British American Tobacco Bangladesh valuation report: fair value BDT 53.4–199 (Oct 2026)

Investment case: a 82% government take leaves 2027F EPS near BDT 17, about half the 2022-24 level

British American Tobacco Bangladesh (BATBC) is a cash machine whose margin now belongs to the budget. Of every Tk 100 of cigarettes it invoiced in 2025, Tk 82 went to the government as supplementary duty (SD), VAT and health surcharge, up from Tk 77 in 2024 [1 p.78]. The January 2025 interim budget raised weighted average prices 43% in seven months; the industry shrank 4%, BATBC's volume fell 27% and illicit volumes rose 70% [1 p.66]. Add a forced exit from the Mohakhali (Dhaka) factory, which cost BDT 7.1bn in one-off charges [1 p.260], and EPS fell from BDT 32.42 to BDT 10.81 [1 p.78].

The question for the valuation is what normal earnings look like once the one-offs are gone. Our answer is about BDT 17 a share in 2027F, well below the BDT 32-33 of 2022-2024, because the tax take has stepped up for good and the cheap Low tier, 73% of BATBC's sticks in 2024, has shrunk to 46% [1 p.66]. Net revenue per domestic stick still rises, from Tk 1.43 in 2025 to Tk 1.64 in 2027F, because the FY2026-27 budget lifted the medium, high and premium minimum prices by 13-15% [12] and the government's share of the retail price stayed at about 84% [2 p.14]. The third quarter of 2026 was weak: EPS of BDT 1.85 against BDT 5.65 a year earlier, on domestic volume down 25% to 7.3bn sticks [3 p.3] [3 p.14], so our 2026F EPS of BDT 12.55 needs a fourth quarter of about BDT 3.05. Three disputed tax claims total BDT 48.7bn, BDT 90 a share, none provided for [3 p.19] [3 p.20].

We value BATBC at BDT 53-199 a share, base 101. The base blends a free-cash-flow DCF at a 17.6% cost of equity (BDT 121, 60%), a justified P/E of 4.9x on 2027F EPS (BDT 77, 20%) and a dividend-yield value at the 6.6% median of listed multinational consumer peers (BDT 157, 20%), less BDT 18 a share of probability-weighted tax claims [11]. The price of BDT 209.1 on 29-Oct-2026 [8] is above our BDT 53-199 range; our DCF needs a perpetual growth rate of about 12% to reach the price, far above the 3% we use for a market whose legal volume is shrinking.

BAT owns 72.91% and the state 9.21%; group fees reached 2.6% of net revenue in 2025

BATBC makes and markets cigarettes in Bangladesh and exports processed leaf tobacco. It is the only listed cigarette maker and paid BDT 391bn to the exchequer in 2025 as VAT, SD, health surcharge, income tax and customs duty [1 p.67]. Its brands span all four legal price tiers, with Star leading the growth of the top three tiers in 2025 [1 p.66]. Since July 2025 all cigarettes come from one factory at Savar; the company also runs a green-leaf threshing plant in Kushtia, a re-drying plant in Manikganj and leaf depots [2 p.6]. It sold 49.9bn sticks at home in 2025 and exported 19.0mn kg of leaf [1 p.258].

Parent and government. Raleigh Investment Co. Ltd (UK), part of the British American Tobacco group, owns 72.91%. State bodies own 9.21%: Investment Corporation of Bangladesh 5.39%, Sadharan Bima Corporation 2.83%, the Government of Bangladesh 0.64% and Bangladesh Development Bank 0.35% [1 p.253]. Government-nominated directors sit on the board next to Raleigh's nominees and the ICB managing director [1 p.108]. The free float outside the parent and state holders is 17.88%. The parent is paid in three ways: dividends (72.91% of every payout), a royalty inside cost of sales (BDT 718mn in 2025) and a technical and assistance fee in operating expenses that jumped from almost nil to BDT 1,457mn in 2025 [1 p.259]. Remittances need BIDA approval; at Dec-2025, BDT 5,315mn of dividend was still in transit to the group [1 p.262].

Volume fell 27% in 2025 as Low collapsed 54%; we forecast 41.6bn sticks in 2027F with the top tiers at 65%

Bangladesh sets a minimum retail price for each of four tiers (Low, Medium, High, Premium) in the budget, and the SD rate on top. BATBC's notes give the result by tier in shares and growth rates, not in sticks, so we rebuild the split. In 2024, Low was 73% of BATBC's volume and 51% of the duty it collected; in 2025, Low fell to 46% of volume and 33% of duty [1 p.66]. Applied to reported sticks, that is 49,523mn Low and 18,317mn top-three sticks in 2024, and 22,944mn and 26,935mn in 2025: Low -54% and the top three +47%, which matches the company's own segment figures [1 p.67].

Inside the top three, Medium grew 89% as smokers traded up from Low and down from Premium; High fell 20% and Premium 15% [1 p.67]. The industry moved the same way: Medium rose from 7-9% of industry sales in FY2021-22 to 42% by May 2026 and Low fell from 77% to 49%, by a PPRC analysis reported by The Daily Star and The Financial Express [13] [15]. Dividing the duty by the tax take gives an estimated gross price of Tk 6.39 per Low stick and Tk 11.05 per top-three stick in 2025, against Tk 4.35 and Tk 11.30 in 2024. The Low estimate jumped because the interim budget lifted the Low tier hardest (excise from 76% to 83% of retail, against 81.5% to 83% for the others) [1 p.99].

2026 so far: domestic volume fell 4.6% in the first half (25,216mn sticks against 26,422mn), a 14% fall in the first quarter followed by a 1.9% rise in the second [2 p.14] [4 p.14]. In the third quarter, after the July price step, sticks fell 25% (7,322mn against 9,817mn) and nine-month volume was down 10.2% [3 p.14]. We forecast Low sticks to fall 26% in 2026F and 15% in 2027F as its minimum price goes from Tk 60 to Tk 65 per 10, and the top three to grow -1% and 2%: the 13-15% price step from July 2026 costs volume, and up-trading from Low gives some back. Total domestic sticks: 43,644mn in 2026F and 41,631mn in 2027F [11].

BATBC lost about a quarter of its market share in 2025 as illicit volume rose 70%

The Bangladesh cigarette market is about 70bn sticks a year, by an economist's estimate reported by The Daily Star [13]; BATBC sold 67.8bn in 2024 and 49.9bn in 2025 [1 p.258]. Three legal makers, BATBC, Japan Tobacco International (JTI, which bought Akij's United Dhaka Tobacco in 2018) and Abul Khair, supply nearly all legal cigarettes. Company shares are not published by a neutral source. The last public figures are from JTI's 2021 competition complaint, reported by The Daily Star: JTI said its share fell from 19.8% to 12.6%, and a 2019 study gave BATBC over 95% of the premium and high tiers and 58-65% of medium and low [19]. We label all of these as context, not inputs.

What the filing does show is share loss in 2025. BATBC's volume fell 27% while the industry fell 4% [1 p.66], so BATBC's share of the legal-plus-illicit market fell by about a quarter (0.73 / 0.96 = 0.76 of its 2024 share). The losers' volume went to cheaper brands and to illicit cigarettes, whose volume rose 70% in the year [1 p.66]. The manufacturers' association now puts illicit cigarettes at 15-18% of the market, as reported by The Daily Star [16]. The FY2026-27 budget promised a track-and-trace system for local production [12], but it had not been implemented by September 2026, as reported by The Financial Express [15].

BATBC's answer is portfolio: Star in Medium carried 2025, and the company now earns more duty from its top three tiers (67%) than from Low (33%) [1 p.67]. Its 2026 accounts also show contract manufacturing for a third party (439mn sticks in 2025, 327mn in the first half of 2026) [2 p.14], which uses Savar capacity freed by lower own volume. In the model, share and illicit trade enter through the tier volume growth rates; a 4% fall in top-tier volume in 2027F (illicit or JTI gains) instead of +2% cuts 2027F EPS to BDT 15.23 [11].

Materials cost Tk 0.55 a stick and overhead is fixed, so gross margin dips to 37% in 2026F

Cost of sales was BDT 49.7bn in 2025: raw materials BDT 35.3bn, manufacturing overhead BDT 12.5bn and royalty BDT 0.7bn [1 p.259]. Leaf and wrapping consumed in cigarettes cost BDT 27.9bn, Tk 0.550 per stick against Tk 0.532 in 2024 [1 p.263]. Leaf is mostly local: BDT 11.4bn of domestic leaf against BDT 0.65bn imported, while wrapping materials (paper, filters, packs) were BDT 15.9bn, 58% imported [1 p.263]. So the taka matters more through paper and filter tow than through leaf. The FY2026-27 budget also put a 300% SD on imported acetate tow and filter rods, as reported by The Daily Star [13]; BATBC imported only BDT 2.4bn of raw and packing materials in 2025, down from BDT 9.4bn [1 p.262], after building stock.

Leaf is also a business. BATBC bought BDT 24.1bn of local leaf in 2025 and exported 19.0mn kg for BDT 9.3bn, at about Tk 489 a kg, with a cost of BDT 7.4bn (80% of the sale) [1 p.258] [1 p.263]. In October 2025 the board approved running the Kushtia threshing plant all year to serve rising export demand [7]. We model other revenue (leaf, contract manufacturing and exports) at BDT 9.5bn in 2026F rising to BDT 11.5bn in 2028F at an 80% cost ratio. Materials per stick rise 3% in 2026F and 6% a year after; overhead is mostly fixed at BDT 12.8bn, so lower volume pushes the gross margin down. A 16% jump in materials cost in 2027F (taka and leaf together) cuts 2027F EPS to BDT 14.98 [11].

Government takes 82% of gross sales; each extra 2pp of tax take costs about 17% of fair value

Gross sales are mostly tax. In 2025 BATBC invoiced BDT 463bn, paid BDT 379bn of SD, VAT and health surcharge and kept BDT 83.4bn of net revenue [1 p.235]. Out of each Tk 100 of gross turnover, Tk 82.0 went straight to the government, Tk 10.7 paid for production, Tk 3.8 for overheads and the factory exit, Tk 1.7 for income tax and Tk 1.3 was left as profit [1 p.78]. Income tax is 47.5% for cigarette makers, against lower rates for other listed companies, and BATBC has asked for it to be cut [1 p.67] [1 p.261]. That is why we model net revenue, not gross.

FY2026-27 budget (June 2026). The budget kept the four-tier structure and set no specific excise [15]. It raised minimum prices per 10 sticks to Tk 62 (Low), Tk 92 (Medium, from Tk 80), Tk 160 (High, from Tk 140) and Tk 210 (Premium, from Tk 185) [12] [14]. In September the NBR lifted the Low minimum again to Tk 65 [14]. With the tax share unchanged at about 84% of the retail price (84.2% of domestic gross revenue in the first half of 2026 [2 p.14]), every price step lifts BATBC's net price per stick in proportion. We use a 84.2% tax take in the base; the bear case adds 0.4pp from 2027F.

What a further SD step costs. If a later budget adds to the tax take and BATBC passes it on in full to keep its net price per stick, retail prices rise and volume falls with the price elasticity. With a 2pp higher tax take from 2027F and an elasticity of -0.5, 2027F EPS falls from BDT 17.09 to BDT 14.36 and fair value from BDT 101 to BDT 84 (Exhibit 13). The January 2025 shock is the calibration: a 43% weighted price rise since June 2024 against a 27% fall in BATBC volume [1 p.66], about -0.6 including share loss.

Tobacco control law. The interim government's December 2025 ordinance raised the public-smoking fine from Tk 300 to Tk 2,000, set pictorial warnings at 75% of the pack (from 50%), banned sales within 100 metres of schools and hospitals and banned e-cigarettes [17]. Parliament's 2026 amendment, gazetted on 10 April, dropped the e-cigarette ban and the ban on growing tobacco on triple-crop land [18]. We found no report from two independent outlets on whether the pack-warning and point-of-sale rules survived, so we model no separate volume effect; larger warnings and the sales-distance rule would cut Low-tier volume further.

Tax claims: BDT 48.7bn, BDT 90 a share, none provided for. (1) Special Order, BDT 24.4bn. A 2017 NBR order set a higher SD for foreign-brand low-tier cigarettes; it was repealed in 2018, but a writ by Akij Tobacco led the High Court in 2020 to revive it for FY2017-18. The Appellate Division stayed that judgment in October 2020 and the appeal is pending [3 p.19]. (2) Leaf VAT/SD, BDT 20.5bn. NBR alleged in 2020 that BATBC made about 18bn undeclared sticks from unrecorded leaf; it withdrew the claim in 2021, reopened it in 2023, and the High Court twice ruled for BATBC (time-barred); a fresh demand by the Large Taxpayer Unit is pending before the High Court [3 p.20]. (3) Pre-budget sales, BDT 379 crore. NBR wants the higher June-2024 excise on stock cleared from the factory before the change but sold after; BATBC deposited 10% and the NBR Appeal Tribunal heard the appeals on 20-May-2026 without an order yet [2 p.19] [3 p.20].

We deduct the claims at judgement probabilities, undiscounted because timing is unknown: Special Order 20% (repealed order, stayed by the apex court for six years), leaf VAT 15% (two High Court rulings already for BATBC) and pre-budget sales 50% (a real dispute on where excise falls, before NBR's own tribunal). That is BDT 18 a share in the base. The bear case uses 20%, 15% and 100% (the tribunal claim treated as lost) (BDT 22 a share); the bull uses 0%, 0% and 25% (BDT 2). Losing all three would cost BDT 90 a share, more than half our base [11].

Five-year record: EPS fell from BDT 33.11 to 10.81 and ROE from 43% to 11% as tax and a factory exit hit

From 2021 to 2024 BATBC grew net revenue from BDT 74.8bn to BDT 99.4bn and held EPS at BDT 33 while the tax take hovered around 77-79% [1 p.78]. 2025 broke the pattern: net revenue fell 16%, the gross margin on net revenue fell from 44.5% to 40.4%, and one-offs took operating profit from BDT 36.3bn to BDT 16.0bn. Excluding restructuring, the EBIT margin was 27.8% against a 2021-25 median of 38.2%; ROE was 10.6% against a 5-year median of 33% [1 p.65]. We do not treat the 2021-24 margins as normal: the tax share is 5pp higher and BATBC's volume a quarter lower, so our 2027F EBIT margin of 25.2% and ROE of 14.6% sit well below that history.

Quarterly, 2026 has been uneven: EPS of BDT 3.88 in the first quarter, 3.77 in the second and 1.85 in the third, against 5.89, 1.80 and 5.65 a year earlier [3 p.3]. In the third quarter domestic sticks fell 25% to 7,322mn, net revenue fell 25% to BDT 12.6bn, gross margin was 39.6% and operating expenses rose 50% to BDT 1.9bn; net revenue per domestic stick rose to Tk 1.54 after the July price step [3 p.3] [3 p.14]. The 2025 second and fourth quarters carried the factory-exit charges (Q4 2025 was a loss of BDT 1.4bn). Nine-month 2026 EPS is BDT 9.50, so trailing EPS is BDT 6.97 and the trailing P/E 30.0x [3 p.3].

Cash is recovering: loans repaid by June 2026 and a 70% payout gives DPS of BDT 12.0 in 2027F

Factory relocation. The board closed the Mohakhali (Dhaka) factory from 1 July 2025 and moved the registered office to Savar [7]; the company calls it a forced and sudden site exit [1 p.99]. Plant was moved to Savar within 45 days [1 p.66]. The one-off cost was BDT 7,146mn: asset impairment 3,751, people 1,193, relocation 524 and third-party arrears and wages 1,678 [1 p.260]. A BDT 2,970mn programme to add capacity at Savar, funded from cash and bank loans, was approved in June 2025 [7]; capex was BDT 6.4bn in 2025 and BDT 1.6bn in the first half of 2026 [1 p.237] [2 p.5]. We model BDT 4.0bn in 2026F falling to BDT 3.0bn by 2028F, and no more restructuring.

Cash. Operating cash flow was only BDT 3.3bn in 2025 (0.57x profit) as SD was paid on stock built up for the move and inventory reached 281 days of cost of sales [1 p.237]. It has reversed: bank loans of BDT 9.7bn were repaid by June 2026 [2 p.2] and nine-month operating cash flow was BDT 42.05 a share, against BDT -21.70 a year earlier [7]. We forecast operating cash flow of BDT 14.5bn in 2026F and BDT 14.6bn in 2027F, as inventory falls to 240 days and provisions and the dividend in transit to the parent are paid. Net cash (after leases) goes from BDT -5.7bn of net debt at Dec-2025 to BDT 10.2bn of net cash at end-2027F [11].

Dividends. The cash payout was 99% of EPS in 2021, 60% in 2022, 30% in 2023, 93% in 2024 and 28% in 2025, when the dividend was 30% (BDT 3.0) [1 p.65]. The 2025 dividend was approved at the 30-Apr-2026 AGM [7]. With the parent owning 72.91% and cash rebuilding, we assume payouts of 60% for 2026F and 70% for 2027F: DPS of BDT 7.53 and BDT 11.96. No rights issue, bonus shares or capital change was announced in the last 24 months; the share count has been 540mn since the 2018 bonus [7] [1 p.253]. Bangladesh's company law sets no payout floor for a non-bank, so the payout is a board choice.

We forecast EPS of BDT 12.5 in 2026F and 17.1 in 2027F on 15% higher net revenue per stick

Each line has its own driver. Domestic gross revenue is sticks by tier times the gross price per stick; SD and VAT are gross revenue times the tax take; other revenue is leaf, contract manufacturing and exports; cost of sales is materials per stick times sticks plus fixed overhead, royalty and the cost of exported leaf; operating expenses grow with wages; tax is 50% of profit (47.5% statutory plus non-deductible items). The result: net revenue of BDT 73.6bn in 2026F, BDT 78.8bn in 2027F and BDT 82.8bn in 2028F; EPS of BDT 12.55, 17.09 and 17.96 [11].

Against what we know: nine-month 2026 EPS is BDT 9.50 [3 p.3], so 2026F needs BDT 3.05 in the fourth quarter on 11,106mn sticks (-19% y/y), below the BDT 7.93 of Q4 2024 and above the BDT 1.85 of Q3 2026. 2027F EPS of BDT 17.09 is -47% against 2024 and about 145% above trailing EPS, carried by the full-year effect of the July 2026 price step and the absence of one-offs. Bear and bull cases change drivers: the bear repeats a smaller 2025-style shock in 2027F (Low -25%, top three -5%, tax take +0.4pp, materials +8%) for 2027F EPS of BDT 11.63; the bull has gentler volume loss (Low -8%, top three +6%) for BDT 21.61. The bear valuation adds only two things to those drivers: an 8% required dividend yield and the pre-budget claim treated as lost (claims at 20/15/100%); beta, terminal margin and payout stay at base, and its justified P/E is 4.9x. The bull uses a beta of 1.0, a terminal margin 3pp higher, a justified P/E of 6.4x, a 5.4% yield and claims at 0/0/25%.

Fair value BDT 53-199: base 101 = 5.9x 2027F EPS and a 11.8% yield

DCF. Free cash flow to the firm for 2027F-2028F comes from the model; 2029F-2033F fade revenue growth to a 3% terminal rate and keep the 2028F EBIT margin of 25.1% (bear unchanged, bull +3pp). The cost of equity is 17.6%: the 9.268% 10-year Treasury bond yield of 25-Oct-2026 [10] plus a beta of 1.11 times a 7.5% equity risk premium. The beta is measured: 104 weekly returns against DSEX give 1.16 raw with a 0.66 correlation, 1.11 after Blume adjustment [8]; the bear keeps this beta and the bull uses 1.0. With no bank debt, WACC equals the cost of equity. Enterprise value at end-2026 is BDT 64.2bn, 38% of it terminal; adding cash and deducting leases gives BDT 121.3 a share [11].

P/E. BATBC's year-end trailing P/E was 22.9x (2021), 15.7x (2022), 15.7x (2023), 11.3x (2024) and 23.0x (2025) [1 p.65]. None of these is usable for 2027F: 2022 and 2023 closed at the DSE floor price of BDT 518.7, 2025's 23.0x sits on trough EPS, and 2024 is a single year priced when volume and the tax take were different. We therefore use the P/E our own inputs justify: payout x (1+g) / (cost of equity - g) = 70% x 1.03 / (17.6% - 3%) = 4.9x, in every scenario with that scenario's payout and cost of equity. Applied to 2027F EPS at end-2027 and discounted back, the base gives BDT 77. The listed multinational peers trade at a median 15.9x trailing earnings [9]. Dividend yield. The same peers yield a median 6.6% [9]; 2027F DPS of BDT 11.96 at that yield, discounted the same way, gives BDT 157. Sum of the parts does not apply: leaf export is under 12% of net turnover and there are no subsidiaries or associates [1 p.263].

Reconciling the legs. The DCF of BDT 121 is 7.1x 2027F EPS: what a 17.6% cost of equity and 3% growth pay for earnings that are mostly distributed. The justified P/E leg (4.9x) uses the same cost of equity and growth, so it differs from the DCF only in valuing the distributed earnings stream instead of free cash flow; it lands lower because 2027F EPS carries no working-capital release. For reference, the 2024 multiple of 11.3x would imply perpetual growth of about 11% at our cost of equity. The dividend-yield leg prices BATBC like its listed MNC peers. Because only the DCF is tied to our forecast and today's cost of capital, it carries 60%; the two market legs carry 20% each as cross-checks of where the market is willing to price this kind of earnings stream. The price implies, in our DCF, perpetual growth of 12%. Our base of BDT 101 equals 5.9x 2027F EPS, 0.90x 2026F book, a 11.8% 2027F dividend yield and 2.2x 2027F EBITDA, or Tk 1.24 of enterprise value per domestic stick. The probability-weighted value (25/50/25) is BDT 114.

Risks: a 2pp tax step or a 4% top-tier volume loss each cut fair value by BDT 17 or more

Each risk is run through the model by changing one driver and keeping the rest at base [11]. The largest is policy: tax, price steps and their volume effect move fair value by tens of taka. A faster price path is the main opportunity: if the June 2027 budget lifts prices 15% (top three) and 10% (Low) with the tax share unchanged, fair value rises to BDT 123.

FAQ

What is BAT Bangladesh's fair value?

We estimate BDT 53-199 a share, base 101, blending a DCF (60%), a justified P/E (20%) and a peer dividend yield (20%), less BDT 18 a share of probability-weighted tax claims [11]. The price on 29-Oct-2026 was BDT 209.1 [8].

Why did BATBC's profit fall in 2025?

The January 2025 interim budget raised cigarette excise to 83% of the retail price in every tier, volume fell 27% and the company closed its Dhaka factory at a one-off cost of BDT 7.1bn; EPS fell from BDT 32.42 to 10.81 [1 p.78] [1 p.260].

How much of BATBC's sales goes to the government?

82% of gross turnover in 2025 as SD, VAT and health surcharge, plus 47.5% income tax on profit [1 p.78] [1 p.261].

What did the FY2026-27 budget do to cigarette prices?

It raised minimum prices per 10 sticks to Tk 62 (Low), Tk 92 (Medium), Tk 160 (High) and Tk 210 (Premium); the Low minimum was raised again to Tk 65 in September 2026 [12] [14].

Who owns BAT Bangladesh?

Raleigh Investment Co. Ltd of the BAT group owns 72.91%; ICB, Sadharan Bima, the Government and BDBL together own 9.21% [1 p.253].

Which results does this report use?

The 2025 annual report and the interim statements to 30-Sep-2026. We will update the model when the 2026 annual report is filed.

What tax disputes does BATBC face?

Three NBR claims, BDT 48.7bn in all and none provided for: the 2017 Special Order SD case (BDT 24.4bn, Appellate Division), the leaf VAT/SD case (BDT 20.5bn, High Court) and the pre-budget sales differential (BDT 379 crore, NBR Appeal Tribunal) [3 p.19] [3 p.20].

Sources

1. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Integrated Annual Report 2025 (year to 31-Dec-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
2. BAT Bangladesh un-audited interim financial statements, six months to 30-Jun-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
3. BAT Bangladesh un-audited interim financial statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
4. BAT Bangladesh un-audited interim financial statements, three months to 31-Mar-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
5. BAT Bangladesh un-audited interim financial statements, nine months to 30-Sep-2025 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
6. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Integrated Annual Report 2024 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
7. DSE announcements for BATBC, Nov-2024 to Oct-2026 (Q3 2026 results 29-Oct-2026; dividend 03-Mar-2026; Savar investment 26-Jun-2025; Dhaka factory closure 19-Jun-2025; Kushtia GLTP 02-Nov-2025) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
8. AnalystBro price data (TradingView feed): DSE:BATBC daily and weekly bars, DSEX weekly, to 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
9. AnalystBro screener: BATBC and DSE MNC consumer peers, close 29-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
10. Bangladesh Bank, 10-year Treasury bond auction cut-off yield 9.268%, 25-Oct-2026 · link · accessed 2026-10-31
11. AnalystBro model for this report (workbook tabs below) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
12. The Business Standard, 11-Jun-2026: Budget FY27, key measures and takeaways (cigarette minimum prices, track and trace) · link · accessed 2026-10-31
13. The Daily Star, 23-Jun-2026: Unrounded cigarette prices to cost govt Tk 4,000cr: PPRC · link · accessed 2026-10-31
14. The Daily Star, 17-Sep-2026: Govt raises low-end cigarette prices again · link · accessed 2026-10-31
15. The Financial Express, 29-Sep-2026: Tobacco tax policy needs stronger evidence as cigarette market shifts upward · link · accessed 2026-10-31
16. The Daily Star, 20-May-2026: Tax hike, competition from illicit cigarettes choke BATBC sales · link · accessed 2026-10-31
17. The Daily Star, 24-Dec-2025: Govt passes stricter tobacco ordinance · link · accessed 2026-10-31
18. The Daily Star, 21-Apr-2026: BNP walks back its tobacco control promises · link · accessed 2026-10-31
19. The Daily Star, 23-Jan-2022: Japan Tobacco accuses BATB of anti-competitive practices · link · accessed 2026-10-31