Beacon Pharmaceuticals valuation report: fair value BDT 22–88.1 (Oct 2026)

Thesis: Beacon's FY2026 profit doubled, but a 18.2% cost of equity holds fair value to BDT 22–88

Beacon Pharmaceuticals PLC (DSE: BEACONPHAR) is Bangladesh's best-known maker of cancer medicines. From one site at Kathali, Bhaluka (Mymensingh) it makes more than 533 generics in 274 brands and 15 dosage forms, among them oncology brands such as Pemro (pemetrexed), Nivomab (nivolumab), Xelpac and Docexan, biotech products, and a growing general portfolio of antibiotics, gastro, diabetic and respiratory drugs [2 p.15] [3 p.6]. Its oncology products reach 135 countries [2 p.63]. The company says it 'stands at top of Oncology medication in Bangladesh' [2 p.134]; no market-share figure is published.

FY2026 (year to 30-Jun-2026) was the best year in Beacon's history. The board reported EPS of BDT 8.41 against 4.10, a 30.96% rise in sales, NAV per share of BDT 35.83 and operating cash flow per share of BDT 9.68, and recommended an 11% cash dividend [1]. The audited statements are not yet filed; we use the DSE figures, labelled, and the 9M interim to March 2026 for line items [3 p.3].

• The growth came from general medicines, not oncology. In FY2025 oncology grew only 2.9% to BDT 2.38bn (19% of sales) while the general portfolio grew 31.1% to BDT 7.38bn [2 p.147]. We forecast general, chronic and palliative sales growth of 15%, 13% and 12% and oncology 12%, 12% and 10% in FY2027–29F.
• Margins are steady; interest is the swing line. Gross margin has stayed at 50–52% for five years [2 p.49]. Finance cost was BDT 1.31bn in FY2025, 49% of profit before financing [2 p.190]; it falls to 22% by FY2029F in our model as profit grows on flat debt.
• Returns are high now but have not been stable. ROE was 9% in FY2023, 15% in FY2025 and 26% in FY2026E; we forecast 24%–22% but value the long run on 16%, the FY2021–26 median.
• A new BDT 2.5bn oncology plant (oncology production facility 2) will add 380m tablets, 211m capsules and 20m injectable vials a year and prepare products for stringent-regulator markets [1]; we add the spend to FY2027–29F capex and keep borrowings near BDT 9–10bn.
• Valuation. DCF BDT 60 (WACC 15.7%, g 6%), justified P/B BDT 29; a justified P/E of 5.1x on Beacon's own returns (BDT 43) is a cross-check, and the large-pharma median P/E (7.49x) is context only. Blended DCF 75 / P/B 25: base BDT 52, range BDT 22–88; the price of BDT 92.7 sits just above the bull case.

Sponsors hold 39.9%; Beacon has no subsidiaries but BDT 4.4bn of dealings with sister companies

Beacon was incorporated in 2001, listed on the DSE and CSE in 2010 after its IPO and renamed Beacon Pharmaceuticals PLC in 2023 [3 p.6]. Sponsors and directors own 39.86%, institutions 38.90% and the public 21.23% of 231m shares [2 p.204]. Nurun Nahar Karim chairs the board; Ulfat Karim, formerly COO, became managing director on 14-Dec-2025 [2 p.150] [1]. CRAB rates the company AA3 / ST-2 with a stable outlook (Nov-2025) [1]. The FY2025 statements were audited by Habib Sarwar Bhuiyan & Co. [2 p.189].

No subsidiaries; sum of the parts does not apply. Beacon reports standalone statements only. Its sister companies (Beacon Medicare, Beacon Cephalosporin, Beacon Oncology Ltd, Beacon Developments, Ereba Capsules and others) are owned by the sponsors, not by the listed company [2 p.148]. There is no part worth 15% of value with different economics, so we value Beacon as one business.

Related parties are the governance question. FY2025 related-party transactions totalled BDT 4.37bn, the largest with Beacon Medicare (sales and loans, BDT 2.46bn), Beacon Developments (services and loans, BDT 794m), Beacon Cephalosporin (purchases and loans, BDT 468m) and Ereba Capsules (BDT 364m) [2 p.148]. Beacon earned BDT 320m of interest on loans to related parties, more than the whole of other income (BDT 275m) [2 p.210]. Short-term investments and loans were BDT 2.12bn at Jun-25 and BDT 2.48bn at Mar-26 [2 p.189] [3 p.2]. We keep this interest in other income at 1.5% of sales, and our related-party risk case removes it.

Ten years of growth. Revenue rose from BDT 2.95bn in FY2017 to BDT 12.54bn in FY2025, about 20% a year, and to about BDT 16.4bn in FY2026 [4 p.38] [2 p.47]. Profit grew far faster from a low base: FY2017–19 profit was only BDT 104–126m because finance and operating costs absorbed most of gross profit; the step-up came in FY2021 (BDT 863m) once the oncology and general plants were running at scale. FY2023–24 were weaker (BDT 510m and 521m) as the taka fell, interest rates rose and political disruption hit sales; FY2025 and FY2026 recovered. Beacon employed 4,771 people at Jun-25 [2 p.215].

FY2026: sales up 31% and EPS BDT 8.41; 9M gross margin held at 51.8%

What the DSE notice says. On 17-Oct-2026 the board reported audited FY2026 EPS of BDT 8.41 (+105.2%), driven by 30.96% higher sales; NAV per share rose 24.1% to BDT 35.83 as retained earnings grew; NOCF per share rose 39.8% to BDT 9.68 on higher collections [1]. It recommended an 11% cash dividend (BDT 1.10), with a record date of 10-Nov-2026 and an AGM on 13-Dec-2026. FY2026 sales were therefore about BDT 16.43bn, and profit after tax BDT 1.94bn. The audited statements (segment split, tax, borrowings) are not yet in our corpus; we flag the filing as missing and will update the model when it is.

The 9M interim gives the line items. Revenue to March 2026 was BDT 12.02bn, up 33.6%; gross profit rose 35.6% to BDT 6.22bn (51.8% margin) [3 p.3]. Selling, marketing and distribution rose 35.8% to BDT 2.98bn (24.8% of sales) and administration 11.6%; profit before financing was BDT 2.87bn. Finance expenses were flat at BDT 1.01bn, so almost all the extra gross profit reached the bottom line: profit before tax rose 67.7% to BDT 1.78bn and profit after tax 59.0% to BDT 1.38bn (EPS 5.95) [3 p.3]. The company explained that the prior year was 'constrained due to socio-political factors' and that the business recovered with better collections [1].

FY2026E line items. Revenue is fixed at FY2025 × 1.3096. For the fourth quarter we apply the 9M ratios to the Q4 revenue implied by the DSE figure (BDT 4.41bn, +24% on the prior Q4), take finance cost at the March-quarter run-rate and charge tax at the 9M rate of 22.6%. Our line items then fall BDT 28m short of the DSE-announced profit; we show that gap as a separate 'Residual vs DSE-announced profit' line for FY2026E only, rather than bending the tax rate, and it will be resolved by the audited statements. Q4 EPS was BDT 2.45, against BDT 1.22 in the March quarter and 2.47 in the December quarter [1]; FY2025's Q4 had been hit by political disruption [2 p.149].

Oncology is 19% of sales and grew 2.9% in FY2025; the general portfolio drove a 17% year

Beacon reports six revenue segments [2 p.147]. In FY2025 general medicines grew 31.1% to BDT 7.38bn (59% of sales), oncology 2.9% to BDT 2.38bn, biotech 25.4% to BDT 1.04bn, chronic care 50.0% to BDT 531m and palliative 19.9% to BDT 183m, while institutional (government tender) sales fell 27.6% to BDT 1.03bn. Total revenue rose 17.2% to BDT 12.54bn [2 p.146]. New products launched in FY2025 (57 products, 26 new generics) brought BDT 350m of sales [2 p.134] [2 p.147].

Why oncology is the franchise even at 19% of sales. Cancer drugs need a segregated, contained plant: Beacon's oncology facility (OPF 1) was designed to EU-GMP and WHO-cGMP standards with isolators, separate airflow and automated material transfer for high-potency APIs, and makes tablets, capsules and lyophilised and liquid injectables [2 p.57]. Few Bangladeshi firms have that, which supports price and share. The products include targeted therapies and immunotherapy (Nivomab) [2 p.15]. But growth stalled in FY2025, which the company does not explain; price competition and hospital budgets are the likely causes (our inference). We model 12%/12%/10% for FY2027–29F, below the general portfolio, then the second plant from about FY2029.

Domestic market. Bangladesh's medicine market was US$3.37bn on IQVIA data for the year to June 2025, up 12.4%, and local firms supply about 98% of demand [5 p.21] [2 p.145]. Beacon's FY2025 sales of BDT 12.5bn (about US$100m at ~122/US$, net of VAT) imply a share of very roughly 3% of the retail-value market (our calculation; values are not directly comparable). Growth of 31% in general medicines and 50% in chronic care means Beacon is taking share in mass-market segments, which costs selling spend: marketing, selling and distribution was 26.9% of sales in both FY2024 and FY2025 [2 p.190], and field-force travel and incentives rose 14.5% and 24.9% [2 p.210].

Institutional sales are tenders to government hospitals and programmes; they fell 27.6% in FY2025 as state purchases were cut. We hold them flat in FY2027F and add 3% a year after. Exports booked in Beacon's own revenue were only BDT 195.5m in FY2025 (1.6% of sales) and nil in FY2024 [2 p.207], although the company says its oncology products reach 135 countries [2 p.63]; how much export volume passes through distributors or sister companies is not disclosed (a gap).

How the business makes money. Beacon sells branded generics to pharmacies and hospitals through a field force that calls on doctors; prices are set by the company within DGDA rules, and the cost base is roughly half materials and factory overhead and a quarter selling cost. The economics differ by line. General medicines (antibiotics, gastro, diabetic, respiratory, cardiovascular) are a crowded market where Beacon competes with Square, Incepta, Beximco, Renata and dozens of others on brand and coverage; growth there is bought with representatives, samples and conferences (BDT 246m of conference and launch costs and BDT 60m of samples in FY2025 [2 p.210]). Oncology and biotech are specialist lines sold to a few hundred oncologists and cancer hospitals, where the plant, the dossier and the doctor relationship are the barriers, and where patients often pay out of pocket for drugs that are far cheaper than imported originals. Institutional sales follow government budgets.

What comes next. Three things will shape FY2027–29: whether general medicines keep growing at two to three times the market after a 31% year, whether oncology growth recovers once the second plant is built, and whether interest cost falls as rates ease. The first is the biggest lever in our tornado: each 3 points a year of general-medicine growth moves fair value by about BDT 5. Domestically, demand is supported by an ageing population, rising cancer incidence and better diagnosis, but household budgets are squeezed by inflation and cancer care is mostly paid out of pocket, which favours affordable local generics over imports. We assume oncology volume grows with the market and that price competition from other local makers keeps oncology growth near 10–12% rather than the high-teens of a decade ago.

A BDT 2.5bn second oncology plant adds 380m tablets and 20m vials a year; exports are still 1.6% of sales

On 17-Oct-2026 Beacon announced a BDT 250 crore (BDT 2.5bn) investment in oncology production facility 2. On completion it adds annual capacity of 379.7m tablets, 211.0m capsules, 25.3m blisters and 20m injectable vials, and the company will strengthen R&D to make its own products ready for 'SRA markets' (stringent regulatory authorities such as the EU, UK and US) [1]. No timetable or funding split was given. We spread BDT 2.5bn over FY2027–29F on top of about BDT 0.5bn a year of maintenance capex (capex BDT 1,500m, 1,700m and 1,300m), against BDT 1.12bn in FY2024 and BDT 0.82bn in FY2025 [2 p.192]. Capital work-in-progress was BDT 1.09bn at Jun-25 [2 p.189].

Capacity utilisation by dosage form is not published (a gap), so we do not model a volume ceiling; instead the new plant is reflected in oncology growth of 10% in FY2029F and in the bull case (15–20%). Its main value is regulated-market exports, which today are tiny in the reported numbers. Bangladesh's pharmaceutical exports were US$213m in FY2025, +4% [2 p.145]; Beacon's booked exports of BDT 195.5m are about 7% of that. Our base case does not depend on SRA approvals; the bull case does.

Gross margin has held at 50–52% for five years; half of materials are imported, so a 10% weaker taka costs 1.1pp

Cost of goods sold was 48.0% of sales in FY2025: materials consumed BDT 3.91bn (31.2% of sales), factory overheads BDT 1.58bn and finished goods bought in BDT 530m [2 p.208]. Gross margin was 51.8% (FY2021), 51.7%, 50.4%, 51.7% and 52.0% (FY2025) [2 p.49], and 51.8% in 9M FY2026 [3 p.3]: remarkably stable through the taka's fall from about 86 to 120 per dollar in 2022–24. Mix helps: oncology and biotech carry higher margins than general medicines (our inference; product margins are not disclosed).

API and FX exposure. Imports of raw and packing materials were BDT 2.12bn on a CIF basis in FY2025, against purchases of BDT 4.20bn, so about 50% of materials are imported [2 p.215] [2 p.208]; the industry as a whole imports about 90% of APIs [5 p.21]. The FX loss in other income was BDT 73m in FY2025 and BDT 94m in FY2024 [2 p.210]. We assume 30% of any cost shock can be passed on within the year. A 10% weaker taka then costs 1.1 points of gross margin; with 20% dearer APIs as well, FY2027F EPS falls from BDT 9.73 to 7.66.

DGDA price controls. The Directorate General of Drug Administration fixes maximum retail prices for the essential-drug list and must approve price changes on others. Beacon does not disclose how much of its sales is price-controlled (n.a.); most oncology and biotech products are outside the essential list, which is one reason the margin is stable. In the model DGDA works through the 30% pass-through and through our DGDA risk case (base gross margin 1.5 points lower), which costs BDT 3 of fair value.

On fair value the same 10% taka / 20% API cell gives BDT 51 against the base of BDT 52 (Sensitivity tab): a one-year shock that fades costs little value, because we assume costs and prices re-balance from FY2028F. A permanent shock is captured instead by our DGDA case, which lowers the margin in every year. Energy and wages are the other cost lines: utilities in factory overhead were BDT 370m in FY2025, flat on FY2024, and factory salaries rose 19% [2 p.208]; we hold overhead within the 51.5% gross margin.

Finance cost took 49% of profit before financing in FY2025; we see 22% by FY2029F

Beacon funds working capital with bank debt. Borrowings were BDT 10.08bn at Jun-25: a BDT 3.49bn syndicated loan and smaller term loans (BDT 4.10bn long-term including the current portion) and BDT 5.97bn of short-term loans, the largest from Shahjalal Islami Bank (BDT 2.49bn) and Janata Bank (BDT 1.39bn) [2 p.205] [2 p.207]. At Mar-26 they were BDT 9.31bn [3 p.2]. Interest was BDT 1.36bn before BDT 55m was capitalised: about 13.4% on average debt [2 p.211], above the system lending rate of 12.13% [9].

In the model, finance cost is average borrowings × rate. We assume 12.75% in FY2027F easing to 12.25% as policy rates come down, and borrowings of BDT 9.9bn, 9.9bn and 9.3bn, which funds the new plant and still leaves cash rising to BDT 2.8bn. Interest cover (profit before financing / finance cost) rises from 2.0x in FY2025 to 4.5x in FY2029F; ±150bp on the rate moves fair value by BDT -3 / +3.

Capital actions and payout (last 24 months). There were no rights, bonus or other equity issues; the company says no equity has been issued since the 2010 IPO [2 p.150]. Cash dividends were 20% for FY2024 and 21% for FY2025, both paid to general and institutional holders only, with sponsors waiving [2 p.147]; the FY2025 dividend (BDT 291m) was paid in January 2026 [1]. For FY2026 the board cut the rate to 11% while announcing the BDT 2.5bn plant [1]. We assume a 20% payout from FY2027F. No BSEC or regulator rule caps pharma dividends; BSEC's 2021 directive requires a published dividend policy, which Beacon has [2 p.149].

LDC graduation puts patents on new cancer drugs at risk; losing 15% of oncology and biotech sales in FY2029F costs BDT 5

Bangladesh graduates from least-developed-country status in November 2026. For an oncology generic maker this is the central long-term risk. Under the WTO's LDC exemption, Bangladeshi firms may make copies of molecules still under patent elsewhere; Square's FY2025 report records the pharmaceutical exemption as running to 2033 [5 p.22]. Beacon's growth strategy depends on such molecules: its brand list includes immunotherapy (Nivomab) and targeted therapies that are still patented in major markets [2 p.15]. If patents become enforceable in Bangladesh, Beacon would need licences or would have to stop selling some products; it does not disclose the share of sales under patent (n.a.).

We model TRIPS as a separate risk case, not in the base: 15% of oncology and biotech revenue lost in FY2029F, which cuts fair value by BDT 5 to BDT 47. The bear case adds lower oncology growth (3–4%) from FY2027F. The export cash incentive also ends with graduation, but Beacon's booked exports are too small (1.6% of sales) for this to matter. Second, DGDA price policy: Beacon says nothing in the filings we read about price approvals; DGDA-controlled essential medicines are mainly in the general portfolio, where Beacon is growing fastest.

Why TRIPS matters more for Beacon than for most peers. A general-medicine maker sells mostly off-patent molecules, so patent enforcement touches a small slice of its range. Beacon's edge is the opposite: it launches copies of recent cancer and biotech drugs years before they would be available as generics in patent-protecting markets, and its directors' report lists 'patented medicines' among the inputs to its intellectual capital [2 p.134]. Once the exemption ends, new launches of molecules still under patent would need voluntary licences or compulsory-licence procedures, and existing products could face challenges. Offsetting this, many first-generation cancer drugs (pemetrexed, docetaxel, capecitabine, gemcitabine) are already off-patent worldwide, and governments of graduating countries have sought transition periods. The size of the hit is therefore uncertain; our 15% assumption for FY2029F is a judgement, shown as a risk case so readers can scale it.

Operating cash flow was 1.7x profit in FY2025 and 1.2x in FY2026; related-party interest is the soft spot

Cash conversion has been volatile. NOCF per share was BDT 0.85 (FY2021), 4.68, 2.69, −0.78 (FY2024), 6.93 (FY2025) and 9.68 (FY2026) [2 p.48] [1]. FY2024 was negative because receipts lagged sales and payments to suppliers rose; FY2025 recovered on BDT 12.84bn of receipts [2 p.192]. Note that Bangladeshi cash flows by the direct method include interest paid (BDT 1.33bn in FY2025) in operating cash flow. Working capital is heavy: inventories BDT 3.32bn (202 days of cost of sales), receivables BDT 3.03bn (88 days) and advances, deposits and prepayments BDT 3.96bn at Jun-25 [2 p.189].

Quality flags. (1) BDT 320m of FY2025 other income was interest on loans to related parties [2 p.210], about a quarter of profit before tax; if it stopped (our related-party case), FY2027F EPS would fall to BDT 8.66. (2) Tax: the FY2024 effective rate was 45.4% after a BDT 146m prior-year charge, FY2025 27.3% [2 p.211]; we use the 22.5% applicable rate. (3) FY2020 profit exceeded profit before tax because of a deferred-tax credit on the BDT 1.39bn machinery revaluation [4 p.80]; the revaluation reserve (BDT 719m at Jun-25) is in NAV [2 p.205].

Working capital in the forecast. We hold inventory plus receivables less payables at the FY2026E share of sales (35.0%), derived from the DSE operating cash flow, so growth absorbs about BDT 758m of cash in FY2027F. Advances and the related-party loans are held flat; if they grow with sales, as they did between Jun-25 and Mar-26, free cash flow and debt would be worse than we show. Operating cash flow covers capex in every forecast year, and cash builds to BDT 2.8bn by FY2029F even after the new plant, so the plant does not need new equity on our numbers.

We forecast EPS of BDT 9.73, 11.37 and 13.26 for FY2027–29F, 16% a year

Each line has its own driver (Assumptions tab). Revenue is built from four segment lines; gross margin is a base level less the FX/API shock; selling, admin and other income are shares of sales; D&A is 10.5% of opening fixed assets; finance cost is debt × rate; WPPF is 5% of profit after the charge; tax 22.5%. The result is revenue of BDT 18.6bn, BDT 20.9bn and BDT 23.2bn, profit before financing of BDT 4.28bn to BDT 5.33bn, and EPS of BDT 9.73, 11.37 and 13.26. FY2027F EPS growth of 16% is far below FY2026's doubling: we assume sales growth slows to 13%, the tax rate is 22.5% (22.6% in FY2026E) with no residual, and the margin stays flat.

Against history (§4b). Beacon's ROE was 4% in FY2018–19, 17% in FY2021, 17% in FY2022, 9% in FY2023–24, 15% in FY2025 and 26% in FY2026E (our calculation from the five-year tables) [2 p.48] [4 p.38]. The six-year median (FY2021–26E) is 15.7%. Our forecast ROE of 24%–22% is at the top of that range because FY2026's margin holds; for valuation we use 16% as the sustainable ROE and terminal return on new capital, near the median, and a terminal EBIT margin of 20% against a FY2021–26E median of 20.5% (range 13.8%–23.9%). Revenue grew 20% a year in FY2017–25. There is no management guidance and no earnings-call material in our filings corpus.

Fair value BDT 22–88: DCF 60, P/B 29, justified P/E 43; 50% of EV is terminal

Cost of capital. Risk-free rate 9.268% (10-year bond, 25-Oct-2026) [8], equity risk premium 7.5%, beta 1.20 (raw 1.29 on 104 weekly returns against the DSEX, correlation 0.57, Blume-adjusted; no sector floor or cap binds) [6]: cost of equity 18.23%. Beacon's beta is high for a drug maker because the stock is thinly held by the public (21%) and trades on news. Pre-tax cost of debt 12.75%, tax 22.5%, debt weight 31% at market: WACC 15.66%.

DCF (75%). FCFF for FY2027–29F from the forecast, then five years fading revenue growth to 6% and EBIT margin to 20%; net reinvestment fades to g / return on new capital = 6% / 16% = 37.5% of NOPAT, the same 16% return used in the P/B leg. EV is BDT 22.7bn (50% terminal); less net debt including leases of BDT 8.9bn gives BDT 60.0 a share.

Peer P/E (context only, weight 0). The five other large DSE drug makers trade at trailing P/Es of 6.18x (ACME), 7.41x (Beximco), 7.49x (Square), 11.53x (IBN SINA) and 13.41x (Renata); the median is 7.49x [7]. On Beacon's FY2026 EPS of BDT 8.41 that would be BDT 63. We do not weight it: screener TTM multiples are not taken from the peers' filings on a checked, like-for-like basis. Instead we cross-check with a justified P/E from Beacon's own returns: (1 − g/ROE)/(Ke − g) = 5.1x, or BDT 43 on FY2026 EPS. Peers are on their latest filings (consolidated where they have subsidiaries; Beacon has none).

Justified P/B (25%). With sustainable ROE 16%, g 6% and cost of equity 18.2%, the payout that funds growth is 1 − g/ROE = 62.5% and P/B = (ROE − g)/(Ke − g) = 0.82x, or BDT 29 on NAV of BDT 35.83. This leg is low because 16% is below our cost of equity: on its long-run record, Beacon does not earn its cost of capital.

Reconciling the methods. The DCF (60) is BDT 31 (105%) above the P/B leg (29). The gap is the fade: the DCF credits forecast ROE of 24%–22% in FY2027–29F and only then fades margin and returns over five years to the 16% long-run level, while the P/B leg applies 16% from today. The justified P/E (43) sits between them. We weight the DCF 75% because it is the only method that carries Beacon's actual near-term earnings, debt and plant spend; P/B takes 25% as the anchor to the long-run ROE, which is what the DCF fades to. The ROE fade is our judgement: FY2026's 26% followed 9% in FY2023–24, and margins, oncology pricing and TRIPS all argue against assuming it lasts. Against the price: BDT 92.7 is 11.0x FY2026 EPS and 2.59x book, and in our cash flows it needs a WACC of 13.2% or a terminal EBIT margin of 30%, against a best year of 23%. The market is pricing either a much lower risk premium or FY2026-level returns for good. Blended (75% DCF / 25% P/B): BDT 52; probability-weighted (25/50/25) BDT 54.

Against peers. On 29-Oct-2026 Square traded at 7.5x trailing earnings with net cash, Beximco at 7.4x, ACME at 6.2x, IBN SINA at 11.5x and Renata at 13.4x [7]; their median P/B is 1.19x and EV/EBITDA 4.96x. Beacon at 11.0x FY2026 earnings and 2.59x book is one of the most expensive, a premium for its oncology niche and its growth. The premium is reasonable for growth but harder to defend on returns: Beacon's six-year median ROE is about 16%, below our cost of equity, and its borrowings of about BDT 9–10bn are large against a BDT 21bn market value. Our bull case, with faster growth, cheaper money and a 20% sustainable ROE, reaches BDT 88, just below the price. Peer multiples are context only, for the same reason as the P/E leg; the DCF already carries Beacon's debt.

Stress line. Stacking every bear shock at once and adding TRIPS losses and a higher beta gives BDT 17; we show it outside the range because all of these at once is less likely than one in four. Sum of the parts does not apply: there are no subsidiaries, associates or listed holdings.

Risks: slower general-medicine growth costs BDT 8 of value; TRIPS is the long-tail threat

Each risk names the line it moves and its effect in the model (single-driver reruns at bear size against the base). Upside risks: faster oncology growth from the second plant, SRA approvals that open regulated export markets, a cut in interest rates, and ROE staying at FY2026's 26%, which is close to what the price assumes.

• 10-Nov-2026: record date for the 11% FY2026 dividend; 13-Dec-2026 AGM [1].
• Audited FY2026 annual report: segment split, tax, related-party balances and borrowings.
• Nov-2026: LDC graduation; watch government and WTO rules on the pharmaceutical TRIPS transition.
• Q1 FY2027 interim (by mid-Nov-2026): gross margin near 51.5% and selling near 25% would confirm the base case.
• Progress and funding of oncology facility 2; any SRA (EU/UK/US) approvals.

Note on data. The latest full statements used are the 9M FY2026 interim (to 31-Mar-2026) [3] and the FY2025 annual report [2]; FY2026 figures are from the DSE announcement of 17-Oct-2026 (audited statements not yet filed) [1]. The model will be updated when the FY2026 annual report and the Q1 FY2027 interim are filed.

FAQ

What is Beacon Pharmaceuticals' fair value?

Our fair value range is BDT 22–88 a share with a base of BDT 52, from a DCF (75%) and a justified P/B (25%), cross-checked with a justified P/E (20%). The price was BDT 92.7 on 29-Oct-2026.

What did Beacon earn in FY2026?

The board reported EPS of BDT 8.41 (FY2025: 4.10) on 30.96% higher sales, NAV per share of BDT 35.83 and NOCF per share of BDT 9.68 on 17-Oct-2026, with an 11% cash dividend. The audited statements are not yet filed.

How big is Beacon's oncology business?

BDT 2.38bn in FY2025, 19% of sales, up 2.9%; general medicines (BDT 7.38bn, +31%) drove growth. Beacon says its oncology products reach 135 countries.

What does LDC graduation mean for Beacon?

The main risk is TRIPS: after the pharmaceutical exemption ends (2033 per industry reports), patents on newer cancer drugs could be enforced. Losing 15% of oncology and biotech sales in FY2029F would cut our fair value to BDT 47.

Why is the fair value below the price?

Beacon's long-run ROE (FY2021–26 median about 16%) is below our 18% cost of equity; the price needs a 13.2% WACC or FY2026-level returns indefinitely.

Is Beacon's FY2026 profit sustainable?

Partly. Sales grew 31% after a disrupted FY2025 and the 9M gross margin held at 51.8%; we expect growth to slow to about 13% in FY2027F and the tax rate to return to 22.5%, giving EPS of BDT 9.73. About BDT 0.3bn a year of income is interest on loans to sister companies, which is less secure than operating profit.

What is oncology production facility 2?

A BDT 2.5bn plant announced on 17-Oct-2026 that adds 379.7m tablets, 211.0m capsules, 25.3m blisters and 20m injectable vials of annual capacity and is meant to prepare products for stringent-regulator export markets. No completion date was given.

What dividend does Beacon pay?

11% (BDT 1.10) for FY2026, a 1.2% yield; 21% for FY2025 and 20% for FY2024, paid to non-sponsor holders only.

Sources

1. DSE news archive, BEACONPHAR, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026: FY2026 results and 11% cash dividend (17-Oct-2026), oncology production facility 2 (17-Oct-2026), quarterly results, CRAB rating, MD appointment · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. Beacon Pharmaceuticals PLC Annual Report 2024-25 (FY2025, year to 30-Jun-2025): directors' report, five-year highlights, audited statements and notes · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. Beacon Pharmaceuticals PLC un-audited interim statements, 9M to 31-Mar-2026 (3Q FY2026) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. Beacon Pharmaceuticals Ltd Annual Report 2020-21 (FY2021): five-year financial highlights FY2017-21, statement of changes in equity · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. Square Pharmaceuticals PLC Annual Report FY2025, directors' report (IQVIA market size and growth, API import dependence, TRIPS) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): BEACONPHAR weekly bars, DSEX weekly, to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. AnalystBro screener: large DSE pharmaceutical stocks (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA TTM, dividend yield), close 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. Bangladesh Bank treasury auctions: 10-year bond cut-off yield 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
9. Bangladesh Bank, Scheduled Banks Statistics Apr-Jun 2026, Table-102: weighted average lending rate 12.13% · link · accessed 2026-10-31
10. AnalystBro model: model.xlsx for this report (workbook tabs below) · accessed 2026-10-31