Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills valuation report: fair value BDT 45.2–140 (Oct 2026)
BSRM Ltd fair value range Tk 45-140: a billet and rod maker plus a 31% BSRM Steels stake, with the taka as the swing factor
Fair value range Tk 45-140 by sum of the parts; price Tk 95.4 is inside it. FY27F EPS falls to Tk 19.06 from Tk 23.54 as power, the taka and a weaker BSRM Steels bite; the US$ trade loans are the swing factor.
For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.
Companies covered: BSRMSTEEL
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Sum of the parts: own operations Tk 62.9 (4.5x returns-consistent mid-cycle EV/EBITDA 50% = Tk 61.0, DCF WACC 12.4% g 6% 30% = Tk 52.7, 6.5x own FY27F EPS 20% = Tk 82.9) + BSRM Steels 31.19% at Tk 90.6 less 20% holding discount Tk 28.5 + BSRM Wires and BSRM HK at book Tk 7.7
- Own operations (melting + re-rolling)৳63
- BSRM Steels stake at market, less 20%৳29
- BSRM Wires and BSRM HK at book৳8
- Holdco plus mill: own melting and re-rolling come to Tk 63 a share and the BSRM Steels stake Tk 28 after a 20% discount; base Tk 99, range Tk 45-140. →
- Billet to the associate at thin margins: a third of FY26 revenue (Tk 36.9bn) was billet, sold at about 7% over its cost to make [1 p.54]. →
- The taka is the swing factor: Tk 31.0bn of US$ trade loans [1 p.68] make a 10% weaker taka cost Tk 11.02 of FY27F EPS. →
- EPS dips: Tk 23.54 in FY26 to Tk 19.06 in FY27F, own-operations EPS Tk 16.04 to Tk 12.75. →
| FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 95,720 | 109,136 | 112,250 | 119,644 | 127,363 |
| EBITDA (own operations) | 10,624 | 9,290 | 9,071 | 9,669 | 9,508 |
| Own net profit (ex associates) | 4,469 | 4,789 | 3,807 | 4,194 | 4,106 |
| Share of profit of subsidiary and associates | 1,674 | 2,240 | 1,883 | 2,188 | 2,150 |
| Net profit (separate = consolidated) | 6,142 | 7,029 | 5,690 | 6,382 | 6,256 |
| EPS (Tk) | 20.57 | 23.54 | 19.06 | 21.37 | 20.95 |
| Own-operations EPS (Tk) | 14.97 | 16.04 | 12.75 | 14.05 | 13.75 |
| DPS declared (Tk) | 5.00 | 5.50 | 4.57 | 5.13 | 5.03 |
| P/E at Tk 95.4 | 4.6x | 4.1x | 5.0x | 4.5x | 4.6x |
| P/B at Tk 95.4 | 0.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.4x | 0.4x |
| ROE, group (average equity) | 13% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| Dividend yield at Tk 95.4 | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
A billet-and-rod maker plus a 31% stake in BSRM Steels: fair value range Tk 45-140
Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills Ltd (BSRM Ltd, DSE: BSRMLTD) is the parent of the BSRM steel group, Bangladesh's largest maker of MS deformed bar (rebar). It does two things. It melts imported scrap into billet at two plants in Chattogram with 1,300 kt of capacity, which ran at 100% in FY2026 [1 p.64], and it rolls part of that billet into rebar, angles, channels and square bar in an 800 kt re-rolling mill. The rest of the billet, 505 kt by our estimate, is sold to BSRM Steels Ltd, the listed group company in which BSRM Ltd owns 31.19% [1 p.35]. That stake, Tk 10.6bn at BSRMSTEEL's Tk 90.6 close on 29-Oct-2026 [4], is about 37% of BSRM Ltd's own market value of Tk 28.5bn.
Because a listed holding is a large part of the value, we value BSRM Ltd as a sum of the parts, as our valuation rules require for holding companies: (A) its own melting and re-rolling business on its own (separate) statements, with the associates taken out; (B) the BSRM Steels stake at market price less a 20% holding discount; and (C) BSRM Wires and BSRM Hong Kong at book. Part A comes to Tk 62.9 a share, part B Tk 28.5 and part C Tk 7.7: base fair value Tk 99, with a bear case of Tk 45 and a bull case of Tk 140. The price is inside the range, below the base. The market price implies the own business is worth 5.3x FY27F EBITDA after deducting parts B and C.
The forecast uses the same market drivers as our BSRM Steels report [8] so the two reports agree: weaker rod demand in FY27 (-5% volume), rod prices up about 8% as scrap rises 7% in US$ terms, power cost up 12% after the June 2026 tariff order [16] [17], and a taka that weakens 2% a year. EPS falls from Tk 23.54 to Tk 19.06 in FY27F, then recovers to Tk 21.37 in FY28F. Three things set the answer: the rod-scrap spread, the taka (BSRM Ltd funds its scrap with Tk 31.0bn of US$ trade loans), and BSRM Steels' own profit.
Why the range is wide
- Bear Tk 45: volume -15%, taka -5%, energy +15%, mid-cycle EBITDA margin 7.5%, BSRM Steels bear profit, 30% holding discount.
- Bull Tk 140: volume +2%, flat taka, energy +8%, mid-cycle margin 10.5%, BSRM Steels bull profit, 10% discount.
- Probability-weighted (25/50/25): Tk 95.9.
| BDT mn unless stated | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market and balance-sheet inputs (column B) | |||||
| Share price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk) | 95.40 | — | — | — | — |
| Market cap | 28,485 | — | — | — | — |
| Own net debt at 30-Jun-2026 | 32,209 | — | — | — | — |
| Current account with related companies (at book) | 1,665 | — | — | — | — |
| Other investments at book | 106 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Own operations, 1: mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (50% of part A) | |||||
| Mid-cycle EBITDA margin | 9.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Normalised revenue = FY2028F | 119,644 | — | — | — | — |
| Mid-cycle EBITDA | 10,768 | — | — | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA multiple (returns-consistent) | 4.5x | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value | 48,664 | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value of own operations | 18,226 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Own operations, 2: DCF FCFF (30% of part A) | |||||
| Revenue | 112,250 | 119,644 | 127,363 | 135,005 | 143,105 |
| EBITDA margin | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| EBITDA | 9,071 | 9,669 | 9,508 | 11,115 | 12,879 |
| D&A | 1,566 | 1,568 | 1,571 | 1,571 | 1,571 |
| EBIT | 7,505 | 8,101 | 7,937 | 9,544 | 11,308 |
| WPPF and tax on EBIT | -2,358 | -2,545 | -2,493 | -2,998 | -3,552 |
| NOPAT | 5,147 | 5,556 | 5,444 | 6,545 | 7,756 |
| Capex | -1,600 | -1,650 | -1,700 | -1,571 | -1,571 |
| Change in working capital | 378 | -2,634 | -3,044 | -2,782 | -2,949 |
| FCFF | 5,492 | 2,840 | 2,271 | 3,764 | 4,807 |
| Discount factor (years from 30-Jun-2026) | 0.89 | 0.79 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| PV of FCFF | 4,885 | 2,247 | 1,598 | 2,356 | 2,677 |
| Terminal FCFF = NOPAT FY31 x (1+g) x (1 - g / RONIC) | 3,737 | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value at FY2031F | 58,207 | — | — | — | — |
| PV of terminal value | 32,416 | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value (DCF) | 46,180 | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value share of EV | 70.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value of own operations (DCF) | 15,742 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Own operations, 3: P/E on own FY2027F EPS (20% of part A) | |||||
| P/E multiple applied | 6.5x | — | — | — | — |
| Own-operations FY2027F EPS (Tk) | 12.75 | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value of own operations (P/E) | 24,747 | — | — | — | — |
| Part A: own operations, blended (50/30/20) | 18,785 | — | — | — | — |
| B. BSRM Steels stake (listed) at market | |||||
| BSRMSTEEL price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk) | 90.60 | — | — | — | — |
| 117.25m shares at market | 10,623 | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount | 20.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Part B: BSRM Steels stake after discount | 8,499 | — | — | — | — |
| C. Unlisted holdings at book | |||||
| BSRM Wires (31.76%) at carrying value | 2,158 | — | — | — | — |
| BSRM (Hong Kong) at carrying value | 144 | — | — | — | — |
| Part C: unlisted holdings | 2,302 | — | — | — | — |
| Sum of the parts | |||||
| Equity value (A + B + C) | 29,585 | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value per share (Tk) | 99.1 | — | — | — | — |
| of which own operations (Tk/share) | 62.9 | — | — | — | — |
| of which BSRM Steels stake (Tk/share) | 28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| of which BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (Tk/share) | 7.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations per share: EV/EBITDA leg (Tk) | 61.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations per share: DCF leg (Tk) | 52.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations per share: P/E leg (Tk) | 82.9 | — | — | — | — |
| BSRM Steels stake share of fair value | 28.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: checks and cross-references | |||||
| Memo: stake at our BSRMSTEEL base fair value Tk 110.0, same 20% discount (Tk/share) | 34.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: BSRMLTD shares held by BSRM Steels, look-through (mn shares) | 8.98 | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: circular value inside part B (Tk/share) | 2.30 | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: equity-method book value of BSRM Steels (Tk/share) | 41.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Probability-weighted fair value (25/50/25, Tk) | 95.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Implied by the fair value | |||||
| P/E FY2027F (group EPS) | 5.2x | — | — | — | — |
| P/B (Jun-26 NAV Tk 186.06) | 0.5x | — | — | — | — |
| P/B ex-revaluation reserve | 0.7x | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations: implied EV / FY2027F EBITDA | 5.4x | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations: implied P/E on own FY2027F EPS | 4.9x | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield FY2027F | 4.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Price-implied value of own operations (market cap - part B - part C) | 17,685 | — | — | — | — |
| Price-implied own-operations EV / FY2027F EBITDA | 5.3x | — | — | — | — |
From the Valuation tab of the model.
Data
| Low | High | |
|---|---|---|
| Fair value range (bear–bull) | 45.2 | 140.1 |
| Base | 99.1 | 99.1 |
Two businesses in one: rebar under the Xtreme brand and near-cost billet for BSRM Steels (34% of revenue)
BSRM Ltd buys heavy melting scrap (HMS), mostly imported through Chattogram port and paid for with US$ trade loans, plus sponge iron and ferro-alloys. Induction furnaces at Melting-1 (Nasirabad, 175 kt) and Melting-2 (Mirsarai, 1,125 kt, the former BSRM Steel Mills merged in 2021) turn it into billet [1 p.12]. In FY2026 the plants made 1,305 kt of billet, 100.4% of capacity, against 997 kt (77%) in FY2025, and the re-rolling mill made 773.5 kt of finished products against 694.9 kt [1 p.64].
Revenue was Tk 109.1bn in FY2026 (+14.0%) [1 p.9]. By product [1 p.53]: billet Tk 36.9bn (FY2025 Tk 22.8bn), Xtreme 500W deformed bar Tk 26.4bn including stirrup and bend-cut, MS square bar Tk 20.9bn, angles Tk 16.6bn, ribbed wire Tk 1.7bn and other items Tk 4.6bn. Exports are small (Tk 1.3bn, mostly zinc-ash by-products). The brands belong to the sponsor company H. Akberali & Co., which charges a royalty of Tk 230 a tonne from July 2025 (Tk 118m in FY2026) [1 p.57].
The billet line is the key to the group. BSRM Steels melts about 1.08 mt but rolls about 1.6 mt, so it buys the gap, and BSRM Ltd is its main supplier. We estimate BSRM Ltd sold 505 kt of billet in FY2026 (cost of billet sold Tk 34.5bn divided by the Tk 68,321 a tonne it cost to make), at an average Tk 73,125 a tonne. That is a margin of about 7% over the cost to make, down from about 12% in FY2025 [1 p.54]. So BSRM Ltd earns little on the billet itself; the profit is earned when BSRM Steels rolls and sells the rod, and BSRM Ltd gets 31.19% of that through its share of profit.
Ownership: directors hold 43.89% and sponsors and directors together 47.12%; foreign investors 16.82% and others 36.06% [1 p.43]. The company withdrew Tk 4.0bn from its current account with sister companies in FY2026 (balance Tk 1.66bn) and says it is withdrawing corporate guarantees of Tk 6.85bn given for BSRM Steels' LCs [1 p.63].
What is changing. There is no new melting or rolling capacity in the filings and no capital commitment at 30-Jun-2026 [1 p.64], so growth comes from price, mix and the associates. Three changes are under way: the power tariff rise from June 2026, a move of scrap financing from taka loans to dollar UPAS credit that cut interest by more than half in FY2026, and BSRM Wires' expansion into LRPC, electrodes, ACSR core wire, chain-link fence and fasteners, funded by BSRM Ltd's Tk 2.0bn subscription approved in October 2025. The board also set annual CSR spending at 0.25% of the previous year's revenue, about Tk 270m on FY2026 revenue, which we include in administrative costs.
| Product (BDT mn, net of VAT) | FY2025A | FY2026A |
|---|---|---|
| MS billet (mainly to BSRM Steels) | 22,774 | 36,913 |
| Xtreme 500W deformed bar incl. stirrup and bend-cut | 32,957 | 26,447 |
| MS square bar | 18,761 | 20,911 |
| MS angle | 14,215 | 16,640 |
| Ribbed wire rod | 1,516 | 1,719 |
| Others | 4,751 | 4,649 |
| Head office revenue | 94,973 | 107,278 |
| Capacity (kt) | FY2025A output | FY2026A output | FY2026 use | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS billet | 1,300 | 997 | 1,305 | 100.4% |
| Finished MS products | 800 | 695 | 774 | 96.7% |
| Wires unit | 24 | 16 | 19 | 77.8% |
| FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own rolled-product sales (kt) | 799 | 772 | 733 | 763 | 786 |
| Billet sold to third parties (kt, est.) | 289 | 505 | 480 | 499 | 514 |
| Billet melted (kt) | 997 | 1,305 | 1,257 | 1,307 | 1,346 |
| Melting utilisation | 77% | 100% | 97% | 101% | 104% |
Rebar demand is down to about 4 million tonnes a year; BSRM runs near capacity while rivals idle
Steel demand in Bangladesh follows construction: the Annual Development Programme (roads, bridges, metro rail, power plants) and private housing. The Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association put consumption at about 40 lakh tonnes, against about 70 lakh tonnes before the slowdown, and said the government's share of demand fell from 60% to 20%, as reported by The Daily Star on 11-Oct-2026 [13]. The same report says 7 of 39 mills have shut and others run at 40-60% of capacity, while BSRM runs at about 80% of its group capacity. Industry capacity of about 1.22 crore tonnes is three times demand, as reported by The Daily Star on 3-Sep-2026 [12].
Market share: BigMint put the BSRM group at 25%, AKS at 14%, GPH at 8% and KSRM at 6% in 2024, reported by The Daily Star [14]. BSRM Ltd's own 772 kt of rolled products would be about 19% of a 4.0 mt market, but that figure combines a company number with a single-outlet market estimate and we use it only as context. BSRM is the price setter: in March 2026 its rod sold at about Tk 95,000 a tonne against Tk 91,000-92,500 for KSRM, GPH and AKS [10]. Weak rivals help: GPH Ispat's FY2026 finance cost of Tk 5.5bn almost equalled its operating profit [9 p.10].
Recovery depends on public works. ECNEC approved 12 projects costing Tk 1.69 lakh crore in September 2026, including the Gabtali-Dasherkandi metro line, reported by Prothom Alo [18] and The Daily Star [13]. We assume, as a judgement, that these reach procurement in FY2028-29; in our forecast rolled volume falls 5% in FY27 and rises 4% and 3% after.
How the industry drivers move BSRM Ltd's lines. Demand moves rolled volume and, through BSRM Steels, billet volume; competition moves the rod price premium; scrap and the taka move materials per tonne and the billet price; the power tariff moves energy per tonne; interest rates and Bangladesh Bank's rules on dollar trade credit move finance cost and the FX line. Imports of finished rebar are small because domestic capacity far exceeds demand. Duties and VAT on scrap and rod are set in the June budget each year; we hold them unchanged, and the NBR schedule for FY2027 is a gap in our data.
| Item | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Consumption (BSMA) | ~40 lakh t/yr | Daily Star 11-Oct-2026 |
| Industry capacity | ~1.22 crore t | Daily Star 3-Sep-2026 |
| Mills shut | 7 of 39 | Daily Star 11-Oct-2026 |
| BSRM group share (2024) | 25% | BigMint via Daily Star |
| Govt share of demand | 60% -> 20% | Daily Star 11-Oct-2026 |
| Brand | Tk per tonne |
|---|---|
| BSRM | 95,000 |
| AKS | 92,500 |
| GPH | 92,000 |
| KSRM | 91,000 |
Scrap is 76% of cost of sales and energy 12%: a 15% scrap rise costs Tk 5.86 of FY27F EPS
Per tonne of billet needed for what it sold (billet sold plus rolled tonnes x 1.06), BSRM Ltd spent Tk 56,667 on materials, Tk 8,977 on energy and Tk 8,086 on other conversion in FY2026 (Income statement sheet). Scrap and direct materials were Tk 75.0bn [1 p.54], power Tk 10.6bn, gas Tk 0.8bn and fuel Tk 0.5bn [1 p.55]. Induction melting is power-hungry, so energy is a larger cost here than at BSRM Steels.
Scrap: HMS cost about US$336 a tonne CFR in September-October 2025 and US$360-370 in December 2025 [11]; landed prices reached about US$410 in March 2026 after a freight shock [10]. We assume a 7% rise in US$ terms in FY2027 and flat after, the same as for BSRM Steels. Scrap is priced in dollars, so the taka matters twice: through cost (85% of materials) and through the dollar loans. Rod price: the TCB quoted 60-grade rod at Tk 92,500-94,500 a tonne on 5-Oct-2026, about 10% above a year earlier [13]; we model rolled-product realisation +8% in FY27 to Tk 101,038 a tonne.
Energy: BERC raised the 33 kV industrial tariff from Tk 10.75 to Tk 12.75 a unit from June 2026, reported by The Financial Express [16] and Prothom Alo [17]. We model energy per tonne +12% in FY27, +5% after.
| FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials | 52,157 | 56,667 | 61,664 | 62,713 | 65,054 |
| Energy | 8,313 | 8,977 | 10,054 | 10,556 | 11,084 |
| Other conversion | 13,189 | 8,086 | 8,491 | 8,915 | 9,361 |
| Rolled-product realisation | 91,313 | 93,554 | 101,038 | 103,564 | 106,671 |
| Billet price | 78,727 | 73,125 | 79,551 | 81,510 | 84,798 |
| FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials, % of cost of sales | 69% | 76% | 76% | 75% | 75% |
| Energy, % of cost of sales | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 13% |
| Gross margin | 12% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% |
| Scrap shock \ BDT/US$ | -5% | 0% | +5% | +10% | +15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -15.0% | 30.18 | 24.91 | 19.65 | 14.39 | 9.13 |
| -7.5% | 27.37 | 21.99 | 16.60 | 11.22 | 5.83 |
| base | 24.57 | 19.06 | 13.55 | 8.04 | 2.53 |
| +7.5% | 21.76 | 16.13 | 10.50 | 4.86 | -0.77 |
| +15.0% | 18.96 | 13.20 | 7.44 | 1.68 | -4.07 |
Operating margin ranged 6.1-9.4% over FY2021-26; FY2026 was 7.1%
Revenue has swung with steel prices and the taka: Tk 59.9bn in FY2021, Tk 115.1bn at the FY2023 peak after the devaluation, Tk 82.8bn in FY2024, Tk 95.7bn in FY2025 and Tk 109.1bn in FY2026 [2 p.70] [1 p.9]. Operating margin was 9.1%, 6.1%, 7.1%, 8.1%, 9.4% and 7.1% in FY2021-26; the median of 7.6% plus about 1.5% of revenue in depreciation gives the 9.0% mid-cycle EBITDA margin we use.
In FY2026 gross margin fell to 9.2% from 11.9% as billet, a low-margin product, rose to 34% of revenue and scrap stocks were rebuilt; operating profit fell 13.8% to Tk 7.7bn. Net profit still rose 14.4% to Tk 7.0bn (EPS Tk 23.54) because finance cost fell from Tk 2.5bn to Tk 1.0bn and the share of BSRM Steels' profit rose to Tk 2.2bn [1 p.9]. Associates were 32% of FY2026 net profit.
Normal is not FY2025 or FY2026. FY2025 benefited from de-stocking of finished goods made at lower cost and from a rod price that held up while scrap eased; FY2026 carried a large scrap stock build, a higher billet share and a lower finance cost from dollar credit. We therefore set the mid-cycle margin from the six-year median rather than from either year, and test 7.5% (the FY2022 trough) and 10.5% (near the FY2025 peak) in the bear and bull cases. Group ROE was 7.9% in FY2022, 7.1% in FY2023, 10.0% in FY2024, 13.0% in FY2025 and 13.3% in FY2026; our FY2027-29F base of about 9-10% is in the middle of that range.
| FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 79,783 | 115,061 | 82,796 | 95,720 | 109,136 |
| Gross profit | 6,486 | 10,319 | 9,563 | 11,345 | 10,043 |
| Operating profit | 4,846 | 8,159 | 6,695 | 8,965 | 7,725 |
| Net profit | 3,088 | 2,914 | 4,323 | 6,142 | 7,029 |
| EPS (Tk) | 10.34 | 9.76 | 14.48 | 20.57 | 23.54 |
| Operating margin | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 7% |
| FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE, group (average equity) | — | 7% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| ROE, own operations ex-revaluation (average) | — | — | — | — | 20% | 14% | 14% | 12% |
| BDT mn | 9MFY25A | Q4FY25A | FY2025A | 9MFY26A | Q4FY26A | FY2026A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (consolidated) | 69,376 | 27,262 | 96,638 | 80,878 | 29,070 | 109,948 |
| Gross profit | 8,540 | 2,874 | 11,414 | 7,160 | 2,935 | 10,094 |
| Gross margin | 12.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% |
| Net profit | 4,271 | 1,871 | 6,142 | 4,641 | 2,388 | 7,029 |
| of which share of associates | 1,070 | 545 | 1,614 | 1,347 | 877 | 2,224 |
| EPS (Tk) | 14.31 | 6.27 | 20.57 | 15.54 | 8.00 | 23.54 |
From the Quarterly tab of the model.
BSRM Steels earned Tk 7.2bn in FY2026; BSRM Ltd's 31.19% share was Tk 2.2bn
BSRM Steels Ltd rolls about 1.6 mt a year at Fouzderhat and Mirsarai. Its FY2026 revenue was Tk 129.5bn, net profit Tk 7,153m, EPS Tk 19.03 and NAV Tk 106.36 a share [1 p.35] [7]. BSRM Ltd holds 117,253,590 shares, carried at Tk 12,471m under the equity method (Tk 41.8 per BSRM Ltd share) against Tk 10,623m at market. Our BSRM Steels report values it at Tk 52-144 a share, base Tk 110 [8]; at that base, the stake would add Tk 34.6 a share instead of Tk 28.5. We use the market price, as the listed stake can be priced directly.
In the forecast the share of profit comes straight from the BSRM Steels model: BSRM Steels' profit falls to Tk 5,986m in FY27F and is Tk 6,964m in FY28F (base), so BSRM Ltd's share is Tk 1,867m and Tk 2,172m. Dividends received are 32% of that profit a year later; the FY2026 Tk 6.00 dividend brings in Tk 704m in FY27.
BSRM Wires Ltd (31.76%) makes galvanised wire, electrodes and LRPC. BSRM Ltd subscribed Tk 2.0bn of new shares in FY2026 for new wire and fastener plants [6]; the company lost Tk 67m on revenue of Tk 6.0bn and its NAV is Tk 19.80 a share [1 p.36]. We hold it at book (Tk 2,158m) and its profit at zero until it earns on the new capital. BSRM (Hong Kong), 100% owned, trades steel (FY2026 profit Tk 16m) and is held at book (Tk 144m).
Cross-holding: BSRM Steels owns 28.8m BSRM Ltd shares. Through its 31.19% stake BSRM Ltd thus owns about 9.0m of its own shares indirectly, Tk 2.30 a share of the value inside part B. The holding discount covers this; we do not deduct it again.
| BDT mn | FY2025A | FY2026A |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 103,665 | 129,488 |
| Profit for the year | 5,176 | 7,154 |
| EPS (Tk) | 13.77 | 19.03 |
| Total equity | 34,033 | 39,987 |
| NAV per share (Tk) | 90.52 | 106.36 |
| BSRM Ltd share of profit (31.19%) | 1,614 | 2,231 |
| FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of profit: BSRM Steels (31.19%) | 1,614 | 2,231 | 1,867 | 2,172 | 2,134 |
| Share of profit: BSRM Wires (31.76%) | 0 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Share of profit: BSRM (Hong Kong) (100%) | 59 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Share of profit of subsidiary and associates | 1,674 | 2,240 | 1,883 | 2,188 | 2,150 |
| Associates' share of net profit | 27% | 32% | 33% | 34% | 34% |
| BSRMSTEEL price \ discount | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tk 70 | 98.1 | 95.4 | 92.6 | 89.9 | 87.1 |
| Tk 80 | 102.0 | 98.9 | 95.8 | 92.6 | 89.5 |
| Tk 90.6 | 106.2 | 102.6 | 99.1 | 95.5 | 92.0 |
| Tk 100 | 109.9 | 106.0 | 102.0 | 98.1 | 94.2 |
| Tk 110 | 113.8 | 109.5 | 105.2 | 100.9 | 96.5 |
Net debt Tk 32.2bn, 93% of it US$ trade loans at about 4%
At 30-Jun-2026 BSRM Ltd had short-term loans of Tk 33.5bn, long-term loans of Tk 2.8bn and leases of Tk 0.2bn, against cash of Tk 0.8bn and fixed deposits of Tk 3.5bn: net debt Tk 32.2bn, or 3.5x own EBITDA [1 p.8]. Of the short-term loans, Tk 31.1bn are accepted bills (ABP, US$ UPAS) of US$248.9m [1 p.68]. They explain why interest and charges fell to Tk 1.28bn (3.9% of opening debt) from Tk 3.09bn in FY2025 [1 p.59]: dollar trade credit is cheaper than taka loans at the system's 12.13% lending rate [5]. The price is a currency risk. The taka moved from Tk 124 to Tk 125 a dollar in FY2026; every 1% move is about Tk 310m before tax.
Working capital is large: inventory of Tk 29.2bn (108 days of cost of sales, including Tk 13.6bn of scrap), advances and deposits of Tk 9.7bn and receivables of Tk 5.2bn. Building scrap stock took operating cash flow down to Tk 2.1bn in FY2026 from Tk 15.3bn [1 p.12]. We assume 105 inventory days and interest at 4.5% in FY27 rising to 5.0%, as some funding moves back to taka; net debt falls to Tk 28.2bn by FY29F.
Book value is Tk 186.06 a share, but Tk 15.9bn of it is a revaluation reserve on land and plant, and Tk 14.8bn is the equity-method value of the associates.
| BDT mn | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||||||||
| PPE, right-of-use and intangible assets | — | — | — | 35,467 | 35,593 | 35,627 | 35,709 | 35,838 |
| Capital work-in-progress | — | — | — | 1,764 | 2,173 | 2,173 | 2,173 | 2,173 |
| Investment in BSRM Steels, BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (equity method) | — | — | — | 10,746 | 14,773 | 15,952 | 17,543 | 18,998 |
| Other investments (BMS Steel 18%, Sajida bond) | — | — | — | 218 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Inventories | — | — | — | 24,159 | 29,228 | 29,430 | 31,333 | 33,545 |
| Trade and other receivables | — | — | — | 2,177 | 5,195 | 4,613 | 4,917 | 5,234 |
| Current account with related companies | — | — | — | 5,684 | 1,665 | 1,665 | 1,665 | 1,665 |
| Advances and deposits | — | — | — | 11,032 | 9,738 | 10,230 | 10,892 | 11,661 |
| Short-term investments (FDR) | — | — | — | 373 | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | — | — | — | 2,050 | 779 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Total assets | — | — | — | 93,671 | 102,728 | 104,274 | 108,816 | 113,699 |
| Liabilities | ||||||||
| Long-term loans incl. current portion | — | — | — | 1,831 | 2,812 | 2,341 | 1,841 | 1,341 |
| Short-term loans (balancing item) | — | — | — | 30,866 | 33,493 | 30,971 | 30,762 | 31,166 |
| Lease liabilities | — | — | — | 62 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 |
| Trade payables | — | — | — | 1,456 | 729 | 1,121 | 1,194 | 1,278 |
| Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other | — | — | — | 2,348 | 2,371 | 2,469 | 2,632 | 2,802 |
| Provisions for income tax and WPPF | — | — | — | 1,964 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 |
| Gratuity | — | — | — | 449 | 480 | 480 | 480 | 480 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | — | — | — | 4,894 | 5,060 | 5,060 | 5,060 | 5,060 |
| Total liabilities | — | — | — | 43,870 | 47,173 | 44,671 | 44,197 | 44,355 |
| Equity | ||||||||
| Share capital and premium | — | — | — | 5,043 | 5,043 | 5,043 | 5,043 | 5,043 |
| Revaluation reserve | — | — | — | 15,861 | 15,855 | 15,855 | 15,855 | 15,855 |
| General, fair-value and translation reserves | — | — | — | 431 | 645 | 645 | 645 | 645 |
| Retained earnings | — | — | — | 28,465 | 34,012 | 38,060 | 43,076 | 47,800 |
| Total equity | 40,095 | 41,938 | 44,804 | 49,801 | 55,555 | 59,603 | 64,619 | 69,343 |
| Check: assets - liabilities - equity | — | — | — | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt (loans + leases - cash - FDR) | — | — | — | 30,336 | 32,209 | 28,996 | 28,286 | 28,191 |
| Own-operations equity (equity - equity-accounted investments) | — | — | — | 39,055 | 40,782 | 43,651 | 47,076 | 50,345 |
| NAV per share (Tk) | 134.29 | 140.46 | 150.06 | 166.79 | 186.06 | 199.62 | 216.42 | 232.24 |
From the Balance sheet tab of the model.
| FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net debt / own EBITDA | 2.9x | 3.5x | 3.2x | 2.9x | 3.0x |
| Interest cover (operating profit / interest and charges) | 2.9x | 6.0x | 4.6x | 4.8x | 4.8x |
| Inventory days | 105 | 108 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| BDT mn | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash from operating activities (before interest) | — | — | — | 15,314 | 2,091 | 7,866 | 5,274 | 4,743 |
| of which working-capital change | — | — | — | 6,101 | -5,310 | 378 | -2,634 | -3,044 |
| Capex (PPE, intangibles, CWIP) | — | — | — | -1,415 | -1,875 | -1,600 | -1,650 | -1,700 |
| Dividends received from associates and subsidiary | — | — | — | 384 | 602 | 704 | 597 | 695 |
| Other investing (FDR, BSRM Wires subscription, interest, rent) | — | — | — | 613 | -4,983 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net cash from investing | — | — | — | -418 | -6,257 | -896 | -1,053 | -1,005 |
| Dividends paid | — | — | — | -1,045 | -1,492 | -1,642 | -1,366 | -1,532 |
| Interest paid, net (incl. FX on loans in forecast) | — | — | — | -2,618 | -983 | -2,114 | -2,147 | -2,111 |
| Long-term loans, net | — | — | — | 1,831 | 981 | -471 | -500 | -500 |
| Short-term loans, net | — | — | — | -10,079 | 452 | -2,521 | -209 | 404 |
| Related-company loans and lease payments | — | — | — | -2,143 | 3,937 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net cash from financing | — | — | — | -14,055 | 2,895 | -6,749 | -4,222 | -3,739 |
| Net change in cash | — | — | — | 841 | -1,270 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
| Closing cash | — | — | — | 2,050 | 779 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Check: closing cash - balance sheet cash | — | — | — | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow to equity (CFO + capex + dividends received + interest) | — | — | — | 11,665 | -165 | 4,855 | 2,075 | 1,627 |
From the Cash flow tab of the model.
Earnings quality: 32% of FY2026 profit is the associates' share, and only Tk 0.6bn of it came in as cash
BSRM Ltd's reported profit mixes cash earnings from its mills with the equity-method share of BSRM Steels, BSRM Wires and BSRM Hong Kong. In FY2026 that share was Tk 2,240m of Tk 7,029m net profit, while dividends received from the three were Tk 602m [1 p.12]. The company itself makes this point: under section 22 of the Income Tax Act 2023 it computes distributable profit as net profit less the unrealised associate share plus dividends received, Tk 5,391m, and the 30% minimum dividend on that, Tk 1,617m or Tk 5.42 a share [1 p.64]. The Tk 5.50 declared clears the floor.
Operating cash flow was weak in FY2026: Tk 2.1bn against Tk 15.3bn in FY2025, because inventory rose by Tk 5.1bn (scrap stock up from Tk 8.3bn to Tk 13.6bn) and receivables by Tk 3.0bn [1 p.61]. The cash gap was closed by collecting Tk 4.0bn from sister companies and by Tk 1.4bn of new loans; Tk 5.2bn went into fixed deposits and BSRM Wires shares. FY2025's very strong cash flow was the mirror image: finished-goods stock fell from Tk 9.9bn to Tk 4.6bn. Averaging the two years, cash conversion is close to the profit of the mills.
Two reporting points. First, the separate and consolidated columns are labelled in a different order on the balance sheet and the cash flow statement; we use the column that ties to separate cash of Tk 779m (operating cash flow Tk 2,091m, Tk 7.00 a share, note 43). The DSE notice's Tk 6.49 a share is the consolidated figure. Second, the financial statements were early-adopted under IFRS 18, so FY2025 figures are restated (finance cost Tk 2,514m vs Tk 2,622m before; operating cash flow now excludes interest paid). Our FY2022-24 history uses the pre-IFRS 18 five-year table, so operating profit in those years is not exactly comparable.
Related parties. BSRM Ltd sells most of its billet to BSRM Steels, buys logistics from BSRM Logistics, pays a brand royalty of Tk 230 a tonne to the sponsors' H. Akberali & Co., and lent money to sister companies at about 8.8% interest [1 p.62]. The thin billet margin (about 7% over cost to make) keeps profit out of BSRM Ltd (where shareholders outside the sponsor group own about 53%) and in BSRM Steels, of which BSRM Ltd owns 31.19%, so BSRM Ltd gets back only part of it. We treat this as a governance point, not a line in the base case. The auditor, Hussain Farhad & Co., gave an unmodified opinion [1 p.2].
FY27F EPS Tk 19.06: lower volume, power and the taka offset a better rod price
Revenue is volume x price for two products. Rolled products: 772 kt in FY2026 (our estimate from production of 773.5 kt adjusted for stock build and traded goods), -5% in FY27F and +4% and +3% after, at a realisation +8% in FY27F, +2.5% and +3% after. Billet to third parties follows BSRM Steels' volume and is priced at cost plus, so it moves with BSRM Ltd's cost per tonne. Revenue is Tk 112.2bn in FY27F and Tk 127.4bn in FY29F.
Cost of sales is tonnes melted x (materials + energy + other conversion) plus depreciation. Materials move with scrap in US$ and the taka, energy with the power tariff (+12%), and other conversion +5% (half wages and stores at 7%, half material-like items). Gross margin is 8.9% in FY27F against 9.2% in FY2026; operating margin 6.7%, inside the 6.1-9.4% history.
Below operating profit: interest Tk 1.6bn (4.5% of opening debt), an FX loss of Tk 0.6bn on the US$ loans from the 2% taka crawl, WPPF at 5.4% and tax at 27.5% of own profit (FY2026 27.7%). Own net profit falls to Tk 3.8bn from Tk 4.8bn; with the associates' share of Tk 1.9bn net profit is Tk 5.7bn, EPS Tk 19.06. The dividend payout stays at 24% (FY2024-26), DPS Tk 4.57; the tax-law floor of 30% of distributable profit (which excludes unrealised associate profit) was about Tk 5.42 in FY2026 [1 p.64], so the payout may be higher than we model.
What to check in Q1 FY27 (due mid-November 2026). No Q1 FY27 statement was on DSE on 31-Oct-2026. The model uses FY2026 audited figures and will be updated when the Q1 FY27 statement is filed.
How the scenarios are built. The bear and bull cases move the same drivers as the risk table, by plausible one-in-four sizes, and the BSRM Steels profit in each case is taken from the matching BSRM Steels scenario so the two reports stay consistent. Rolled volume (-15% / +2% in FY27), the rod price (+7.5% / +6%), scrap (+7% / +5%), the taka (-5% / flat), energy (+15% / +8%) and interest (+1pp / -1pp) run through FY27-29; in the DCF the margin then fades to the case's mid-cycle level (7.5% / 10.5%), so the terminal year sits inside the company's own six-year range. The holding discount moves from 20% to 30% / 10%.
| FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 95,720 | 109,136 | 112,250 | 119,644 | 127,363 |
| Gross profit | 11,345 | 10,043 | 9,947 | 10,724 | 10,753 |
| Operating profit | 8,965 | 7,725 | 7,505 | 8,101 | 7,937 |
| EBITDA (own operations) | 10,624 | 9,290 | 9,071 | 9,669 | 9,508 |
| Interest and bank charges | -3,091 | -1,280 | -1,641 | -1,674 | -1,638 |
| FX gain/(loss) on borrowings | -114 | 110 | -619 | -619 | -619 |
| Own net profit (ex associates) | 4,469 | 4,789 | 3,807 | 4,194 | 4,106 |
| Share of profit of subsidiary and associates | 1,674 | 2,240 | 1,883 | 2,188 | 2,150 |
| Net profit (separate = consolidated) | 6,142 | 7,029 | 5,690 | 6,382 | 6,256 |
| EPS (Tk) | 20.57 | 23.54 | 19.06 | 21.37 | 20.95 |
| BDT mn | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (kt) | ||||||||
| Own rolled-product sales (kt) | — | — | 803 | 799 | 772 | 733 | 763 | 786 |
| Billet sold to third parties (kt, est.) | — | — | — | 289 | 505 | 480 | 499 | 514 |
| Total tonnes sold (kt) | — | — | — | 1,088 | 1,277 | 1,213 | 1,261 | 1,299 |
| Billet melted (kt) | — | — | — | 997 | 1,305 | 1,257 | 1,307 | 1,346 |
| Billet requirement for tonnes sold (kt) | — | — | — | 1,124 | 1,324 | 1,257 | 1,307 | 1,346 |
| Melting utilisation | — | — | — | 76.7% | 100.4% | 96.7% | 100.6% | 103.6% |
| Rolling utilisation (sales / 800 kt) | — | — | — | 99.9% | 96.5% | 91.7% | 95.3% | 98.2% |
| Prices (Tk per tonne) | ||||||||
| Rolled products: net realisation (Tk/t) | — | — | — | 91,313 | 93,554 | 101,038 | 103,564 | 106,671 |
| Billet: price (Tk/t) | — | — | — | 78,727 | 73,125 | 79,551 | 81,510 | 84,798 |
| Profit and loss (separate statements) | ||||||||
| Revenue: MS billet | — | — | — | 22,774 | 36,913 | 38,148 | 40,652 | 43,560 |
| Revenue: rolled products and other | — | — | — | 72,946 | 72,224 | 74,102 | 78,992 | 83,803 |
| Revenue | 79,783 | 115,061 | 82,796 | 95,720 | 109,136 | 112,250 | 119,644 | 127,363 |
| Materials per tonne of billet required (scrap, sponge iron, ferro-alloys) | — | — | — | 52,157 | 56,667 | 61,664 | 62,713 | 65,054 |
| Sensitivity cost shock per rolled tonne (0 in the published case) | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — |
| Energy per tonne of billet required (power, gas, fuel; melting + rolling) | — | — | — | 8,313 | 8,977 | 10,054 | 10,556 | 11,084 |
| Other conversion per tonne of billet required (ex-D&A; incl. stock change, procured goods) | — | — | — | 13,189 | 8,086 | 8,491 | 8,915 | 9,361 |
| Cost of sales | 73,297 | 104,742 | 73,234 | 84,376 | 99,093 | 102,303 | 108,920 | 116,610 |
| Gross profit | 6,486 | 10,319 | 9,563 | 11,345 | 10,043 | 9,947 | 10,724 | 10,753 |
| Selling and distribution | 901 | 1,151 | 1,879 | 1,377 | 1,085 | 1,122 | 1,196 | 1,274 |
| Administrative expenses | 803 | 1,065 | 1,029 | 1,036 | 1,240 | 1,339 | 1,446 | 1,562 |
| Other operating income and FX on operations | 63 | 57 | 41 | 32 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Operating profit | 4,846 | 8,159 | 6,695 | 8,965 | 7,725 | 7,505 | 8,101 | 7,937 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | — | — | — | 1,660 | 1,565 | 1,566 | 1,568 | 1,571 |
| EBITDA (own operations) | — | — | — | 10,624 | 9,290 | 9,071 | 9,669 | 9,508 |
| EBITDA per tonne sold (Tk) | — | — | — | 9,764 | 7,276 | 7,479 | 7,665 | 7,318 |
| Other investment income (interest, rent) | — | — | — | 140 | 165 | 160 | 160 | 160 |
| Interest and bank charges | — | — | — | -3,091 | -1,280 | -1,641 | -1,674 | -1,638 |
| Interest from related companies | — | — | — | 610 | 323 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
| Other finance items (FX inside finance cost) | — | — | — | -33 | -42 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FX gain/(loss) on borrowings | — | — | — | -114 | 110 | -619 | -619 | -619 |
| Own profit before WPPF and tax | — | — | — | 6,477 | 7,002 | 5,551 | 6,115 | 5,986 |
| WPPF and welfare fund | — | — | — | -343 | -380 | -300 | -330 | -323 |
| Income tax | — | — | — | -1,666 | -1,832 | -1,444 | -1,591 | -1,557 |
| Own net profit (ex associates) | — | — | — | 4,469 | 4,789 | 3,807 | 4,194 | 4,106 |
| Share of profit: BSRM Steels (31.19%) | — | — | — | 1,614 | 2,231 | 1,867 | 2,172 | 2,134 |
| Share of profit: BSRM Wires (31.76%) | — | — | — | 0 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Share of profit: BSRM (Hong Kong) (100%) | — | — | — | 59 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Share of profit of subsidiary and associates | — | — | — | 1,674 | 2,240 | 1,883 | 2,188 | 2,150 |
| Net profit (separate = consolidated) | 3,088 | 2,914 | 4,323 | 6,142 | 7,029 | 5,690 | 6,382 | 6,256 |
| EPS (Tk) | 10.34 | 9.76 | 14.48 | 20.57 | 23.54 | 19.06 | 21.37 | 20.95 |
| Own-operations EPS (Tk) | — | — | — | 14.97 | 16.04 | 12.75 | 14.05 | 13.75 |
| DPS declared (Tk) | — | — | 3.50 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 4.57 | 5.13 | 5.03 |
From the Income statement tab of the model.
| Driver | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull) | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sensitivity shock: scrap US$/t in FY2027F (level, carried forward) | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sensitivity shock: BDT/US$ in FY2027F (level, carried forward) | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pass-through of a sensitivity cost shock into the rod price (same year) | 60.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Volume and capacity | ||||||||
| Re-rolling capacity, finished MS products (kt) | — | — | — | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 |
| Billet melting capacity (kt) | — | — | — | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,300 |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | -15.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | -15.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet used per tonne of rolled product (t/t) | — | — | — | — | — | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Prices and unit costs | ||||||||
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 7.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - base | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - active | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - base | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - active | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Share of material cost priced in US$ | 85.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 15.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Other conversion cost per tonne melted, growth | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Operating expenses and other income | ||||||||
| Selling and distribution, % of revenue | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Administrative expenses, growth | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Other operating income incl. FX on operations (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Other investment income: bank interest and rent (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 160 | 160 | 160 |
| Associates and subsidiary (equity-accounted in the separate statements) | ||||||||
| Stake in BSRM Steels | 31.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 1,562 | 1,797 | 1,766 |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 5,986 | 6,964 | 6,843 |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 8,640 | 9,866 | 9,694 |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 5,986 | 6,964 | 6,843 |
| BSRM Steels payout (dividend received next year) | — | — | — | — | — | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Share of profit of BSRM Wires (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Share of profit of BSRM (Hong Kong) (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Funding | ||||||||
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - base | — | — | — | — | — | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - active | — | — | — | — | — | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Interest earned on current account with related companies, % of opening balance | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Net US$ liability (BDT mn equivalent) | 30,970 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WPPF, % of own profit before WPPF | — | — | — | — | — | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Effective tax rate on own profit before tax | — | — | — | — | — | 27.5% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Dividend payout on group EPS (declared, paid next year) | — | — | — | — | — | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% |
| Long-term loan repayment (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 471 | 500 | 500 |
| Minimum cash balance (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Capex and working capital | ||||||||
| Capex incl. CWIP (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 1,600 | 1,650 | 1,700 |
| D&A, % of opening fixed assets (PPE, ROU, intangibles) | — | — | — | — | — | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Share of D&A in cost of sales | — | — | — | — | — | 94.8% | 94.8% | 94.8% |
| Inventory days (on cost of sales) | — | — | — | — | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Receivable days (on revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Advances and deposits, % of cost of sales | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Trade payable days (on cost of sales) | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other, % of revenue | — | — | — | — | — | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
From the Assumptions tab of the model.
Data
| FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27F | FY28F | FY29F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Tk bn) | 79.80 | 115.10 | 82.80 | 95.70 | 109.10 | 112.20 | 119.60 | 127.40 |
| Operating margin % | 6.10 | 7.10 | 8.10 | 9.40 | 7.10 | 6.70 | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| Ratio | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | — | 44.2% | -28.0% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| Gross margin | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| Operating margin | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% |
| EBITDA margin (own) | — | — | — | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% |
| Energy, % of cost of sales | — | — | — | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
| Materials, % of cost of sales | — | — | — | 69.5% | 75.7% | 75.8% | 75.3% | 75.1% |
| Billet share of revenue | — | — | — | 23.8% | 33.8% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 34.2% |
| Associates' share of net profit | — | — | — | 27.2% | 31.9% | 33.1% | 34.3% | 34.4% |
| ROE, group (average equity) | — | 7.1% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| ROE, own operations ex-revaluation (average) | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 12.5% |
| ROIC, own operations ex-revaluation | — | — | — | 12.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% |
| Net debt / own EBITDA | — | — | — | 2.9x | 3.5x | 3.2x | 2.9x | 3.0x |
| Interest cover (operating profit / interest and charges) | — | — | — | 2.9x | 6.0x | 4.6x | 4.8x | 4.8x |
| Inventory days | — | — | — | 105 | 108 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Payout (DPS / EPS) | — | — | 24.2% | 24.3% | 23.4% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% |
| P/E at Tk 95.4 | 9.2x | 9.8x | 6.6x | 4.6x | 4.1x | 5.0x | 4.5x | 4.6x |
| P/B at Tk 95.4 | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.4x | 0.4x |
| Dividend yield at Tk 95.4 | — | — | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% |
From the Ratios tab of the model.
Sum of the parts: fair value range Tk 45-140; the own business at a returns-consistent 4.5x EBITDA
Why sum of the parts. The BSRM Steels stake is 29% of our value and is separately listed, so the skill's rule for holdcos applies. We avoid double counting: part A uses the separate statements with the associates' profit removed, and parts B and C value the holdings once.
Part A, own operations (Tk 62.9 a share) blends three legs. (1) Mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (50%): 9.0% EBITDA margin on FY28F revenue of Tk 119.6bn at 4.5x gives EV Tk 48.7bn; less net debt of Tk 32.2bn, plus the Tk 1.7bn current account with sister companies and other investments, equity is Tk 61.0 a share. (2) DCF (30%): free cash flow to the firm for FY27-31F, fading to the mid-cycle margin, at a 12.4% WACC; terminal growth 6% with reinvestment of g / return on new capital (11%, the FY25-26 average own ROIC ex-revaluation), so terminal value is 70% of EV. This gives Tk 52.7. (3) P/E (20%): 6.5x own FY27F EPS of Tk 12.75 gives Tk 82.9.
Reconciling the legs. BSRM Ltd's own return on capital (9.6% in FY2026, 9.4% in FY27F) is below its 12.4% WACC, so growth adds little and a cash-flow-consistent multiple is low. We therefore set the EV/EBITDA multiple from returns, not from BSRM Steels' 5.5x: 4.5x = (1 - g/RONIC) x NOPAT/EBITDA x (1+g)/(WACC - g), the same formula as the DCF terminal value. The remaining gap between the legs is the margin path (DCF uses FY27-29F 7.5-8.1% before fading to 9.0%), not the multiple. FX: the base taka path is -2% a year; the P/E leg includes the resulting FX loss on US$ loans in FY27F EPS, and the EV legs carry it through net debt at the closing rate, so neither double counts it. The P/E leg sits between them. The blend implies 4.9x own FY27F EPS and 5.4x FY27F EBITDA.
Cost of equity 16.2% = 10-year T-bond 9.27% (25-Oct-2026 auction [5]) + beta 0.85 x 7.0% ERP + 1.0% liquidity premium. Raw weekly beta vs DSEX is 0.78 (104 weeks, correlation 0.47) [4]; Blume-adjusted 0.85, above the F15 floor of 0.7. Pre-tax cost of debt 10%, debt weight 45%, the same as for BSRM Steels. Liquidity premium 1.0% because turnover is Tk 9.2m a day, a third of BSRM Steels'.
Part B, BSRM Steels stake (Tk 28.5): 117.25m shares x Tk 90.6 = Tk 10.6bn, less a 20% holding discount. The discount reflects that the block equals about 440 days of BSRMSTEEL turnover, that only about a third of BSRM Steels' profit is paid out, and the cross-holding. Bear 30%, bull 10%. Part C (Tk 7.7): BSRM Wires and BSRM HK at book.
Against own history. At Tk 99 the shares would trade at 5.2x FY27F group EPS and 0.53x book (0.75x ex-revaluation). Year-end P/E was 9.2x FY22, 9.8x FY23, 6.6x FY24, 4.6x FY25 and 4.1x FY26 at today's price. The sustainable group ROE of about 9-10% in FY27-29F sits inside the 7-13% range of FY2022-26.
| BDT mn | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 112,250 | 119,644 | 127,363 | 135,005 | 143,105 |
| EBITDA margin | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% |
| NOPAT | 5,147 | 5,556 | 5,444 | 6,545 | 7,756 |
| Capex | -1,600 | -1,650 | -1,700 | -1,571 | -1,571 |
| Change in working capital | 378 | -2,634 | -3,044 | -2,782 | -2,949 |
| FCFF | 5,492 | 2,840 | 2,271 | 3,764 | 4,807 |
| PV of FCFF | 4,885 | 2,247 | 1,598 | 2,356 | 2,677 |
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate: BB 10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-2026 | 9.3% |
| Raw beta vs DSEX (104 weekly returns) | 0.78 |
| Beta used (Blume-adjusted, floor 0.7) | 0.85 |
| Equity risk premium | 7.0% |
| Liquidity premium | 1.0% |
| Cost of equity | 16.2% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt (marginal) | 10.0% |
| Tax rate | 22.5% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 7.8% |
| Debt weight, D / (D + E) | 45.0% |
| WACC | 12.4% |
| Terminal growth (nominal BDT) | 6.0% |
| Return on new invested capital (terminal) | 11.0% |
From the WACC tab of the model.
| Multiple \ margin | 7.5% | 8.25% | 9.0% | 9.75% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5x | 33.3 | 46.8 | 60.3 | 73.9 | 87.4 |
| 5.0x | 48.3 | 63.3 | 78.4 | 93.4 | 108.4 |
| 5.5x | 63.3 | 79.9 | 96.4 | 112.9 | 129.5 |
| 6.0x | 78.4 | 96.4 | 114.4 | 132.5 | 150.5 |
| 6.5x | 93.4 | 112.9 | 132.5 | 152.0 | 171.5 |
| WACC \ g | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2pp | 109.6 | 113.7 | 119.0 | 126.5 | 139.1 |
| -1pp | 80.2 | 80.2 | 79.8 | 78.4 | 75.6 |
| base | 57.9 | 55.8 | 52.7 | 48.0 | 40.6 |
| +1pp | 40.3 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 27.0 | 18.3 |
| +2pp | 26.2 | 22.6 | 17.8 | 11.5 | 2.8 |
| Case | Fair value (Tk) | FY27F EPS | FY28F EPS | Own ops (Tk/sh) | Stake (Tk/sh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 45.2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 24.9 |
| Base | 99.1 | 19.1 | 21.4 | 62.9 | 28.5 |
| Bull | 140.1 | 27.4 | 29.6 | 100.4 | 32.0 |
A 10% weaker taka is the largest single risk: Tk 11.02 off FY27F EPS
- Taka (FX loss and materials cost). Net US$ liabilities of Tk 31.0bn [1 p.68]: a 10% weaker taka in FY27 costs Tk 11.02 of EPS and Tk 10.3 of fair value.
- Rod price (rolled-product realisation). A 5% lower price for a year, recovered in FY28, costs Tk 8.43 of EPS and Tk 13.2 of value.
- Scrap (materials per tonne). +15% with 60% passed on in the year: EPS -Tk 5.86; value -Tk 1.6 as the rest passes through in FY28.
- Demand (rolled volume). -10% vs base: EPS -Tk 2.53, value -Tk 11.8.
- Energy (energy per tonne). A second tariff rise, +15% more: EPS -Tk 2.72.
- Interest (finance cost). +200bp if UPAS is replaced with taka loans: EPS -Tk 1.68.
- BSRM Steels (part B). A 20% lower BSRMSTEEL price takes Tk 5.7 off fair value; billet sales -20% move value by Tk -5.4.
- Related parties (governance). Billet is sold to a 31%-owned associate at about 7% over cost; Tk 1.66bn is due from sister companies and Tk 6.85bn of guarantees are being withdrawn [1 p.63]. Context, not in the base.
- Opportunity. Rolled volume +5% vs base in FY27 adds Tk 1.26 of EPS and Tk 5.9 of value.
| Driver changed | FY27F EPS (Tk) | Change | Fair value (Tk) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrap US$/t +15% in FY27 (60% passed into rod price, billet cost-plus) | 13.2 | -5.9 | 97.4 | -1.6 |
| BDT 10% weaker vs US$ in FY27 (pass-through on costs; FX loss on Tk 31bn US$ UPAS) | 8.0 | -11.0 | 88.7 | -10.3 |
| Rolled-product volume -10% vs base in FY27 (ADP stalls, share loss) | 16.5 | -2.5 | 87.3 | -11.8 |
| Rod realisation -5% vs base in FY27, recovered in FY28 (price war) | 10.6 | -8.4 | 85.9 | -13.2 |
| Energy cost/t +15% more in FY27 (second power/gas tariff rise) | 16.3 | -2.7 | 93.2 | -5.9 |
| Interest rate +200bp on all borrowings FY27-29 (UPAS repriced to BDT) | 17.4 | -1.7 | 96.9 | -2.2 |
| Billet sales to BSRM Steels -20% vs base in FY27 | 19.4 | 0.3 | 93.7 | -5.4 |
| BSRMSTEEL share price -20% (Tk 72.5) | 19.1 | 0.0 | 93.4 | -5.7 |
| Opportunity: rolled-product volume +5% vs base in FY27 (ECNEC projects restart) | 20.3 | 1.3 | 105.0 | 5.9 |
| Grid | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid A: fair value per share (Tk); rows = BSRMSTEEL price, columns = holding discount 0% / 10% / 20% / 30% / 40% | |||||
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 70 | 98.1 | 95.4 | 92.6 | 89.9 | 87.1 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 80 | 102.0 | 98.9 | 95.8 | 92.6 | 89.5 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 90.6 | 106.2 | 102.6 | 99.1 | 95.5 | 92.0 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 100 | 109.9 | 106.0 | 102.0 | 98.1 | 94.2 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 110 | 113.8 | 109.5 | 105.2 | 100.9 | 96.5 |
| Grid C: own-operations EV/EBITDA leg per share (Tk); rows = EV/EBITDA multiple, columns = mid-cycle margin 7.5% / 8.25% / 9.0% / 9.75% / 10.5% | |||||
| 4.5x | 33.3 | 46.8 | 60.3 | 73.9 | 87.4 |
| 5.0x | 48.3 | 63.3 | 78.4 | 93.4 | 108.4 |
| 5.5x | 63.3 | 79.9 | 96.4 | 112.9 | 129.5 |
| 6.0x | 78.4 | 96.4 | 114.4 | 132.5 | 150.5 |
| 6.5x | 93.4 | 112.9 | 132.5 | 152.0 | 171.5 |
| Grid D: DCF leg per share (Tk); rows = WACC, columns = terminal growth 4% / 5% / 6% / 7% / 8% | |||||
| WACC -2pp | 109.6 | 113.7 | 119.0 | 126.5 | 139.1 |
| WACC -1pp | 80.2 | 80.2 | 79.8 | 78.4 | 75.6 |
| WACC base | 57.9 | 55.8 | 52.7 | 48.0 | 40.6 |
| WACC +1pp | 40.3 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 27.0 | 18.3 |
| WACC +2pp | 26.2 | 22.6 | 17.8 | 11.5 | 2.8 |
| Grid B: FY2027F group EPS (Tk); rows = scrap US$/t shock, columns = BDT/US$ shock -5% / 0 / +5% / +10% / +15% (recalculated model, values) | |||||
| Scrap -15.0% | 30.18 | 24.91 | 19.65 | 14.39 | 9.13 |
| Scrap -7.5% | 27.37 | 21.99 | 16.60 | 11.22 | 5.83 |
| Scrap base | 24.57 | 19.06 | 13.55 | 8.04 | 2.53 |
| Scrap +7.5% | 21.76 | 16.13 | 10.50 | 4.86 | -0.77 |
| Scrap +15.0% | 18.96 | 13.20 | 7.44 | 1.68 | -4.07 |
| Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values): fair value | FY27F EPS | FY28F EPS | own ops Tk/share | stake Tk/share | |||||
| Bear | 45.18 | 5.34 | 6.66 | 12.57 | 24.90 |
| Base | 99.09 | 19.06 | 21.37 | 62.91 | 28.46 |
| Bull | 140.14 | 27.38 | 29.58 | 100.41 | 32.02 |
| Risk table: one driver changed, everything else base (recalculated; values): FY27F EPS | change | fair value | change | |||||
| Scrap US$/t +15% in FY27 (60% passed into rod price, billet cost-plus) | 13.20 | -5.86 | 97.44 | -1.65 | — |
| BDT 10% weaker vs US$ in FY27 (pass-through on costs; FX loss on Tk 31bn US$ UPAS) | 8.04 | -11.02 | 88.74 | -10.35 | — |
| Rolled-product volume -10% vs base in FY27 (ADP stalls, share loss) | 16.53 | -2.53 | 87.28 | -11.81 | — |
| Rod realisation -5% vs base in FY27, recovered in FY28 (price war) | 10.63 | -8.43 | 85.88 | -13.20 | — |
| Energy cost/t +15% more in FY27 (second power/gas tariff rise) | 16.33 | -2.72 | 93.21 | -5.88 | — |
| Interest rate +200bp on all borrowings FY27-29 (UPAS repriced to BDT) | 17.38 | -1.68 | 96.91 | -2.18 | — |
| Billet sales to BSRM Steels -20% vs base in FY27 | 19.38 | 0.32 | 93.71 | -5.37 | — |
| BSRMSTEEL share price -20% (Tk 72.5) | 19.06 | 0.00 | 93.39 | -5.69 | — |
| Opportunity: rolled-product volume +5% vs base in FY27 (ECNEC projects restart) | 20.32 | 1.26 | 104.99 | 5.90 | — |
From the Sensitivity tab of the model.
What to watch: Q1 FY27 results in mid-November and the 15-Nov-2026 record date for the Tk 5.50 dividend
- Q1 FY27 (Jul-Sep 2026) results, due mid-November. Last year Q1 EPS was Tk 4.15; the monsoon quarter is the weakest.
- Dividend: Tk 5.50 cash, record date 15-Nov-2026, AGM 17-Dec-2026 [6] [15].
- Taka and UPAS: any step move in BDT/US$ and any Bangladesh Bank change to UPAS rules.
- BSRM Steels: its Q1 FY27 profit feeds a third of BSRM Ltd's earnings.
- BSRM Wires: start-up of the new plants funded by the Tk 2.0bn investment.
Model update note: this report uses the FY2026 audited statements (to 30-Jun-2026). The model will be updated when the Q1 FY27 statement is filed.
The model
Assumptions
| Driver | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull) | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sensitivity shock: scrap US$/t in FY2027F (level, carried forward) | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sensitivity shock: BDT/US$ in FY2027F (level, carried forward) | 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pass-through of a sensitivity cost shock into the rod price (same year) | 60.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Volume and capacity | ||||||||
| Re-rolling capacity, finished MS products (kt) | — | — | — | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 |
| Billet melting capacity (kt) | — | — | — | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 1,300 |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | -15.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Own rolled-product sales volume growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | -15.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | -5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Billet used per tonne of rolled product (t/t) | — | — | — | — | — | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Prices and unit costs | ||||||||
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 7.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 6.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - base | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - active | — | — | — | — | — | 7.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - base | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| BDT per US$, change - active | — | — | — | — | — | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Share of material cost priced in US$ | 85.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 15.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - base | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - active | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Other conversion cost per tonne melted, growth | — | — | — | — | — | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Operating expenses and other income | ||||||||
| Selling and distribution, % of revenue | — | — | — | — | — | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Administrative expenses, growth | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Other operating income incl. FX on operations (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Other investment income: bank interest and rent (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 160 | 160 | 160 |
| Associates and subsidiary (equity-accounted in the separate statements) | ||||||||
| Stake in BSRM Steels | 31.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 1,562 | 1,797 | 1,766 |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - base | — | — | — | — | — | 5,986 | 6,964 | 6,843 |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 8,640 | 9,866 | 9,694 |
| BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - active | — | — | — | — | — | 5,986 | 6,964 | 6,843 |
| BSRM Steels payout (dividend received next year) | — | — | — | — | — | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Share of profit of BSRM Wires (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Share of profit of BSRM (Hong Kong) (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Funding | ||||||||
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bear | — | — | — | — | — | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - base | — | — | — | — | — | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bull | — | — | — | — | — | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - active | — | — | — | — | — | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Interest earned on current account with related companies, % of opening balance | — | — | — | — | — | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Net US$ liability (BDT mn equivalent) | 30,970 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WPPF, % of own profit before WPPF | — | — | — | — | — | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Effective tax rate on own profit before tax | — | — | — | — | — | 27.5% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Dividend payout on group EPS (declared, paid next year) | — | — | — | — | — | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% |
| Long-term loan repayment (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 471 | 500 | 500 |
| Minimum cash balance (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Capex and working capital | ||||||||
| Capex incl. CWIP (BDT mn) | — | — | — | — | — | 1,600 | 1,650 | 1,700 |
| D&A, % of opening fixed assets (PPE, ROU, intangibles) | — | — | — | — | — | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Share of D&A in cost of sales | — | — | — | — | — | 94.8% | 94.8% | 94.8% |
| Inventory days (on cost of sales) | — | — | — | — | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Receivable days (on revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Advances and deposits, % of cost of sales | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Trade payable days (on cost of sales) | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other, % of revenue | — | — | — | — | — | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
Income statement
| BDT mn | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (kt) | ||||||||
| Own rolled-product sales (kt) | — | — | 803 | 799 | 772 | 733 | 763 | 786 |
| Billet sold to third parties (kt, est.) | — | — | — | 289 | 505 | 480 | 499 | 514 |
| Total tonnes sold (kt) | — | — | — | 1,088 | 1,277 | 1,213 | 1,261 | 1,299 |
| Billet melted (kt) | — | — | — | 997 | 1,305 | 1,257 | 1,307 | 1,346 |
| Billet requirement for tonnes sold (kt) | — | — | — | 1,124 | 1,324 | 1,257 | 1,307 | 1,346 |
| Melting utilisation | — | — | — | 76.7% | 100.4% | 96.7% | 100.6% | 103.6% |
| Rolling utilisation (sales / 800 kt) | — | — | — | 99.9% | 96.5% | 91.7% | 95.3% | 98.2% |
| Prices (Tk per tonne) | ||||||||
| Rolled products: net realisation (Tk/t) | — | — | — | 91,313 | 93,554 | 101,038 | 103,564 | 106,671 |
| Billet: price (Tk/t) | — | — | — | 78,727 | 73,125 | 79,551 | 81,510 | 84,798 |
| Profit and loss (separate statements) | ||||||||
| Revenue: MS billet | — | — | — | 22,774 | 36,913 | 38,148 | 40,652 | 43,560 |
| Revenue: rolled products and other | — | — | — | 72,946 | 72,224 | 74,102 | 78,992 | 83,803 |
| Revenue | 79,783 | 115,061 | 82,796 | 95,720 | 109,136 | 112,250 | 119,644 | 127,363 |
| Materials per tonne of billet required (scrap, sponge iron, ferro-alloys) | — | — | — | 52,157 | 56,667 | 61,664 | 62,713 | 65,054 |
| Sensitivity cost shock per rolled tonne (0 in the published case) | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — |
| Energy per tonne of billet required (power, gas, fuel; melting + rolling) | — | — | — | 8,313 | 8,977 | 10,054 | 10,556 | 11,084 |
| Other conversion per tonne of billet required (ex-D&A; incl. stock change, procured goods) | — | — | — | 13,189 | 8,086 | 8,491 | 8,915 | 9,361 |
| Cost of sales | 73,297 | 104,742 | 73,234 | 84,376 | 99,093 | 102,303 | 108,920 | 116,610 |
| Gross profit | 6,486 | 10,319 | 9,563 | 11,345 | 10,043 | 9,947 | 10,724 | 10,753 |
| Selling and distribution | 901 | 1,151 | 1,879 | 1,377 | 1,085 | 1,122 | 1,196 | 1,274 |
| Administrative expenses | 803 | 1,065 | 1,029 | 1,036 | 1,240 | 1,339 | 1,446 | 1,562 |
| Other operating income and FX on operations | 63 | 57 | 41 | 32 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Operating profit | 4,846 | 8,159 | 6,695 | 8,965 | 7,725 | 7,505 | 8,101 | 7,937 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | — | — | — | 1,660 | 1,565 | 1,566 | 1,568 | 1,571 |
| EBITDA (own operations) | — | — | — | 10,624 | 9,290 | 9,071 | 9,669 | 9,508 |
| EBITDA per tonne sold (Tk) | — | — | — | 9,764 | 7,276 | 7,479 | 7,665 | 7,318 |
| Other investment income (interest, rent) | — | — | — | 140 | 165 | 160 | 160 | 160 |
| Interest and bank charges | — | — | — | -3,091 | -1,280 | -1,641 | -1,674 | -1,638 |
| Interest from related companies | — | — | — | 610 | 323 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
| Other finance items (FX inside finance cost) | — | — | — | -33 | -42 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FX gain/(loss) on borrowings | — | — | — | -114 | 110 | -619 | -619 | -619 |
| Own profit before WPPF and tax | — | — | — | 6,477 | 7,002 | 5,551 | 6,115 | 5,986 |
| WPPF and welfare fund | — | — | — | -343 | -380 | -300 | -330 | -323 |
| Income tax | — | — | — | -1,666 | -1,832 | -1,444 | -1,591 | -1,557 |
| Own net profit (ex associates) | — | — | — | 4,469 | 4,789 | 3,807 | 4,194 | 4,106 |
| Share of profit: BSRM Steels (31.19%) | — | — | — | 1,614 | 2,231 | 1,867 | 2,172 | 2,134 |
| Share of profit: BSRM Wires (31.76%) | — | — | — | 0 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Share of profit: BSRM (Hong Kong) (100%) | — | — | — | 59 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Share of profit of subsidiary and associates | — | — | — | 1,674 | 2,240 | 1,883 | 2,188 | 2,150 |
| Net profit (separate = consolidated) | 3,088 | 2,914 | 4,323 | 6,142 | 7,029 | 5,690 | 6,382 | 6,256 |
| EPS (Tk) | 10.34 | 9.76 | 14.48 | 20.57 | 23.54 | 19.06 | 21.37 | 20.95 |
| Own-operations EPS (Tk) | — | — | — | 14.97 | 16.04 | 12.75 | 14.05 | 13.75 |
| DPS declared (Tk) | — | — | 3.50 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 4.57 | 5.13 | 5.03 |
Balance sheet
| BDT mn | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||||||||
| PPE, right-of-use and intangible assets | — | — | — | 35,467 | 35,593 | 35,627 | 35,709 | 35,838 |
| Capital work-in-progress | — | — | — | 1,764 | 2,173 | 2,173 | 2,173 | 2,173 |
| Investment in BSRM Steels, BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (equity method) | — | — | — | 10,746 | 14,773 | 15,952 | 17,543 | 18,998 |
| Other investments (BMS Steel 18%, Sajida bond) | — | — | — | 218 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Inventories | — | — | — | 24,159 | 29,228 | 29,430 | 31,333 | 33,545 |
| Trade and other receivables | — | — | — | 2,177 | 5,195 | 4,613 | 4,917 | 5,234 |
| Current account with related companies | — | — | — | 5,684 | 1,665 | 1,665 | 1,665 | 1,665 |
| Advances and deposits | — | — | — | 11,032 | 9,738 | 10,230 | 10,892 | 11,661 |
| Short-term investments (FDR) | — | — | — | 373 | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 | 3,478 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | — | — | — | 2,050 | 779 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Total assets | — | — | — | 93,671 | 102,728 | 104,274 | 108,816 | 113,699 |
| Liabilities | ||||||||
| Long-term loans incl. current portion | — | — | — | 1,831 | 2,812 | 2,341 | 1,841 | 1,341 |
| Short-term loans (balancing item) | — | — | — | 30,866 | 33,493 | 30,971 | 30,762 | 31,166 |
| Lease liabilities | — | — | — | 62 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 |
| Trade payables | — | — | — | 1,456 | 729 | 1,121 | 1,194 | 1,278 |
| Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other | — | — | — | 2,348 | 2,371 | 2,469 | 2,632 | 2,802 |
| Provisions for income tax and WPPF | — | — | — | 1,964 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 |
| Gratuity | — | — | — | 449 | 480 | 480 | 480 | 480 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | — | — | — | 4,894 | 5,060 | 5,060 | 5,060 | 5,060 |
| Total liabilities | — | — | — | 43,870 | 47,173 | 44,671 | 44,197 | 44,355 |
| Equity | ||||||||
| Share capital and premium | — | — | — | 5,043 | 5,043 | 5,043 | 5,043 | 5,043 |
| Revaluation reserve | — | — | — | 15,861 | 15,855 | 15,855 | 15,855 | 15,855 |
| General, fair-value and translation reserves | — | — | — | 431 | 645 | 645 | 645 | 645 |
| Retained earnings | — | — | — | 28,465 | 34,012 | 38,060 | 43,076 | 47,800 |
| Total equity | 40,095 | 41,938 | 44,804 | 49,801 | 55,555 | 59,603 | 64,619 | 69,343 |
| Check: assets - liabilities - equity | — | — | — | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt (loans + leases - cash - FDR) | — | — | — | 30,336 | 32,209 | 28,996 | 28,286 | 28,191 |
| Own-operations equity (equity - equity-accounted investments) | — | — | — | 39,055 | 40,782 | 43,651 | 47,076 | 50,345 |
| NAV per share (Tk) | 134.29 | 140.46 | 150.06 | 166.79 | 186.06 | 199.62 | 216.42 | 232.24 |
Cash flow
| BDT mn | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash from operating activities (before interest) | — | — | — | 15,314 | 2,091 | 7,866 | 5,274 | 4,743 |
| of which working-capital change | — | — | — | 6,101 | -5,310 | 378 | -2,634 | -3,044 |
| Capex (PPE, intangibles, CWIP) | — | — | — | -1,415 | -1,875 | -1,600 | -1,650 | -1,700 |
| Dividends received from associates and subsidiary | — | — | — | 384 | 602 | 704 | 597 | 695 |
| Other investing (FDR, BSRM Wires subscription, interest, rent) | — | — | — | 613 | -4,983 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net cash from investing | — | — | — | -418 | -6,257 | -896 | -1,053 | -1,005 |
| Dividends paid | — | — | — | -1,045 | -1,492 | -1,642 | -1,366 | -1,532 |
| Interest paid, net (incl. FX on loans in forecast) | — | — | — | -2,618 | -983 | -2,114 | -2,147 | -2,111 |
| Long-term loans, net | — | — | — | 1,831 | 981 | -471 | -500 | -500 |
| Short-term loans, net | — | — | — | -10,079 | 452 | -2,521 | -209 | 404 |
| Related-company loans and lease payments | — | — | — | -2,143 | 3,937 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net cash from financing | — | — | — | -14,055 | 2,895 | -6,749 | -4,222 | -3,739 |
| Net change in cash | — | — | — | 841 | -1,270 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
| Closing cash | — | — | — | 2,050 | 779 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Check: closing cash - balance sheet cash | — | — | — | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow to equity (CFO + capex + dividends received + interest) | — | — | — | 11,665 | -165 | 4,855 | 2,075 | 1,627 |
Quarterly
| BDT mn | 9MFY25A | Q4FY25A | FY2025A | 9MFY26A | Q4FY26A | FY2026A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (consolidated) | 69,376 | 27,262 | 96,638 | 80,878 | 29,070 | 109,948 |
| Gross profit | 8,540 | 2,874 | 11,414 | 7,160 | 2,935 | 10,094 |
| Gross margin | 12.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% |
| Net profit | 4,271 | 1,871 | 6,142 | 4,641 | 2,388 | 7,029 |
| of which share of associates | 1,070 | 545 | 1,614 | 1,347 | 877 | 2,224 |
| EPS (Tk) | 14.31 | 6.27 | 20.57 | 15.54 | 8.00 | 23.54 |
Ratios
| Ratio | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | — | 44.2% | -28.0% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| Gross margin | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| Operating margin | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% |
| EBITDA margin (own) | — | — | — | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% |
| Energy, % of cost of sales | — | — | — | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
| Materials, % of cost of sales | — | — | — | 69.5% | 75.7% | 75.8% | 75.3% | 75.1% |
| Billet share of revenue | — | — | — | 23.8% | 33.8% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 34.2% |
| Associates' share of net profit | — | — | — | 27.2% | 31.9% | 33.1% | 34.3% | 34.4% |
| ROE, group (average equity) | — | 7.1% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| ROE, own operations ex-revaluation (average) | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 12.5% |
| ROIC, own operations ex-revaluation | — | — | — | 12.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% |
| Net debt / own EBITDA | — | — | — | 2.9x | 3.5x | 3.2x | 2.9x | 3.0x |
| Interest cover (operating profit / interest and charges) | — | — | — | 2.9x | 6.0x | 4.6x | 4.8x | 4.8x |
| Inventory days | — | — | — | 105 | 108 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Payout (DPS / EPS) | — | — | 24.2% | 24.3% | 23.4% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% |
| P/E at Tk 95.4 | 9.2x | 9.8x | 6.6x | 4.6x | 4.1x | 5.0x | 4.5x | 4.6x |
| P/B at Tk 95.4 | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.4x | 0.4x |
| Dividend yield at Tk 95.4 | — | — | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% |
Valuation
| BDT mn unless stated | FY2027F | FY2028F | FY2029F | FY2030F | FY2031F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market and balance-sheet inputs (column B) | |||||
| Share price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk) | 95.40 | — | — | — | — |
| Market cap | 28,485 | — | — | — | — |
| Own net debt at 30-Jun-2026 | 32,209 | — | — | — | — |
| Current account with related companies (at book) | 1,665 | — | — | — | — |
| Other investments at book | 106 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Own operations, 1: mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (50% of part A) | |||||
| Mid-cycle EBITDA margin | 9.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Normalised revenue = FY2028F | 119,644 | — | — | — | — |
| Mid-cycle EBITDA | 10,768 | — | — | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA multiple (returns-consistent) | 4.5x | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value | 48,664 | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value of own operations | 18,226 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Own operations, 2: DCF FCFF (30% of part A) | |||||
| Revenue | 112,250 | 119,644 | 127,363 | 135,005 | 143,105 |
| EBITDA margin | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| EBITDA | 9,071 | 9,669 | 9,508 | 11,115 | 12,879 |
| D&A | 1,566 | 1,568 | 1,571 | 1,571 | 1,571 |
| EBIT | 7,505 | 8,101 | 7,937 | 9,544 | 11,308 |
| WPPF and tax on EBIT | -2,358 | -2,545 | -2,493 | -2,998 | -3,552 |
| NOPAT | 5,147 | 5,556 | 5,444 | 6,545 | 7,756 |
| Capex | -1,600 | -1,650 | -1,700 | -1,571 | -1,571 |
| Change in working capital | 378 | -2,634 | -3,044 | -2,782 | -2,949 |
| FCFF | 5,492 | 2,840 | 2,271 | 3,764 | 4,807 |
| Discount factor (years from 30-Jun-2026) | 0.89 | 0.79 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| PV of FCFF | 4,885 | 2,247 | 1,598 | 2,356 | 2,677 |
| Terminal FCFF = NOPAT FY31 x (1+g) x (1 - g / RONIC) | 3,737 | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value at FY2031F | 58,207 | — | — | — | — |
| PV of terminal value | 32,416 | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value (DCF) | 46,180 | — | — | — | — |
| Terminal value share of EV | 70.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value of own operations (DCF) | 15,742 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Own operations, 3: P/E on own FY2027F EPS (20% of part A) | |||||
| P/E multiple applied | 6.5x | — | — | — | — |
| Own-operations FY2027F EPS (Tk) | 12.75 | — | — | — | — |
| Equity value of own operations (P/E) | 24,747 | — | — | — | — |
| Part A: own operations, blended (50/30/20) | 18,785 | — | — | — | — |
| B. BSRM Steels stake (listed) at market | |||||
| BSRMSTEEL price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk) | 90.60 | — | — | — | — |
| 117.25m shares at market | 10,623 | — | — | — | — |
| Holding discount | 20.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Part B: BSRM Steels stake after discount | 8,499 | — | — | — | — |
| C. Unlisted holdings at book | |||||
| BSRM Wires (31.76%) at carrying value | 2,158 | — | — | — | — |
| BSRM (Hong Kong) at carrying value | 144 | — | — | — | — |
| Part C: unlisted holdings | 2,302 | — | — | — | — |
| Sum of the parts | |||||
| Equity value (A + B + C) | 29,585 | — | — | — | — |
| Fair value per share (Tk) | 99.1 | — | — | — | — |
| of which own operations (Tk/share) | 62.9 | — | — | — | — |
| of which BSRM Steels stake (Tk/share) | 28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| of which BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (Tk/share) | 7.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations per share: EV/EBITDA leg (Tk) | 61.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations per share: DCF leg (Tk) | 52.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations per share: P/E leg (Tk) | 82.9 | — | — | — | — |
| BSRM Steels stake share of fair value | 28.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: checks and cross-references | |||||
| Memo: stake at our BSRMSTEEL base fair value Tk 110.0, same 20% discount (Tk/share) | 34.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: BSRMLTD shares held by BSRM Steels, look-through (mn shares) | 8.98 | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: circular value inside part B (Tk/share) | 2.30 | — | — | — | — |
| Memo: equity-method book value of BSRM Steels (Tk/share) | 41.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Probability-weighted fair value (25/50/25, Tk) | 95.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Implied by the fair value | |||||
| P/E FY2027F (group EPS) | 5.2x | — | — | — | — |
| P/B (Jun-26 NAV Tk 186.06) | 0.5x | — | — | — | — |
| P/B ex-revaluation reserve | 0.7x | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations: implied EV / FY2027F EBITDA | 5.4x | — | — | — | — |
| Own operations: implied P/E on own FY2027F EPS | 4.9x | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield FY2027F | 4.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Price-implied value of own operations (market cap - part B - part C) | 17,685 | — | — | — | — |
| Price-implied own-operations EV / FY2027F EBITDA | 5.3x | — | — | — | — |
WACC
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Risk-free rate: BB 10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-2026 | 9.3% |
| Raw beta vs DSEX (104 weekly returns) | 0.78 |
| Beta used (Blume-adjusted, floor 0.7) | 0.85 |
| Equity risk premium | 7.0% |
| Liquidity premium | 1.0% |
| Cost of equity | 16.2% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt (marginal) | 10.0% |
| Tax rate | 22.5% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 7.8% |
| Debt weight, D / (D + E) | 45.0% |
| WACC | 12.4% |
| Terminal growth (nominal BDT) | 6.0% |
| Return on new invested capital (terminal) | 11.0% |
Sensitivity
| Grid | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid A: fair value per share (Tk); rows = BSRMSTEEL price, columns = holding discount 0% / 10% / 20% / 30% / 40% | |||||
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 70 | 98.1 | 95.4 | 92.6 | 89.9 | 87.1 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 80 | 102.0 | 98.9 | 95.8 | 92.6 | 89.5 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 90.6 | 106.2 | 102.6 | 99.1 | 95.5 | 92.0 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 100 | 109.9 | 106.0 | 102.0 | 98.1 | 94.2 |
| BSRMSTEEL Tk 110 | 113.8 | 109.5 | 105.2 | 100.9 | 96.5 |
| Grid C: own-operations EV/EBITDA leg per share (Tk); rows = EV/EBITDA multiple, columns = mid-cycle margin 7.5% / 8.25% / 9.0% / 9.75% / 10.5% | |||||
| 4.5x | 33.3 | 46.8 | 60.3 | 73.9 | 87.4 |
| 5.0x | 48.3 | 63.3 | 78.4 | 93.4 | 108.4 |
| 5.5x | 63.3 | 79.9 | 96.4 | 112.9 | 129.5 |
| 6.0x | 78.4 | 96.4 | 114.4 | 132.5 | 150.5 |
| 6.5x | 93.4 | 112.9 | 132.5 | 152.0 | 171.5 |
| Grid D: DCF leg per share (Tk); rows = WACC, columns = terminal growth 4% / 5% / 6% / 7% / 8% | |||||
| WACC -2pp | 109.6 | 113.7 | 119.0 | 126.5 | 139.1 |
| WACC -1pp | 80.2 | 80.2 | 79.8 | 78.4 | 75.6 |
| WACC base | 57.9 | 55.8 | 52.7 | 48.0 | 40.6 |
| WACC +1pp | 40.3 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 27.0 | 18.3 |
| WACC +2pp | 26.2 | 22.6 | 17.8 | 11.5 | 2.8 |
| Grid B: FY2027F group EPS (Tk); rows = scrap US$/t shock, columns = BDT/US$ shock -5% / 0 / +5% / +10% / +15% (recalculated model, values) | |||||
| Scrap -15.0% | 30.18 | 24.91 | 19.65 | 14.39 | 9.13 |
| Scrap -7.5% | 27.37 | 21.99 | 16.60 | 11.22 | 5.83 |
| Scrap base | 24.57 | 19.06 | 13.55 | 8.04 | 2.53 |
| Scrap +7.5% | 21.76 | 16.13 | 10.50 | 4.86 | -0.77 |
| Scrap +15.0% | 18.96 | 13.20 | 7.44 | 1.68 | -4.07 |
| Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values): fair value | FY27F EPS | FY28F EPS | own ops Tk/share | stake Tk/share | |||||
| Bear | 45.18 | 5.34 | 6.66 | 12.57 | 24.90 |
| Base | 99.09 | 19.06 | 21.37 | 62.91 | 28.46 |
| Bull | 140.14 | 27.38 | 29.58 | 100.41 | 32.02 |
| Risk table: one driver changed, everything else base (recalculated; values): FY27F EPS | change | fair value | change | |||||
| Scrap US$/t +15% in FY27 (60% passed into rod price, billet cost-plus) | 13.20 | -5.86 | 97.44 | -1.65 | — |
| BDT 10% weaker vs US$ in FY27 (pass-through on costs; FX loss on Tk 31bn US$ UPAS) | 8.04 | -11.02 | 88.74 | -10.35 | — |
| Rolled-product volume -10% vs base in FY27 (ADP stalls, share loss) | 16.53 | -2.53 | 87.28 | -11.81 | — |
| Rod realisation -5% vs base in FY27, recovered in FY28 (price war) | 10.63 | -8.43 | 85.88 | -13.20 | — |
| Energy cost/t +15% more in FY27 (second power/gas tariff rise) | 16.33 | -2.72 | 93.21 | -5.88 | — |
| Interest rate +200bp on all borrowings FY27-29 (UPAS repriced to BDT) | 17.38 | -1.68 | 96.91 | -2.18 | — |
| Billet sales to BSRM Steels -20% vs base in FY27 | 19.38 | 0.32 | 93.71 | -5.37 | — |
| BSRMSTEEL share price -20% (Tk 72.5) | 19.06 | 0.00 | 93.39 | -5.69 | — |
| Opportunity: rolled-product volume +5% vs base in FY27 (ECNEC projects restart) | 20.32 | 1.26 | 104.99 | 5.90 | — |
Peers
| Metric | BSRMLTD | BSRMSTEEL | GPHISPAT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price 29-Oct-2026 (Tk) | 95.40 | 90.60 | 15.30 |
| EPS FY2026 (Tk) | 23.54 | 19.03 | 0.07 |
| P/E | 4.1x | 4.8x | 218.6x |
| NAV per share (Tk) | 186.06 | 106.36 | 51.81 |
| P/B | 0.5x | 0.9x | 0.3x |
| DPS FY2026 (Tk) | 5.50 | 6.00 | — |
FAQ
- What is BSRM Ltd's fair value range?
- Tk 45-140 a share, base Tk 99: own operations Tk 62.9, the BSRM Steels stake Tk 28.5 after a 20% discount, BSRM Wires and BSRM HK Tk 7.7. The price on 29-Oct-2026 was Tk 95.4.
- How are BSRM Ltd and BSRM Steels related?
- BSRM Ltd owns 31.19% of BSRM Steels and sells it billet (Tk 36.9bn in FY2026); BSRM Steels owns 28.8m BSRM Ltd shares. Both are BSRM group companies.
- Why does FY27 EPS fall?
- Lower volume, higher power cost, an FX loss on the US$ trade loans and a lower BSRM Steels profit take EPS to Tk 19.06 from Tk 23.54.
- Why sum of the parts?
- The listed BSRM Steels stake is 29% of value and has its own market price, so it is valued separately from the mills.
Sources
- Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills Ltd, audited consolidated and separate financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2026 (Hussain Farhad & Co., 14-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- BSRM Ltd Integrated Annual Report 2024-25 (FY2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- BSRM Ltd un-audited consolidated statements, 9 months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro market data: DSE daily and weekly bars for BSRMLTD, BSRMSTEEL and DSEX to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Bangladesh Bank treasury auction page (10-year cut-off 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026) and Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026 Table-102 (lending rate 12.13%) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- DSE news archive for BSRMLTD, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, quarterly results, BSRM Wires investment, CRISL rating) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- BSRM Steels Ltd audited financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro, BSRM Steels initiation and model (bsrmsteel-initiation-2026-10-30): volume, price, scrap, FX and energy drivers and scenario profits · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- GPH Ispat Ltd audited financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Rod prices jump Tk10,000 per tonne in 10 days, cement up Tk25 per bag', 12 Mar 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Daily Star, 'Rod price recovers as demand, scrap costs climb', 23 Jan 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Daily Star, 'Steelmakers squeezed by higher costs, weak demand', 3 Sep 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Daily Star, 'Steelmakers pin hopes on revival of govt projects', 11 Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Daily Star, 'Four steelmakers control 53% of the market: study' (BigMint), 19 May 2024 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Business Standard, 'Two BSRM listed firms post record Tk23,943cr revenue in FY26', 14 Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- The Financial Express, 'Electricity prices hiked across the board', 4 Jun 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Prothom Alo English, 'Power tariff rises by 16.68pc from June', 3 Jun 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- Prothom Alo English, 'ECNEC approves Gabtali-Dasherkandi metro rail project, 11 others worth Tk 1.69 trillion', 16 Sep 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
- AnalystBro model for BSRMLTD (model.xlsx, the workbook below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
Disclaimer
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