Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills valuation report: fair value BDT 45.2–140 (Oct 2026)

BSRM Ltd fair value range Tk 45-140: a billet and rod maker plus a 31% BSRM Steels stake, with the taka as the swing factor

Fair value range Tk 45-140 by sum of the parts; price Tk 95.4 is inside it. FY27F EPS falls to Tk 19.06 from Tk 23.54 as power, the taka and a weaker BSRM Steels bite; the US$ trade loans are the swing factor.

Company · Initiation · 29 Oct 2026 · FY2026 annual (to 30-Jun-2026) + 9M FY2026 · By AnalystBro Team · 20 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Companies covered: BSRMSTEEL

Fair value range
৳45–140
Base ৳99 · price in the lower half of the range · probability-weighted ৳96
Price ৳95.40
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: High
Bear ৳45Base ৳99Bull ৳140Price ৳95.40

Sum of the parts: own operations Tk 62.9 (4.5x returns-consistent mid-cycle EV/EBITDA 50% = Tk 61.0, DCF WACC 12.4% g 6% 30% = Tk 52.7, 6.5x own FY27F EPS 20% = Tk 82.9) + BSRM Steels 31.19% at Tk 90.6 less 20% holding discount Tk 28.5 + BSRM Wires and BSRM HK at book Tk 7.7

  • Own operations (melting + re-rolling)৳63
  • BSRM Steels stake at market, less 20%৳29
  • BSRM Wires and BSRM HK at book৳8
Price (29-Oct-2026)Tk 95.4
52-week rangeTk 71.5 - 115.0
Market capTk 28.5bn (US$ 228m at Tk 125)
Shares298.58m
Sponsors / directors47.12% (foreign 16.82%, others 36.06%)
ADTV (60 sessions)Tk 9.2m (~94,000 shares)
P/E FY26 / FY27F4.1x / 5.0x
P/B (Jun-26 NAV Tk 186.06)0.51x
Dividend FY26 (yield)Tk 5.50 cash (5.8%)
Own net debt / own EBITDA FY263.5x
Fiscal year endJune
CapacityBillet 1,300 kt (100% used FY26); re-rolling 800 kt (97%)
Listed holdingBSRM Steels 31.19% (117.25m shares, Tk 10.6bn at market)
Other holdingsBSRM Wires 31.76% (book Tk 2.16bn); BSRM HK 100%
Credit ratingCRISL AAA / ST-1, stable (Nov-2025)
Latest period usedFY2026 audited (to 30-Jun-2026)
Next resultsQ1 FY27 (to 30-Sep-2026), due mid-Nov-2026
Estimates
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Revenue95,720109,136112,250119,644127,363
EBITDA (own operations)10,6249,2909,0719,6699,508
Own net profit (ex associates)4,4694,7893,8074,1944,106
Share of profit of subsidiary and associates1,6742,2401,8832,1882,150
Net profit (separate = consolidated)6,1427,0295,6906,3826,256
EPS (Tk)20.5723.5419.0621.3720.95
Own-operations EPS (Tk)14.9716.0412.7514.0513.75
DPS declared (Tk)5.005.504.575.135.03
P/E at Tk 95.44.6x4.1x5.0x4.5x4.6x
P/B at Tk 95.40.6x0.5x0.5x0.4x0.4x
ROE, group (average equity)13%13%10%10%9%
Dividend yield at Tk 95.45%6%5%5%5%

A billet-and-rod maker plus a 31% stake in BSRM Steels: fair value range Tk 45-140

Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills Ltd (BSRM Ltd, DSE: BSRMLTD) is the parent of the BSRM steel group, Bangladesh's largest maker of MS deformed bar (rebar). It does two things. It melts imported scrap into billet at two plants in Chattogram with 1,300 kt of capacity, which ran at 100% in FY2026 [1 p.64], and it rolls part of that billet into rebar, angles, channels and square bar in an 800 kt re-rolling mill. The rest of the billet, 505 kt by our estimate, is sold to BSRM Steels Ltd, the listed group company in which BSRM Ltd owns 31.19% [1 p.35]. That stake, Tk 10.6bn at BSRMSTEEL's Tk 90.6 close on 29-Oct-2026 [4], is about 37% of BSRM Ltd's own market value of Tk 28.5bn.

Because a listed holding is a large part of the value, we value BSRM Ltd as a sum of the parts, as our valuation rules require for holding companies: (A) its own melting and re-rolling business on its own (separate) statements, with the associates taken out; (B) the BSRM Steels stake at market price less a 20% holding discount; and (C) BSRM Wires and BSRM Hong Kong at book. Part A comes to Tk 62.9 a share, part B Tk 28.5 and part C Tk 7.7: base fair value Tk 99, with a bear case of Tk 45 and a bull case of Tk 140. The price is inside the range, below the base. The market price implies the own business is worth 5.3x FY27F EBITDA after deducting parts B and C.

The forecast uses the same market drivers as our BSRM Steels report [8] so the two reports agree: weaker rod demand in FY27 (-5% volume), rod prices up about 8% as scrap rises 7% in US$ terms, power cost up 12% after the June 2026 tariff order [16] [17], and a taka that weakens 2% a year. EPS falls from Tk 23.54 to Tk 19.06 in FY27F, then recovers to Tk 21.37 in FY28F. Three things set the answer: the rod-scrap spread, the taka (BSRM Ltd funds its scrap with Tk 31.0bn of US$ trade loans), and BSRM Steels' own profit.

Why the range is wide

  • Bear Tk 45: volume -15%, taka -5%, energy +15%, mid-cycle EBITDA margin 7.5%, BSRM Steels bear profit, 30% holding discount.
  • Bull Tk 140: volume +2%, flat taka, energy +8%, mid-cycle margin 10.5%, BSRM Steels bull profit, 10% discount.
  • Probability-weighted (25/50/25): Tk 95.9.
Exhibit 1Sum of the parts: fair value range Tk 45-140, own operations about 63% of base value
BDT mn unless statedFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Market and balance-sheet inputs (column B)
Share price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk)95.40————
Market cap28,485————
Own net debt at 30-Jun-202632,209————
Current account with related companies (at book)1,665————
Other investments at book106————
A. Own operations, 1: mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (50% of part A)
Mid-cycle EBITDA margin9.0%————
Normalised revenue = FY2028F119,644————
Mid-cycle EBITDA10,768————
EV/EBITDA multiple (returns-consistent)4.5x————
Enterprise value48,664————
Equity value of own operations18,226————
A. Own operations, 2: DCF FCFF (30% of part A)
Revenue112,250119,644127,363135,005143,105
EBITDA margin8.1%8.1%7.5%8.2%9.0%
EBITDA9,0719,6699,50811,11512,879
D&A1,5661,5681,5711,5711,571
EBIT7,5058,1017,9379,54411,308
WPPF and tax on EBIT-2,358-2,545-2,493-2,998-3,552
NOPAT5,1475,5565,4446,5457,756
Capex-1,600-1,650-1,700-1,571-1,571
Change in working capital378-2,634-3,044-2,782-2,949
FCFF5,4922,8402,2713,7644,807
Discount factor (years from 30-Jun-2026)0.890.790.700.630.56
PV of FCFF4,8852,2471,5982,3562,677
Terminal FCFF = NOPAT FY31 x (1+g) x (1 - g / RONIC)3,737————
Terminal value at FY2031F58,207————
PV of terminal value32,416————
Enterprise value (DCF)46,180————
Terminal value share of EV70.2%————
Equity value of own operations (DCF)15,742————
A. Own operations, 3: P/E on own FY2027F EPS (20% of part A)
P/E multiple applied6.5x————
Own-operations FY2027F EPS (Tk)12.75————
Equity value of own operations (P/E)24,747————
Part A: own operations, blended (50/30/20)18,785————
B. BSRM Steels stake (listed) at market
BSRMSTEEL price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk)90.60————
117.25m shares at market10,623————
Holding discount20.0%————
Part B: BSRM Steels stake after discount8,499————
C. Unlisted holdings at book
BSRM Wires (31.76%) at carrying value2,158————
BSRM (Hong Kong) at carrying value144————
Part C: unlisted holdings2,302————
Sum of the parts
Equity value (A + B + C)29,585————
Fair value per share (Tk)99.1————
of which own operations (Tk/share)62.9————
of which BSRM Steels stake (Tk/share)28.5————
of which BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (Tk/share)7.7————
Own operations per share: EV/EBITDA leg (Tk)61.0————
Own operations per share: DCF leg (Tk)52.7————
Own operations per share: P/E leg (Tk)82.9————
BSRM Steels stake share of fair value28.7%————
Memo: checks and cross-references
Memo: stake at our BSRMSTEEL base fair value Tk 110.0, same 20% discount (Tk/share)34.6————
Memo: BSRMLTD shares held by BSRM Steels, look-through (mn shares)8.98————
Memo: circular value inside part B (Tk/share)2.30————
Memo: equity-method book value of BSRM Steels (Tk/share)41.8————
Probability-weighted fair value (25/50/25, Tk)95.9————
Implied by the fair value
P/E FY2027F (group EPS)5.2x————
P/B (Jun-26 NAV Tk 186.06)0.5x————
P/B ex-revaluation reserve0.7x————
Own operations: implied EV / FY2027F EBITDA5.4x————
Own operations: implied P/E on own FY2027F EPS4.9x————
Dividend yield FY2027F4.6%————
Price-implied value of own operations (market cap - part B - part C)17,685————
Price-implied own-operations EV / FY2027F EBITDA5.3x————

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: Valuation sheet [19]
Exhibit 2Fair value range Tk 45-140 by scenario; price Tk 95.4
25.050.075.0100125150Fair value range (bear–bull)45.2140Base99.199.1Price 95.4
Data
LowHigh
Fair value range (bear–bull)45.2140.1
Base99.199.1
Source: Sensitivity sheet [19]

Two businesses in one: rebar under the Xtreme brand and near-cost billet for BSRM Steels (34% of revenue)

BSRM Ltd buys heavy melting scrap (HMS), mostly imported through Chattogram port and paid for with US$ trade loans, plus sponge iron and ferro-alloys. Induction furnaces at Melting-1 (Nasirabad, 175 kt) and Melting-2 (Mirsarai, 1,125 kt, the former BSRM Steel Mills merged in 2021) turn it into billet [1 p.12]. In FY2026 the plants made 1,305 kt of billet, 100.4% of capacity, against 997 kt (77%) in FY2025, and the re-rolling mill made 773.5 kt of finished products against 694.9 kt [1 p.64].

Revenue was Tk 109.1bn in FY2026 (+14.0%) [1 p.9]. By product [1 p.53]: billet Tk 36.9bn (FY2025 Tk 22.8bn), Xtreme 500W deformed bar Tk 26.4bn including stirrup and bend-cut, MS square bar Tk 20.9bn, angles Tk 16.6bn, ribbed wire Tk 1.7bn and other items Tk 4.6bn. Exports are small (Tk 1.3bn, mostly zinc-ash by-products). The brands belong to the sponsor company H. Akberali & Co., which charges a royalty of Tk 230 a tonne from July 2025 (Tk 118m in FY2026) [1 p.57].

The billet line is the key to the group. BSRM Steels melts about 1.08 mt but rolls about 1.6 mt, so it buys the gap, and BSRM Ltd is its main supplier. We estimate BSRM Ltd sold 505 kt of billet in FY2026 (cost of billet sold Tk 34.5bn divided by the Tk 68,321 a tonne it cost to make), at an average Tk 73,125 a tonne. That is a margin of about 7% over the cost to make, down from about 12% in FY2025 [1 p.54]. So BSRM Ltd earns little on the billet itself; the profit is earned when BSRM Steels rolls and sells the rod, and BSRM Ltd gets 31.19% of that through its share of profit.

Ownership: directors hold 43.89% and sponsors and directors together 47.12%; foreign investors 16.82% and others 36.06% [1 p.43]. The company withdrew Tk 4.0bn from its current account with sister companies in FY2026 (balance Tk 1.66bn) and says it is withdrawing corporate guarantees of Tk 6.85bn given for BSRM Steels' LCs [1 p.63].

What is changing. There is no new melting or rolling capacity in the filings and no capital commitment at 30-Jun-2026 [1 p.64], so growth comes from price, mix and the associates. Three changes are under way: the power tariff rise from June 2026, a move of scrap financing from taka loans to dollar UPAS credit that cut interest by more than half in FY2026, and BSRM Wires' expansion into LRPC, electrodes, ACSR core wire, chain-link fence and fasteners, funded by BSRM Ltd's Tk 2.0bn subscription approved in October 2025. The board also set annual CSR spending at 0.25% of the previous year's revenue, about Tk 270m on FY2026 revenue, which we include in administrative costs.

Exhibit 3FY2026 revenue by product: billet is the largest line at Tk 36.9bn
Product (BDT mn, net of VAT)FY2025AFY2026A
MS billet (mainly to BSRM Steels)22,77436,913
Xtreme 500W deformed bar incl. stirrup and bend-cut32,95726,447
MS square bar18,76120,911
MS angle14,21516,640
Ribbed wire rod1,5161,719
Others4,7514,649
Head office revenue94,973107,278
Source: Note 33.01-B [1 p.53]
Exhibit 4Capacity use: billet at 100% and re-rolling at 97% in FY2026
Capacity (kt)FY2025A outputFY2026A outputFY2026 use
MS billet1,3009971,305100.4%
Finished MS products80069577496.7%
Wires unit24161977.8%
Source: Note 50 [1 p.64]
Exhibit 5Volume model: tonnes sold and billet melted
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Own rolled-product sales (kt)799772733763786
Billet sold to third parties (kt, est.)289505480499514
Billet melted (kt)9971,3051,2571,3071,346
Melting utilisation77%100%97%101%104%
Source: Income statement sheet [19]

Rebar demand is down to about 4 million tonnes a year; BSRM runs near capacity while rivals idle

Steel demand in Bangladesh follows construction: the Annual Development Programme (roads, bridges, metro rail, power plants) and private housing. The Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association put consumption at about 40 lakh tonnes, against about 70 lakh tonnes before the slowdown, and said the government's share of demand fell from 60% to 20%, as reported by The Daily Star on 11-Oct-2026 [13]. The same report says 7 of 39 mills have shut and others run at 40-60% of capacity, while BSRM runs at about 80% of its group capacity. Industry capacity of about 1.22 crore tonnes is three times demand, as reported by The Daily Star on 3-Sep-2026 [12].

Market share: BigMint put the BSRM group at 25%, AKS at 14%, GPH at 8% and KSRM at 6% in 2024, reported by The Daily Star [14]. BSRM Ltd's own 772 kt of rolled products would be about 19% of a 4.0 mt market, but that figure combines a company number with a single-outlet market estimate and we use it only as context. BSRM is the price setter: in March 2026 its rod sold at about Tk 95,000 a tonne against Tk 91,000-92,500 for KSRM, GPH and AKS [10]. Weak rivals help: GPH Ispat's FY2026 finance cost of Tk 5.5bn almost equalled its operating profit [9 p.10].

Recovery depends on public works. ECNEC approved 12 projects costing Tk 1.69 lakh crore in September 2026, including the Gabtali-Dasherkandi metro line, reported by Prothom Alo [18] and The Daily Star [13]. We assume, as a judgement, that these reach procurement in FY2028-29; in our forecast rolled volume falls 5% in FY27 and rises 4% and 3% after.

How the industry drivers move BSRM Ltd's lines. Demand moves rolled volume and, through BSRM Steels, billet volume; competition moves the rod price premium; scrap and the taka move materials per tonne and the billet price; the power tariff moves energy per tonne; interest rates and Bangladesh Bank's rules on dollar trade credit move finance cost and the FX line. Imports of finished rebar are small because domestic capacity far exceeds demand. Duties and VAT on scrap and rod are set in the June budget each year; we hold them unchanged, and the NBR schedule for FY2027 is a gap in our data.

Exhibit 6Rebar market context (dated, single-outlet figures)
ItemValueSource
Consumption (BSMA)~40 lakh t/yrDaily Star 11-Oct-2026
Industry capacity~1.22 crore tDaily Star 3-Sep-2026
Mills shut7 of 39Daily Star 11-Oct-2026
BSRM group share (2024)25%BigMint via Daily Star
Govt share of demand60% -> 20%Daily Star 11-Oct-2026
Source: [13] [12] [14]
Exhibit 7Rod mill-gate prices, March 2026: BSRM at a Tk 2,500-4,000/t premium
BrandTk per tonne
BSRM95,000
AKS92,500
GPH92,000
KSRM91,000
Source: [10]

Scrap is 76% of cost of sales and energy 12%: a 15% scrap rise costs Tk 5.86 of FY27F EPS

Per tonne of billet needed for what it sold (billet sold plus rolled tonnes x 1.06), BSRM Ltd spent Tk 56,667 on materials, Tk 8,977 on energy and Tk 8,086 on other conversion in FY2026 (Income statement sheet). Scrap and direct materials were Tk 75.0bn [1 p.54], power Tk 10.6bn, gas Tk 0.8bn and fuel Tk 0.5bn [1 p.55]. Induction melting is power-hungry, so energy is a larger cost here than at BSRM Steels.

Scrap: HMS cost about US$336 a tonne CFR in September-October 2025 and US$360-370 in December 2025 [11]; landed prices reached about US$410 in March 2026 after a freight shock [10]. We assume a 7% rise in US$ terms in FY2027 and flat after, the same as for BSRM Steels. Scrap is priced in dollars, so the taka matters twice: through cost (85% of materials) and through the dollar loans. Rod price: the TCB quoted 60-grade rod at Tk 92,500-94,500 a tonne on 5-Oct-2026, about 10% above a year earlier [13]; we model rolled-product realisation +8% in FY27 to Tk 101,038 a tonne.

Energy: BERC raised the 33 kV industrial tariff from Tk 10.75 to Tk 12.75 a unit from June 2026, reported by The Financial Express [16] and Prothom Alo [17]. We model energy per tonne +12% in FY27, +5% after.

Exhibit 8Cost per tonne of billet required (Tk)
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Materials52,15756,66761,66462,71365,054
Energy8,3138,97710,05410,55611,084
Other conversion13,1898,0868,4918,9159,361
Rolled-product realisation91,31393,554101,038103,564106,671
Billet price78,72773,12579,55181,51084,798
Source: Income statement sheet [19] · FY2025 per-tonne figures are distorted by de-stocking; FY2026 is the base.
Exhibit 9Cost mix: materials 76% and energy 12% of FY2026 cost of sales
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Materials, % of cost of sales69%76%76%75%75%
Energy, % of cost of sales11%12%12%13%13%
Gross margin12%9%9%9%8%
Source: Ratios sheet [19]
Exhibit 10FY2027F EPS by scrap and taka shock (Tk): the taka matters more than scrap
Scrap shock \ BDT/US$-5%0%+5%+10%+15%
-15.0%30.1824.9119.6514.399.13
-7.5%27.3721.9916.6011.225.83
base24.5719.0613.558.042.53
+7.5%21.7616.1310.504.86-0.77
+15.0%18.9613.207.441.68-4.07
Source: Sensitivity sheet, Grid B [19]

Operating margin ranged 6.1-9.4% over FY2021-26; FY2026 was 7.1%

Revenue has swung with steel prices and the taka: Tk 59.9bn in FY2021, Tk 115.1bn at the FY2023 peak after the devaluation, Tk 82.8bn in FY2024, Tk 95.7bn in FY2025 and Tk 109.1bn in FY2026 [2 p.70] [1 p.9]. Operating margin was 9.1%, 6.1%, 7.1%, 8.1%, 9.4% and 7.1% in FY2021-26; the median of 7.6% plus about 1.5% of revenue in depreciation gives the 9.0% mid-cycle EBITDA margin we use.

In FY2026 gross margin fell to 9.2% from 11.9% as billet, a low-margin product, rose to 34% of revenue and scrap stocks were rebuilt; operating profit fell 13.8% to Tk 7.7bn. Net profit still rose 14.4% to Tk 7.0bn (EPS Tk 23.54) because finance cost fell from Tk 2.5bn to Tk 1.0bn and the share of BSRM Steels' profit rose to Tk 2.2bn [1 p.9]. Associates were 32% of FY2026 net profit.

Normal is not FY2025 or FY2026. FY2025 benefited from de-stocking of finished goods made at lower cost and from a rod price that held up while scrap eased; FY2026 carried a large scrap stock build, a higher billet share and a lower finance cost from dollar credit. We therefore set the mid-cycle margin from the six-year median rather than from either year, and test 7.5% (the FY2022 trough) and 10.5% (near the FY2025 peak) in the bear and bull cases. Group ROE was 7.9% in FY2022, 7.1% in FY2023, 10.0% in FY2024, 13.0% in FY2025 and 13.3% in FY2026; our FY2027-29F base of about 9-10% is in the middle of that range.

Exhibit 11Five years of results: EPS Tk 10.34 to Tk 23.54
FY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026A
Revenue79,783115,06182,79695,720109,136
Gross profit6,48610,3199,56311,34510,043
Operating profit4,8468,1596,6958,9657,725
Net profit3,0882,9144,3236,1427,029
EPS (Tk)10.349.7614.4820.5723.54
Operating margin6%7%8%9%7%
Source: [2 p.70] [1 p.9]; Income statement sheet
Exhibit 12ROE: group 7-13% in FY2023-26
FY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
ROE, group (average equity)—7%10%13%13%10%10%9%
ROE, own operations ex-revaluation (average)————20%14%14%12%
Source: Ratios sheet [19]
Exhibit 13Quarterly EPS: the second half is stronger
BDT mn9MFY25AQ4FY25AFY2025A9MFY26AQ4FY26AFY2026A
Revenue (consolidated)69,37627,26296,63880,87829,070109,948
Gross profit8,5402,87411,4147,1602,93510,094
Gross margin12.3%10.5%11.8%8.9%10.1%9.2%
Net profit4,2711,8716,1424,6412,3887,029
of which share of associates1,0705451,6141,3478772,224
EPS (Tk)14.316.2720.5715.548.0023.54

From the Quarterly tab of the model.

Source: [3 p.3] [6]; Quarterly sheet

BSRM Steels earned Tk 7.2bn in FY2026; BSRM Ltd's 31.19% share was Tk 2.2bn

BSRM Steels Ltd rolls about 1.6 mt a year at Fouzderhat and Mirsarai. Its FY2026 revenue was Tk 129.5bn, net profit Tk 7,153m, EPS Tk 19.03 and NAV Tk 106.36 a share [1 p.35] [7]. BSRM Ltd holds 117,253,590 shares, carried at Tk 12,471m under the equity method (Tk 41.8 per BSRM Ltd share) against Tk 10,623m at market. Our BSRM Steels report values it at Tk 52-144 a share, base Tk 110 [8]; at that base, the stake would add Tk 34.6 a share instead of Tk 28.5. We use the market price, as the listed stake can be priced directly.

In the forecast the share of profit comes straight from the BSRM Steels model: BSRM Steels' profit falls to Tk 5,986m in FY27F and is Tk 6,964m in FY28F (base), so BSRM Ltd's share is Tk 1,867m and Tk 2,172m. Dividends received are 32% of that profit a year later; the FY2026 Tk 6.00 dividend brings in Tk 704m in FY27.

BSRM Wires Ltd (31.76%) makes galvanised wire, electrodes and LRPC. BSRM Ltd subscribed Tk 2.0bn of new shares in FY2026 for new wire and fastener plants [6]; the company lost Tk 67m on revenue of Tk 6.0bn and its NAV is Tk 19.80 a share [1 p.36]. We hold it at book (Tk 2,158m) and its profit at zero until it earns on the new capital. BSRM (Hong Kong), 100% owned, trades steel (FY2026 profit Tk 16m) and is held at book (Tk 144m).

Cross-holding: BSRM Steels owns 28.8m BSRM Ltd shares. Through its 31.19% stake BSRM Ltd thus owns about 9.0m of its own shares indirectly, Tk 2.30 a share of the value inside part B. The holding discount covers this; we do not deduct it again.

Exhibit 14BSRM Steels: summary of the associate's FY2026 statements
BDT mnFY2025AFY2026A
Revenue103,665129,488
Profit for the year5,1767,154
EPS (Tk)13.7719.03
Total equity34,03339,987
NAV per share (Tk)90.52106.36
BSRM Ltd share of profit (31.19%)1,6142,231
Source: Note 8.03 [1 p.35]
Exhibit 15Share of profit of subsidiary and associates: about a third of net profit
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Share of profit: BSRM Steels (31.19%)1,6142,2311,8672,1722,134
Share of profit: BSRM Wires (31.76%)0-7000
Share of profit: BSRM (Hong Kong) (100%)5916161616
Share of profit of subsidiary and associates1,6742,2401,8832,1882,150
Associates' share of net profit27%32%33%34%34%
Source: Income statement sheet [19]
Exhibit 16Value of the BSRM Steels stake at different prices and discounts (Tk per BSRM Ltd share)
BSRMSTEEL price \ discount0%10%20%30%40%
Tk 7098.195.492.689.987.1
Tk 80102.098.995.892.689.5
Tk 90.6106.2102.699.195.592.0
Tk 100109.9106.0102.098.194.2
Tk 110113.8109.5105.2100.996.5
Source: Sensitivity sheet, Grid A [19]

Net debt Tk 32.2bn, 93% of it US$ trade loans at about 4%

At 30-Jun-2026 BSRM Ltd had short-term loans of Tk 33.5bn, long-term loans of Tk 2.8bn and leases of Tk 0.2bn, against cash of Tk 0.8bn and fixed deposits of Tk 3.5bn: net debt Tk 32.2bn, or 3.5x own EBITDA [1 p.8]. Of the short-term loans, Tk 31.1bn are accepted bills (ABP, US$ UPAS) of US$248.9m [1 p.68]. They explain why interest and charges fell to Tk 1.28bn (3.9% of opening debt) from Tk 3.09bn in FY2025 [1 p.59]: dollar trade credit is cheaper than taka loans at the system's 12.13% lending rate [5]. The price is a currency risk. The taka moved from Tk 124 to Tk 125 a dollar in FY2026; every 1% move is about Tk 310m before tax.

Working capital is large: inventory of Tk 29.2bn (108 days of cost of sales, including Tk 13.6bn of scrap), advances and deposits of Tk 9.7bn and receivables of Tk 5.2bn. Building scrap stock took operating cash flow down to Tk 2.1bn in FY2026 from Tk 15.3bn [1 p.12]. We assume 105 inventory days and interest at 4.5% in FY27 rising to 5.0%, as some funding moves back to taka; net debt falls to Tk 28.2bn by FY29F.

Book value is Tk 186.06 a share, but Tk 15.9bn of it is a revaluation reserve on land and plant, and Tk 14.8bn is the equity-method value of the associates.

Exhibit 17Balance sheet: own net debt peaks at Jun-26
BDT mnFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Assets
PPE, right-of-use and intangible assets———35,46735,59335,62735,70935,838
Capital work-in-progress———1,7642,1732,1732,1732,173
Investment in BSRM Steels, BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (equity method)———10,74614,77315,95217,54318,998
Other investments (BMS Steel 18%, Sajida bond)———218106106106106
Inventories———24,15929,22829,43031,33333,545
Trade and other receivables———2,1775,1954,6134,9175,234
Current account with related companies———5,6841,6651,6651,6651,665
Advances and deposits———11,0329,73810,23010,89211,661
Short-term investments (FDR)———3733,4783,4783,4783,478
Cash and cash equivalents———2,0507791,0001,0001,000
Total assets———93,671102,728104,274108,816113,699
Liabilities
Long-term loans incl. current portion———1,8312,8122,3411,8411,341
Short-term loans (balancing item)———30,86633,49330,97130,76231,166
Lease liabilities———62161161161161
Trade payables———1,4567291,1211,1941,278
Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other———2,3482,3712,4692,6322,802
Provisions for income tax and WPPF———1,9642,0672,0672,0672,067
Gratuity———449480480480480
Deferred tax liabilities———4,8945,0605,0605,0605,060
Total liabilities———43,87047,17344,67144,19744,355
Equity
Share capital and premium———5,0435,0435,0435,0435,043
Revaluation reserve———15,86115,85515,85515,85515,855
General, fair-value and translation reserves———431645645645645
Retained earnings———28,46534,01238,06043,07647,800
Total equity40,09541,93844,80449,80155,55559,60364,61969,343
Check: assets - liabilities - equity———0.0-0.00.00.00.0
Net debt (loans + leases - cash - FDR)———30,33632,20928,99628,28628,191
Own-operations equity (equity - equity-accounted investments)———39,05540,78243,65147,07650,345
NAV per share (Tk)134.29140.46150.06166.79186.06199.62216.42232.24

From the Balance sheet tab of the model.

Source: Balance sheet sheet [19]
Exhibit 18Leverage and cover: net debt 3.5x own EBITDA in FY2026
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Net debt / own EBITDA2.9x3.5x3.2x2.9x3.0x
Interest cover (operating profit / interest and charges)2.9x6.0x4.6x4.8x4.8x
Inventory days105108105105105
Source: Ratios sheet [19]
Exhibit 19Cash flow: CFO recovers once scrap stock stops building
BDT mnFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Net cash from operating activities (before interest)———15,3142,0917,8665,2744,743
of which working-capital change———6,101-5,310378-2,634-3,044
Capex (PPE, intangibles, CWIP)———-1,415-1,875-1,600-1,650-1,700
Dividends received from associates and subsidiary———384602704597695
Other investing (FDR, BSRM Wires subscription, interest, rent)———613-4,983000
Net cash from investing———-418-6,257-896-1,053-1,005
Dividends paid———-1,045-1,492-1,642-1,366-1,532
Interest paid, net (incl. FX on loans in forecast)———-2,618-983-2,114-2,147-2,111
Long-term loans, net———1,831981-471-500-500
Short-term loans, net———-10,079452-2,521-209404
Related-company loans and lease payments———-2,1433,937000
Net cash from financing———-14,0552,895-6,749-4,222-3,739
Net change in cash———841-1,27022100
Closing cash———2,0507791,0001,0001,000
Check: closing cash - balance sheet cash———0.0-0.0-0.00.00.0
Free cash flow to equity (CFO + capex + dividends received + interest)———11,665-1654,8552,0751,627

From the Cash flow tab of the model.

Source: Cash flow sheet [19]

Earnings quality: 32% of FY2026 profit is the associates' share, and only Tk 0.6bn of it came in as cash

BSRM Ltd's reported profit mixes cash earnings from its mills with the equity-method share of BSRM Steels, BSRM Wires and BSRM Hong Kong. In FY2026 that share was Tk 2,240m of Tk 7,029m net profit, while dividends received from the three were Tk 602m [1 p.12]. The company itself makes this point: under section 22 of the Income Tax Act 2023 it computes distributable profit as net profit less the unrealised associate share plus dividends received, Tk 5,391m, and the 30% minimum dividend on that, Tk 1,617m or Tk 5.42 a share [1 p.64]. The Tk 5.50 declared clears the floor.

Operating cash flow was weak in FY2026: Tk 2.1bn against Tk 15.3bn in FY2025, because inventory rose by Tk 5.1bn (scrap stock up from Tk 8.3bn to Tk 13.6bn) and receivables by Tk 3.0bn [1 p.61]. The cash gap was closed by collecting Tk 4.0bn from sister companies and by Tk 1.4bn of new loans; Tk 5.2bn went into fixed deposits and BSRM Wires shares. FY2025's very strong cash flow was the mirror image: finished-goods stock fell from Tk 9.9bn to Tk 4.6bn. Averaging the two years, cash conversion is close to the profit of the mills.

Two reporting points. First, the separate and consolidated columns are labelled in a different order on the balance sheet and the cash flow statement; we use the column that ties to separate cash of Tk 779m (operating cash flow Tk 2,091m, Tk 7.00 a share, note 43). The DSE notice's Tk 6.49 a share is the consolidated figure. Second, the financial statements were early-adopted under IFRS 18, so FY2025 figures are restated (finance cost Tk 2,514m vs Tk 2,622m before; operating cash flow now excludes interest paid). Our FY2022-24 history uses the pre-IFRS 18 five-year table, so operating profit in those years is not exactly comparable.

Related parties. BSRM Ltd sells most of its billet to BSRM Steels, buys logistics from BSRM Logistics, pays a brand royalty of Tk 230 a tonne to the sponsors' H. Akberali & Co., and lent money to sister companies at about 8.8% interest [1 p.62]. The thin billet margin (about 7% over cost to make) keeps profit out of BSRM Ltd (where shareholders outside the sponsor group own about 53%) and in BSRM Steels, of which BSRM Ltd owns 31.19%, so BSRM Ltd gets back only part of it. We treat this as a governance point, not a line in the base case. The auditor, Hussain Farhad & Co., gave an unmodified opinion [1 p.2].

Exhibit 33Associates' profit vs cash received (BDT mn)
FY2025AFY2026A
Share of profit of subsidiary and associates1,6742,240
Dividends received384602
Net operating cash flow (separate)15,3142,091
Net profit6,1427,029

FY27F EPS Tk 19.06: lower volume, power and the taka offset a better rod price

Revenue is volume x price for two products. Rolled products: 772 kt in FY2026 (our estimate from production of 773.5 kt adjusted for stock build and traded goods), -5% in FY27F and +4% and +3% after, at a realisation +8% in FY27F, +2.5% and +3% after. Billet to third parties follows BSRM Steels' volume and is priced at cost plus, so it moves with BSRM Ltd's cost per tonne. Revenue is Tk 112.2bn in FY27F and Tk 127.4bn in FY29F.

Cost of sales is tonnes melted x (materials + energy + other conversion) plus depreciation. Materials move with scrap in US$ and the taka, energy with the power tariff (+12%), and other conversion +5% (half wages and stores at 7%, half material-like items). Gross margin is 8.9% in FY27F against 9.2% in FY2026; operating margin 6.7%, inside the 6.1-9.4% history.

Below operating profit: interest Tk 1.6bn (4.5% of opening debt), an FX loss of Tk 0.6bn on the US$ loans from the 2% taka crawl, WPPF at 5.4% and tax at 27.5% of own profit (FY2026 27.7%). Own net profit falls to Tk 3.8bn from Tk 4.8bn; with the associates' share of Tk 1.9bn net profit is Tk 5.7bn, EPS Tk 19.06. The dividend payout stays at 24% (FY2024-26), DPS Tk 4.57; the tax-law floor of 30% of distributable profit (which excludes unrealised associate profit) was about Tk 5.42 in FY2026 [1 p.64], so the payout may be higher than we model.

What to check in Q1 FY27 (due mid-November 2026). No Q1 FY27 statement was on DSE on 31-Oct-2026. The model uses FY2026 audited figures and will be updated when the Q1 FY27 statement is filed.

How the scenarios are built. The bear and bull cases move the same drivers as the risk table, by plausible one-in-four sizes, and the BSRM Steels profit in each case is taken from the matching BSRM Steels scenario so the two reports stay consistent. Rolled volume (-15% / +2% in FY27), the rod price (+7.5% / +6%), scrap (+7% / +5%), the taka (-5% / flat), energy (+15% / +8%) and interest (+1pp / -1pp) run through FY27-29; in the DCF the margin then fades to the case's mid-cycle level (7.5% / 10.5%), so the terminal year sits inside the company's own six-year range. The holding discount moves from 20% to 30% / 10%.

Exhibit 20Forecast summary: EPS Tk 23.54 to Tk 19.06 in FY27F
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Revenue95,720109,136112,250119,644127,363
Gross profit11,34510,0439,94710,72410,753
Operating profit8,9657,7257,5058,1017,937
EBITDA (own operations)10,6249,2909,0719,6699,508
Interest and bank charges-3,091-1,280-1,641-1,674-1,638
FX gain/(loss) on borrowings-114110-619-619-619
Own net profit (ex associates)4,4694,7893,8074,1944,106
Share of profit of subsidiary and associates1,6742,2401,8832,1882,150
Net profit (separate = consolidated)6,1427,0295,6906,3826,256
EPS (Tk)20.5723.5419.0621.3720.95
Source: Income statement sheet [19]
Exhibit 21Income statement
BDT mnFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Volume (kt)
Own rolled-product sales (kt)——803799772733763786
Billet sold to third parties (kt, est.)———289505480499514
Total tonnes sold (kt)———1,0881,2771,2131,2611,299
Billet melted (kt)———9971,3051,2571,3071,346
Billet requirement for tonnes sold (kt)———1,1241,3241,2571,3071,346
Melting utilisation———76.7%100.4%96.7%100.6%103.6%
Rolling utilisation (sales / 800 kt)———99.9%96.5%91.7%95.3%98.2%
Prices (Tk per tonne)
Rolled products: net realisation (Tk/t)———91,31393,554101,038103,564106,671
Billet: price (Tk/t)———78,72773,12579,55181,51084,798
Profit and loss (separate statements)
Revenue: MS billet———22,77436,91338,14840,65243,560
Revenue: rolled products and other———72,94672,22474,10278,99283,803
Revenue79,783115,06182,79695,720109,136112,250119,644127,363
Materials per tonne of billet required (scrap, sponge iron, ferro-alloys)———52,15756,66761,66462,71365,054
Sensitivity cost shock per rolled tonne (0 in the published case)—————0——
Energy per tonne of billet required (power, gas, fuel; melting + rolling)———8,3138,97710,05410,55611,084
Other conversion per tonne of billet required (ex-D&A; incl. stock change, procured goods)———13,1898,0868,4918,9159,361
Cost of sales73,297104,74273,23484,37699,093102,303108,920116,610
Gross profit6,48610,3199,56311,34510,0439,94710,72410,753
Selling and distribution9011,1511,8791,3771,0851,1221,1961,274
Administrative expenses8031,0651,0291,0361,2401,3391,4461,562
Other operating income and FX on operations635741327202020
Operating profit4,8468,1596,6958,9657,7257,5058,1017,937
Depreciation and amortisation———1,6601,5651,5661,5681,571
EBITDA (own operations)———10,6249,2909,0719,6699,508
EBITDA per tonne sold (Tk)———9,7647,2767,4797,6657,318
Other investment income (interest, rent)———140165160160160
Interest and bank charges———-3,091-1,280-1,641-1,674-1,638
Interest from related companies———610323146146146
Other finance items (FX inside finance cost)———-33-42000
FX gain/(loss) on borrowings———-114110-619-619-619
Own profit before WPPF and tax———6,4777,0025,5516,1155,986
WPPF and welfare fund———-343-380-300-330-323
Income tax———-1,666-1,832-1,444-1,591-1,557
Own net profit (ex associates)———4,4694,7893,8074,1944,106
Share of profit: BSRM Steels (31.19%)———1,6142,2311,8672,1722,134
Share of profit: BSRM Wires (31.76%)———0-7000
Share of profit: BSRM (Hong Kong) (100%)———5916161616
Share of profit of subsidiary and associates———1,6742,2401,8832,1882,150
Net profit (separate = consolidated)3,0882,9144,3236,1427,0295,6906,3826,256
EPS (Tk)10.349.7614.4820.5723.5419.0621.3720.95
Own-operations EPS (Tk)———14.9716.0412.7514.0513.75
DPS declared (Tk)——3.505.005.504.575.135.03

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: [19]
Exhibit 22Assumptions with their reasons
DriverFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Sensitivity shock: scrap US$/t in FY2027F (level, carried forward)0.0%———————
Sensitivity shock: BDT/US$ in FY2027F (level, carried forward)0.0%———————
Pass-through of a sensitivity cost shock into the rod price (same year)60.0%———————
Volume and capacity
Re-rolling capacity, finished MS products (kt)———800800800800800
Billet melting capacity (kt)———1,3001,3001,3001,3001,300
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bear—————-15.0%2.0%3.0%
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - base—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bull—————2.0%3.0%2.0%
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - active—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bear—————-15.0%2.0%3.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - base—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bull—————2.0%3.0%2.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - active—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Billet used per tonne of rolled product (t/t)—————1.061.061.06
Prices and unit costs
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bear—————7.5%2.5%3.0%
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - base—————8.0%2.5%3.0%
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bull—————6.0%2.0%3.0%
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - active—————8.0%2.5%3.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bear—————7.0%0.0%2.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - base—————7.0%0.0%2.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bull—————5.0%0.0%2.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - active—————7.0%0.0%2.0%
BDT per US$, change - bear—————5.0%3.0%3.0%
BDT per US$, change - base—————2.0%2.0%2.0%
BDT per US$, change - bull—————0.0%1.0%1.0%
BDT per US$, change - active—————2.0%2.0%2.0%
Share of material cost priced in US$85.0%———————
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bear—————15.0%6.0%5.0%
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - base—————12.0%5.0%5.0%
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bull—————8.0%3.0%3.0%
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - active—————12.0%5.0%5.0%
Other conversion cost per tonne melted, growth—————5.0%5.0%5.0%
Operating expenses and other income
Selling and distribution, % of revenue—————1.0%1.0%1.0%
Administrative expenses, growth—————8.0%8.0%8.0%
Other operating income incl. FX on operations (BDT mn)—————202020
Other investment income: bank interest and rent (BDT mn)—————160160160
Associates and subsidiary (equity-accounted in the separate statements)
Stake in BSRM Steels31.2%———————
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bear—————1,5621,7971,766
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - base—————5,9866,9646,843
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bull—————8,6409,8669,694
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - active—————5,9866,9646,843
BSRM Steels payout (dividend received next year)—————32.0%32.0%32.0%
Share of profit of BSRM Wires (BDT mn)—————000
Share of profit of BSRM (Hong Kong) (BDT mn)—————161616
Funding
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bear—————5.5%6.0%6.0%
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - base—————4.5%5.0%5.0%
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bull—————3.5%4.0%4.0%
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - active—————4.5%5.0%5.0%
Interest earned on current account with related companies, % of opening balance—————8.8%8.8%8.8%
Net US$ liability (BDT mn equivalent)30,970———————
WPPF, % of own profit before WPPF—————5.4%5.4%5.4%
Effective tax rate on own profit before tax—————27.5%27.5%27.5%
Dividend payout on group EPS (declared, paid next year)—————24.0%24.0%24.0%
Long-term loan repayment (BDT mn)—————471500500
Minimum cash balance (BDT mn)—————1,0001,0001,000
Capex and working capital
Capex incl. CWIP (BDT mn)—————1,6001,6501,700
D&A, % of opening fixed assets (PPE, ROU, intangibles)—————4.4%4.4%4.4%
Share of D&A in cost of sales—————94.8%94.8%94.8%
Inventory days (on cost of sales)—————105105105
Receivable days (on revenue)—————151515
Advances and deposits, % of cost of sales—————10.0%10.0%10.0%
Trade payable days (on cost of sales)—————444
Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other, % of revenue—————2.2%2.2%2.2%

From the Assumptions tab of the model.

Source: [19]
Exhibit 23Revenue and operating margin, FY2022-29F
Tk bn · right: %
050.01001500%2%4%6%8%10.0%ForecastFY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FFY28FFY29F79.811582.895.7109112120127
Revenue (Tk bn)Operating margin %
Data
FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FFY28FFY29F
Revenue (Tk bn)79.80115.1082.8095.70109.10112.20119.60127.40
Operating margin %6.107.108.109.407.106.706.806.20
Source: Income statement and Ratios sheets [19]
Exhibit 24Ratios
RatioFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Revenue growth—44.2%-28.0%15.6%14.0%2.9%6.6%6.5%
Gross margin8.1%9.0%11.5%11.9%9.2%8.9%9.0%8.4%
Operating margin6.1%7.1%8.1%9.4%7.1%6.7%6.8%6.2%
EBITDA margin (own)———11.1%8.5%8.1%8.1%7.5%
Energy, % of cost of sales———11.1%12.0%12.4%12.7%12.8%
Materials, % of cost of sales———69.5%75.7%75.8%75.3%75.1%
Billet share of revenue———23.8%33.8%34.0%34.0%34.2%
Associates' share of net profit———27.2%31.9%33.1%34.3%34.4%
ROE, group (average equity)—7.1%10.0%13.0%13.3%9.9%10.3%9.3%
ROE, own operations ex-revaluation (average)————19.9%14.4%14.2%12.5%
ROIC, own operations ex-revaluation———12.9%9.6%9.4%9.6%8.9%
Net debt / own EBITDA———2.9x3.5x3.2x2.9x3.0x
Interest cover (operating profit / interest and charges)———2.9x6.0x4.6x4.8x4.8x
Inventory days———105108105105105
Payout (DPS / EPS)——24.2%24.3%23.4%24.0%24.0%24.0%
P/E at Tk 95.49.2x9.8x6.6x4.6x4.1x5.0x4.5x4.6x
P/B at Tk 95.40.7x0.7x0.6x0.6x0.5x0.5x0.4x0.4x
Dividend yield at Tk 95.4——3.7%5.2%5.8%4.8%5.4%5.3%

From the Ratios tab of the model.

Source: [19]

Sum of the parts: fair value range Tk 45-140; the own business at a returns-consistent 4.5x EBITDA

Why sum of the parts. The BSRM Steels stake is 29% of our value and is separately listed, so the skill's rule for holdcos applies. We avoid double counting: part A uses the separate statements with the associates' profit removed, and parts B and C value the holdings once.

Part A, own operations (Tk 62.9 a share) blends three legs. (1) Mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (50%): 9.0% EBITDA margin on FY28F revenue of Tk 119.6bn at 4.5x gives EV Tk 48.7bn; less net debt of Tk 32.2bn, plus the Tk 1.7bn current account with sister companies and other investments, equity is Tk 61.0 a share. (2) DCF (30%): free cash flow to the firm for FY27-31F, fading to the mid-cycle margin, at a 12.4% WACC; terminal growth 6% with reinvestment of g / return on new capital (11%, the FY25-26 average own ROIC ex-revaluation), so terminal value is 70% of EV. This gives Tk 52.7. (3) P/E (20%): 6.5x own FY27F EPS of Tk 12.75 gives Tk 82.9.

Reconciling the legs. BSRM Ltd's own return on capital (9.6% in FY2026, 9.4% in FY27F) is below its 12.4% WACC, so growth adds little and a cash-flow-consistent multiple is low. We therefore set the EV/EBITDA multiple from returns, not from BSRM Steels' 5.5x: 4.5x = (1 - g/RONIC) x NOPAT/EBITDA x (1+g)/(WACC - g), the same formula as the DCF terminal value. The remaining gap between the legs is the margin path (DCF uses FY27-29F 7.5-8.1% before fading to 9.0%), not the multiple. FX: the base taka path is -2% a year; the P/E leg includes the resulting FX loss on US$ loans in FY27F EPS, and the EV legs carry it through net debt at the closing rate, so neither double counts it. The P/E leg sits between them. The blend implies 4.9x own FY27F EPS and 5.4x FY27F EBITDA.

Cost of equity 16.2% = 10-year T-bond 9.27% (25-Oct-2026 auction [5]) + beta 0.85 x 7.0% ERP + 1.0% liquidity premium. Raw weekly beta vs DSEX is 0.78 (104 weeks, correlation 0.47) [4]; Blume-adjusted 0.85, above the F15 floor of 0.7. Pre-tax cost of debt 10%, debt weight 45%, the same as for BSRM Steels. Liquidity premium 1.0% because turnover is Tk 9.2m a day, a third of BSRM Steels'.

Part B, BSRM Steels stake (Tk 28.5): 117.25m shares x Tk 90.6 = Tk 10.6bn, less a 20% holding discount. The discount reflects that the block equals about 440 days of BSRMSTEEL turnover, that only about a third of BSRM Steels' profit is paid out, and the cross-holding. Bear 30%, bull 10%. Part C (Tk 7.7): BSRM Wires and BSRM HK at book.

Against own history. At Tk 99 the shares would trade at 5.2x FY27F group EPS and 0.53x book (0.75x ex-revaluation). Year-end P/E was 9.2x FY22, 9.8x FY23, 6.6x FY24, 4.6x FY25 and 4.1x FY26 at today's price. The sustainable group ROE of about 9-10% in FY27-29F sits inside the 7-13% range of FY2022-26.

Exhibit 25Own-operations DCF: terminal value 70% of EV
BDT mnFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Revenue112,250119,644127,363135,005143,105
EBITDA margin8%8%7%8%9%
NOPAT5,1475,5565,4446,5457,756
Capex-1,600-1,650-1,700-1,571-1,571
Change in working capital378-2,634-3,044-2,782-2,949
FCFF5,4922,8402,2713,7644,807
PV of FCFF4,8852,2471,5982,3562,677
Source: Valuation sheet [19]
Exhibit 26Cost of equity 16.2%, WACC 12.4%
InputValue
Risk-free rate: BB 10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-20269.3%
Raw beta vs DSEX (104 weekly returns)0.78
Beta used (Blume-adjusted, floor 0.7)0.85
Equity risk premium7.0%
Liquidity premium1.0%
Cost of equity16.2%
Pre-tax cost of debt (marginal)10.0%
Tax rate22.5%
After-tax cost of debt7.8%
Debt weight, D / (D + E)45.0%
WACC12.4%
Terminal growth (nominal BDT)6.0%
Return on new invested capital (terminal)11.0%

From the WACC tab of the model.

Source: WACC sheet [19]; [5]; [4]
Exhibit 27Own-operations EV/EBITDA leg by multiple and mid-cycle margin (Tk per share)
Multiple \ margin7.5%8.25%9.0%9.75%10.5%
4.5x33.346.860.373.987.4
5.0x48.363.378.493.4108.4
5.5x63.379.996.4112.9129.5
6.0x78.496.4114.4132.5150.5
6.5x93.4112.9132.5152.0171.5
Source: Sensitivity sheet, Grid C [19]
Exhibit 28DCF leg by WACC and terminal growth (Tk per share)
WACC \ g4%5%6%7%8%
-2pp109.6113.7119.0126.5139.1
-1pp80.280.279.878.475.6
base57.955.852.748.040.6
+1pp40.337.232.927.018.3
+2pp26.222.617.811.52.8
Source: Sensitivity sheet, Grid D [19]
Exhibit 29Scenarios: fair value, EPS and parts by case
CaseFair value (Tk)FY27F EPSFY28F EPSOwn ops (Tk/sh)Stake (Tk/sh)
Bear45.25.36.712.624.9
Base99.119.121.462.928.5
Bull140.127.429.6100.432.0
Source: Sensitivity sheet [19]
Exhibit 30Listed steel peers on FY2026 figures
MetricBSRMLTDBSRMSTEELGPHISPAT
Price 29-Oct-2026 (Tk)95.4090.6015.30
EPS FY2026 (Tk)23.5419.030.07
P/E4.1x4.8x218.6x
NAV per share (Tk)186.06106.3651.81
P/B0.5x0.9x0.3x
DPS FY2026 (Tk)5.506.00—

From the Peers tab of the model.

Source: Peers sheet; [7] [9 p.42]

A 10% weaker taka is the largest single risk: Tk 11.02 off FY27F EPS

  • Taka (FX loss and materials cost). Net US$ liabilities of Tk 31.0bn [1 p.68]: a 10% weaker taka in FY27 costs Tk 11.02 of EPS and Tk 10.3 of fair value.
  • Rod price (rolled-product realisation). A 5% lower price for a year, recovered in FY28, costs Tk 8.43 of EPS and Tk 13.2 of value.
  • Scrap (materials per tonne). +15% with 60% passed on in the year: EPS -Tk 5.86; value -Tk 1.6 as the rest passes through in FY28.
  • Demand (rolled volume). -10% vs base: EPS -Tk 2.53, value -Tk 11.8.
  • Energy (energy per tonne). A second tariff rise, +15% more: EPS -Tk 2.72.
  • Interest (finance cost). +200bp if UPAS is replaced with taka loans: EPS -Tk 1.68.
  • BSRM Steels (part B). A 20% lower BSRMSTEEL price takes Tk 5.7 off fair value; billet sales -20% move value by Tk -5.4.
  • Related parties (governance). Billet is sold to a 31%-owned associate at about 7% over cost; Tk 1.66bn is due from sister companies and Tk 6.85bn of guarantees are being withdrawn [1 p.63]. Context, not in the base.
  • Opportunity. Rolled volume +5% vs base in FY27 adds Tk 1.26 of EPS and Tk 5.9 of value.
Exhibit 31Risk table: one driver at a time, everything else base
Driver changedFY27F EPS (Tk)ChangeFair value (Tk)Change
Scrap US$/t +15% in FY27 (60% passed into rod price, billet cost-plus)13.2-5.997.4-1.6
BDT 10% weaker vs US$ in FY27 (pass-through on costs; FX loss on Tk 31bn US$ UPAS)8.0-11.088.7-10.3
Rolled-product volume -10% vs base in FY27 (ADP stalls, share loss)16.5-2.587.3-11.8
Rod realisation -5% vs base in FY27, recovered in FY28 (price war)10.6-8.485.9-13.2
Energy cost/t +15% more in FY27 (second power/gas tariff rise)16.3-2.793.2-5.9
Interest rate +200bp on all borrowings FY27-29 (UPAS repriced to BDT)17.4-1.796.9-2.2
Billet sales to BSRM Steels -20% vs base in FY2719.40.393.7-5.4
BSRMSTEEL share price -20% (Tk 72.5)19.10.093.4-5.7
Opportunity: rolled-product volume +5% vs base in FY27 (ECNEC projects restart)20.31.3105.05.9
Source: Sensitivity sheet [19]
Exhibit 32Sensitivity grids and scenarios
Gridc1c2c3c4c5
Grid A: fair value per share (Tk); rows = BSRMSTEEL price, columns = holding discount 0% / 10% / 20% / 30% / 40%
BSRMSTEEL Tk 7098.195.492.689.987.1
BSRMSTEEL Tk 80102.098.995.892.689.5
BSRMSTEEL Tk 90.6106.2102.699.195.592.0
BSRMSTEEL Tk 100109.9106.0102.098.194.2
BSRMSTEEL Tk 110113.8109.5105.2100.996.5
Grid C: own-operations EV/EBITDA leg per share (Tk); rows = EV/EBITDA multiple, columns = mid-cycle margin 7.5% / 8.25% / 9.0% / 9.75% / 10.5%
4.5x33.346.860.373.987.4
5.0x48.363.378.493.4108.4
5.5x63.379.996.4112.9129.5
6.0x78.496.4114.4132.5150.5
6.5x93.4112.9132.5152.0171.5
Grid D: DCF leg per share (Tk); rows = WACC, columns = terminal growth 4% / 5% / 6% / 7% / 8%
WACC -2pp109.6113.7119.0126.5139.1
WACC -1pp80.280.279.878.475.6
WACC base57.955.852.748.040.6
WACC +1pp40.337.232.927.018.3
WACC +2pp26.222.617.811.52.8
Grid B: FY2027F group EPS (Tk); rows = scrap US$/t shock, columns = BDT/US$ shock -5% / 0 / +5% / +10% / +15% (recalculated model, values)
Scrap -15.0%30.1824.9119.6514.399.13
Scrap -7.5%27.3721.9916.6011.225.83
Scrap base24.5719.0613.558.042.53
Scrap +7.5%21.7616.1310.504.86-0.77
Scrap +15.0%18.9613.207.441.68-4.07
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values): fair value | FY27F EPS | FY28F EPS | own ops Tk/share | stake Tk/share
Bear45.185.346.6612.5724.90
Base99.0919.0621.3762.9128.46
Bull140.1427.3829.58100.4132.02
Risk table: one driver changed, everything else base (recalculated; values): FY27F EPS | change | fair value | change
Scrap US$/t +15% in FY27 (60% passed into rod price, billet cost-plus)13.20-5.8697.44-1.65—
BDT 10% weaker vs US$ in FY27 (pass-through on costs; FX loss on Tk 31bn US$ UPAS)8.04-11.0288.74-10.35—
Rolled-product volume -10% vs base in FY27 (ADP stalls, share loss)16.53-2.5387.28-11.81—
Rod realisation -5% vs base in FY27, recovered in FY28 (price war)10.63-8.4385.88-13.20—
Energy cost/t +15% more in FY27 (second power/gas tariff rise)16.33-2.7293.21-5.88—
Interest rate +200bp on all borrowings FY27-29 (UPAS repriced to BDT)17.38-1.6896.91-2.18—
Billet sales to BSRM Steels -20% vs base in FY2719.380.3293.71-5.37—
BSRMSTEEL share price -20% (Tk 72.5)19.060.0093.39-5.69—
Opportunity: rolled-product volume +5% vs base in FY27 (ECNEC projects restart)20.321.26104.995.90—

From the Sensitivity tab of the model.

Source: [19]

What to watch: Q1 FY27 results in mid-November and the 15-Nov-2026 record date for the Tk 5.50 dividend

  • Q1 FY27 (Jul-Sep 2026) results, due mid-November. Last year Q1 EPS was Tk 4.15; the monsoon quarter is the weakest.
  • Dividend: Tk 5.50 cash, record date 15-Nov-2026, AGM 17-Dec-2026 [6] [15].
  • Taka and UPAS: any step move in BDT/US$ and any Bangladesh Bank change to UPAS rules.
  • BSRM Steels: its Q1 FY27 profit feeds a third of BSRM Ltd's earnings.
  • BSRM Wires: start-up of the new plants funded by the Tk 2.0bn investment.

Model update note: this report uses the FY2026 audited statements (to 30-Jun-2026). The model will be updated when the Q1 FY27 statement is filed.

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

DriverFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Scenario selector (1 = bear, 2 = base, 3 = bull)2———————
Sensitivity shock: scrap US$/t in FY2027F (level, carried forward)0.0%———————
Sensitivity shock: BDT/US$ in FY2027F (level, carried forward)0.0%———————
Pass-through of a sensitivity cost shock into the rod price (same year)60.0%———————
Volume and capacity
Re-rolling capacity, finished MS products (kt)———800800800800800
Billet melting capacity (kt)———1,3001,3001,3001,3001,300
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bear—————-15.0%2.0%3.0%
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - base—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - bull—————2.0%3.0%2.0%
Own rolled-product sales volume growth - active—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bear—————-15.0%2.0%3.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - base—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - bull—————2.0%3.0%2.0%
Billet sales to third parties (mainly BSRM Steels), volume growth - active—————-5.0%4.0%3.0%
Billet used per tonne of rolled product (t/t)—————1.061.061.06
Prices and unit costs
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bear—————7.5%2.5%3.0%
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - base—————8.0%2.5%3.0%
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - bull—————6.0%2.0%3.0%
Rolled-product net realisation per tonne, growth - active—————8.0%2.5%3.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bear—————7.0%0.0%2.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - base—————7.0%0.0%2.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - bull—————5.0%0.0%2.0%
Imported HMS scrap US$/t, change - active—————7.0%0.0%2.0%
BDT per US$, change - bear—————5.0%3.0%3.0%
BDT per US$, change - base—————2.0%2.0%2.0%
BDT per US$, change - bull—————0.0%1.0%1.0%
BDT per US$, change - active—————2.0%2.0%2.0%
Share of material cost priced in US$85.0%———————
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bear—————15.0%6.0%5.0%
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - base—————12.0%5.0%5.0%
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - bull—————8.0%3.0%3.0%
Energy cost per tonne melted (power, gas, fuel), growth - active—————12.0%5.0%5.0%
Other conversion cost per tonne melted, growth—————5.0%5.0%5.0%
Operating expenses and other income
Selling and distribution, % of revenue—————1.0%1.0%1.0%
Administrative expenses, growth—————8.0%8.0%8.0%
Other operating income incl. FX on operations (BDT mn)—————202020
Other investment income: bank interest and rent (BDT mn)—————160160160
Associates and subsidiary (equity-accounted in the separate statements)
Stake in BSRM Steels31.2%———————
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bear—————1,5621,7971,766
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - base—————5,9866,9646,843
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - bull—————8,6409,8669,694
BSRM Steels net profit (BDT mn) - active—————5,9866,9646,843
BSRM Steels payout (dividend received next year)—————32.0%32.0%32.0%
Share of profit of BSRM Wires (BDT mn)—————000
Share of profit of BSRM (Hong Kong) (BDT mn)—————161616
Funding
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bear—————5.5%6.0%6.0%
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - base—————4.5%5.0%5.0%
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - bull—————3.5%4.0%4.0%
Interest and bank charges, % of opening borrowings - active—————4.5%5.0%5.0%
Interest earned on current account with related companies, % of opening balance—————8.8%8.8%8.8%
Net US$ liability (BDT mn equivalent)30,970———————
WPPF, % of own profit before WPPF—————5.4%5.4%5.4%
Effective tax rate on own profit before tax—————27.5%27.5%27.5%
Dividend payout on group EPS (declared, paid next year)—————24.0%24.0%24.0%
Long-term loan repayment (BDT mn)—————471500500
Minimum cash balance (BDT mn)—————1,0001,0001,000
Capex and working capital
Capex incl. CWIP (BDT mn)—————1,6001,6501,700
D&A, % of opening fixed assets (PPE, ROU, intangibles)—————4.4%4.4%4.4%
Share of D&A in cost of sales—————94.8%94.8%94.8%
Inventory days (on cost of sales)—————105105105
Receivable days (on revenue)—————151515
Advances and deposits, % of cost of sales—————10.0%10.0%10.0%
Trade payable days (on cost of sales)—————444
Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other, % of revenue—————2.2%2.2%2.2%

Income statement

BDT mnFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Volume (kt)
Own rolled-product sales (kt)——803799772733763786
Billet sold to third parties (kt, est.)———289505480499514
Total tonnes sold (kt)———1,0881,2771,2131,2611,299
Billet melted (kt)———9971,3051,2571,3071,346
Billet requirement for tonnes sold (kt)———1,1241,3241,2571,3071,346
Melting utilisation———76.7%100.4%96.7%100.6%103.6%
Rolling utilisation (sales / 800 kt)———99.9%96.5%91.7%95.3%98.2%
Prices (Tk per tonne)
Rolled products: net realisation (Tk/t)———91,31393,554101,038103,564106,671
Billet: price (Tk/t)———78,72773,12579,55181,51084,798
Profit and loss (separate statements)
Revenue: MS billet———22,77436,91338,14840,65243,560
Revenue: rolled products and other———72,94672,22474,10278,99283,803
Revenue79,783115,06182,79695,720109,136112,250119,644127,363
Materials per tonne of billet required (scrap, sponge iron, ferro-alloys)———52,15756,66761,66462,71365,054
Sensitivity cost shock per rolled tonne (0 in the published case)—————0——
Energy per tonne of billet required (power, gas, fuel; melting + rolling)———8,3138,97710,05410,55611,084
Other conversion per tonne of billet required (ex-D&A; incl. stock change, procured goods)———13,1898,0868,4918,9159,361
Cost of sales73,297104,74273,23484,37699,093102,303108,920116,610
Gross profit6,48610,3199,56311,34510,0439,94710,72410,753
Selling and distribution9011,1511,8791,3771,0851,1221,1961,274
Administrative expenses8031,0651,0291,0361,2401,3391,4461,562
Other operating income and FX on operations635741327202020
Operating profit4,8468,1596,6958,9657,7257,5058,1017,937
Depreciation and amortisation———1,6601,5651,5661,5681,571
EBITDA (own operations)———10,6249,2909,0719,6699,508
EBITDA per tonne sold (Tk)———9,7647,2767,4797,6657,318
Other investment income (interest, rent)———140165160160160
Interest and bank charges———-3,091-1,280-1,641-1,674-1,638
Interest from related companies———610323146146146
Other finance items (FX inside finance cost)———-33-42000
FX gain/(loss) on borrowings———-114110-619-619-619
Own profit before WPPF and tax———6,4777,0025,5516,1155,986
WPPF and welfare fund———-343-380-300-330-323
Income tax———-1,666-1,832-1,444-1,591-1,557
Own net profit (ex associates)———4,4694,7893,8074,1944,106
Share of profit: BSRM Steels (31.19%)———1,6142,2311,8672,1722,134
Share of profit: BSRM Wires (31.76%)———0-7000
Share of profit: BSRM (Hong Kong) (100%)———5916161616
Share of profit of subsidiary and associates———1,6742,2401,8832,1882,150
Net profit (separate = consolidated)3,0882,9144,3236,1427,0295,6906,3826,256
EPS (Tk)10.349.7614.4820.5723.5419.0621.3720.95
Own-operations EPS (Tk)———14.9716.0412.7514.0513.75
DPS declared (Tk)——3.505.005.504.575.135.03

Balance sheet

BDT mnFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Assets
PPE, right-of-use and intangible assets———35,46735,59335,62735,70935,838
Capital work-in-progress———1,7642,1732,1732,1732,173
Investment in BSRM Steels, BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (equity method)———10,74614,77315,95217,54318,998
Other investments (BMS Steel 18%, Sajida bond)———218106106106106
Inventories———24,15929,22829,43031,33333,545
Trade and other receivables———2,1775,1954,6134,9175,234
Current account with related companies———5,6841,6651,6651,6651,665
Advances and deposits———11,0329,73810,23010,89211,661
Short-term investments (FDR)———3733,4783,4783,4783,478
Cash and cash equivalents———2,0507791,0001,0001,000
Total assets———93,671102,728104,274108,816113,699
Liabilities
Long-term loans incl. current portion———1,8312,8122,3411,8411,341
Short-term loans (balancing item)———30,86633,49330,97130,76231,166
Lease liabilities———62161161161161
Trade payables———1,4567291,1211,1941,278
Contract liabilities, accrued expenses and other———2,3482,3712,4692,6322,802
Provisions for income tax and WPPF———1,9642,0672,0672,0672,067
Gratuity———449480480480480
Deferred tax liabilities———4,8945,0605,0605,0605,060
Total liabilities———43,87047,17344,67144,19744,355
Equity
Share capital and premium———5,0435,0435,0435,0435,043
Revaluation reserve———15,86115,85515,85515,85515,855
General, fair-value and translation reserves———431645645645645
Retained earnings———28,46534,01238,06043,07647,800
Total equity40,09541,93844,80449,80155,55559,60364,61969,343
Check: assets - liabilities - equity———0.0-0.00.00.00.0
Net debt (loans + leases - cash - FDR)———30,33632,20928,99628,28628,191
Own-operations equity (equity - equity-accounted investments)———39,05540,78243,65147,07650,345
NAV per share (Tk)134.29140.46150.06166.79186.06199.62216.42232.24

Cash flow

BDT mnFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Net cash from operating activities (before interest)———15,3142,0917,8665,2744,743
of which working-capital change———6,101-5,310378-2,634-3,044
Capex (PPE, intangibles, CWIP)———-1,415-1,875-1,600-1,650-1,700
Dividends received from associates and subsidiary———384602704597695
Other investing (FDR, BSRM Wires subscription, interest, rent)———613-4,983000
Net cash from investing———-418-6,257-896-1,053-1,005
Dividends paid———-1,045-1,492-1,642-1,366-1,532
Interest paid, net (incl. FX on loans in forecast)———-2,618-983-2,114-2,147-2,111
Long-term loans, net———1,831981-471-500-500
Short-term loans, net———-10,079452-2,521-209404
Related-company loans and lease payments———-2,1433,937000
Net cash from financing———-14,0552,895-6,749-4,222-3,739
Net change in cash———841-1,27022100
Closing cash———2,0507791,0001,0001,000
Check: closing cash - balance sheet cash———0.0-0.0-0.00.00.0
Free cash flow to equity (CFO + capex + dividends received + interest)———11,665-1654,8552,0751,627

Quarterly

BDT mn9MFY25AQ4FY25AFY2025A9MFY26AQ4FY26AFY2026A
Revenue (consolidated)69,37627,26296,63880,87829,070109,948
Gross profit8,5402,87411,4147,1602,93510,094
Gross margin12.3%10.5%11.8%8.9%10.1%9.2%
Net profit4,2711,8716,1424,6412,3887,029
of which share of associates1,0705451,6141,3478772,224
EPS (Tk)14.316.2720.5715.548.0023.54

Ratios

RatioFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Revenue growth—44.2%-28.0%15.6%14.0%2.9%6.6%6.5%
Gross margin8.1%9.0%11.5%11.9%9.2%8.9%9.0%8.4%
Operating margin6.1%7.1%8.1%9.4%7.1%6.7%6.8%6.2%
EBITDA margin (own)———11.1%8.5%8.1%8.1%7.5%
Energy, % of cost of sales———11.1%12.0%12.4%12.7%12.8%
Materials, % of cost of sales———69.5%75.7%75.8%75.3%75.1%
Billet share of revenue———23.8%33.8%34.0%34.0%34.2%
Associates' share of net profit———27.2%31.9%33.1%34.3%34.4%
ROE, group (average equity)—7.1%10.0%13.0%13.3%9.9%10.3%9.3%
ROE, own operations ex-revaluation (average)————19.9%14.4%14.2%12.5%
ROIC, own operations ex-revaluation———12.9%9.6%9.4%9.6%8.9%
Net debt / own EBITDA———2.9x3.5x3.2x2.9x3.0x
Interest cover (operating profit / interest and charges)———2.9x6.0x4.6x4.8x4.8x
Inventory days———105108105105105
Payout (DPS / EPS)——24.2%24.3%23.4%24.0%24.0%24.0%
P/E at Tk 95.49.2x9.8x6.6x4.6x4.1x5.0x4.5x4.6x
P/B at Tk 95.40.7x0.7x0.6x0.6x0.5x0.5x0.4x0.4x
Dividend yield at Tk 95.4——3.7%5.2%5.8%4.8%5.4%5.3%

Valuation

BDT mn unless statedFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Market and balance-sheet inputs (column B)
Share price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk)95.40————
Market cap28,485————
Own net debt at 30-Jun-202632,209————
Current account with related companies (at book)1,665————
Other investments at book106————
A. Own operations, 1: mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (50% of part A)
Mid-cycle EBITDA margin9.0%————
Normalised revenue = FY2028F119,644————
Mid-cycle EBITDA10,768————
EV/EBITDA multiple (returns-consistent)4.5x————
Enterprise value48,664————
Equity value of own operations18,226————
A. Own operations, 2: DCF FCFF (30% of part A)
Revenue112,250119,644127,363135,005143,105
EBITDA margin8.1%8.1%7.5%8.2%9.0%
EBITDA9,0719,6699,50811,11512,879
D&A1,5661,5681,5711,5711,571
EBIT7,5058,1017,9379,54411,308
WPPF and tax on EBIT-2,358-2,545-2,493-2,998-3,552
NOPAT5,1475,5565,4446,5457,756
Capex-1,600-1,650-1,700-1,571-1,571
Change in working capital378-2,634-3,044-2,782-2,949
FCFF5,4922,8402,2713,7644,807
Discount factor (years from 30-Jun-2026)0.890.790.700.630.56
PV of FCFF4,8852,2471,5982,3562,677
Terminal FCFF = NOPAT FY31 x (1+g) x (1 - g / RONIC)3,737————
Terminal value at FY2031F58,207————
PV of terminal value32,416————
Enterprise value (DCF)46,180————
Terminal value share of EV70.2%————
Equity value of own operations (DCF)15,742————
A. Own operations, 3: P/E on own FY2027F EPS (20% of part A)
P/E multiple applied6.5x————
Own-operations FY2027F EPS (Tk)12.75————
Equity value of own operations (P/E)24,747————
Part A: own operations, blended (50/30/20)18,785————
B. BSRM Steels stake (listed) at market
BSRMSTEEL price, DSE close 29-Oct-2026 (Tk)90.60————
117.25m shares at market10,623————
Holding discount20.0%————
Part B: BSRM Steels stake after discount8,499————
C. Unlisted holdings at book
BSRM Wires (31.76%) at carrying value2,158————
BSRM (Hong Kong) at carrying value144————
Part C: unlisted holdings2,302————
Sum of the parts
Equity value (A + B + C)29,585————
Fair value per share (Tk)99.1————
of which own operations (Tk/share)62.9————
of which BSRM Steels stake (Tk/share)28.5————
of which BSRM Wires and BSRM HK (Tk/share)7.7————
Own operations per share: EV/EBITDA leg (Tk)61.0————
Own operations per share: DCF leg (Tk)52.7————
Own operations per share: P/E leg (Tk)82.9————
BSRM Steels stake share of fair value28.7%————
Memo: checks and cross-references
Memo: stake at our BSRMSTEEL base fair value Tk 110.0, same 20% discount (Tk/share)34.6————
Memo: BSRMLTD shares held by BSRM Steels, look-through (mn shares)8.98————
Memo: circular value inside part B (Tk/share)2.30————
Memo: equity-method book value of BSRM Steels (Tk/share)41.8————
Probability-weighted fair value (25/50/25, Tk)95.9————
Implied by the fair value
P/E FY2027F (group EPS)5.2x————
P/B (Jun-26 NAV Tk 186.06)0.5x————
P/B ex-revaluation reserve0.7x————
Own operations: implied EV / FY2027F EBITDA5.4x————
Own operations: implied P/E on own FY2027F EPS4.9x————
Dividend yield FY2027F4.6%————
Price-implied value of own operations (market cap - part B - part C)17,685————
Price-implied own-operations EV / FY2027F EBITDA5.3x————

WACC

InputValue
Risk-free rate: BB 10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-20269.3%
Raw beta vs DSEX (104 weekly returns)0.78
Beta used (Blume-adjusted, floor 0.7)0.85
Equity risk premium7.0%
Liquidity premium1.0%
Cost of equity16.2%
Pre-tax cost of debt (marginal)10.0%
Tax rate22.5%
After-tax cost of debt7.8%
Debt weight, D / (D + E)45.0%
WACC12.4%
Terminal growth (nominal BDT)6.0%
Return on new invested capital (terminal)11.0%

Sensitivity

Gridc1c2c3c4c5
Grid A: fair value per share (Tk); rows = BSRMSTEEL price, columns = holding discount 0% / 10% / 20% / 30% / 40%
BSRMSTEEL Tk 7098.195.492.689.987.1
BSRMSTEEL Tk 80102.098.995.892.689.5
BSRMSTEEL Tk 90.6106.2102.699.195.592.0
BSRMSTEEL Tk 100109.9106.0102.098.194.2
BSRMSTEEL Tk 110113.8109.5105.2100.996.5
Grid C: own-operations EV/EBITDA leg per share (Tk); rows = EV/EBITDA multiple, columns = mid-cycle margin 7.5% / 8.25% / 9.0% / 9.75% / 10.5%
4.5x33.346.860.373.987.4
5.0x48.363.378.493.4108.4
5.5x63.379.996.4112.9129.5
6.0x78.496.4114.4132.5150.5
6.5x93.4112.9132.5152.0171.5
Grid D: DCF leg per share (Tk); rows = WACC, columns = terminal growth 4% / 5% / 6% / 7% / 8%
WACC -2pp109.6113.7119.0126.5139.1
WACC -1pp80.280.279.878.475.6
WACC base57.955.852.748.040.6
WACC +1pp40.337.232.927.018.3
WACC +2pp26.222.617.811.52.8
Grid B: FY2027F group EPS (Tk); rows = scrap US$/t shock, columns = BDT/US$ shock -5% / 0 / +5% / +10% / +15% (recalculated model, values)
Scrap -15.0%30.1824.9119.6514.399.13
Scrap -7.5%27.3721.9916.6011.225.83
Scrap base24.5719.0613.558.042.53
Scrap +7.5%21.7616.1310.504.86-0.77
Scrap +15.0%18.9613.207.441.68-4.07
Scenarios (recalculated with selector 1 / 2 / 3; values): fair value | FY27F EPS | FY28F EPS | own ops Tk/share | stake Tk/share
Bear45.185.346.6612.5724.90
Base99.0919.0621.3762.9128.46
Bull140.1427.3829.58100.4132.02
Risk table: one driver changed, everything else base (recalculated; values): FY27F EPS | change | fair value | change
Scrap US$/t +15% in FY27 (60% passed into rod price, billet cost-plus)13.20-5.8697.44-1.65—
BDT 10% weaker vs US$ in FY27 (pass-through on costs; FX loss on Tk 31bn US$ UPAS)8.04-11.0288.74-10.35—
Rolled-product volume -10% vs base in FY27 (ADP stalls, share loss)16.53-2.5387.28-11.81—
Rod realisation -5% vs base in FY27, recovered in FY28 (price war)10.63-8.4385.88-13.20—
Energy cost/t +15% more in FY27 (second power/gas tariff rise)16.33-2.7293.21-5.88—
Interest rate +200bp on all borrowings FY27-29 (UPAS repriced to BDT)17.38-1.6896.91-2.18—
Billet sales to BSRM Steels -20% vs base in FY2719.380.3293.71-5.37—
BSRMSTEEL share price -20% (Tk 72.5)19.060.0093.39-5.69—
Opportunity: rolled-product volume +5% vs base in FY27 (ECNEC projects restart)20.321.26104.995.90—

Peers

MetricBSRMLTDBSRMSTEELGPHISPAT
Price 29-Oct-2026 (Tk)95.4090.6015.30
EPS FY2026 (Tk)23.5419.030.07
P/E4.1x4.8x218.6x
NAV per share (Tk)186.06106.3651.81
P/B0.5x0.9x0.3x
DPS FY2026 (Tk)5.506.00—

FAQ

What is BSRM Ltd's fair value range?
Tk 45-140 a share, base Tk 99: own operations Tk 62.9, the BSRM Steels stake Tk 28.5 after a 20% discount, BSRM Wires and BSRM HK Tk 7.7. The price on 29-Oct-2026 was Tk 95.4.
How are BSRM Ltd and BSRM Steels related?
BSRM Ltd owns 31.19% of BSRM Steels and sells it billet (Tk 36.9bn in FY2026); BSRM Steels owns 28.8m BSRM Ltd shares. Both are BSRM group companies.
Why does FY27 EPS fall?
Lower volume, higher power cost, an FX loss on the US$ trade loans and a lower BSRM Steels profit take EPS to Tk 19.06 from Tk 23.54.
Why sum of the parts?
The listed BSRM Steels stake is 29% of value and has its own market price, so it is valued separately from the mills.

Sources

  1. Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills Ltd, audited consolidated and separate financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2026 (Hussain Farhad & Co., 14-Oct-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. BSRM Ltd Integrated Annual Report 2024-25 (FY2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. BSRM Ltd un-audited consolidated statements, 9 months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  4. AnalystBro market data: DSE daily and weekly bars for BSRMLTD, BSRMSTEEL and DSEX to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction page (10-year cut-off 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026) and Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026 Table-102 (lending rate 12.13%) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. DSE news archive for BSRMLTD, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (dividends, quarterly results, BSRM Wires investment, CRISL rating) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. BSRM Steels Ltd audited financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. AnalystBro, BSRM Steels initiation and model (bsrmsteel-initiation-2026-10-30): volume, price, scrap, FX and energy drivers and scenario profits · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  9. GPH Ispat Ltd audited financial statements, year to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  10. The Business Standard, 'Rod prices jump Tk10,000 per tonne in 10 days, cement up Tk25 per bag', 12 Mar 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  11. The Daily Star, 'Rod price recovers as demand, scrap costs climb', 23 Jan 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  12. The Daily Star, 'Steelmakers squeezed by higher costs, weak demand', 3 Sep 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  13. The Daily Star, 'Steelmakers pin hopes on revival of govt projects', 11 Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  14. The Daily Star, 'Four steelmakers control 53% of the market: study' (BigMint), 19 May 2024 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  15. The Business Standard, 'Two BSRM listed firms post record Tk23,943cr revenue in FY26', 14 Oct 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  16. The Financial Express, 'Electricity prices hiked across the board', 4 Jun 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  17. Prothom Alo English, 'Power tariff rises by 16.68pc from June', 3 Jun 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  18. Prothom Alo English, 'ECNEC approves Gabtali-Dasherkandi metro rail project, 11 others worth Tk 1.69 trillion', 16 Sep 2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  19. AnalystBro model for BSRMLTD (model.xlsx, the workbook below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31

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