Berger Paints Bangladesh valuation report: fair value BDT 509–1,571 (Oct 2026)

Berger Paints: 10% annual growth and a 24% ROE support BDT 509–1571 a share

Fair value BDT 509–1571; base 1129, probability-weighted 1,084. Price BDT 1,449 on 29-Oct-2026. Price rises lifted H1 FY2027 EPS to BDT 52.79; the BDT 11.84bn Mirsarai plant, TiO2 and solvent costs, the taka and supplementary duty decide FY2028–29.

Company · Initiation · 29 Oct 2026 · FY2026 annual (to 31-Mar-2026) + Q1 FY2027 interim (to 30-Jun-2026); Q2 FY2027 EPS from DSE · By AnalystBro Team · 24 min read

For information only, not investment advice. AnalystBro accepts no responsibility for decisions made on it. Full disclaimer.

Fair value range
৳509–1,571
Base ৳1,129 · price in the upper half of the range · probability-weighted ৳1,084
Price ৳1,449.00
2026-10-29
Uncertainty: Medium
Bear ৳509Base ৳1,129Bull ৳1,571Price ৳1,449.00

DCF (Ke = WACC 13.8%, g 7.0%, RONIC 23.2%) 50% · justified forward P/E 10.3x on next-12-month core EPS 30% · dividend discount 20%

  • Operating business৳1,029
  • Net cash Mar-2026৳100
Price (29-Oct-2026)BDT 1,449.0
52-week rangeBDT 1,335.9–1,550.5
Market capBDT 71.2bn
Shares49.11m (after the Aug-2025 1:17 rights issue)
ParentJ&N Investments (Asia) Ltd 89.72% (Berger Paints India group); free float ~10%
ManagementMohsin Habib Chowdhury CEO & MD from 1-Aug-2026 (was COO)
Fiscal year end31 March (FY2026 = Apr-2025 to Mar-2026)
Latest period usedFY2026 annual + H1 FY2027 interim (to 30-Sep-2026)
Average daily trading (Oct-2026)~1,000–9,000 shares (BDT 1–13m)
EPS FY2026 (consolidated)BDT 76.83 (FY2025: 71.20 restated)
H1 FY2027 (to Sep-2026)Revenue BDT 15.18bn (+13.8%), EPS BDT 52.79 (31.14), incl. ~BDT 4.5 one-off tax credit
NAV per shareBDT 400.52 (30-Sep-2026)
Dividend FY2026525% cash (BDT 52.50), 68% of consolidated EPS
Trailing P/E / P/B (FY2026)18.9x / 3.62x
Dividend yield (FY2026 DPS)3.6%
Net cash Mar-2026BDT 4.90bn (BDT 100 a share)
Market share~54%, BPMA figure reported by The Daily Star (Feb-2025)
Liquid paint sold FY2026110,264 KL (+2.4%)
Royalty to parent1% of licensed-brand sales; 0.47% of revenue
Beta (2-yr weekly vs DSEX)0.29 raw, 0.52 Blume; 0.60 used (floor)
Credit ratingAAA / ST-1, stable (CRAB, Sep-2026)
Estimates
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Revenue (BDT mn)26,25128,52529,27033,42136,63540,339
Revenue growth—8.7%2.6%14.2%9.6%10.1%
Liquid paint sold (KL)101,843107,632110,264115,777122,724130,087
Gross margin32.3%31.9%32.6%33.8%35.4%34.6%
EBITDA (BDT mn)—5,2765,8697,0948,3209,235
Core net profit (BDT mn)3,2433,3703,7204,7505,5315,476
Core EPS (BDT)68.5271.2076.8396.74112.64111.50
DPS (BDT)50.052.552.565.876.675.8
P/E on core EPS at BDT 1,44921.1x20.4x18.9x15.0x12.9x13.0x
ROE—22.6%21.2%22.8%23.8%21.7%
Net cash per share (BDT)142.2104.199.847.415.359.0

Berger Paints Bangladesh: BDT 509–1571 a share, hinging on margins and the Mirsarai plant

Berger Paints Bangladesh Limited (DSE: BERGERPBL) is the country's largest paint maker [1 p.22]. The paint makers' association (BPMA), as reported by The Daily Star, puts its share at about 54% of a roughly Tk 6,250 crore (BDT 62.5bn) market, against Asian Paints at 16% and Nippon Paint at 8% [12]; this is a single outlet and we treat it as approximate. It sold 110,264 kilolitres of liquid paint and 38,247 tonnes of putty, powder and other non-liquid products in FY2026 (year to 31-Mar-2026), for consolidated revenue of BDT 29.3bn and net profit of BDT 3.72bn [1 p.56] [1 p.66]. The parent, J&N Investments (Asia), a Berger Paints India group company, owns 89.72% [1 p.30].

Our view in five points. (1) Demand: decorative paint follows housing, real estate and construction. Cement sales, the best public proxy, recovered about 5% in 2025 to roughly 40 million tonnes after a three-year slump [13] [14], and Berger's own liquid volume grew 5.7% in FY2025 and 2.4% in FY2026. We forecast liquid volume growth of 5% in FY2027 rising to 7% by FY2031 once the third factory adds capacity. (2) Price and mix: gross price per litre rose 4.3% in FY2026 and the company made 'strategic price adjustments' in 2026 to cover raw-material and packaging costs [9] [10]; we assume +10% in FY2027, +4% in FY2028, then 4.5%. (3) Costs: 77% of the material bill is imported (TiO2 and other pigments, resins, solvents, additives) [1 p.57], so the US$ input basket and the taka drive gross margin, which ranged from 29.2% to 39.8% over FY2020–26. (4) Capacity and cash: the Mirsarai third factory now costs BDT 11.84bn and starts in April 2028 [9]; it consumes the cash pile in FY2027–28 and nearly doubles depreciation from FY2029. (5) Valuation: at a 13.8% cost of equity our DCF, justified P/E and dividend model give BDT 509–1571; base 1129, probability-weighted 1,084. Management: COO Mohsin Habib Chowdhury became CEO and Managing Director on 1-Aug-2026, succeeding Rupali Haque Chowdhury [1 p.21] [9].

Exhibit 1BERGERPBL has underperformed the DSEX by 17pp over two years, mostly at the June-2025 rights ex-date
Index, week of 6-Oct-2024 = 100
025.050.075.0100125w0w12w24w36w48w60w72w84w96w105Rights ex-date Jun-2025
BERGERPBLDSEX
Data
w0w4w8w12w16w20w24w28w32w36w40w44w48w52w56w60w64w68w72w76w80w84w88w92w96w100w104w105
BERGERPBL100.00100.90100.90103.80103.50102.30102.20101.5099.6087.7088.9084.2081.0080.7080.9079.4079.7082.3080.5079.3078.4078.8081.1085.5085.1083.4083.1082.50
DSEX100.0098.1095.8095.9094.3096.8096.3090.7085.5090.30100.40101.8099.9095.0089.8089.1091.5099.6099.0097.0096.50101.00105.90108.70104.30102.90100.5099.90
Source: Weekly closes [16] · The 11% drop in the week of 29-Jun-2025 is the 1:17 rights issue at BDT 1,110 going ex-entitlement, not a change in the business.
Exhibit 2We forecast core EPS of BDT 97 in FY2027F and BDT 113 in FY2028F, up from BDT 76.83
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Revenue (BDT mn)26,25128,52529,27033,42136,63540,339
Revenue growth—8.7%2.6%14.2%9.6%10.1%
Liquid paint sold (KL)101,843107,632110,264115,777122,724130,087
Gross margin32.3%31.9%32.6%33.8%35.4%34.6%
EBITDA (BDT mn)—5,2765,8697,0948,3209,235
Core net profit (BDT mn)3,2433,3703,7204,7505,5315,476
Core EPS (BDT)68.5271.2076.8396.74112.64111.50
DPS (BDT)50.052.552.565.876.675.8
P/E on core EPS at BDT 1,44921.1x20.4x18.9x15.0x12.9x13.0x
ROE—22.6%21.2%22.8%23.8%21.7%
Net cash per share (BDT)142.2104.199.847.415.359.0
Source: Model [19]; actuals [1 p.66] [3 p.116]

Bulls say

  • Market leadership (about 54% per BPMA, reported by The Daily Star), 28 Experience Zones and the Berger name let it pass cost increases on: Q1 FY2027 gross margin was 38.1% after the 2026 price rises [2 p.6].
  • Per-capita paint use of about 1.4 kg vs India's 3 kg leaves years of volume growth [12]; the bull case (volume 7–9%, cheaper inputs, SD cut to 4%) gives BDT 1571.
  • Net cash, a AAA rating and 70% payouts make it one of the DSE's most dependable dividend payers.

Bears say

  • Volume has barely grown since FY2023 (106,464 KL → 110,264 KL); Asian Paints, Nippon, Elite and RAK are adding capacity and promotions.
  • Supplementary duty on paint supply reportedly doubled to 10% in 2025 [12] and VAT plus SD now take 20.2% of sales after discounts [1 p.56].
  • The plant budget rose 46% in a year (BDT 8.13bn → 11.84bn) and slipped a year; the bear case (weak volume, costlier inputs, taka 6% weaker, SD 6.5%) gives BDT 509.

Key debate

Is the 38% Q1 FY2027 gross margin a new level or a lag between price rises and costs? Our base case uses 33.8% for FY2027 and 35.4% for FY2028, near the middle of the six-year 29–40% range.

The Berger India group owns 89.7%; paints are 98% of revenue and five group companies add tins, IT and coatings

Berger has operated in Bangladesh for almost fifty years and listed on the DSE and CSE in December 2005 [1 p.67]. It makes decorative coatings, industrial and protective coatings, marine paint (with Chugoku Marine Paints of Japan), powder coatings, adhesives, wood coatings, vehicle refinishes, textile emulsions, construction chemicals and printing ink, from two factories (Chattogram and Dhaka) with fourteen sales offices and 28 Berger Experience Zones [1 p.22]. The annual report does not split revenue into decorative and industrial; the notes split it by liquid (litres) and non-liquid (kilograms) products, which we use instead [1 p.56].

Group. Jenson & Nicholson (Bangladesh) (100%) makes tin containers for paint, food and lubricants (revenue BDT 1.35bn in FY2026, mostly sold to Berger) [1 p.85]; Berger Tech Consulting (100%) sells IT services (BDT 76m) [1 p.88]; Jenson & Nicholson Packaging (51% plus 49% via J&N) was set up in Dec-2025 to make packaging beside the Mirsarai plant [1 p.67]. Berger Becker Bangladesh (49%, coil coatings) and Berger Fosroc (50%, construction chemicals) are equity-accounted and earned the group BDT 107m in FY2026 [1 p.66]. None is ≥10% of revenue, profit or value, so we use one consolidated valuation; sum of the parts is not used because no part is material or separately listed.

Royalty. Berger pays the parent a royalty of 1.00% of net sales of licensed brands (Robbialac, Colorizer, Apexior, Protect and others): BDT 135.9m in FY2026, 0.47% of revenue including technical fees [1 p.77] [1 p.58]. The royalty payable fell from BDT 566m at Mar-2024 to BDT 136m once delayed remittances were cleared [3 p.115] [1 p.65].

Exhibit 3Consolidated revenue of BDT 29.3bn: the Berger Paints company supplies 98%
FY2025AFY2026AShare FY2026
Berger Paints Bangladesh (standalone)28,01128,7391
Subsidiaries' external sales (J&N, Berger Tech)5145300
Consolidated revenue28,52529,2701
Associates' profit share (Becker 49%, Fosroc 50%)86107—
Source: [1 p.43] [1 p.66] [1 p.85] · Share column is a fraction of consolidated revenue.
Exhibit 4J&N Investments (Asia) holds 89.72% after renouncing its rights to lift the free float to 10%
SharesHolding
J&N Investments (Asia) Ltd (parent)44,058,7401
Institutions holding >100,000 shares (8)2,848,6680
Other public and institutions2,198,7590
Total49,105,9911
Source: [1 p.30]

Bangladesh paint demand follows construction, which grew about 5% in 2025 after a three-year slump

Market size and share. As reported by The Daily Star citing the BPMA, the Bangladesh paint market is about Tk 6,250 crore, with Berger at 54%, Asian Paints 16% and Nippon Paint 8%, and 33 local brands including Elite, RAK and Dulux (ACI) sharing the rest [12]. The same article splits the market into decorative Tk 5,450 crore and industrial Tk 80 crore, which adds to Tk 5,530 crore, not 6,250: the figures are approximate and we use only the Tk 6,250 crore total, as context. Berger's FY2026 standalone revenue of BDT 28.7bn is about 46% of the BDT 62.5bn figure, consistent with a share near 50% at retail prices before VAT and SD.

Demand. Paint follows the building cycle: new homes and repainting (decorative), factories and infrastructure (industrial, marine, protective). The industry 'had negative growth in 2024' as real estate slowed, inflation stayed above 9% and LC restrictions held up raw-material imports [12]. Cement, which moves with the same projects, sold about 39.75 million tonnes in 2025, up about 5% after a three-year slump [13] [14]. Berger's directors describe the industry as 'gradually recovering', with slow infrastructure spending and high material costs still holding back real estate [1 p.19]. Per-capita use is about 1.4 kg against 3 kg in India [12]: there is room to grow once construction recovers.

Competition. The multinationals (Asian Paints, Nippon, Jotun, Kansai Nerolac via local partners) and local groups (Elite, RAK, ACI's Dulux, PRAN-RFL) compete on dealer margins, tinting machines, painter loyalty programmes and promotions. Berger's answer has been brand and service: the Somporko painter app, Berger Training Institute, Experience Zones, Design Studio, and premium launches such as the Luxury Silk range and Easy Clean Fresh [1 p.19] [1 p.20]. Its advertising and promotion fell to 3.3% of standalone revenue in FY2026 from 4.0% [1 p.57]; we lift selling costs back to 11.9% of revenue (excluding depreciation) because competitors are investing.

Policy. Paint carries 15% VAT and, since early 2025, 10% supplementary duty on supply (from 5%) and 30% SD on some imported raw materials (from 20%), according to the BPMA as reported by The Daily Star; another producer quoted in the same article gave 5% on paint [12]. Berger's own accounts confirm a step up: SD rose from BDT 0.90bn in FY2024 to 2.00bn in FY2026, from 2.9% to 5.6% of sales after discounts [1 p.56] [4 p.94]. The effective rate is about half the 10% headline; our reading (not disclosed by the company) is that SD falls on only part of the range or on a narrower base than gross sales, so we model the effective 5.6% rather than the statutory rate. The Finance Act 2026 cut Berger's corporate tax rate from 25% to 20% [2 p.11].

Exhibit 5BPMA shares as reported by The Daily Star: Berger leads, ahead of Asian Paints and Nippon
%
020.040.060.0BergerAsian PaintsNipponOthers (33 local brands incl. Elite, RAK, Dulux)54.016.0822.0
Data
BergerAsian PaintsNipponOthers (33 local brands incl. Elite, RAK, Dulux)
Market share54.0016.008.0022.00
Source: [12] · BPMA figures as reported by The Daily Star, Feb-2025; 'others' is the remainder.
Exhibit 6Indirect taxes rose from 17.4% to 20.2% of Berger's sales after discounts as SD doubled
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026A
Gross sales (BDT mn)35,04438,09340,354
Discounts and rebates-3,758-3,898-4,359
VAT-4,555-4,952-5,252
Supplementary duty-901-1,232-2,003
Net revenue, standalone25,83028,01128,739
VAT + SD / sales after discounts17.4%18.1%20.2%

Liquid volume grew 2.4% and price 4.3% in FY2026; we model revenue +14% in FY2027F

Berger discloses quantities, which lets us split growth into volume and price. Liquid paint (emulsions, enamels, distempers, industrial coatings) is 88% of gross sales: 106,464 KL in FY2023, 101,843 KL in FY2024 (-4.3%), 107,632 KL in FY2025 (+5.7%) and 110,264 KL in FY2026 (+2.4%) [1 p.56] [4 p.94]. Gross price per litre rose from BDT 298.1 to 323.0 over FY2024–26. Non-liquid products (putty, powder, adhesives) slipped from 40,316 tonnes in FY2023 to 38,247 in FY2026. Value growth beat volume by 3.0pp in FY2025 and 3.5pp in FY2026: price and premium mix did more than volume.

FY2027 so far. Consolidated Q1 FY2027 revenue rose 14.9% to BDT 8.14bn [2 p.6]; the company credits higher sales and price adjustments for raw and packaging costs [9], which The Financial Express and The Business Standard also reported [10] [11]. Q2 FY2027 (Jul-Sep) revenue rose 12.6% to BDT 7.04bn, but gross margin fell to 29.8% from 30.8% as oil-shock raw-material costs reached cost of sales; H1 revenue was BDT 15.18bn (+13.8%), gross margin 34.2% and EPS BDT 52.79 vs 31.14 [7 p.6]. We model FY2027 liquid volume +5% and price +10%, giving revenue of BDT 33.4bn (+14.2%).

From FY2028. Volume growth of 6%–7% assumes construction keeps recovering and Berger holds share. Liquid sales already exceed single-shift capacity of 120,540 KL (91.5% in FY2026, run on multiple shifts) [1 p.58]; the third factory at Mirsarai, which the company says will 'support the growing demand for paints' [1 p.22], lifts capacity from FY2029 (we assume +50%, as its size is not disclosed). Price growth of 4.5–5% is below Bangladesh inflation; supplementary duty stays at its FY2026 rate of 5.6% of sales after discounts. Subsidiaries' external sales (tins, IT) grow 6%.

Exhibit 7Volume grew 2.4% and value 5.9% in FY2026: price and mix did most of the work
%
0510.015.0ForecastFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Liquid volume growthValue growth (gross sales)
Data
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Liquid volume growth5.702.405.006.006.00
Value growth (gross sales)8.705.9014.309.7010.20
Source: [1 p.56] [4 p.94]; model [19]
Exhibit 8Revenue = 115,777 KL × BDT 355 a litre + non-liquid, less 25% discounts and taxes, in FY2027F
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Revenue build: Berger Paints standalone (gross, BDT mn)
Price added by cost pass-through (vs base inputs)———0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Liquid paint sold (KL)101,843107,632110,264115,777122,724130,087139,193148,937
Liquid gross price (BDT per litre)298.1309.7323.0355.2369.5386.1403.5421.6
Liquid gross sales30,35533,33735,61041,12945,34150,22456,15862,793
Non-liquid sold (MT)38,80838,63238,24738,24738,62939,01639,79640,592
Non-liquid gross price (BDT per kg)115.4117.0116.4122.2127.1132.2137.4142.9
Non-liquid gross sales4,4774,5214,4514,6734,9095,1565,4705,802
Imported and other items212235293308323339356374
Gross sales35,04438,09340,35446,11050,57355,72061,98468,970
Discounts and rebates-3,758-3,898-4,359-4,980-5,462-6,018-6,694-7,449
VAT-4,555-4,952-5,252-5,984-6,564-7,232-8,045-8,951
Supplementary duty-901-1,232-2,003-2,287-2,508-2,763-3,074-3,421
Net revenue, Berger Paints standalone25,83028,01128,73932,85936,03939,70744,17149,149
Subsidiaries' external revenue421514530562596632670710
Consolidated statement of profit or loss (BDT mn)
Revenue, net26,25128,52529,27033,42136,63540,33944,84149,859
Revenue growth—8.7%2.6%14.2%9.6%10.1%11.2%11.2%
Total volume (KL + MT)140,651146,264148,511154,024161,353169,103178,989189,529
Materials and bought-in goods-16,399-17,914-18,092-20,188-21,585-23,694-26,392-29,409
Factory overhead excl. D&A—-1,090-1,172-1,337-1,465-1,614-1,794-1,994
Factory D&A—-420-459-611-607-1,054-1,036-1,031
Cost of sales-17,782-19,424-19,723-22,136-23,658-26,361-29,222-32,434
Gross profit8,4699,1009,54711,28512,97713,97815,61917,425
Gross margin32.3%31.9%32.6%33.8%35.4%34.7%34.8%34.9%
Selling, distribution and warehousing-3,291-3,698-3,887-4,478-4,858-5,664-6,186-6,778
Administrative and general-810-917-1,016-1,146-1,245-1,440-1,577-1,731
Other operating expenses (royalty, technical fees)-133-143-138-157-172-190-211-234
Foreign exchange loss-336-335-1700000
Other operating income310329330368403444493548
Income from operation (EBIT)4,2084,3374,8205,8717,1057,1288,1399,229
Depreciation and amortisation (total)—9391,0501,2221,2152,1072,0722,061
EBITDA—5,2765,8697,0948,3209,23510,21211,291
Finance cost-235-390-146-67-45-45-45-45
Investment income406592460461242132282477
Other non-operating income6371100000
Share of profit of associates6786107118130143157173
Profit before WPPF and tax4,4534,6625,2516,3837,4327,3578,5339,834
WPPF-220-231-260-316-368-364-422-487
Profit before tax4,2334,4314,9916,0677,0646,9938,1109,347
Income tax-990-1,062-1,271-1,096-1,533-1,517-1,760-2,028
Effective tax rate23.4%24.0%25.5%18.1%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%
Net profit3,2433,3703,7204,9715,5315,4766,3507,319
One-off items after tax (tax re-measurement)0002210000
Core net profit3,2433,3703,7204,7505,5315,4766,3507,319
Weighted shares (mn)47.3347.3348.4249.1149.1149.1149.1149.11
EPS, reported (BDT)68.5271.2076.83101.23112.64111.50129.32149.04
Core EPS (BDT)68.5271.2076.8396.74112.64111.50129.32149.04
Dividend per share (BDT)50.0052.5052.5065.8076.6075.8087.90101.40

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: Model [19]
Exhibit 9Revenue rose 14.9% and 12.6% in Q1–Q2 FY2027; gross margin swung from 38.1% to 29.8% as oil-shock costs arrived
BDT bn · right: %
0246810.00%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q264Q261Q272Q276.995.97.6487.096.258.067.878.147.04
RevenueGross margin
Data
1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q264Q261Q272Q27
Revenue6.995.907.648.007.096.258.067.878.147.04
Gross margin34.0031.1031.0031.4031.6030.8033.5034.1038.1029.80
Source: Interims [7 p.6] [8 p.6] [5 p.6] [6 p.6] [2 p.6]; annual [1 p.66] · Fiscal quarters: 1Q = Apr-Jun, 2Q = Jul-Sep (monsoon, weakest), 3Q = Oct-Dec (strongest), 4Q = Jan-Mar. 2Q = H1 less 1Q; 4Q = year less 9M.

Gross margin swung from 38.5% to 29.2% and back to 32.6%: TiO2, solvents and the taka set it

Materials are about 62% of revenue. In FY2026 Berger consumed BDT 15.0bn of raw materials (additives and chemicals 7.5bn, pigments such as titanium dioxide 4.0bn, solvents and oils 2.5bn, resins 1.0bn) and BDT 2.5bn of packing materials [1 p.57]. 90% of raw materials by value were imported (87% in FY2025); raw-material imports were BDT 12.9bn at CIF value [1 p.57] [1 p.60]. Solvents and resins are crude-oil derivatives; titanium dioxide is a global commodity. We have no free TiO2 or solvent price series (a gap), so the model uses a single US$ 'input basket' for the 77% of materials that are import-linked (86% raw × 90% imported) and local inflation for the rest.

History. Gross margin was 38.5% in FY2020 [4 p.38] and 39.8% in FY2021, then fell to 34.4% in FY2022 and 29.2% in FY2023 as oil, TiO2 and freight rose and the taka fell, before price rises restored it to 32.0% in FY2024 [1 p.30]. Material cost per unit of volume rose from BDT 116.6 to 122.5 in FY2025 as the taka weakened, then eased to BDT 121.8 in FY2026 on 'softer raw materials cost' [1 p.19]. FX losses fell from BDT 335m to BDT 17m as the exchange rate stabilised [1 p.66].

2026 and beyond. The 2026 Middle East war closed the Strait of Hormuz, doubled freight and lifted oil-linked input costs for Bangladeshi manufacturers [15]. We build the FY2027 US$ input basket from that: solvents and resins (crude-linked, about 23% of the raw-material bill) up about 15% adds 3.5pp, doubled freight on imports adds about 2.5pp, and TiO2 and other pigments are held flat, for +6% (a labelled assumption: no free TiO2 or solvent price series is available to us). For FY2028 we assume -2% as freight and war premia partly unwind. The taka weakens 2% in FY2027 and 3% a year after. Berger answered with price rises: Q1 FY2027 revenue rose 14.9% [2 p.6], which with about 5% volume implies 9–10% price, so we model liquid price +10% in FY2027 and +4% in FY2028 as the rises annualise. Half of any cost shock beyond the base is passed into prices in the same year (Berger recovered 2.8pp of margin in FY2024 after the FY2023 shock). Gross margin is 33.8% in FY2027F and 35.4% in FY2028F, then 34.7%–34.9% as Mirsarai depreciation enters cost of sales. Check against H1 (filed, no calibration): H1 FY2027 revenue of BDT 15.18bn is 45.4% of our FY2027F BDT 33.4bn, against 45.6% in FY2026, so the full-year revenue build needs no H2 step. H1 gross margin was 34.2% [7 p.6]; our FY2027F 33.8% implies an H2 margin of 33.4%, a little below H2 FY2026 (33.8%) because the Q2 drop to 29.8% shows the higher-cost basket is now flowing through cost of sales, while the price rises are already in the base. FY2027F core EPS of BDT 96.7 implies H2 core EPS of BDT 48.4 (H1 core BDT 48.3 = 52.79 less about 4.5 of tax credit), 6.0% above H2 FY2026 (BDT 45.7); H1 grew much faster (+64% core) mainly because Q1 FY2026 was depressed by the taka fall and the lower tax rate.

Exhibit 10Gross margin of 32.6% in FY2026 sits mid-range of 29.2%–39.8% over six years
%
010.020.030.040.0ForecastFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Data
FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Gross margin38.5039.8034.4029.2032.0031.7032.7033.8035.4034.70
Source: [1 p.30] (standalone); model [19]
Exhibit 11Pigments (TiO2) and additives are 76% of the BDT 15.0bn raw-material bill; 90% is imported
Qty FY2026 ('000 kg)BDT mn FY2026BDT mn FY2025
Additives and chemicals93,7577,5187,407
Pigments (incl. titanium dioxide)12,2273,9914,194
Solvents and oils (crude-linked)76,2422,4962,532
Resins (crude-linked)3,735970829
Extenders and white cement3644558
Raw materials186,32515,01915,020
Packing materials (local)—2,4602,420
Source: [1 p.57]
Exhibit 12A 10% weaker taka in FY2027, half passed on, costs BDT 15 of FY2028F core EPS; a 15% basket rise costs BDT 22
Basket US$ \ extra taka fall-5%0%5%10%15%
-10%134.4127.4120.5113.5106.5
-5%127.4120.0112.7105.498.1
+0%120.3112.6105.097.389.6
+10%106.397.889.481.072.6
+20%92.283.073.964.855.6
Source: Model [19], full recalculation per cell · FY2028F core EPS in BDT. Rows: input basket change in FY2027 vs base; columns: extra taka depreciation in FY2027 vs base. Base cell boxed (112.6).

Revenue grew 11.5% a year over FY2021–26 with ROE of 22–29% and negative working capital

Standalone revenue rose from BDT 16.7bn in FY2021 to BDT 28.7bn in FY2026 and net profit from BDT 2.55bn to 3.59bn (7.1% a year): profit lagged revenue because gross margin fell [1 p.30]. Return on equity was 27–29% in FY2021–23 and 22–25% in FY2024–26 [1 p.30]; the FY2026 rights cash (BDT 3.0bn, idle until spent on the plant) and a higher tax rate pulled the latest year down. Consolidated ROE was 21.2% in FY2026.

Berger's working capital is light: dealers pay in about 29 days and inventory turns in 92 days, against 119 days of supplier credit (incl. royalty payable) at Mar-2026 [1 p.65]. In FY2024 payables reached 196 days as import payments were deferred under UPAS letters of credit during the dollar shortage, which flattered FY2024 operating cash flow (BDT 6.5bn, 2.0x profit); the unwinding cut FY2025's to BDT 2.7bn [3 p.118]. We hold payables at 115 days and inventory at 95 days.

Exhibit 13Six-year standalone record: revenue +72%, net margin 11.5–15.3%, ROE down from 29% to 22%
FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
Revenue (BDT mn)16,67021,97125,55725,83028,01128,739
Gross margin39.8%34.4%29.2%32.0%31.8%32.6%
Net profit (BDT mn)2,5492,7762,9303,1083,2673,594
Net margin15.3%12.6%11.5%12.0%11.7%12.5%
ROE27.4%28.6%27.4%24.9%24.1%22.3%
EPS (BDT)54.9659.8663.1867.0270.4574.23
Source: [1 p.30]
Exhibit 14Cash conversion cycle rose from -57 to +2 days as UPAS import deferrals unwound
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028F
Inventory days108101929595
Receivable days3127292929
Payable days196135119115115
Cash conversion cycle-57-7299
Operating cash flow / net profit2.0x0.8x1.2x1.1x1.2x
Source: [1 p.65] [3 p.115]; model [19]
Exhibit 15ROE of 21.2% in FY2026 and 22.8%–23.8% in FY2027–28F
%
010.020.030.040.0ForecastFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
ROEROCE ex-cash
Data
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
ROE22.6021.2022.8023.8021.7023.2024.20
ROCE ex-cash32.8025.6023.3023.6024.1027.7031.30
Source: Model [19]

The BDT 11.84bn Mirsarai factory takes net cash down to BDT 0.8bn in FY2028 before it starts in April 2028

Berger is building a third factory on 38 acres at the National Special Economic Zone, Mirsarai, Chattogram [9]. The budget has risen three times: BDT 8.13bn (2024), BDT 9.8bn (Nov-2025, for more automation, a manufacturing execution system and construction inflation, with production moved to April 2027) and BDT 11.84bn (29-Oct-2026, for upgraded safety, digitalisation, inflation and FX, with production moved to April 2028) [9]. About BDT 3.03bn came from the Aug-2025 rights issue, of which 59.7% was spent by Mar-2026 (machinery 97%, land and buildings 22%) [1 p.32]. Capital work in progress reached BDT 4.77bn at Mar-2026 [1 p.65]; capital-goods imports were BDT 2.27bn in FY2026 against 0.23bn a year earlier [1 p.60].

We assume BDT 4.0bn was spent by Mar-2026 and the remaining BDT 7.84bn falls 55/45 across FY2027–28, plus maintenance capex of 3.5% of revenue. Net cash falls from BDT 4.9bn at Mar-2026 to BDT 2.3bn in FY2027 and BDT 0.8bn in FY2028, so investment income drops from BDT 460m to 132m in FY2029. On start-up, depreciation rises from BDT 1215m to 2107m (7% a year on the plant, our assumption). Both effects hold FY2029F core EPS at BDT 112, flat on FY2028; growth resumes in FY2030 as volume fills the new capacity. A packaging plant (JNPL) is planned next door [1 p.22].

Exhibit 16Capex of BDT 5.5bn in FY2027F and BDT 4.8bn in FY2028F turns net cash from BDT 4.9bn to BDT 0.8bn
BDT bn · right: BDT bn
02460246810.0ForecastFY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F1.151.854.835.484.811.411.571.75
CapexNet cash
Data
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Capex1.151.854.835.484.811.411.571.75
Net cash6.985.114.902.330.752.905.698.63
Source: [1 p.67] [3 p.118]; model [19]

Core EPS of BDT 97 in FY2027F strips a BDT 221m tax credit; the parent takes a 68% payout and a 1% royalty

One-offs. The Finance Act 2026 cut Berger's tax rate from 25% to 20%, and the company re-measured its FY2026 tax liability, crediting BDT 220.8m in Q1 FY2027 [2 p.11]. That is about BDT 4.5 a share of the BDT 52.79 H1 EPS [9]. We exclude it from core EPS and the P/E leg, and add it once in the DCF bridge. FX losses (BDT 336m in FY2024, 335m in FY2025, 17m in FY2026) are set to zero in the base case; the taka works through material costs instead.

Treasury income. Interest and dividend income was BDT 460m in FY2026, 9.2% of profit before tax [1 p.66]. It shrinks to 1.9% in FY2029F as the plant absorbs cash, so the earnings mix shifts toward operations. Because core EPS includes this income, the P/E leg does not add cash again.

Parent and minorities. The 1:17 rights issue at BDT 1,110 (Aug-2025) raised BDT 3.03bn; the parent, then at 95%, renounced its entitlement to other shareholders and employees to lift the free float to at least 10% under a BSEC directive [1 p.21]. Dividends were 525% (BDT 52.50) for both FY2025 and FY2026, a payout of 68.3% of consolidated EPS; the board says capex needs are considered in dividend decisions [1 p.20]. We keep a 68% payout, giving DPS of BDT 65.8 for FY2027F and BDT 76.6 for FY2028F. Contingent liabilities fell from BDT 2.98bn to 1.71bn [1 p.65]. Operating cash flow was 1.17x net profit in FY2026.

Exhibit 17Reported FY2027F EPS BDT 101.2 less the BDT 4.5 tax credit = core EPS BDT 96.7
BDT a share
050.0100150200Reported EPS FY2027FTax re-measurement creditCore EPS FY2027F101-4.596.7
Data
Reported EPS FY2027FTax re-measurement creditCore EPS FY2027F
BDT101.20-4.5096.70
Source: [2 p.11]; model [19]
Exhibit 18Payout of 68–74% of EPS; operating cash covered profit 1.2x in FY2026
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028F
DPS (BDT)50.052.552.565.876.6
Payout (DPS / core EPS)73.0%73.7%68.3%68.0%68.0%
Operating cash flow (BDT mn)6,4762,7344,3355,4866,467
Royalty and fees, % of revenue0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%
Investment income, % of PBT9.6%13.4%9.2%7.6%3.4%
Source: [1 p.67] [3 p.118]; model [19]

Forecast: volume +5–7% and price +4–10% lift core EPS from BDT 76.83 to BDT 149 by FY2031F

Each line has its own driver (Assumptions tab). Revenue is volume × price for liquid and non-liquid paint, less discounts (10.8% of gross), VAT (14.55%) and SD (5.6%), plus subsidiaries' sales. Material cost per litre moves with the import share × (US$ basket × taka) and local inflation, less a 0.5pp mix gain. Factory overhead (4.0%), selling (11.9%) and administration (3.1%) are shares of revenue excluding depreciation; the royalty is 0.47% of revenue. Investment income earns 7.0% on opening cash; tax is 21.7% (20% statutory plus non-deductible items).

Result. Revenue grows from BDT 29.3bn to BDT 49.9bn by FY2031F (11.2% a year) and core EPS from BDT 76.83 to BDT 149 (14.2% a year). FY2027F core EPS of BDT 96.7 implies a second half of BDT 48.4, against BDT 45.7 in H2 FY2026 (see the margins section for why it is close to annualised H1). FY2029F is flat because of Mirsarai depreciation and lower interest income. Our FY2028F ROE of 23.8% compares with a six-year standalone median of 26.1%, which was earned on a smaller equity base; our FY2028F gross margin of 35.4% is near the middle of the FY2020–26 range.

Exhibit 19Assumptions: liquid volume, price, the input basket and the taka drive the forecast
FY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029F
Liquid volume growth5.7%2.5%5.0%6.0%6.0%
Liquid price growth3.9%4.3%10.0%4.0%4.5%
Input basket, US$——6.0%-2.0%2.0%
Taka per US$——2.0%3.0%3.0%
Supplementary duty, % of sales after discounts3.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%
Material cost per litre/kg (BDT)122.5121.8131.1133.8140.1
Gross margin31.9%32.6%33.8%35.4%34.6%
Selling excl. D&A, % of revenue11.6%11.8%11.9%11.9%11.9%
Tax rate24.0%25.5%18.1%21.7%21.7%
Source: Model [19]
Exhibit 20Income statement FY2024A–FY2031F
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Revenue build: Berger Paints standalone (gross, BDT mn)
Price added by cost pass-through (vs base inputs)———0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Liquid paint sold (KL)101,843107,632110,264115,777122,724130,087139,193148,937
Liquid gross price (BDT per litre)298.1309.7323.0355.2369.5386.1403.5421.6
Liquid gross sales30,35533,33735,61041,12945,34150,22456,15862,793
Non-liquid sold (MT)38,80838,63238,24738,24738,62939,01639,79640,592
Non-liquid gross price (BDT per kg)115.4117.0116.4122.2127.1132.2137.4142.9
Non-liquid gross sales4,4774,5214,4514,6734,9095,1565,4705,802
Imported and other items212235293308323339356374
Gross sales35,04438,09340,35446,11050,57355,72061,98468,970
Discounts and rebates-3,758-3,898-4,359-4,980-5,462-6,018-6,694-7,449
VAT-4,555-4,952-5,252-5,984-6,564-7,232-8,045-8,951
Supplementary duty-901-1,232-2,003-2,287-2,508-2,763-3,074-3,421
Net revenue, Berger Paints standalone25,83028,01128,73932,85936,03939,70744,17149,149
Subsidiaries' external revenue421514530562596632670710
Consolidated statement of profit or loss (BDT mn)
Revenue, net26,25128,52529,27033,42136,63540,33944,84149,859
Revenue growth—8.7%2.6%14.2%9.6%10.1%11.2%11.2%
Total volume (KL + MT)140,651146,264148,511154,024161,353169,103178,989189,529
Materials and bought-in goods-16,399-17,914-18,092-20,188-21,585-23,694-26,392-29,409
Factory overhead excl. D&A—-1,090-1,172-1,337-1,465-1,614-1,794-1,994
Factory D&A—-420-459-611-607-1,054-1,036-1,031
Cost of sales-17,782-19,424-19,723-22,136-23,658-26,361-29,222-32,434
Gross profit8,4699,1009,54711,28512,97713,97815,61917,425
Gross margin32.3%31.9%32.6%33.8%35.4%34.7%34.8%34.9%
Selling, distribution and warehousing-3,291-3,698-3,887-4,478-4,858-5,664-6,186-6,778
Administrative and general-810-917-1,016-1,146-1,245-1,440-1,577-1,731
Other operating expenses (royalty, technical fees)-133-143-138-157-172-190-211-234
Foreign exchange loss-336-335-1700000
Other operating income310329330368403444493548
Income from operation (EBIT)4,2084,3374,8205,8717,1057,1288,1399,229
Depreciation and amortisation (total)—9391,0501,2221,2152,1072,0722,061
EBITDA—5,2765,8697,0948,3209,23510,21211,291
Finance cost-235-390-146-67-45-45-45-45
Investment income406592460461242132282477
Other non-operating income6371100000
Share of profit of associates6786107118130143157173
Profit before WPPF and tax4,4534,6625,2516,3837,4327,3578,5339,834
WPPF-220-231-260-316-368-364-422-487
Profit before tax4,2334,4314,9916,0677,0646,9938,1109,347
Income tax-990-1,062-1,271-1,096-1,533-1,517-1,760-2,028
Effective tax rate23.4%24.0%25.5%18.1%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%
Net profit3,2433,3703,7204,9715,5315,4766,3507,319
One-off items after tax (tax re-measurement)0002210000
Core net profit3,2433,3703,7204,7505,5315,4766,3507,319
Weighted shares (mn)47.3347.3348.4249.1149.1149.1149.1149.11
EPS, reported (BDT)68.5271.2076.83101.23112.64111.50129.32149.04
Core EPS (BDT)68.5271.2076.8396.74112.64111.50129.32149.04
Dividend per share (BDT)50.0052.5052.5065.8076.6075.8087.90101.40

From the Income statement tab of the model.

Source: Model [19]
Exhibit 21FY2026→FY2028F core EPS: gross profit +BDT 52, opex -BDT 17 after tax and WPPF
BDT a share
050.0100150200250Core EPS FY2026Gross profitOperating costsInterest, associatesTax rate and sharesCore EPS FY2028F76.851.9-17.3-1.62.8113
Data
Core EPS FY2026Gross profitOperating costsInterest, associatesTax rate and sharesCore EPS FY2028F
BDT76.8051.90-17.30-1.602.80112.60
Source: Model [19] · Pre-tax changes converted at FY2028F after-WPPF, after-tax factor 0.743 and 49.1m shares; the 'tax rate and shares' step is the residual (lower tax rate, more shares).
Exhibit 22Balance sheet and cash flow follow from the same drivers
FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Assets (consolidated, BDT mn, 31 March)
Net fixed assets: existing pool (PPE, ROU, intangibles)6,5297,2468,4298,3768,4448,6318,9499,397
Capital work in progress (Mirsarai)1,5811,8774,7709,08212,610000
Net fixed assets: Mirsarai pool0000011,72810,90710,143
Investment in associates (equity method)420471547594646703766835
Term deposits (govt securities) and inter-company loan314254102102102102102102
Inventories5,2675,3844,9785,7616,1586,8617,6068,442
Trade and other receivables2,1992,0952,3232,6552,9113,2053,5633,961
Advances, deposits, prepayments, other1,127573463568623686762848
Cash and cash equivalents7,6655,9436,4803,3571,7833,9266,7179,658
Total assets25,10323,84428,09230,49733,27635,84239,37143,386
Equity and liabilities
Shareholders' equity14,35515,46319,65422,04724,34726,06128,69031,692
Borrowings (UPAS import loans, shareholder's loan)4935491,049500500500500500
Lease liabilities502537631631631631631631
Trade and other payables incl. royalty payable9,5317,2066,4146,9747,4548,3059,20710,219
Other liabilities (deferred tax, gratuity, tax provision, unclaimed dividend)22288344344344344344344
Total equity and liabilities25,10323,84428,09230,49733,27635,84239,37143,386
Check: assets - liabilities0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net cash (cash + govt securities - borrowings - leases)6,9855,1114,9022,3287542,8975,6888,629
Net cash per share (BDT)142.2104.199.847.415.359.0115.8175.7
Book value per share (BDT, 49.1m shares)292.3314.9400.2449.0495.8530.7584.2645.4

From the Balance sheet tab of the model.

Source: Model [19]

Valuation: BDT 509–1571 a share; base 1129 = 10.0x FY2028F core EPS at a 13.8% cost of equity

Cost of equity. Risk-free rate 9.268% (10-year Treasury bond cut-off, 25-Oct-2026) [18] + beta 0.60 × equity risk premium 7.5% = 13.8%. Berger's two-year weekly beta against the DSEX is only 0.29 (R² 0.13): with a 10% free float the share barely trades with the market. Blume-adjusted it is 0.52; we lift it to the 0.6 floor, which is our single allowance for the thin float. We do not add a separate liquidity premium, which would count the same float twice; a 1pp premium would take about BDT 150–200 off the DCF (Exhibit 26). Net cash means WACC equals the cost of equity. Terminal growth is 7.0% in taka, in the 6–7% range for paints and below nominal GDP growth.

Three legs on one set of returns. All three use the same cost of equity, 7.0% long-run growth and a 23.2% return on new capital, equal to our average FY2027–31 ROE. (1) DCF of free cash flow to the firm: FY2027–31 from the forecast; FY2032–36 fade revenue growth to 7.0% and EBIT margin to 16.5%, and free cash flow there is NOPAT × (1 − growth ÷ RONIC), so the business reinvests 45% of NOPAT in FY2032 falling to 30% (7.0% ÷ 23.2%) in the terminal year. In FY2029–31 net reinvestment is close to zero (-9% to -0% of NOPAT): the Mirsarai plant is paid for in FY2027–28 and its spare capacity (+50% liquid, our assumption) absorbs 6–7% volume growth with only maintenance capex, so free cash flow is almost all of NOPAT. From FY2032 that spare capacity is used up, so we switch to reinvestment of growth ÷ RONIC (45% of NOPAT in FY2032, falling to 30% in the terminal year) to fund the next round of capacity. The terminal value is 57.0% of EV. EV at Mar-2026 plus net cash BDT 4.9bn, associates at book and the tax credit, rolled to Oct-2026, less the BDT 2.58bn FY2026 dividend paid in Sep-2026, gives BDT 1,156. (2) Justified forward P/E = payout ÷ (Ke − g), payout = 1 − g ÷ ROE: 10.3x on next-12-month core EPS of BDT 106.0 = BDT 1,093. (3) Dividend discount: model DPS FY2027–31 (68% payout) plus a Gordon terminal value = BDT 1,115.

Reconciling the legs. Because they share Ke, g and the return on capital, the legs land within 6% of each other. The DCF is highest (10.9x next-12-month EPS) because it adds the 10–11% revenue growth to FY2031 and the cash pile explicitly; the justified P/E assumes steady 7.0% growth from next year, so it is lowest; the DDM sits between, carrying the forecast DPS growth but a 68% payout that is slightly below the 70% the steady-state formula implies. Weights are 50/30/20: the DCF gets the most because only it captures the Mirsarai cash outflow, the FY2029 depreciation step and the later volume step-up; the P/E (30%) anchors on near-term earnings; the DDM (20%) reflects that 90% of the stock is held by a parent that is paid in dividends. Reverse DCF: the price of BDT 1,449 matches our DCF at a cost of equity of 12.3%, 1.4pp below ours.

Against Berger's history (WRITER 4b). The 23.2% return on new capital and the 16.5% terminal EBIT margin compare with standalone ROE of 22–29% over FY2021–26 and standalone pre-tax margins of 20.8% (FY2021), 17.4% (FY2022), 15.1% (FY2023) and 15.8–16.8% (FY2024–26) [1 p.30]; consolidated EBIT margins were 15.2–16.5% in FY2024–26. Both sit at or below the record, so they are not peak values. The stock traded at a 31.9x median trailing P/E in pre-floor fiscal years (Mar-2019, Mar-2021, Mar-2022) and 25.5x in FY2024–26; Mar-2020 and Mar-2023 closes were at DSE floor prices [16]. Those multiples came with a 26–29% ROE, a smaller float and lower Treasury yields, and we do not use them to price. Our base is 11.7x FY2027F and 10.0x FY2028F core EPS, 6.6x FY2028F EV/EBITDA, 2.8x Mar-2026 book and a 5.8% FY2027F dividend yield. The DSE has no other listed paint maker; the median trailing P/E of listed chemical companies with profits (Linde Bangladesh, ACI Formulations, Wata Chemicals) is 29.0x [17], shown for context only.

Exhibit 23Base BDT 1129 sits between the P/E (1,093), DDM (1,115) and DCF (1,156) values
05001,0001,5002,000DCF (FCFF, 50%)5471,561Justified P/E (30%)4831,495Dividend discount (20%)4541,707Blended fair value5091,57152-week trading range1,3361,550Base 1129Price 1,449
Data
LowHigh
Source: Model [19]; price [16] · Leg ranges are each leg's value in the bear and bull scenarios.
Exhibit 24Cost of equity of 13.8%: 9.27% Treasury + 0.6 beta × 7.5%, no extra liquidity premium
Value
Risk-free rate (10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-2026)9.3%
Equity risk premium7.5%
Beta, raw (104 weekly returns vs DSEX, rights ex-date excluded)0.29
Beta, Blume-adjusted0.52
Beta used0.60
Liquidity premium0.0%
Cost of equity = WACC (net cash, no structural debt)13.8%
Terminal growth (nominal BDT)7.0%
Terminal EBIT margin16.5%
Terminal capex, % of revenue4.5%
Normalised ROE for the justified multiple (model average FY27-31)23.2%
Return on new invested capital (RONIC), terminal and fade years23.2%
Roll-forward Mar-2026 -> Oct-2026 (years)0.58

From the WACC tab of the model.

Source: [18]; beta [16]; model [19]
Exhibit 25DCF: EV of BDT 49.4bn plus BDT 4.9bn net cash gives BDT 1,156 a share
FY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034FFY2035FFY2036F
Revenue (BDT mn)33,42136,63540,33944,84149,85955,02160,25665,48470,61775,560
Revenue growth14.2%9.6%10.1%11.2%11.2%10.4%9.5%8.7%7.8%7.0%
EBIT (income from operation)5,8717,1057,1288,1399,2299,96410,66911,33211,93612,467
EBIT margin17.6%19.4%17.7%18.2%18.5%18.1%17.7%17.3%16.9%16.5%
NOPAT (after WPPF 4.95% and tax 21.7%)4,3705,2885,3056,0576,8697,4157,9418,4338,8839,279
D&A1,2221,2152,1072,0722,0612,2742,4912,7072,9193,124
Capex-5,482-4,810-1,412-1,569-1,745-2,036-2,350-2,685-3,037-3,400
Capex, % of revenue16.4%13.1%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.7%3.9%4.1%4.3%4.5%
Change in net working capital-661-227-209-277-308-314-318-318-312-301
FCFF-5501,4665,7916,2836,8774,1004,6785,2745,8776,474
Net reinvestment, % of NOPAT112.6%72.3%-9.2%-3.7%-0.1%44.7%41.1%37.5%33.8%30.2%
Discount factor (from Mar-2026)0.880.770.680.600.520.460.410.360.310.28
PV of FCFF-4841,1333,9333,7503,6081,8911,8961,8791,8411,782
NWC, % of revenue (FY2031F)6.1%—————————
Sum of PV, FY2027-36 (BDT mn)21,229—————————
Terminal value at FY2036102,353—————————
PV of terminal value28,177—————————
Enterprise value, Mar-202649,407—————————
Terminal value, % of EV57.0%—————————
Plus net cash, Mar-20264,902—————————
Plus associates at book (Berger Becker, Berger Fosroc)547—————————
Plus FY2026 tax re-measurement credit221—————————
Equity value, Mar-2026 (cum FY2026 dividend)55,076—————————
Less FY2026 dividend paid Sep-2026 (BDT 52.50 x 49.1m)-2,578—————————
Equity value, Oct-202656,777—————————
DCF value per share (BDT)1,156.2—————————
Next-12-month core EPS (5/12 FY27F + 7/12 FY28F)106.01—————————
Justified payout = 1 - g / ROE69.8%—————————
Justified forward P/E = payout / (Ke - g)10.3x—————————
P/E value per share1,092.9—————————
DDM: PV of DPS FY2027-31274.2—————————
DDM: PV of terminal value841.1—————————
DDM value per share1,115.3—————————
Fair value per share, blended (DCF 50%, P/E 30%, DDM 20%)1,129.0—————————
Implied P/E on FY2027F core EPS11.7x—————————
Implied P/E on FY2028F core EPS10.0x—————————
Implied EV/EBITDA on FY2028F6.6x—————————
Implied P/B on Mar-2026 book2.8x—————————
Implied dividend yield on FY2027F DPS5.8%—————————
DCF-implied P/E on NTM core EPS10.9x—————————
Ex-cash P/E of base value on FY2028F (net cash Mar-26 per share removed)9.1x—————————
Bear case fair value (scenario recalculation)509.1—————————
Bull case fair value (scenario recalculation)1,570.8—————————
Probability-weighted (25/50/25)1,084.5—————————
Reverse DCF: cost of equity at which DCF = price (BDT 1,449)12.3%—————————

From the Valuation tab of the model.

Source: Model [19]
Exhibit 26Each 1pp on the cost of equity moves the DCF by BDT 142–271 a share
Terminal g \ Ke11.8%12.8%13.8%14.8%15.8%
6.0%1,4651,2521,094973876
6.5%1,5341,2961,123992890
7.0%1,6191,3471,1561,014905
7.5%1,7221,4081,1941,039921
8.0%1,8521,4811,2391,067940
Source: Model [19], full recalculation per cell · DCF value per share (BDT). Base cell boxed.
Exhibit 27Range BDT 509–1571: bear (25%), base 1129 (50%), bull (25%); probability-weighted BDT 1,084
BearBaseBull
Liquid volume growth FY2027–312–4%5–7%7–9%
Liquid price growth FY2027 / FY2028 / later9% / 3% / 4%10% / 4% / 4.5%10% / 5% / 5%
Input basket US$ FY2027 / FY2028+12% / +2%+6% / -2%+3% / -5%
Taka depreciation FY20276%2%0%
Supplementary duty, % of sales after discounts6.5% from FY20285.56%4% from FY2028
Cost of equity / terminal growth15.3% / 6.5%13.8% / 7.0%13.8% / 7.5%
Mirsarai budget (BDT bn)13.0011.8411.84
FY2028F core EPS (BDT)71.2112.6143.3
FY2028F gross margin29.0%35.4%39.7%
Fair value (BDT a share)5091,1291,571
Source: Model [19]
Exhibit 28Trailing P/E fell from a 31.9x pre-floor median to 18.7x at Mar-2026
x
010.020.030.040.050.0Mar-19Mar-20*Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23*Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26Base value on FY2028F: 10.0x
Data
Mar-19Mar-20*Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23*Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26
Trailing P/E (standalone EPS)42.6026.5031.9029.3027.4026.7025.5018.70
Source: March closes [16]; EPS [1 p.30] · * DSE floor-price year. Fiscal-year-end (March) closes; history shown for context, not used to price.
Exhibit 29No listed paint peer; profitable DSE chemical stocks have a 29.0x median trailing P/E
PriceMcap BDT bnP/E TTMP/BDiv yield
BERGERPBL1,449.0071.1515.163.320.04
LINDEBD625.409.5228.982.870.02
ACIFORMULA138.506.5418.561.700.02
WATACHEM122.101.81129.482.000.01
ACMEPL23.103.12—1.470.00
FARCHEM16.102.46—0.550.01
Source: [17] · Third-party trailing ratios from our screener, context only. Asian Paints, Nippon, Elite and RAK are not listed in Bangladesh.

Risks: a 15% input-cost rise or a 3pp price war each costs about BDT 213–216 of fair value

Every risk below changes a line in the model; we ran the whole workbook again for each. Input costs (TiO2, solvents, resins): +15% in US$ in FY2027 with half passed into prices cuts FY2028F core EPS by BDT 22 and fair value by BDT 213. Taka: 10% weaker in FY2027 costs BDT 15 of EPS. Competition: if Asian Paints, Nippon or Elite force prices 3pp lower for two years, EPS falls BDT 22; if Berger answers with 1pp more selling spend, BDT 6. Construction: 4pp lower volume growth for two years costs BDT 11. Tax policy: a further SD rise to 8% effective costs BDT 14, while a rollback to 4% adds BDT 9. Plant: a 20% overrun at Mirsarai (BDT 2.37bn, about BDT 48 a share before discounting) cuts the DCF by BDT 51 a share and the blended fair value by BDT 37 (the DCF carries 50% weight; the P/E and DDM legs move only through lower interest income); a further delay would defer volume growth.

Other risks without a model line: governance and minority treatment (89.7% parent; royalty terms set by the parent), BSEC free-float rules, environmental rules on lead and VOCs, political unrest and power or gas disruption at the plants.

Exhibit 30Input costs, price competition and the taka are the largest line-item risks
Risk or opportunityLine movedFY2028F core EPS change (BDT)Blended fair value change (BDT)
Input basket (TiO2, resins, solvents) +15% in US$ in FY27, half passed into pricesMaterials cost per litre-22.2-213.0
Taka 10% weaker vs US$ in FY27, half passed into pricesMaterials cost per litre-15.4-146.0
Price war: liquid price growth 3pp lower in FY27 and FY28 (Asian Paints, Nippon, Elite promotions)Liquid price per litre-22.5-216.0
Construction slump: liquid volume growth 4pp lower in FY27 and FY28Liquid volume-11.3-117.0
SD on paint raised again (effective 8% from FY28)Supplementary duty-13.6-116.0
Marketing war: selling costs +1pp of revenue from FY27Selling and distribution-5.8-56.0
Mirsarai overrun: budget +20% (BDT 14.2bn)Capex, D&A, interest income-1.4-37.0
Opportunity: SD cut back (effective 4% from FY28)Supplementary duty8.773.0
Opportunity: input basket -10% in US$ in FY27Materials cost per litre14.8134.0
Source: Model [19], full recalculation per risk

What to watch

  • Q2 gross margin of 29.8%: whether Q3 recovers toward 33% as price rises catch up with the oil-shock basket.
  • Q3 FY2027 (Oct-Dec, the peak painting season), due late January 2027.
  • Mirsarai progress, rights-proceeds utilisation reports (deadline 31-Mar-2027) and any further budget change.
  • The FY2027-28 budget (June 2027): SD and VAT on paint and paint raw materials.
  • Crude oil, TiO2 prices and the taka; BPMA market data and competitors' capacity additions.

Note on data. The latest statements used are the FY2026 annual report (year to 31-Mar-2026) [1] and the Q1 FY2027 interim (to 30-Jun-2026) [2] and H1 FY2027 interim (to 30-Sep-2026) [7]; the new plant budget comes from a DSE disclosure dated 29-Oct-2026 [9]. The model will be updated when the Q3 FY2027 statements (to 31-Dec-2026) are filed.

The model

The model with its formulas: open it in the spreadsheet view or download the Excel file (AnalystBro paid accounts). Download .xlsx

Assumptions

FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Volume (Berger Paints, own-manufactured)
Liquid paint volume growth (KL)———5.0%6.0%6.0%7.0%7.0%
Non-liquid volume growth (MT: putty, powder, adhesives)———0.0%1.0%1.0%2.0%2.0%
Liquid installed capacity, single shift (KL)——120,540120,540120,540180,810180,810180,810
Price and indirect taxes
Liquid gross price per litre, change———10.0%4.0%4.5%4.5%4.5%
Non-liquid gross price per kg, change———5.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
Imported and other items, growth———5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%
Discounts and rebates, % of gross sales———10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%
VAT, % of sales after discounts———14.5%14.5%14.5%14.5%14.5%
Supplementary duty, % of sales after discounts———5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%
Subsidiaries' external revenue growth (J&N tin cans, IT services)———6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%
Costs
Import-linked share of materials———77.0%77.0%77.0%77.0%77.0%
Input basket in US$ (TiO2/pigments, resins, solvents), change———6.0%-2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Base-case input basket change (reference for pass-through)———6.0%-2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Base-case taka change (reference for pass-through)———2.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
Pass-through of cost shocks (vs base) into price, same year———50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%
BDT per US$, change———2.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
Local cost inflation (packing, wages)———8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%
Mix / procurement gain on material cost per unit———0.5%0.5%1.0%0.5%0.5%
Material and bought-in cost per litre/kg (BDT)116.59122.48121.82131.07133.78140.11147.45155.17
Factory overhead excl. D&A, % of revenue———4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
Selling, distribution and warehousing excl. D&A, % of revenue———11.9%11.9%11.9%11.9%11.9%
Administrative excl. D&A, % of revenue———3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%3.1%
Royalty and technical fees, % of revenue———0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%
Other operating income, % of revenue———1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.1%
D&A and capex
D&A, % of opening net fixed assets (existing pool)———14.5%14.5%14.5%14.5%14.5%
D&A, % of Mirsarai assets (buildings and plant)———7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%
Factory share of D&A (in cost of sales)———50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%
Selling share of D&A———41.0%41.0%41.0%41.0%41.0%
Maintenance and other capex, % of revenue———3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%
Mirsarai third factory: total budget (BDT mn)———11,840————
Mirsarai spend to Mar-2026 (BDT mn)———4,000————
Share of remaining Mirsarai spend in the year———55.0%45.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Working capital, finance, tax, payout
Inventory days (of cost of sales)———9595959595
Receivable days (of revenue)———2929292929
Advances, deposits, prepayments, % of revenue———1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%
Payable days incl. royalty payable (of cost of sales)———115115115115115
Interest earned on opening cash and govt securities———7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%
Finance cost, % of opening borrowings and leases———4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
Borrowings at year end (UPAS + shareholder's loan)———500500500500500
Share of profit of associates (Berger Becker 49%, Berger Fosroc 50%), growth———10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
WPPF, % of profit before WPPF———5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%
Effective tax rate (recurring)———21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%
One-off tax credit (BDT mn): FY2026 liability re-measured at 20%———220.80.00.00.00.0
Dividend payout (DPS / core EPS)———68.0%68.0%68.0%68.0%68.0%

Income statement

FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Revenue build: Berger Paints standalone (gross, BDT mn)
Price added by cost pass-through (vs base inputs)———0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Liquid paint sold (KL)101,843107,632110,264115,777122,724130,087139,193148,937
Liquid gross price (BDT per litre)298.1309.7323.0355.2369.5386.1403.5421.6
Liquid gross sales30,35533,33735,61041,12945,34150,22456,15862,793
Non-liquid sold (MT)38,80838,63238,24738,24738,62939,01639,79640,592
Non-liquid gross price (BDT per kg)115.4117.0116.4122.2127.1132.2137.4142.9
Non-liquid gross sales4,4774,5214,4514,6734,9095,1565,4705,802
Imported and other items212235293308323339356374
Gross sales35,04438,09340,35446,11050,57355,72061,98468,970
Discounts and rebates-3,758-3,898-4,359-4,980-5,462-6,018-6,694-7,449
VAT-4,555-4,952-5,252-5,984-6,564-7,232-8,045-8,951
Supplementary duty-901-1,232-2,003-2,287-2,508-2,763-3,074-3,421
Net revenue, Berger Paints standalone25,83028,01128,73932,85936,03939,70744,17149,149
Subsidiaries' external revenue421514530562596632670710
Consolidated statement of profit or loss (BDT mn)
Revenue, net26,25128,52529,27033,42136,63540,33944,84149,859
Revenue growth—8.7%2.6%14.2%9.6%10.1%11.2%11.2%
Total volume (KL + MT)140,651146,264148,511154,024161,353169,103178,989189,529
Materials and bought-in goods-16,399-17,914-18,092-20,188-21,585-23,694-26,392-29,409
Factory overhead excl. D&A—-1,090-1,172-1,337-1,465-1,614-1,794-1,994
Factory D&A—-420-459-611-607-1,054-1,036-1,031
Cost of sales-17,782-19,424-19,723-22,136-23,658-26,361-29,222-32,434
Gross profit8,4699,1009,54711,28512,97713,97815,61917,425
Gross margin32.3%31.9%32.6%33.8%35.4%34.7%34.8%34.9%
Selling, distribution and warehousing-3,291-3,698-3,887-4,478-4,858-5,664-6,186-6,778
Administrative and general-810-917-1,016-1,146-1,245-1,440-1,577-1,731
Other operating expenses (royalty, technical fees)-133-143-138-157-172-190-211-234
Foreign exchange loss-336-335-1700000
Other operating income310329330368403444493548
Income from operation (EBIT)4,2084,3374,8205,8717,1057,1288,1399,229
Depreciation and amortisation (total)—9391,0501,2221,2152,1072,0722,061
EBITDA—5,2765,8697,0948,3209,23510,21211,291
Finance cost-235-390-146-67-45-45-45-45
Investment income406592460461242132282477
Other non-operating income6371100000
Share of profit of associates6786107118130143157173
Profit before WPPF and tax4,4534,6625,2516,3837,4327,3578,5339,834
WPPF-220-231-260-316-368-364-422-487
Profit before tax4,2334,4314,9916,0677,0646,9938,1109,347
Income tax-990-1,062-1,271-1,096-1,533-1,517-1,760-2,028
Effective tax rate23.4%24.0%25.5%18.1%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%
Net profit3,2433,3703,7204,9715,5315,4766,3507,319
One-off items after tax (tax re-measurement)0002210000
Core net profit3,2433,3703,7204,7505,5315,4766,3507,319
Weighted shares (mn)47.3347.3348.4249.1149.1149.1149.1149.11
EPS, reported (BDT)68.5271.2076.83101.23112.64111.50129.32149.04
Core EPS (BDT)68.5271.2076.8396.74112.64111.50129.32149.04
Dividend per share (BDT)50.0052.5052.5065.8076.6075.8087.90101.40

Balance sheet

FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Assets (consolidated, BDT mn, 31 March)
Net fixed assets: existing pool (PPE, ROU, intangibles)6,5297,2468,4298,3768,4448,6318,9499,397
Capital work in progress (Mirsarai)1,5811,8774,7709,08212,610000
Net fixed assets: Mirsarai pool0000011,72810,90710,143
Investment in associates (equity method)420471547594646703766835
Term deposits (govt securities) and inter-company loan314254102102102102102102
Inventories5,2675,3844,9785,7616,1586,8617,6068,442
Trade and other receivables2,1992,0952,3232,6552,9113,2053,5633,961
Advances, deposits, prepayments, other1,127573463568623686762848
Cash and cash equivalents7,6655,9436,4803,3571,7833,9266,7179,658
Total assets25,10323,84428,09230,49733,27635,84239,37143,386
Equity and liabilities
Shareholders' equity14,35515,46319,65422,04724,34726,06128,69031,692
Borrowings (UPAS import loans, shareholder's loan)4935491,049500500500500500
Lease liabilities502537631631631631631631
Trade and other payables incl. royalty payable9,5317,2066,4146,9747,4548,3059,20710,219
Other liabilities (deferred tax, gratuity, tax provision, unclaimed dividend)22288344344344344344344
Total equity and liabilities25,10323,84428,09230,49733,27635,84239,37143,386
Check: assets - liabilities0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net cash (cash + govt securities - borrowings - leases)6,9855,1114,9022,3287542,8975,6888,629
Net cash per share (BDT)142.2104.199.847.415.359.0115.8175.7
Book value per share (BDT, 49.1m shares)292.3314.9400.2449.0495.8530.7584.2645.4

Cash flow

FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Net profit———4,9715,5315,4766,3507,319
D&A———1,2221,2152,1072,0722,061
Less associates' profit, plus dividends received———-47-52-57-63-69
Change in working capital———-661-227-209-277-308
Net cash from operations6,4762,7344,3355,4866,4677,3168,0839,003
Maintenance and other capex———-1,170-1,282-1,412-1,569-1,745
Mirsarai third factory capex———4,3123,528000
Capex-1,153-1,855-4,828-5,482-4,810-1,412-1,569-1,745
Free cash flow (CFO + capex)5,324879-49341,6575,9056,5137,258
Dividends paid-1,857-2,320-2,434-2,578-3,231-3,762-3,722-4,316
Rights issue (net)002,98300000
Change in borrowings and leases———-5490000
Change in cash———-3,124-1,5742,1432,7912,942
Check vs balance sheet cash———0.00.00.00.00.0
Operating cash flow per share (BDT)136.857.889.5111.7131.7149.0164.6183.3

Ratios

FY2024AFY2025AFY2026AFY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031F
Liquid volume growth—5.7%2.4%5.0%6.0%6.0%7.0%7.0%
Value growth (standalone gross sales)—8.7%5.9%14.3%9.7%10.2%11.2%11.3%
Price/mix gap (value - volume)—3.0%3.5%9.3%3.7%4.2%4.2%4.3%
Liquid capacity use (sold / single-shift capacity)——91.5%96.0%101.8%71.9%77.0%82.4%
Gross margin32.3%31.9%32.6%33.8%35.4%34.7%34.8%34.9%
EBITDA margin—18.5%20.1%21.2%22.7%22.9%22.8%22.6%
Operating (EBIT) margin16.0%15.2%16.5%17.6%19.4%17.7%18.2%18.5%
Core net margin12.4%11.8%12.7%14.2%15.1%13.6%14.2%14.7%
Indirect taxes (VAT + SD) / sales after discounts17.4%18.1%20.2%20.1%20.1%20.1%20.1%20.1%
Royalty and fees, % of revenue0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%
Investment income, % of profit before tax9.6%13.4%9.2%7.6%3.4%1.9%3.5%5.1%
ROE (core profit / average equity)—22.6%21.2%22.8%23.8%21.7%23.2%24.2%
ROCE ex-cash: EBIT x (1 - 21.7%) / (equity - net cash)44.7%32.8%25.6%23.3%23.6%24.1%27.7%31.3%
Inventory days108101929595959595
Receivable days3127292929292929
Payable days196135119115115115115115
Cash conversion cycle (days)-57-7299999
Operating cash flow / net profit2.0x0.8x1.2x1.1x1.2x1.3x1.3x1.2x
Payout (DPS / core EPS)73.0%73.7%68.3%68.0%68.0%68.0%68.0%68.0%
Capex, % of revenue4.4%6.5%16.5%16.4%13.1%3.5%3.5%3.5%
P/E on core EPS at BDT 1449.021.1x20.4x18.9x15.0x12.9x13.0x11.2x9.7x
EV/EBITDA at the price—12.5x11.3x9.7x8.5x7.4x6.4x5.5x
P/B5.0x4.6x3.6x3.2x2.9x2.7x2.5x2.2x
Dividend yield3.5%3.6%3.6%4.5%5.3%5.2%6.1%7.0%

Quarterly

1Q FY252Q FY253Q FY254Q FY251Q FY262Q FY263Q FY264Q FY261Q FY272Q FY27
Revenue (BDT mn)6,9865,8957,6408,0047,0876,2528,0577,8738,1427,043
Gross profit2,3771,8352,3712,5172,2401,9262,6972,6843,1002,099
Gross margin34.0%31.1%31.0%31.4%31.6%30.8%33.5%34.1%38.1%29.8%
Net profit9625669439008576301,1851,0481,808784
Revenue growth y/y————1.5%6.1%5.5%-1.6%14.9%12.6%
H1 FY27 vs model FY27F: H1 revenue share of FY27F—————————45.4%
Implied H2 FY27F gross margin—————————33.4%

History

FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
Revenue, standalone (BDT mn)15,63016,21916,67021,97125,55725,83028,01128,739
Gross profit, standalone—6,2416,6327,5617,4638,2738,8939,384
Gross margin—38.5%39.8%34.4%29.2%32.0%31.7%32.7%
Net profit, standalone1,9582,2922,5492,7762,9303,1083,2673,594
Net margin12.5%14.1%15.3%12.6%11.5%12.0%11.7%12.5%
Shareholders' equity, standalone—8,7089,8919,53211,88213,06514,07018,135
ROE (profit / average equity)——27.4%28.6%27.4%24.9%24.1%22.3%
Shares for EPS (mn; FY26 weighted after rights)46.3846.3846.3846.3846.3846.3846.3848.42
EPS, standalone (BDT)42.2149.4354.9659.8663.1867.0270.4574.23
Share price at fiscal year end (March close, BDT)1,797.71,308.61,754.71,753.61,733.41,787.61,795.11,389.9
Trailing P/E at March close42.6x26.5x31.9x29.3x27.4x26.7x25.5x18.7x
Pre-floor median P/E (FY19, FY21, FY22)31.9x———————
Post-floor median P/E (FY24-FY26)25.5x———————
Median ROE FY21-FY26 (standalone)26.1%———————

WACC

Value
Risk-free rate (10-yr T-bond cut-off, 25-Oct-2026)9.3%
Equity risk premium7.5%
Beta, raw (104 weekly returns vs DSEX, rights ex-date excluded)0.29
Beta, Blume-adjusted0.52
Beta used0.60
Liquidity premium0.0%
Cost of equity = WACC (net cash, no structural debt)13.8%
Terminal growth (nominal BDT)7.0%
Terminal EBIT margin16.5%
Terminal capex, % of revenue4.5%
Normalised ROE for the justified multiple (model average FY27-31)23.2%
Return on new invested capital (RONIC), terminal and fade years23.2%
Roll-forward Mar-2026 -> Oct-2026 (years)0.58

Valuation

FY2027FFY2028FFY2029FFY2030FFY2031FFY2032FFY2033FFY2034FFY2035FFY2036F
Revenue (BDT mn)33,42136,63540,33944,84149,85955,02160,25665,48470,61775,560
Revenue growth14.2%9.6%10.1%11.2%11.2%10.4%9.5%8.7%7.8%7.0%
EBIT (income from operation)5,8717,1057,1288,1399,2299,96410,66911,33211,93612,467
EBIT margin17.6%19.4%17.7%18.2%18.5%18.1%17.7%17.3%16.9%16.5%
NOPAT (after WPPF 4.95% and tax 21.7%)4,3705,2885,3056,0576,8697,4157,9418,4338,8839,279
D&A1,2221,2152,1072,0722,0612,2742,4912,7072,9193,124
Capex-5,482-4,810-1,412-1,569-1,745-2,036-2,350-2,685-3,037-3,400
Capex, % of revenue16.4%13.1%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.7%3.9%4.1%4.3%4.5%
Change in net working capital-661-227-209-277-308-314-318-318-312-301
FCFF-5501,4665,7916,2836,8774,1004,6785,2745,8776,474
Net reinvestment, % of NOPAT112.6%72.3%-9.2%-3.7%-0.1%44.7%41.1%37.5%33.8%30.2%
Discount factor (from Mar-2026)0.880.770.680.600.520.460.410.360.310.28
PV of FCFF-4841,1333,9333,7503,6081,8911,8961,8791,8411,782
NWC, % of revenue (FY2031F)6.1%—————————
Sum of PV, FY2027-36 (BDT mn)21,229—————————
Terminal value at FY2036102,353—————————
PV of terminal value28,177—————————
Enterprise value, Mar-202649,407—————————
Terminal value, % of EV57.0%—————————
Plus net cash, Mar-20264,902—————————
Plus associates at book (Berger Becker, Berger Fosroc)547—————————
Plus FY2026 tax re-measurement credit221—————————
Equity value, Mar-2026 (cum FY2026 dividend)55,076—————————
Less FY2026 dividend paid Sep-2026 (BDT 52.50 x 49.1m)-2,578—————————
Equity value, Oct-202656,777—————————
DCF value per share (BDT)1,156.2—————————
Next-12-month core EPS (5/12 FY27F + 7/12 FY28F)106.01—————————
Justified payout = 1 - g / ROE69.8%—————————
Justified forward P/E = payout / (Ke - g)10.3x—————————
P/E value per share1,092.9—————————
DDM: PV of DPS FY2027-31274.2—————————
DDM: PV of terminal value841.1—————————
DDM value per share1,115.3—————————
Fair value per share, blended (DCF 50%, P/E 30%, DDM 20%)1,129.0—————————
Implied P/E on FY2027F core EPS11.7x—————————
Implied P/E on FY2028F core EPS10.0x—————————
Implied EV/EBITDA on FY2028F6.6x—————————
Implied P/B on Mar-2026 book2.8x—————————
Implied dividend yield on FY2027F DPS5.8%—————————
DCF-implied P/E on NTM core EPS10.9x—————————
Ex-cash P/E of base value on FY2028F (net cash Mar-26 per share removed)9.1x—————————
Bear case fair value (scenario recalculation)509.1—————————
Bull case fair value (scenario recalculation)1,570.8—————————
Probability-weighted (25/50/25)1,084.5—————————
Reverse DCF: cost of equity at which DCF = price (BDT 1,449)12.3%—————————

Sensitivity

c1c2c3c4c5
Grid A: DCF value per share (BDT); rows terminal g, columns cost of equity
Terminal g \ Ke11.8%12.8%13.8%14.8%15.8%
g 6.0%1,4651,2521,094973876
g 6.5%1,5341,2961,123992890
g 7.0%1,6191,3471,1561,014905
g 7.5%1,7221,4081,1941,039921
g 8.0%1,8521,4811,2391,067940
Grid B: FY2028F core EPS (BDT); rows input basket US$ change in FY27, columns extra taka depreciation in FY27
Basket \ taka-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
Basket -10%134.4127.4120.5113.5106.5
Basket -5%127.4120.0112.7105.498.1
Basket +0%120.3112.6105.097.389.6
Basket +10%106.397.889.481.072.6
Basket +20%92.283.073.964.855.6
Grid B: fair value per share (BDT)
FV, basket -10%1,3251,2631,2011,1371,072
FV, basket -5%1,2621,1971,1301,061991
FV, basket +0%1,1991,1291,057984908
FV, basket +10%1,070989906819727
FV, basket +20%934841742635515

Peers

PriceMcap BDT bnP/E TTMP/BDiv yield
BERGERPBL1,449.0071.1515.163.320.04
LINDEBD625.409.5228.982.870.02
ACIFORMULA138.506.5418.561.700.02
WATACHEM122.101.81129.482.000.01
ACMEPL23.103.12—1.470.00
FARCHEM16.102.46—0.550.01
Median P/E of DSE A15 chemicals with positive earnings (ex-Berger)——29.0x——

FAQ

What is Berger Paints Bangladesh's fair value?
We estimate BDT 509–1571 a share; base BDT 1129, probability-weighted BDT 1,084; from a DCF (50%), a justified P/E (30%) and a dividend discount model (20%) at a 13.8% cost of equity [19]. The price was BDT 1,449 on 29-Oct-2026 [16].
What is Berger's market share in Bangladesh?
About 54% of a Tk 6,250 crore market, against Asian Paints 16% and Nippon 8%, according to BPMA figures reported by The Daily Star (Feb-2025); a single, approximate source [12].
How much did Berger earn in FY2026 and H1 FY2027?
FY2026 (to Mar-2026): revenue BDT 29.27bn, net profit BDT 3.72bn, EPS BDT 76.83 [1 p.66]. H1 FY2027: revenue BDT 15.18bn (+13.8%), EPS BDT 52.79 vs 31.14, including a one-off tax credit of about BDT 4.5 a share [7 p.6] [2 p.11].
What is the Mirsarai third factory?
A new plant at the National Special Economic Zone, Mirsarai, budgeted at BDT 11.84bn and due to start production in April 2028 [9]; part is funded by the BDT 3.03bn 2025 rights issue [1 p.32].
Why did Berger's gross margin change so much?
About 62% of revenue is materials and 77% of those are import-linked (TiO2, resins, solvents), so oil prices and the taka move cost; margin fell to 29.2% in FY2023 and recovered to 32.6% in FY2026 and 38.1% in Q1 FY2027 after price rises [1 p.30] [2 p.6].
How much dividend does Berger pay?
BDT 52.50 a share (525%) for FY2026, 68% of consolidated EPS; we model BDT 65.8 for FY2027F [1 p.20] [19].

Sources

  1. Berger Paints Bangladesh Annual Report 2025-26 (FY2026, year to 31-Mar-2026): consolidated and separate statements, notes, directors' report, MD&A, rights-proceeds audit · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  2. Berger Paints Bangladesh un-audited interim statements, Q1 FY2027 (1-Apr to 30-Jun-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  3. Berger Paints Bangladesh Annual Report 2024-25 (FY2025, year to 31-Mar-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  4. Berger Paints Bangladesh Annual Report 2023-24 (FY2024, year to 31-Mar-2024) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  5. Berger Paints Bangladesh un-audited interim statements, H1 FY2026 (to 30-Sep-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  6. Berger Paints Bangladesh un-audited interim statements, 9M FY2026 (to 31-Dec-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  7. Berger Paints Bangladesh un-audited interim statements, H1 FY2027 (1-Apr to 30-Sep-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  8. Berger Paints Bangladesh un-audited interim statements, 9M FY2025 (to 31-Dec-2024) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  9. DSE news archive, BERGERPBL, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026: rights issue (2024-25), third-factory budget revisions (2-Nov-2025, 29-Oct-2026), quarterly EPS disclosures incl. Q2 FY2027 (29-Oct-2026), dividends, CRAB AAA rating (30-Sep-2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  10. The Financial Express, 'Berger Paints' Q1 profit more than doubles on higher sales', Jul-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  11. The Business Standard, 'Berger Paints to invest Tk20cr in wholly owned subsidiary', 29-Jul-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  12. The Daily Star, 'Struggling paint industry looks to innovation for revival' (BPMA market size and shares, SD changes), 25-Feb-2025 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  13. The Daily Star, 'Bangladesh's cement producers reject US overcapacity claims' (BCMA: 39.75 mt cement demand 2025), 17-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  14. The Financial Express, 'Cement sector rebounds after 3-year slump', 11-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  15. The Daily Star, 'Cement makers under strain as war drives input costs' (Hormuz closure, freight doubled), 29-Apr-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  16. AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): BERGERPBL daily, weekly and monthly bars, DSEX weekly, to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  17. AnalystBro screener: DSE chemicals (A15) stocks, close 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  18. Bangladesh Bank treasury auctions: 10-year bond cut-off yield 9.268% (25-Oct-2026); 91-day T-bill 8.56% · link · accessed 2026-10-31
  19. AnalystBro model: model.xlsx for this report (workbook tabs below) · accessed 2026-10-31

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