction values for most counterparties [1 p.126], so investors cannot see, for example, how much cement the group's own companies buy.

Line items: revenue has not grown since FY2019; finance cost has quadrupled since FY2017

Revenue. Revenue was Tk 3,629m in FY2017, peaked at Tk 4,833m in FY2019 and has stayed between Tk 3.9bn and Tk 4.6bn since [3 p.35] [3 p.36] [1 p.35] [1 p.36]. FY2020 fell 18% with Covid in the last quarter [3 p.28]; FY2023's Tk 4,544m reflected higher prices after the taka's fall rather than volume. With capacity unchanged at 1.2 mt and production near 520 kt, revenue moves with price per tonne.

Gross margin. Gross margin was 17.5% in FY2017, fell to 5.4% by FY2020, turned negative (-2.1%) in FY2022 when clinker and freight costs rose faster than prices, and recovered to 14.7% in FY2024 and 13.6% in FY2025 [18]. In 9M FY2026 it was 11.4% against 15.9% a year earlier [18].

Overheads. Administrative expenses rose 7.8% to Tk 93.3m, including Tk 1.4m of rights-issue costs and Tk 0.9m for the EGM [1 p.119]; selling and distribution rose 19.9% to Tk 74.8m, mainly salaries and travel [1 p.120]. Other operating income fell from Tk 36.7m to Tk 9.3m because transport income stopped and jetty income turned negative [1 p.120]. Before FY2021 administrative expenses were much larger (Tk 377m in FY2017) [3 p.36].

Finance cost. Finance cost rose from Tk 67m in FY2017 to Tk 513m in FY2025 [3 p.35] [3 p.36] [1 p.35] [1 p.36]. Within FY2025, interest on LATR (loans against trust receipts, used to retire import bills) jumped from Tk 23.8m to Tk 108.3m and on cash credit from Tk 88.2m to Tk 111.0m, while time-loan interest fell from Tk 229.6m to Tk 205.1m [1 p.121]. Working-capital rates were 13.00-14.50% in FY2025 against 9-11.75% in FY2024 [1 p.114], so the rise came from rates more than from new debt. In 9M FY2026 'bank interest and charges' fell 12% to Tk 414.9m as short-term loans were cut by Tk 375m [2 p.6] [2 p.8].

Tax. Net tax was only Tk 75.2m on Tk 1,041.8m of profit before tax in FY2025, an effective rate of 7.2% [18], because the associate share is booked net of CPHL's tax [1 p.78]. The company made no provision for workers' profit participation in FY2025 'due to the Company suffered net loss before considering unrealised profit from subsidiary and associates' [1 p.122], the company's own description of the associate profit as unrealised.

FY2026 so far: revenue up 7%, gross margin down to 11.4%, associate share down with the stake

The nine months to March 2026 show the cement business weakening while the associate held up. Revenue rose 7.3% to Tk 3,406.9m, but cost of sales rose 12.9% and gross profit fell 22.8% to Tk 388.8m [2 p.6]. Operating profit fell to Tk 257.9m and the loss before associates widened to Tk 140.7m from Tk 57.4m. The share of associates fell 15% to Tk 801.7m, all of it from the lower stake, since CPHL's own 9M profit rose to Tk 2,691m from Tk 2,622m [2 p.21]. Net profit was Tk 600.7m against Tk 838.3m [2 p.6].

In the third quarter alone revenue fell 8.8% to Tk 1,172m and the cement business swung from a Tk 48m profit before associates to a Tk 49m loss [2 p.6]. Consolidated EPS was Tk 1.47 against Tk 2.88 [5]. Cash flow improved: separate operating cash flow was Tk 445m for the nine months against Tk 200m, helped by a Tk 1,054m fall in advances, and short-term loans were reduced by Tk 375m [2 p.8] [2 p.22]. Borrowings were Tk 5,859m at March 2026 against Tk 6,169m at June 2025 [2 p.5].

FY2026 result. The board meeting for the audited FY2026 accounts was set for 29-Oct-2026 (passed); as of 1-Nov-2026 DSE news showed no FY2026 EPS, NAV or dividend for the company [5], so the outcome is unknown and the FY2026 annual report is a missing filing.

Ratios: ROE of 2-24%, interest cover below 1x in six of nine years

Returns. Return on average equity ranged from 1.8% (FY2022) to 23.6% (FY2021) and was 12.3% in FY2024 and 13.7% in FY2025 [18]. The swings follow the associate: FY2021's Tk 1,072m associate share and Tk 416m cement profit gave the best year; FY2022's cement loss of Tk 609m before associates gave the worst [3 p.35] [3 p.36] [1 p.35] [1 p.36]. Return on assets was 6.3% in FY2025, and asset turnover fell from 0.47x to 0.27x as investments grew to half of total assets [18].

Coverage. Operating profit covered finance cost 2.47 times in FY2017 and 1.78 times in FY2021; in the other seven years it was below 1.2x, and below 1x in five (FY2018-FY2020, FY2023 and FY2025) and negative in FY2022 [18]. Including FX losses, finance cost took 146% of operating profit in FY2025 and 335% in FY2023 [18]. The company's own ratio table shows interest cover of 2.80 times for FY2025 and 1.74 times for FY2024 [1 p.24]; that figure appears to count the associate profit, which brings in no cash. F16's red-flag level for finance cost is 60% of operating profit; Confidence has been above it, or had an operating loss, in every year except FY2017.

Leverage. Borrowings stayed between 0.72x and 0.99x of equity throughout [18], but equity includes the associate's accumulated profit. Net debt was Tk 5,938m at June 2025, 0.78 times equity [18]. Almost all of it is short term: Tk 5,952m of the Tk 6,169m was due within a year, including Tk 1,936m of deferred LCs, Tk 547m of LATR, Tk 2,540m of time loans and Tk 929m of cash credit [1 p.77] [2 p.18]. Current assets were 0.57 times current liabilities [1 p.77].

Working capital and cash conversion. Inventory days fell from 63 to 50, receivable days from 88 to 74 and payable days from 74 to 55 in FY2025 [18]. Operating cash flow per share was negative in FY2022 to FY2025 (Tk -14.44, -3.03, -3.36 and -0.43) [1 p.24], mainly because 'advance, deposits and prepayments' of Tk 2.3bn, including the CCDL advance and Tk 490m of advance income tax, absorbed cash [1 p.103]. Cash conversion against net profit is not meaningful while most of the profit is equity-accounted.

Tk 15.3bn of assets, half of them investments; a qualified audit for two years

At June 2025 total assets were Tk 15,303m: investments Tk 7,746m (CPHL Tk 6,539m, Confidence Infrastructure Tk 1,031m, the subsidiary Tk 99m), property and plant Tk 3,000m, capital work-in-progress Tk 319m, and current assets of Tk 3,923m [1 p.77] [1 p.95]. The capital work-in-progress has not moved since June 2024 (plant and machinery Tk 289m, civil works Tk 30m) [1 p.95]. Capital spending was Tk 1.2m in FY2025 and Tk 41.4m in FY2024 [1 p.80]: the plant is being maintained, not expanded.

Auditor's opinion. Rahman Mostafa Alam & Co. gave a qualified opinion on the FY2025 accounts. The basis reads: 'The Company's Unclaimed Dividend carried at Tk 96,300,628 as on 30 June 2025 under note: 22 to the financial statements. As per notification no- BSEC/CMRRCD/2021-391/20/Admin/121 dated 14 January 2021 the Company required to transfer the unclaimed dividend remained unpaid for three (3) years or more to Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Capital Market Stabilization Fund). The company has not yet transferred Tk 88,515,461 unclaimed dividend to the above mentioned fund.' [1 p.69]. The FY2024 accounts also received a qualified opinion, issued on 10-Sep-2024 [1 p.72]. The directors' report says the money could not be transferred 'due to a cash flow shortage' and will be when 'cash flow improves' [1 p.31]. DSE posted the qualified opinion on 3-Dec-2025 [5]. The auditor rotated out after three years and Hussain Forhad & Co. was proposed for FY2026 [1 p.29].

Contingent liabilities were small: Tk 64.5m of guarantees to gas companies, customs and the port authority [1 p.126]. Credit rating: CRAB rated the company AA3 long term and ST-2 short term with a stable outlook in February 2025 and again on 1-Mar-2026 [5].

Cash dividends cut from 25% (FY2021) to 5-10%; a Z-category week in December 2024

DSE's record shows cash dividends of 15% for FY2017-FY2020, 25% for FY2021, 5% for FY2022 and FY2023, and 10% for FY2024 and FY2025, with bonus shares of 20% (FY2017, FY2018), 15% (FY2019) and 5% (FY2020, FY2022, FY2023) [6]. The share count rose from 45.0m to 86.25m through those bonus issues [3 p.35] [1 p.35]. The cash payout was 9% of EPS in FY2025 and 12% in FY2024 [18]; the dividend policy refers to business performance and strategic initiatives without a target ratio [1 p.29].

Payment has not always been on time. DSE moved the shares to the 'Z' category from 4-Dec-2024 for 'non-disbursement of the approved dividend within the stipulated time frame', and back to 'A' from 8-Dec-2024 after the FY2024 dividend was paid [5]. The FY2025 dividend of Tk 1.00 a share (Tk 86.3m) had record date 25-Nov-2025, was approved at the AGM on 28-Dec-2025 and was reported paid on 1-Feb-2026 [5].

Market multiples as facts. At Tk 57.2 on 29-Oct-2026 the market value was Tk 4,934m on 86.25m shares [7] [6]. That is 5.1 times FY2025 consolidated EPS of Tk 11.23, 6.6 times trailing EPS of Tk 8.68 (Q4 FY2025 Tk 1.56 plus 9M FY2026 Tk 7.12), 0.60 times March 2026 consolidated NAV of Tk 94.82, and a 1.7% yield on the Tk 1.00 dividend [5]. The company printed a year-end P/E of 7.81 (FY2024, price Tk 67.80) and 4.43 (FY2025, price Tk 49.70) [1 p.24]. Over 52 weeks the shares traded between Tk 44.0 and Tk 74.6 [6] [7].

Founding families hold 30.34%; institutions 38%; two new independent directors named from 1-Dec-2025, subject to approval

At June 2025 sponsors held 30.34%, financial institutions 36.73%, mutual funds 0.61% and the general public 32.19% [1 p.107]; no one held 10% or more [1 p.38]. At 30-Sep-2026 DSE showed sponsors/directors still at 30.34%, institutions 38.38%, foreign 0.15% and public 31.13% [6]. Directors listed with holdings include vice chairman Rupam Kishore Barua (4.04m shares), Ahmed Anwar Hasan (3.48m) and Confidence Infrastructure as a corporate director (3.92m) [1 p.38].

The board has ten members including two independent directors [1 p.5]. The terms of independent directors Maj Gen Abul Kalam Mohammad Humayun Kabir (retd) and Rabeya Jamali ended on 30-Nov-2025 after six years; M. Nurul Alam FCS and Masuda Sultana FCS, ACA were appointed from 1-Dec-2025, subject to BSEC and shareholder approval, and Khalid Islam replaced Md. Alamgir Akber as Confidence Infrastructure's nominee from 1-Nov-2025 [1 p.29]. The company says it complied with 'most of' the corporate governance code conditions [1 p.32].

DSE news, last 24 months: quarterly results each November, February and May; the FY2024 and FY2025 10% dividends; the Z-category week in December 2024; the revised rights issue (December 2024), BSEC's refusal (June 2025) and rejection of review (August 2025); the CCDL sale and EGM (August-October 2025); the qualified-opinion notice (December 2025); CRAB AA3 ratings (February 2025, March 2026); and the board meeting notice for 29-Oct-2026 [5].

What will move the lines next: the FY2026 accounts, the CPHL stake, clinker and the taka

Passed, outcome unknown. The board meeting of 29-Oct-2026 to consider the FY2026 audited accounts has passed; no EPS, NAV or dividend for FY2026 had been posted on DSE news by 1-Nov-2026 [5]. When published, the annual report should explain the change in the CPHL stake, the restated first-half EPS, the settlement of the CCDL sale and whether the unclaimed dividend was transferred.

Costs. The clinker duty is now a percentage of the dollar price [1 p.25], so higher clinker prices (about US$53 a tonne by April 2026, per LafargeHolcim's chief executive [13]) raise duty as well; this moves cost of sales up. Power tariffs rose 16.68% from June 2026 [14], a smaller effect on a Tk 162m power bill. Volume. ECNEC approved 12 projects totalling Tk 1.69 trillion on 16-Sep-2026, according to Prothom Alo [15]; public works would lift volume only with a lag, and Confidence has spare capacity of about 680 kt. Finance cost. Working-capital rates of 13-14.5% [1 p.114] make each 1pp on Tk 5.9bn of short-term debt worth about Tk 60m a year.

Policy. The UN General Assembly adopted on 29-Oct-2026 in New York (30-Oct in Dhaka) the move of Bangladesh's LDC graduation from 24-Nov-2026 to 24-Nov-2029 [16] [17]. For Confidence the direct effect is small: exports were 4,050 t in FY2025 [1 p.117] and cement is sold at home. Any change to import duties or tax incentives tied to graduation now comes three years later than planned.

Risks: the associate and the dollar matter most; the cement plant needs price

Confidence Cement is two exposures in one share. The cement plant is a 1.2 mt grinder that has used 43% of its capacity for two years, earns about Tk 1,060 a tonne of gross profit and pays more in interest and FX than it earns from operations [18]. The associate is a large, leveraged power group whose Tk 3.4bn of FY2025 profit [1 p.97] flows into Confidence's EPS and NAV but not, so far, into its cash. The CPHL stake falling to 29.79%, the CCDL sale to CPHL and the refused rights issue all point to a parent that needs cash and is getting it from inside the group [2 p.13] [5].

• FY2026 annual report: CPHL stake and its cause, dividends received, CCDL sale proceeds, auditor's opinion.
• Q1 FY2027 results (by 14-Nov-2026): profit before associates against Tk -140.7m for 9M FY2026.
• Short-term borrowings and deferred LCs at each quarter-end (Tk 5,631m and Tk 2,008m at March 2026).
• Taka/US dollar rate and clinker prices reported by producers.
• DSE category and dividend payment dates each year.
• Monthly DSE shareholding pattern for sponsor changes (30.34% since at least June 2024).

FAQ

When does Confidence Cement's financial year end?

On 30 June. FY2025 ran from July 2024 to June 2025. The company moved from a December year-end in 2016.

Where does Confidence Cement's profit come from?

Mostly from its share of Confidence Power Holdings (renamed Confidence Enterprises Ltd), the group's power-plant holding company: Tk 1,208m in FY2025, while the cement business lost Tk 166m before that share.

Does Confidence Cement make its own clinker?

No. It grinds imported clinker; in FY2025 it used 346,303 tonnes at Tk 5,922 a tonne, 58% of cost of sales.

How much debt does Confidence Cement have?

Borrowings were Tk 6,169m at 30-Jun-2025 (0.81 times equity) and Tk 5,859m at 31-Mar-2026, almost all short term.

Why was the FY2025 audit opinion qualified?

Because Tk 88.5m of unclaimed dividends older than three years was not transferred to the Capital Market Stabilization Fund, which the company put down to a cash shortage.

Sources

1. Confidence Cement PLC Annual Report 2024-2025, year to 30-Jun-2025 (corpus CONFIDCEM_ANNUAL_2025_2, PDF page numbers) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
2. Confidence Cement PLC un-audited financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 (Q3 FY2026) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
3. Confidence Cement Limited Annual Report 2019-2020 (five-year tables FY2015-FY2020, p.35-36) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
4. Confidence Cement PLC Annual Report 2022-2023 (directors' report, production p.26) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
5. DSE announcements for CONFIDCEM, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (quarterly results, dividends, rights issue, sale of Confidence Cement Dhaka, credit ratings, category changes, board meeting of 29-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
6. DSE company page for CONFIDCEM: cash and bonus dividend history, shareholding pattern (31-Aug-2026, 30-Sep-2026), market data · link · accessed 2026-11-01
7. AnalystBro market data: DSE daily bars for CONFIDCEM to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
8. Crown Cement PLC Annual Report 2024-2025 (statements p.179-180, sales volume p.195, capacity p.208) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
9. Premier Cement Mills PLC Annual Report 2024-2025 (standalone statements p.194-195, corpus PREMIERCEM_ANNUAL_2025) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
10. Heidelberg Materials Bangladesh PLC Annual Report 2025 (statements p.98-99) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
11. LafargeHolcim Bangladesh PLC Annual Report 2025 (consolidated statements p.61) · link · accessed 2026-11-01
12. The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh's cement producers reject US overcapacity claims' (BCMA: 41 plants, 86.02 mt capacity, 39.75 mt demand in 2025), 17 Mar 2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
13. The Daily Star, 'Cement makers under strain as war drives up input costs', 29 Apr 2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
14. Prothom Alo English, 'Power tariff rises by 16.68pc from June', 3 Jun 2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
15. Prothom Alo English, 'ECNEC approves Gabtali-Dasherkandi metro rail project, 11 others worth Tk 1.69 trillion', 16 Sep 2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
16. The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation', 30 Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
17. The Business Standard, 'Bangladesh gets 3 more years for LDC graduation', 30 Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-11-01
18. AnalystBro history and ratio model for CONFIDCEM (model.xlsx, the workbook below) · link · accessed 2026-11-01