Bangladesh Shipping Corporation valuation report: fair value BDT 49.3–70.4 (Oct 2026)

Fair value range BDT 49–70 (base 60): a 7-ship state fleet earning 14% ROE against an 17% cost of equity

Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (DSE: BSC) is the state-owned national flag carrier for ocean cargo, listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. It operates under the Bangladesh Shipping Corporation Act 2017 and is controlled by the Ministry of Shipping; the government owns 52.10% of the 152.5mn shares [1 p.14]. BSC makes money in three ways. First, it time-charters its own ocean ships to international charterers and is paid a daily hire in US dollars. Second, it carries Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation's (BPC) imported crude oil from mother tankers anchored off Chattogram to Eastern Refinery, a job called lighterage, now mostly done with hired lighter tankers. Third, it collects a 2.5% address commission and a 5% service charge on foreign ships chartered to carry government cargo such as BPC fuel and BADC/BCIC fertiliser, a fee that exists because Bangladesh reserves government cargo for its flag carrier [1 p.78] [1 p.92].

On top of the shipping business BSC holds a large cash pile and a large government loan. At June 2025 it had BDT 17.9bn of FDRs and cash against a BDT 14.6bn Subsidiary Loan Agreement (SLA) loan that funded six 39,000 DWT ships bought under a 2016 Chinese government concessional credit [1 p.71] [1 p.88]. Interest income was BDT 1.70bn in FY2025, 45% of pre-tax profit of BDT 3.82bn [1 p.72] [1 p.93]. In FY2026 BSC spent BDT 9.5bn of that cash on two 55,000–66,000 DWT bulk carriers from China, MV Banglar Progoti and MV Banglar Nabojatra, bringing the fleet to seven ships [5 p.5] [5 p.16] [7]. Nine-month FY2026 EPS was BDT 13.11 against 14.38 a year earlier: more charter hire, less interest [5 p.3].

Our forecast builds each line from its driver: vessel-days times a time-charter equivalent (TCE) of US$16,000 a day times the taka rate for charter hire; BPC crude volumes for lighterage; government import volumes for service revenue; a 5% SLA rate on the declining loan; and the yield on remaining cash. That gives FY2026E EPS of BDT 17.13 and FY2027F of 17.67, rising to 22.10 by FY2031F [10]. Return on equity falls from 19.4% in FY2025 to 11.9% by FY2031F because BSC pays out only about 15% of profit and the retained cash earns a deposit rate that we fade to 7.2% [10].

We put fair value at BDT 49–70, base BDT 59.8 and probability-weighted 59.8, from a residual-income model (P/NAV justified by ROE, 60%) and franchise earnings times a distribution factor (40%), at a 16.7% cost of equity [10]. The share price of BDT 103.5 on 29-Oct-2026 [8] is above the whole range, 1.7 times the base: the market prices BSC near its book value (P/NAV 0.87x), which only makes sense if ROE sustainably matches the cost of equity. Our sustainable ROE of 11.9% sits inside BSC's own FY2019–FY2025 range of 2.1%–22.4% but well below its 17.4% median, which was set in the 2022–2025 freight and interest-rate peak. The latest period used is the nine months to 31-Mar-2026; FY2026 audited statements are not yet filed, and the model will be updated when they are.

BSC in charts: EPS rose from BDT 1.15 in FY2019 to 20.10 in FY2025 as freight, the taka and deposit rates all peaked

Seven years of filings show a company transformed by the six Chinese-built ships. In FY2019 and FY2020, before they arrived, BSC earned BDT 175mn and 415mn [4 p.79]. The new ships went on time charter from FY2021, and the 2021–2022 dry-bulk and tanker freight boom lifted revenue from BDT 2.74bn in FY2021 to 4.50bn in FY2022 and 5.15bn in FY2023 [3 p.75] [2 p.65]. From FY2023 the second engine was interest: BSC kept its operating cash in FDRs while Bangladesh's deposit rates rose, and other income reached BDT 2.07bn in FY2025 [1 p.93]. The taka's fall from about 86 to 120 per dollar over the same years raised the BDT value of dollar charter hire (labelled; we do not hold the BB exchange-rate series).

Seven ships, about 316,000 DWT: five from the 2016 Chinese-loan programme and two bulk carriers bought for US$76.7mn in cash

BSC's ocean fleet today is seven ships. Five remain from the six ships bought under the 2016 China–Bangladesh concessional credit of RMB 1.2bn (BDT 15.0bn): three product oil tankers and three bulk carriers of about 39,000 DWT each [1 p.88]. One of the bulk carriers, MV Banglar Samriddhi, was lost in 2022 and written off; its loan and depreciation adjustments went through retained earnings in FY2025 [1 p.96]. The directors' report lists the ships in service: MV Banglar Joyjatra, MV Banglar Arjan and three MT tankers including Banglar Agragoti, plus MV Banglar Progoti, which joined on 23-Oct-2025 [1 p.14]. MV Banglar Nabojatra followed in the third quarter of FY2026 [5 p.16]. The two newest ships are 55,000–66,000 DWT bulk carriers bought from Hellenic Dry Bulk Ventures for about US$76.7mn from BSC's own cash, approved by the board on 17-Sep-2025 [7] [1 p.96].

Two older lighterage tankers, MT Banglar Jyoti and MT Banglar Sourav, caught fire on 30-Sep-2024 and 5-Oct-2024 and the board decided to sell them in January 2025 [7]. BSC booked BDT 236.5mn of gains on selling old ships in FY2025 and insurance receipts of BDT 283.6mn (Banglar Agragoti hull and tank coating) and BDT 116.8mn (Banglar Sourav, 9M FY2026) [1 p.92] [1 p.93] [5 p.16]. Without its own lighter tankers BSC now hires them, which is why a lighter-tanker hire cost of BDT 749.9mn appeared in FY2025 [1 p.92]. Per-ship build years, DWT and charter employment are not tabulated in the pages we could read, so the fleet table below uses programme-level data; average age is marked n.a. and the range is widened accordingly (F28 rule).

What comes next is uncertain and government-driven. The Planning Commission has given primary approval to a six-container-ship project of 2,500–3,000 TEU each, costing about US$330mn and dependent on Korean EDCF finance; another six-container-ship initiative has been started [7]. Neither is funded, so neither is in our forecast. If the EDCF project goes ahead on concessional terms like the Chinese loan, it would roughly double the fleet's capital base; whether it adds value depends on the spread between the ships' charter return and BSC's cost of equity, which is the central problem with the current fleet too.

Government cargo and BPC crude gave BSC BDT 2.3bn of FY2025 revenue; the rest rides the global charter market

Bangladesh's seaborne trade is dominated by foreign ships; BSC's seven ships are a small part of the tonnage calling at Chattogram. Its edge is policy, not scale. Government agencies' cargo (fuel for BPC, fertiliser for BADC and BCIC, food grain) is reserved for Bangladesh-flag carriers, and when BSC does not carry it, the foreign ship chartered for it pays BSC a 2.5% address commission and a 5% service charge on the bill-of-lading value [1 p.78]. That service revenue was BDT 965.1mn in FY2025 (commission 487.6mn, service charge 477.5mn), up from 817.0mn in FY2023 [1 p.92] [2 p.65]. In 9M FY2026 it was BDT 713.3mn, up 3%, on more commission from BPC, BADC and BCIC cargo [5 p.16]. This fee needs no ships and almost no cost, so it is BSC's highest-margin line and depends only on government import volumes and the taka.

Lighterage is the second policy business. BPC's crude for Eastern Refinery arrives in large tankers that cannot berth at Chattogram, so BSC transfers the oil to smaller lighter tankers. Revenue was BDT 1,316.7mn in FY2025, up from 1,035.0mn, on more trips and the taka [1 p.92], but fell 16% to 808.9mn in 9M FY2026 [5 p.16]. Since BSC's own lighter tankers burned in 2024 it hires them: hire costs took 57% of lighterage revenue in FY2025 and 71% in 9M FY2026 [1 p.92] [5 p.16]. So lighterage is now a thin-margin brokerage on government crude volumes, exposed to any change in how BPC discharges crude at Chattogram. We model volume flat with 3% tariff growth and a 65% hire ratio; the bear case cuts government cargo revenue 15% for two years.

The ocean fleet sells into the global time-charter market, where rates for Supramax/Ultramax bulk carriers and medium-range product tankers swing with Chinese commodity demand, ton-miles and fleet supply. We do not hold freight-index data (Baltic Supramax or MR tanker rates are not in our sources), so we anchor on BSC's own realised hire: about US$16,100 per vessel-day in FY2025 and about US$16,150 in Q3 FY2026 (derived from revenue over 6.5 ship-equivalents, as Banglar Nabojatra joined mid-quarter, 95% availability and an assumed BDT 120–122 per dollar) [1 p.92] [5 p.16]. The 9M FY2026 directors' note credits higher international freight rates for the second-quarter rise in revenue [7]. Our base keeps US$16,000 flat as a mid-cycle level; bear and bull move it 25% for two years and fade back.

How big is BSC in its own market? Bangladesh imports most of its crude, refined fuel, fertiliser, grain and industrial raw materials by sea, and almost all of it moves on foreign-flagged ships; BSC's seven ships of about 316,000 DWT in total could carry only a small share even if all were deployed on Bangladesh routes. They are not: the time-charter ships trade worldwide for international charterers, earning market hire, while BSC's Bangladesh-specific earnings come from the reserved-cargo fees and lighterage. This split matters for forecasting. The charter line follows the global cycle and the taka; the fee and lighterage lines follow government import volumes and BPC's operating choices. In FY2025 the two halves were roughly 57% and 39% of revenue, with insurance claims making up the rest [1 p.92]. A forecast that applied one growth rate to all of BSC's revenue would miss that the halves can move in opposite directions, as they did in 9M FY2026, when charter hire rose 13% and lighterage fell 16% [5 p.16].

Competition for BSC's charter ships is the global fleet of Supramax/Ultramax bulk carriers and MR product tankers, which BSC cannot influence; its competitive question is only whether its ships are on hire and at what rate. Competition for its reserved-cargo fees is regulatory: the fee exists as long as the flag-protection rules require foreign carriers of government cargo to pay it, and as long as government agencies route cargo through BSC's chartering desk. If private Bangladeshi ship-owners expand their ocean fleets (we hold no fleet statistics to measure this), that could in time reduce the share of government cargo that needs a waiver and therefore the commission base. We treat that as part of the government-cargo bear case rather than a separate line.

Interest was 45% of FY2025 pre-tax profit; in FY2027F charter hire takes over as cash falls to BDT 10.1bn

BSC's FY2025 profit and loss shows the two businesses. Operating profit after administration was BDT 2,481.8mn: revenue 5,909.8mn less vessel running costs 1,639.4mn, lighter-tanker hire 749.9mn, depreciation 431.4mn and overheads 607.3mn [1 p.72] [1 p.92] [1 p.93]. Other income of 2,072.9mn added interest on FDRs (1,604.9mn) and short-notice deposits (97.5mn), rent from BSC's Dhaka building (88.0mn) and the one-off ship-sale gain (236.5mn) [1 p.93]. Financial expenses were 734.7mn, almost all interest on the Chinese-ship SLA loan [1 p.93]. Pre-tax profit was BDT 3,820.1mn and tax 754.5mn (19.8%) [1 p.72].

Ship running costs are crew salaries and allowances, bunkers and lubricants, insurance, deck and engine stores, repairs and surveys, port dues and victualling. In Q3 FY2026 they were BDT 414.1mn for seven ships, or BDT 236.6mn a ship-year (about US$5,300 a day) [5 p.16]. Against a gross hire of about US$16,000 a day that leaves a healthy operating margin per ship before depreciation. We grow running costs 6% a year for wages, insurance and dollar-priced spares. Depreciation jumps with the new ships: BDT 575mn in FY2026E and 693mn in FY2027F, at 2.5% of gross cost, in line with the Q3 run-rate [5 p.6].

The bigger change is in other income. BSC used about BDT 9.5bn of FDRs to pay for the two ships, so cash and FDRs fell from BDT 17.9bn at June 2025 to 9.9bn at March 2026 [1 p.71] [5 p.2]. Q3 FY2026 other income was BDT 255.1mn against 645.0mn a year earlier [5 p.3]. We forecast interest income of BDT 859mn in FY2027F, at an 8.5% yield on opening cash, against 1,703.1mn in FY2025 [10]. The two ships add roughly BDT 1,394mn of hire a year in FY2027F before their running costs and depreciation [10]. At today's yields, swapping deposits for ships is close to neutral for EPS; the bet is that ships earn more than FDRs over their 25-year lives, and that the taka keeps weakening.

The quarterly pattern confirms the swap. In the third quarter of FY2025, before the new ships, time-charter hire was BDT 674.7mn and lighterage 349.5mn [6 p.16]; in the third quarter of FY2026 hire was 1,095.4mn and lighterage 185.9mn [5 p.16]. Ship running costs in the quarter (excluding hire and depreciation) rose 12% to BDT 414.1mn from 369.2mn with two extra crews, partly offset by lower port dues and repair bills, while depreciation rose from 100.8mn to 160.4mn as the new ships started to depreciate [6 p.16] [5 p.16]. Operating profit for the quarter rose 48% to BDT 867.7mn (including a BDT 116.8mn insurance claim) but other income fell 60%, and quarterly EPS fell to BDT 4.18 from 4.95 [5 p.3]. A full year of seven ships in FY2027F is what lifts our EPS back above the FY2026E level once interest income has reset.

Net cash of BDT 3.3bn in June 2025 turns to net debt of BDT 3.3bn after the ship purchase; the SLA loan costs 5%

The balance sheet is simple: ships, cash and a government loan. At 30-Jun-2025 BSC had property, plant and equipment of BDT 15,046.9mn, FDRs of 16,017.5mn and cash of 1,880.6mn against long-term loans of 14,563.2mn including the current portion, and equity of 15,991.5mn (NAV BDT 104.84 a share) [1 p.71]. By 31-Mar-2026 PPE had risen to BDT 24,235.2mn including capital work in progress, FDRs had fallen to 8,869.3mn, cash to 1,067.7mn and equity was 17,610.4mn (NAV 115.45) [5 p.2].

The loan is the SLA signed on 27-Oct-2024 with retrospective effect from October 2016: the government on-lends the Chinese credit to BSC at 5%, assessed at BDT 14,576.8mn [1 p.88]. Signing it created BDT 4,752.5mn of interest for 2016–2024, of which 2,225.9mn had already been provided; BDT 163.8mn was charged in FY2025 and BDT 2,362.9mn went straight to retained earnings as a prior-year adjustment, which the auditors highlighted as an emphasis of matter [1 p.66] [1 p.88] [1 p.96]. BSC repaid BDT 4.75bn of interest-free and concessional loans from older projects in November 2024 [7]. The SLA principal now amortises at about BDT 1.12bn a year (560.6mn each half) [5 p.5], which we run off to BDT 7.8bn by FY2031F [10]. A separate BDT 536.0mn 1979 OECF loan carries no interest since 2009–10 while the government considers converting it to equity [1 p.88].

At 5%, the SLA is cheap money: Bangladeshi banks' average lending rate was 12.13% in FY2025–26 [9]. Its cheapness is part of what the government gives the corporation, and its cost is fixed in taka, so taka depreciation widens the gap between dollar charter income and the loan cost. Interest cover (EBIT over financial expenses) was 3.4x in FY2025 and is 4.6x in FY2027F [10]. With no new ships in the base, cash rebuilds to BDT 19.8bn by FY2031F and BSC returns to net cash in FY2029F [10].

Core EPS was BDT 17.40 in FY2025, 13% below the reported 20.10 after ship-sale gains and insurance claims

Reported FY2025 EPS of BDT 20.10 includes three items that will not recur: BDT 236.5mn of gains on selling the fire-damaged tankers, BDT 283.6mn of insurance claims booked as other operating receipts, and BDT 22.0mn of exchange gain [1 p.92] [1 p.93]. After tax at 20% these are worth about BDT 2.84 a share, so core EPS was about BDT 17.25 [10]. In 9M FY2026 another BDT 116.8mn insurance claim (Banglar Sourav) is in revenue [5 p.16]; our FY2026E core EPS is BDT 16.52 against reported 17.13 [10].

The second quality issue is how the SLA was booked. The 2016–2024 interest that BSC did not provide for until the SLA was signed went to retained earnings, not the profit and loss account: BDT 2,362.9mn in FY2025 [1 p.96]. Had it been charged through profit over the years, BSC's reported profits for FY2017–FY2024 would have been lower. The auditors kept an unmodified opinion with an emphasis of matter [1 p.66]. Equity therefore grew only BDT 437.8mn in FY2025 despite BDT 3,065.6mn of profit [1 p.71].

Cash conversion is uneven. Net operating cash flow was BDT 31.08 a share in FY2024 but 11.96 in FY2025, when BSC paid BDT 3.63bn of accumulated SLA interest [1 p.74]. 9M FY2026 NOCF was BDT 16.80 a share, above EPS of 13.11 [5 p.5]. Governance follows the state-corporation model: the managing director is a serving naval officer appointed by government order (Commodore Fazlar Rahman from 10-Aug-2026) [7], the board approves ship purchases but they then go to the Advisory Committee on Government Procurement [7], and dividends to the state are paid through treasury challan [1 p.92]. The payout has been 25% of face value (BDT 2.50) for FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025, only 12–16% of EPS [1 p.91] [7].

Capital actions over the last 24 months were limited to cash dividends of 25% for FY2024 and FY2025 and a December 2025 auditor's report on the use of proceeds from BSC's earlier repeat public offering [7]. There were no rights issues, bonus shares, bonds or changes to authorised capital (BDT 10bn against BDT 1.53bn paid up) [1 p.64]. Under BSEC's directive, unclaimed dividends move to the Capital Market Stabilization Fund, which BSC is doing for FY2021–FY2022 balances [1 p.92]; no sector regulator caps BSC's payout. The government, as majority owner, decides the payout in practice, and the Finance Division's need for dividend income from state enterprises is a reason it could rise. We keep 15%, the three-year median, and show 40% as an opportunity.

We forecast EPS of BDT 17.67 in FY2027F on 7 ships at US$16,000 a day, 8.5% deposit yields and BDT 126 per dollar

FY2026E (to 30-Jun-2026) is nine reported months plus a fourth quarter built from third-quarter run-rates: seven ships on hire for 91 days at 95% availability and US$16,000 a day (BDT 1,181mn vs Q3's 1,095mn with one ship for half the quarter), lighterage of BDT 185.9mn and service fees of 237.5mn as in Q3, ship running costs of 414.1mn, depreciation of 169mn, overheads of 198.4mn, other income of 255.1mn and financial expenses of 180.2mn [5 p.3] [5 p.16] [10]. That gives fourth-quarter EPS of BDT 4.02 and FY2026E EPS of 17.13, against 4.18 in Q3 and 5.72 in the fourth quarter of FY2025, which carried year-end insurance and ship-sale gains. No FY2026 EPS has been announced on DSE, so there is no residual line; the model will be updated when the annual is filed.

From FY2027F, time-charter revenue is seven ships times 347 on-hire days times US$16,000 times the taka rate, which we take from BDT 122 in FY2026 with 3% a year depreciation, to BDT 4.9bn [10]. Lighterage grows 3% a year from its FY2026E level of BDT 994.8mn and service fees 5% a year; hire costs are 65% of lighterage. Ship running costs grow 6% a year per ship and depreciation is 2.5% of gross fleet cost. Interest income is the yield on opening cash: 8.5% in FY2027F, fading to 7.2% (the scheduled banks' 6.21% deposit rate [9] plus 100bp) by FY2031F. The SLA loan amortises BDT 1.12bn a year at 5%. Tax is 20%, the 9M FY2026 effective rate [5 p.3]. Payout is 15%.

The result is flat-to-rising EPS: BDT 17.67 in FY2027F, 18.68 in FY2028F and 22.10 in FY2031F [10]. Net profit grows as cash rebuilds and the loan shrinks, but equity grows faster because 85% of profit is retained, so ROE slides from 15.3% to 11.3%. Compared with the business's own record, our FY2027F EBIT margin of 44.4% is below FY2025's 42.0% (the new ships' depreciation and running costs come before a full year of hire), and the ROE path stays within the FY2020–FY2025 range of 4.9%–22.3%.

Fair value range BDT 49–70: residual income implies 0.54x P/NAV because ROE of 12% is below the 17% cost of equity

The F28 format values a ship-owner on price to net asset value. We do not have broker valuations of BSC's ships, so we cannot mark the fleet to market; two of the seven ships were bought in FY2026 at market prices and the other five sit at depreciated cost, so book NAV is our asset anchor: BDT 119.5 a share at June 2026E [10]. What a buyer should pay for that NAV depends on the return it earns. Our primary method is therefore residual income, which is P/NAV justified by ROE: book value plus the present value of profit above the cost of equity. Sum of the parts does not apply (one business, no listed subsidiaries or associates).

Cost of equity is 16.7%: the 10-year Treasury bond cut-off of 9.268% on 25-Oct-2026 [9] plus a beta of 1.06 times a 7.0% equity risk premium. Beta is unstable for BSC. The two-year weekly beta against the DSEX is 1.515 (R² 0.27), but it rests on the October–November 2024 rally from BDT 59 to 100; we therefore use the last 52 weeks, which exclude it: 1.086 raw (R² 0.52), Blume-adjusted to 1.06. The 0.6 floor in our general rule does not bind and F28 sets no band [8]. Each 0.1 of beta moves the cost of equity by 0.7pp; the two-year beta would give a cost of equity of 18.7%, about 2.7pp higher, and the Ke rows of the grid below show the effect (±1pp and ±2pp). A state-owned discount is not added on top: the low payout is captured in the cash flows instead.

Residual income: FY2027F–FY2031F profit less 16.7% on opening book is negative every year, from BDT -343mn to -1,347mn, because ROE is 11.3–13.9%. The terminal value applies (ROE − g)/(Ke − g) to FY2031F book with sustainable ROE 11.9% and g of 5% (3% taka depreciation on dollar hire plus 2% real; the fleet grows only with government-approved programmes); this is the same as assuming a payout of 1 − g/ROE = 58% in the terminal. Value at June 2026 is BDT 9.9bn, 0.54x book, BDT 68.3 a share after rolling forward to October 2026 [10].

Franchise earnings with a distribution factor: BSC is cash-rich and pays out only 15%, so we value FY2027F core EPS of BDT 17.67 with zero growth, times a distribution factor of 0.44 = 15% payout + 85% retention x the 7.2% terminal cash yield after 20% tax / 16.7%. That gives BDT 47.0 [10]. The legs differ by BDT 21.3: the residual-income terminal assumes BSC eventually pays out 58% and grows 5%, while the franchise leg assumes today's 15% payout forever and no growth. We weight residual income 60% because it carries the full forecast and book, and the franchise leg 40% as the cash-hoarding check. The blend is BDT 59.8.

Implied multiples at the base: 3.4x FY2027F EPS, 0.50x June 2026E NAV, 3.3x FY2027F EV/EBITDA and a 4.4% dividend yield; EV per DWT of BDT 39,423 [10]. The market price of BDT 103.5 is 0.87x NAV and 5.1x EV/EBITDA. At June closes FY2021–FY2025 BSC traded at 0.7–1.7x book (pre-floor FY2021 0.75x) [8]. To justify a value near NAV, BSC would need ROE near the cost of equity: roughly 17% sustained, the level it reached only in the FY2022–FY2025 peak. Our sensitivity grid shows that even TCE 30% higher and deposit yields 200bp higher in every year give BDT 110, still below the price.

How do these inputs compare with BSC's history? ROE was 4.9% in FY2020 and 8.1% in FY2021, before the freight boom; 22.3%, 20.3%, 17.4% and 19.4% from FY2022 to FY2025, when freight, deposit rates near 10% and a falling taka all helped at once [10]. The FY2025 figure includes about BDT 433mn of after-tax one-offs. Our sustainable ROE of 11.9% is below the seven-year median of 17.4% because we do not assume that all three tailwinds persist: we hold TCE at the Q3 FY2026 level rather than the FY2025 average, fade deposit yields to 7.2%, and let retained cash dilute returns. The bull case, with higher freight and yields for two years, still ends at 11.3%, because the same retention drags returns back. Historical P/E at June closes was 4.5–9.6x (FY2021–FY2025) [8]; we do not use a historical multiple as a valuation leg because those years include the 2022–2023 floor-price period and peak earnings.

A stable taka would cut fair value 21% and a freight slump 16%; watch charter renewals and FDR rates

Each risk below moves a line in the model, and we re-run the whole model to measure it [10]. Freight: if TCE falls 30% in FY2027–FY2028 and recovers by FY2030, charter hire falls by about BDT 1,464mn in FY2027F, FY2027F EPS drops to BDT 9.99 and fair value to 50.1. Deposit rates: Bangladesh Bank's easing cycle could take FDR yields 200bp below our path in every year, cutting interest income by about BDT 202mn in FY2027F and fair value to 50.0. FX: our base assumes the taka weakens 3% a year, raising dollar hire against a taka loan; with a stable taka fair value falls to 47.1.

Government cargo: lighterage revenue already fell 16% in 9M FY2026 [5 p.16]. If BPC's crude lighterage halves permanently, lighterage revenue falls by half and hire costs with it, cutting fair value to BDT 55.3; the small net margin limits the damage. A 30% permanent cut in address commission and service charges, which carry almost no cost, would cut fair value to 51.3. Costs: 15% higher ship running costs would take fair value to 52.9. Funding: a reset of the SLA rate to 8% from FY2027 would take it to 53.3. The opportunity is the payout: at 40% instead of 15%, less cash is trapped at deposit rates and fair value rises to 74.9.

Other risks that do not move our numbers until they happen: a ship casualty (BSC has lost Banglar Samriddhi and had two tanker fires since 2022; insurance covered part) [1 p.92] [1 p.96]; government direction of capital, such as funding the container-ship projects from BSC's own cash at low returns [7]; and governance under rotating naval managing directors [7]. A stacked stress (TCE 30% down, yields 200bp down and government cargo 25% down in every year, with no recovery) gives BDT 10.7, outside the range; equity cannot go below zero, and BSC's NAV and positive cash flows keep the stress above zero.

The ranking matters for investors. The two largest single risks, the taka and freight, are outside the company's control and partly offset each other: a global freight downturn often coincides with a stronger dollar. Deposit yields depend on Bangladesh Bank's policy path; the call-money rate was 9.24% and 91-day bills 8.56% in late October 2026 [9], so the 8.5% FY2027F yield in our base is consistent with today's money market, but our fade to 7.2% assumes easing continues. The government-cargo risks are policy risks: the cargo-reservation fee and lighterage contracts could change with a single ministry decision, which is why we include them in the bear case even though they have grown steadily in the past three years.

What to watch: five signposts to June 2027

• Charter hire per quarter: above BDT 1.2bn means TCE above our US$16,000; below 0.95bn means the bear (Q3 FY2026: 1,095.4mn with 6.5 ships [5 p.16]).
• Other income per quarter: our FY2027F interest of BDT 859mn is about 215mn a quarter (Q3 FY2026 other income 255.1mn [5 p.3]).
• Lighterage revenue: a third quarter below BDT 200mn (Q3 FY2026 185.9mn) points to a structural shift in BPC crude handling.
• Dividend for FY2026 (November 2026): anything above BDT 2.50 (25%) signals a move away from cash hoarding, our main upside lever.
• Capital projects: an EDCF loan agreement for container ships would add debt and capex outside our base.

Appendix: statements, quarters, ratios and the model

Ratio definitions: EBIT = revenue less ship running costs, lighter hire, depreciation and overheads (reported operating profit less administrative expenses). TCE = time-charter revenue / vessel-days on hire (95% availability assumed). ROE = net profit / average equity. Core EPS excludes ship-sale gains, insurance claims in revenue and FX gains, after 20% tax. Net cash = cash and FDRs less government loans. Payout = DPS / EPS. History FY2019–FY2020 shows profit and equity only (AR2020 note 33–34); FY2021–FY2023 show reported totals; line-item splits start in FY2024.

Forecast track record: this is our first report on BSC; future updates will show the FY2026E and FY2027F forecasts against reported results.

FAQ

How does Bangladesh Shipping Corporation make money?

It time-charters its own seven ocean ships for US-dollar hire, carries BPC's crude oil by lighterage at Chattogram, and collects commissions and service charges on foreign ships chartered for government cargo. It also earns interest on its FDRs.

What did BSC earn in FY2025 and 9M FY2026?

FY2025 EPS was BDT 20.10, including about BDT 2.84 of ship-sale gains, insurance claims and FX gains; nine-month FY2026 EPS was BDT 13.11 against 14.38. We forecast BDT 17.13 for FY2026E and 17.67 for FY2027F.

What are the two new ships?

MV Banglar Progoti and MV Banglar Nabojatra, 55,000–66,000 DWT bulk carriers bought for about US$76.7mn from BSC's own funds in FY2026.

What is the SLA loan?

The government on-lends the 2016 Chinese concessional credit for the six ships to BSC at 5% under a Subsidiary Loan Agreement signed in October 2024; BDT 14.0bn was outstanding in March 2026.

What is BSC's fair value range?

BDT 49–70, base BDT 59.8, probability-weighted 59.8, at a 16.7% cost of equity. The BDT 103.5 price is above the range.

Why is fair value below book value?

Forecast ROE of 11–14% is below the 16.7% cost of equity and BSC retains about 85% of profit in deposits, so each taka of book earns less than shareholders require.

Sources

1. Bangladesh Shipping Corporation Yearly Business Report 2024-25 (audited statements to 30-Jun-2025, notes, auditors' report) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. Bangladesh Shipping Corporation Annual Report 2023-24 (statements to 30-Jun-2024 with FY2023 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Bangladesh Shipping Corporation Annual Report 2021-22 (statements to 30-Jun-2022 with FY2021 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. Bangladesh Shipping Corporation Annual Report 2019-20 (statements to 30-Jun-2020 with FY2019 comparatives) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. BSC un-audited Q3 financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. BSC un-audited Q3 financial statements, nine months to 31-Mar-2025 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. DSE announcements for BSC, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (quarterly EPS, FY2025 dividend, ship purchases, vessel sales, container-ship project, MD appointment) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. AnalystBro market data: DSE:BSC weekly and monthly bars, DSEX weekly bars (chart_bars), to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
9. Bangladesh Bank treasury auction cut-off yields (10-year BGTB 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026) and scheduled banks' weighted-average deposit rate 6.21% (FY2025-26) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
10. AnalystBro BSC model (model.xlsx): forecasts, valuation, scenarios, sensitivities · link · accessed 2026-10-31